2.00 Cheltenham
Tigmi Travel Dipper Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £14,252
Pick: Reve De Sivola (each/way)
Billie Magern: Made hay in the summer jumping circuit over fences, winning 4 times on the bounce; Has since struggled to really hold his own in some good races, having been well beaten behind Chicago Grey and then coming fifth at the Open meeting; Hard to fancy.
Cois Farraig: Performed with credit when second to high class Nicky Henderson pair Lush Life and Oscar Whisky, and jumped well and shaped as if he’d be better for the race when third on chase debut at Ascot; Took Grade 2 Chase at Newbury on his last start but was fortunate that Sprit River fell and Celestial Halo didn’t fancy it; Can’t be ruled out totally but this again will be harder.
Reve De Sivola: Made hay over the last 2 seasons as a Novice Hurdler, coming sixth in the Triumph and second in the Neptune Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival; Wasn’t given a hard time after belting the first on his chasing debut but improved on that when getting better of useful novices Rebel Du Maquis and Whishfull Thinking last time and has as much potential as anything in the field.
Hell’s Bay: Ran with credit when giving class hurdler Time For Rupert 5lbs when second in very good novice chase at here at the Open Meeting; Appeared to excel himself that day and showed effects of that draining run when well beaten third at Newbury.
Master Of The Hall: 3 from 5 since appearing in Britain, and looked promising when winning at Sandown and Newbury on his first two starts over hurdles; Wasn't himself when last seen over hurdles in February but made a good chasing debut (last fence error apart) at Ascot; Has scope to go far chasing.
Merdermit: Best of these over hurdles, coming a close second in the Supreme Novice to add to two other Grade 2 wins and had made rather poor start to chasing before winning a good event in style at Plumpton last time; Has serious claims, especially if improving, but this by far his toughest test and trip may not be helpful.
Have You Seen Me: Didn’t do all that much over hurdles in the context of this field, but nearly beat a Grade 2 winner (Bouggler) giving him 3lbs last time and not discounted if building on that.
Mr Thriller: Touted as serious prospect for Graded hurdles after running out a 15-length winner of the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle and then beating Champion Hurdle fifth at Haydock before ground and a mark of 160 stopped those ambitions; Was going to lay down a good challenge to Time For Rupert when falling 2 out on his chasing/seasonal debut. a good effort considering that this isn’t his favoured course; This a tougher test again but yard in form and has every chance.
Othermix: Never really achieved much over fences last year, his best effort being a second in the Jewson during a campaign blotched by jumping errors; Much the same story this season (albeit in decent races) and has it to do here.
Ranjobaje: Ran to a useful level over hurdles last season, coming into a well handicapped horse in Notus De La Tour and suffering a rough passage when third in a very competitive handicap hurdle; Has a lot to do on tough debut, and needs to improve for new yard.
Simarian: Has returned over fences in pleasing style considering that he lost his way badly over hurdles, coming second to a far better rival in Cockney Trucker on his first start and then winning in workmanlike style last time; Has it to do.
Sang Bleu: Won on the Flat at Chateaubriant in September and within a month made a successful start to his hurdling career at Auteuil; Only ran twice over hurdles but no shame in being passed aside by Me Voici on debut (Finale Hurdle) and good effort considering he hit 1st and 4th to give 8lbs and a beating to Starts Du Granite on his last run; Should improve massively for first chase start and needs considering.
Sway: Prolific and classy sort over hurdles in France, winning three listed events before coming down when cantering in a Grade 2; Only just realising that potential In Britain, having won her last start with consummate ease; Has a fantastic racing weight but this far harder than anything she’s tried before.
VERDICT: A real quality race. Merdermit put up his best chasing performance last time out, but this is a much stiffer test and this trip may cause him real problems. REVE DE SIVOLA beat 2 really useful rivals here last time and may well improve again for that. Master Of The Hall is a top notch prospect, while Mr Thriller was going sweetly until falling last time out. Sway is interesting off a featherweight but Sang Bleu holds more appeal.
Friday, 31 December 2010
victorchandler.com Chase 2010
2.35 Cheltenham
victorchandler.com Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £22,804
Picks: Taranis (each/way), Hey Big Spender (each/way)
Taranis: Horse of immense quality, as he has won the Ryanair Chase and the James Nicholson Chase, both coming nearly 4 years ago, and was brilliantly produced to land Argento Chase from a 3 year layoff; Ran well for a long way in the Hennessy before fading (fitness and maybe trip to blame) and holds an excellent chance having been dropped 7lbs for that here in less testing (albeit quality) field.
Hey Big Spender: Was really going places last year and romped to wins at Newbury (over Fistral Beach) and here on Trials Day; Didn’t quite go on from that after unseating in the Jewson (Fell behind Mad Max at Aintree), so really good effort to win at Carlisle on his return; Was going well for a long way before tiring in the Hennssy (the fastest run major race of the season so far) and is very interesting back at an ideal course and distance for him.
Tartak: Has the class for bigger events than this, having come fourth in the Melling Chase last season after a series of disappointing efforts; Reappeared with poor run in the Old Roan Chase and while he won the Peterbrough last time, he would have been second if Twist Magic had stayed up Breedzbreeze had the benefit of a run; Impossible to ignore from handicapping perspective although his jumping needs to improve.
Imsingingtheblues: Capable novice handicapper last season who looked like an outside contender for the Arkle when winning competitive handicap at Doncaster for Paul Nicholls and was probably feeling the effect of three excellent efforts for new yard when badly beaten over 2 miles last time here; Hard to see him having recovered from that effort.
Knockara Beau: Tough and consistent hurdler who posted a huge new best when fifth in the Ballymore hurdler at the Cheltenham festival; Hasn’t posted a bad effort over fences yet and based on his form (just behind Burton Port in 2 big races last season) would be very tough to beat in handicaps, but needs far more than this.
Mahogany Blaze: Thoroughly capable horse on his day who has been placed in very good races but has jumping frailties and this looks too much.
Can’t Buy Time: Given a vintage ride to land this last year after a series of disappointing efforts and only return here 1lb higher, largely due to another few rounds of disappointing efforts; This his ideal trip and no reason why he couldn’t run well.
Mister Mcgoldrick: One of most popular chasers in training, having been on the go for 14 years starting today, and was in sterling form when winning by 19 lengths last time (third in this last year); Could do anything and let’s hope he gets round fine.
Carole’s Legacy: Classy mare who was second to Quevga in the Mares Hurdle at the festival; Unexposed very fences, having won three of her four starts (other in a Mare’s Chase final); Impressive when beating Banjaxed Girl at Kempton last time and gets to race off a mark nearly 10lbs lower but was beaten off it last time she raced over fences and this is a very tough task.
Pickamus: Won three out of his four starts last season, making up into a very useful chaser; Hasn’t done nearly as well this year, and looks vulnerable off this mark in this company.
Door Boy: Won first two starts over fences, getting the better of Little Josh and Cappa Bleu at Aintree before winning comfortably giving away weight against vastly inferior opposition; Looked well beaten when falling in Jewson Novice’s Chase and while case can be made on some form, jumping cracked in Jewson; Pulled up in Paddy Power and this doesn’t look any easier.
Moon Over Miami: Unreliable customer who was gaining first win since 2007 when fortunate scorer at Ffos Las in November; Hard to fancy here even with an attractive mark as jumping will be tested.
Five Dream: Ran well to be sixth in the Galway Plate, and ran second in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen; Well beaten by Mathui at Ascot last time but wouldn’t be weighted out of things here with good rider on board.
Quito De Tresor: Has scored 4 times this year and had a previous career best in the book when romping home by 16 lengths at Stratford; Well beaten by Dave Dream when stepped up in class here and has it harder here.
Patman Du Charmil: Been out of form for ages and hard to fancy strongly here.
VERDICT: It’s hard not to fancy Tartak at the weights given his best efforts, but he was fortunate last time and his jumping under pressure still fails to convince totally. Carole’s Legacy should go well but has it harder than usual and the handicapper has been very lenient for dropping TARANIS 7lbs for not fully finishing in the Hennesssy and back over a more suitable trip, he should do well. HEY BIG SPENDER may have been tailed off when falling at the last in the Hennessy but he’s had a bit of time to get over that effort (fastest run 3 mile chase of the season so far) and is interesting at this trip if staying up.
victorchandler.com Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £22,804
Picks: Taranis (each/way), Hey Big Spender (each/way)
Taranis: Horse of immense quality, as he has won the Ryanair Chase and the James Nicholson Chase, both coming nearly 4 years ago, and was brilliantly produced to land Argento Chase from a 3 year layoff; Ran well for a long way in the Hennessy before fading (fitness and maybe trip to blame) and holds an excellent chance having been dropped 7lbs for that here in less testing (albeit quality) field.
Hey Big Spender: Was really going places last year and romped to wins at Newbury (over Fistral Beach) and here on Trials Day; Didn’t quite go on from that after unseating in the Jewson (Fell behind Mad Max at Aintree), so really good effort to win at Carlisle on his return; Was going well for a long way before tiring in the Hennssy (the fastest run major race of the season so far) and is very interesting back at an ideal course and distance for him.
Tartak: Has the class for bigger events than this, having come fourth in the Melling Chase last season after a series of disappointing efforts; Reappeared with poor run in the Old Roan Chase and while he won the Peterbrough last time, he would have been second if Twist Magic had stayed up Breedzbreeze had the benefit of a run; Impossible to ignore from handicapping perspective although his jumping needs to improve.
Imsingingtheblues: Capable novice handicapper last season who looked like an outside contender for the Arkle when winning competitive handicap at Doncaster for Paul Nicholls and was probably feeling the effect of three excellent efforts for new yard when badly beaten over 2 miles last time here; Hard to see him having recovered from that effort.
Knockara Beau: Tough and consistent hurdler who posted a huge new best when fifth in the Ballymore hurdler at the Cheltenham festival; Hasn’t posted a bad effort over fences yet and based on his form (just behind Burton Port in 2 big races last season) would be very tough to beat in handicaps, but needs far more than this.
Mahogany Blaze: Thoroughly capable horse on his day who has been placed in very good races but has jumping frailties and this looks too much.
Can’t Buy Time: Given a vintage ride to land this last year after a series of disappointing efforts and only return here 1lb higher, largely due to another few rounds of disappointing efforts; This his ideal trip and no reason why he couldn’t run well.
Mister Mcgoldrick: One of most popular chasers in training, having been on the go for 14 years starting today, and was in sterling form when winning by 19 lengths last time (third in this last year); Could do anything and let’s hope he gets round fine.
Carole’s Legacy: Classy mare who was second to Quevga in the Mares Hurdle at the festival; Unexposed very fences, having won three of her four starts (other in a Mare’s Chase final); Impressive when beating Banjaxed Girl at Kempton last time and gets to race off a mark nearly 10lbs lower but was beaten off it last time she raced over fences and this is a very tough task.
Pickamus: Won three out of his four starts last season, making up into a very useful chaser; Hasn’t done nearly as well this year, and looks vulnerable off this mark in this company.
Door Boy: Won first two starts over fences, getting the better of Little Josh and Cappa Bleu at Aintree before winning comfortably giving away weight against vastly inferior opposition; Looked well beaten when falling in Jewson Novice’s Chase and while case can be made on some form, jumping cracked in Jewson; Pulled up in Paddy Power and this doesn’t look any easier.
Moon Over Miami: Unreliable customer who was gaining first win since 2007 when fortunate scorer at Ffos Las in November; Hard to fancy here even with an attractive mark as jumping will be tested.
Five Dream: Ran well to be sixth in the Galway Plate, and ran second in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen; Well beaten by Mathui at Ascot last time but wouldn’t be weighted out of things here with good rider on board.
Quito De Tresor: Has scored 4 times this year and had a previous career best in the book when romping home by 16 lengths at Stratford; Well beaten by Dave Dream when stepped up in class here and has it harder here.
Patman Du Charmil: Been out of form for ages and hard to fancy strongly here.
VERDICT: It’s hard not to fancy Tartak at the weights given his best efforts, but he was fortunate last time and his jumping under pressure still fails to convince totally. Carole’s Legacy should go well but has it harder than usual and the handicapper has been very lenient for dropping TARANIS 7lbs for not fully finishing in the Hennesssy and back over a more suitable trip, he should do well. HEY BIG SPENDER may have been tailed off when falling at the last in the Hennessy but he’s had a bit of time to get over that effort (fastest run 3 mile chase of the season so far) and is interesting at this trip if staying up.
Cheltenham & Three Counties Race Club Hurdle
12.55 Cheltenham
Cheltenham & Three Counties Race Club Hurdle (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £12,52
Pick: Celestial Halo (win)
Barizan: Enjoyed tremendous juvenile hurdling season ( 6 wins), nearly pulling off one of great front running performances in Triumph Hurdle and romping home at Punchestown festival; Hasn’t come back as good though, getting thrashed by Clerk’s Choice first time out, poor in Elite Hurdle and only one paced at Haydock last time.
Karabak: Progressed well last season, scoring emphatically prior to fine second to Mikael D'Haguenet at Cheltenham in Ballymore Novice’s Hurdle before being well beaten by Zayanar in this race last year; Got three miles really well when running great race to finish second to Big Buck’s in Long Walk hurdle and also to finish fourth in World Hurdle, so disappointing that he bombed at Punchestown afterwards; Well beaten behind Silviniaco Conti in Ascot Hurdle but back to best in Reelkeel Hurdle and has every chance even on worse terms with runner up and third.
Any Given Day: Took well to hurdling last term and made full use of race fitness when runaway winner of Silver Trophy at Chepstow; Good fourth in Greatwood and excelled himself last time when second in the Reelkeel; Weighted to turn tables and has to have every chance.
Celestial Halo: High class hurdler (second and fourth in Champion Hurdles) who was the top rated chasing recruit this season until a fall and lacklustre third ruined things on that front; Ran a perfectly satisfactory race in the Reelkeel Hurdle and weighted to reverse form with Karabak and Any Given Day, so has to be considered.
Duke Of Lucca: Got better with experience last season ,ending up with close enough seconds behind Peddlers Cross and Reve De Sivola at Aintree and Punchestown festivals; Ran poorly on reappearance but has come fourth on both starts since and has capacity to make an impact here if running to best.
Oscar Whisky: Made smooth progress as a novice last season, winning his first 2 starts with contemptuous ease and then running fourth in the Supreme Novice Hurdle despite inexperience; Form of that race has stood up in general and gets handy weight concessions from stayers here, although this trip is an unkown (shapes like he’ll stay).
Secret Dancer: Romped home in maiden hurdle and held his own pretty well when then stepped up hugely into Graded company last year, but has ran only once since and been unplaced, so left aside here.
VERDICT: A fascinating race. The reappearance of Oscar Whisky adds extra lustre to the race, although it’s hard to know how he’ll run over 2m4f after a long break. Karabak looked back to something like his best when winning the Reelkeel last time, although on better terms he’ll have his work cut out against Any Given Day and CELESTIAL HALO, who shaped nicely on his first start over hurdles this season.
Cheltenham & Three Counties Race Club Hurdle (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £12,52
Pick: Celestial Halo (win)
Barizan: Enjoyed tremendous juvenile hurdling season ( 6 wins), nearly pulling off one of great front running performances in Triumph Hurdle and romping home at Punchestown festival; Hasn’t come back as good though, getting thrashed by Clerk’s Choice first time out, poor in Elite Hurdle and only one paced at Haydock last time.
Karabak: Progressed well last season, scoring emphatically prior to fine second to Mikael D'Haguenet at Cheltenham in Ballymore Novice’s Hurdle before being well beaten by Zayanar in this race last year; Got three miles really well when running great race to finish second to Big Buck’s in Long Walk hurdle and also to finish fourth in World Hurdle, so disappointing that he bombed at Punchestown afterwards; Well beaten behind Silviniaco Conti in Ascot Hurdle but back to best in Reelkeel Hurdle and has every chance even on worse terms with runner up and third.
Any Given Day: Took well to hurdling last term and made full use of race fitness when runaway winner of Silver Trophy at Chepstow; Good fourth in Greatwood and excelled himself last time when second in the Reelkeel; Weighted to turn tables and has to have every chance.
Celestial Halo: High class hurdler (second and fourth in Champion Hurdles) who was the top rated chasing recruit this season until a fall and lacklustre third ruined things on that front; Ran a perfectly satisfactory race in the Reelkeel Hurdle and weighted to reverse form with Karabak and Any Given Day, so has to be considered.
Duke Of Lucca: Got better with experience last season ,ending up with close enough seconds behind Peddlers Cross and Reve De Sivola at Aintree and Punchestown festivals; Ran poorly on reappearance but has come fourth on both starts since and has capacity to make an impact here if running to best.
Oscar Whisky: Made smooth progress as a novice last season, winning his first 2 starts with contemptuous ease and then running fourth in the Supreme Novice Hurdle despite inexperience; Form of that race has stood up in general and gets handy weight concessions from stayers here, although this trip is an unkown (shapes like he’ll stay).
Secret Dancer: Romped home in maiden hurdle and held his own pretty well when then stepped up hugely into Graded company last year, but has ran only once since and been unplaced, so left aside here.
VERDICT: A fascinating race. The reappearance of Oscar Whisky adds extra lustre to the race, although it’s hard to know how he’ll run over 2m4f after a long break. Karabak looked back to something like his best when winning the Reelkeel last time, although on better terms he’ll have his work cut out against Any Given Day and CELESTIAL HALO, who shaped nicely on his first start over hurdles this season.
Racing Today - New Year's Eve 2010
Firstly, i'd like to take the time out to thank those who have read and retweeted blog links to the Vic Page this year. It's been much appreciated and the target is to double readers in 2011.
Secondly, I would like to wish everyone reading this a Happy New Year for 2011. Let's hope it goes better than 2010, although the likes of Tony McCoy won't agree.
In the opener (12.10) Nigel Twiston Davies runs MAXEDLAS who was runner up twice in France and looks to have a big opportunity to get off the mark here.
In the second division of the maiden hurdle (12.40) while Herdsman will be well liked, TORNEDO BOB ran into one that was just too good in Kid Cassidy at Newbury first time out and can put that experience to good use.
On paper, the Beginners' Chase (1.10) could be a match between Silent Cliche, who's good enough to win this if all goes well but I've got a feeling that GLENWOOD KNIGHT is the better horse and will be better suited by the trip.
16/1 is a huge price about PALM READER who was very much in touch when falling on his comeback and he should strip fitter for that, so he rates each/way value in the 2.10.
Secondly, I would like to wish everyone reading this a Happy New Year for 2011. Let's hope it goes better than 2010, although the likes of Tony McCoy won't agree.
In the opener (12.10) Nigel Twiston Davies runs MAXEDLAS who was runner up twice in France and looks to have a big opportunity to get off the mark here.
In the second division of the maiden hurdle (12.40) while Herdsman will be well liked, TORNEDO BOB ran into one that was just too good in Kid Cassidy at Newbury first time out and can put that experience to good use.
