My first visit to Ascot and it’s a fantastic card in order for United House Gold Cup Day, with many good horses running.
The opening Novices Handicap Hurdle (1.50) is a good race for punters with five of the last eight favourites winning so close attention should be paid to the market. This should prove helpful for supporters of Lively Fling, who’s likely to go off close to the head of the market. It would be no surprise if he were to win this on his way to better things, but this isn’t the type to get too involved with early and I’d rather have a couple of each/way flyers. Handicap debutant PUERTO AZUL makes plenty of appeal for the in-form Oliver Sherwood yard following on from an interesting run when lightly handled last time. LIKE A HURRICANE has run three good races since winning a maiden hurdle at Fontwell in March and he was entitled to need his recent run when third at Uttoxeter earlier in the month. A switch to handicapping looks like a good move and he could take a big hand here.
The Ascot Underwriting Beginners' Chase (2.25) is a good race, with four likely winners to me. An honourable mention is given to Cois Farraig, who came close to Lush Life (ahead of Menorah) and Oscar Whisky (who was fourth in the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle). This is a stiff task on his chasing debut.
The next one to be previewed, is Othermix. On his 50/1 2nd in the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase, he would win and in well here but he was on a lenient weight and the fact that he had failed to win in 3 easier opportunities beforehand doesn’t help his profile. At the odds, he’s passed over.
With Country Zen needing to improve a bit (even allowing for the fact he’s improved for a breathing operation based on his only win last year)this would turn into a match between Radium and PAUSE AND CLAUSE, with the latter taken to come out on top due to his race – fitness and jumping experience this season. He jumped better as race wore on when second in Market Rasen novice chase on return and should be more to come, not to mention he’s actually 6lbs better off with Radium based on their meeting at the festival last season.
The Cushman & Wakefield Novices' Hurdle (For The John Travers' Memorial Trophy) (3.00) is another useful looking event. Considering that he was seventh in the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Fiulin should have made a better fist of his return at Cheltenham. Things are different today, with AP on aboard and in receipt of a lot of weight.
Recession Proof was an impressive winner on his jumps bow at Carlisle, Organisateur has won three of his four races for Paul Nicholls by a combined total of 37 lengths but his defeat by Astaracad in a handicap on his seasonal return suggests that he has his limitations and DUNRAVEN STORM wasn’t asked a single question to land the odds on his hurdling debut and can go close at the least here, having more in the locker for the in – from Hobbs yard (only beaten in Champion Bumper)
The williamhill.com Handicap Hurdle (Listed) (4.15) sees a top novice from last year return. If connections have any serious ambitions for GET ME OUT OF HERE in the Champion Hurdle or the Arkle, then he will win this off 150. Alsadaa, Oldrik and even Gilded Age may be in the grip of the handicapper while Tocca Ferro does have something to prove following his Imperial Cup blank, even if he has got excuses and is unexposed.
Yet another good listed is race in run at 4.45 in the shape of the Byrne Group Handicap Chase. You’re The Top made a pleasing reappearance over 2m5f at Cheltenham earlier this month and is entitled to strip fitter with that run under his belt but he has some decent types in attendance to deal with.
SIZING AFRICA could have been a useful novice chaser 2 years ago but injury curtailed that. He’s been slowly brought back and shaped well on just his second run in as many years and is a fascinating contender if this doesn’t come too soon afterwards.
OISEAU DE NUIT unseated on his recent return at Cheltenham when You’re The Top was fourth, but he'd travelled smoothly until 3 out on that occasion and this drop back in trip should be in his favour today.
And finally in the last (5.25) HEATHER ROYAL created a favourable impression when making a winning start to her career at Bangor in May and, with plenty more to come should be hard to beat despite a penalty.
Recommendations
1.50 Ascot
0.5 pts each/way Peurto Azul
0.5 pts each/way Like A Hurricane
2.25 Ascot
1 pt win Pause And Clause
3.00 Ascot
2 pts win Dunraven Storm
4.15 Ascot
3 pts win Get Me Out Of Here
4.50 Ascot
1 pt each/way Sizing Africa
4.50 Ascot
1 pt each/way Oiseau De Nuit
5.25 Ascot
2 pts win Heather Royal
Friday, 29 October 2010
United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase
3.40 Ascot
United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £56,330
Picks: From Dawn To Dusk (each/way), Take The Breeze (win)
Carruthers: Impressed with his easy front running victories as a novice, running creditably in RSA Chase when bad mistake put paid to his chances 3 out; Ran some excellent races last season in very high class races (fourth in Gold Cup, Second in Betfair Bowl) and should have every chance on return but was well beaten in similar race on return last season; Even higher in weights now.
Eric’s Charm: Likeable front runner who was better than ever last term despite advancing years, winning at Sandown and Newbury and being touted as a National contender in the process; Fell at first in National and slipped up at 5th when last seen, so lot on plate for seasonal return.
Can’t Buy Time: Very, very good when his jumping doesn’t let him down (Won 5 of last 9 completed starts, including valuable Cheltenham event); Faield to get round in GRAND National but will be close up with McCoy on top.
Possol: Has been aimed at Grand National but so talented over hurdles (came close third to Big Bucks last season at Aintree after fifth in Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle) that he bypassed that Target; Just as good over fences and could go well fresh if fit enough; Mark doesn’t allow a lot of leniency.
From Dawn To Dusk: Admirable but fragile sort (only 24 starts despite being 11 years old) who developed into a smart chaser last term, romping home on Grand National Day in 3 mile h’cap chase; Well beaten next time out in Cheltenham Grade 2 event (h’cap) but first 2 very useful and probably over the top; Yard in form and every chance.
Massini’s Maguire: Very talented but lightly raced when sent novice chasing with Phillip Hobbs; Achieved a lot in his novice season but only had one run last season (made several mistakes) and more needed on return for new yard, although he’s on a good mark if he jumps well and is fit.
Exmoor Ranger: Unexposed at beginning of last season and improved jumping helped him to take his form to a new level last season, winning at Newbury before being just edged out of things at Sandown by Monkerhostin; Looked to have no excuses on final start and personal best needed.
Take The Breeze: Done well since coming over from France and made really good start to life over fences, winning twice at Exeter and once at Newbury (again made all); seeimgly limitations exposed in Grade 1 Irish Arkle and also in Jewson Novices Handicap at the festival but ran very well in Mildmay at Aintree and well weighted to make his mark here.
Always Waining: Had been out of form for good while and took advantage of lenient mark when landing the Topham over the Grand National fences in April; Such good runs are few and far between, as he showed last time; Big player on his best.
Dover’s Hill: Fairly useful over both hurdles and fences; Didn’t need to do a lot to open his account with ease (from useful Hobbs horse Triggerman) last time, having fallen at last when looking sure to win last year; Will be fit and fresh for this, and must be hard to catch off effectively 10 stone (Sam Twiston Davies takes off 3lbs) if getting into rhythm so a very strong outsider.
Burren Legend: Posted 2 cracking efforts after a belated return in National Hunt Chase, winning good event at Newbury in late March and getting better of all but Ouzbeck at Cheltenham in April; Been given hike in weights since and this tougher, so will have work cut out.
Silmi: Has already make into a better chaser than hurdler, winning Listed event at Market Rasen in excellent style after wide margin Catterick win; Ground will suit but has been hiked in weights and stamina to prove.
Free World: Very much sort to come into his own as a chaser; Made encouraging return at Cheltenham earlier in month in big race and with that under his belt, worth a look from 5lbs out of the handicap.
VERDICT: Carruthers should have every chance on his peak form but he needed the run in a very similar race last year and is even higher in the weights. Massini’s Maguire showed a lot in his novice season but jumped terribly on his only run last season and is high enough in the weights, not to mention he will need the run, even if he’s fixed his fencing errors. FROM DAWN TO DUSK may be on a career high mark but romped home the last time he was over this trip, had excuses for his defeat to two good horses last season and is likely to be fit and well for this, with his yard firing well of late. TAKE THE BREEZE showed he could stay this trip when third in the Mildmay Novice’s Chase and is very leniently weighted off 145 considering he was well up to Graded class last season. Possol is a big player on peak form, while Can’t Buy Time can’t be ignored with McCoy on board. And last but not least, Dover’s Hill is the outsider to be on with a run under his belt and jumping issues fixed.
United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £56,330
Picks: From Dawn To Dusk (each/way), Take The Breeze (win)
Carruthers: Impressed with his easy front running victories as a novice, running creditably in RSA Chase when bad mistake put paid to his chances 3 out; Ran some excellent races last season in very high class races (fourth in Gold Cup, Second in Betfair Bowl) and should have every chance on return but was well beaten in similar race on return last season; Even higher in weights now.
Eric’s Charm: Likeable front runner who was better than ever last term despite advancing years, winning at Sandown and Newbury and being touted as a National contender in the process; Fell at first in National and slipped up at 5th when last seen, so lot on plate for seasonal return.
Can’t Buy Time: Very, very good when his jumping doesn’t let him down (Won 5 of last 9 completed starts, including valuable Cheltenham event); Faield to get round in GRAND National but will be close up with McCoy on top.
Possol: Has been aimed at Grand National but so talented over hurdles (came close third to Big Bucks last season at Aintree after fifth in Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle) that he bypassed that Target; Just as good over fences and could go well fresh if fit enough; Mark doesn’t allow a lot of leniency.
From Dawn To Dusk: Admirable but fragile sort (only 24 starts despite being 11 years old) who developed into a smart chaser last term, romping home on Grand National Day in 3 mile h’cap chase; Well beaten next time out in Cheltenham Grade 2 event (h’cap) but first 2 very useful and probably over the top; Yard in form and every chance.
Massini’s Maguire: Very talented but lightly raced when sent novice chasing with Phillip Hobbs; Achieved a lot in his novice season but only had one run last season (made several mistakes) and more needed on return for new yard, although he’s on a good mark if he jumps well and is fit.
Exmoor Ranger: Unexposed at beginning of last season and improved jumping helped him to take his form to a new level last season, winning at Newbury before being just edged out of things at Sandown by Monkerhostin; Looked to have no excuses on final start and personal best needed.
Take The Breeze: Done well since coming over from France and made really good start to life over fences, winning twice at Exeter and once at Newbury (again made all); seeimgly limitations exposed in Grade 1 Irish Arkle and also in Jewson Novices Handicap at the festival but ran very well in Mildmay at Aintree and well weighted to make his mark here.
Always Waining: Had been out of form for good while and took advantage of lenient mark when landing the Topham over the Grand National fences in April; Such good runs are few and far between, as he showed last time; Big player on his best.
Dover’s Hill: Fairly useful over both hurdles and fences; Didn’t need to do a lot to open his account with ease (from useful Hobbs horse Triggerman) last time, having fallen at last when looking sure to win last year; Will be fit and fresh for this, and must be hard to catch off effectively 10 stone (Sam Twiston Davies takes off 3lbs) if getting into rhythm so a very strong outsider.
Burren Legend: Posted 2 cracking efforts after a belated return in National Hunt Chase, winning good event at Newbury in late March and getting better of all but Ouzbeck at Cheltenham in April; Been given hike in weights since and this tougher, so will have work cut out.
Silmi: Has already make into a better chaser than hurdler, winning Listed event at Market Rasen in excellent style after wide margin Catterick win; Ground will suit but has been hiked in weights and stamina to prove.
Free World: Very much sort to come into his own as a chaser; Made encouraging return at Cheltenham earlier in month in big race and with that under his belt, worth a look from 5lbs out of the handicap.
VERDICT: Carruthers should have every chance on his peak form but he needed the run in a very similar race last year and is even higher in the weights. Massini’s Maguire showed a lot in his novice season but jumped terribly on his only run last season and is high enough in the weights, not to mention he will need the run, even if he’s fixed his fencing errors. FROM DAWN TO DUSK may be on a career high mark but romped home the last time he was over this trip, had excuses for his defeat to two good horses last season and is likely to be fit and well for this, with his yard firing well of late. TAKE THE BREEZE showed he could stay this trip when third in the Mildmay Novice’s Chase and is very leniently weighted off 145 considering he was well up to Graded class last season. Possol is a big player on peak form, while Can’t Buy Time can’t be ignored with McCoy on board. And last but not least, Dover’s Hill is the outsider to be on with a run under his belt and jumping issues fixed.
Poplar Square Chase 2010
2.35 Naas
Poplar Square Chase (grade 3) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €18,525
Captain Cee Bee: Hasn't had much luck since landing the Grade 1 Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 08’ but obviously top class and put together a slick round of jumping when winning Champion Novices Chase at Punchestown, salvaging a deserved success from his debut chasing season; Should maintain his perfect record at Naas but be interesting to see his jumping.
Archie Boy: Grade 3 winner last season and performed with credit in Grade 1 chases at Punchestown and Aintree festivals; has been well overrun in handicap company since but still useful sort.
Phsycho: Very useful hurdler (should have won Country Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival) who dotted up on 2 of his four chasing starts last season, and was going very well when coming down 6 out in the Ryanair Novice Chase last season (behind Captain Cee Bee); Useful sort who can make his presence felt in this race.
Catch Me: One of star Irish Hurdlers 2 seasons ago and looks to have taken to chasing (looked for all the world the winner until falling at the last on his second fencing race);Disappoint as favourite in Hatton’s Grace but still has a lot of promise over fences, as shown when only just beaten by Pandorama and Weapon’s Amnesty last time out (last Christmas); Will need the run but gets 4lbs and upwards from all rivals, which could count for a lot.
VERDICT: Archie Boy, Physcho and Catch Me are all talented enough to make it interesting (especially if he banks a fence or two), but CAPTAIN CEE BEE was one of the top novice chasers last season an defeat would be seriously damaging, even if he has valid excuses.
Poplar Square Chase (grade 3) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner €18,525
Captain Cee Bee: Hasn't had much luck since landing the Grade 1 Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 08’ but obviously top class and put together a slick round of jumping when winning Champion Novices Chase at Punchestown, salvaging a deserved success from his debut chasing season; Should maintain his perfect record at Naas but be interesting to see his jumping.
Archie Boy: Grade 3 winner last season and performed with credit in Grade 1 chases at Punchestown and Aintree festivals; has been well overrun in handicap company since but still useful sort.
Phsycho: Very useful hurdler (should have won Country Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival) who dotted up on 2 of his four chasing starts last season, and was going very well when coming down 6 out in the Ryanair Novice Chase last season (behind Captain Cee Bee); Useful sort who can make his presence felt in this race.
Catch Me: One of star Irish Hurdlers 2 seasons ago and looks to have taken to chasing (looked for all the world the winner until falling at the last on his second fencing race);Disappoint as favourite in Hatton’s Grace but still has a lot of promise over fences, as shown when only just beaten by Pandorama and Weapon’s Amnesty last time out (last Christmas); Will need the run but gets 4lbs and upwards from all rivals, which could count for a lot.
VERDICT: Archie Boy, Physcho and Catch Me are all talented enough to make it interesting (especially if he banks a fence or two), but CAPTAIN CEE BEE was one of the top novice chasers last season an defeat would be seriously damaging, even if he has valid excuses.
John Smith's Hurdle 2010
2.50 Wetherby
John Smith's Hurdle (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £18,528
Pick: Duc De Reginere (win)
Fair Along: Romped home in this race by 18 lengths last year, but unlike two seasons ago, he lost his form badly since; This a new season though and he’s got to be the one to beat, even under a penalty.
Tidal Bay: Looked to be similar to Big Bucks in the way that he was reverting to hurdles after losing a bit of form over fences; Won the Cleeve Hurdle on his first start over hurdles for about 2 seasons but then ran a shocker in World Hurdle; Not much better in Liverpool Hurdle in all honesty but will take all the beating on a good day.
Blazing Bailey: Looked set to make real waves at the top of the staying hurdle tree when winning Ladbrokes World Hurdle three years ago; Has since failed to really get into form, but freshness may help on seasonal debut.
Coastley: Winning pointer/hunter chaser who thrived over hurdles in the spring, winning at Sedgefield and Kelso; This too tough.
Duc De Reginere: Posted very taking success in Logn Distnace Hurdle last season and followed up with a remote but good second in the Long Walk; Since made hay over fences, (winning twice) but versatile enough and holds big chance here t weighted.
Kayf Aramis: Has been put into Graded company since winning the Pertemps Final in 2009, and has performed admirably, never disgracing himself in process; Fit from flat, the trip should suit, the ground should suit, and may not be too far away with yard flying this month.
Majestic Mayhem: Successful on his first 2 starts over hurdles (both at Hexham) but had gone off the boil since and this too hard on all evidence.
Raslan: Won valuable handicap for second successive season at Newton Abbot in August, and has backed that up with good performances both starts since, which is unusual for him; Has a lot on him to land this outside of handicap company.
VERDICT: Fair Along will take all the beating in this race if he turns up anywhere near the form he was last season in this, while Tidal Bay is easily good enough to land this on his best form, but both will find it very hard to give 11lbs to DUC DE REGINERE, who’s versatile enough to make this switch to hurdles work on his seasonal return. Kayf Aramis can run well with conditions in his favour.
John Smith's Hurdle (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £18,528
Pick: Duc De Reginere (win)
Fair Along: Romped home in this race by 18 lengths last year, but unlike two seasons ago, he lost his form badly since; This a new season though and he’s got to be the one to beat, even under a penalty.
Tidal Bay: Looked to be similar to Big Bucks in the way that he was reverting to hurdles after losing a bit of form over fences; Won the Cleeve Hurdle on his first start over hurdles for about 2 seasons but then ran a shocker in World Hurdle; Not much better in Liverpool Hurdle in all honesty but will take all the beating on a good day.
Blazing Bailey: Looked set to make real waves at the top of the staying hurdle tree when winning Ladbrokes World Hurdle three years ago; Has since failed to really get into form, but freshness may help on seasonal debut.
Coastley: Winning pointer/hunter chaser who thrived over hurdles in the spring, winning at Sedgefield and Kelso; This too tough.
Duc De Reginere: Posted very taking success in Logn Distnace Hurdle last season and followed up with a remote but good second in the Long Walk; Since made hay over fences, (winning twice) but versatile enough and holds big chance here t weighted.
Kayf Aramis: Has been put into Graded company since winning the Pertemps Final in 2009, and has performed admirably, never disgracing himself in process; Fit from flat, the trip should suit, the ground should suit, and may not be too far away with yard flying this month.
Majestic Mayhem: Successful on his first 2 starts over hurdles (both at Hexham) but had gone off the boil since and this too hard on all evidence.
Raslan: Won valuable handicap for second successive season at Newton Abbot in August, and has backed that up with good performances both starts since, which is unusual for him; Has a lot on him to land this outside of handicap company.
VERDICT: Fair Along will take all the beating in this race if he turns up anywhere near the form he was last season in this, while Tidal Bay is easily good enough to land this on his best form, but both will find it very hard to give 11lbs to DUC DE REGINERE, who’s versatile enough to make this switch to hurdles work on his seasonal return. Kayf Aramis can run well with conditions in his favour.
bet365 Charlie Hall Chase 2010
3.25 Wetherby
bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £57,010
Picks: Barbers Shop (win), Knockara Beau (each/way)
Deep Purple: Very progressive chase at beginning of last season, following up wide margin win in Scottish Champion Chase with hard fought success in last year’s renewal of this race; Jumped rivals into ground when winning Peterborough Chase and has had has excuses since (Bled in the King George and was short of room in Ryanair); Well over the top in Melling Chase but likely to run a big race in reappearance.
Knockara Beau: Tough and consistent hurdler who posted a huge new best when fifth in the Ballymore hurdler at the Cheltenham festival; Hasn’t posted a bad effort over fences yet and based on his form (just behind Burton Port in 2 big races last season) could make big impression when fresh.
Calgary Bay: Showed some immense promise in his novice chasing season before going well off the boil; Was seriously impressive when landing Doncaster handicap but well beaten in Gold Cup and Totesport Bowl since, and not likely to improve enough to win this.
Ollie Magern: Has been a model of consistency over past few runs and battled hard in Charlie Hall Chase but was well beaten by Deep Purple last year; Has since run well as usual, and sure to be going from the front again, but this a lot to be asking of him at 12 years old.
