Today's Pointers - Leicester 31st March 2011

After an enforced absence, the blog has had a well needed turnaround of late, epically with nine of our thirteen selections coming in on Wednesday thanks to some amazing games and quality brilliant performances.  So much for the interlull, eh?

As if that wasn’t enough, our pre tournament picks India have made the Cricket World Cup final. Some may have argued that the prices haven’t allowed for much value; However a 3 pt stake at 5/4 for them to reach the final essentially means that we had 5/4 about them beating Pakistan, and their win now doubles up for us as an 11/4 bet about them beating Sri Lanka; The best price around is now 4/6.

The flat season is underway earlier than ever, and there’s masses and masses of promise to come. Many will still be focusing on Aintree and Punchestown, but one thing we are guaranteed is quality racing every weekend and weekdays; And with so many countries and disciplines to choose from, you’re never short of a good race. It’s got a significant advantage over jumps in the fact that there are always plenty of good races, starting from the Guineas trials. Some will disagree, but I can’t wait and this is literally the highpoint of the racing year, with nearly every racing distinction in the world holding a top event.

Anyway, enough rambling on about our wonderful sport, as the flat season started yesterday (as previously referred to) and the best action comes at Leicester, where Ryan Moore bids to make a good start to his title challenge and champion Paul Hanagan, fresh from a double yesterday, bids to continue the good work.

It might seem strange to recommend a punt on an early season Maiden Auction Stakes (2.20 Leicester) but I can’t get away from WAYBULOO, a half-sister to three winning sprinters and from the family of a Queen Mary winning sprinter. Champion Paul Hanagan has been booked, and Gay Kellaway’s stable can be trusted to get a juvenile ready. The betting will clearly be highly informative, with all seven making their debuts but a decent price should be around and the filly can go close.

One of the key features of the midweek cards is a good three year old handicap and at 3.20, 5 decent winners clash. The front two in the betting are typical handicapping types. Sadler’s Risk showed guts in abundance to win her over a mile last year and is a typical Mark Johnston horse for the fact that he’ll improve for a trip but the amount of weight he has to give to MAN OF GOD may just stop him. Quick ground’s an unknown but over this longer trip on his handicap bow, a big run looks on the cards and he showed useful form last year. A derby entry beckons well and he can justify a short evening price of 11/8 with Paddy Power.

Advice

1 pt win Waybuloo (2.20 Leicester)

1 pt win Man Of God, 3.20 Leicester (11/8 Paddy Power)

Euro 2012 Qualifers - 29th March

Lithuania (11/1) v Spain (3/10)

Many will expect this to be a walkover but while Spain beat Lithuania 3-1 in Salamanca last October they had to work hard to open up their visitors, all three goals coming in the second half, while the minnows did beat Poland 2-0 using tactics they hope to use against Spain. Many in the Spanish camp have already expressed concerns about playing surface at the Darius and Girenas stadium, which has barely any grass on it after a harsh winter, but they can battle if needed and should be clear of their rivals once again.

Advice: 2.5 pts Spain/Spain double result, (5/6 Boylesports)

Northern Ireland (2/1) v Slovenia (17/10)

Northern Ireland played brilliantly for a long time away to Serbia but may have taken a lot out of themselves in the process, and will be hurt by absence of the injured Kyle Lafferty and suspended David Healy. Slovenia are an improving side who put up a very good fight against Cesare Prandelli's new-look Italy and may be able to snatch a win here.

Advice: 0.75 pts Slovenia (17/10 Blue Sq)

Sweden (1/5) v Moldova (18/1)

Sweden are the clear favourites but they don’t offer much at 1/5 and a handicap bet doesn’t appeal given that  will be without the entire back four that started his country's previous home qualifier. Moldova have kept things tight in all of their last few matches and may be able to stay with Sweden here.

Advice: 0.5 pts Moldova +2.5 on Asian H’cap (evs Victor Chandler)

Belgium (1/5) v Azerbaijan (18/1)

Belgium showed serious promise when ending Austria’s unbeaten run on Friday and have a much simpler task against Azerbaijan at home. Not only did Axel Witsel score twice but Dietmar Constantini's team were muted as an attacking force and while Azerbaijan may put up a decent fight (only Germany have trashed them in their last 6 games) Belgium should be too good.