On paper, the Beginners' Chase (1.10) could be a match between Silent Cliche, who's good enough to win this if all goes well but I've got a feeling that GLENWOOD KNIGHT is the better horse and will be better suited by the trip.
16/1 is a huge price about PALM READER who was very much in touch when falling on his comeback and he should strip fitter for that, so he rates each/way value in the 2.10.
Wednesday, 29 December 2010
Leopardstown Christmas Festival - Bord Na Mona Chase
2.00 Leopardstown
Bord na Mona With Nature Novice Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €58,500
Pick: Miakel D’Haugenet
Gates Of Rome: Very good over hurdles last season, coming second to some useful types giving away weight and also winning by 19 lengths; Badly in need of the experience first time out and brushed aside when second to Realt Dubh in the Craddockstown Novice Chase, and has it harder here.
Loosen My Load: Made very smart start to life under rules last year, winning his first three races before running a good race on his first start over fences behind solid Fosters Cross and won Grade 2 over hurdles at Cheltenham a year ago but struggled in face of stiff tasks afterwards; Started flawlessly in 3 from 3 over fences though, running away with Graded event; Travelled strongly in strong Grade 2 at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting but was tapped for toe in home straight (under penalty); Was giving large amount of weight to a decent pair of horses (winner favourite for Arkle) that day and major player if handling ground.
Mikael D’Haugenet: developed really well over hurdles in 2008/9, winning all six starts after being brought over from France, including Grade 1s at Navan, Cheltenham (a very strong renewal of the Ballymore, beating Hennessy Gold Cup winner Diamond Harry and Karabak) and Punchestown, before he was injured; Looked set to win Drinmore on return from injury but for overpitching on the last fence, and the clear standout here with this trip not a problem.
Noble Prince: A strong travelling, fluent jumper who’s remarkable versatile as he showed when fourth in the World Series Hurdle before landing beginner’s chase with ease at Punchestown in October; Should be right there.
Pay The Bounty: Made a very taking debut over fences but subsequently disappointed when sent off 11/4 for a Grade 3 at Limerick and this much tougher; Failed to given 7lbs to a talented horse in Quadrillion last time but this seems to taxing.
Realt Dubh: Useful over hurdles and beginning to improve over fences, landing his debut with ease and seeming set to win Grade 3 (travelling well, disputing) when falling; Made amends with Craddockstown Chase win but outsped by Mikael D’Haugenet before the last in Drinmore and hard to see form reversal even at better trip.
Saludos: held on grimly from Asigh Pearl and stablemate Coole River to win a war of attrition at Punchestown in listed contest before close second in Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at this meeting last year (went on to come another close second in valuable event); Looked dependent on being able to dominate when in need of the experience first time over fences, and while he’s improved since to win well for a shrewd yard, he has it a lot tougher.
Torphichen: Very useful flat sort who was highly fancied for the Supreme Novice Hurdle 2 season ago (has disappointed since); Bumped into a decent horse in shape of Quel Esprit first time out over fences and was impressive in winning his novices chase last time, so not to be discounted.
VERDICT: The drop back in trip should prove no hinderance to MIKAEL D’HAUGENET, who looked set to win the Drinmore Novice Chase before falling at the last and he looks too good for the smart yardstick Loosen My Load and the promising Noble Price.
Bord na Mona With Nature Novice Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €58,500
Pick: Miakel D’Haugenet
Gates Of Rome: Very good over hurdles last season, coming second to some useful types giving away weight and also winning by 19 lengths; Badly in need of the experience first time out and brushed aside when second to Realt Dubh in the Craddockstown Novice Chase, and has it harder here.
Loosen My Load: Made very smart start to life under rules last year, winning his first three races before running a good race on his first start over fences behind solid Fosters Cross and won Grade 2 over hurdles at Cheltenham a year ago but struggled in face of stiff tasks afterwards; Started flawlessly in 3 from 3 over fences though, running away with Graded event; Travelled strongly in strong Grade 2 at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting but was tapped for toe in home straight (under penalty); Was giving large amount of weight to a decent pair of horses (winner favourite for Arkle) that day and major player if handling ground.
Mikael D’Haugenet: developed really well over hurdles in 2008/9, winning all six starts after being brought over from France, including Grade 1s at Navan, Cheltenham (a very strong renewal of the Ballymore, beating Hennessy Gold Cup winner Diamond Harry and Karabak) and Punchestown, before he was injured; Looked set to win Drinmore on return from injury but for overpitching on the last fence, and the clear standout here with this trip not a problem.
Noble Prince: A strong travelling, fluent jumper who’s remarkable versatile as he showed when fourth in the World Series Hurdle before landing beginner’s chase with ease at Punchestown in October; Should be right there.
Pay The Bounty: Made a very taking debut over fences but subsequently disappointed when sent off 11/4 for a Grade 3 at Limerick and this much tougher; Failed to given 7lbs to a talented horse in Quadrillion last time but this seems to taxing.
Realt Dubh: Useful over hurdles and beginning to improve over fences, landing his debut with ease and seeming set to win Grade 3 (travelling well, disputing) when falling; Made amends with Craddockstown Chase win but outsped by Mikael D’Haugenet before the last in Drinmore and hard to see form reversal even at better trip.
Saludos: held on grimly from Asigh Pearl and stablemate Coole River to win a war of attrition at Punchestown in listed contest before close second in Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at this meeting last year (went on to come another close second in valuable event); Looked dependent on being able to dominate when in need of the experience first time over fences, and while he’s improved since to win well for a shrewd yard, he has it a lot tougher.
Torphichen: Very useful flat sort who was highly fancied for the Supreme Novice Hurdle 2 season ago (has disappointed since); Bumped into a decent horse in shape of Quel Esprit first time out over fences and was impressive in winning his novices chase last time, so not to be discounted.
VERDICT: The drop back in trip should prove no hinderance to MIKAEL D’HAUGENET, who looked set to win the Drinmore Novice Chase before falling at the last and he looks too good for the smart yardstick Loosen My Load and the promising Noble Price.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival - Juvenile Hurdle
1.00 Leopardstown
Bord na Mona Fire Magic Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner €32,500
Pick: Kalann (each/way)
Toner D’Oudaries: Comes here as the most experienced horse here and the form horse at that, having won the Grade 3 Bar One Hurdle at Fairyhouse last time out; Did it in good style, and has 4 of the 10 horses here held on that form (they are reopposing); One to beat.
Accidental Outlaw: Made natural progression from hurdles debut to win well at Punchestown but blew a good opportunity last time and the third from that race has been well beaten by Toner D’Oudaries since.
Al Dafa: Has won 2 out of four starts, but both of those in weak races and well beaten last time; Looks to have a mountain to climb on all known form, with the booking of Paul Carberry a bonus.
Days Ahead: Closely matched with Silas Mariner on their Punchestown form but has already run 6 times this year and looked badly exposed when fifth behind Toner D’Oudaries last time.
Fearless Falcon: Hasn’t been out of the first three since his hurdling debut, and is closely matched with Toner D’Oudaries on their last meeting; Should finish closer but still has to improve to win.
Kalann: Very smart on the flat, coming fourth, third and then wining a decent race at Dundalk and made most pleasing hurdles debut possible when second to Toner D’Oudaries at Fairyhouse last time; Is now 3lbs better off a surely likely to improve for that, so has to rate a major player.
Sailors Warn: Probably improved on his debut third when fourth behind Tonder D’Oudaries at Fairyhouse last time, but that form leaves him well held here.
Kirstal Komet: Won well last time when improving for her debut (had to give 8lbs to the runner up) but held by Narima on debut form.
Narmina: Useful in France, coming third in 2 decent races over the AW and coming a decent runner up on her hurdles debut; May be a serious contender.
What A Charm: Very useful on the flat, verging on listed class at both 2 and three before coming second in the Irish Cesarawitch before winning the November Handicap here in really good style; Has every chance if jumping well here.
VERDICT: What A Charm holds every chance if jumping well, and she wouldn’t need to be special to land this first time out. Toner D’Oudaries is the form horse here but KALANN wasn’t too far behind him first time out and can use that experience to turn around the tables here.
Bord na Mona Fire Magic Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner €32,500
Pick: Kalann (each/way)
Toner D’Oudaries: Comes here as the most experienced horse here and the form horse at that, having won the Grade 3 Bar One Hurdle at Fairyhouse last time out; Did it in good style, and has 4 of the 10 horses here held on that form (they are reopposing); One to beat.
Accidental Outlaw: Made natural progression from hurdles debut to win well at Punchestown but blew a good opportunity last time and the third from that race has been well beaten by Toner D’Oudaries since.
Al Dafa: Has won 2 out of four starts, but both of those in weak races and well beaten last time; Looks to have a mountain to climb on all known form, with the booking of Paul Carberry a bonus.
Days Ahead: Closely matched with Silas Mariner on their Punchestown form but has already run 6 times this year and looked badly exposed when fifth behind Toner D’Oudaries last time.
Fearless Falcon: Hasn’t been out of the first three since his hurdling debut, and is closely matched with Toner D’Oudaries on their last meeting; Should finish closer but still has to improve to win.
Kalann: Very smart on the flat, coming fourth, third and then wining a decent race at Dundalk and made most pleasing hurdles debut possible when second to Toner D’Oudaries at Fairyhouse last time; Is now 3lbs better off a surely likely to improve for that, so has to rate a major player.
Sailors Warn: Probably improved on his debut third when fourth behind Tonder D’Oudaries at Fairyhouse last time, but that form leaves him well held here.
Kirstal Komet: Won well last time when improving for her debut (had to give 8lbs to the runner up) but held by Narima on debut form.
Narmina: Useful in France, coming third in 2 decent races over the AW and coming a decent runner up on her hurdles debut; May be a serious contender.
What A Charm: Very useful on the flat, verging on listed class at both 2 and three before coming second in the Irish Cesarawitch before winning the November Handicap here in really good style; Has every chance if jumping well here.
VERDICT: What A Charm holds every chance if jumping well, and she wouldn’t need to be special to land this first time out. Toner D’Oudaries is the form horse here but KALANN wasn’t too far behind him first time out and can use that experience to turn around the tables here.
Tuesday, 28 December 2010
Leopardstown Christmas Festival - Dial A-Bet-Chase 2010
1.25 Leopardstown
Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+)
2m1f
Pick: Big Zeb (win)
Big Zeb: Has always had talent to produce great performances (as he showed when he should have beaten Masterminded but for a horrible mistake at the last 2 years ago) and finally put it all together when winning 4 out of his 5 starts last year, capped off by a devastating six length win in the Champion Chase; Retuned in good style when easily beating Golden Silver in the Fortria Chase, and is the clear standout here.
Captain Cee Bee: Hasn't had much luck since landing the Grade 1 Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 08’ but obviously top class and put together a slick round of jumping when winning Champion Novices Chase at Punchestown, salvaging a deserved success from his debut chasing season after a very poor round of jumping (admittedly with a burst blood vessel) led to an 8th place finish in the Arkle; Made light work of easy return in the Poplar Square Chase and major contender for all 2 mile championship chases, this included, assuming his jumping holds up.
Golden Silver: Got the better of Arkle winner Forpadydeplaster in Irish Arkle before going off the boil for the rest of his novice runs; Has since made up into one of top Irish Chasers, winning this race a year ago before impressive successes in the Dan Moore Memorial and Boylesports Champion Chase at Punchestown Festival; Well beaten behind Big Zeb first time up but already showed how much that had brought him on with impressive win in Hilly Way Chase last time; Should go close.
Scotsirish: Ran well in a series of races last season, the best of those being an excellent second under topweight in the Topham, also winning the Normans’s Grove Chase; Has been below par in his 2 runs this season, and needs a lot to be competitive in this.
VERDICT: A top notch renewal which is likely to tell us which of these horses is Ireland’s best 2 mile chaser, a claim which would entitled them to take a serious hand in the Champion Chase given they had the 1-2 in it last year. BIG ZEB was thoroughly dominant that day, and he looked as good as ever when landing his second successive Fortria Chase on his seasonal debut. Golden Silver can be expected to get closer on this occasion, but Big Zeb had a lot in hand. Captain Cee Bee could easily announce himself on the big stage here, although his jumping under pressure is still a worry.
Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+)
2m1f
Pick: Big Zeb (win)
Big Zeb: Has always had talent to produce great performances (as he showed when he should have beaten Masterminded but for a horrible mistake at the last 2 years ago) and finally put it all together when winning 4 out of his 5 starts last year, capped off by a devastating six length win in the Champion Chase; Retuned in good style when easily beating Golden Silver in the Fortria Chase, and is the clear standout here.
Captain Cee Bee: Hasn't had much luck since landing the Grade 1 Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 08’ but obviously top class and put together a slick round of jumping when winning Champion Novices Chase at Punchestown, salvaging a deserved success from his debut chasing season after a very poor round of jumping (admittedly with a burst blood vessel) led to an 8th place finish in the Arkle; Made light work of easy return in the Poplar Square Chase and major contender for all 2 mile championship chases, this included, assuming his jumping holds up.
Golden Silver: Got the better of Arkle winner Forpadydeplaster in Irish Arkle before going off the boil for the rest of his novice runs; Has since made up into one of top Irish Chasers, winning this race a year ago before impressive successes in the Dan Moore Memorial and Boylesports Champion Chase at Punchestown Festival; Well beaten behind Big Zeb first time up but already showed how much that had brought him on with impressive win in Hilly Way Chase last time; Should go close.
Scotsirish: Ran well in a series of races last season, the best of those being an excellent second under topweight in the Topham, also winning the Normans’s Grove Chase; Has been below par in his 2 runs this season, and needs a lot to be competitive in this.
VERDICT: A top notch renewal which is likely to tell us which of these horses is Ireland’s best 2 mile chaser, a claim which would entitled them to take a serious hand in the Champion Chase given they had the 1-2 in it last year. BIG ZEB was thoroughly dominant that day, and he looked as good as ever when landing his second successive Fortria Chase on his seasonal debut. Golden Silver can be expected to get closer on this occasion, but Big Zeb had a lot in hand. Captain Cee Bee could easily announce himself on the big stage here, although his jumping under pressure is still a worry.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival - December Festival Hurdle
1.55 Leopardstown
paddypower.com iPhone App December Festival Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €58,500
Pick: Hurricane Fly (win)
Hurricane Fly: Has only run 2 times in open company, which is testament to how difficult he can be to get fit; Immensely talented, having run down Solwhit off the back of a 273 day absence on only second run in open company in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle, and possibly even bettered that when beating him over his preferred trip and ground in the Hatton’s Grace last time out, and should prove much harder to beat at this trip.
Luska Lad: Really made hay last season, winning 5 races over hurdles, 3 of them being Grade 2 events (all strong form); Returned in exemplary style when giving 9lbs and an easy beating to Gimil’s Rock; Below par when well beaten 4th last time and needs more to make a serious mark here, although he’s got his conditions today.
Solwhit: Top class and near infallible hurdler who claimed his sixth Grade 1 success when landing the Dobbins and Madigans Hurdle for the second straight time in November; Ran as solid a race an ever when second to Hurricane Fly in the Hatton’s Grace, but he was brushed aside and has it harder at this trip.
Thousand Stars: Improved out of all recognition last season, landing 2 handicap hurdles before bouncing back from his Pierse Hurdle disappointment with a win in the Country Hurdle and a third behind Solwhit and Hurricane Fly in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle; Didn’t find things to his liking in France and is likely to need this.
Won In The Dark: Grade 1 winner who performed with credit last season(won twice) and was fourth in Aintree Hurdle; Runs well fresh but likely few of these will prove too good.
VERDICT: Back at his ideal trip, HURRICANE FLY is the overwhelming choice to confirm his form with Solwhit from their meeting in the Hatton’s Grace. Thousand Stars and Luska Lad are no slouched.
paddypower.com iPhone App December Festival Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €58,500
Pick: Hurricane Fly (win)
Hurricane Fly: Has only run 2 times in open company, which is testament to how difficult he can be to get fit; Immensely talented, having run down Solwhit off the back of a 273 day absence on only second run in open company in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle, and possibly even bettered that when beating him over his preferred trip and ground in the Hatton’s Grace last time out, and should prove much harder to beat at this trip.
Luska Lad: Really made hay last season, winning 5 races over hurdles, 3 of them being Grade 2 events (all strong form); Returned in exemplary style when giving 9lbs and an easy beating to Gimil’s Rock; Below par when well beaten 4th last time and needs more to make a serious mark here, although he’s got his conditions today.
Solwhit: Top class and near infallible hurdler who claimed his sixth Grade 1 success when landing the Dobbins and Madigans Hurdle for the second straight time in November; Ran as solid a race an ever when second to Hurricane Fly in the Hatton’s Grace, but he was brushed aside and has it harder at this trip.
Thousand Stars: Improved out of all recognition last season, landing 2 handicap hurdles before bouncing back from his Pierse Hurdle disappointment with a win in the Country Hurdle and a third behind Solwhit and Hurricane Fly in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle; Didn’t find things to his liking in France and is likely to need this.
Won In The Dark: Grade 1 winner who performed with credit last season(won twice) and was fourth in Aintree Hurdle; Runs well fresh but likely few of these will prove too good.
VERDICT: Back at his ideal trip, HURRICANE FLY is the overwhelming choice to confirm his form with Solwhit from their meeting in the Hatton’s Grace. Thousand Stars and Luska Lad are no slouched.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival - Future Champions Novice Hurdle 2010
1.55 Leopardstown
Paddypowerpoker.com Future Champions Novice Hurdle (grade 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €52,000
Pick: Zaidpour (win)
First Lieutenant: Has had a mixed start to hurdling, winning once at odds on in an ordinary maiden hurdle (for all he was a long way clear) and well beaten into third last time at Navan; This likely to be too tough.
Hazyemm: Been well exposed following respectable efforts in the summer; This too much.
Hidden Cyclone: Has been seriously impressive on all completed starts, making step up from maiden hurdle to Grade 3 company easily with commanding 6 length win in the ‘For Auction’ Novice Hurdle (over 2 miles); Clearly highly regarded (trained missed easier race at Navan to come here) and n surprise if he were to put up a bold show, for all this is a much harder affair.
Perfect Smile: Strong-travelling sort from notably powerful stable who didn't need to be at best to cruise home at Punchestown on reappearance (was fully entitled to do so);Travelled very well coming to the home turn before emptying out in the straight and may be ridden with lot more restraint today, which makes him an interesting runner.
Zaidpour: Very high class recruit to jumping game (Winner on Flat in France for Alain de Royer-Dupre and half-brother to high-class hurdler Zaynar) who created deep impression when routing field by 12 lengths at Punchestown on debut, building on that with even more impressive success in Royal Bond Novice Hurdle last time; This much tougher again but potential star quality and will be very hard to beat.
VERDICT: It’s likely that this is the hardest ZAIDPOUR will be tested all season before the Cheltenham Festival and while he should be making it three out of three here, the presence of the highly rated Hidden Cyclone means it’s no formality.