Barbers Shop: Rapid improver and made huge strides on his way to fishing seventh in the Gold Cup 2 years ago; Although he wasn’t disgraced on that occasion, it did raise stamina doubts that were hardly put to bed when fourth in Hennessey; Ran well enough again when third in King George but his Ryanair run leaves him with a lot to find (pulled up in Punchestown Gold Cup);l Yet to announce himself at top table but good record fresh and very well weighted here.
Nacarat: Impressed on first foray into Grade 1 company when nearly making all the running in the Melling Chase after a romp in the Racing Post chase; Went off boil since but has slowly came back into some sort of form afterwards and every chance here if he can get an uncontested lead, although that will be very tough with Ollie Magern in the field.
That’s Rhythm: Wide margin winner of Bangor handicap chase but this likely to prove too far for him.
The Tother One: Quickly made up into very smart chaser after a lay-off, coming arguably unlucky second in Badger Ales Trophy and behind The Packadge at Cheltenham; Ruined his chances by jumping badly a lot last season and while he’s likely to run well off a handy weight this opposition is tough and jumping a big worry; Stamina will help.
VERDICT: One of the most intriguing renewals of this race for a while. Last year’s winner Deep Purple should go well but having to give away 4lbs to a closely matched field won’t help him. Nacarat was coming back to form last season and will be hard to beat if getting a lead, but he’s incredibly reliant on going right handed and in any case, Ollie Magern will race him all the way, meaning he will have to burn him out or vice versa. BARBERS SHOP has yet to announce himself at the top table fully band has a stamina doubt or two but he’s tremendously well weighted in relation to a few here and doesn’t suffer for lack of fitness or jumping errors. The Other One will love the stamina test on offer tomorrow but sloppy jumping may well cost him again in this. One to keep an eye on is KNOCKARA BEAU, who will have liked the break he got last season and is with an each/way flyer if one or two aren’t on their game.
bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1) (5YO plus)
Winner £57,010
Picks: Barbers Shop (win), Knockara Beau (each/way)
Deep Purple: Very progressive chase at beginning of last season, following up wide margin win in Scottish Champion Chase with hard fought success in last year’s renewal of this race; Jumped rivals into ground when winning Peterborough Chase and has had has excuses since (Bled in the King George and was short of room in Ryanair); Well over the top in Melling Chase but likely to run a big race in reappearance.
Knockara Beau: Tough and consistent hurdler who posted a huge new best when fifth in the Ballymore hurdler at the Cheltenham festival; Hasn’t posted a bad effort over fences yet and based on his form (just behind Burton Port in 2 big races last season) could make big impression when fresh.
Calgary Bay: Showed some immense promise in his novice chasing season before going well off the boil; Was seriously impressive when landing Doncaster handicap but well beaten in Gold Cup and Totesport Bowl since, and not likely to improve enough to win this.
Ollie Magern: Has been a model of consistency over past few runs and battled hard in Charlie Hall Chase but was well beaten by Deep Purple last year; Has since run well as usual, and sure to be going from the front again, but this a lot to be asking of him at 12 years old.
Barbers Shop: Rapid improver and made huge strides on his way to fishing seventh in the Gold Cup 2 years ago; Although he wasn’t disgraced on that occasion, it did raise stamina doubts that were hardly put to bed when fourth in Hennessey; Ran well enough again when third in King George but his Ryanair run leaves him with a lot to find (pulled up in Punchestown Gold Cup);l Yet to announce himself at top table but good record fresh and very well weighted here.
Nacarat: Impressed on first foray into Grade 1 company when nearly making all the running in the Melling Chase after a romp in the Racing Post chase; Went off boil since but has slowly came back into some sort of form afterwards and every chance here if he can get an uncontested lead, although that will be very tough with Ollie Magern in the field.
That’s Rhythm: Wide margin winner of Bangor handicap chase but this likely to prove too far for him.
The Tother One: Quickly made up into very smart chaser after a lay-off, coming arguably unlucky second in Badger Ales Trophy and behind The Packadge at Cheltenham; Ruined his chances by jumping badly a lot last season and while he’s likely to run well off a handy weight this opposition is tough and jumping a big worry; Stamina will help.
VERDICT: One of the most intriguing renewals of this race for a while. Last year’s winner Deep Purple should go well but having to give away 4lbs to a closely matched field won’t help him. Nacarat was coming back to form last season and will be hard to beat if getting a lead, but he’s incredibly reliant on going right handed and in any case, Ollie Magern will race him all the way, meaning he will have to burn him out or vice versa. BARBERS SHOP has yet to announce himself at the top table fully band has a stamina doubt or two but he’s tremendously well weighted in relation to a few here and doesn’t suffer for lack of fitness or jumping errors. The Other One will love the stamina test on offer tomorrow but sloppy jumping may well cost him again in this. One to keep an eye on is KNOCKARA BEAU, who will have liked the break he got last season and is with an each/way flyer if one or two aren’t on their game.
bet365.com E.B.F. Montrose Fillies' Stakes 2010
3.10 Newmarket
bet365.com E.B.F. Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £14,192
Picks: Blue Bunting (win), Nabah (each/way)
Aneeedah: Fourth in valuable sales race over 7f on just her second career start, an impressive effort considering as she was a maiden; Didn’t have to work to win Yarmouth maiden last time out and smart prospect who comes here as the one to beat.
Blue Bunting: Shaped really well when runner-up on debut on the July Course here behind Theyskens Theory of all horses, who has gone on to win a Group 3 and come third in the Fillies’ Mile; Pulled clear with a subsequent winner when going one better following month, so must be high on list.
Elas Diamond: Confirmed the promise of her debut second over C&D when a wide-margin winner at Nottingham 16 days ago; Step up in trip should bring about better run from her and one to keep in mind.
Face Reality: Impressive on debut in face of market drift at Newbury and shaped nicely at same track in listed event last month, pulling too hard before sticking to task well; Will need to settle much better to satay this trip but better than she showed last time.
Isolate: Has shown marked progression in each of 3 maidens coming unplaced, fifth, and was always in command over 7f at Leicester 25 days ago; Bare form not good enough and does look exposed.
Matula: Justified strong support in ready fashion on debut at Ffos Las over this trip last month (ahead of Pursuing); Needs to improve but sure fire bet to do so and not discounted.
Mystic Winds: Found an easier opening than most when getting better of odds on fav at Newcastle (heavy ground); Will improve but needs to do so, and while booking of Fallon is interesting she’s left along today.
Nabah: Made giant step forward for debut when coming fourth behind Cape Dollar, Cochabamba and I Love Me in Rockfel Stakes; Shaped as if 1 mile would suit on that occasion and possible improver again.
Parvana: Made highly promising start when third on debut in 7f Newbury minor event last month; Will up her game and most dangerous of the maidens in this race, although the previous winners look tough to beat.
Pursuing: Sure to benefit from easy introduction on heavy ground at Newcastle (behind Mystic Winds) and while she will improve past that rival, surprise to see her win as the first time out winners look very useful.
Whey Sauce: Another who needed the debut when fourth (made eye-catching headway 3 furlongs from home); Asking lot of her to go trouble the principles, even though she should improve.
Whisper Louise: Only once out of the first 3 in 8 starts, progressing to win maiden at Windsor in July and nursery at Doncaster; Might not stay and exposed in any case.
VERDICT: Hard to get some firm conclusions with so many unexposed types in attendance. The first time out/previous winners are taken over the maidens at this point, although Parvana is obviously going to improve a lot for a good introduction. Aneedah sets a good standard, while Elas Diamond is well up to this level, but BLUE BUNTING was unlucky to bump into a group class horse in Theyskens Theory on debut and has plenty of rom to improve on an impressive win since. NABAH is still a maiden but ran the best race from any of this field when fourth in the Rockfel, and is worth an each/way punt. Tale Untold also deserves a good mention.
bet365.com E.B.F. Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £14,192
Picks: Blue Bunting (win), Nabah (each/way)
Aneeedah: Fourth in valuable sales race over 7f on just her second career start, an impressive effort considering as she was a maiden; Didn’t have to work to win Yarmouth maiden last time out and smart prospect who comes here as the one to beat.
Blue Bunting: Shaped really well when runner-up on debut on the July Course here behind Theyskens Theory of all horses, who has gone on to win a Group 3 and come third in the Fillies’ Mile; Pulled clear with a subsequent winner when going one better following month, so must be high on list.
Elas Diamond: Confirmed the promise of her debut second over C&D when a wide-margin winner at Nottingham 16 days ago; Step up in trip should bring about better run from her and one to keep in mind.
Face Reality: Impressive on debut in face of market drift at Newbury and shaped nicely at same track in listed event last month, pulling too hard before sticking to task well; Will need to settle much better to satay this trip but better than she showed last time.
Isolate: Has shown marked progression in each of 3 maidens coming unplaced, fifth, and was always in command over 7f at Leicester 25 days ago; Bare form not good enough and does look exposed.
Matula: Justified strong support in ready fashion on debut at Ffos Las over this trip last month (ahead of Pursuing); Needs to improve but sure fire bet to do so and not discounted.
Mystic Winds: Found an easier opening than most when getting better of odds on fav at Newcastle (heavy ground); Will improve but needs to do so, and while booking of Fallon is interesting she’s left along today.
Nabah: Made giant step forward for debut when coming fourth behind Cape Dollar, Cochabamba and I Love Me in Rockfel Stakes; Shaped as if 1 mile would suit on that occasion and possible improver again.
Parvana: Made highly promising start when third on debut in 7f Newbury minor event last month; Will up her game and most dangerous of the maidens in this race, although the previous winners look tough to beat.
Pursuing: Sure to benefit from easy introduction on heavy ground at Newcastle (behind Mystic Winds) and while she will improve past that rival, surprise to see her win as the first time out winners look very useful.
Whey Sauce: Another who needed the debut when fourth (made eye-catching headway 3 furlongs from home); Asking lot of her to go trouble the principles, even though she should improve.
Whisper Louise: Only once out of the first 3 in 8 starts, progressing to win maiden at Windsor in July and nursery at Doncaster; Might not stay and exposed in any case.
VERDICT: Hard to get some firm conclusions with so many unexposed types in attendance. The first time out/previous winners are taken over the maidens at this point, although Parvana is obviously going to improve a lot for a good introduction. Aneedah sets a good standard, while Elas Diamond is well up to this level, but BLUE BUNTING was unlucky to bump into a group class horse in Theyskens Theory on debut and has plenty of rom to improve on an impressive win since. NABAH is still a maiden but ran the best race from any of this field when fourth in the Rockfel, and is worth an each/way punt. Tale Untold also deserves a good mention.
Bet365 Ben Marshall Stakes 2010
2.35 Newmarket
Bet365 Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £19,870
Pick: Kingsfort (win)
Alexandaros: Class horse at his best, with his Lockinge Stakes second the highlight of his runs last year and seemingly retained that form judged on his Group 2 win a Group 2 second at Meydan in Dubai (added to Diomed second); Since come third in Group 1 but shocking in Joel Stakes last time and might have had long season.
Mia’s Boy: Came runner-up in 3 listed races earlier in season, and showed more ability than seen for a while when fourth at Doncaster last Saturday; This demands more.
Secrecy: Building a solid/consistent profile, winning minor events at Kempton and Salisbury on 2 of last 3 starts and coming third in Sovereign Stakes, second in Listed race at Haydock 2 starts back; Dettori has taken Alexandaros but Spencer decent choice and holds decent form.
The Cheka: Looked exceptional on debut as a 2 year old and has only had 3 runs since; Only seen once as a 3 year old, getting better of very useful horse in Ashram here in Conditions Stakes; Ran a very promising race in Bet365 Mile but was a little disappointing in Lockinge; Been disappointing since.
Balducci: Has been extremely progressive this spring, winning a Newmarket maiden and hot 1m Haydock handicap; Disappointing since but back to form when chasing Secrecy home last time; Not out of it.
Kingsfort: Looked set for big things when just getting better of Chabal in National Stakes last year, but gained injury after being transferred to Godolphin; Travelled strongly for a long long way on belated return 4 weeks ago and plenty of improvement can be expected.
Nationalism: Flopped when favourite for Cambridgeshire, having been subject of massive gamble when winning over 9f at Goodwood in September; Still possibly unexposed and not discounted by blinkers not good sign up in class.
Letty: Useful Hungarian filly, won 3 times at Budapest this year and also runner-up in Swiss 1000 Guineas; Needs a lot more than when ninth in Group 3 here a fortnight ago and also might have problem settling.
VERDICT: A tight affair which may well be dominated by Godolphin runners. Alexandaros and Secrecy are entitled to take big hands, while there’s a good chance we haven’t seen the best of Nationalism, but KINGSFORT travelled well for a long way on his belated return and could go close with improvement.
Bet365 Ben Marshall Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £19,870
Pick: Kingsfort (win)
Alexandaros: Class horse at his best, with his Lockinge Stakes second the highlight of his runs last year and seemingly retained that form judged on his Group 2 win a Group 2 second at Meydan in Dubai (added to Diomed second); Since come third in Group 1 but shocking in Joel Stakes last time and might have had long season.
Mia’s Boy: Came runner-up in 3 listed races earlier in season, and showed more ability than seen for a while when fourth at Doncaster last Saturday; This demands more.
Secrecy: Building a solid/consistent profile, winning minor events at Kempton and Salisbury on 2 of last 3 starts and coming third in Sovereign Stakes, second in Listed race at Haydock 2 starts back; Dettori has taken Alexandaros but Spencer decent choice and holds decent form.
The Cheka: Looked exceptional on debut as a 2 year old and has only had 3 runs since; Only seen once as a 3 year old, getting better of very useful horse in Ashram here in Conditions Stakes; Ran a very promising race in Bet365 Mile but was a little disappointing in Lockinge; Been disappointing since.
Balducci: Has been extremely progressive this spring, winning a Newmarket maiden and hot 1m Haydock handicap; Disappointing since but back to form when chasing Secrecy home last time; Not out of it.
Kingsfort: Looked set for big things when just getting better of Chabal in National Stakes last year, but gained injury after being transferred to Godolphin; Travelled strongly for a long long way on belated return 4 weeks ago and plenty of improvement can be expected.
Nationalism: Flopped when favourite for Cambridgeshire, having been subject of massive gamble when winning over 9f at Goodwood in September; Still possibly unexposed and not discounted by blinkers not good sign up in class.
Letty: Useful Hungarian filly, won 3 times at Budapest this year and also runner-up in Swiss 1000 Guineas; Needs a lot more than when ninth in Group 3 here a fortnight ago and also might have problem settling.
VERDICT: A tight affair which may well be dominated by Godolphin runners. Alexandaros and Secrecy are entitled to take big hands, while there’s a good chance we haven’t seen the best of Nationalism, but KINGSFORT travelled well for a long way on his belated return and could go close with improvement.
Thursday, 28 October 2010
Racing Today - 28th October 2010
The jumps season has already shown why we love it so much, with the likes of Sizing Europe, Monet’s Garden, Alberta’s Run, Medermit and Festival winners Cue Card and Bertie’s Dream. Tell Massini, sent off favourite for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle in which he was pulled up (had a throat infection) makes his chasing debut at Stratford today (4.20). Two or three of his rivals are talented enough to make it interesting but defeat would be very disappointing.
There are a couple of very nice novice events on the card, with some fascinating runners taking part. Owen Glendower sets the bar very high in the 2m Novices’ event (3.50), and he also has some decent opposition in the shape of Paul Nicholls’ French hurdler San Remo Bello, winner of a 4-y-o hurdle at Le Lion-d'Angers in May for Yannick Fouin. Another French import, RENARD D’IRLANDE, in the most interesting to me. A half-brother to 2m hurdle winner O’Hara, he cost €40,000 as a 3-y-o, and won both starts in bumpers in French Provinces for Jerry Planque over 11f. At 8/1’s he’s too big to be left alone.
Another promising horse from last year reappears in the shape of Champion Bumper ninth Made In Time, who was also second behind impressive winner Al Ferof in the Newbury Grade 2 bumper earlier that season. He’s a warm order and will win if fit, but that’s no certainty and he hasn’t been screaming for this extended trip either.
Schalkesbrough is a point winner who struck at the first time of asking in bumpers when making all at Chepstow in April 2009. He hasn’t been seen since, but will improve and already knows how to jump a hurdle.
Time For Spring has already won a point over a long trip (beckons well for stamina) while he looks sure to be ready for this, but he’s not the one for me. SIZING SANTIAGO idled a lot when winning on his one and only bumper start at Fontwell, but he must improve a lot for that run and is worth an each/way flyer at 6/1.
Recommendations
3.50 Stratford
Renard D’Irlande (each/way)
5.25 Stratford
Sizing Santiago (each/way)
There are a couple of very nice novice events on the card, with some fascinating runners taking part. Owen Glendower sets the bar very high in the 2m Novices’ event (3.50), and he also has some decent opposition in the shape of Paul Nicholls’ French hurdler San Remo Bello, winner of a 4-y-o hurdle at Le Lion-d'Angers in May for Yannick Fouin. Another French import, RENARD D’IRLANDE, in the most interesting to me. A half-brother to 2m hurdle winner O’Hara, he cost €40,000 as a 3-y-o, and won both starts in bumpers in French Provinces for Jerry Planque over 11f. At 8/1’s he’s too big to be left alone.
Another promising horse from last year reappears in the shape of Champion Bumper ninth Made In Time, who was also second behind impressive winner Al Ferof in the Newbury Grade 2 bumper earlier that season. He’s a warm order and will win if fit, but that’s no certainty and he hasn’t been screaming for this extended trip either.
Schalkesbrough is a point winner who struck at the first time of asking in bumpers when making all at Chepstow in April 2009. He hasn’t been seen since, but will improve and already knows how to jump a hurdle.
Time For Spring has already won a point over a long trip (beckons well for stamina) while he looks sure to be ready for this, but he’s not the one for me. SIZING SANTIAGO idled a lot when winning on his one and only bumper start at Fontwell, but he must improve a lot for that run and is worth an each/way flyer at 6/1.
Recommendations
3.50 Stratford
Renard D’Irlande (each/way)
5.25 Stratford
Sizing Santiago (each/way)
Wednesday, 27 October 2010
Racing Today - 27th October 2010
Punchestown
2.15 – DATOKEPE wasn't disgraced behind Cadspeed on his debut in a hurdle race at Gowran in April and has backed that up with a couple of decent efforts in bumpers since, so looks worth a chance here.
2.45 - Not For Converting is a likely sort to win this having impressed over bumpers, while Rivage D’or proved his stamina for this sort of trip when failing by just a head to open his account in a Killarney maiden last time, (clear of the remainder)but POINTILLISTE was much the best of these on the flat and is entitled to have learnt a great deal from his debut sixth over timber at Navan last month.
3.15 - A fascinating beginners chase here and none make more appeal than NOBLE PRINCE, who held his own in a number of top hurdle races last season (from 2m1f to 3m) and was just over 7 lengths behind Quevega in a Grade 1 last time. He’s got the scope to jump a fence and should be right there.
Otay Kawn wasn't quite as good over hurdles but he has run five times over fences already and has certainly shown enough to suggest that he can close, while Healy’s Bar was third in a Grade 1 (bang in contention when falling 3 out at Xmas).
The biggest threat must be Saludos, who made all in a maiden/listed hurdle before a close second to Hollo Ladies in a Grade 1 around Christmas. His second to Luska Lad was excellent form and he’s always looked a chaser.
Recommendations
Back Datokepe to win the 2.15 Punchestown (9/4 Bet365)
Back Pointillste to win the 2.45 Punchestown (5/4 General)
Back Noble Prince to win the 3.15 Punchestown (5/4 Ladbrokes)
2.15 – DATOKEPE wasn't disgraced behind Cadspeed on his debut in a hurdle race at Gowran in April and has backed that up with a couple of decent efforts in bumpers since, so looks worth a chance here.
2.45 - Not For Converting is a likely sort to win this having impressed over bumpers, while Rivage D’or proved his stamina for this sort of trip when failing by just a head to open his account in a Killarney maiden last time, (clear of the remainder)but POINTILLISTE was much the best of these on the flat and is entitled to have learnt a great deal from his debut sixth over timber at Navan last month.