Advice: 3 pts Belgium/Belgium double result (4/6 Stan James)

Netherlands (1/7) v Hungary (26/1)

Holland were rampant when trashing Hungary 4-0 to maintain their 100% record on Friday despite Mark van Bommel missing out with a thigh injury, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar is recovering from a knee problem and winger Arjen Robben being side-lined with a groin strain. Home advantage will make things much easier and much the same result is expected.

Advice: 2 pts Netherlands to win both halves (10/11 SkyBet)

Turkey (8/15) v Austria (3/1)

Guus Hiddink’s Turkey are the clear market favourites, which is probably fair given Austria’s terrible away record (they have not won an away qualifier for six years) but they’ve have gone 372 minutes without scoring, including friendlies and may have to grind this one out.

Advice: 1 pt Under 2.5 goals (10/11 Sportingbet)

Czech Republic (1/33) v Liechtenstein (33/1)

Although they had what many would call a “freak strike” early on & defended for nearly all of the game, the Czechs showed marvellous determination to stay ahead of Spain for so long and will be bouncing after that effort. They should dispatch Liechtenstein with ease, who suffered a 2-0 reverse at home in the corresponding fixture two months ago.

Advice: 1 pt Czech Republic -2 (4/9 Victor Chandler)

Israel (3/4) v Georgia (5/1)

Neither side convinces entirely here, given that Israel had to wait until the 81^st minute to get the better of Latvia last weekend and technically speaking, Georgia achieved much more in beating Croatia. This makes the Double Chance market worth looking at, but their record on the road and the class of Yossi Benayoun is enough to put me off.

Advice: 0.75 pts HT Draw (11/10 Bet365) 

International Friendly Betting - 29th March

Ireland (7/4) v Uruguay (9/5)

Ireland don’t have that much quality anyway and have already relived Robbie Keane, Kevin Kilbane, Richard Dunne and Damien Duff for this encounter, with the absence of Kevin Doyle yet another blow. Ireland had poor goalkeeping to thank for their win over Macedonia and although Uruguay were literally caught cold in Estonia on Friday, they have class and skill In abundance and the World Cup Semi – Finalists could easily take this here.

Advice: 2.5 pts Uruguay (13/8 Stan James)

France (10/11) v Croatia (10/3)

France has been steadily rebuilding under Laurent Blanc and looked like a seriously impressive team in wins against England and Brazil. They did little more than they had to against Luexemborg and can use home advantage to see of a Croatia side that suffered an unexpected 1-0 loss to Georgia.

Advice: 1.75 pts France (10/11 Paddy Power)

Germany (2/5) v Australia (15/2)

Germany can rest easy as they’re currently in pole position in Group A and have an eight-point advantage. Mesut Oezil, Sami Khedira and Philipp Lahm have all been excused from the friendly but they should still do a job and Miroslav Klose will still be present.

Advice: 2 pts Miroslav Klose to score at any time (5/6 Boylesports)

Ukraine (7/4) v Italy (7/4)

Italy virtually booked their place in Poland and Ukraine with four games to play by beating Solvenia despite not being overly impressive but the prices are more than fair about them doing the same despite it being a friendly in Ukraine, who have won only one of their last 6.

Advice: 1 pt Italy (2/1 Victor Chandler)

England (8/13) v Ghana (11/2)

England will be without John Terry Ashley Cole, Michael Dawson, Frank Lampard and striker Wayne Rooney and will be given a much harder time of things here by against World Cup quarter-finalists Ghana. Home advantage should count for a lot but England were held by Montenegro and could have their work cut out if Ghana turn up on form.

Advice: 1 pt Ghana-Draw double chance (13/10 Coral) 

Today's Pointer - Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial

It’s been frustrating not to be able to get out some blogs and bitterly ironic that just as soon as I go away, all the decent sporting action dries up, so thank god I’ve got two standouts today.

The highlight of Sunday’s racing is Leopardstown, and thankfully with 2 Group 3’s it’s not so much a case of After The Lord Mayor’s show after the quite incredible Dubai World Cup shows last night. What a ride Mirco Demuro gave Vicotire Pisa and what an amazing one-two for the beleaguered nation. On another note, Cape Blanco ran a storming race and has plenty of exciting times ahead of him this season – He could be another Dylan Thomas or dare I say it even better.