Paddypowerpoker.com Future Champions Novice Hurdle (grade 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €52,000
Pick: Zaidpour (win)
First Lieutenant: Has had a mixed start to hurdling, winning once at odds on in an ordinary maiden hurdle (for all he was a long way clear) and well beaten into third last time at Navan; This likely to be too tough.
Hazyemm: Been well exposed following respectable efforts in the summer; This too much.
Hidden Cyclone: Has been seriously impressive on all completed starts, making step up from maiden hurdle to Grade 3 company easily with commanding 6 length win in the ‘For Auction’ Novice Hurdle (over 2 miles); Clearly highly regarded (trained missed easier race at Navan to come here) and n surprise if he were to put up a bold show, for all this is a much harder affair.
Perfect Smile: Strong-travelling sort from notably powerful stable who didn't need to be at best to cruise home at Punchestown on reappearance (was fully entitled to do so);Travelled very well coming to the home turn before emptying out in the straight and may be ridden with lot more restraint today, which makes him an interesting runner.
Zaidpour: Very high class recruit to jumping game (Winner on Flat in France for Alain de Royer-Dupre and half-brother to high-class hurdler Zaynar) who created deep impression when routing field by 12 lengths at Punchestown on debut, building on that with even more impressive success in Royal Bond Novice Hurdle last time; This much tougher again but potential star quality and will be very hard to beat.
VERDICT: It’s likely that this is the hardest ZAIDPOUR will be tested all season before the Cheltenham Festival and while he should be making it three out of three here, the presence of the highly rated Hidden Cyclone means it’s no formality.
Monday, 27 December 2010
Leopardstown Christmas Festival - Lexus Chase
2.35 Leopardstown
Lexus Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €93,000
Pick: Pandorama (each/way)
Cooldine: Looked set for giant heights when winning the RSA Chase by 16 lengths, pulverising his field (was beaten at odds on since but that obviously due to tiredness) ; Hasn’t won since however, in a season where nothing went right for him fitness, condition or race wise (did look on way back in Guinness Gold Cup); jumped and went well for long way in John Durkan Chase last time, and may be close to peak here; Serious chance.
Glencove Marina: Has had his fair share of problems (only ran 6 times since January 2008) but very talented nonetheless and showed plenty of ability when smashing Notre Pere and Rare Bob in November; Showed all ability intact when fourth in John Durkan last time but this trip really going to test him.
Joncol: Made his mark as a staying chaser last year with wins in the John Durkan and Irish Hennessy, only just managing to outstay Cooldine in grim style; Worried some when he was a well beaten fourth warming up for this, but that was over 2 miles and the stable wasn’t right; Should be seen to much better effect here and the one most likely to handle soft ground.
Kempes: Very good hurdler who won a Grade 2 over fences and was in front of some pretty useful fencing types when second in the Champion Novice over 2m at Punchestown ; Has taken the time to get the hang on things over fences but did it good style in a Grade 2 and landed biggest success when comprehensively beating stablemate at Punchestown Festival; Considering trip was a mile too short, ran excellent race in Hilly Way Chase last time.
Let Yourself Go: Ran admirable race in Hilly Way Chase but was out on his feel when falling in the Hill Way Chase, so won’t be winning here against better opponents and a longer trip.
Money Trix: Ran a screamer when close second to What A Friend in this last year, before a bad mistake cost him any chance on his final appearance of the season in the Hennessy Gold Cup; Relishes ground and good record fresh although this renewal seems to have more strength in depth than last year.
Mossbank: Was a top class Chase in 2007/87 until injury intervened, (placed in this, the Ryanair and Guinness Gold Cup)but has struggled to get competitive in both starts this season.
Notre Pere: Was a top class staying chaser around 2 years ago, when he won the Welsh National in 2008 and the Gold Cup at Punchestown the following spring; Below par all of last season and doesn’t look good enough.
Pandorama: Winner of 8 from 10 starts over rules, the only defeat (when completed) coming to Ballymore properties winner Mikael D’Haugenet over hurdles; Unbeaten in three last season as a novice chaser, simply running away with the Drinmore Novice Chase; Made much harder work of landing the Knight Frank Novice Chase but jumped well in main and did very well to get up and beat RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty after mistake at last; Had a luckless run in the Hennessey, getting all but brought down at the second and being left so far behind that he was pulled up at the eighth; Has still only had 5 runs over fences
Siegemaster: Always been stuck between being a top class handicapper and Graded horse, and ran with real credit when fifth in the Guinness Gold Cup last summer; Ran respectably under a big weight in the Troytown most recently, but too much to do.
The Listener: Mud loving front-runner whose biggest 4 wins are all soft/heavy ground Grade 1 Chases here (Ireland);Won the JNWine Chase by 15 lengths on his last start but that 2 years ago and asking miracles of him to win this for you.
Vic Venturi: Romped home in the Bobbyjo and Becher Chases last season, and could be presented with an ideal test given that the ground’s likely to be heavy and there are horses that will want to force the pace; That said, better choices around.
J’y Vole: Well beaten in last year's renewal but went on to finish a fine third in the Ryanair at Cheltenham and was doing her best work in the closing stages of the John Durkan (given a lot to do as well); Shapes as if she’d improve for the extra trip but hasn’t ever looked like winning over this trip.
VERDICT: This represents a serious chance for Joncol and Cooldine especially, but there’s no way we saw the best of PANDORAMA in the Hennessy and he might well be good enough to have a big say. J’y Vole’s got the class to figure but is unproven at the trip.
Lexus Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €93,000
Pick: Pandorama (each/way)
Cooldine: Looked set for giant heights when winning the RSA Chase by 16 lengths, pulverising his field (was beaten at odds on since but that obviously due to tiredness) ; Hasn’t won since however, in a season where nothing went right for him fitness, condition or race wise (did look on way back in Guinness Gold Cup); jumped and went well for long way in John Durkan Chase last time, and may be close to peak here; Serious chance.
Glencove Marina: Has had his fair share of problems (only ran 6 times since January 2008) but very talented nonetheless and showed plenty of ability when smashing Notre Pere and Rare Bob in November; Showed all ability intact when fourth in John Durkan last time but this trip really going to test him.
Joncol: Made his mark as a staying chaser last year with wins in the John Durkan and Irish Hennessy, only just managing to outstay Cooldine in grim style; Worried some when he was a well beaten fourth warming up for this, but that was over 2 miles and the stable wasn’t right; Should be seen to much better effect here and the one most likely to handle soft ground.
Kempes: Very good hurdler who won a Grade 2 over fences and was in front of some pretty useful fencing types when second in the Champion Novice over 2m at Punchestown ; Has taken the time to get the hang on things over fences but did it good style in a Grade 2 and landed biggest success when comprehensively beating stablemate at Punchestown Festival; Considering trip was a mile too short, ran excellent race in Hilly Way Chase last time.
Let Yourself Go: Ran admirable race in Hilly Way Chase but was out on his feel when falling in the Hill Way Chase, so won’t be winning here against better opponents and a longer trip.
Money Trix: Ran a screamer when close second to What A Friend in this last year, before a bad mistake cost him any chance on his final appearance of the season in the Hennessy Gold Cup; Relishes ground and good record fresh although this renewal seems to have more strength in depth than last year.
Mossbank: Was a top class Chase in 2007/87 until injury intervened, (placed in this, the Ryanair and Guinness Gold Cup)but has struggled to get competitive in both starts this season.
Notre Pere: Was a top class staying chaser around 2 years ago, when he won the Welsh National in 2008 and the Gold Cup at Punchestown the following spring; Below par all of last season and doesn’t look good enough.
Pandorama: Winner of 8 from 10 starts over rules, the only defeat (when completed) coming to Ballymore properties winner Mikael D’Haugenet over hurdles; Unbeaten in three last season as a novice chaser, simply running away with the Drinmore Novice Chase; Made much harder work of landing the Knight Frank Novice Chase but jumped well in main and did very well to get up and beat RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty after mistake at last; Had a luckless run in the Hennessey, getting all but brought down at the second and being left so far behind that he was pulled up at the eighth; Has still only had 5 runs over fences
Siegemaster: Always been stuck between being a top class handicapper and Graded horse, and ran with real credit when fifth in the Guinness Gold Cup last summer; Ran respectably under a big weight in the Troytown most recently, but too much to do.
The Listener: Mud loving front-runner whose biggest 4 wins are all soft/heavy ground Grade 1 Chases here (Ireland);Won the JNWine Chase by 15 lengths on his last start but that 2 years ago and asking miracles of him to win this for you.
Vic Venturi: Romped home in the Bobbyjo and Becher Chases last season, and could be presented with an ideal test given that the ground’s likely to be heavy and there are horses that will want to force the pace; That said, better choices around.
J’y Vole: Well beaten in last year's renewal but went on to finish a fine third in the Ryanair at Cheltenham and was doing her best work in the closing stages of the John Durkan (given a lot to do as well); Shapes as if she’d improve for the extra trip but hasn’t ever looked like winning over this trip.
VERDICT: This represents a serious chance for Joncol and Cooldine especially, but there’s no way we saw the best of PANDORAMA in the Hennessy and he might well be good enough to have a big say. J’y Vole’s got the class to figure but is unproven at the trip.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival - Fort Leney Novice Chase
1.20 Leopardstown
Fort Leney Novice Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €48,750
Pick: Chicago Grey (win)
Bostons Angel: Was a wide margin winner of weak novice chase but well beaten in Drinmore Novice Chase last time and has a lot to do to get involved.
Chicago Grey: Has been in sparkling form this season, especially at Cheltenham; Looked all over the winner of competitive novice chase before falling 2 out and lost no caste in defeat when going down to Time For Rupert last time, an effort which sets a good standard based on the proximity of the winner in the RSA Market.
Elysian Rock: Improving for each run (and also raising in trip), having won his last 2 on the bounce; Got a handy weight concession last time and booking of Barry Geraghty should help matters, but this is a big rise in class.
Head Of The Posse: Highlight of a memorable 6 timer for owner JP McManus when he was forced to work hard as he made it two from two over fences in the Grade 3 Ballybrit Novice Chase; Mistake ruined his chances in the Drinmore but shaped like a non-stayer in home straight.
Healy’s Bar: Decent horse but never in it for a second behind Thegreatjohnbrowne last time and needs a lot more today.
Magnaminty: Was a grade 2 winner over hurdles last season and learned the hang of chasing very quickly when winning last time out; He had already been well beaten by Thegreatjohnbrowne first time up but can be expected to run better today.
Quadrillion: Always had a good amount of ability, and went some way to transferring his bumper form to hurdles; Has only had 2 chase starts and impressive in winning last time, so not discounted for top yard.
Quito De La Roque: Useful novice hurdler last season, winning a big handicap hurdle last summer along with a listed event; Has potential to be very useful over fences and started in exemplary fashion when scoring easily at Clonmel last time; Major threat.
Thegreatjohnbrowne: Never really made most of potential over hurdles but has quickly made up for that over fences, winning beginners chase with ease and then following up with even easier win in Grade 3 at Punchestown; Every chance of following up if his form can be taken at face value; Trainer has won last 2 renewals.
Western Charmer: Useful over hurdles, coming second to Mikael D’Haugenet and Pandorama in graded hurdles; Has been extremely unimpressive chasing over, pulling up before winning ordinary race last time.
VERDICT: Noel Meade has a serious chance of landing this for the third sucessive year with Thegreatjohnbrowne, but his bare form isn’t great for the grade and CHICAGO GREY should have a great chance on his bare form if Time For Rupert is 4-1 for the RSA Chase, and he’s been fthe best of these over fences so far. Head Of The Posse is a threat if his stamina holds up, while Quito De La Roque holds a lot of potential for this trip.
Fort Leney Novice Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €48,750
Pick: Chicago Grey (win)
Bostons Angel: Was a wide margin winner of weak novice chase but well beaten in Drinmore Novice Chase last time and has a lot to do to get involved.
Chicago Grey: Has been in sparkling form this season, especially at Cheltenham; Looked all over the winner of competitive novice chase before falling 2 out and lost no caste in defeat when going down to Time For Rupert last time, an effort which sets a good standard based on the proximity of the winner in the RSA Market.
Elysian Rock: Improving for each run (and also raising in trip), having won his last 2 on the bounce; Got a handy weight concession last time and booking of Barry Geraghty should help matters, but this is a big rise in class.
Head Of The Posse: Highlight of a memorable 6 timer for owner JP McManus when he was forced to work hard as he made it two from two over fences in the Grade 3 Ballybrit Novice Chase; Mistake ruined his chances in the Drinmore but shaped like a non-stayer in home straight.
Healy’s Bar: Decent horse but never in it for a second behind Thegreatjohnbrowne last time and needs a lot more today.
Magnaminty: Was a grade 2 winner over hurdles last season and learned the hang of chasing very quickly when winning last time out; He had already been well beaten by Thegreatjohnbrowne first time up but can be expected to run better today.
Quadrillion: Always had a good amount of ability, and went some way to transferring his bumper form to hurdles; Has only had 2 chase starts and impressive in winning last time, so not discounted for top yard.
Quito De La Roque: Useful novice hurdler last season, winning a big handicap hurdle last summer along with a listed event; Has potential to be very useful over fences and started in exemplary fashion when scoring easily at Clonmel last time; Major threat.
Thegreatjohnbrowne: Never really made most of potential over hurdles but has quickly made up for that over fences, winning beginners chase with ease and then following up with even easier win in Grade 3 at Punchestown; Every chance of following up if his form can be taken at face value; Trainer has won last 2 renewals.
Western Charmer: Useful over hurdles, coming second to Mikael D’Haugenet and Pandorama in graded hurdles; Has been extremely unimpressive chasing over, pulling up before winning ordinary race last time.
VERDICT: Noel Meade has a serious chance of landing this for the third sucessive year with Thegreatjohnbrowne, but his bare form isn’t great for the grade and CHICAGO GREY should have a great chance on his bare form if Time For Rupert is 4-1 for the RSA Chase, and he’s been fthe best of these over fences so far. Head Of The Posse is a threat if his stamina holds up, while Quito De La Roque holds a lot of potential for this trip.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival - woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle
2.00 Leopardstown
woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €29,25
Pick: Mourad (win)
Oscar Dan Dan: Made hay last season, his biggest moment coming when the Hatton’s Grace last year, although he also ran Powerstation very close under hefty penalty in this last year; Did win Lismullen Hurdle first time out but gifted race by fall of Atitimatov, so sometime to prove although he’s weighted to turn around form convincingly with last year’s winner Powerstation.
Shinrock Paddy: Possibly underrated given his high strike rate, having won 5 out his 7 starts including a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle; Disappointed afterwards at Cheltenham but that race no better than a write off and showed all ability remained when winning Tipper Road Hurdle at Naas and should go well here.
Powerstation: Classy and consistent staying hurdler who had golden moment last year when winning this last year and was third in World Hurdle afterwards; Hasn’t been in same form since and maybe age finally catching up with him.
Rigor Back Bob: Was very progressive over hurdles last term, winning 5 times including 3m Grade 3 at Punchestown in April; Looked set for much of the same this season after easy win on reappearance but had run miles below form before winning the Tara Hurdle, so not the most reliable pick for all the second’s a good yardstick.
Mossey Joe: Wide-margin winner of both points and created deep impression when continuing his effortless rise through racing's ranks in the Cork Stayers Novices' Hurdle last time; Well worth the step up in trip and should hold his own here.
Mourad: Ever consistent and never out of the first 4 last season running might race when winning Grade 3 by 13 lengths before running third in the World Series Hurdle; Ran a stormer when fourth in the Hatton’s Grace last time and should be very hard to beat.
Rick: Emphatic winner of Leopardstown maiden in January and beat Irish National runner-up Oscar Time at Thurles on reappearance; This likely to be too tough for him.
Summit Meeting: Held form very well over hurdles last season winning at Punchestown and Fairyhouse before coming fourth in Neptune Investment’s at Cheltenham; Did not run anywhere near that level of form (first time out) and poor effort again when last in Hatton’s Grace.
Alpine Glade: Has been transformed for switch to this yard, coming third behind Tarla on Grade 3 event at Punchestown Festival on debut an following up with easy wins in a minor event and handicap at Killarney; Travelled like winner in Tara Hurdle but flattened out and this tougher.
Garrai Ard: Been off for 500 days; Need this too much.
Moskova: Prolific winner of Mares Chases at Grade 3 level, and is useful over hurdles too, but well held on most form over hurdles.
VERDICT: Mossey Joe will be fancied to maintain his unbeaten record today in a strong contest, but MOURAD is the standout choice on a number of efforts and returned in fantastic style when fourth to Hurricane Fly and Solwhit among others at Fairyhouse on his seasonal reappearance. Shinrock Paddy rates best of the rest.
woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €29,25
Pick: Mourad (win)
Oscar Dan Dan: Made hay last season, his biggest moment coming when the Hatton’s Grace last year, although he also ran Powerstation very close under hefty penalty in this last year; Did win Lismullen Hurdle first time out but gifted race by fall of Atitimatov, so sometime to prove although he’s weighted to turn around form convincingly with last year’s winner Powerstation.
Shinrock Paddy: Possibly underrated given his high strike rate, having won 5 out his 7 starts including a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle; Disappointed afterwards at Cheltenham but that race no better than a write off and showed all ability remained when winning Tipper Road Hurdle at Naas and should go well here.
Powerstation: Classy and consistent staying hurdler who had golden moment last year when winning this last year and was third in World Hurdle afterwards; Hasn’t been in same form since and maybe age finally catching up with him.
Rigor Back Bob: Was very progressive over hurdles last term, winning 5 times including 3m Grade 3 at Punchestown in April; Looked set for much of the same this season after easy win on reappearance but had run miles below form before winning the Tara Hurdle, so not the most reliable pick for all the second’s a good yardstick.
Mossey Joe: Wide-margin winner of both points and created deep impression when continuing his effortless rise through racing's ranks in the Cork Stayers Novices' Hurdle last time; Well worth the step up in trip and should hold his own here.
Mourad: Ever consistent and never out of the first 4 last season running might race when winning Grade 3 by 13 lengths before running third in the World Series Hurdle; Ran a stormer when fourth in the Hatton’s Grace last time and should be very hard to beat.
Rick: Emphatic winner of Leopardstown maiden in January and beat Irish National runner-up Oscar Time at Thurles on reappearance; This likely to be too tough for him.
Summit Meeting: Held form very well over hurdles last season winning at Punchestown and Fairyhouse before coming fourth in Neptune Investment’s at Cheltenham; Did not run anywhere near that level of form (first time out) and poor effort again when last in Hatton’s Grace.
Alpine Glade: Has been transformed for switch to this yard, coming third behind Tarla on Grade 3 event at Punchestown Festival on debut an following up with easy wins in a minor event and handicap at Killarney; Travelled like winner in Tara Hurdle but flattened out and this tougher.