3.15 - A fascinating beginners chase here and none make more appeal than NOBLE PRINCE, who held his own in a number of top hurdle races last season (from 2m1f to 3m) and was just over 7 lengths behind Quevega in a Grade 1 last time. He’s got the scope to jump a fence and should be right there.
Otay Kawn wasn't quite as good over hurdles but he has run five times over fences already and has certainly shown enough to suggest that he can close, while Healy’s Bar was third in a Grade 1 (bang in contention when falling 3 out at Xmas).
The biggest threat must be Saludos, who made all in a maiden/listed hurdle before a close second to Hollo Ladies in a Grade 1 around Christmas. His second to Luska Lad was excellent form and he’s always looked a chaser.
Recommendations
Back Datokepe to win the 2.15 Punchestown (9/4 Bet365)
Back Pointillste to win the 2.45 Punchestown (5/4 General)
Back Noble Prince to win the 3.15 Punchestown (5/4 Ladbrokes)
Tuesday, 26 October 2010
Jumps Season - Horses to follow.
I did this earlier on (in August) but nobody really read it them and now's a better time to do so, with everyone having at least one eye on the jumping action now.. Only one horse has been added to the to follow list, with 3 new additions to the 'others'
If you have any opinions, tweet me back at twitter.com/KeejayOV - Happy reading.
1. Sizing Europe – Always shown promise and was well on his way to winning Champion Hurdle when breaking down coming to two out, but was a revelation over fences last season, jumping like a stag when winning 5 out of his 6 chase starts, including a strong renewal of the Arkle. Stepped up into open all aged company with credit at the Punchestown Festival, coming third after seeming set to forge clear, having given a big leap at the second last. I thought there were no excuses but apparently he might have liked a stronger gallop and the sky could still be the limit this season. Made a promising enough debut when losing out to China Rock but still being aimed at longer trips. Hopefully he goes back down to 2 miles.
2. Peddlers Cross – Bolted up on all of his hurdling starts last season, looking like an immense prospect when bolting up by 19 lengths in heavy ground. Proved he was top novice hurdler when winning Neptune (strong renewal, form promising) and then being one of few horses to follow up at Aintree festival. Could be anything but looks like a possible champion hurdle contender for now (Fighting Fifth first target).
3. Big Bucks – Only “champion” of 2009 to actually follow up in 2010, winning Long Distance, Long Walk, World and Liverpool Hurdles. Looked even better in those races and set to dominate again, although thougher tests could be around the corner in the shape of Quevga.
4. What A Friend – Always been a quirky type but had talent in abundance, and proved he was up to top table level when winning Lexus Chase at Christmas. Followed that up with Success at Aintree festival, jumping smoothly and actually finding fair bit off the bridle. Wind operation may well have sorted his head carriage out, and that can only help him regarding festival racing. Major player this year.
5. Go Native – Already proven his festival credentials, having won the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle 2 years ago. Showed best form of hurdlers throughout last season, winning Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdles before disappointing at Cheltenham. He had a valid excuses however, landing at an awkward angle after the second and stretching a muscle, the reason behind his disappointment. Already had an each/way for the Champion at 20’s in places and many horses have disappointed in Champion only to come back and this horse has a level of form that entitles him to win major hurdles again this season.
6. Pandorama – Was the one time favourite for Neptune Hurdle, before Mikael D’Augenet came onto the scene. Got off to excellent start over fences though, winning beginners chase and making instant step up to Grade 1 company when winning Drinmore Novices Chase. Showed how hard he could battle when challenged win winning Grade 1 Knight Frank Novice Chase at Leopardstown, beating the eventual RSA winner Weapon’s Amnesty. Would have been my bet in the RSA but for him getting injured, but still holds all the potential and great jumper too. Goes for Hennessy with big shout, especially if he can get in under 11-4 with Denman and Neptune running.
7. Mikael D’Augenet - Had looked something special since moving to Ireland from France, winning all of his four races in his first Irish novice hurdling season, three of which had come in Graded company (Barry & Sandra Kelly Memorial Novice Hurdle, Slaney Novice Hurdle, Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle). Looked superstar when bolting up in Ballymore Hurdle and Land Rover Hurdle at Cheltenham and Punchestown, before being injured last season, Wisely saved for this campaign, and has scope, speed, class, and jumping to make it at top level chasing.
8. Zaynar – Looked top class when winning Triumph Hurdle 2 seasons ago, and looked set for big things after winning Ascot and Reelkeel Hurdles. Shocked at 1/18 at Kelso but that run best forgotten, and excellent third in Champion and Aintree Hurdles, looking ready for step up to 3 miles in latter, Wherever he goes, top prospect.
9. Quevga – Pulled off a feat that many great horses would struggle to emulate when winning at Cheltenham on her seasonal reappearance, dominating mare’s hurdle field. Then boloted up in Ladbrokes World Hurdle, making her the main threat to Big Bucks.
10. Tarla - Lightly raced and will be unknown to most, having come through same route as Mikael D'Haguenet from France but made instant winning start in Grade 3 mares hurdle at Punchestown festival, jumping well and winning cosily. With Quevga set to go for the World Hurdle, she looks to have the race at her Mercy.
11. Loosen My Load – Became a fancy of mine for the Supreme Novices when holding the late challenge of Some Present in Grade 2 at Open meeting last year. Failed to build on that again, finding ground too soft and lacking fitness at Fairyhouse in April, before coming a respectable fifth at Punchestown festival. Clear that chasing was his game and his 3 faultless victories have confirmed that, last coming in a Grade 3 at Punchestown. Being talked about going for longer trips, but hopefully he’ll be an Arkle horse.
Others that didn’t make the list that a lot like/mentioned or that I like personally.
Kauto/Denman – What is there we don’t already know??? It would be a brilliant boost for racing if they were back to their best though, but they will have it tough trying to win the Gold Cup at 11 years of age.
Binocular –Amazingly high class on his day, winning the Champion Hurdle in style of possibly great hurdler. Inconsistency is his biggest problem though, and he is very hard to catch at his peak, as was shown by last season’s blowouts. May well become a great hurdler, or a value e/w bet If he blows out again.
Big Zeb – Just like Binocular, very high class on his day and easily up to Champion Chase Class as he showed when romping away with it this year. Jumping may still be an issue though but one very much to be treated like Binocular (back e/w for Champion race at festival if blowing out through season)
Imperial Commander – Another who is very high class in right conditions and it’s not necessarily just at Cheltenham, seeing as he pushed Kauto to a nose at Haydock in the Betfair Chase. Will have it tougher this season though, and trends are against him.
Menorah – Clearly a high class hurdler but lucky to win Supreme (Get Me Out Of Here came very late, Dunguib would have won for slicker hurdling and better trip) and disappointingly beaten with no penalty at Aintree.
Dunguib – I’m still adamant that he would have won the Supreme Novices had he jumped better or not gone so wide. He may have been well over the top at Punchestown (hard race at Festival) and ruined his chances by pulling very hard. Will be very interesting to see how he performs when settled, and I wouldn't be so quick to write him off, with connections planning to keep him fresh for Cheltenham. A good e/w flyer for the Champion.
Cue Card – Hacked up on debut by 6 lengths before smashing his rivals by eight lengths on only his second career start at the Cheltenham Festival in the Champion Bumper. The form looks good enogh at this stage (second Grade 2 winner beforehand, 5th and 6th were 1-2 in Aintree Bumper and 19th had won Grade 1 since with 7th and 13th winning as well). Made an extremely impressive debut on Sunday at Aintree, jumping well and cruising to victory. Could be anything but a lot of hype has been put on him and best left along until further runs against better horses.
Reve De Sivola – Did very well in major novice hurdles all last season and nice win in Challow Hurdle conserving he hit every hurdle but was eventually well beaten in second at the festival behind Peddlers Cross (also well behind Tell Massini) and had the advantage of a previous season’s racing.
Captain Cee Bee – Obviously top class and put together a slick round of jumping when winning Champion Novices Chase at Punchestown. However, blood vessel problems (has blown out twice in past) are major worry, as is his jumping and I don’t think he would have come third in the actual champion chase.
Walkon – For all he looked like a chaser in the making before being injured, he was beaten pretty well by Zaynar and that is going to be no easy division to make waves in this year, so he has it all to do.
Long Run – Looked amazing when romping home with Feltham and Kingmaker Novices Chases, and still ran very well when third in the RSA Chase, having made mistakes at the 6th, 12th, 16th and 18th fences. Looks sure to go well but needs confirmation of assured jumping. Would still have to be a top prospect and personally hoping that he goes for the Paddy Power.
Mad Max – Had always been a chaser in making and anything he achieved in hurdling was going to be a bonus. Made perfect start to fencing at Kempton, so was disappointing when beaten at Doncaster but was giving away 7lbs to winner. Was travelling really well in the Arkle before blundering, and still finished fourth, correcting that by slamming Somersby at Aintree over 2m4f. Looks serious prospect but Somersby was kicked at Start of Manifesto Novices Chase, weakening form a little.
Oscar Whiskey – Made a very good start to his career, winning two national hunt flat races and two hurdle races, nothing coming under pressure in any of the four contests. Travelled very well when stepped up to top level in the Supreme Novice’s, and stuck on gamely for fourth. Still unexposed and would be a very interesting fencing prospect.
Mille Chief - Winner of both his completed starts as a juvenile and well fancied for the Triumph Hurdle before being ruled out by lameness. Made a pleasing comeback and very unexposed but doesn't look as good as some of King's better juveniles yet. Will be interesting.
Merdermit - Came home 88 lengths clear of Alaskan Prince in three-runner race at Aintree but that was farcical race with Rock Noir being a non runner and Wessex King falling. He made many mistakes too, giving the while race a rather unsatisfactory feel. Will improve for schooling and can go long way, although tougher tests by far to come.
Celestial Halo - Notably classy front runner who only just missed out on Champion Hurdle in 2009 and held his form admirably afterwards, winning Grade 2 by 11 lengths. Fell on chasing debut after jumping well for main and while he will do better in future, jumping is already slight worry.
Neptune Collonges – Been out for more than a year but would have to be a threat to all if coming back fit, being a triple Punchestown Gold Cup winner and also winning other multiple Grade 1’s. Goes for the Hennesy, and possibly an each/way bet.
If you have any opinions, tweet me back at twitter.com/KeejayOV - Happy reading.
1. Sizing Europe – Always shown promise and was well on his way to winning Champion Hurdle when breaking down coming to two out, but was a revelation over fences last season, jumping like a stag when winning 5 out of his 6 chase starts, including a strong renewal of the Arkle. Stepped up into open all aged company with credit at the Punchestown Festival, coming third after seeming set to forge clear, having given a big leap at the second last. I thought there were no excuses but apparently he might have liked a stronger gallop and the sky could still be the limit this season. Made a promising enough debut when losing out to China Rock but still being aimed at longer trips. Hopefully he goes back down to 2 miles.
2. Peddlers Cross – Bolted up on all of his hurdling starts last season, looking like an immense prospect when bolting up by 19 lengths in heavy ground. Proved he was top novice hurdler when winning Neptune (strong renewal, form promising) and then being one of few horses to follow up at Aintree festival. Could be anything but looks like a possible champion hurdle contender for now (Fighting Fifth first target).
3. Big Bucks – Only “champion” of 2009 to actually follow up in 2010, winning Long Distance, Long Walk, World and Liverpool Hurdles. Looked even better in those races and set to dominate again, although thougher tests could be around the corner in the shape of Quevga.
4. What A Friend – Always been a quirky type but had talent in abundance, and proved he was up to top table level when winning Lexus Chase at Christmas. Followed that up with Success at Aintree festival, jumping smoothly and actually finding fair bit off the bridle. Wind operation may well have sorted his head carriage out, and that can only help him regarding festival racing. Major player this year.
5. Go Native – Already proven his festival credentials, having won the Supreme Novice’s Hurdle 2 years ago. Showed best form of hurdlers throughout last season, winning Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdles before disappointing at Cheltenham. He had a valid excuses however, landing at an awkward angle after the second and stretching a muscle, the reason behind his disappointment. Already had an each/way for the Champion at 20’s in places and many horses have disappointed in Champion only to come back and this horse has a level of form that entitles him to win major hurdles again this season.
6. Pandorama – Was the one time favourite for Neptune Hurdle, before Mikael D’Augenet came onto the scene. Got off to excellent start over fences though, winning beginners chase and making instant step up to Grade 1 company when winning Drinmore Novices Chase. Showed how hard he could battle when challenged win winning Grade 1 Knight Frank Novice Chase at Leopardstown, beating the eventual RSA winner Weapon’s Amnesty. Would have been my bet in the RSA but for him getting injured, but still holds all the potential and great jumper too. Goes for Hennessy with big shout, especially if he can get in under 11-4 with Denman and Neptune running.
7. Mikael D’Augenet - Had looked something special since moving to Ireland from France, winning all of his four races in his first Irish novice hurdling season, three of which had come in Graded company (Barry & Sandra Kelly Memorial Novice Hurdle, Slaney Novice Hurdle, Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle). Looked superstar when bolting up in Ballymore Hurdle and Land Rover Hurdle at Cheltenham and Punchestown, before being injured last season, Wisely saved for this campaign, and has scope, speed, class, and jumping to make it at top level chasing.
8. Zaynar – Looked top class when winning Triumph Hurdle 2 seasons ago, and looked set for big things after winning Ascot and Reelkeel Hurdles. Shocked at 1/18 at Kelso but that run best forgotten, and excellent third in Champion and Aintree Hurdles, looking ready for step up to 3 miles in latter, Wherever he goes, top prospect.
9. Quevga – Pulled off a feat that many great horses would struggle to emulate when winning at Cheltenham on her seasonal reappearance, dominating mare’s hurdle field. Then boloted up in Ladbrokes World Hurdle, making her the main threat to Big Bucks.
10. Tarla - Lightly raced and will be unknown to most, having come through same route as Mikael D'Haguenet from France but made instant winning start in Grade 3 mares hurdle at Punchestown festival, jumping well and winning cosily. With Quevga set to go for the World Hurdle, she looks to have the race at her Mercy.
11. Loosen My Load – Became a fancy of mine for the Supreme Novices when holding the late challenge of Some Present in Grade 2 at Open meeting last year. Failed to build on that again, finding ground too soft and lacking fitness at Fairyhouse in April, before coming a respectable fifth at Punchestown festival. Clear that chasing was his game and his 3 faultless victories have confirmed that, last coming in a Grade 3 at Punchestown. Being talked about going for longer trips, but hopefully he’ll be an Arkle horse.
Others that didn’t make the list that a lot like/mentioned or that I like personally.
Kauto/Denman – What is there we don’t already know??? It would be a brilliant boost for racing if they were back to their best though, but they will have it tough trying to win the Gold Cup at 11 years of age.
Binocular –Amazingly high class on his day, winning the Champion Hurdle in style of possibly great hurdler. Inconsistency is his biggest problem though, and he is very hard to catch at his peak, as was shown by last season’s blowouts. May well become a great hurdler, or a value e/w bet If he blows out again.
Big Zeb – Just like Binocular, very high class on his day and easily up to Champion Chase Class as he showed when romping away with it this year. Jumping may still be an issue though but one very much to be treated like Binocular (back e/w for Champion race at festival if blowing out through season)
Imperial Commander – Another who is very high class in right conditions and it’s not necessarily just at Cheltenham, seeing as he pushed Kauto to a nose at Haydock in the Betfair Chase. Will have it tougher this season though, and trends are against him.
Menorah – Clearly a high class hurdler but lucky to win Supreme (Get Me Out Of Here came very late, Dunguib would have won for slicker hurdling and better trip) and disappointingly beaten with no penalty at Aintree.
Dunguib – I’m still adamant that he would have won the Supreme Novices had he jumped better or not gone so wide. He may have been well over the top at Punchestown (hard race at Festival) and ruined his chances by pulling very hard. Will be very interesting to see how he performs when settled, and I wouldn't be so quick to write him off, with connections planning to keep him fresh for Cheltenham. A good e/w flyer for the Champion.
Cue Card – Hacked up on debut by 6 lengths before smashing his rivals by eight lengths on only his second career start at the Cheltenham Festival in the Champion Bumper. The form looks good enogh at this stage (second Grade 2 winner beforehand, 5th and 6th were 1-2 in Aintree Bumper and 19th had won Grade 1 since with 7th and 13th winning as well). Made an extremely impressive debut on Sunday at Aintree, jumping well and cruising to victory. Could be anything but a lot of hype has been put on him and best left along until further runs against better horses.
Reve De Sivola – Did very well in major novice hurdles all last season and nice win in Challow Hurdle conserving he hit every hurdle but was eventually well beaten in second at the festival behind Peddlers Cross (also well behind Tell Massini) and had the advantage of a previous season’s racing.
Captain Cee Bee – Obviously top class and put together a slick round of jumping when winning Champion Novices Chase at Punchestown. However, blood vessel problems (has blown out twice in past) are major worry, as is his jumping and I don’t think he would have come third in the actual champion chase.
Walkon – For all he looked like a chaser in the making before being injured, he was beaten pretty well by Zaynar and that is going to be no easy division to make waves in this year, so he has it all to do.
Long Run – Looked amazing when romping home with Feltham and Kingmaker Novices Chases, and still ran very well when third in the RSA Chase, having made mistakes at the 6th, 12th, 16th and 18th fences. Looks sure to go well but needs confirmation of assured jumping. Would still have to be a top prospect and personally hoping that he goes for the Paddy Power.
Mad Max – Had always been a chaser in making and anything he achieved in hurdling was going to be a bonus. Made perfect start to fencing at Kempton, so was disappointing when beaten at Doncaster but was giving away 7lbs to winner. Was travelling really well in the Arkle before blundering, and still finished fourth, correcting that by slamming Somersby at Aintree over 2m4f. Looks serious prospect but Somersby was kicked at Start of Manifesto Novices Chase, weakening form a little.
Oscar Whiskey – Made a very good start to his career, winning two national hunt flat races and two hurdle races, nothing coming under pressure in any of the four contests. Travelled very well when stepped up to top level in the Supreme Novice’s, and stuck on gamely for fourth. Still unexposed and would be a very interesting fencing prospect.
Mille Chief - Winner of both his completed starts as a juvenile and well fancied for the Triumph Hurdle before being ruled out by lameness. Made a pleasing comeback and very unexposed but doesn't look as good as some of King's better juveniles yet. Will be interesting.
Merdermit - Came home 88 lengths clear of Alaskan Prince in three-runner race at Aintree but that was farcical race with Rock Noir being a non runner and Wessex King falling. He made many mistakes too, giving the while race a rather unsatisfactory feel. Will improve for schooling and can go long way, although tougher tests by far to come.
Celestial Halo - Notably classy front runner who only just missed out on Champion Hurdle in 2009 and held his form admirably afterwards, winning Grade 2 by 11 lengths. Fell on chasing debut after jumping well for main and while he will do better in future, jumping is already slight worry.
Neptune Collonges – Been out for more than a year but would have to be a threat to all if coming back fit, being a triple Punchestown Gold Cup winner and also winning other multiple Grade 1’s. Goes for the Hennesy, and possibly an each/way bet.
Carling Cup Bets - Tuesday 26th October 2010
A cracking night last night, with AC Milan, Cardiff, and Real Sociedad all winning along with Famous Name romping home in the Listed race at Leopardstown. Ruling was a tad dissapointing but will make a lovely 3 year old next season, while Bertie's Dream found a tough intro to chasing too much. He jumped well though.
The Carling Cup is never easy to get right but as we are in such good form it’s got to be worth a crack.
West Brom are usually adept at springing upsets, having won at the Emirates and come from 2 goals down at Manchester United, and in this competition they have actually beaten Manchester City at home.
The baggies’ away from is a different proposition, and Leicester have improved since Sven Goran Eriksson took charge. A 2-0 loss away to Swansea is no disgrace, and a fast start might well be on the cards with WBA’s first centre – back Jonas Olsson being injured, maybe the way to go is to back Leicester to score first, as the 5/4 about that happening is far more appealing than the 3/10 on show for West Brom, especially with Odemwingie out. The Foxes have netted first in four of their last five games while the Baggies have conceded the opening goal in eight of the 11 games they've played in all competitions.
