Cheltenham Festival - Gold Cup

Cheltenham Festival (Day 4, Race 4)

Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.20)

Picks: Imperical Commander (win) and Pandorama (each/way)

Carruthers: Impressed with his easy front running victories as a novice, running creditably in RSA Chase when bad mistake put paid to his chances 3 out; Went on from that last season, coming fourth in this last year and second in Totesport Bowl; Has run well again this year but needs ground to come right and exposed.

China Rock: Reached a high level over fences last season and has improved this year too, winning a couple of very smart Grade 2 chases before running third to Kauto Star two starts ago; This too hard.

Denman: Outstanding Gold Cup winner of 2008 who had heart trouble which has kept him to slightly below par performances since then; Put in one of the outstanding performances of modern times to win this last year off a mark of 174, producing outstanding jumping & front running display; Didn’t reach same form last season despite being good second in this very race; Showed it still remains when 15l third giving almost two stone to two progressive young chasers in 2010 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury; Tubed since, primed for the moment and cannot be ingored.

Imperial Commander: Marked himself as the new star of staying chasers when romping away with last year’s renewal, beating Denman by 7 lengths and advantage only increasing with distance; Only run once this season but best fresh and the one horse with the least flaws in credentials.

Kauto Star: Confirmed himself as one of outstanding chasers of modern time when trashing 2009 Gold Cup field by 13 lengths, becoming only horse to regain Cheltenham Gold Cup in process and looked set for the three timer after a demolition job in King George(one of highest rated performances ever) only to fall in last year’s contest, an earlier mistake having taken its toll; Came back seemingly as good as ever when beating Sizing Europe at Down Royal but well beaten behind Long Run; Walsh back on board will help and wasn’t at peak thanks to blood infection that day but still hard to trust, despite all the talent.

Kempes: Very good hurdler who won a Grade 2 over fences and was in front of some useful types when second in the Champion Novice over 2m at Punchestown; Has taken the time to get the hang on things over fences but did it good style in a Grade 2 and landed biggest success when comprehensively beating stablemate at Punchestown Festival; Has run two excellent races this season, the first when making the frame over a trip a mile short of his best and the second being unseated when just about to get into the Lexus Chase last month; Made amends when winning Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown last time and one of livelier outsiders.

Long Run: Came here with plenty of experience from France, and high quality experience at that as winner of three of his four starts over fences (impressive success in the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Gillois); Hacked up by 13 lengths from next time out winner Tazbar in Feltham Chase,  and did same again when easy winner of Kingmaker Novices’ Chase; Made significant jumping errors on both wins and unable to get away with them when fading late on in RSA; Was widely expected to win Paddy Power Gold Cup off mark of 158 but a sloppy round of jumping led to a lacklustre third place but fulfilled promise when delivering devastating performance in the  King George Chase, coming home clear of Kauto Star and Riverside Theatre; Easily the best of the young brigade here.

Midnight Chase: Has improved 36lb on official ratings in last 12 months, winning six of his last seven outings with his record here reading 231111; May still be improving, and not discounted but opposition he’s faced to date bears little comparison to his main rivals here.

Neptune Collonges: Has been rather underrated in presence of Denman and Kauto Star, having come third in Gold Cup behind Denman and excellent second behind Kauto 2 years ago before injury struck; Was brought down in Hennessy and could never recover from being hampered in handicap, but showed he trains ability at least when winning Argento Chase, front running them all into the ground.

Pandorama: Winner of 9 from 11 starts over rules, the only defeat (when completed) coming to Ballymore properties winner Mikael D’Haugenet over hurdles; Unbeaten in three last season as a novice chaser, simply running away with the Drinmore Novice Chase; Made much harder work of landing the Knight Frank Novice Chase but jumped well in main and did very well to get up and beat RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty after mistake at last; Had a luckless run in the Hennessey, getting all but brought down at the second and being left so far behind that he was pulled up at the eighth; Put that right with storming romp home in Lexus and every chance here in open race; If he handles ground, much better than odds suggest.

Tidal Bay: Never really went on after hugely promising novice season but showed good promise over hurdles, winning the Cleeve; Failed to build on that with a lacklustre seventh at Cheltenham but right back to form when coming less than two lengths second to Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase; Same story of running style again when second to Neptune Collonges in Argento but will be able to pick up a lot of beaten horses late on and that makes him a contender; Keener he is the better.

Weird Al: Unbeaten over fences, having marked himself down a major RSA Chase candidate before injury with 2 impressive wins at Cheltenham before winning Towton Novice’s Chase; Came back from injury to dead heat with Little Josh in excellent run considering that he was running over a trip too short (2m4f) and was giving 6lbs to the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Little Josh;Better than Hennessy run shows although he's still got some way to go.

What A Friend: Impressive in his novice season, winning 3 out of 4 starts (not ready for the RSA at Cheltenham); Took giant steps forward on only 3 starts last season, starting with second to stablemate Denman in the Hennessy before landing Grade 1’s at Leopardstown and Aintree (where a below-form Imperial Commander unseated); Disappointing on comeback in Betfair Chase when holding head high but reported breathing problem; Attitude cost hime Grade 2 at Newbury last time and while he wants this ground and pace, won’t be up to winning.

VERDICT: The event we’ve been waiting for where the old hands face off against the young upstarts. From a strictly annalistic point of view the horse with the least flaws is IMPERIAL COMMANDER and I’d want to have him onside. The only negative regarding his chances is the fact he’s not run this year, although he’s had plenty of work recently. Past champions Kauto Star and Denman are given respect (Denman is preferred of the two) although there are reasons to oppose both and at the prices they could just be too short. If there’s a young horse ready to win, it’s most likely to be Long Run. Jumping issues are a thing of the past with him and the only concerns that still remain are those of course form (appeared not to stay three miles when third in the RSA) and his tender age (no 6 – yr old has won since 1963, although how many have tried is another thing and how many as good as him is debateable). One horse that I couldn’t leave alone at the prices was PANDORAMA, who’s won 9 from 11 and would be half the price if he’d won on good ground before. Of the rest, I couldn’t have Midnight Chase although he’d have to be given a chance and Kempes is as good a choice as any. Don’t forget any also rans although Tidal Bay is interesting based on his running style, although it's likely he'll be too far behind to win as he showed behind Neptune Collonges last time.