Garrai Ard: Been off for 500 days; Need this too much.
Moskova: Prolific winner of Mares Chases at Grade 3 level, and is useful over hurdles too, but well held on most form over hurdles.
VERDICT: Mossey Joe will be fancied to maintain his unbeaten record today in a strong contest, but MOURAD is the standout choice on a number of efforts and returned in fantastic style when fourth to Hurricane Fly and Solwhit among others at Fairyhouse on his seasonal reappearance. Shinrock Paddy rates best of the rest.
Thursday, 23 December 2010
William Hill King George 2011
3.00 Kempton
William Hill King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £114,020
Picks: Kauto Star (win),& The Nightingale (each/way)
Albertas Run: Past RSA winner who was impressive when scoring by 7 lengths in last at the beginning of last season; Did very well with ideal conditions, coming second in Ascot Chase before winning Ryanair and Melling Chases in good style; Came back with well beaten fourth in Old Roan but already running much better when falling 2 out (his pursuit of Masterminded proving futile) in Amlin 1965 Chase; May well be at his mid season peak and would be no surprise to see him run well.
Forpadydeplasterer: Finest hour came in the 2009 Arkle winner over C&D and has since been second on every single race he’s started, all but one of them in Grade one company; Usually runs game race but shouldn’t have been beaten last time and while one can see him getting involved over this trip and track, hard to see him winning.
Kauto Star: Confirmed himself as one of outstanding chasers of modern time when trashing 2009 Gold Cup field by 13 lengths, becoming only horse to regain Cheltenham Gold Cup in process and looked set for the three timer after a demolition job in this very race last year (one of highest rated performances ever) only to fall in main event, an earlier mistake having taken its toll; Came back seemingly as good as ever when beating Sizing Europe at Down Royal and one to beat as he aims for a remarkable fifth straight win.
Long Run: Came here with plenty of experience from France, and high quality experience at that as winner of three of his four starts over fences (impressive success in the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Gillois); Hacked up by 13 lengths from next time out winner Tazbar in Feltham Chase, and did same again when easy winner of Kingmaker Novices’ Chase; Made significant jumping errors on both wins and unable to get away with them when fading late on in RSA; Was widely expected to win Paddy Power Gold Cup off mark of 158 but a sloppy round of jumping led to a lacklustre third place; Foolish to write him off due to that, but has a lot of work to do on his jumping if he’s to land this.
Madison Du Berlais: Was an absolute revelation 2 seasons ago when winning this very race (off a 12lbs higher mark the Levy Board Chase (beat Denman by 23 lengths ) and Totesport Bowl; Hasn’t been in the same form since due to a mark of 169 but ran creditably on all occasions since and it’s well worth remembering that he was second in this last year, so he’s suitably placed to take advantage should he be below his best.
Nacarat: Impressed on first foray into Grade 1 company when nearly making all the running in the Melling Chase after a romp in the Racing Post chase; Went off boil since but has slowly came back into some sort of form afterwards and confirmed revival with easy Charlie Hall Chase win; Was well beaten after attempting to lead all the way in the Betfair Chase, and may find it near impossible to succeed with forcing tactics here.
Planet Of Sound: Ran a couple of great races at Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals as a novice, finishing third in the Arkle, and continued in the same vein when landing the Haldon Gold Cup on his first start last year, before a series of disappointing runs followed by a career best when landing the Punchestown Gold Cup; Made satisfactory return when third in Betfair Chase and very interesting at generous price given his rating.
Riverside Theatre: Reached a high level of form over hurdles and set to do big things over fences when hacking up on his first 2 starts as a novice; Made remarkable progress to come as close as fifth in Arkle last year, having been tailed off at halfway, so disappointing that he fell at Punchestown; Looked superb when coasting home here earlier in season and may be good enough to get involved.
The Nightingale: Looked to have been totally rejuvenated by a breathing op when bolting up at Fontwell and Kempton on his first two chase starts last year, so shame that he ruined his chance early by jumping right at Aintree; May have slipped under the radar following a serious effort when slamming Robert Goldback by 11 lengths, an effort that entitles him to be compering seriously in Grade 1 races; Second that day has since come third in John Durkan Chase (only beaten 1&1/2 lengths and massive unfilled potential, should he run here.
VERDICT: A pretty stellar renewal of a race that has made legends in the past, and today it all revolves around one horse. It’s nearly impossible to see anything beating KAUTO STAR in his attempt to win a remarkable 5th King George, with the 4 time winner looking as good as ever when winning the JNWine.com Champion Chase last time out. Long Run is seen by many as the horse to stop him, but he made several errors last time out and did not run up to a rating that suggested he could win this in the Paddy Power. With the likes of Nacarat and Ollie Magern looking set to make this a strong pace, those looking to for a solid each way alternative could do a lot worse than stablemate THE NIGHTINGALE, who's got a serious chance on his win at Down Royal earlier this season. Riverside Theatre is richly unexposed over fences (this will be his sixth start over fences) and may well take a hand, for all that he’s yet to be asked to go three miles.
William Hill King George VI Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £114,020
Picks: Kauto Star (win),& The Nightingale (each/way)
Albertas Run: Past RSA winner who was impressive when scoring by 7 lengths in last at the beginning of last season; Did very well with ideal conditions, coming second in Ascot Chase before winning Ryanair and Melling Chases in good style; Came back with well beaten fourth in Old Roan but already running much better when falling 2 out (his pursuit of Masterminded proving futile) in Amlin 1965 Chase; May well be at his mid season peak and would be no surprise to see him run well.
Forpadydeplasterer: Finest hour came in the 2009 Arkle winner over C&D and has since been second on every single race he’s started, all but one of them in Grade one company; Usually runs game race but shouldn’t have been beaten last time and while one can see him getting involved over this trip and track, hard to see him winning.
Kauto Star: Confirmed himself as one of outstanding chasers of modern time when trashing 2009 Gold Cup field by 13 lengths, becoming only horse to regain Cheltenham Gold Cup in process and looked set for the three timer after a demolition job in this very race last year (one of highest rated performances ever) only to fall in main event, an earlier mistake having taken its toll; Came back seemingly as good as ever when beating Sizing Europe at Down Royal and one to beat as he aims for a remarkable fifth straight win.
Long Run: Came here with plenty of experience from France, and high quality experience at that as winner of three of his four starts over fences (impressive success in the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Gillois); Hacked up by 13 lengths from next time out winner Tazbar in Feltham Chase, and did same again when easy winner of Kingmaker Novices’ Chase; Made significant jumping errors on both wins and unable to get away with them when fading late on in RSA; Was widely expected to win Paddy Power Gold Cup off mark of 158 but a sloppy round of jumping led to a lacklustre third place; Foolish to write him off due to that, but has a lot of work to do on his jumping if he’s to land this.
Madison Du Berlais: Was an absolute revelation 2 seasons ago when winning this very race (off a 12lbs higher mark the Levy Board Chase (beat Denman by 23 lengths ) and Totesport Bowl; Hasn’t been in the same form since due to a mark of 169 but ran creditably on all occasions since and it’s well worth remembering that he was second in this last year, so he’s suitably placed to take advantage should he be below his best.
Nacarat: Impressed on first foray into Grade 1 company when nearly making all the running in the Melling Chase after a romp in the Racing Post chase; Went off boil since but has slowly came back into some sort of form afterwards and confirmed revival with easy Charlie Hall Chase win; Was well beaten after attempting to lead all the way in the Betfair Chase, and may find it near impossible to succeed with forcing tactics here.
Planet Of Sound: Ran a couple of great races at Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals as a novice, finishing third in the Arkle, and continued in the same vein when landing the Haldon Gold Cup on his first start last year, before a series of disappointing runs followed by a career best when landing the Punchestown Gold Cup; Made satisfactory return when third in Betfair Chase and very interesting at generous price given his rating.
Riverside Theatre: Reached a high level of form over hurdles and set to do big things over fences when hacking up on his first 2 starts as a novice; Made remarkable progress to come as close as fifth in Arkle last year, having been tailed off at halfway, so disappointing that he fell at Punchestown; Looked superb when coasting home here earlier in season and may be good enough to get involved.
The Nightingale: Looked to have been totally rejuvenated by a breathing op when bolting up at Fontwell and Kempton on his first two chase starts last year, so shame that he ruined his chance early by jumping right at Aintree; May have slipped under the radar following a serious effort when slamming Robert Goldback by 11 lengths, an effort that entitles him to be compering seriously in Grade 1 races; Second that day has since come third in John Durkan Chase (only beaten 1&1/2 lengths and massive unfilled potential, should he run here.
VERDICT: A pretty stellar renewal of a race that has made legends in the past, and today it all revolves around one horse. It’s nearly impossible to see anything beating KAUTO STAR in his attempt to win a remarkable 5th King George, with the 4 time winner looking as good as ever when winning the JNWine.com Champion Chase last time out. Long Run is seen by many as the horse to stop him, but he made several errors last time out and did not run up to a rating that suggested he could win this in the Paddy Power. With the likes of Nacarat and Ollie Magern looking set to make this a strong pace, those looking to for a solid each way alternative could do a lot worse than stablemate THE NIGHTINGALE, who's got a serious chance on his win at Down Royal earlier this season. Riverside Theatre is richly unexposed over fences (this will be his sixth start over fences) and may well take a hand, for all that he’s yet to be asked to go three miles.
William Hill Winter Festival - Christmas Hurdle
2.25 Kempton
Williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £51,309
Pick: Binocular (win)
Barizan: Enjoyed tremendous juvenile hurdling season ( 6 wins), nearly pulling off one of great front running performances in Triumph Hurdle and romping home at Punchestown festival; Hasn’t come back as good though, getting thrashed by Clerk’s Choice first time out, poor in Elite Hurdle and only one paced at Haydock last time.
Binocular: Reached his true potential when storming to impressive victory in Champion Hurdle romp last year (rated as the best winner of the Champion Hurdle since Istabraq on BHA ratings), having been below par for a large par of the season, putting in blow par efforts in Fighting Fifth (5th) and this race last year(3rd);Travelled very well considering condition in Fighting Fifth behind Peddlers Cross and Starluck last time, and may well be more forward this season than last, which would make him the one to beat considering how much ground he made up on Go Native between these two races last year (was beaten 7 lengths in Fighting Fifth, 1&3/4 in this last year); Rates as one to beat.
Bocamix: Ran creditably on more than one occasion in face of stiff task, but lost his way towards the end of that campaign and was well held in a handicap on last start; Close second behind Carlito Brigante but hugely flattered with weight concession, so has a lot to do to be involved.
Escort’Men: Brought down on first start and had previously finished fifth in a Listed hurdle at Auteuil; Super impressive when landing Dovecote by 14 lengths on bridle; Race fell in front of him to an extent, having been a strongly run affair on soft ground but he was super impressive that day; Not shown to best light by fast Ground at Aintree, and proved he’s got guts to go with class when landing competitive limited handicap on first start this season (recovered from terrible mistake at last); Interesting contender who still has potential.
Khyber Kim: Proved an absolute revelation last year with wins in the Greatwood and Bula Hurdle before an excellent second in the Champion, topped off with a win in the Aintree Hurdle; One of the standouts in this field and set to run a big race if fit and ready.
Oscar Whisky: Made smooth progress as a novice last season, winning his first 2 starts with contemptuous ease and then running fourth in the Supreme Novice Hurdle despite inexperience; Form of that race has stood up in general and would have to be taken seriously if he runs.
Overturn: Made some truly remarkable progress over hurdles and the flat fduring the summer, romping away with the Northumberland Plate, Scottish Champion Hurdle and Galway Hurdle; That doesn’t entitled him to take a hand here but comes from a good yard to do so (same connections of Peddlers Cross) and not to be underestimated on a fair track that’s bound to suit although he still has a lot to do.
Sanctuaire: Promising young French horse who made his British debut in a Taunton novice hurdle winning with a degree of comfort; Nothing compared to what he did next, romping home in the Fred Winter (could be called winner some way out); Slightly disappointing when stepped up into Grade 1 company, pulling too hard for own good (travelled like winner but emptied in home straight);Was making some eye-catching headway in Greatwood Hurdle before falling, and shouldn’t be judged on his third place last time (race was run at a crawl); Stronger the pace, the better and not done improving yet based on his earlier effort.
Starluck: Went some way towards fulfilling potential showed as a juvenile hurdler last season, winning easily at Cheltenham before coming a close second to Go Native in this last year (flattered); 5th behind Binocular in the Champion last year was an excellent run and he came back just as good when pushing Peddlers Cross all the way in Fighting Fifth; Another big run expected.
VERDICT: A very solid renewal of the Christmas Hurdle which will provide the latest in a long line of insights into what is shaping up to be a fascinating Champion Hurdle picture. Although he was beaten in this race last season after showing below par in the Fighting Fifth BINOCULAR shaped as if much more forward this year than last when third at Newbury behind Starluck, being right there without much forcing right up until the last before flattening out, and he could take all the beating with the improvement likely to come. Despite the reappearance of last year’s Champion Hurdle second Khyber Kim, the one to beat may well be Starluck, with a run under his belt at the track he loves, while you’d be foolish to rule out Oscar Whisky, as he’s only had 3 hurdle races, rates a good horse on the Supreme Novice form and he’d love a flat track, while this may prove a bit too tough for Escortmen despite his trainer’s excellent record with 4 year olds in big races. In any case, he rates a more tempting prospect than Overturn despite the conditions being set to suit.
Williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £51,309
Pick: Binocular (win)
Barizan: Enjoyed tremendous juvenile hurdling season ( 6 wins), nearly pulling off one of great front running performances in Triumph Hurdle and romping home at Punchestown festival; Hasn’t come back as good though, getting thrashed by Clerk’s Choice first time out, poor in Elite Hurdle and only one paced at Haydock last time.
Binocular: Reached his true potential when storming to impressive victory in Champion Hurdle romp last year (rated as the best winner of the Champion Hurdle since Istabraq on BHA ratings), having been below par for a large par of the season, putting in blow par efforts in Fighting Fifth (5th) and this race last year(3rd);Travelled very well considering condition in Fighting Fifth behind Peddlers Cross and Starluck last time, and may well be more forward this season than last, which would make him the one to beat considering how much ground he made up on Go Native between these two races last year (was beaten 7 lengths in Fighting Fifth, 1&3/4 in this last year); Rates as one to beat.
Bocamix: Ran creditably on more than one occasion in face of stiff task, but lost his way towards the end of that campaign and was well held in a handicap on last start; Close second behind Carlito Brigante but hugely flattered with weight concession, so has a lot to do to be involved.
Escort’Men: Brought down on first start and had previously finished fifth in a Listed hurdle at Auteuil; Super impressive when landing Dovecote by 14 lengths on bridle; Race fell in front of him to an extent, having been a strongly run affair on soft ground but he was super impressive that day; Not shown to best light by fast Ground at Aintree, and proved he’s got guts to go with class when landing competitive limited handicap on first start this season (recovered from terrible mistake at last); Interesting contender who still has potential.
Khyber Kim: Proved an absolute revelation last year with wins in the Greatwood and Bula Hurdle before an excellent second in the Champion, topped off with a win in the Aintree Hurdle; One of the standouts in this field and set to run a big race if fit and ready.
Oscar Whisky: Made smooth progress as a novice last season, winning his first 2 starts with contemptuous ease and then running fourth in the Supreme Novice Hurdle despite inexperience; Form of that race has stood up in general and would have to be taken seriously if he runs.
Overturn: Made some truly remarkable progress over hurdles and the flat fduring the summer, romping away with the Northumberland Plate, Scottish Champion Hurdle and Galway Hurdle; That doesn’t entitled him to take a hand here but comes from a good yard to do so (same connections of Peddlers Cross) and not to be underestimated on a fair track that’s bound to suit although he still has a lot to do.
Sanctuaire: Promising young French horse who made his British debut in a Taunton novice hurdle winning with a degree of comfort; Nothing compared to what he did next, romping home in the Fred Winter (could be called winner some way out); Slightly disappointing when stepped up into Grade 1 company, pulling too hard for own good (travelled like winner but emptied in home straight);Was making some eye-catching headway in Greatwood Hurdle before falling, and shouldn’t be judged on his third place last time (race was run at a crawl); Stronger the pace, the better and not done improving yet based on his earlier effort.
Starluck: Went some way towards fulfilling potential showed as a juvenile hurdler last season, winning easily at Cheltenham before coming a close second to Go Native in this last year (flattered); 5th behind Binocular in the Champion last year was an excellent run and he came back just as good when pushing Peddlers Cross all the way in Fighting Fifth; Another big run expected.
VERDICT: A very solid renewal of the Christmas Hurdle which will provide the latest in a long line of insights into what is shaping up to be a fascinating Champion Hurdle picture. Although he was beaten in this race last season after showing below par in the Fighting Fifth BINOCULAR shaped as if much more forward this year than last when third at Newbury behind Starluck, being right there without much forcing right up until the last before flattening out, and he could take all the beating with the improvement likely to come. Despite the reappearance of last year’s Champion Hurdle second Khyber Kim, the one to beat may well be Starluck, with a run under his belt at the track he loves, while you’d be foolish to rule out Oscar Whisky, as he’s only had 3 hurdle races, rates a good horse on the Supreme Novice form and he’d love a flat track, while this may prove a bit too tough for Escortmen despite his trainer’s excellent record with 4 year olds in big races. In any case, he rates a more tempting prospect than Overturn despite the conditions being set to suit.
William Hill Winter Festival - Feltham Chase
1.50 Kempton
williamhill.com Feltham Novices' Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £31,356
Pick: Loosen My Load (win)
Aiteenthirtythree: Showed a lot of promise last season when coming third, second and second again over hurdles and broke his maiden over smaller obstacles when showing improve d attitude at Cheltenham; Made impressive start over fences when winning Grade 2 by 18 lengths but unfortunate demise of Tell Massini left him with nothing to beat; He will be tested more here.
Billie Magern: Made hay in the summer jumping circuit over fences, winning 4 times on the bounce; Has since struggled to really hold his own in some good races, having been well beaten behind Chicago Grey and then coming fifth at the Open meeting.
Cois Farraig: Performed with credit when second to high class Nicky Henderson pair Lush Life and Oscar Whisky, and jumped well and shaped as if he’d be better for the race when third on chase debut at Ascot; Took Grade 2 Chase at Newbury on his last start but was fortunate that Sprit River fell and Celestial Halo didn’t fancy it; Can’t be ruled out totally but this again will be harder.
Fredo: Has run twice and come second both times on his first 2 starts over fences; Ran with credit to get close to Tell Massini on his debut, and did the same behind reopposing Master Of The Hall at Ascot last time; Flattered by his proximity to latter named rival last time as he did bank the last very hard and set to struggle.
Fruity O’Rooney: Looked as if he was capable of transferring his smart hurdle form over hurdles to fences when winning in easy style over 2m4f at Fontwell; Went chasing but unable to land a blow in big Haydock Hurdle; Hard to really rate, and likely to struggle against better types.