SWANSEA will be roared on by a travelling army of 5,000 supporters at the DW Stadium on Tuesday night as they look to put one over on former boss and player Roberto Martinez, and an upset isn’t entirely off the cards seeing as Wigan’s squad may not have an awful lot of strength in depth this year.
That army of travelling fans will do whole help of good to Swansea, and given that Wigan have been knocked out of this competition by lower division opposition in three out of the last four seasons, Swansea are well worth backing with the draw no bet option and if that’s the way we go, then back both teams to score as well.
BIRMINGHAM must be licking their lips at the prospect of a place in the quarter-finals of the Carling Cup. They have been pretty fortunate with the way this competition has panned out for them so far, having previously been handed home ties against League One sides Rochdale and MK Dons. They had to battle to beat Rochdale but were efficient in beating MK Dons 3-1 and must seriously be fancying their chances of getting through. Back them with a -1 goal deficit at 10/11.
Lastly on the Carling Cup front, Manchester United face Wolves. Last year it was Danny Welbeck's second-half strike which proved the difference in that encounter as United recovered from the dismissal of Fabio da Silva to register a 1-0 victory.
United's record in this competition is intimidating. They have lifted the trophy in three of the last five seasons and last suffered a knock-out defeat in September 2007, when Championship side Coventry stunned them at Old Trafford.
Sir Alex Ferguson is expected to rest several first-team regulars ahead of Saturday evening's vitally-important league match against Tottenham, and while Mick McCarthy will do the same, Utd’s side will be far superior and are worth backing with a -1 goal deficit at 10/11 with Paddy Power.
Recommendations
Leicester to score first against West Brom (20/21 Boylesports)
Swansea to beat Wigan Athletic draw no bet (7/4 Stan James)
Both teams to score in Wigan v Swansea (5/6 Blue Sq, Stan James, 888Sport, Bwin)
Birmingham giving a -1 goal start to Brentford (11/10 Sportingbet, Blue Sq, 888Sport, Bwin, Betfred)
Manchester United giving a -1 goal start to Wolves (5/6 Boylesports, Blue Sq, 888Sport)
The Carling Cup is never easy to get right but as we are in such good form it’s got to be worth a crack.
West Brom are usually adept at springing upsets, having won at the Emirates and come from 2 goals down at Manchester United, and in this competition they have actually beaten Manchester City at home.
The baggies’ away from is a different proposition, and Leicester have improved since Sven Goran Eriksson took charge. A 2-0 loss away to Swansea is no disgrace, and a fast start might well be on the cards with WBA’s first centre – back Jonas Olsson being injured, maybe the way to go is to back Leicester to score first, as the 5/4 about that happening is far more appealing than the 3/10 on show for West Brom, especially with Odemwingie out. The Foxes have netted first in four of their last five games while the Baggies have conceded the opening goal in eight of the 11 games they've played in all competitions.
SWANSEA will be roared on by a travelling army of 5,000 supporters at the DW Stadium on Tuesday night as they look to put one over on former boss and player Roberto Martinez, and an upset isn’t entirely off the cards seeing as Wigan’s squad may not have an awful lot of strength in depth this year.
That army of travelling fans will do whole help of good to Swansea, and given that Wigan have been knocked out of this competition by lower division opposition in three out of the last four seasons, Swansea are well worth backing with the draw no bet option and if that’s the way we go, then back both teams to score as well.
BIRMINGHAM must be licking their lips at the prospect of a place in the quarter-finals of the Carling Cup. They have been pretty fortunate with the way this competition has panned out for them so far, having previously been handed home ties against League One sides Rochdale and MK Dons. They had to battle to beat Rochdale but were efficient in beating MK Dons 3-1 and must seriously be fancying their chances of getting through. Back them with a -1 goal deficit at 10/11.
Lastly on the Carling Cup front, Manchester United face Wolves. Last year it was Danny Welbeck's second-half strike which proved the difference in that encounter as United recovered from the dismissal of Fabio da Silva to register a 1-0 victory.
United's record in this competition is intimidating. They have lifted the trophy in three of the last five seasons and last suffered a knock-out defeat in September 2007, when Championship side Coventry stunned them at Old Trafford.
Sir Alex Ferguson is expected to rest several first-team regulars ahead of Saturday evening's vitally-important league match against Tottenham, and while Mick McCarthy will do the same, Utd’s side will be far superior and are worth backing with a -1 goal deficit at 10/11 with Paddy Power.
Recommendations
Leicester to score first against West Brom (20/21 Boylesports)
Swansea to beat Wigan Athletic draw no bet (7/4 Stan James)
Both teams to score in Wigan v Swansea (5/6 Blue Sq, Stan James, 888Sport, Bwin)
Birmingham giving a -1 goal start to Brentford (11/10 Sportingbet, Blue Sq, 888Sport, Bwin, Betfred)
Manchester United giving a -1 goal start to Wolves (5/6 Boylesports, Blue Sq, 888Sport)
Racing Today - 26th October 2010
Punchestown
2.45 – ATITMATOV should be really hard to beat here as a Grade 1 hurdle winner, with his yard having a 43% strike rate in the past 2 weeks. There was plenty to like about his second behind high-class stablemate Donnas Palm at Tipperary just over three weeks ago and he should strip fitter for it.
4.15 - MAGGIE CONNOLLY ran a cracking race on her introduction to this sphere at Navan behind a potentially smart performer in Araucaria (winner again since) and has a very competitive shot based on that form.
Taunton
3.10 - WOODLARK ISLAND showed that this mark wouldn't be beyond him when a good second at Exeter last week and he’s worth a punt to make all the running in this event.
Recommendations
Back Atitmatov to win the 2.45 at Punchestown (8/13 Paddy Power)
Back Maggie Connolly to win the 4.15 at Punchestown (15/8 Ladbrokes)
Back Woodlark Island to win the 3.10 at Taunton (9/4 in general)
2.45 – ATITMATOV should be really hard to beat here as a Grade 1 hurdle winner, with his yard having a 43% strike rate in the past 2 weeks. There was plenty to like about his second behind high-class stablemate Donnas Palm at Tipperary just over three weeks ago and he should strip fitter for it.
4.15 - MAGGIE CONNOLLY ran a cracking race on her introduction to this sphere at Navan behind a potentially smart performer in Araucaria (winner again since) and has a very competitive shot based on that form.
Taunton
3.10 - WOODLARK ISLAND showed that this mark wouldn't be beyond him when a good second at Exeter last week and he’s worth a punt to make all the running in this event.
Recommendations
Back Atitmatov to win the 2.45 at Punchestown (8/13 Paddy Power)
Back Maggie Connolly to win the 4.15 at Punchestown (15/8 Ladbrokes)
Back Woodlark Island to win the 3.10 at Taunton (9/4 in general)
Monday, 25 October 2010
Racing Today - 25th October 2010
There’s also some decent tracing on today, namely at Leopardstown. In the Killavullan Stakes (2.25) Dubai Prince is going to be near impossible to beat if you take his form reading literally, as he beat Seville further than Casamento (admittedly by ¼ of a length) did on debut.
Warning Flag has done nothing but improve in his three starts thus far and won't give up on the hat-trick without a fight, but RULING should make a lovely 3 year old next year and just oozed class on debut, so must be worth backing each/way at 8/1 with 3 places. It’s unlikely that he’ll beat Casamento but at least 4 of the horses here look like cannon fodder and with more to come from his first run, I believe he can be in the shake up.
There’s another pattern race of sorts with the Triogo Stakes and it looks like nothing more than a benefit for FAMOUS NAME, concedes weight to all of his rivals today but he still meets them on better terms than he would in a handicap and this is much easier than Grade 1 horses.
Over at Galway, the 4.35 is a race to put ion the Sky+ and savour with, Corkseagh Royale, Jessie’s’ Dream, Venalmar, and Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle winner BERTIE’S DREAM in attendance. Trainer Paul Gilligan has given his stable star plenty of gallops to keep him ticking and with match fitness not expected to be a problem, and jumping having been worked on (schooled at Punchestown recently), expect him to take all the beating today.
Recommendations
Back Ruling each/way in the Killavullan Stakes (2.25 Leopardstown) (10/1 Sportingbet)
Back Famous Name in the Trigo Stakes (4.55 Leopardstown) (10/11 Bet365, Sportingbet)
Back Bertie's Dream to win the 4.35 at Galway (11/4 Coral, Paddy Power)
Warning Flag has done nothing but improve in his three starts thus far and won't give up on the hat-trick without a fight, but RULING should make a lovely 3 year old next year and just oozed class on debut, so must be worth backing each/way at 8/1 with 3 places. It’s unlikely that he’ll beat Casamento but at least 4 of the horses here look like cannon fodder and with more to come from his first run, I believe he can be in the shake up.
There’s another pattern race of sorts with the Triogo Stakes and it looks like nothing more than a benefit for FAMOUS NAME, concedes weight to all of his rivals today but he still meets them on better terms than he would in a handicap and this is much easier than Grade 1 horses.
Over at Galway, the 4.35 is a race to put ion the Sky+ and savour with, Corkseagh Royale, Jessie’s’ Dream, Venalmar, and Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle winner BERTIE’S DREAM in attendance. Trainer Paul Gilligan has given his stable star plenty of gallops to keep him ticking and with match fitness not expected to be a problem, and jumping having been worked on (schooled at Punchestown recently), expect him to take all the beating today.
Recommendations
Back Ruling each/way in the Killavullan Stakes (2.25 Leopardstown) (10/1 Sportingbet)
Back Famous Name in the Trigo Stakes (4.55 Leopardstown) (10/11 Bet365, Sportingbet)
Back Bertie's Dream to win the 4.35 at Galway (11/4 Coral, Paddy Power)
Football Betting Blog - 25th October 2010
A quiet Monday sounds like a strange time to post a blog, but there is football on and I am on a good streak of late. I hope you all checked out the twitterfeed as I did advise backing Rangers to win (3 separate ways) and also backing Casamento and Seville in the RP Trophy, Hopefully I’ll be back in time for Saturday.
Sampdoria & Roma apart (and it now must be said they are nowhere near the force they were last season) Napoli haven’t faced a proper Italian superpower and they will face a very tough test when AC MILAN come to Naples tonight.
Napoli are unbeaten in their five matches in all competitions and have lost just once in the league all season. However, the Neapolitans were held to a 1-1 draw by Catania in Sicily last weekend and failed to regain momentum on Thursday evening when despite playing well the Azzurri had to settle for a goalless draw with Liverpool in the Europa League, a match they should have lost as Ryan Babel missed a very clear cut chance late on.
Under scrutiny, their top flight home record isn’t exceptionally great as they have won one, drawn one and lost one in their three matches at the Stadio San Paolo.
AC Milan’s experienced but ageing midfield severely failed against their youthful and balanced Madrid counterparts in the Champions League and their attackline too couldn’t conjure up much, but Los Blancos have been superb at the back and defeat was nothing to be ashamed about.
AC are on a high as far as winning in the league is concerned as their 3-1 win against Chievo last weekend was their third Serie A victory in a row, and even allowing for a modest away record (drawn one, lost one and won one in their three matches away from home ), they have an excellent chance here.
On another note, Napoli are draw specialists so back the draw and an AC win separately.
In the Championship, CARDIFF might be able to nick 3 points from Leeds at Elland Road tonight following on from a lacklustre 2-1 loss to Leicester last week. Leeds have been good going forward as usual this year and won’t fail to create or finish chances but the same can be said of Cardiff with Craig Bellamy, Michel Chopra and Joy Bothroyd in the line up and Leeds’ defence (have let in 11 in the last 4 games) may not be able to handle them. The fact that Leeds have lost half of their home games may not help either, a 6-4 loss to Preston being a prime example.
In a relegation 6 pointer in Spain, back REAL SCOIDEAD to get the better of Deportivo La Coruna with home advantage on their side. Both teams are in trouble (Real are 16th, Deportivo 19th) but while Deportivo struggle badly on the road, both of the their victories have come on home soil this term. The first came by way of an impressive opening day success over Villarreal, who were defeated 1-0, and they had to wait until the first weekend in October to score a similar result against Espanyol.
With four defeats in their last five fixtures, the Basques can’t take anything for granted going into this match, they should be aiming for maximum points.
Recommendations
AC Milan and Napoli to draw (11/5 Skybet, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Unibet)
AC Milan to beat Napoli (13/8 Bet365, Skybet, 6/4 Totesport, Betfred,VCBet, Blue Square)
Cardiff to beat Leeds (13/8 VCBet, 6/4 elsewhere)
Real Sociedad to beat Deportivo La Coruna (21/20 VCBet, Stan James)
Sampdoria & Roma apart (and it now must be said they are nowhere near the force they were last season) Napoli haven’t faced a proper Italian superpower and they will face a very tough test when AC MILAN come to Naples tonight.
Napoli are unbeaten in their five matches in all competitions and have lost just once in the league all season. However, the Neapolitans were held to a 1-1 draw by Catania in Sicily last weekend and failed to regain momentum on Thursday evening when despite playing well the Azzurri had to settle for a goalless draw with Liverpool in the Europa League, a match they should have lost as Ryan Babel missed a very clear cut chance late on.
Under scrutiny, their top flight home record isn’t exceptionally great as they have won one, drawn one and lost one in their three matches at the Stadio San Paolo.
AC Milan’s experienced but ageing midfield severely failed against their youthful and balanced Madrid counterparts in the Champions League and their attackline too couldn’t conjure up much, but Los Blancos have been superb at the back and defeat was nothing to be ashamed about.
AC are on a high as far as winning in the league is concerned as their 3-1 win against Chievo last weekend was their third Serie A victory in a row, and even allowing for a modest away record (drawn one, lost one and won one in their three matches away from home ), they have an excellent chance here.
On another note, Napoli are draw specialists so back the draw and an AC win separately.
In the Championship, CARDIFF might be able to nick 3 points from Leeds at Elland Road tonight following on from a lacklustre 2-1 loss to Leicester last week. Leeds have been good going forward as usual this year and won’t fail to create or finish chances but the same can be said of Cardiff with Craig Bellamy, Michel Chopra and Joy Bothroyd in the line up and Leeds’ defence (have let in 11 in the last 4 games) may not be able to handle them. The fact that Leeds have lost half of their home games may not help either, a 6-4 loss to Preston being a prime example.
In a relegation 6 pointer in Spain, back REAL SCOIDEAD to get the better of Deportivo La Coruna with home advantage on their side. Both teams are in trouble (Real are 16th, Deportivo 19th) but while Deportivo struggle badly on the road, both of the their victories have come on home soil this term. The first came by way of an impressive opening day success over Villarreal, who were defeated 1-0, and they had to wait until the first weekend in October to score a similar result against Espanyol.
With four defeats in their last five fixtures, the Basques can’t take anything for granted going into this match, they should be aiming for maximum points.
Recommendations
AC Milan and Napoli to draw (11/5 Skybet, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Unibet)
AC Milan to beat Napoli (13/8 Bet365, Skybet, 6/4 Totesport, Betfred,VCBet, Blue Square)
Cardiff to beat Leeds (13/8 VCBet, 6/4 elsewhere)
Real Sociedad to beat Deportivo La Coruna (21/20 VCBet, Stan James)
Sunday, 24 October 2010
Champions League 2010/11
It's a good time to review the earlier bets made for the Champions League, with Matchday 3 up and complete.
Inter to win Group A (4/5 with Paddy Power)
Recovered from a 2-2 draw with Twente away to win their next 2, scoring four in Both and playing very well, with the youngsters Countiniho and Biabiany giving them width, space and chances going forward. Incredibly for a Benitez side, they’ve looked a lot better going forward than backwards, were wingers like Bale can get at them easily, as was shown by a shocking second half performance. That said, they’ve looked good and should win the group with Twente still yet to come to the San Siro.
Lyon to win Group B (11/10 general)
Have made a shocking start at home but have won three out of three to take them 3 points clear of Benfica, so are in pole position to take this. Away trips to Schalke and Benfica won’t be easy, but they should take care of Benfica at the Stade Gerland and other teams may cancel each other out, so they look to have a good chance.
Bayern to win Group E (4/9 general)
Another side who have made a shocking start at home but have won three out of three, and even better they have a 6 point lead over Roma, Basel and Cluj. It’ll be much harder to go to Cluj in a fortnight, but they should have enough to beat Basel at home and Roma have been shocking so they’ll fancy themselves to take points there.
Real Madrid to win Group G (1/2 general)
The shortest priced of the lot but another good wager so far, with easy home wins over Ajax and Milan sandwiching a hard fought win at Auxerre. Things can only get tougher as they have to go to Holland and to the San Siro in a fortnight but Mouriniho’s men keep on improving and should have enough in them to win.
So to conclude, all four bets look very good at the moment, although Lyon and Madrid will have tough tests away.
From what I’ve seen so far, the British teams should make a big mark in the competition again, with Man U having gotten 7 points in difficult circumstances, Tottenham having shown their worth, while Arsenal and CHELSEA have gotten perfect records. Chelsea are 11/8 to go furthest in the completion out of the English teams with William Hill and there’s a number of reasons why I think that’s a great bet. Firstly I think they will win the competition, or at least go close to doing so, and surely that would make them an automatic pick for this.
Next, it’s clear that they have a better defence than Arsenal, more world class players than Tottenham, and a deeper squad to plunge than Manchester United. They have been unlucky in recent seasons (infamous referring performance against Barcelona and possibly Inter, losing to Manchester United on penalties, and being unlucky to lose to Liverpool in a semi – final), and now have the right mix of world class experienced players (Essien, Drogba, Cech, Terry, Malouda) and young but composed talent (McEheran, Kakuta, Van Annholt, Sturridge) along with very useful players (Ramieres, Alex, Ivanovic, Bosingwa) to progress and take on European giants.
Speaking of European giants, surely it’s been too long for REAL MADRID to get a win in this competition. Their last win was in that famous final against Bayer Leverkusen (with that volley by Zidane), but a mixture of poor defending and blunt finishing have been enough to keep them out of the Quarter finals or better for in each of the last six seasons.
What reason to think things will change now?? The answer to that has to be the ‘Special One’, jose Mouriniho. Look at Mourinho’s record.
He won the Uefa Cup and Champions League in successive years with Porto, delivered every English domestic cup at Chelsea and then landed an unprecedented treble with Inter last season. That’s an astonishing record and this is surely the best squad he’s inherited.
There is hardly a weakness in the side now Ricardo Carvalho has been signed from Chelsea. Carvalho was not the most glamorous arrival of the summer, but he was the solid and his tactical awareness will be crucial for a defence that always had the raw materials in Sergio Ramos, Pepe, RaulAlbiol and Marcelo, all of whom have stepped up majorly at set pieces and positioning since last season, a good sign as they have been the most solidly defensive team in Europe this year.
With a defence that solid, and players such as Mesut Ozil , Angel Di Maria, and most notably Xabi Alonso to create pace, with Gonzalo Higuain and notably Cristiano Rolando to score the goals, Madrid must fancy their chances.
They have already impressed against a big team in AC Milan and nobody will be wanting to take them on this year.
As for the others, Barcelona will get to the semi's at least but can be beaten, and that may be their greatest weakness if a team can set themselves up to limit their scoring to 2 or less, as Inter did last season. Inter did it last year, and Chelsea only lost on away goals last time they met, so it's likely to be a very close semi final should they meet one of those teams.
Inter have to overturn the statistic that says that no team since city rivals AC have retained this competition, although they have been stupidly priced due to the negative feel that has followed Rafa Benitez from Liverpool.
Interestingly for a team famed for defensive solidity, they've looked much better going forward, having scored 10 goals in just 3 games in Europe. It's pleasing to see the likes of Snedijer, Babaiany and Countinho giving them width but lapses like the second half collapse against Spurs and 2-2 draws against Twente were problematic and a defence lacking in pace will be what gives them away in Europe this season, not the manger or attacking problems.
Arsenal have their best squad for a while and will be able to score and beat any team at the Emirates, but when they have to go away to the San Siro, Bernabeau, Nou Camp and other big stadiums, their defence may come unstuck.