Dunboyne Express winning the Anglesey Stakes last year

The Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial Stakes (3.00) will be seen as a weak trial by some, a point that will be aimed at many of these races over the coming weeks until the Guineas at Newmarket, but today’s 4 contenders are all useful enough to say the least. I’m very surprised to see the evens still generally available about DUNBOYNE EXPRESS, given the impression he created when beating Master Of Hounds and Roderic O’Connor on debut  before slamming Samuel Morse in the Anglesey Stakes last year. He came out with plenty of credit when fifth behind high class prospects in the Racing Post Trophy, and that defeat was all the more honourable given he’d suffered a interrupted preparation.  He could easily take a hand in the Guineas this season and will be well up to taking this.

Exodus took time to come to hand but he was fourth in the Grand Criterium at the back end of last season and may be a pretty useful horse.  The worry is that he wants a lot further than this trip on yielding ground, not to mention the fact that they just won’t go fast enough for him unless Heffernan rides agressively. The highly touted (at least for today) Cocozza looked a very useful performer in the making last year and is highly liked by many, although just how useful he actually can be is very open to debate, although he’s probably group class anyway. Whipless hasn’t built on a decent first pair of efforts and may be a sitting duck in the straight for the other three if leading.

Advice

4 pts win Dunboyne Express (3.00 Leopardstown, evs Ladbrokes)

Dubai World Cup 2011

5:35 Meydan

Dubai World Cup (Group 1) (AWT) (Class 1)  (3YO plus)

Winner $20,866,983

Picks: Cape Blanco (win) & Buena Vista (each/way) 

Fly Down: Best of the rest when third to Blame and Zenyatta in truly epic Breeders’ Cup Classic last year, and high class on dirt on all other starts; Had a rather tough task giving weight all round in Donn Handicap on seasonal reappearance although effort still disappointing and all chance depends on whether he can translate that dirt form to synthetics; Has his chance but others preferred.

Montrerosso: Made truly amazing progression for Mark Johnston, having begun the season with a pair of all-weather victories in January and February, before taking better handicaps and then romping away with King Edward VII Stakes; Unable to continue that progression until winning City of Gold stakes last time; Drop in trip and rise in class may put paid to his chances.

Prince Bishop: Very progressive for Andre Fabre last year, moving from small field conditions races to taking a group race on Arc Day; Made perfectly satisfactory comeback when fifth behind Twice Over and Musir but not good enough yet to be winning this.

Cape Blanco: Built on unbeaten juvenile season with thoroughly progressive campaign as a 3 year old, beating Workforce in Dante and then when second in King George, not to mention Landing the Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes, trashing high class field; Couldn’t handle the soft ground in the Arc but that effort easily forgiven and massive contender; unlikely to fail on score of fitness if sent here, has decent draw, bred to be OK on this surface and tactically versatile.

Gio Ponti: Got second win of relatively disappointing 2010 season (in comparison with penultimate year, when he was second only to Zenyatta in Breeders’ Cup Classic) when cosy winner of Shadwell Turf Mile; Second to Goldikova in Breeders’ Cup Mile was cracking effort and with pace likely to be better here, given solid chance.

Victoire Pisa: Came very close to doing the double in the Japanese 2,000 Guineas and Derby, and has improved majorly again since; Reversed placings with Buena Vista over 1 furlong further (had been nearly two lengths behind subsequently demoted horse in Japan Cup) in Arima Kinen; Made short work of his prep and of interest here, looking as if trip will suit.

Musir: Won all three starts in UAE on Tapeta last year (including UAE 2,000 Guineas and Derby) and has shaped if retaining at least all that ability when second behind Skysurfers and Twice Over on two seasonal runs; First effort forgiven but looked short of answers when behind Twice Over and although he’s capable of taking this, he’s passed over here.

Gitano Hernando: Progressed well in 2009, culminating in Goodwood Stakes win at Sanita Anita: Only run 3 times since, and was disappointing when only sixth in last year’s renewal (considering that he missed BCC to prep for it); Efforts since suggest ability still well there, although he’s been well behind Twice Over the last two times the pair have met.

Transcend: Shown a lot of improvement recently to with wins in Grade 1 company in Japan Cup Dirt and in February Stakes last time, showing good attitude; Will have it very tough to outrun field of this quality on this surface but shouldn’t put it past him given his improvement and quality.