Golan Way: Very smart hurdler who has always had scope for fences, and translated that in easy debut win; Pitched in at the deep end for a Graduation chase and held his own, coming fourth behind Riverside Theatre (won well last time); How well he does over 3 miles is open to debate, but he’s got class to be involved.
Hell’s Bay: Ran with credit when giving class hurdler Time For Rupert 5lbs when second in very good novice chase at Cheltenham Open Meeting; Appeared to excel himself that day and showed effects of that draining run when well beaten third at Newbury.
Loosen My Load: Made very smart start to life under rules last year, winning his first three races before running a good race on his first start over fences behind Fosters Cross; Won Grade 2 over hurdles here a year ago but struggled in face of stiff tasks; Has been flawless in 3 from 3 over fences though, running away with Graded event; Travelled strongly in strong Grade 2 at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting but was tapped for toe in homes straight (under penalty); Step up in trip may help him, especially on a track such as Kempton and has the class to be getting seriously involved here.
Master Of The Hall: 3 from 5 since appearing in Britain, and looked promising when winning at Sandown and Newbury on his first two starts over hurdle; Wasn't himself when last seen over hurdles in February but made a good chasing debut (last fence error apart) at Ascot; Has scope to go far chasing.
On Borrowed Wings: Improved a lot for switch to this yard over hurdles last season (won twice, second once, and beaten into eighth at Cheltenham Festival); Made a winning chasing debut at Stratford and took advantage of below par runs to take second at Newbury behind Cois Farraig; Kempton suits but hard to see form reversal.
VERDICT: A classy entry here, and while the winner’s record in the RSA Chase isn’t enviable, this year’s winner will merit serious consideration. Many will see Aiteenthirtythree as the standout but he has a lot more on his plate than last time, and LOOSEN MY LOAD may well be much better suited by Kempton around three miles than Cheltenham last time, and has the class to be involved. Master Of The Hall is the biggest threat.
williamhill.com Feltham Novices' Chase (In Memory Of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £31,356
Pick: Loosen My Load (win)
Aiteenthirtythree: Showed a lot of promise last season when coming third, second and second again over hurdles and broke his maiden over smaller obstacles when showing improve d attitude at Cheltenham; Made impressive start over fences when winning Grade 2 by 18 lengths but unfortunate demise of Tell Massini left him with nothing to beat; He will be tested more here.
Billie Magern: Made hay in the summer jumping circuit over fences, winning 4 times on the bounce; Has since struggled to really hold his own in some good races, having been well beaten behind Chicago Grey and then coming fifth at the Open meeting.
Cois Farraig: Performed with credit when second to high class Nicky Henderson pair Lush Life and Oscar Whisky, and jumped well and shaped as if he’d be better for the race when third on chase debut at Ascot; Took Grade 2 Chase at Newbury on his last start but was fortunate that Sprit River fell and Celestial Halo didn’t fancy it; Can’t be ruled out totally but this again will be harder.
Fredo: Has run twice and come second both times on his first 2 starts over fences; Ran with credit to get close to Tell Massini on his debut, and did the same behind reopposing Master Of The Hall at Ascot last time; Flattered by his proximity to latter named rival last time as he did bank the last very hard and set to struggle.
Fruity O’Rooney: Looked as if he was capable of transferring his smart hurdle form over hurdles to fences when winning in easy style over 2m4f at Fontwell; Went chasing but unable to land a blow in big Haydock Hurdle; Hard to really rate, and likely to struggle against better types.
Golan Way: Very smart hurdler who has always had scope for fences, and translated that in easy debut win; Pitched in at the deep end for a Graduation chase and held his own, coming fourth behind Riverside Theatre (won well last time); How well he does over 3 miles is open to debate, but he’s got class to be involved.
Hell’s Bay: Ran with credit when giving class hurdler Time For Rupert 5lbs when second in very good novice chase at Cheltenham Open Meeting; Appeared to excel himself that day and showed effects of that draining run when well beaten third at Newbury.
Loosen My Load: Made very smart start to life under rules last year, winning his first three races before running a good race on his first start over fences behind Fosters Cross; Won Grade 2 over hurdles here a year ago but struggled in face of stiff tasks; Has been flawless in 3 from 3 over fences though, running away with Graded event; Travelled strongly in strong Grade 2 at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting but was tapped for toe in homes straight (under penalty); Step up in trip may help him, especially on a track such as Kempton and has the class to be getting seriously involved here.
Master Of The Hall: 3 from 5 since appearing in Britain, and looked promising when winning at Sandown and Newbury on his first two starts over hurdle; Wasn't himself when last seen over hurdles in February but made a good chasing debut (last fence error apart) at Ascot; Has scope to go far chasing.
On Borrowed Wings: Improved a lot for switch to this yard over hurdles last season (won twice, second once, and beaten into eighth at Cheltenham Festival); Made a winning chasing debut at Stratford and took advantage of below par runs to take second at Newbury behind Cois Farraig; Kempton suits but hard to see form reversal.
VERDICT: A classy entry here, and while the winner’s record in the RSA Chase isn’t enviable, this year’s winner will merit serious consideration. Many will see Aiteenthirtythree as the standout but he has a lot more on his plate than last time, and LOOSEN MY LOAD may well be much better suited by Kempton around three miles than Cheltenham last time, and has the class to be involved. Master Of The Hall is the biggest threat.
Leopardstown Christmas Festival - Dial A-Bet-Chase 2010
1.25 Leopardstown
Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+)
2m1f
Pick: Big Zeb (win)
Big Zeb: Has always had talent to produce great performances (as he showed when he should have beaten Masterminded but for a horrible mistake at the last 2 years ago) and finally put it all together when winning 4 out of his 5 starts last year, capped off by a devastating six length win in the Champion Chase; Retuned in good style when easily beating Golden Silver in the Fortria Chase, and is the clear standout here.
Captain Cee Bee: Hasn't had much luck since landing the Grade 1 Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 08’ but obviously top class and put together a slick round of jumping when winning Champion Novices Chase at Punchestown, salvaging a deserved success from his debut chasing season after a very poor round of jumping (admittedly with a burst blood vessel) led to an 8th place finish in the Arkle; Made light work of easy return in the Poplar Square Chase and major contender for all 2 mile championship chases, this included, assuming his jumping holds up.
Follow The Plan: Decent 2m Novice Chaser who took notable scalp of Tatenen in Grade 1 at Christmas 2 years ago; Has only run 5 times since then but would have massive task even on his best form.
Golden Silver: Got the better of Arkle winner Forpadydeplaster in Irish Arkle before going off the boil for the rest of his novice runs; Has since made up into one of top Irish Chasers, winning this race a year ago before impressive successes in the Dan Moore Memorial and Boylesports Champion Chase at Punchestown Festival; Well beaten behind Big Zeb first time up but already showed how much that had brought him on with impressive win in Hilly Way Chase last time; Should go close.
Made In Taipan: Has struggled to break into the top ranks over fences, although he did come forth in 2 Grade 1 races last year and no shame in being beaten 8 lengths (giving 8lbs) to Glencove Marina last term; Will need this after 8 months off though.
Scotsirish: Ran well in a series of races last season, the best of those being an excellent second under topweight in the Topham, also winning the Normans’s Grove Chase; Has been below par in his 2 runs this season, and needs a lot to be competitive in this.
Jy V’ole: Top class mare who was beaten by pair of top notch performers in Poquelin and Albertas Run in the Ryanair, only to unseat in the Guinness Gold Cup; Ran a great race having been given too much to do in the John Durkan to claim second late on, and over an even shorter trip, doubtful that she can beat such top notch performers.
VERDICT: A top notch renewal which is likely to tell us which of these horses is Ireland’s best 2 mile chaser, a claim which would entitled them to take a serious hand in the Champion Chase given they had the 1-2 in it last year. BIG ZEB was thoroughly dominant that day, and he looked as good as ever when landing his second successive Fortria Chase on his seasonal debut. Golden Silver can be expected to get closer on this occasion, but Big Zeb had a lot in hand. Captain Cee Bee could easily announce himself on the big stage here, although his jumping under pressure is still a worry.
Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase (Grade 1) (5yo+)
2m1f
Pick: Big Zeb (win)
Big Zeb: Has always had talent to produce great performances (as he showed when he should have beaten Masterminded but for a horrible mistake at the last 2 years ago) and finally put it all together when winning 4 out of his 5 starts last year, capped off by a devastating six length win in the Champion Chase; Retuned in good style when easily beating Golden Silver in the Fortria Chase, and is the clear standout here.
Captain Cee Bee: Hasn't had much luck since landing the Grade 1 Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 08’ but obviously top class and put together a slick round of jumping when winning Champion Novices Chase at Punchestown, salvaging a deserved success from his debut chasing season after a very poor round of jumping (admittedly with a burst blood vessel) led to an 8th place finish in the Arkle; Made light work of easy return in the Poplar Square Chase and major contender for all 2 mile championship chases, this included, assuming his jumping holds up.
Follow The Plan: Decent 2m Novice Chaser who took notable scalp of Tatenen in Grade 1 at Christmas 2 years ago; Has only run 5 times since then but would have massive task even on his best form.
Golden Silver: Got the better of Arkle winner Forpadydeplaster in Irish Arkle before going off the boil for the rest of his novice runs; Has since made up into one of top Irish Chasers, winning this race a year ago before impressive successes in the Dan Moore Memorial and Boylesports Champion Chase at Punchestown Festival; Well beaten behind Big Zeb first time up but already showed how much that had brought him on with impressive win in Hilly Way Chase last time; Should go close.
Made In Taipan: Has struggled to break into the top ranks over fences, although he did come forth in 2 Grade 1 races last year and no shame in being beaten 8 lengths (giving 8lbs) to Glencove Marina last term; Will need this after 8 months off though.
Scotsirish: Ran well in a series of races last season, the best of those being an excellent second under topweight in the Topham, also winning the Normans’s Grove Chase; Has been below par in his 2 runs this season, and needs a lot to be competitive in this.
Jy V’ole: Top class mare who was beaten by pair of top notch performers in Poquelin and Albertas Run in the Ryanair, only to unseat in the Guinness Gold Cup; Ran a great race having been given too much to do in the John Durkan to claim second late on, and over an even shorter trip, doubtful that she can beat such top notch performers.
VERDICT: A top notch renewal which is likely to tell us which of these horses is Ireland’s best 2 mile chaser, a claim which would entitled them to take a serious hand in the Champion Chase given they had the 1-2 in it last year. BIG ZEB was thoroughly dominant that day, and he looked as good as ever when landing his second successive Fortria Chase on his seasonal debut. Golden Silver can be expected to get closer on this occasion, but Big Zeb had a lot in hand. Captain Cee Bee could easily announce himself on the big stage here, although his jumping under pressure is still a worry.
Sunday, 19 December 2010
Cheltenham Ante Post - Supreme Novices Hurdle and Arkle Chase
The first race to come under the radar would be the Supreme Novices but while I’m not Pricewise, there would be little point in putting up Cue Card at 3/1; While Zaidpour has been class all over so far, we’ll know whether he the real deal after he runs (Weather permitting) at Leopardstown over Christmas, and for all that he won by 12 lengths, the Royal Bond was essentially just a really well funded novice hurdle.
That said, I was really taken with how MEGASTAR hurdled at Ascot on debut and given the attitude he showed over bumpers I wouldn’t consider it to be a negative should he go there lightly raced; Gary Moore said that the Tolworth was a possible option for him and it would be great to see him go there, as he does need to settle and jump much better to hold a serious chance.
The Arkle is one of my favourite races of the festival, as it brings every type of horse to the fore; Class acts such as Moscow Flyer and Well Chief have won it while Grinders like Or Royal and Champleve have also been proved successful.
FINIAN’S RAINBOW very much appeals as the type for this race, being a speedy sort who gets much further than this; But he might be a false favourite due to the blowouts of Celestial Halo and Sprit River, and having been recommended already at 16/1, he can be left alone.
I was really taken with the win of Ghizao at the Open Meeting, seeing as he beat the best assembled field all season with contemptuous ease and surely he’ll be suited by the Arkle’s pace; His jumping at that pace is a worry though, as is the fact that he didn’t stand much racing at all last season. Another impressive win would see him become a worthy favourite (he’s achieved the most of those at the head of the market).
Many feel that Merdermit should have won the Supreme Novices and to be fair, he wasn’t very short off the top level over hurdles; However his first 2 Chase runs have left a lot to be desired – He banked 3 and made mistakes at 2 when winning at Aintree (no decent rival left after Wessex King fell) and hadn’t jumped well when running out in a weak event at Huntingdon.
That all changed when he was an impressive winner of a very smart novices Chase at Plumpton, jumping with real fluency and drawing away from 2 very decent rivals; Admittedly his hurdle form demanded that he did something like this (was rated 12lbs superior) but it was impressive nonetheless and he’s respected on that basis, but left well alone on the fact that he’s yet to put 2 top runs together and may yet still go for the newly reinstated Jewson Novices Chase.
Top class hurdler Mikael d'Haguenet developed really well over hurdles in 2008/9, winning all six starts after being brought over from France, including Grade 1s at Navan, Cheltenham (a very strong renewal of the Ballymore, beating Hennessy Gold Cup winner Diamond Harry and Karabak) and Punchestown, before he was injured. It would probably have been a winning return as well had he not crumpled on landing after the last (more a slip than an actual mistake), having jumped with verve and intent, and he looked much the best through the race, especially in the home straight. This was a tough ask for him and he can only get better, and based on this e's suffered no ill-effects from the splint and muscle problems that kept him off the track, once again showing the shrewdness of his trainer in not rushing him back.
Potential future targets are much more difficult though, given that he’s always had speed and gears and boasts of winning form over 2 miles; He’s as short as 6’s for the RSA, but he’s shown enough speed over hurdles (has won twice over 2 miles during novice campaign; One giving 8lbs to the runner up) and would almost certainly be suited by the strong pace and unique test of speed/stamina that the Arkle presents.
On the other hand, he’s never shaped like a horse short of stamina and given how he outstayed/outsped the high class pair in the Ballymore (who have both gone onto success over 3 miles) the RSA must be in the minds of the connections; He’s got the class to go and be a main contender for either and the Knight Frank Novice Chase over Christmas will tell all regards his festival prospects, for the opposition there is sure to be stronger and it will prove whether or not he stays 3m; He’s all class nonetheless.
16/1 is a very attractive price given he’s got the speed but he’s always been touted as a Gold Cup horse and looks much likelier to go for the RSA Chase.
some quarters, CAPTAIN CHRIS was being talked about more than Menorah before the season started; That talk has been proven to be foolish although he hasn’t disgraced himself – The ground was too soft when he came up against a class act in Silviniaco Conti first time out and he suffered for a lack of experience when well beaten by Ghizao in the Independent Novices Chase – And I’d be very interested in him with a couple more runs, regardless of the opposition as with more experience he’d be a worthy contender and rates a decent price at 20/1 In places with track experience behind him – He could easily be as low as 10’s come March.
Surfing was much better than his fifth last time in France indicates, and would have to merit plenty of interest – He won three times in France and has been well fancied to do big things by his trainer - but I can’t back him until I’ve seen him, even if he is as big as 25/1.
Royal Charm is quoted as low as 12’s by Betfred but he won’t go for the race (connections want more time with him, and a trip), Oscar Whisky is staying over hurdles, while Punjabi (who would have been very interesting) is being given another year to recover himself.
Advice
1 pt each/way Megastar for the Supreme Novice Hurdle (16/1 SkyBet, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James, Coral)
Finian’s Rainbow each/way for the Arkle – Already Recommended
1 pt each/way Captain Chris for the Arkle (20/1 Bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James, 888Sport)
That said, I was really taken with how MEGASTAR hurdled at Ascot on debut and given the attitude he showed over bumpers I wouldn’t consider it to be a negative should he go there lightly raced; Gary Moore said that the Tolworth was a possible option for him and it would be great to see him go there, as he does need to settle and jump much better to hold a serious chance.
The Arkle is one of my favourite races of the festival, as it brings every type of horse to the fore; Class acts such as Moscow Flyer and Well Chief have won it while Grinders like Or Royal and Champleve have also been proved successful.
FINIAN’S RAINBOW very much appeals as the type for this race, being a speedy sort who gets much further than this; But he might be a false favourite due to the blowouts of Celestial Halo and Sprit River, and having been recommended already at 16/1, he can be left alone.
I was really taken with the win of Ghizao at the Open Meeting, seeing as he beat the best assembled field all season with contemptuous ease and surely he’ll be suited by the Arkle’s pace; His jumping at that pace is a worry though, as is the fact that he didn’t stand much racing at all last season. Another impressive win would see him become a worthy favourite (he’s achieved the most of those at the head of the market).
Many feel that Merdermit should have won the Supreme Novices and to be fair, he wasn’t very short off the top level over hurdles; However his first 2 Chase runs have left a lot to be desired – He banked 3 and made mistakes at 2 when winning at Aintree (no decent rival left after Wessex King fell) and hadn’t jumped well when running out in a weak event at Huntingdon.
That all changed when he was an impressive winner of a very smart novices Chase at Plumpton, jumping with real fluency and drawing away from 2 very decent rivals; Admittedly his hurdle form demanded that he did something like this (was rated 12lbs superior) but it was impressive nonetheless and he’s respected on that basis, but left well alone on the fact that he’s yet to put 2 top runs together and may yet still go for the newly reinstated Jewson Novices Chase.
Top class hurdler Mikael d'Haguenet developed really well over hurdles in 2008/9, winning all six starts after being brought over from France, including Grade 1s at Navan, Cheltenham (a very strong renewal of the Ballymore, beating Hennessy Gold Cup winner Diamond Harry and Karabak) and Punchestown, before he was injured. It would probably have been a winning return as well had he not crumpled on landing after the last (more a slip than an actual mistake), having jumped with verve and intent, and he looked much the best through the race, especially in the home straight. This was a tough ask for him and he can only get better, and based on this e's suffered no ill-effects from the splint and muscle problems that kept him off the track, once again showing the shrewdness of his trainer in not rushing him back.
Potential future targets are much more difficult though, given that he’s always had speed and gears and boasts of winning form over 2 miles; He’s as short as 6’s for the RSA, but he’s shown enough speed over hurdles (has won twice over 2 miles during novice campaign; One giving 8lbs to the runner up) and would almost certainly be suited by the strong pace and unique test of speed/stamina that the Arkle presents.
On the other hand, he’s never shaped like a horse short of stamina and given how he outstayed/outsped the high class pair in the Ballymore (who have both gone onto success over 3 miles) the RSA must be in the minds of the connections; He’s got the class to go and be a main contender for either and the Knight Frank Novice Chase over Christmas will tell all regards his festival prospects, for the opposition there is sure to be stronger and it will prove whether or not he stays 3m; He’s all class nonetheless.