Man Utd will improve as the season goes on but their early season form suggests that the same problems which stopped them from getting through last season (defence and failing to keep the lead) might be their Achilles heel again., That said, if Dimitar Berbatov can continue his sparkling form from early season, Nani can gain some consistency out wide and Javier Hernandez can continue poaching, with a possibly fit and ready Wayne Rooney ready to do the business next year, they will be a threat to all.
AC Milan have been mentioned by many as good outsiders but a poor defence will let them down, with an ageing midfield unlikely to offer the protection needed unless Falmini or Boateng are picked ahead of Seedorf.
Lyon are possible outsiders, as the home form will make them difficult to beat but they are the weakest of the top seeds and will struggle to get the results they need away from home if their intentions are geared towards getting their title back at home.
A good outsider bet may well be Bayern Munich, who have managed 9 points out of 9 despite being in shocking form at home, and can call on the likes of Robben and Ribery to return after the winter, not to mention an already solid attacking lineup. Watch out for them as the season goes on.
And finally, it’s always worth a dabble in the top goalscorer market. Samuel Eto’ leads by 2 on 6 after his blinding start to life with Inter this season , and must be fancied to get more but he will have tougher tests to come against a fully fit Spurs back 4 and the games may well get tighter. The same can’t be said for Barcelona’s LIONEL MESSI, who is bound to be scoring for fun in the next 3 group games and is surely going to be involved for a long time in this season’s tournament.
Recommendations
Chelsea to progress furthest of the British Teams (11/8 William Hill)
Chelsea to win the Champions League (9/2 Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Stan James, Extra Bet)
Real Madrid to win the Champions League (9/2 Ladbrokes)
Lionel Messi to be top scorer (3/1 Totesport, Coral)
Inter to win Group A (4/5 with Paddy Power)
Recovered from a 2-2 draw with Twente away to win their next 2, scoring four in Both and playing very well, with the youngsters Countiniho and Biabiany giving them width, space and chances going forward. Incredibly for a Benitez side, they’ve looked a lot better going forward than backwards, were wingers like Bale can get at them easily, as was shown by a shocking second half performance. That said, they’ve looked good and should win the group with Twente still yet to come to the San Siro.
Lyon to win Group B (11/10 general)
Have made a shocking start at home but have won three out of three to take them 3 points clear of Benfica, so are in pole position to take this. Away trips to Schalke and Benfica won’t be easy, but they should take care of Benfica at the Stade Gerland and other teams may cancel each other out, so they look to have a good chance.
Bayern to win Group E (4/9 general)
Another side who have made a shocking start at home but have won three out of three, and even better they have a 6 point lead over Roma, Basel and Cluj. It’ll be much harder to go to Cluj in a fortnight, but they should have enough to beat Basel at home and Roma have been shocking so they’ll fancy themselves to take points there.
Real Madrid to win Group G (1/2 general)
The shortest priced of the lot but another good wager so far, with easy home wins over Ajax and Milan sandwiching a hard fought win at Auxerre. Things can only get tougher as they have to go to Holland and to the San Siro in a fortnight but Mouriniho’s men keep on improving and should have enough in them to win.
So to conclude, all four bets look very good at the moment, although Lyon and Madrid will have tough tests away.
From what I’ve seen so far, the British teams should make a big mark in the competition again, with Man U having gotten 7 points in difficult circumstances, Tottenham having shown their worth, while Arsenal and CHELSEA have gotten perfect records. Chelsea are 11/8 to go furthest in the completion out of the English teams with William Hill and there’s a number of reasons why I think that’s a great bet. Firstly I think they will win the competition, or at least go close to doing so, and surely that would make them an automatic pick for this.
Next, it’s clear that they have a better defence than Arsenal, more world class players than Tottenham, and a deeper squad to plunge than Manchester United. They have been unlucky in recent seasons (infamous referring performance against Barcelona and possibly Inter, losing to Manchester United on penalties, and being unlucky to lose to Liverpool in a semi – final), and now have the right mix of world class experienced players (Essien, Drogba, Cech, Terry, Malouda) and young but composed talent (McEheran, Kakuta, Van Annholt, Sturridge) along with very useful players (Ramieres, Alex, Ivanovic, Bosingwa) to progress and take on European giants.
Speaking of European giants, surely it’s been too long for REAL MADRID to get a win in this competition. Their last win was in that famous final against Bayer Leverkusen (with that volley by Zidane), but a mixture of poor defending and blunt finishing have been enough to keep them out of the Quarter finals or better for in each of the last six seasons.
What reason to think things will change now?? The answer to that has to be the ‘Special One’, jose Mouriniho. Look at Mourinho’s record.
He won the Uefa Cup and Champions League in successive years with Porto, delivered every English domestic cup at Chelsea and then landed an unprecedented treble with Inter last season. That’s an astonishing record and this is surely the best squad he’s inherited.
There is hardly a weakness in the side now Ricardo Carvalho has been signed from Chelsea. Carvalho was not the most glamorous arrival of the summer, but he was the solid and his tactical awareness will be crucial for a defence that always had the raw materials in Sergio Ramos, Pepe, RaulAlbiol and Marcelo, all of whom have stepped up majorly at set pieces and positioning since last season, a good sign as they have been the most solidly defensive team in Europe this year.
With a defence that solid, and players such as Mesut Ozil , Angel Di Maria, and most notably Xabi Alonso to create pace, with Gonzalo Higuain and notably Cristiano Rolando to score the goals, Madrid must fancy their chances.
They have already impressed against a big team in AC Milan and nobody will be wanting to take them on this year.
As for the others, Barcelona will get to the semi's at least but can be beaten, and that may be their greatest weakness if a team can set themselves up to limit their scoring to 2 or less, as Inter did last season. Inter did it last year, and Chelsea only lost on away goals last time they met, so it's likely to be a very close semi final should they meet one of those teams.
Inter have to overturn the statistic that says that no team since city rivals AC have retained this competition, although they have been stupidly priced due to the negative feel that has followed Rafa Benitez from Liverpool.
Interestingly for a team famed for defensive solidity, they've looked much better going forward, having scored 10 goals in just 3 games in Europe. It's pleasing to see the likes of Snedijer, Babaiany and Countinho giving them width but lapses like the second half collapse against Spurs and 2-2 draws against Twente were problematic and a defence lacking in pace will be what gives them away in Europe this season, not the manger or attacking problems.
Arsenal have their best squad for a while and will be able to score and beat any team at the Emirates, but when they have to go away to the San Siro, Bernabeau, Nou Camp and other big stadiums, their defence may come unstuck.
Man Utd will improve as the season goes on but their early season form suggests that the same problems which stopped them from getting through last season (defence and failing to keep the lead) might be their Achilles heel again., That said, if Dimitar Berbatov can continue his sparkling form from early season, Nani can gain some consistency out wide and Javier Hernandez can continue poaching, with a possibly fit and ready Wayne Rooney ready to do the business next year, they will be a threat to all.
AC Milan have been mentioned by many as good outsiders but a poor defence will let them down, with an ageing midfield unlikely to offer the protection needed unless Falmini or Boateng are picked ahead of Seedorf.
Lyon are possible outsiders, as the home form will make them difficult to beat but they are the weakest of the top seeds and will struggle to get the results they need away from home if their intentions are geared towards getting their title back at home.
A good outsider bet may well be Bayern Munich, who have managed 9 points out of 9 despite being in shocking form at home, and can call on the likes of Robben and Ribery to return after the winter, not to mention an already solid attacking lineup. Watch out for them as the season goes on.
And finally, it’s always worth a dabble in the top goalscorer market. Samuel Eto’ leads by 2 on 6 after his blinding start to life with Inter this season , and must be fancied to get more but he will have tougher tests to come against a fully fit Spurs back 4 and the games may well get tighter. The same can’t be said for Barcelona’s LIONEL MESSI, who is bound to be scoring for fun in the next 3 group games and is surely going to be involved for a long time in this season’s tournament.
Recommendations
Chelsea to progress furthest of the British Teams (11/8 William Hill)
Chelsea to win the Champions League (9/2 Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Stan James, Extra Bet)
Real Madrid to win the Champions League (9/2 Ladbrokes)
Lionel Messi to be top scorer (3/1 Totesport, Coral)
Thursday, 21 October 2010
Half Time Update - Napoli v Liverpool
It's been a relatively uneventful first half at Napoli but they are rather slow starters and have a notorious record of drawing games. The odds on a draw are around 11/8, which looks worth backing.
That said, Napoli are worth backing to win the game as odds of 6/4 from Stan James, Totesport, Boylesports and William Hill look like an overreaction for a slow start and they will step it up in the second period.
Recommendations
Back the draw at 11/8 withc VCBet
Back Napoli to win at 6/4 from Stan James, Totesport, Boylesports and William Hill
That said, Napoli are worth backing to win the game as odds of 6/4 from Stan James, Totesport, Boylesports and William Hill look like an overreaction for a slow start and they will step it up in the second period.
Recommendations
Back the draw at 11/8 withc VCBet
Back Napoli to win at 6/4 from Stan James, Totesport, Boylesports and William Hill
Wednesday, 20 October 2010
Matchday 3 Part 2 - Champions League 2010/11
A good night last night with wins for Chelsea, Zilina on the 2 goal start, Madrid and Ajax, with Roma and Bayern, who have both suffered a slow start to the season, letting the side down (not for the first time). Another big night awaits.
LYON have been shocking at home (14th in the Domestic table) and are the weakest of the top seeds by far despite being semi-finalists last season, but have won 2 out of 2 in the Champions League and aren’t stupidly priced to beat Benfica at the Stade Gerland, where they have a very strong record (were only beaten by Bayern last season in the competition). 11/10 is a fair price about them grinding out a win, even allowing for the fact that Benfica are at times criminally underrated.
I strongly fancy Schalke to beat Haopel Tel Aviv, even after a shocking start to the season (are third from bottom in the German Bundesliga, having picked up just five points from eight matches). Defeat to Olympique Lyonnais in France on Matchday One was expected given their abysmal run of form in the league and was to a reasonable extent acceptable too as they were playing away from home; And they beat Benfica 2-0 at home on Matchday 2. Hapoel aren’t on the same level as Benfica to me and have looked out of their depth during defeats away to Benfica (2-0) and at home to Lyon (3-1). 4/9 and 1-2 to win are just too short, while I’ve already been stung on the handicap this week and don’t fancy the -1 goal start at 6/5, so back KLAAS JAN-HUNTELLAR to net anytime at a range of prices seeing as he’s scored 5 in 6 games for the club, including against Befnica.
Barcelona have put their domestic wobble firmly behind them and all things going to plan, they should get a comfortable home victory over surprise Group D leaders FC Copenhagen. The Danes are not to be underestimated, as they have already beaten Rubin at home, followed up by a highly impressive 2-0 success away to Panathinaikos, setting the Danes up nicely for qualification. They also come here off a trashing of Odense 5-0, partly on the back of a hat-trick from Cesar Santin.
That said, Barcelona were imperious after a first half wobble against Valencia on Saturday and a performance of similar magnitude should see them win with something to spare. Copenhagen are too good a side to be giving a 2 goal start, so maybe the route to go down is backing over 2.5 and over 3.5 goals at 4/9 and 4/6 respectively.
In the other group D game, it’s a crucial night for both Panathinakos and RUBIN KAZAN, both of whom need to gain ground fast on Copenhagen, who won’t be expecting a big haul from 2 ties with Barcelona.
Rubin arguably threw away a point when they lost to Copenhagen at home but showed the form they are capable of when holding Barcelona to a 1-1 draw on Matchday 2. The Russian champions will be expecting to progress, having been given a kinder draw then when placed against Kiev, Inter and Barcelona last season and it’s now or never for the Russians, who should have enough about them to snatch a win with their defensive stoutness on the break. With the 2 teams having scored only twice between them so far, back under 2.5 goals at 4/7 and also cover Rubin with the draw no bet option.
Things are getting tight in Group C, with Man United apparently suffering a crisis at home (with Wayne Rooney wanting to leave, and a defence that’s leaking badly) and Bursapor looking like the worst team to play in the CL for Turkey.
Both VALENCIA and Rangers will be delighted with their respective start to the campaign, Rangers having yet to concede a goal in this season’s Champions League and leading the SPL with a perfect 8-8 record, and Valencia sitting pretty in third at home, having beaten Bursaspor 4-0 on the road.
Los Che were unlucky to lose to Man Utd, wasting a criminal amount of chances before being undone by a breakway Hernández goal. The Spanish side make their way to Scotland after a 2-1 defeat away to Barcelona at the Nou Camp, which was Valencia’s first defeat in the Primera Division since May. They showed their ability by actually leading at half time against the Spanish Champions, an impressive feat for any side.
Valencia are now sitting in third place in the league after some fantastic performances with what is a different team compared to last season, with the loss of star players such as David Silva and David Villa, while Rangers are coming off of a second half comeback against Motherwell in the Scottish Premier League, where the champions came from a goal down to score four without reply to remain at the top of the table.
This will be a tough test for Valencia but they are a classy team and must have enough in them to come away with all 3 points here if they can perform like they did at the Nou Camp, and if they can start like they did on Saturday and against Buraspor then maybe they are worth backing in the Half Time / Full Time market, and to be winning at Half Time.
This is the crunch game for Twente and Werder, with slight preference for the home team as they managed to come from behind to draw with Inter, while Werder came from behind to get the same result against Tottenham in their only home games so far.
Twente only just started to replicate their title winning form from last year, and should be boosted by a 1-0 win at Feynooord but this game is too tight to predict to I would go with over 2.5 goals at 4/6 in general, as Bremen love to attack and Twente rarely fail to score at home.
Manchester United v Bursaspor is likely to be a home win but there’s no really value in the match as it’s been over shadowed by Rooney’s turmoil.
INTER MILAN v Tottenham is a fascinating game, with the Italian and European Champions facing off against the Premier League’s fastest rising club. Inter have had a fairly successful start to this season, lying in third place after 7 games. That sound comfortable for the club, but they have a long injury list to deal and that won’t help them against a team with as much speed and pace at Tottenham Hotspur, an area where Zanetti and Lucio will suffer tonight, and possibley Macicon against Bale.
Spurs also come here off a hard fought 2-1 win with Fulham, no mean feat considering that they were unbeaten at home beforehand. However, there are positives for Inter tonight.
Firstly, despite missing Diego Milito due to a groin problem, Goran Pandev, Esteban Cambiasso and Ivan Cordoba could play, a he boost for a squad growing thin. And Wesley Sneijder and on – fire Striker Samuel Eto’o will play, while Inter’s experienced. For back four (Maicon, Lucio, Samuel, Chivu) looks strong and solid, if not a little slow. Forward Francis Countiniho will be a crucial part of the attack.
Tottenham will be without suspended forward Rafael van der Vaart, who was becoming a crucial point of their team, and Ledley King is also out with a groin injury, so Sebastien Bassong could partner William Gallas at the back. That back four might not be well adjusted to each other, so this game could be very open.
It’s a toughie to deicide, but the call has to be for Inter with home advantage and experience.
Recommendations
Lyon to beat Benfica (11/10 BlueSq, Boylesports, Paddy Power)
Klaas Jan – Huntellar to score at anytime against Benfica (evens Coral, Stan James, Boylesports)
Over 2.5 goals in Barcelona v Copenhagen (4/9 general)
Over 3.5 goals in Barcelona v Copenhagen (4/9 general)
Rubin Kazan to beat Panathinkos (2/1 VC Bet, 13/8 elsewhere)
Rubin Kazan to beat Pananthinkos with draw no bet (10/11 Skybet and Betfred)
Under 2.5 goals in Panathinkos v Rubin (4/7 Betfred, Skybet, Totesport, Eurosport)
Valencia to beat Rangers (10/11 Boylesports)
Valencia to be leading at Half Time (15/8 Betfred)
Valencia Half Time / Full Time (11/4 Blue Sq, Stan James, 888 Sport)
Over 2.5 goals in Twente v Werder Bremen (4/6 general)
Inter to beat Tottenham (4/6 general)
LYON have been shocking at home (14th in the Domestic table) and are the weakest of the top seeds by far despite being semi-finalists last season, but have won 2 out of 2 in the Champions League and aren’t stupidly priced to beat Benfica at the Stade Gerland, where they have a very strong record (were only beaten by Bayern last season in the competition). 11/10 is a fair price about them grinding out a win, even allowing for the fact that Benfica are at times criminally underrated.
I strongly fancy Schalke to beat Haopel Tel Aviv, even after a shocking start to the season (are third from bottom in the German Bundesliga, having picked up just five points from eight matches). Defeat to Olympique Lyonnais in France on Matchday One was expected given their abysmal run of form in the league and was to a reasonable extent acceptable too as they were playing away from home; And they beat Benfica 2-0 at home on Matchday 2. Hapoel aren’t on the same level as Benfica to me and have looked out of their depth during defeats away to Benfica (2-0) and at home to Lyon (3-1). 4/9 and 1-2 to win are just too short, while I’ve already been stung on the handicap this week and don’t fancy the -1 goal start at 6/5, so back KLAAS JAN-HUNTELLAR to net anytime at a range of prices seeing as he’s scored 5 in 6 games for the club, including against Befnica.
Barcelona have put their domestic wobble firmly behind them and all things going to plan, they should get a comfortable home victory over surprise Group D leaders FC Copenhagen. The Danes are not to be underestimated, as they have already beaten Rubin at home, followed up by a highly impressive 2-0 success away to Panathinaikos, setting the Danes up nicely for qualification. They also come here off a trashing of Odense 5-0, partly on the back of a hat-trick from Cesar Santin.
That said, Barcelona were imperious after a first half wobble against Valencia on Saturday and a performance of similar magnitude should see them win with something to spare. Copenhagen are too good a side to be giving a 2 goal start, so maybe the route to go down is backing over 2.5 and over 3.5 goals at 4/9 and 4/6 respectively.
In the other group D game, it’s a crucial night for both Panathinakos and RUBIN KAZAN, both of whom need to gain ground fast on Copenhagen, who won’t be expecting a big haul from 2 ties with Barcelona.
Rubin arguably threw away a point when they lost to Copenhagen at home but showed the form they are capable of when holding Barcelona to a 1-1 draw on Matchday 2. The Russian champions will be expecting to progress, having been given a kinder draw then when placed against Kiev, Inter and Barcelona last season and it’s now or never for the Russians, who should have enough about them to snatch a win with their defensive stoutness on the break. With the 2 teams having scored only twice between them so far, back under 2.5 goals at 4/7 and also cover Rubin with the draw no bet option.
Things are getting tight in Group C, with Man United apparently suffering a crisis at home (with Wayne Rooney wanting to leave, and a defence that’s leaking badly) and Bursapor looking like the worst team to play in the CL for Turkey.
Both VALENCIA and Rangers will be delighted with their respective start to the campaign, Rangers having yet to concede a goal in this season’s Champions League and leading the SPL with a perfect 8-8 record, and Valencia sitting pretty in third at home, having beaten Bursaspor 4-0 on the road.
Los Che were unlucky to lose to Man Utd, wasting a criminal amount of chances before being undone by a breakway Hernández goal. The Spanish side make their way to Scotland after a 2-1 defeat away to Barcelona at the Nou Camp, which was Valencia’s first defeat in the Primera Division since May. They showed their ability by actually leading at half time against the Spanish Champions, an impressive feat for any side.
Valencia are now sitting in third place in the league after some fantastic performances with what is a different team compared to last season, with the loss of star players such as David Silva and David Villa, while Rangers are coming off of a second half comeback against Motherwell in the Scottish Premier League, where the champions came from a goal down to score four without reply to remain at the top of the table.
This will be a tough test for Valencia but they are a classy team and must have enough in them to come away with all 3 points here if they can perform like they did at the Nou Camp, and if they can start like they did on Saturday and against Buraspor then maybe they are worth backing in the Half Time / Full Time market, and to be winning at Half Time.
This is the crunch game for Twente and Werder, with slight preference for the home team as they managed to come from behind to draw with Inter, while Werder came from behind to get the same result against Tottenham in their only home games so far.
Twente only just started to replicate their title winning form from last year, and should be boosted by a 1-0 win at Feynooord but this game is too tight to predict to I would go with over 2.5 goals at 4/6 in general, as Bremen love to attack and Twente rarely fail to score at home.