Poet’s Voice: Realised potential last season despite failing to settle in many races, only just edging out Rip Van Winkle in QE11; Didn’t settle, so didn’t stay in Champion Stakes; Showed ability till there when chasing home Wigmore Hall latest; Could take big hand but he’ll have to be world class to beat this lot and worry he might not settle if things slow down.

Richard’s Kid: Triple Grade 1 winner in USA last year when trained by Bob Baffert but seemed tactically awkward compromised by being held up off steady pace and never able to land a blow in this race last year; Disappointing UAE when down the field behind Twice Over last time and while better for that will need a blinding gallop here and has a lot to do to make impact.

Twice Over: Always shown high class level of form but was transformed by 2 confidence boosters 2009 Champion Stakes and then coming third in Breeders Cup Classic; Continued in same vein of form last year, with an unlucky Prince Of Wales’s Second behind Byword being made up for with win in Eclipse: Showed good from when close second behind Rip Van Winkle (International) and Cape Blanco (Irish Champion Stakes) and really quite easy winner of Champion in 2010; Massively impressive on return here when easily getting better of Musir and strong favourite here.

Buena Vista: Incredibly high class in Japan; Five-time Grade 1 winner and only just failed to catch Dar Re Mi when second in Sheema Classic last year (would have won but for 200 yds more); Had Victoire Pisa back in third when passing post in front (subsequently disqualified for causing interference) in Japan Cup so surprising to see placings reversed last time out but given seven lengths to make up in last furlong, while winner had clear advantage; Can reverse placings, and one of world’s best horses so no surprise to see her win, but suspicion is that strong gallop is needed and will need to be at best; Booking of Ryan Moore is major positive.

Golden Sword: Has shown a large amount of improvement for switch to hold up tactics this season, only finding trip too short on seasonal debut before taking handicap/conditions event in fluent fashion; Turned a lot of heads when breaking track record recently but that may have been due to pace and this different test entirely; Not discounted but has to show a lot more than of late.

VERDICT: A high class renewal of the world’s richest contest; A race fully deserving of the title with top class runners from 6 countries all with strong claims. It’s very hard to fault Twice Over’s claims; He should have a better pace to run at this year than last with Prince Bishop, Montersso and Transcend in the line – up and The latter named has genuine prospects but outrunning a field of this quality on Tapeta may well be near impossible. The best horse in the race may well be CAPE BLANCO and if he’s sent here then presumably fitness won’t be a problem if he’s been sent for this event. He's got the ability to win this if fit and the stronger the go, the better for him. The consistency and class of BUENA VISTA gives her massive each/way appeal at the prices. She’s the best horse in Japan by a mile and with a strong pace, she won’t be far away. 

Cricket World Cup - India v Australia

As far as the match outcome is cornered I’ll just sit and support my outright tournament bet on India. Playing Australia this soon will be a put off for many but from the outset India’s only strength was batting, and their results rested on whether they could use that strength enough to win.

Australia's progress in this World Cup was smooth at first - a comfortable win against Zimbabwe, a smashing one against New Zealand - and then uninspiring, when they laboured against Kenya and Canada. The loss to Pakistan shows that they’re not unbeatable in any way, but a worry for India is that they’ve got nowhere near the bowling that Australia boast.

Some parts of India’s performances have made them look like proper tournament favourites. Fantastic displays by Tendulkar and Sehwag have led to some wonderful shot taking, but India have the much maligned Zaheer Khan and Yuvraj Singh, whose wickets have prevented many embarrassments.

Shane Watson - Could be set for a good start

That said, the majority of their form hasn’t been good enough to win a world cup. Poor bowling on flat pitches let England back into the fold, while many collapses have turned sure games into thrillers and losses.

The match is essentially a coin toss. On one side you have India, who possess such devastating batting, and have the formidable home advantage. And then Australia, the pedigree side with the all-round strength to hurt any team and the killer fast bowlers backed up by experience. No side is perfect although there’d be no point in backing Australia having suggested India for the Tournament, and although I’d rather be with India, prices of 8/11 are too short and their collapses are too frequent; Against South Africa, India lost their last nine wickets for 29 runs; against England they lost their last seven for 33 and against West Indies the last seven went for 50.

If there’s one bet, it may be Australia to have the highest opening partnership. Brad Haddin and Shane Watson are two of the best ODI Batsmen around; And to add to that, their opening stands in this tournament have been (most recent first) have been 12, 183, 38, 133 and 61. India may have the best openers in the tournament but they were stopped at 9-1 and 8-1 by Ireland and the West Indies respectively; Good bowling like Australia’s can hurt them.