16/1 is a very attractive price given he’s got the speed but he’s always been touted as a Gold Cup horse and looks much likelier to go for the RSA Chase.
some quarters, CAPTAIN CHRIS was being talked about more than Menorah before the season started; That talk has been proven to be foolish although he hasn’t disgraced himself – The ground was too soft when he came up against a class act in Silviniaco Conti first time out and he suffered for a lack of experience when well beaten by Ghizao in the Independent Novices Chase – And I’d be very interested in him with a couple more runs, regardless of the opposition as with more experience he’d be a worthy contender and rates a decent price at 20/1 In places with track experience behind him – He could easily be as low as 10’s come March.
Surfing was much better than his fifth last time in France indicates, and would have to merit plenty of interest – He won three times in France and has been well fancied to do big things by his trainer - but I can’t back him until I’ve seen him, even if he is as big as 25/1.
Royal Charm is quoted as low as 12’s by Betfred but he won’t go for the race (connections want more time with him, and a trip), Oscar Whisky is staying over hurdles, while Punjabi (who would have been very interesting) is being given another year to recover himself.
Advice
1 pt each/way Megastar for the Supreme Novice Hurdle (16/1 SkyBet, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Victor Chandler, Paddy Power, Stan James, Coral)
Finian’s Rainbow each/way for the Arkle – Already Recommended
1 pt each/way Captain Chris for the Arkle (20/1 Bet365, Blue Sq, Stan James, 888Sport)
Cheltenham Ante Post - William Hill Chase
The William Hill Chase is one of the hardest to solve at the whole festival and I can’t say I fancy it that much, but SUNNYHILLBOY has really caught my eye on his last 3 starts, all just behind Great Endavour; He’s made a lot of ground up at the end of 2m5f in 3 very good races, and looked well capable of defying a mark up to 15lbs higher given a strongly run 3 miles. His jumping would need to improve though.
David Pipe has a excellent recent record in this event, and while one could say that his Great Endeavour may well develop into an ideal type for the race, JUNIOR could well improve a lot over fences and plainly didn’t stay 3 miles 3 furlongs miles fully last time around Cheltenham. The ground is sure to be less testing at Cheltenham on the first day of the festival, and quotes of 16/1 are very fair considering that he’s likely to go for the race.
Advice
1 pt each/way Junior for the William Hill Chase (16/1 Stan James)
1 pt each/way Sunnyhillboy for the William Hill Chase (16/1 William Hill)
David Pipe has a excellent recent record in this event, and while one could say that his Great Endeavour may well develop into an ideal type for the race, JUNIOR could well improve a lot over fences and plainly didn’t stay 3 miles 3 furlongs miles fully last time around Cheltenham. The ground is sure to be less testing at Cheltenham on the first day of the festival, and quotes of 16/1 are very fair considering that he’s likely to go for the race.
Advice
1 pt each/way Junior for the William Hill Chase (16/1 Stan James)
1 pt each/way Sunnyhillboy for the William Hill Chase (16/1 William Hill)
Saturday, 18 December 2010
Football Bets - 19th December 2010
Ask anyone if Blackpool would have been 10th in the table having played 7 games and you’d have been laughed out of town. Blackpool have been a revelation this season, playing with verve and enthusiasm and going forward without fear regardless of the opposition, a tactic which many promoted teams could learn from.
They would have liked to have played Tottenham a little earlier in the season – Spurs are unbeaten in their last eight – That said, have only won one game outside London this season in all competitions.
With so many imponderables, maybe 4/7 isn’t too short about both teams to score – Tottenham are up against a side who have kept just one clean sheet in the league this season - The Tangerines have scored two goals in five of their six home matches so far.
The last time I wrote this blog, Chelsea were leading by 5 points and looked set to destroy everyone in their wake. Fast forward a month, They have gone five league matches without a win for the first time since drawing their last five fixtures of the 2006/07 season, have also lost in the Champions League and must face Tottenham, Manchester United and Arsenal over Xmas in a set of games that will likely decide the title.
They face Manchester United at Stamford Bridge today, a game which will have a massive say in where the title goes. It’s a massive factor that this match is being played at Stamford Bridge, and also that they can now choose from a full Squad bar Alex (knee), Benayoun (Achilles), Borini (shoulder) and Bosingwa (hamstring).
They were much improved in performance against Tottenham last time out, in a game they should have won but for Didier Drogba’s penalty miss which augurs well given how hard Tottenham have been to beat at home this year.
Manchester United didn’t have to be good to beat a lacklustre Arsenal, and while they will have to be better to beat Chelsea, both teams are not at their best and Manchester United provide a totally different test, especially of a side that looks fragile to counter attacking, United’ forte.
That why backing the draw appeals so much at 23/10; Chelsea are not value 6/5 shots against Manchester United of all teams, and those odds are implying that Chelsea are at their best, which simply can’t be taken at value – They’ve only taken 6 points from 21 of late, which Manchester United have drawn all but one of their Premier League away games this season.
Recommendations
Both teams to score in Blackpool v Tottenham (4/7 Stan James)
Chelsea and Manchester United to Draw (23/10 General)
They would have liked to have played Tottenham a little earlier in the season – Spurs are unbeaten in their last eight – That said, have only won one game outside London this season in all competitions.
With so many imponderables, maybe 4/7 isn’t too short about both teams to score – Tottenham are up against a side who have kept just one clean sheet in the league this season - The Tangerines have scored two goals in five of their six home matches so far.
The last time I wrote this blog, Chelsea were leading by 5 points and looked set to destroy everyone in their wake. Fast forward a month, They have gone five league matches without a win for the first time since drawing their last five fixtures of the 2006/07 season, have also lost in the Champions League and must face Tottenham, Manchester United and Arsenal over Xmas in a set of games that will likely decide the title.
They face Manchester United at Stamford Bridge today, a game which will have a massive say in where the title goes. It’s a massive factor that this match is being played at Stamford Bridge, and also that they can now choose from a full Squad bar Alex (knee), Benayoun (Achilles), Borini (shoulder) and Bosingwa (hamstring).
They were much improved in performance against Tottenham last time out, in a game they should have won but for Didier Drogba’s penalty miss which augurs well given how hard Tottenham have been to beat at home this year.
Manchester United didn’t have to be good to beat a lacklustre Arsenal, and while they will have to be better to beat Chelsea, both teams are not at their best and Manchester United provide a totally different test, especially of a side that looks fragile to counter attacking, United’ forte.
That why backing the draw appeals so much at 23/10; Chelsea are not value 6/5 shots against Manchester United of all teams, and those odds are implying that Chelsea are at their best, which simply can’t be taken at value – They’ve only taken 6 points from 21 of late, which Manchester United have drawn all but one of their Premier League away games this season.
Recommendations
Both teams to score in Blackpool v Tottenham (4/7 Stan James)
Chelsea and Manchester United to Draw (23/10 General)
Philips Electronics Tara Hurdle 2010
1.50 Navan
Philips Electronics Tara Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €27,30
Pick: Aitmatiov (win)
Aitmatov: Usually runs to quite a useful standard, and looked set to win the Lismullen Hurdle at Navan for second consecutive season when handing victory to Oscar Dan Dan with last-flight fall; Can be forgiven flat run in Hatton’s Grace earlier this week and one to beat if over that.
Clan Tara: Did very well over hurdles, winning Grade 2; Showed promise in only three runs over fences, nearly taking advantage of a round of right handed jumping from Pandorama before being given an overly forceful ride in Grade 3 contest (put that right with authoritative win); Injured since, and going to need this badly.
Rigor Back Bob: Was very progressive over hurdles last term, winning 5 times including 3m Grade 3 at Punchestown in April; Looked set for much of the same this season after easy win on reappearance but has run miles before form on his last 2.
Made In Taipan: Has struggled to break into the top ranks over fences, although he did come forth in 2 Grade 21 races last year and no shame in being beaten 8 lengths (giving 8lbs) to Glencove Marina here last term; Will need this after 8 months off though.
Maggio: Front runner who is still a maiden over hurdles and is tilting at windmills here.
Stonemaster: Tough, reliable sort who topped off winning twice last season with an excellent fourth to Reve de Sivola in the Champion Novice at the Punchestown Festival; That form gives him excellent chance here if ready to run first time out.
Son Amix: Quickly made up into very useful juvenile last season, winning here by 28 lengths and then coming fourth in Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival; Has continued in same vein of form this year, although he was getting massive amount of weight from Shinrock Paddy when second at Naas on first run of season; Good second behind Alivian last time, for all the winner had masses in hand giving him 3lbs.
Alpine Glade: Has been transformed for switch to this yard, coming third behind Tarla on Grade 3 event at Punchestown Festival on debut an following up with easy wins in a minor event and handicap at Killarney; Better chance here.
VERDICT: If AITMATOV can be forgiven his flop in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle he should be good enough to beat Stonemaster, who is a big threat on excellent fourth to Reve de Sivola in the Champion Novice at the Punchestown Festival, and Son Amix, who shaped like he’d stay this on his seasonal debut.
Philips Electronics Tara Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €27,30
Pick: Aitmatiov (win)
Aitmatov: Usually runs to quite a useful standard, and looked set to win the Lismullen Hurdle at Navan for second consecutive season when handing victory to Oscar Dan Dan with last-flight fall; Can be forgiven flat run in Hatton’s Grace earlier this week and one to beat if over that.
Clan Tara: Did very well over hurdles, winning Grade 2; Showed promise in only three runs over fences, nearly taking advantage of a round of right handed jumping from Pandorama before being given an overly forceful ride in Grade 3 contest (put that right with authoritative win); Injured since, and going to need this badly.
Rigor Back Bob: Was very progressive over hurdles last term, winning 5 times including 3m Grade 3 at Punchestown in April; Looked set for much of the same this season after easy win on reappearance but has run miles before form on his last 2.
Made In Taipan: Has struggled to break into the top ranks over fences, although he did come forth in 2 Grade 21 races last year and no shame in being beaten 8 lengths (giving 8lbs) to Glencove Marina here last term; Will need this after 8 months off though.
Maggio: Front runner who is still a maiden over hurdles and is tilting at windmills here.
Stonemaster: Tough, reliable sort who topped off winning twice last season with an excellent fourth to Reve de Sivola in the Champion Novice at the Punchestown Festival; That form gives him excellent chance here if ready to run first time out.
Son Amix: Quickly made up into very useful juvenile last season, winning here by 28 lengths and then coming fourth in Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival; Has continued in same vein of form this year, although he was getting massive amount of weight from Shinrock Paddy when second at Naas on first run of season; Good second behind Alivian last time, for all the winner had masses in hand giving him 3lbs.
Alpine Glade: Has been transformed for switch to this yard, coming third behind Tarla on Grade 3 event at Punchestown Festival on debut an following up with easy wins in a minor event and handicap at Killarney; Better chance here.
VERDICT: If AITMATOV can be forgiven his flop in the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle he should be good enough to beat Stonemaster, who is a big threat on excellent fourth to Reve de Sivola in the Champion Novice at the Punchestown Festival, and Son Amix, who shaped like he’d stay this on his seasonal debut.
Navan Novice Hurdle 2010
1.15 Navan
Navan Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €48,750 - 7 run
Pick: Fully Funded (win)
Aughnacurraveel: Good form in bumpers and 2-3 hurdling so far, proving 4 lengths too good for Sizing Mexico (winner since) at Fairyhouse before not really firing in the Monksfield Hurdle here last month; Will need more to reverse form with winner from that day.
Fully Funded: Improved massively from hurdling debut when eased down to beat Couleur De La Loi by 5½ lengths in a Wexford maiden hurdle and did the same again when leading all the way for a comfortable win in the Monksfield Hurdle here last time, using easy lead to his advantage and digging deep to beat off what looked like decent field at the time; That effort gives him strong chance here.
He’s Our Man: Was still right in the mix when running his chance in the Monksfield Hurdle with a serious effort 2 out; Hard to know how he would have done but was 7/1 and lacklustre when only fourth in Maiden Hurdle last time.
Hidden Cyclone: Has been seriously impressive on all completed starts, making step up from maiden hurdle to Grade 3 company easily with commanding 6 length win in the ‘For AUCTION’ Novice Hurdle (over 2 miles); Step up in trip should suit and well fancied to make it 4 from 4, for all that this is a stronger affair than the one he won last time.
Imperial Shabra: Tough as old boots and made frame 4 times since winning twice in August, but barely stays this far and asking too much of him.
Oscars Well: Already better over hurdles than bumpers, having slammed the opposition by 9 lengths last time (well suited by the step up to this trip); Comes from good yard and well worth the step up in grade.
Sweet Shock: Has had 6 starts over hurdles but much better judged on his 2 hurdle wins this season, grinding out wins in novice hurdle and taking advantage of low weight in handicap; Could be ready to step forward again, but really needs a lot more.
VERDICT: The presence of the first, fourth and sixth from the Grade 2 Monksfield gives this race a solid form feel and Barometer for the future, aided by the presence of an unbeaten Grade 3 winner touted for better things. Hidden Cyclone looks all class based on his three wins so far, but FULLY FUNDED had a lot in the tank once challenged at Navan last time and may not necessarily need the lead to be seen at this best.
Navan Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €48,750 - 7 run
Pick: Fully Funded (win)
Aughnacurraveel: Good form in bumpers and 2-3 hurdling so far, proving 4 lengths too good for Sizing Mexico (winner since) at Fairyhouse before not really firing in the Monksfield Hurdle here last month; Will need more to reverse form with winner from that day.
Fully Funded: Improved massively from hurdling debut when eased down to beat Couleur De La Loi by 5½ lengths in a Wexford maiden hurdle and did the same again when leading all the way for a comfortable win in the Monksfield Hurdle here last time, using easy lead to his advantage and digging deep to beat off what looked like decent field at the time; That effort gives him strong chance here.
He’s Our Man: Was still right in the mix when running his chance in the Monksfield Hurdle with a serious effort 2 out; Hard to know how he would have done but was 7/1 and lacklustre when only fourth in Maiden Hurdle last time.
Hidden Cyclone: Has been seriously impressive on all completed starts, making step up from maiden hurdle to Grade 3 company easily with commanding 6 length win in the ‘For AUCTION’ Novice Hurdle (over 2 miles); Step up in trip should suit and well fancied to make it 4 from 4, for all that this is a stronger affair than the one he won last time.
Imperial Shabra: Tough as old boots and made frame 4 times since winning twice in August, but barely stays this far and asking too much of him.
Oscars Well: Already better over hurdles than bumpers, having slammed the opposition by 9 lengths last time (well suited by the step up to this trip); Comes from good yard and well worth the step up in grade.
Sweet Shock: Has had 6 starts over hurdles but much better judged on his 2 hurdle wins this season, grinding out wins in novice hurdle and taking advantage of low weight in handicap; Could be ready to step forward again, but really needs a lot more.
VERDICT: The presence of the first, fourth and sixth from the Grade 2 Monksfield gives this race a solid form feel and Barometer for the future, aided by the presence of an unbeaten Grade 3 winner touted for better things. Hidden Cyclone looks all class based on his three wins so far, but FULLY FUNDED had a lot in the tank once challenged at Navan last time and may not necessarily need the lead to be seen at this best.
Football Bets - 18th December 2010
With all jump racing apart from a high quality card at Navan being cancelled, the football blog is back to plug up the Interlull.
At the start of the season, nobody predicted that the 2 teams facing each-other in tomorrow’s early kick off would by sixth and seventh, in the table having played nearly half the season.
Despite having hosted Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United already this term, SUNDERLAND are yet to lose at home and they also hold the second best home defensive record.
While Steve Bruce’s defensive headache is set to continue, with Anton Ferdinand (hamstring) limping off against Fulham last week to join Titus Bramble and Michael Turner (both knee) on the side-lines, they have no such concerns in attack, with Welbeck, Bent and Gyan all set to start for the Black Cats, they must have a serious chance of beating their close rivals.
Bolton have made a brilliant start to the season – finding themselves in sixth position one game short of the halfway point in the campaign. One thing Bolton can no longer be accused of is being a boring ‘hit and hope’ team, as they’ve well and truly brought verve and fair to the table, their game against Blackpool being a prime example.
This would make them favourites to win, but they are up against a team which has been just as good at times this season and clearly their exceptional home advantage, buffered up by a truly excellent attacking line up could wing it for them. Given problems with Sunderland’s defensive options, maybe both teams to score could be well worth backing.
Newcastle may well have provided a crucial stabilizer to what had been a brilliant season with a 3-1 win over a lacklustre Liverpool at St James’s Park last weekend. Newcastle have never been easy to predict – They’ve drawn 2 of their last 4 home games – And it’s now very hard to know whether they are better at home or away.
A trip to BIRMINGHAM, who have won just four of their last 27 Premier League matches, but only lost one of their last 23 matches at home in the top flight, probably isn’t ideal for them and given their sometimes alarming drops in form from week to week, which they are even more liable to now they are in a period of change and adjustment, do not encourage.
This is a big risk – There’s every chance a good Newcastle could turn up against the lacklustre Birmingham we have seen of late, in which situation they would be far too good – But we can’t take this on trust and Birmingham have punished teams who go to St Andrews under form, taking Chelsea and Tottenham as prime examples.
I really wouldn’t be surprised to see BLACKBURN drop into a serious relegation battle following on from the disappointment of a derby defeat to Bolton followed by the shock of manager Sam Allardyce's stupid sacking; Despite losing to rivals Bolton 2-1 at the weekend, Rovers were still a relatively stable 13th position in the Premier League table so it came as a huge surprise on Monday when Big Sam was given his marching orders by Venky's, the Indian firm who recently bought the Ewood Park club. Such a rash sacking could really mess up a relatively light squad, and while Steve Keen won’t have it easy stabilizing things, if there was one team they would have picked to face, it would be the bottom team in West Ham.
Blackburn’s home record is what really seals the deal at such a short price; Blackburn are looking for a fourth consecutive home win, with Arsenal and Chelsea having been the only teams to have won at Ewood Park this season.
For anyone that needs telling of how stupid Sam’s sacking was - Rovers lost only six of their 38 Premier League matches at Ewood Park under Sam Allardyce - the same number of home defeats as Arsenal's Arsene Wenger had at the Emirates Stadium over the same period.
Sometimes the trappiest games can be the ones between 2 woefully out of form sides; Wigan v ASTON VILLA is a prime example. This is a game that’s usually won by the away side – That side is unbeaten in the last eight Premier League meetings, winning five, having won both games last season.
While both teams have won only 3 out of their last 21 combined league matches, Villa have won their last three away games against Wigan and were the most recent winners, beating West Brom 2-1 at home. Admittedly Gerard Houllier's side have won just one of their eight away trips in the league this season, and lost six, but personally Wigan have been truly shocking and are there for the taking. – That match has been postponed.
Given how poor LIVERPOOL have been for a large part of this season and year, it’s quite remarkable that with 17 points taken from a possible 24, Liverpool's home record is bettered only by Manchester United and Chelsea; That stat was makes them banker material against Fulham, should their game go ahead.