Manchester United v Bursaspor is likely to be a home win but there’s no really value in the match as it’s been over shadowed by Rooney’s turmoil.
INTER MILAN v Tottenham is a fascinating game, with the Italian and European Champions facing off against the Premier League’s fastest rising club. Inter have had a fairly successful start to this season, lying in third place after 7 games. That sound comfortable for the club, but they have a long injury list to deal and that won’t help them against a team with as much speed and pace at Tottenham Hotspur, an area where Zanetti and Lucio will suffer tonight, and possibley Macicon against Bale.
Spurs also come here off a hard fought 2-1 win with Fulham, no mean feat considering that they were unbeaten at home beforehand. However, there are positives for Inter tonight.
Firstly, despite missing Diego Milito due to a groin problem, Goran Pandev, Esteban Cambiasso and Ivan Cordoba could play, a he boost for a squad growing thin. And Wesley Sneijder and on – fire Striker Samuel Eto’o will play, while Inter’s experienced. For back four (Maicon, Lucio, Samuel, Chivu) looks strong and solid, if not a little slow. Forward Francis Countiniho will be a crucial part of the attack.
Tottenham will be without suspended forward Rafael van der Vaart, who was becoming a crucial point of their team, and Ledley King is also out with a groin injury, so Sebastien Bassong could partner William Gallas at the back. That back four might not be well adjusted to each other, so this game could be very open.
It’s a toughie to deicide, but the call has to be for Inter with home advantage and experience.
Recommendations
Lyon to beat Benfica (11/10 BlueSq, Boylesports, Paddy Power)
Klaas Jan – Huntellar to score at anytime against Benfica (evens Coral, Stan James, Boylesports)
Over 2.5 goals in Barcelona v Copenhagen (4/9 general)
Over 3.5 goals in Barcelona v Copenhagen (4/9 general)
Rubin Kazan to beat Panathinkos (2/1 VC Bet, 13/8 elsewhere)
Rubin Kazan to beat Pananthinkos with draw no bet (10/11 Skybet and Betfred)
Under 2.5 goals in Panathinkos v Rubin (4/7 Betfred, Skybet, Totesport, Eurosport)
Valencia to beat Rangers (10/11 Boylesports)
Valencia to be leading at Half Time (15/8 Betfred)
Valencia Half Time / Full Time (11/4 Blue Sq, Stan James, 888 Sport)
Over 2.5 goals in Twente v Werder Bremen (4/6 general)
Inter to beat Tottenham (4/6 general)
Tuesday, 19 October 2010
Football Betting Blog - Champions League Matchday 3 Part 1
A quick read of this blog is required, with not much time (PC Problems). The early game is Spartak Moscow v Chelsea, but with Spartak having won their first 2 games, and Chelsea missing a few key players due to injuries, it’s not really a standout betting contest. I fancy Chelsea to win the whole competition, and on that basis they must take the beating at evens, but that would be all. The best game of the night also gets a preview.
In the ‘Group of Death’, AJAX will look to keep their dream of reaching the Champions League knock-out stages alive when they meet an Auxerre side in something of a state of disarray.
The Dutch runners-up need to keep in close contact with Real Madrid and Milan at the summit of the table, and they took a step towards the last 16 three weeks ago when they earned a home draw with the Rossoneri. That point was enough to keep them in contact with the Italians, and with Auxerre the designated “whipping boys” of this group, they are surely a must win 3 points for Martin Jol’s side, who will want to gain ground on Milan. Auxerre should be beaten, and it will take a dramatic turnaround in AJA’s fortunes if they are to earn a positive result against Ajax, particularly as they are in the midst of something of an injury crisis at present. Take the home side at 4/7.
Speaking of Milan, they play in the match of the competition so far (potentially) against REAL MADRID, following on from an awesome 3-2 win for them at the Bernabeu last year. Things have changed though, and while Madrid are arguably even stronger, so are Milan for having Robinhio, Pato, and Champions League scoring machine Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
Critics in Spain say that Madrid have not been spectacular but it takes time for a coach to gel in (not to mentions the signings of Di Maria, Ozil and new star Sergio Canales) but they have been pretty much consistent and under coach Jose Mourinho have also strengthened at the back, which will be crucial to their chances of winning in Europe this season.
I don’t get the “Real Madrid are boring” view. In the last 2 weeks, they have scored 10 goals in La Liga, defeating Deportivo La Coruna 6-1 at the Bernabeu and then winning 4-1 away at Malaga at the weekend.
Many will point to the fact that this provides Mourinho with his sternest challenge so far in the Spanish capital, but Madrid’s midfield, led by Xabi Alonso and backed up by Sami Khedira, may be able to outpoint their ageing counterparts, while there is no comparison in defence, where Milan have been sloppy this season, so take the home side at 4/7 to win. Also, it’s worth a punt on over 2.5 goals in the game given that both teams have attacking strength in depth.
BAYERN MUNICH may have been struggling in the German Bundesliga but last season’s Champions League finalists have looked superb in Europe, and after two wins in their opening two matches in Group E are on the verge of qualifying for the knockout stage.
Cluj will be no pushovers but my suspicion is that it’s a lot harder for them away from home and the Allianz Arena is no easy place to go (Man Utd and Lyon where just 2 of the teams to be beaten there last season).
Cluj suffered a defeat in Rome on Matchday Two but it was not before they had their moments, creating chances, breaking clear on more than one occasion on the counter attack, forcing good saves and hitting the post. That said, Bayern do at least come into this game of a 3 -0 win in Germany (Striker Mario Gomez notably got a hat - trick) and might worth be backing at -1 in the handicap (Cluj get a 1 goal head start).
Some would think that ROMA are there for the taking at the Stadio Olimpico, but I feel differently. Roma’s season has been topsy-turvy so far as they have struggled in Serie A and have not looked very convincing in Europe either but a 2-1 win against Genoa propelled the former Italian champions out of the relegation zone last weekend, and things should now be easier.
Roma were abysmal against Munich (but made themselves difficult to beat) and will be hard for Basel to beat at the Stadio Olimpico, even with 3 forwards missing, so take them at 8/13 with the Tote.
Arsenal v Shaktar should be a competitive match with both teams coming off the back of wins, and even with preference of my beloved Gunners I wouldn’t want to play them at short prices. Baraga and Partizan have been as bad as each other so I wouldn’t want to back either or the draw, while I think that Marsellie might find that Zilina are no pushovers even at the Velodrome, so they are not to be backed at 3/1 or on the handicap, with marginal preference for a small punt on Zilina with a 2 goal start.
Recommendations
Ajax to beat Auxerre (4/6 Betfred, Totesport, Coral)
Real Madrid to beat AC Milan (4/6 William Hill, Totesport, 7/10 Boylesports)
More than 2.5 goals in Real Madrid v AC Milan (4/6 and 8/11 general)
Bayern Munich to beat Cluj giving a 1 goal start (4/6 Skybet)
Roma to beat Basel (8/13 Totesport)
Zilina to beat Marseille with a 2 goal start (20/21 Bet365)
In the ‘Group of Death’, AJAX will look to keep their dream of reaching the Champions League knock-out stages alive when they meet an Auxerre side in something of a state of disarray.
The Dutch runners-up need to keep in close contact with Real Madrid and Milan at the summit of the table, and they took a step towards the last 16 three weeks ago when they earned a home draw with the Rossoneri. That point was enough to keep them in contact with the Italians, and with Auxerre the designated “whipping boys” of this group, they are surely a must win 3 points for Martin Jol’s side, who will want to gain ground on Milan. Auxerre should be beaten, and it will take a dramatic turnaround in AJA’s fortunes if they are to earn a positive result against Ajax, particularly as they are in the midst of something of an injury crisis at present. Take the home side at 4/7.
Speaking of Milan, they play in the match of the competition so far (potentially) against REAL MADRID, following on from an awesome 3-2 win for them at the Bernabeu last year. Things have changed though, and while Madrid are arguably even stronger, so are Milan for having Robinhio, Pato, and Champions League scoring machine Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
Critics in Spain say that Madrid have not been spectacular but it takes time for a coach to gel in (not to mentions the signings of Di Maria, Ozil and new star Sergio Canales) but they have been pretty much consistent and under coach Jose Mourinho have also strengthened at the back, which will be crucial to their chances of winning in Europe this season.
I don’t get the “Real Madrid are boring” view. In the last 2 weeks, they have scored 10 goals in La Liga, defeating Deportivo La Coruna 6-1 at the Bernabeu and then winning 4-1 away at Malaga at the weekend.
Many will point to the fact that this provides Mourinho with his sternest challenge so far in the Spanish capital, but Madrid’s midfield, led by Xabi Alonso and backed up by Sami Khedira, may be able to outpoint their ageing counterparts, while there is no comparison in defence, where Milan have been sloppy this season, so take the home side at 4/7 to win. Also, it’s worth a punt on over 2.5 goals in the game given that both teams have attacking strength in depth.
BAYERN MUNICH may have been struggling in the German Bundesliga but last season’s Champions League finalists have looked superb in Europe, and after two wins in their opening two matches in Group E are on the verge of qualifying for the knockout stage.
Cluj will be no pushovers but my suspicion is that it’s a lot harder for them away from home and the Allianz Arena is no easy place to go (Man Utd and Lyon where just 2 of the teams to be beaten there last season).
Cluj suffered a defeat in Rome on Matchday Two but it was not before they had their moments, creating chances, breaking clear on more than one occasion on the counter attack, forcing good saves and hitting the post. That said, Bayern do at least come into this game of a 3 -0 win in Germany (Striker Mario Gomez notably got a hat - trick) and might worth be backing at -1 in the handicap (Cluj get a 1 goal head start).
Some would think that ROMA are there for the taking at the Stadio Olimpico, but I feel differently. Roma’s season has been topsy-turvy so far as they have struggled in Serie A and have not looked very convincing in Europe either but a 2-1 win against Genoa propelled the former Italian champions out of the relegation zone last weekend, and things should now be easier.
Roma were abysmal against Munich (but made themselves difficult to beat) and will be hard for Basel to beat at the Stadio Olimpico, even with 3 forwards missing, so take them at 8/13 with the Tote.
Arsenal v Shaktar should be a competitive match with both teams coming off the back of wins, and even with preference of my beloved Gunners I wouldn’t want to play them at short prices. Baraga and Partizan have been as bad as each other so I wouldn’t want to back either or the draw, while I think that Marsellie might find that Zilina are no pushovers even at the Velodrome, so they are not to be backed at 3/1 or on the handicap, with marginal preference for a small punt on Zilina with a 2 goal start.
Recommendations
Ajax to beat Auxerre (4/6 Betfred, Totesport, Coral)
Real Madrid to beat AC Milan (4/6 William Hill, Totesport, 7/10 Boylesports)
More than 2.5 goals in Real Madrid v AC Milan (4/6 and 8/11 general)
Bayern Munich to beat Cluj giving a 1 goal start (4/6 Skybet)
Roma to beat Basel (8/13 Totesport)
Zilina to beat Marseille with a 2 goal start (20/21 Bet365)
Saturday, 16 October 2010
Supporting Cards - Champions Day
Unable to post full reasons, but this is what I think of Newmarket and Cheltenham today
Red Cadeux each way in the Cesarewitch at 14/1 (Excellent runs in defeat on last 3 races; Murtagh on board and only negative really is draw)
Sentry Duty each/way in the Cesarewitch at 10/1 (Has been kept fresh for this since Goodwood, Oliver Peslier booked and yard has won this in 2003 and 2008)
Universal Truth each/way in the Cesarewitch at 10/1 (Hurdlers have won 9 of the last 2 runnings of this, holds high class form in NH flat races and goes for shrewd yard; Draw should suit)
Cape Dollar each/way in the Rockfel at 6/1 (ran very well behind Theysken’s Theory in the Prestige, and may reverse form with second from that following below par run for that horse here last time)
Red Cadeux each way in the Cesarewitch at 14/1 (Excellent runs in defeat on last 3 races; Murtagh on board and only negative really is draw)
Sentry Duty each/way in the Cesarewitch at 10/1 (Has been kept fresh for this since Goodwood, Oliver Peslier booked and yard has won this in 2003 and 2008)
Universal Truth each/way in the Cesarewitch at 10/1 (Hurdlers have won 9 of the last 2 runnings of this, holds high class form in NH flat races and goes for shrewd yard; Draw should suit)
Cape Dollar each/way in the Rockfel at 6/1 (ran very well behind Theysken’s Theory in the Prestige, and may reverse form with second from that following below par run for that horse here last time)
Football Betting - 16th October 2010
With a decent amount of success during the Interlull (with a shocking Northern Ireland performance and Robbie Keane errors robbing us of 3 or more wins), I’m pushing ahead with this.
The Premiership is back with plenty of tight looking matches. STOKE have recovered impressively from a slow start to the season and might be able to grab another three points at the Reebok Stadium. Bolton’s defence has looked shaky at times and the in from Kenywne Jones may just the win for Stoke, who have only won one of the last eight league meetings with Bolton but are unbeaten in their last six games played in October in the Premier League, winning four and drawing two. With a tight game in store, back Stoke with the draw no bet at 6/4 general.
Tottenham will arrive at FULHAM on Saturday knowing a win could temporarily send them as high as third, level on points with second-placed Manchester City. However, they do have the tough test of Inter Milan at the San Siro to come and don’t have a great record at Fulham (Fulham are unbeaten in their last eight home league games against Spurs).
Their never-say-die spirit has enabled them to maintain an unbeaten start to the season and they are well enough organised to be able to repel Spurs. Given that 6 out of their 7 games have been draws, it’s well worth backing the draw at decent odds and having a sneaky bet on Fulham draw no bet at 11/10.
Manchester United’s form has been iffy of late and maybe now is the best time for West Brom, who had the pace to get a win at Arsenal, who allowed them to play. United, at fortress Old Trafford, won’t be so obliging though, and it’s worth remembering that the defence/goalkeeper simply handed them that win and this will be harder. It’s not easy to predict, but a 3-1 win for Manchester United may not be out of the reckoning at a big looking 9/1, while they should be leading at half time, so that’s worth backing at 8/11.
It was easy to berate WIGAN at the beginning of this season but they have really picked up of late and I see no reason why they should be as big as 7/2 at St Jame’s Park. Newcastle have lost their last two games in the league, their last two games at home (to Blackpool and Stoke) and look dodgy odds-on chances to me who can be taken on by a side with an unbeaten away record this season, including a 1-0 win at Tottenham, so back Wigan and also Wigan, Draw no bet.
West Ham are finally beginning to gather some momentum after a slow start under Avram Grant, but they may find that Wolves need to bite back as they have to play Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal in their four following fixtures. West Ham have the most confidence at the moment but are hardly worth backing and the DRAW looks standout. Wolves/Draw is worth chancing in the half-time/full-time market at 14/1, as they can make a fast start and will need to.
Over in Spain, it looks like a top night again in La Liga. Before we get stuck into Barcelona, Real Madrid and Valencia, it stands out that ATHELTICO MADRID have only dropped points at the Mestalla, against Barcelona and at the Ramos Sanchen (Sevilla) and are well worth backing against Getafe, despite the visitors being on a run of form of some sorts and the home side being on a poor run of form.
On Saturday evening, Barcelona face their sternest examination of the season to date when they have to meet Valencia at the Camp Nou. It’s a super tight game to predict, with many factors in favour of each team.
On Valencia’s side, Guardiola has a mediocre record of getting the best from his players following international breaks, winning only three of ten fixtures coming back from such disruptions, and if Hercules can beat them, then why not Valencia?
On the other hand, this is the third season in succession, Valencia travel up to the Camp Nou in decent shape and looking for some answers about just how good they are. On the previous two occasions, they returned defeated and deflated.
In a game which is too tight to predict on many levels, goals look assured and backing over 3.5 goals might just bring about rewards, especially if Valencia can get in on the scoring act.
The bet of the day however, may well be at La Roselda, where Malaga haven’t earned a single point all year yet have taken maximum points on the road. Just as the critics were ready to groan at the monotonous nature of REAL MADRID’S progress this season, they exploded into life prior to the international break, recording a thumping 6-1 victory over Deportivo La Coruna.
Jose Mourinho’s side have been very tight at the back this season and even when dropping points have not conceded, so Real to win to nil tonight is too good to miss at 5/4 with bwin on Oddschecker.
Recommendations
Stoke to win draw no bet (6/4 general)
Fulham and Spurs to draw (23/10 Totesport)
Fulham to win draw no bet (11/10 Skybet)
Manchester United to win 3/1 (9/1 10/1 general)
Manchester United to lead at half time (8/111 Stan James)
Wigan to beat Newcastle (4/1 general)
Wigan to beat Newcastle draw no bet (11/4)
Wolves and Wigan to draw (23/10 Coral)
Wolves/Draw Half Time/Full Time (14/1 general)
Athletico Madrid to beat Getafe (10/11 Bet365)
Over 3.5 goals in Barcelona v Valencia (13/10 Bwin)
Real Madrid to win to nil at Malaga (5/4 with Bwin)
The Premiership is back with plenty of tight looking matches. STOKE have recovered impressively from a slow start to the season and might be able to grab another three points at the Reebok Stadium. Bolton’s defence has looked shaky at times and the in from Kenywne Jones may just the win for Stoke, who have only won one of the last eight league meetings with Bolton but are unbeaten in their last six games played in October in the Premier League, winning four and drawing two. With a tight game in store, back Stoke with the draw no bet at 6/4 general.
Tottenham will arrive at FULHAM on Saturday knowing a win could temporarily send them as high as third, level on points with second-placed Manchester City. However, they do have the tough test of Inter Milan at the San Siro to come and don’t have a great record at Fulham (Fulham are unbeaten in their last eight home league games against Spurs).
Their never-say-die spirit has enabled them to maintain an unbeaten start to the season and they are well enough organised to be able to repel Spurs. Given that 6 out of their 7 games have been draws, it’s well worth backing the draw at decent odds and having a sneaky bet on Fulham draw no bet at 11/10.
Manchester United’s form has been iffy of late and maybe now is the best time for West Brom, who had the pace to get a win at Arsenal, who allowed them to play. United, at fortress Old Trafford, won’t be so obliging though, and it’s worth remembering that the defence/goalkeeper simply handed them that win and this will be harder. It’s not easy to predict, but a 3-1 win for Manchester United may not be out of the reckoning at a big looking 9/1, while they should be leading at half time, so that’s worth backing at 8/11.
It was easy to berate WIGAN at the beginning of this season but they have really picked up of late and I see no reason why they should be as big as 7/2 at St Jame’s Park. Newcastle have lost their last two games in the league, their last two games at home (to Blackpool and Stoke) and look dodgy odds-on chances to me who can be taken on by a side with an unbeaten away record this season, including a 1-0 win at Tottenham, so back Wigan and also Wigan, Draw no bet.
West Ham are finally beginning to gather some momentum after a slow start under Avram Grant, but they may find that Wolves need to bite back as they have to play Chelsea, Manchester United, Manchester City and Arsenal in their four following fixtures. West Ham have the most confidence at the moment but are hardly worth backing and the DRAW looks standout. Wolves/Draw is worth chancing in the half-time/full-time market at 14/1, as they can make a fast start and will need to.
Over in Spain, it looks like a top night again in La Liga. Before we get stuck into Barcelona, Real Madrid and Valencia, it stands out that ATHELTICO MADRID have only dropped points at the Mestalla, against Barcelona and at the Ramos Sanchen (Sevilla) and are well worth backing against Getafe, despite the visitors being on a run of form of some sorts and the home side being on a poor run of form.
On Saturday evening, Barcelona face their sternest examination of the season to date when they have to meet Valencia at the Camp Nou. It’s a super tight game to predict, with many factors in favour of each team.
On Valencia’s side, Guardiola has a mediocre record of getting the best from his players following international breaks, winning only three of ten fixtures coming back from such disruptions, and if Hercules can beat them, then why not Valencia?
On the other hand, this is the third season in succession, Valencia travel up to the Camp Nou in decent shape and looking for some answers about just how good they are. On the previous two occasions, they returned defeated and deflated.