Advice

2 pts Australia to have highest opening partnership (11/10 Boylesports)  

Cricket World Cup - Pakistan v West Indies

There are many imponderables in tomorrow’s first quarter final in the Cricket World Cup. Pakistan have shown the talent that so many knew they had by winning four of their five games, including a first defeat of Australia in a Cricket World Cup match in 34 games. However like all in this tournament, they’ve shown their vulnerability at least once, when collapsing against New Zeland after an awful bowling effort in the last 5 overs.

West Indies have shown flashes of talent, a destruction of Bangladesh speaking volumes at the time, although they have been beaten by all three other qualifiers from Group B, throwing away winning positions against England and India.  The suspicion is that they’ll do the same here, but neither team can be totally trusted or discounted and Pakistan don’t appeal at 8/15, so take the 6/1 about MISBAH – UL – HAQ being top Pakistan batsman.

The Pakistani top order are much more closely packed tougher than the betting suggests and the prices suggest that he’s lost his form completely. However it’s hard to remember the impression that he made when posting scores of 65 and 83. It seems like he’s struggled to handle better bowling but on a tight pitch it may not take an awful lot for him to take the top bat honours and he represents a bit of value.

Advice

1 pt Misbah – Ul – Haq to be top Pakistan Batsman (6/1 Totesport) 

Today's Pointers - Curragh 19th March

Only a few days on from a great Cheltenham Festival, we move swiftly onto the first day of the Irish Flat season at the Curragh.

In the first race of the season (2.35) and the first for juveniles, It might be notable that Richard Fahey, so good with these early season contests, sends over Lost City (bred to be well forward and related to a host of previous winners) but Whipper has made a good start with his first few crops and his WHIP RULE could take all the beating for Jim Bolger and Kevin Manning.

In the next maiden (3.05) Rose Bonheur was touched off by a short-head twice in similar contests here last year over 6f and 7f but ANDGERIGO may well have won had he not dwelt at the start when second behind Ruling and if straight should go close here. The winner was not disgraced behind Derby fancy Dubai Prince next time out.

There’s not too much of an appealing shape to the sprint handicap (3.35).Top weight Luisant had a great time of it last season but he’s running from a 5lbs higher mark than when beaten on his last handicap start. If there’s an angle it may be by backing Tommy Stack early on in the season with BLUE DAHLAIA off bottom weight. He found a well backed favourite just too much on his last start and has a 10lbs claimer to help, which could make all the difference.

Termagant (maroon, second right) won both starts at two and
shaped as if retaining that ability in the Irish 1,000 Guineas

In the best race of the day by far, the Lodge Park Stud European Breeders Fund Park Express Stakes, (4.05) much will depend on how straight the horses are. This makes Lolly For Dolly a powerful contender considering the form she has (still not exposed as well) but giving 3lbs to TERMAGANT may prove beyond her. That makes her 3lbs better off for a quarter length beating and there are reason to believe that Termagant’s the better horse. She had beaten group 3 winner Cabaret before winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes from Lille Langtry and was having her seasonal debut when ninth in the Guineas. If she’s fit today she’s got every chance.

Only one makes any appeal in the Irish Lincoln (4.35) . PHOTO OPPORTUNITY didn’t get a good passage at all when fourth in a big handicap on his last start and has been very well treated in a bid to make amends here. The form of that race has been boosted by Hujalyea’s good runs in Dubai and he can take the beating.

The Gabriel Curran Memorial Madrid Handicap (5.05) is one of the hardest to solve on the card but there’s one horse who could be much better than a handicapper and that’s ADILAPOUR. As short as 40/1 for the Derby, he made a very taking debut when beating Pirate Chest (who’s not been out of the frame since) and subsequent listed winner Tiz The Shot. Under Johnny Murtagh a big run should be coming here.

Advice

1 pt win Whip Rule in 2.35 Curragh

1 pt win Anderigo in 3.05 Curragh

0.5 pt each/way Blue Dahlia in 3.35 Curragh

1.5 pts win Termagant in 4.05 Curragh

0.75 pt win Photo Opportunity in 4.35 Curragh

0.5 pt win Adailpour in 5.05 Curragh 

Chelsea v Manchester City - Preview

Torres - Has come close to breaking his duck

This game has gained more and more significance in recent seasons, as Manchester City’s power has increased with every season. This year the two clubs go into the battle third and fourth respectively, both trying to salvage their seasons to a point.