While the Reds boast impressive form at Anfield, where they have gone over seven hours without conceding in league and cup, Hodgson's side have rarely impressed on their travels; last weekend's tame defeat at Newcastle was their sixth loss in eight away league games.
Fulham are a far more pleasant task for them, for all they’ll be difficult to break down, and the after a month on the sidelines with a hamstring problem, and Fernando Torres is back after being rested in midweek. – That game is also abandoned.
Arsenal should have too much class for Stoke, but they’ve been shaky at the back this season as is the case a lot of the time; While they are in a very promising position for the title (considering some poor performances this season), you can guarantee they’ll be made to work 10 times harder for the points than odds suggest and they are best left alone at 2/7; I feel they can win silverware this season, and a tight league suits a team like them although they will have to improve on Monday’s lacklustre display.
Recommendations
Sunderland to beat Bolton (11/10 General)
Both teams to score in Sunderland v Bolton (5/6 Skybet)
Birmingham to beat Newcastle (8/5 Bet365, VCBet)
Blackburn to beat West Ham (5/6 Betfred, VCBet, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill)
At the start of the season, nobody predicted that the 2 teams facing each-other in tomorrow’s early kick off would by sixth and seventh, in the table having played nearly half the season.
Despite having hosted Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United already this term, SUNDERLAND are yet to lose at home and they also hold the second best home defensive record.
While Steve Bruce’s defensive headache is set to continue, with Anton Ferdinand (hamstring) limping off against Fulham last week to join Titus Bramble and Michael Turner (both knee) on the side-lines, they have no such concerns in attack, with Welbeck, Bent and Gyan all set to start for the Black Cats, they must have a serious chance of beating their close rivals.
Bolton have made a brilliant start to the season – finding themselves in sixth position one game short of the halfway point in the campaign. One thing Bolton can no longer be accused of is being a boring ‘hit and hope’ team, as they’ve well and truly brought verve and fair to the table, their game against Blackpool being a prime example.
This would make them favourites to win, but they are up against a team which has been just as good at times this season and clearly their exceptional home advantage, buffered up by a truly excellent attacking line up could wing it for them. Given problems with Sunderland’s defensive options, maybe both teams to score could be well worth backing.
Newcastle may well have provided a crucial stabilizer to what had been a brilliant season with a 3-1 win over a lacklustre Liverpool at St James’s Park last weekend. Newcastle have never been easy to predict – They’ve drawn 2 of their last 4 home games – And it’s now very hard to know whether they are better at home or away.
A trip to BIRMINGHAM, who have won just four of their last 27 Premier League matches, but only lost one of their last 23 matches at home in the top flight, probably isn’t ideal for them and given their sometimes alarming drops in form from week to week, which they are even more liable to now they are in a period of change and adjustment, do not encourage.
This is a big risk – There’s every chance a good Newcastle could turn up against the lacklustre Birmingham we have seen of late, in which situation they would be far too good – But we can’t take this on trust and Birmingham have punished teams who go to St Andrews under form, taking Chelsea and Tottenham as prime examples.
I really wouldn’t be surprised to see BLACKBURN drop into a serious relegation battle following on from the disappointment of a derby defeat to Bolton followed by the shock of manager Sam Allardyce's stupid sacking; Despite losing to rivals Bolton 2-1 at the weekend, Rovers were still a relatively stable 13th position in the Premier League table so it came as a huge surprise on Monday when Big Sam was given his marching orders by Venky's, the Indian firm who recently bought the Ewood Park club. Such a rash sacking could really mess up a relatively light squad, and while Steve Keen won’t have it easy stabilizing things, if there was one team they would have picked to face, it would be the bottom team in West Ham.
Blackburn’s home record is what really seals the deal at such a short price; Blackburn are looking for a fourth consecutive home win, with Arsenal and Chelsea having been the only teams to have won at Ewood Park this season.
For anyone that needs telling of how stupid Sam’s sacking was - Rovers lost only six of their 38 Premier League matches at Ewood Park under Sam Allardyce - the same number of home defeats as Arsenal's Arsene Wenger had at the Emirates Stadium over the same period.
Sometimes the trappiest games can be the ones between 2 woefully out of form sides; Wigan v ASTON VILLA is a prime example. This is a game that’s usually won by the away side – That side is unbeaten in the last eight Premier League meetings, winning five, having won both games last season.
While both teams have won only 3 out of their last 21 combined league matches, Villa have won their last three away games against Wigan and were the most recent winners, beating West Brom 2-1 at home. Admittedly Gerard Houllier's side have won just one of their eight away trips in the league this season, and lost six, but personally Wigan have been truly shocking and are there for the taking. – That match has been postponed.
Given how poor LIVERPOOL have been for a large part of this season and year, it’s quite remarkable that with 17 points taken from a possible 24, Liverpool's home record is bettered only by Manchester United and Chelsea; That stat was makes them banker material against Fulham, should their game go ahead.
While the Reds boast impressive form at Anfield, where they have gone over seven hours without conceding in league and cup, Hodgson's side have rarely impressed on their travels; last weekend's tame defeat at Newcastle was their sixth loss in eight away league games.
Fulham are a far more pleasant task for them, for all they’ll be difficult to break down, and the after a month on the sidelines with a hamstring problem, and Fernando Torres is back after being rested in midweek. – That game is also abandoned.
Arsenal should have too much class for Stoke, but they’ve been shaky at the back this season as is the case a lot of the time; While they are in a very promising position for the title (considering some poor performances this season), you can guarantee they’ll be made to work 10 times harder for the points than odds suggest and they are best left alone at 2/7; I feel they can win silverware this season, and a tight league suits a team like them although they will have to improve on Monday’s lacklustre display.
Recommendations
Sunderland to beat Bolton (11/10 General)
Both teams to score in Sunderland v Bolton (5/6 Skybet)
Birmingham to beat Newcastle (8/5 Bet365, VCBet)
Blackburn to beat West Ham (5/6 Betfred, VCBet, Paddy Power, Stan James, William Hill)
Thursday, 16 December 2010
Ascot Tomorrow - Bonus Post
I'm unable to post full previews, but there are 2 horses I like in the 2 Graded events at Ascot tomorrow, including a fascinating favourite in the Grade 2 Novice's Chase (2.10).
Mitie Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle (1.35) - Kid Cassidy looked like a real prospect at a very high grade when romping home at Newbury, but TOUBAB has achieved more on his three UK runs and should prove very hard to beat tomorrow. Iolith, a decent horse on the Flat in Germany, came good on his reappearance at Kempton and Frascati Park should prove tough to pass.
totepool Noel Novices' Chase (2.10) - A very interesting race. West With The Wind is progressive and has had a break but has only been winning summer handicaps before this; Bouggler is seen as a very smart prospect for chasing, but had to work very hard over this trip to win last time and while he should show up better, this race is altogether tougher; Cois Farraig had the fortune of both Spirit River falling and Celestial Halo running way below par last time, and Harry Tricker didn't even win his race last time.
All this leads me to SURFING, who was better than the bare result in a Grade 3 at Auteuli last time out and was a triple winner in France before that. There are possible jumping worries (long Run still can't jump) but he's a fascinating prospect and has a very good opportunity.
Mitie Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle (1.35) - Kid Cassidy looked like a real prospect at a very high grade when romping home at Newbury, but TOUBAB has achieved more on his three UK runs and should prove very hard to beat tomorrow. Iolith, a decent horse on the Flat in Germany, came good on his reappearance at Kempton and Frascati Park should prove tough to pass.
totepool Noel Novices' Chase (2.10) - A very interesting race. West With The Wind is progressive and has had a break but has only been winning summer handicaps before this; Bouggler is seen as a very smart prospect for chasing, but had to work very hard over this trip to win last time and while he should show up better, this race is altogether tougher; Cois Farraig had the fortune of both Spirit River falling and Celestial Halo running way below par last time, and Harry Tricker didn't even win his race last time.
All this leads me to SURFING, who was better than the bare result in a Grade 3 at Auteuli last time out and was a triple winner in France before that. There are possible jumping worries (long Run still can't jump) but he's a fascinating prospect and has a very good opportunity.
Bar One Racing Day 2010 - Review.
All sports are tough, and indeed it can just make you want to kick a cat across the room when you lose out, but it’s all about the creatures that give us the chance to watch such drama and we lost one of the best when Twist Magic, the dual Tingle Creek winner, suffered a fatal fall in the Peterborough Chase.
He was fantastic, a real character, and without his quirks he would have been more successful, but they made him all the more special when he did come home in front. RIP and Condolences to the Paul Nichols team.
Secondly, sorry for a failure to upload any previews for the Bar One racing day at Fairyhouse apart from the Royal Bond Hurdle and Hatton’s Grace; It may seem inconsequential but as you will have seen if you were prudent enough to follow the twitter feed, there were 4 winners in there.
Below are reviews of the 5 feature races - I hope you like them and any comments about these can be put to @keejayOV at twitter.com/KeejayOV
He was fantastic, a real character, and without his quirks he would have been more successful, but they made him all the more special when he did come home in front. RIP and Condolences to the Paul Nichols team.
Secondly, sorry for a failure to upload any previews for the Bar One racing day at Fairyhouse apart from the Royal Bond Hurdle and Hatton’s Grace; It may seem inconsequential but as you will have seen if you were prudent enough to follow the twitter feed, there were 4 winners in there.
Below are reviews of the 5 feature races - I hope you like them and any comments about these can be put to @keejayOV at twitter.com/KeejayOV
Bar One Racing Day 2010 - Hatton's Grace Hurdle - Analysis
The feature of the day here, and it promised to deliver with the 2 best Irish Hurdlers around and all of the top runners in the country (for this discipline) around, apart from Go Native. The pace wasn’t overly strong, result in many being in with a chance, but the first 2 (who are class acts in their own right) pulled nicely clear and the form looks like it’ll stand up.
This was the second time that HURRICANE FLY had beaten Solwhit, an achievement made all the more impressive considering it was just his third run in open company due to injury and ninth overall. It’s clear that he has the ability to run a big race in the Champion Hurdle, but a quote of 7-2 for the race from Stan James looks an overreaction to a performance that would seem only marginally better than his Rabobank Champion Hurdle winner on his last run, for all that he beat Solwhit by further.
He was keen for the first part of the race, but when they bunched up coming to the third last it was clear that he was going well, and when he was let clear at the second last, it was clearly only a question of how far. In the end he had to work hard to get past Solwhit, but he impressed with just how well he stuck to his task in willing fashion, keeping his head low and driving forward for victory, all qualities that encourage hugely for his chances at Cheltenham. How fit he remains will be very interesting, especially as connections plan to have the full campaign, going onto the December Festival Hurdle on December 29 and then the Irish Champion before Cheltenham.
It’s hard to think of a top level horse that’s more reliable than Solwhit, and this is the sixth time in his last seven that he’s been in the first 2, and it should be remembered that his Champion hurdle effort was coming after an infection suffered just 10 days earlier; He was travelling better than all bar Hurricane Fly before the latter got asked the question and would have been a clear winner but for him. You wouldn’t fancy him turning around the form with the winner if he stayed fit, but he shouldn’t be far away and will be a force to be reckoned with at all the major events this season. He’s only 6 too.
Voler La Vedette confirmed herself able to participate at the top table with this third placed finish, which makes her very interesting for all the top events this season given that she appeared to stay 2m4f fully, and goes on ground better than this; Should she go for the Mares race at the festival, she’d be the one to beat, with Quevga looking set to go for the World Hurdle. She looks more grown up this year.
This was another top class effort from Mourad with Katie Walsh on top, and this beckons very well for his chances this season; I doubt we’ll be seeing him over 3 miles much but the first 3 are all extremely high class horses and he should win plenty of graded events this season; I should think it won’t be too long before Katie Walsh wins a Grade 1 too; She could make up into a top class jockey.
Oscar Dan Dan hasn’t been in the same sort of form since last year’s win but he ran a bold race here, only fading after 2 out and looking he could shock a few when leading at the top of the home turn. He should land a decent event this season; For all he’s exposed.
Of the others, Jumbo Rio hasn’t run to his best for a good while and the Noel Meade pair Atitmatov and Donnas Palm clearly weren’t up to running their best; When found in better form, both will almost certainly land decent events at fair prices.
This was the second time that HURRICANE FLY had beaten Solwhit, an achievement made all the more impressive considering it was just his third run in open company due to injury and ninth overall. It’s clear that he has the ability to run a big race in the Champion Hurdle, but a quote of 7-2 for the race from Stan James looks an overreaction to a performance that would seem only marginally better than his Rabobank Champion Hurdle winner on his last run, for all that he beat Solwhit by further.
He was keen for the first part of the race, but when they bunched up coming to the third last it was clear that he was going well, and when he was let clear at the second last, it was clearly only a question of how far. In the end he had to work hard to get past Solwhit, but he impressed with just how well he stuck to his task in willing fashion, keeping his head low and driving forward for victory, all qualities that encourage hugely for his chances at Cheltenham. How fit he remains will be very interesting, especially as connections plan to have the full campaign, going onto the December Festival Hurdle on December 29 and then the Irish Champion before Cheltenham.
It’s hard to think of a top level horse that’s more reliable than Solwhit, and this is the sixth time in his last seven that he’s been in the first 2, and it should be remembered that his Champion hurdle effort was coming after an infection suffered just 10 days earlier; He was travelling better than all bar Hurricane Fly before the latter got asked the question and would have been a clear winner but for him. You wouldn’t fancy him turning around the form with the winner if he stayed fit, but he shouldn’t be far away and will be a force to be reckoned with at all the major events this season. He’s only 6 too.
Voler La Vedette confirmed herself able to participate at the top table with this third placed finish, which makes her very interesting for all the top events this season given that she appeared to stay 2m4f fully, and goes on ground better than this; Should she go for the Mares race at the festival, she’d be the one to beat, with Quevga looking set to go for the World Hurdle. She looks more grown up this year.
This was another top class effort from Mourad with Katie Walsh on top, and this beckons very well for his chances this season; I doubt we’ll be seeing him over 3 miles much but the first 3 are all extremely high class horses and he should win plenty of graded events this season; I should think it won’t be too long before Katie Walsh wins a Grade 1 too; She could make up into a top class jockey.
Oscar Dan Dan hasn’t been in the same sort of form since last year’s win but he ran a bold race here, only fading after 2 out and looking he could shock a few when leading at the top of the home turn. He should land a decent event this season; For all he’s exposed.
Of the others, Jumbo Rio hasn’t run to his best for a good while and the Noel Meade pair Atitmatov and Donnas Palm clearly weren’t up to running their best; When found in better form, both will almost certainly land decent events at fair prices.
Bar One Racing Day 2010 - Drinmore Chase - Analysis
A race that has only recently developed into a true indicator of the best talent in this division of Irish horses, with Trafford Lad and Pandorama being the last 2 winners, and probably the best winners of the race, Le Coudray and Nil Desperandum apart. As had been the story with the previous races on the card, the early pace wasn’t frenetic but that changed with Bob Lingo setting a decent clip and quickly bounding several lengths clear; Many were in with a chance in the home straight before the first 2 pulled clear; The fences at Fairyhouse are stiff and this was a true test of jumping.
JESSIES DREAM maintained his progression over fences with a first victory at the highest level for both horse and trainer Gordon Elliott, although his job was made significantly easier when favourite Mikael D'Haguenet fell at the last when upsides.
The winner, given an excellent ground-saving ride up the inner by Timmy Murphy came here off the back of an excellent debut in a strong novice Chase at Galway, having beaten the useful Corkseagh Royale and classy Venalmar with ease, and he built on that here, jumping fluently all the way round and looking a worthy winner of the race, beating off some decent rivals with ease although it’s debateable whether this turns out to be the best that Ireland have to offer in terms of staying novice chasers; Quotes of 16/1 for the RSA are very fair though, and you’d think that he be very hard to beat in races such as the Knight Frank over Christmas if he went there. It’s interesting that connections suggests that further would suit, and if he handles good ground (connections have said so) you’d have to consider him a top novice prospect.
Top class hurdler Mikael d'Haguenet developed really well over hurdles in 2008/9, winning all six starts after being brought over from France, including Grade 1s at Navan, Cheltenham (a very strong renewal of the Ballymore, beating Hennessy Gold Cup winner Diamond Harry and Karabak) and Punchestown, before he was injured. It would probably have been a winning return as well had he not crumpled on landing after the last (more a slip than an actual mistake), having jumped with verve and intent, and he looked much the best through the race, especially in the home straight. This was a tough ask for him and he can only get better, and based on this e's suffered no ill-effects from the splint and muscle problems that kept him off the track, once again showing the shrewdness of his trainer in not rushing him back.
Potential future targets are much more difficult though, given that he’s always had speed and gears and boasts of winning form over 2 miles; He’s as short as 6’s for the RSA, but he’s shown enough speed over hurdles (has won twice over 2 miles during novice campaign; One giving 8lbs to the runner up) and would almost certainly be suited by the strong pace and unique test of speed/stamina that the Arkle presents.
On the other hand, he’s never shaped like a horse short of stamina and given how he outstayed/outsped the high class pair in the Ballymore (who have both gone onto success over 3 miles) the RSA must be in the minds of the connections; He’s got the class to go and be a main contender for either and the Knight Frank Novice Chase over Christmas will tell all regards his festival prospects, for the opposition there is sure to be stronger and it will prove whether or not he stays 3m; He’s all class nonetheless.
Realt Dubh ran a solid race to be second and it would be harsh on him and his connections to take the gloss off it due to the fall of Mikael D’Haugenet; He made up a lot of good headway on the home turn, and while he was a clear third best at the last, he didn’t look short of the cursing speed for 2 miles and he’d be very interesting if sent down that route, having romped to an easy win in the Craddockstown Novice Chase over 2 miles on his last run.
Head Of The Posse was unbeaten previous to this, and doesn’t come out any the worse, for all that he was a clear second best to 4 good horses on the day. He can win plenty of races If placed right at a lower Grade, and he wants much less of a trip.
JESSIES DREAM maintained his progression over fences with a first victory at the highest level for both horse and trainer Gordon Elliott, although his job was made significantly easier when favourite Mikael D'Haguenet fell at the last when upsides.
The winner, given an excellent ground-saving ride up the inner by Timmy Murphy came here off the back of an excellent debut in a strong novice Chase at Galway, having beaten the useful Corkseagh Royale and classy Venalmar with ease, and he built on that here, jumping fluently all the way round and looking a worthy winner of the race, beating off some decent rivals with ease although it’s debateable whether this turns out to be the best that Ireland have to offer in terms of staying novice chasers; Quotes of 16/1 for the RSA are very fair though, and you’d think that he be very hard to beat in races such as the Knight Frank over Christmas if he went there. It’s interesting that connections suggests that further would suit, and if he handles good ground (connections have said so) you’d have to consider him a top novice prospect.