In a game which is too tight to predict on many levels, goals look assured and backing over 3.5 goals might just bring about rewards, especially if Valencia can get in on the scoring act.
The bet of the day however, may well be at La Roselda, where Malaga haven’t earned a single point all year yet have taken maximum points on the road. Just as the critics were ready to groan at the monotonous nature of REAL MADRID’S progress this season, they exploded into life prior to the international break, recording a thumping 6-1 victory over Deportivo La Coruna.
Jose Mourinho’s side have been very tight at the back this season and even when dropping points have not conceded, so Real to win to nil tonight is too good to miss at 5/4 with bwin on Oddschecker.
Recommendations
Stoke to win draw no bet (6/4 general)
Fulham and Spurs to draw (23/10 Totesport)
Fulham to win draw no bet (11/10 Skybet)
Manchester United to win 3/1 (9/1 10/1 general)
Manchester United to lead at half time (8/111 Stan James)
Wigan to beat Newcastle (4/1 general)
Wigan to beat Newcastle draw no bet (11/4)
Wolves and Wigan to draw (23/10 Coral)
Wolves/Draw Half Time/Full Time (14/1 general)
Athletico Madrid to beat Getafe (10/11 Bet365)
Over 3.5 goals in Barcelona v Valencia (13/10 Bwin)
Real Madrid to win to nil at Malaga (5/4 with Bwin)
Friday, 15 October 2010
Victor Chandler Challenge Stakes 2010
1.50 Newmarket
Victor Chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £51,093
Picks: Delegator (win), Mabait (each/way)
Shakesperian: Tough reliable sort who won well on Godolphin debut at Epsom to start season but had been seemingly exposed since in better races; However, dangerous when allowed to go infront, and beat field rated much higher when allowed lead in Hungerford; Well beaten when not allowed same luxury in Hugerford and with Red Jazz in field, that scenario seems set to repeat itself.
Cat Junior: Consistent horse who has been hard to win with, despite a number of good runs in strong company; Looked good when winning Group 3 at Meydan before disappointing when ninth behind Calming Influence and in Queen Anne but right back to best with fast closing seconds in Betfair Cup and Hungerford Stakes; Likely to find one too good.
Delegator: Was a high-class performer last year, winning the Craven prior to finishing second in the 2000 Guineas and St James's Palace Stakes, winning the Celebration Mile, coming third in the QEII and respectable fifth in Breeder’s Cup Mile; Winner of the Dubai Duty Free Cup on his return from injury last month and with that under his belt, likely to take all the beating.
Dream Eater: Excellent 5th in 2,000 Guineas 2 years ago before then finishing 3rd in the Jersey Stakes, suffering a setback afterwards; Has continued to run some consistent races at decent level (good second in Turkey last time) and had a career best season, but has found it hard to win sometimes and this is good race.
Duff: Back to near best when only beaten 4 and a bit lengths in Park Stakes but has had long season and will probably find this too much.
Harrison George: Put in a number of good handicap efforts last term and has already improved on them with 3 wins this year, the first being a handicap romp off a mark of 95, a tight win in Conditions company and a listed success last time; Has been exposed though and this is a tough affair.
High Standing: Has made up into a very high class sprinter over the past year and a half and got not run until last furlong in Maurice De Gheest, so very encouraging to see him making such fast late progress into third; Never got going in Park Stakes last time and not east to fancy of the back of that.
Himalaya: Made highly encouraging debut over 6f and backed up that with 4th in Coventry Stakes which has worked out very well since (1st 3 infront of him all Group 1 winners since); Hasn’t reached that form but shown admirable consistency since, racking up a series of cracking placed efforts in top handicaps over 6f/7f this summer; Made step up into group company the last twice and can run well again.
Mabait: Typically progressive Luca Cumani handicapper who was on a winning streak until being denied in unlucky fashion in last furlong of Victoria Cup; Has made step up into group company with relatively easy fashion and can make mark again here.
Main Aim: Started last year on a real streak, winning this very race, beating Arabian Gleam, Asset and Tariq; Good effort when second in Group 1 July Cup, but amiss on next 2 starts last year; Has comeback as good as ever this year, and plenty of runs to recommend him, although he needs to run near enough a career best to win this; Fourth in weaker renewal last year.
Sir Gerry: Got within a half a length of Delegator 2 starts ago (tried to bite him close home) but not horse he once was and has too much on his plate to be seriously backed here.
Red Jazz: Made all in Free Handicap at Newmarket in April and has come a long way since then, bettering that effort every time in defeat; Unlucky to be caught on all six occasions sine but seemingly only runs relative to form of race; Career best when 3rd in QEII and will go very close if doing so again.
Golden Stream: Best from lags way behind these, even allowing for the fact she’s a useful horse.
Blue Angel: Been at top of her game of late, again not enjoying the clearest of runs when second to Rainfall in listed race at Ascot recently; Has several solid efforts but needs way more here.
VERDICT: With so many horses either stepping up (High Standing) or dropping down in trip, this is a race packed full of decent horses. Red Jazz is the one to beat based on his QEII run but the form is open to interpretation and DELEGATOR was super impressive on a recent comeback run, and should take all the beating based on improvement from that and his form last year. MABAIT is a nice idea of an each/way saver, as he can run a place at least on his best form.
Victor Chandler Challenge Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £51,093
Picks: Delegator (win), Mabait (each/way)
Shakesperian: Tough reliable sort who won well on Godolphin debut at Epsom to start season but had been seemingly exposed since in better races; However, dangerous when allowed to go infront, and beat field rated much higher when allowed lead in Hungerford; Well beaten when not allowed same luxury in Hugerford and with Red Jazz in field, that scenario seems set to repeat itself.
Cat Junior: Consistent horse who has been hard to win with, despite a number of good runs in strong company; Looked good when winning Group 3 at Meydan before disappointing when ninth behind Calming Influence and in Queen Anne but right back to best with fast closing seconds in Betfair Cup and Hungerford Stakes; Likely to find one too good.
Delegator: Was a high-class performer last year, winning the Craven prior to finishing second in the 2000 Guineas and St James's Palace Stakes, winning the Celebration Mile, coming third in the QEII and respectable fifth in Breeder’s Cup Mile; Winner of the Dubai Duty Free Cup on his return from injury last month and with that under his belt, likely to take all the beating.
Dream Eater: Excellent 5th in 2,000 Guineas 2 years ago before then finishing 3rd in the Jersey Stakes, suffering a setback afterwards; Has continued to run some consistent races at decent level (good second in Turkey last time) and had a career best season, but has found it hard to win sometimes and this is good race.
Duff: Back to near best when only beaten 4 and a bit lengths in Park Stakes but has had long season and will probably find this too much.
Harrison George: Put in a number of good handicap efforts last term and has already improved on them with 3 wins this year, the first being a handicap romp off a mark of 95, a tight win in Conditions company and a listed success last time; Has been exposed though and this is a tough affair.
High Standing: Has made up into a very high class sprinter over the past year and a half and got not run until last furlong in Maurice De Gheest, so very encouraging to see him making such fast late progress into third; Never got going in Park Stakes last time and not east to fancy of the back of that.
Himalaya: Made highly encouraging debut over 6f and backed up that with 4th in Coventry Stakes which has worked out very well since (1st 3 infront of him all Group 1 winners since); Hasn’t reached that form but shown admirable consistency since, racking up a series of cracking placed efforts in top handicaps over 6f/7f this summer; Made step up into group company the last twice and can run well again.
Mabait: Typically progressive Luca Cumani handicapper who was on a winning streak until being denied in unlucky fashion in last furlong of Victoria Cup; Has made step up into group company with relatively easy fashion and can make mark again here.
Main Aim: Started last year on a real streak, winning this very race, beating Arabian Gleam, Asset and Tariq; Good effort when second in Group 1 July Cup, but amiss on next 2 starts last year; Has comeback as good as ever this year, and plenty of runs to recommend him, although he needs to run near enough a career best to win this; Fourth in weaker renewal last year.
Sir Gerry: Got within a half a length of Delegator 2 starts ago (tried to bite him close home) but not horse he once was and has too much on his plate to be seriously backed here.
Red Jazz: Made all in Free Handicap at Newmarket in April and has come a long way since then, bettering that effort every time in defeat; Unlucky to be caught on all six occasions sine but seemingly only runs relative to form of race; Career best when 3rd in QEII and will go very close if doing so again.
Golden Stream: Best from lags way behind these, even allowing for the fact she’s a useful horse.
Blue Angel: Been at top of her game of late, again not enjoying the clearest of runs when second to Rainfall in listed race at Ascot recently; Has several solid efforts but needs way more here.
VERDICT: With so many horses either stepping up (High Standing) or dropping down in trip, this is a race packed full of decent horses. Red Jazz is the one to beat based on his QEII run but the form is open to interpretation and DELEGATOR was super impressive on a recent comeback run, and should take all the beating based on improvement from that and his form last year. MABAIT is a nice idea of an each/way saver, as he can run a place at least on his best form.
Dubai Dewhurst Stakes 2010
2.25 Newmarket
Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £180,074
Pick: Dream Ahead (win)
Dream Ahead: Smashed into on debut and didn’t disappointing, looking group class colt with a future when bolting in by 9 lengths on debut, still green as he hung badly left when clear; Coped with fast – track to Group 1 in exemplary fashion when smoothly winning Prix Morny in great style; Ran above even that when running away with Middle Park last time and should be hard to beat, although this tougher and he would like more cut.
Frankel: Very highly regarded colt who made serious impression when earning quotes of when winning better-than-average maiden in style at Newmarket on debut ; Easy demolition of 2 rivals in Doncaster conditions event was somehow surpassed by a contemptuously easy win in the Royal Lodge Stake s (10 lengths); Could be a true great.
Glor Na Mara: Made great start to life when only just beaten by Zoffany (ahead of Strong Suit) in Phenoix but has gone backwards quickly with ever run since, being beaten by Pathfork, Dingle View and then coming into 5th in the National Stakes; Hard task here and looks exposed.
Roderic O’Connor: Unlucky on debut, getting no run behind the impressive Dunboyne Express; Not seen in action since winning a Curragh maiden on Irish Derby day, but only one of 4 selected from Ballydoyle, and wouldn’t be running to be disgraced.
Saamidd: Supplemented for this off the back of extremely impressive performance in Newbury maiden, shooting clear up the centre of the Newbury straight and earning quotes of 20/1 for the guineas in the process; Now less than half the price after winning Champagne Stakes in cosy style (very strong form) last time and major player on search for first Group 1 success.
Waiter’s Dream: Improving with each runs, confirming promise shown when sixth at Newbury and seventh at Salisbury when making easy work of things at Newbury, making all and having the race in the bag from long way out; Took another step forward when slamming rivals in Acomb Stakes at York, but didn’t come on fro that in Champagne Stakes and looks coutclassed.
VERDICT: One of the best recent renewals of the Dewhurst, with 3 top class colts. Frankel could be a great horse and it would be no surprise to see him win this easily, but he has tough opposition in the shape of DREAM AHEAD and Saamidd, with the former looking like a top class colt already after 2 impressive Group 1 wins in the Morny and Middle Park. The ground exaggerated his winning distance but he was still impressive and can go close here, with Saamidd not far behind.
Dubai Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £180,074
Pick: Dream Ahead (win)
Dream Ahead: Smashed into on debut and didn’t disappointing, looking group class colt with a future when bolting in by 9 lengths on debut, still green as he hung badly left when clear; Coped with fast – track to Group 1 in exemplary fashion when smoothly winning Prix Morny in great style; Ran above even that when running away with Middle Park last time and should be hard to beat, although this tougher and he would like more cut.
Frankel: Very highly regarded colt who made serious impression when earning quotes of when winning better-than-average maiden in style at Newmarket on debut ; Easy demolition of 2 rivals in Doncaster conditions event was somehow surpassed by a contemptuously easy win in the Royal Lodge Stake s (10 lengths); Could be a true great.
Glor Na Mara: Made great start to life when only just beaten by Zoffany (ahead of Strong Suit) in Phenoix but has gone backwards quickly with ever run since, being beaten by Pathfork, Dingle View and then coming into 5th in the National Stakes; Hard task here and looks exposed.
Roderic O’Connor: Unlucky on debut, getting no run behind the impressive Dunboyne Express; Not seen in action since winning a Curragh maiden on Irish Derby day, but only one of 4 selected from Ballydoyle, and wouldn’t be running to be disgraced.
Saamidd: Supplemented for this off the back of extremely impressive performance in Newbury maiden, shooting clear up the centre of the Newbury straight and earning quotes of 20/1 for the guineas in the process; Now less than half the price after winning Champagne Stakes in cosy style (very strong form) last time and major player on search for first Group 1 success.
Waiter’s Dream: Improving with each runs, confirming promise shown when sixth at Newbury and seventh at Salisbury when making easy work of things at Newbury, making all and having the race in the bag from long way out; Took another step forward when slamming rivals in Acomb Stakes at York, but didn’t come on fro that in Champagne Stakes and looks coutclassed.
VERDICT: One of the best recent renewals of the Dewhurst, with 3 top class colts. Frankel could be a great horse and it would be no surprise to see him win this easily, but he has tough opposition in the shape of DREAM AHEAD and Saamidd, with the former looking like a top class colt already after 2 impressive Group 1 wins in the Morny and Middle Park. The ground exaggerated his winning distance but he was still impressive and can go close here, with Saamidd not far behind.
Emirates Airline Champion Stakes 2010
3.00 Newmarket
Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £213,739
Picks: Fuisse (each/way), Twice Over (win)
Alwarry: Progressive in 2009, winning a listed race at Goodwood and coming a staying-on fourth in King George at Ascot; Well held on belated return here earlier in month, and this way tougher, even with that under his belt.
Debussy: Taken form to a new level this year with win in the Huxley Stakes, followed up by Arlington Million success last time out; Sensational ride by William Buick helped matters a lot (as did very strong pace); Can run well but would need to progress again to win open race.
Fuisse: Looked as if he could reach great heights at 3, following up 6 length listed win with third in Prix Du Jockey Club; Has been steadily coming back to best this season, with impressive defeats of Dalghar and Beacon Lodge before 2 fantastic runs when fourth behind Makfi, Goldikova and Paco Boy, followed by remarkable win in Prix Jacques Le Marois conserving he ran loose twice; Progressive and fits the bill, so high on list.
Gitano Hernando: Progressed well in 2009, culminating in Goodwood Stakes win at Sainta Anita: Only run 3 times since, and was disappointing when only sixth in Dubai World Cup (considering that he missed BBC to prep for it); Pleasing return from 6 months off when landing Group 3 at Dundalk recently, but needs to prove as effective on turf.
Glass Harmonium: Looked set for big things this year after winning Gordon Richards stakes by a nose on comeback but hasn’t gone on from that since, and this looks a step up too much.
Sri Putra: Very talented and fairly very lightly raced colt who has an excellent level of form/consistency; Excelled himself when a fast closing second in the Eclipse, but bare for of that effort flattered him based on his next 2 seconds and this may be too much for him.
Twice Over: Always shown high class level of form but was transformed by 2 confidence boosters last season before taking this last year and then coming third in Breeders Cup Classic; Has continued in same vein of from, with an unlucky Prince Of Wales’s Second behind Byword being made up for with win in Eclipse: Shown good from when close second behind Rip Van Winkle (International) and Cape Blanco (Irish Champion Stakes) and can go close here, with conditions set to suit.
Vision D’Etat: High-class performer who has won a Prince Of Wale’s Stakes & Hong Kong Cup; Arrives here fresher than most after just 2 starts this year, smoothly winning Group 3 at Deauville in August last time; Form is working out well and should be spot on, so no real reason to go against him.
Poet’s Voice: Showed plenty of potential for all that he was very keen in the early part of last season (Broke out of stalls and managed to lose the Acomb Stakes by pulling to hard); Showed what he could do when beating Viscount Nelson in Champagne Stakes only to then run below his best when fourth in Middle Park; Finally back to form when wining Celebration Mile easily, and improved massively again when winning QEII last time out; Did benefit from a very strong gallop upfront and poor run of Makfi, but improving all the time and must be seen as major player.
Wigmore Hall: Has shown remarkable improvement this season, coming from bloodless handicap win to Group 1 second in America with Secretariat Stakes; Arugably lost the race by Jamie Spencer last time and although this is much tougher, he's talented, has a turn of foot and could find that the race is run to suit so is unlikely to be disgraced.
VERDICT: A strong and open renewal, with many of the horses having won a Group 1, so a fitting way for the contest to leave Newmarket. It's easy to see why Await The Dawn (sadly a non - runner), Poet's Voice and Gitano Hernando have their supporters but sometimes the answer is staring us in the face and Vision D'Etat is a top class, fresh horse who makes plenty of appeal, but FUISSE holds arguably the best form in his third behind Makfi, Paco Boy and Goldikova and has run arguably the most impressive race in managing to win the Jacques Le Marois after running around Longchamp twice. His best form gives him a great shout here. A saver is a good way of covering losses is to have a saver, and TWICE OVER fits the bill. He’s not as fresh and progressive as when winning this last year but everything else is in his favour, so rates a decent bet.
Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £213,739
Picks: Fuisse (each/way), Twice Over (win)
Alwarry: Progressive in 2009, winning a listed race at Goodwood and coming a staying-on fourth in King George at Ascot; Well held on belated return here earlier in month, and this way tougher, even with that under his belt.
Debussy: Taken form to a new level this year with win in the Huxley Stakes, followed up by Arlington Million success last time out; Sensational ride by William Buick helped matters a lot (as did very strong pace); Can run well but would need to progress again to win open race.
Fuisse: Looked as if he could reach great heights at 3, following up 6 length listed win with third in Prix Du Jockey Club; Has been steadily coming back to best this season, with impressive defeats of Dalghar and Beacon Lodge before 2 fantastic runs when fourth behind Makfi, Goldikova and Paco Boy, followed by remarkable win in Prix Jacques Le Marois conserving he ran loose twice; Progressive and fits the bill, so high on list.
Gitano Hernando: Progressed well in 2009, culminating in Goodwood Stakes win at Sainta Anita: Only run 3 times since, and was disappointing when only sixth in Dubai World Cup (considering that he missed BBC to prep for it); Pleasing return from 6 months off when landing Group 3 at Dundalk recently, but needs to prove as effective on turf.
Glass Harmonium: Looked set for big things this year after winning Gordon Richards stakes by a nose on comeback but hasn’t gone on from that since, and this looks a step up too much.
Sri Putra: Very talented and fairly very lightly raced colt who has an excellent level of form/consistency; Excelled himself when a fast closing second in the Eclipse, but bare for of that effort flattered him based on his next 2 seconds and this may be too much for him.
Twice Over: Always shown high class level of form but was transformed by 2 confidence boosters last season before taking this last year and then coming third in Breeders Cup Classic; Has continued in same vein of from, with an unlucky Prince Of Wales’s Second behind Byword being made up for with win in Eclipse: Shown good from when close second behind Rip Van Winkle (International) and Cape Blanco (Irish Champion Stakes) and can go close here, with conditions set to suit.
Vision D’Etat: High-class performer who has won a Prince Of Wale’s Stakes & Hong Kong Cup; Arrives here fresher than most after just 2 starts this year, smoothly winning Group 3 at Deauville in August last time; Form is working out well and should be spot on, so no real reason to go against him.
Poet’s Voice: Showed plenty of potential for all that he was very keen in the early part of last season (Broke out of stalls and managed to lose the Acomb Stakes by pulling to hard); Showed what he could do when beating Viscount Nelson in Champagne Stakes only to then run below his best when fourth in Middle Park; Finally back to form when wining Celebration Mile easily, and improved massively again when winning QEII last time out; Did benefit from a very strong gallop upfront and poor run of Makfi, but improving all the time and must be seen as major player.
Wigmore Hall: Has shown remarkable improvement this season, coming from bloodless handicap win to Group 1 second in America with Secretariat Stakes; Arugably lost the race by Jamie Spencer last time and although this is much tougher, he's talented, has a turn of foot and could find that the race is run to suit so is unlikely to be disgraced.