Chelsea have made a very good first of things since going out of the FA Cup on penalties to Everton. They were gritty but very classy and determined against Manchester United when coming from behind (having been largely outplayed) to win 2-1 with a late Lampard penalty.

Since then a 3-1 win at Blackpool (which they were made to work very hard for before a Lampard double sealed the win) was followed up by a rather mundane 0-0 coast against Copenhagen, although being 2-0 from the first leg, the situation allowed that they do so.

Yuri Zhirkov shot wide and Nicolas Anelka had an effort saved as Chelsea failed to add to a 2-0 first-leg lead, while new signing Fernando Torres came ever closer to breaking his duck for the blues.  For all that there were some who were unimpressed at the fact it ended goalless, it was the type of performance which gives notice they are almost back to the kind of form which helped them to a domestic double of league and FA Cup last season, and more importantly, a gradual progression and yet another result that keeps them in the hunt for major prizes.

Regarding team news, Carlo Ancelotti rested many of his first team players in midweek, with the likes of Michael Essien, Florent Malouda, and Fernando Torres left on the subs bench. All three are likely to come right back into the lineup for the match. Drogba will most likely give way to allow this, along with Zhirkov and Mikel.

Manchester City, much like Chelsea, are still very much in the mix for two major competitions, taking into account the fact that they’re unlikely to win the Premiership and have to overcome rivals Manchester United in the FA Cup Semi – Finals.

Balotelli - Likely to be absent thanks a massive moment
of stupidity

Despite winning four of their last 6, Manchester City have generally been poor, close to abysmal in terms of performance. A disappointing win against Fulham was seemingly rectified when putting three past Aston Villa, but a remarkably sour display against Wigan was only a win thanks to David Silva's tame shot being palmed through his own legs by Wigan keeper Ali Al Habsi.

Antolin Alcaraz volleyed against the crossbar for Wigan and James McCarthy forced a fine save from Joe Hart while substitute Connor Sammon fired wide in injury time when one-on-one with Hart, in a game that City clearly should have lost.

And that was only before they were handed a long and severe lesson on how to play two-legged European football by the excellent Dymano Kiev, who pulled into a 2 goal lead and were never in real trouble at Eastlands despite a 1-0 defeat.

Manchester City have much enjoyed recent trips to London, unbeaten in their last eight fixtures in the capital with a total of 16 points gained but they’ve not won away in the league since Newcastle and have blanked in 2 of those 4 games, not to mention losing to Kiev 2-0.

Mario Batoelli’s almost magical moment of stupidity in midweek may leave City shorn of one of their best strikers if Roberto Mancini chooses to ignore the loophole at his disposal, but Nigel De Jong’s present in midfield will sure things up and the arrival of James Milner will be relief for the boys from Eastlands. The key to their threat though, lies with whether Adam Johnson can make the squad.

In a key match up, Chelsea can keep their title hopes alive by putting away Manchester City, who have been woefully abject recently and struggle to score in big games, and on the road. Chelsea’a own forwards haven’t been firing too much of late but this could be a very tight game and they can look to anywhere for goals on the pitch, notably Frank Lampard who has five goals in his most recent seven appearances.

Advice

3 pts Chelsea to beat Manchester City (8/11 Paddy Power)

6 Nations - Last Day

6 Nations (All games on BBC)

Scotland (1/3) v Italy (15/4) (2.30)

Scotland have the edge with home advantage and played much more like the team that we saw in the Autumn Internationals against Ireland and England but they don’t deserve to be as short as 1/3 here. Italy played their best ever game in this 6 Nations against France when winning and may be able to make a real game of it despite having won only one on the road in their last 18 Test matches.

Advice: 0.75 pts Italy +8, (10/11 Totesport)

Ireland (13/8) v England (8/13) (5.00)

We need Ireland to win in all honesty to stop our no Grand Slam bet and there’s every chance they can stop England but they’ve proven that they can’t be trusted with some awful errors and although they were unlucky in Cardiff last weekend, they threw away a chance to win late on, as against France. England are in for a tight game but we’ll let our original bet ride.