Top class hurdler Mikael d'Haguenet developed really well over hurdles in 2008/9, winning all six starts after being brought over from France, including Grade 1s at Navan, Cheltenham (a very strong renewal of the Ballymore, beating Hennessy Gold Cup winner Diamond Harry and Karabak) and Punchestown, before he was injured. It would probably have been a winning return as well had he not crumpled on landing after the last (more a slip than an actual mistake), having jumped with verve and intent, and he looked much the best through the race, especially in the home straight. This was a tough ask for him and he can only get better, and based on this e's suffered no ill-effects from the splint and muscle problems that kept him off the track, once again showing the shrewdness of his trainer in not rushing him back.
Potential future targets are much more difficult though, given that he’s always had speed and gears and boasts of winning form over 2 miles; He’s as short as 6’s for the RSA, but he’s shown enough speed over hurdles (has won twice over 2 miles during novice campaign; One giving 8lbs to the runner up) and would almost certainly be suited by the strong pace and unique test of speed/stamina that the Arkle presents.
On the other hand, he’s never shaped like a horse short of stamina and given how he outstayed/outsped the high class pair in the Ballymore (who have both gone onto success over 3 miles) the RSA must be in the minds of the connections; He’s got the class to go and be a main contender for either and the Knight Frank Novice Chase over Christmas will tell all regards his festival prospects, for the opposition there is sure to be stronger and it will prove whether or not he stays 3m; He’s all class nonetheless.
Realt Dubh ran a solid race to be second and it would be harsh on him and his connections to take the gloss off it due to the fall of Mikael D’Haugenet; He made up a lot of good headway on the home turn, and while he was a clear third best at the last, he didn’t look short of the cursing speed for 2 miles and he’d be very interesting if sent down that route, having romped to an easy win in the Craddockstown Novice Chase over 2 miles on his last run.
Head Of The Posse was unbeaten previous to this, and doesn’t come out any the worse, for all that he was a clear second best to 4 good horses on the day. He can win plenty of races If placed right at a lower Grade, and he wants much less of a trip.
Bar One Racing Day 2010 - John Durkan Memorial Chase - Analysis
A fascinating Renewal of a race that hasn’t had a truly great winner since Kicking King won it in 2004, for all that the recent list does include the likes of Noland and Joncol. The winner can sometimes disappoint during the season, but this renewal looked stronger than most and it’s fair to say that today’s victor will be a major player in Grade 1 races this season on both sides of the Irish Sea.
Following on from an impressive return to action in the Clonmel Oil Chase, TRANQUIL SEA set himself up for another crack at the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham in March when he recorded his first top-level success over fences. This was impressive too, as he was never in trouble afteralways following leader Cooldine and looked much the best horse 2 out, seeming set to win really after fairly winging the last but just idled for a lack of company infront, being much more dominant than the official margin suggested (he was eased before the line).
The obvious target now is the Ryanair Chase, and connections have already said that he will be sent there fresher than last year, when he flopped following an impressive win in the Newlands Chase on heavy ground; You’d have to say that this marks an improvement of sorts from his previous Career best in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, as he was a conclusive winner over last year’s third J’Y Vole, who sets a high standard; He has a big season ahead of him.
The runner up J’YVole left off right where she had been previously with a good effort, having been well placed into the race by Davy Condon as she travelled ominously well 2 out, before failing to find for any pressure until after the last; It’s likely she was flattered by the winner idling but in any case this was a very solid effort and she gives the form a very solid feel, having come third in the Ryanair; She’ll win again this season.
Roberto Goldback was a near top novice last season, winning a solid novice chase, romping home in the Grade 2 MCR Chase, and then coming third in the P.J Moriaty; A massive slog in the Powers Gold Cup ruined his chances for the rest of the season, but this effort and his reappearance run confirm that he’s none the worse for his hard year and connections can look forward to big things with him, although it should be noted that this gives a huge form boost to The Nightingale, who slammed him by 11 lengths at Down Royal earlier on in the season.
The run of Glencove Marina must have delighted trainer Eoin Grffin immensely; He jumped and travelled well on only his seventh start since 2008 and shaped like a major player 3 out, only to flatten out in the home straight; This was a career best over fences, and If he can be kept sound connections should reap the rewards of earlier promise shown over hurdles.
Given his fitness problems last season (infection brought him down after Christmas) this was an excellent run from Cooldine, who jumped well out In front at a steady pace and just got done for fitness and toe over the trip in the home straight, only being passed for fourth just before the winning post; Back over 3 miles, he should do well and may have been forgotten by some, and he makes plenty of appeal as a long term prospect for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Trafford Lad was helped by a steady gallop buy is probably still yet to recover from a tendon injury that kept him out after a promising treunt last year; He’s on the way back and has the class to do well in his sphere, although we still have yet to see how good he is following his problems. The same very much applies to Mossbank.
Following on from an impressive return to action in the Clonmel Oil Chase, TRANQUIL SEA set himself up for another crack at the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham in March when he recorded his first top-level success over fences. This was impressive too, as he was never in trouble afteralways following leader Cooldine and looked much the best horse 2 out, seeming set to win really after fairly winging the last but just idled for a lack of company infront, being much more dominant than the official margin suggested (he was eased before the line).
The obvious target now is the Ryanair Chase, and connections have already said that he will be sent there fresher than last year, when he flopped following an impressive win in the Newlands Chase on heavy ground; You’d have to say that this marks an improvement of sorts from his previous Career best in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, as he was a conclusive winner over last year’s third J’Y Vole, who sets a high standard; He has a big season ahead of him.
The runner up J’YVole left off right where she had been previously with a good effort, having been well placed into the race by Davy Condon as she travelled ominously well 2 out, before failing to find for any pressure until after the last; It’s likely she was flattered by the winner idling but in any case this was a very solid effort and she gives the form a very solid feel, having come third in the Ryanair; She’ll win again this season.
Roberto Goldback was a near top novice last season, winning a solid novice chase, romping home in the Grade 2 MCR Chase, and then coming third in the P.J Moriaty; A massive slog in the Powers Gold Cup ruined his chances for the rest of the season, but this effort and his reappearance run confirm that he’s none the worse for his hard year and connections can look forward to big things with him, although it should be noted that this gives a huge form boost to The Nightingale, who slammed him by 11 lengths at Down Royal earlier on in the season.
The run of Glencove Marina must have delighted trainer Eoin Grffin immensely; He jumped and travelled well on only his seventh start since 2008 and shaped like a major player 3 out, only to flatten out in the home straight; This was a career best over fences, and If he can be kept sound connections should reap the rewards of earlier promise shown over hurdles.
Given his fitness problems last season (infection brought him down after Christmas) this was an excellent run from Cooldine, who jumped well out In front at a steady pace and just got done for fitness and toe over the trip in the home straight, only being passed for fourth just before the winning post; Back over 3 miles, he should do well and may have been forgotten by some, and he makes plenty of appeal as a long term prospect for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Trafford Lad was helped by a steady gallop buy is probably still yet to recover from a tendon injury that kept him out after a promising treunt last year; He’s on the way back and has the class to do well in his sphere, although we still have yet to see how good he is following his problems. The same very much applies to Mossbank.
Bar One Racing Day 2010 - Royal Bond Novice Hurdle - Analysis
We have been deprived of racing in the last 2 or so weeks, so many thanks should go to all concerned in getting these 2 fantastic cards on (Cheltenham and today); The initiative shown by HRI, Bar One and many others has ended up in one of the best Irish cards bar the Punchestown festival.
A race that is better than much of the past renewals show formwise, for it has produced some very high class winners, notably Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Moscow Flyer and recently Hurricane Fly. This year’s race centred all around one horse, which can happen due to the time of year’s it’s run at; This year’s renewal had been delayed for more than 10 days, and with that, massive credit to all connected, especially Bar One, Fairyhouse and the HRI.
ZAIDPOUR needed little encouragement to land the Royal Bond, creating a superb impression and brining an army of inevitably short quotes with him for the Festival; He could go for the Neptune (4-1 favourite with William Hill) but seems much more likely to go for the Supreme Novices, having proven his exceptional speed with this bruising and easy win.
Many already see him as the main threat to Cue Card, indeed some see him as the winner, but what he beat today cannot be described as anything other than a useful field, with the exception of a previous Grade 3 winner in Mount Helicon, who’s already been exposed badly and never gave his true running. While he’s a tremendous prospect, he can’t be rated as anything other than classy in my opinion at this moment in time. We’ll learn a lot more about him when he goes for the PaddyPower.com Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on December 27, which for me will decide his festival prospects; Cue Card is still the one for me though at this moment, but it’s worth remembering that many of the best novices could still be yet to run, and there’s nearly always an unexposed horse that bursts onto the scene.
In second, Pineau De Re ran a career best for the connections behind Dunguib (Phillp Fenton/Brian O’Conell), building on a very impressive maiden hurdle win. What he’s achieved by being second we don’t know (he was laboured all the way around) but if the winner really is as good as they say, he’ll pay his way and more than hold his own in Grade 1 & 2 company, if connections place him right. He might need a trip though.
Perfect Smile shaped like a very good horse on the turn, Paul Carberry sitting motionless as he usually does with all bar Zaidpour hard at work and he shapes like good ground and exaggerated hold up tactics will suit, flattering to deceive behind Pineau De Re on the run in. He travels like a typical horse from the Meade Stable, and should pay his way over the season; He’s clearly got enough ability to land Graded Hurdles if ridden right.
There was little promise in the runs of The Shepherd King, late drifter Carloswayback, and Mount Helicon; The latter was clearly tired/amiss/exposed while Carloswayback was seriously disappointing given how he won first time out. He needs another chance.
A race that is better than much of the past renewals show formwise, for it has produced some very high class winners, notably Istabraq, Hardy Eustace, Moscow Flyer and recently Hurricane Fly. This year’s race centred all around one horse, which can happen due to the time of year’s it’s run at; This year’s renewal had been delayed for more than 10 days, and with that, massive credit to all connected, especially Bar One, Fairyhouse and the HRI.
ZAIDPOUR needed little encouragement to land the Royal Bond, creating a superb impression and brining an army of inevitably short quotes with him for the Festival; He could go for the Neptune (4-1 favourite with William Hill) but seems much more likely to go for the Supreme Novices, having proven his exceptional speed with this bruising and easy win.
Many already see him as the main threat to Cue Card, indeed some see him as the winner, but what he beat today cannot be described as anything other than a useful field, with the exception of a previous Grade 3 winner in Mount Helicon, who’s already been exposed badly and never gave his true running. While he’s a tremendous prospect, he can’t be rated as anything other than classy in my opinion at this moment in time. We’ll learn a lot more about him when he goes for the PaddyPower.com Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on December 27, which for me will decide his festival prospects; Cue Card is still the one for me though at this moment, but it’s worth remembering that many of the best novices could still be yet to run, and there’s nearly always an unexposed horse that bursts onto the scene.
In second, Pineau De Re ran a career best for the connections behind Dunguib (Phillp Fenton/Brian O’Conell), building on a very impressive maiden hurdle win. What he’s achieved by being second we don’t know (he was laboured all the way around) but if the winner really is as good as they say, he’ll pay his way and more than hold his own in Grade 1 & 2 company, if connections place him right. He might need a trip though.
Perfect Smile shaped like a very good horse on the turn, Paul Carberry sitting motionless as he usually does with all bar Zaidpour hard at work and he shapes like good ground and exaggerated hold up tactics will suit, flattering to deceive behind Pineau De Re on the run in. He travels like a typical horse from the Meade Stable, and should pay his way over the season; He’s clearly got enough ability to land Graded Hurdles if ridden right.
There was little promise in the runs of The Shepherd King, late drifter Carloswayback, and Mount Helicon; The latter was clearly tired/amiss/exposed while Carloswayback was seriously disappointing given how he won first time out. He needs another chance.
Bar One Racing Day 2010 - Hilly Way - Analysis
A race which had a very interesting roll call, Beef Or Salmon having won this twice recently, and the legend that is Central House having taken it in 2004. Let Yourself Go took the eight-runner field along at a decent rate, so the pace was clearly very strong and to be fast by 0.60 seconds was a fantastic achievement of ground this soft and gives a great look to the form, given the times for other races during the day.
GOLDEN SILVER became the second dual winner of this race and completed a fantastic treble for Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend, underlining the strength in depth that their yard can lay claim to.
Held up off a strong pace, he eased gradually into the race, still in fifth after jumping two out, but he was never in any real danger and scooted clear after jumping the last to come home on the bridle. It was an impressive win, and while the numbers meant he deserved his cutting to 12-1 (from 16) by Paddy Power for the Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March, he only had one serious rival.
Indeed, it was quite an effort to give 8lbs to Zaarito and beat him that easily, given that he should arguably have won at least 2 Grade 1 events but for sloppy jumping; This sets up a rematch with Big Zeb in the Dial – A Bet Chase oat Christmas, and that may be closer than many expect, if he was to literally repeat this effort; That said, I can’t see him winning the Champion Chase yet.
Zaarito had always shown great promise and would likely have fulfilled that had it not been for some shocking jumping at times, notably when coming down in the P.J Morartiy Chase at Leopardstown. He showed impressive cruising speed and jumped soundly but won’t be making any headway in the 2 mile division based on this; Where he goes is a hard question to answer.
The effort of Kempesmust have delighted Willie Mullins; He took time to fulfil his potential but was impressive when landing the 3m Novice Chase at the Punchestown festival (form boosted since by runner up) and should prove much better for a trip; Don’t leave him out of calculations for races like the Lexus, Irish Hennessy and even back end of season events if they cut up; He should land a couple of easier tasks too.
Let Yourself Go took the field along at a really good clip and ran a huge race, so is given an honourable mention for taking the field at a pace good enough to go under standard (4m11.40s) and he would proabaly have finished fourth had he not fallen; He might suffer for this next time though.
GOLDEN SILVER became the second dual winner of this race and completed a fantastic treble for Willie Mullins and jockey Paul Townend, underlining the strength in depth that their yard can lay claim to.
Held up off a strong pace, he eased gradually into the race, still in fifth after jumping two out, but he was never in any real danger and scooted clear after jumping the last to come home on the bridle. It was an impressive win, and while the numbers meant he deserved his cutting to 12-1 (from 16) by Paddy Power for the Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March, he only had one serious rival.
Indeed, it was quite an effort to give 8lbs to Zaarito and beat him that easily, given that he should arguably have won at least 2 Grade 1 events but for sloppy jumping; This sets up a rematch with Big Zeb in the Dial – A Bet Chase oat Christmas, and that may be closer than many expect, if he was to literally repeat this effort; That said, I can’t see him winning the Champion Chase yet.
Zaarito had always shown great promise and would likely have fulfilled that had it not been for some shocking jumping at times, notably when coming down in the P.J Morartiy Chase at Leopardstown. He showed impressive cruising speed and jumped soundly but won’t be making any headway in the 2 mile division based on this; Where he goes is a hard question to answer.
The effort of Kempesmust have delighted Willie Mullins; He took time to fulfil his potential but was impressive when landing the 3m Novice Chase at the Punchestown festival (form boosted since by runner up) and should prove much better for a trip; Don’t leave him out of calculations for races like the Lexus, Irish Hennessy and even back end of season events if they cut up; He should land a couple of easier tasks too.
Let Yourself Go took the field along at a really good clip and ran a huge race, so is given an honourable mention for taking the field at a pace good enough to go under standard (4m11.40s) and he would proabaly have finished fourth had he not fallen; He might suffer for this next time though.
Tuesday, 14 December 2010
Bar One Racing Day 2010 - Royal Bond Novice Hurdle
12.20 Fairyhouse
Bar One Racing Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €52,000
Pick: Zaidpour (win)
Carloswayback: One of a number of horses who made an exciting debut when slamming Knockfierna (dual winner since) by 5 lengths at Limerick in November, not coming of the bridle to do so; Rated one of main players on that basis.
Mount Helicon: Looked like a very smart recruit to the hurdling sphere when dotting up on the bridle first time out and handling step up to 3m with ease when landing a Grade 3 3fevent; Possibly exposed in weak for the grade hurdle at Cheltenham last time, possibly has been dismissed by many too soon.
Perfect Smile: Strong-travelling sort from notably powerful stable who didn't need to be at best to cruise home at Punchestown on reappearance (was fully entitled to do so);Has form smart enough to being him into mix, so given major respect here.
Pineau De Re: Showed no ill-effects from lengthy spell on side-lines when easy winner of Limerick maiden hurdle (was talented bumper performed to solid level 2 seasons back); Should improve for that and not dismissed, although this will be much harder.
The Shepherd King: Began building on bumper promise when making good debut over hurdles at Galway, travelling well before finding enough to win with bit in hand; Needs more than that to eb a threat today but every chance he should do so.
Zaidpour: Very high class recruit to jumping game (Winner on Flat in France for Alain de Royer-Dupre and half-brother to high-class hurdler Zaynar) who created deep impression when routing field by 12 lengths at Punchestown on debut; Field didn’t look to have much strength in depth but considering he was giving nearly stone to runner up, performance arguably best in field and one to beat.
VERDICT: A hard race to get a firm grip on, with all of the runners having a strong claim of some sort. None attracted more attention than ZAIDPOUR when winning on debut though, and he’s taken to make it 2 from 2 at the main expense of Carloswayback and Perfect Smile.
Bar One Racing Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €52,000
Pick: Zaidpour (win)
Carloswayback: One of a number of horses who made an exciting debut when slamming Knockfierna (dual winner since) by 5 lengths at Limerick in November, not coming of the bridle to do so; Rated one of main players on that basis.
Mount Helicon: Looked like a very smart recruit to the hurdling sphere when dotting up on the bridle first time out and handling step up to 3m with ease when landing a Grade 3 3fevent; Possibly exposed in weak for the grade hurdle at Cheltenham last time, possibly has been dismissed by many too soon.
Perfect Smile: Strong-travelling sort from notably powerful stable who didn't need to be at best to cruise home at Punchestown on reappearance (was fully entitled to do so);Has form smart enough to being him into mix, so given major respect here.
Pineau De Re: Showed no ill-effects from lengthy spell on side-lines when easy winner of Limerick maiden hurdle (was talented bumper performed to solid level 2 seasons back); Should improve for that and not dismissed, although this will be much harder.
The Shepherd King: Began building on bumper promise when making good debut over hurdles at Galway, travelling well before finding enough to win with bit in hand; Needs more than that to eb a threat today but every chance he should do so.
Zaidpour: Very high class recruit to jumping game (Winner on Flat in France for Alain de Royer-Dupre and half-brother to high-class hurdler Zaynar) who created deep impression when routing field by 12 lengths at Punchestown on debut; Field didn’t look to have much strength in depth but considering he was giving nearly stone to runner up, performance arguably best in field and one to beat.
VERDICT: A hard race to get a firm grip on, with all of the runners having a strong claim of some sort. None attracted more attention than ZAIDPOUR when winning on debut though, and he’s taken to make it 2 from 2 at the main expense of Carloswayback and Perfect Smile.
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