VERDICT: A strong and open renewal, with many of the horses having won a Group 1, so a fitting way for the contest to leave Newmarket. It's easy to see why Await The Dawn (sadly a non - runner), Poet's Voice and Gitano Hernando have their supporters but sometimes the answer is staring us in the face and Vision D'Etat is a top class, fresh horse who makes plenty of appeal, but FUISSE holds arguably the best form in his third behind Makfi, Paco Boy and Goldikova and has run arguably the most impressive race in managing to win the Jacques Le Marois after running around Longchamp twice. His best form gives him a great shout here. A saver is a good way of covering losses is to have a saver, and TWICE OVER fits the bill. He’s not as fresh and progressive as when winning this last year but everything else is in his favour, so rates a decent bet.
Sunday, 10 October 2010
Football - Euro 2012 Qualifiers
It’s a rather uninspiring set of matches on Tuesday to be frank, with the exception of seeing a lot of good Spanish players (hopefully) at Hampden on Tuesday. I’d hope to see Jack Wilshire playing for England against Montegnro.
There are always some mismatches with the Qualifiers and NORTHERN IRELAND against the Faroes is one of them.There’s a danger that they may play their reserves but even then I can’t see them wanting to throw away easy points in such a tough group. They won’t leak a goal if they can keep Italy out, and surely they should score one or two before 45 mins. Northern Ireland are 10/11 to win to nil, and that’s arguably too short, along with an HT/FT double.
For all that PORTUGAL managed to lose to Norway on the road 2 games ago, Iceland look severely overmatched and they are surely worth a small poke to win both halves, with a decent range of prices on offer.
In a more even match - up, it might not seem wise to back HOLLAND at 4/6 against a decent Sweden side after they struggled to beat Moldova on Friday, but they will be much stronger at home and can bank on Van Der Vaart, Van Bommel, Wesley Sneijder and namely Klaas Jan – Huntleaar to get them out of trouble if they need.
Slovakia will be a tricky test for IRELAND following a defeat to Russia, but the Slovaks lost 3-1 to Armenia last time out and may be there for the taking at odds against. Ireland were shocking against Russia but a sprinted comeback showed that was not their true showing and they should be given another chance.
France against Luxembourg is another mismatch, but so was France – Romania and Laurent Blanc’s side look to be setting themselves up to grind out victories, and maybe under 3.5 goals may be the way to go, because at 5/6 it’s much better than backing over 2.5 and France are hardly value to thrash teams now.
Scotland tried out a novel 4-6-0 formation against the Czech Republic on Friday night only to see it backfire horribly as they spent the entire evening on the back foot, failing to create a sniff of a chance against a team short of confidence following a home defeat to the Lithuanians. Faced with such pressure, inevitably a defensive error was drawn, and the Czechs enjoyed a thoroughly deserved 1-0 success. SPAIN must be licking their lips at the prospect of meeting such a side, and are surely worth a lump on as they will have the attacking strength to carve open opportunities. If Spain are sharp, they’ll score sooner rather than later so back them to lead at Half Time and the double result, because David Villa and Llorente are too short to trust with scoring.
Recommendations
Northern Ireland to beat the Faroes (4/11 Skybet, William Hill)
Northern Ireland Half/Time - Full/Time (10/11 Bet365, Paddy Power, Bwin)
Away Team (Northern Ireland) To Win To Nil (10/11 Bwin)
Portugal to win both halves against Iceland (12/5 Bwin)
Holland to beat Sweden (8/13 Unibet)
Ireland to beat Slovakia (12/5 Boylesports)
Under 3.5 goals in France v Luxemborg (5/6 Paddy Power)
Spain to beat Scotland (4/11 general)
Spain to win both halves against Scotland (12/5 Paddy Power)
Spain to lead at Half Time (20/21 Bet365)
There are always some mismatches with the Qualifiers and NORTHERN IRELAND against the Faroes is one of them.There’s a danger that they may play their reserves but even then I can’t see them wanting to throw away easy points in such a tough group. They won’t leak a goal if they can keep Italy out, and surely they should score one or two before 45 mins. Northern Ireland are 10/11 to win to nil, and that’s arguably too short, along with an HT/FT double.
For all that PORTUGAL managed to lose to Norway on the road 2 games ago, Iceland look severely overmatched and they are surely worth a small poke to win both halves, with a decent range of prices on offer.
In a more even match - up, it might not seem wise to back HOLLAND at 4/6 against a decent Sweden side after they struggled to beat Moldova on Friday, but they will be much stronger at home and can bank on Van Der Vaart, Van Bommel, Wesley Sneijder and namely Klaas Jan – Huntleaar to get them out of trouble if they need.
Slovakia will be a tricky test for IRELAND following a defeat to Russia, but the Slovaks lost 3-1 to Armenia last time out and may be there for the taking at odds against. Ireland were shocking against Russia but a sprinted comeback showed that was not their true showing and they should be given another chance.
France against Luxembourg is another mismatch, but so was France – Romania and Laurent Blanc’s side look to be setting themselves up to grind out victories, and maybe under 3.5 goals may be the way to go, because at 5/6 it’s much better than backing over 2.5 and France are hardly value to thrash teams now.
Scotland tried out a novel 4-6-0 formation against the Czech Republic on Friday night only to see it backfire horribly as they spent the entire evening on the back foot, failing to create a sniff of a chance against a team short of confidence following a home defeat to the Lithuanians. Faced with such pressure, inevitably a defensive error was drawn, and the Czechs enjoyed a thoroughly deserved 1-0 success. SPAIN must be licking their lips at the prospect of meeting such a side, and are surely worth a lump on as they will have the attacking strength to carve open opportunities. If Spain are sharp, they’ll score sooner rather than later so back them to lead at Half Time and the double result, because David Villa and Llorente are too short to trust with scoring.
Recommendations
Northern Ireland to beat the Faroes (4/11 Skybet, William Hill)
Northern Ireland Half/Time - Full/Time (10/11 Bet365, Paddy Power, Bwin)
Away Team (Northern Ireland) To Win To Nil (10/11 Bwin)
Portugal to win both halves against Iceland (12/5 Bwin)
Holland to beat Sweden (8/13 Unibet)
Ireland to beat Slovakia (12/5 Boylesports)
Under 3.5 goals in France v Luxemborg (5/6 Paddy Power)
Spain to beat Scotland (4/11 general)
Spain to win both halves against Scotland (12/5 Paddy Power)
Spain to lead at Half Time (20/21 Bet365)
NFL Blog - 10/10/10
With the blog getting bigger and bigger, and number of NFL fans around here, it’s time to move into the big bold world that is the NFL. The tips are very similar to the Racing Post, and I've hardly been able to write much, but it's a new direction.
Cleveland will look to make a bold bid to stop the ATLANTA FACLONS, but they may become unstuck as the Falcons look for their fourth win of the season, in an attempt to win four straight games for the first time since 2004, a year in which they won the NFC South and made the NFC Championship Game. Atlanta look like a relatively strong side this year and can make it 5-1.
At Chicago, CAROLINA can take advantage of a very poor defensive line that was exposed badly last week.
The Bears named Todd Collins the starter at the QB position after Jay Cutler was ruled out of the game after suffering a concussion in the Sunday night game against the NY Giants (he got sacked NINE times). Carolina’s defence is tough and solid and they can steal it here.
Even though GREEN BAY PACKERS have injury problems, it’s time for them to start playing like Super Bowl favourites and the Redskins also have injury issues, so take Packers here to beat a weak Washington defence.
In the TV Games, back INDIANAPOLIS to run through a very poor Chiefs line, SAN DIEGO to outpass Oakland, and PHILADELPHIA to shock San Francisco.
Atlanta to beat Cleveland (8/13 SkyBet, Stan James, Paddy Power)
Carolina to beat Chicago (4/6 general, 20/27 Skybet)
Green Bay to beat Washington (8//1 & 4/6 in places)
Indianapolis to beat Kansas (10/33 Paddy Power)
San Diego to beat Oakland (10/27 Paddy Power; 4/11 general)
Philadelphia to beat San Francisco (8/5 best price)
Cleveland will look to make a bold bid to stop the ATLANTA FACLONS, but they may become unstuck as the Falcons look for their fourth win of the season, in an attempt to win four straight games for the first time since 2004, a year in which they won the NFC South and made the NFC Championship Game. Atlanta look like a relatively strong side this year and can make it 5-1.
At Chicago, CAROLINA can take advantage of a very poor defensive line that was exposed badly last week.
The Bears named Todd Collins the starter at the QB position after Jay Cutler was ruled out of the game after suffering a concussion in the Sunday night game against the NY Giants (he got sacked NINE times). Carolina’s defence is tough and solid and they can steal it here.
Even though GREEN BAY PACKERS have injury problems, it’s time for them to start playing like Super Bowl favourites and the Redskins also have injury issues, so take Packers here to beat a weak Washington defence.
In the TV Games, back INDIANAPOLIS to run through a very poor Chiefs line, SAN DIEGO to outpass Oakland, and PHILADELPHIA to shock San Francisco.
Atlanta to beat Cleveland (8/13 SkyBet, Stan James, Paddy Power)
Carolina to beat Chicago (4/6 general, 20/27 Skybet)
Green Bay to beat Washington (8//1 & 4/6 in places)
Indianapolis to beat Kansas (10/33 Paddy Power)
San Diego to beat Oakland (10/27 Paddy Power; 4/11 general)
Philadelphia to beat San Francisco (8/5 best price)
Saturday, 9 October 2010
Racing Today - 9th October 2010
Sorry for the lateness and shortness of it, but I’ve been away for a while this week. Richard Hughes is still going for the title at full pelt despite a 6 day ban and he may have a decent day, with several good looking mounts. The best of these may be first up at 1.55 with BIG ISSUE in the Conditions Stakes. There’s a doubt as to whether he is as far ahead of his rivals as BHA ratings suggest but, having run creditably in higher grade, he is likely to prove equal to the task anyway.
In the Cornwallis (2.30), Dinkum Diamond and Pabusar head the market, with Invincible Ridge and Marine Commando also respected. They all need to show form with serious cut in the ground though, and ELECTRIC WAVES has winning form with a bit of give in the ground and, although looking slightly outclassed in Group 2 company at Doncaster last time (took long time to find stride), this progressive filly could bounce back to form with less on her plate today, and is worth an each/way bet.
In the Bengough Stakes (3.05), Redford goes for a hat-trick with the inform Hughes on board, and while he should go close, he hasn’t screamed Group winner. The best thing to do maybe to go each/way on GENKI, who always runs his race and has come third in the Betfred Sprint Cup, so should be thereabouts again, not to mention the fact that he’s weighted to reverse form (6lbs better off form 3 lengths beating) and BEWITCHED, who has been very solid at this level all season, handles soft ground and may well be progressive enough to take a major hand.
The Autumn Stakes (4.15) should prove a very interesting race, with a 25/1 shot for the Derby in Masked Marvel turning a lot of heads. He does have a lot to prove though and even with the future in mind, today TOOLAIN may get the better of him. He’s been absent since beating Galtymore Lad over 7 furlongs here in July, and that form is rock solid as Wootton Bassett is the only horse to have beaten Mick Channon's runner since. Al Madina should run a decent race (he form of the May Hill looks strong) but Paunasias is more interesting as a prospect, especially as he’s shown a decent level of form so far.
Only one race at York interests me, and it’s the Rockingham Stakes (3.20). Paul Hanagan will be gutted if he can’t get the win on BAREFOOT LADY, following a drop in class from Group 3 to listed level.
Recommendations
Big Issue to win the 1.55 Ascot (10/11)
Electric Waves each/way in the 2.30 Ascot (6/1)
Genki & Bewitched each/way in the Bengough Stakes (6/1, & 9/1, 3.05 Ascot)
Toolain to win the 4.15 Ascot (5/2)
Barefoot Lady to win the 3.20 York (7/2)
In the Cornwallis (2.30), Dinkum Diamond and Pabusar head the market, with Invincible Ridge and Marine Commando also respected. They all need to show form with serious cut in the ground though, and ELECTRIC WAVES has winning form with a bit of give in the ground and, although looking slightly outclassed in Group 2 company at Doncaster last time (took long time to find stride), this progressive filly could bounce back to form with less on her plate today, and is worth an each/way bet.
In the Bengough Stakes (3.05), Redford goes for a hat-trick with the inform Hughes on board, and while he should go close, he hasn’t screamed Group winner. The best thing to do maybe to go each/way on GENKI, who always runs his race and has come third in the Betfred Sprint Cup, so should be thereabouts again, not to mention the fact that he’s weighted to reverse form (6lbs better off form 3 lengths beating) and BEWITCHED, who has been very solid at this level all season, handles soft ground and may well be progressive enough to take a major hand.
The Autumn Stakes (4.15) should prove a very interesting race, with a 25/1 shot for the Derby in Masked Marvel turning a lot of heads. He does have a lot to prove though and even with the future in mind, today TOOLAIN may get the better of him. He’s been absent since beating Galtymore Lad over 7 furlongs here in July, and that form is rock solid as Wootton Bassett is the only horse to have beaten Mick Channon's runner since. Al Madina should run a decent race (he form of the May Hill looks strong) but Paunasias is more interesting as a prospect, especially as he’s shown a decent level of form so far.
Only one race at York interests me, and it’s the Rockingham Stakes (3.20). Paul Hanagan will be gutted if he can’t get the win on BAREFOOT LADY, following a drop in class from Group 3 to listed level.
Recommendations
Big Issue to win the 1.55 Ascot (10/11)
Electric Waves each/way in the 2.30 Ascot (6/1)
Genki & Bewitched each/way in the Bengough Stakes (6/1, & 9/1, 3.05 Ascot)
Toolain to win the 4.15 Ascot (5/2)
Barefoot Lady to win the 3.20 York (7/2)
Sunday, 3 October 2010
NYSE Euronext Prix De l'Opera 2010
4.35 Longchamp
NYSE Euronext Prix De l'Opera (Fillies' Group 1) (3YO plus)
Winner €171,630 - 11 run -
Pick: Stacelita (win)
Board Meeting: Well beaten on both starts this year but would surely take major hand based on efforts in Vermille and this last season, only a couple of lengths behind good fillies in Stacelita and Shalnnaya; Third in Prix Jean Romanet augurs well although this just as hard.
Anatara: Promising Godolphin recruit who romped home with German group event when last seen there; Made perfect start for Goldophin when winning Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom (gave 3lbs to Reggane)and ran respectable race in Windsor Forest; Better effort in Nassau and Prix Jean Romanet, but soft ground hardly a great help to her chances of reversing form.
Lush Lashes: Was once great filly before Retirement, winning three Group 1 races, the Coronation Stakes, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Matron at Leopardstown, finishing second in the Nassau and this; Lost form and was retired before having been brought back after losing her baby to Sea The Stars; Has run well to be fourth on both runs since her break, especially in a good race last time at the Curragh; Not discounted.
Fleur Enchante: Won 2 starts ago but has suffered last 5 defeats in Grade 3 or lesser company; Bypassed here.
Stacelita: Developed into a top class 10f – middle distance filly last year, romping him in Prix Saint Alary and French Oaks before very respectable efforts in Vermille and Arc (1m4f not suiting); Fair effort when fourth behind Goldikova but looked on way back to best when comfortably landing odds in Group 3 at Longchamp; Excellent second behind Midday before winning Prix Jean Romanet and should be nearly impossible to beat under ground conditions here.
Rosanara: Showed immense promise when landing debut race and then Marcel Boussac in good style, although little disappointing when beaten into third on final start in Gran Criterium (soft ground not suit); Has been running consistently this season with a fourth in the French 1,000 Guineas and then coming second to stable-companion Sarafina in the Prix de Diane, but lacklustre run in Nassau leaves lot to think about with chances.
Field Day: Winner of 3 of her 5 starts (runner-up on other 2); Created deep impression by winning good back-end maiden (has worked out well) before running well in 2 handicaps this year, going down well on the first run, before winning handily last time; Has stepped up into Group company with demolition of listed field and was unlucky not to win last time, but this at a new trip is going to be much harder for her.
Lily Of The Valley: Deserves a crack at this, having been four out of four this year, rising in class each time; Only just pipped Nassau fifth Contrednase at Deauville last time (impressing how she still has to improve to take a big hand) but going right way and surely more to come.
Elle Shadow: With only 2 wins to her name (although one of those is against male opposition) it may seem hard to rate her form highly, but German runners have a great record in this and not to be underestimated.
Nouryia: Has been in some fine form this year, deifying a penalty to bring up her hat-trick and record a Listed double in the John Musker Fillies' Stakes last time out; Did win that on soft last time out, and likely to improve again.
Dariole: Looked progressive when winning the Prix Penelope and connection fancied her enough to pay 15,000 Euros to get into the Prix Saint Alary, but has had her limitations fairly well exposed now and looks like a back marker.
VERDICT: A strong and interesting UK & Irish Challenge is headed by Nouriya and Lush Lashes, with Field Day looking interesting, but STACELITA is a beast of a mare on soft ground and can win again to confirm recent Deauville superiority over Antara, Board Meeting and Fleur Enchantee.
NYSE Euronext Prix De l'Opera (Fillies' Group 1) (3YO plus)
Winner €171,630 - 11 run -
Pick: Stacelita (win)
Board Meeting: Well beaten on both starts this year but would surely take major hand based on efforts in Vermille and this last season, only a couple of lengths behind good fillies in Stacelita and Shalnnaya; Third in Prix Jean Romanet augurs well although this just as hard.
Anatara: Promising Godolphin recruit who romped home with German group event when last seen there; Made perfect start for Goldophin when winning Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom (gave 3lbs to Reggane)and ran respectable race in Windsor Forest; Better effort in Nassau and Prix Jean Romanet, but soft ground hardly a great help to her chances of reversing form.
Lush Lashes: Was once great filly before Retirement, winning three Group 1 races, the Coronation Stakes, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Matron at Leopardstown, finishing second in the Nassau and this; Lost form and was retired before having been brought back after losing her baby to Sea The Stars; Has run well to be fourth on both runs since her break, especially in a good race last time at the Curragh; Not discounted.
Fleur Enchante: Won 2 starts ago but has suffered last 5 defeats in Grade 3 or lesser company; Bypassed here.
Stacelita: Developed into a top class 10f – middle distance filly last year, romping him in Prix Saint Alary and French Oaks before very respectable efforts in Vermille and Arc (1m4f not suiting); Fair effort when fourth behind Goldikova but looked on way back to best when comfortably landing odds in Group 3 at Longchamp; Excellent second behind Midday before winning Prix Jean Romanet and should be nearly impossible to beat under ground conditions here.
Rosanara: Showed immense promise when landing debut race and then Marcel Boussac in good style, although little disappointing when beaten into third on final start in Gran Criterium (soft ground not suit); Has been running consistently this season with a fourth in the French 1,000 Guineas and then coming second to stable-companion Sarafina in the Prix de Diane, but lacklustre run in Nassau leaves lot to think about with chances.
Field Day: Winner of 3 of her 5 starts (runner-up on other 2); Created deep impression by winning good back-end maiden (has worked out well) before running well in 2 handicaps this year, going down well on the first run, before winning handily last time; Has stepped up into Group company with demolition of listed field and was unlucky not to win last time, but this at a new trip is going to be much harder for her.
Lily Of The Valley: Deserves a crack at this, having been four out of four this year, rising in class each time; Only just pipped Nassau fifth Contrednase at Deauville last time (impressing how she still has to improve to take a big hand) but going right way and surely more to come.
Elle Shadow: With only 2 wins to her name (although one of those is against male opposition) it may seem hard to rate her form highly, but German runners have a great record in this and not to be underestimated.
Nouryia: Has been in some fine form this year, deifying a penalty to bring up her hat-trick and record a Listed double in the John Musker Fillies' Stakes last time out; Did win that on soft last time out, and likely to improve again.
Dariole: Looked progressive when winning the Prix Penelope and connection fancied her enough to pay 15,000 Euros to get into the Prix Saint Alary, but has had her limitations fairly well exposed now and looks like a back marker.
VERDICT: A strong and interesting UK & Irish Challenge is headed by Nouriya and Lush Lashes, with Field Day looking interesting, but STACELITA is a beast of a mare on soft ground and can win again to confirm recent Deauville superiority over Antara, Board Meeting and Fleur Enchantee.
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