Advice: 1 pt England Penalty 1^st Scoring Play, (13/8 Sportingbet)

France (1/3) v Wales (7/2) (7.45)

France will enjoy being back in Paris but cannot be backed at 1/3 following on from a horror show in Rome, even if Wales were lucky to win against Ireland. In what’s likely to be a close game Wales can be fairly confidently backed to stay within an +10 point margin.

Advice: 1.75 pts Wales +10 (evs Victor Chandler) 

Premiership Saturday - 19th March

Well what a week. Hope you cottoned on to some of the better tips and also managed to follow the twitter advice for all the races I couldn't preview. Only a few tidbits today because I've manged to dislocate a knee so it's hard to use the PC for long periods.

Premier League

Manchester United (4/9) v Bolton (17/2)

Manchester United’s season is really begging to spring into life now with their FA Cup and Champions League places booked. However they were made to work for their win on Wednesday and may have a tougher task than expected against a Bolton side who’ve just progressed into the Semis of the FA Cup and have nothing to lose.

Advice: 1.5 pts Bolton +1.75 on Asian H’cap, (19/20 Victor Chandler)

Blackburn (5/6) v Blackpool (4/1)

There’s very little in reality between these two sides and there’s no question who comes out with more credit for their last defeat. Blackpool really missed influential midfielder Charlie Adam against Chelsea and can make Blackburn work all the way here.

Advice: 1 pt Over 2.5 goals, (8/15 Paddy Power) 

Cheltenham Festival - Gold Cup

Cheltenham Festival (Day 4, Race 4)

Cheltenham Gold Cup (3.20)

Picks: Imperical Commander (win) and Pandorama (each/way)

Carruthers: Impressed with his easy front running victories as a novice, running creditably in RSA Chase when bad mistake put paid to his chances 3 out; Went on from that last season, coming fourth in this last year and second in Totesport Bowl; Has run well again this year but needs ground to come right and exposed.

China Rock: Reached a high level over fences last season and has improved this year too, winning a couple of very smart Grade 2 chases before running third to Kauto Star two starts ago; This too hard.

Denman: Outstanding Gold Cup winner of 2008 who had heart trouble which has kept him to slightly below par performances since then; Put in one of the outstanding performances of modern times to win this last year off a mark of 174, producing outstanding jumping & front running display; Didn’t reach same form last season despite being good second in this very race; Showed it still remains when 15l third giving almost two stone to two progressive young chasers in 2010 Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury; Tubed since, primed for the moment and cannot be ingored.

Imperial Commander: Marked himself as the new star of staying chasers when romping away with last year’s renewal, beating Denman by 7 lengths and advantage only increasing with distance; Only run once this season but best fresh and the one horse with the least flaws in credentials.

Kauto Star: Confirmed himself as one of outstanding chasers of modern time when trashing 2009 Gold Cup field by 13 lengths, becoming only horse to regain Cheltenham Gold Cup in process and looked set for the three timer after a demolition job in King George(one of highest rated performances ever) only to fall in last year’s contest, an earlier mistake having taken its toll; Came back seemingly as good as ever when beating Sizing Europe at Down Royal but well beaten behind Long Run; Walsh back on board will help and wasn’t at peak thanks to blood infection that day but still hard to trust, despite all the talent.

Kempes: Very good hurdler who won a Grade 2 over fences and was in front of some useful types when second in the Champion Novice over 2m at Punchestown; Has taken the time to get the hang on things over fences but did it good style in a Grade 2 and landed biggest success when comprehensively beating stablemate at Punchestown Festival; Has run two excellent races this season, the first when making the frame over a trip a mile short of his best and the second being unseated when just about to get into the Lexus Chase last month; Made amends when winning Irish Hennessy at Leopardstown last time and one of livelier outsiders.

Long Run: Came here with plenty of experience from France, and high quality experience at that as winner of three of his four starts over fences (impressive success in the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Gillois); Hacked up by 13 lengths from next time out winner Tazbar in Feltham Chase,  and did same again when easy winner of Kingmaker Novices’ Chase; Made significant jumping errors on both wins and unable to get away with them when fading late on in RSA; Was widely expected to win Paddy Power Gold Cup off mark of 158 but a sloppy round of jumping led to a lacklustre third place but fulfilled promise when delivering devastating performance in the  King George Chase, coming home clear of Kauto Star and Riverside Theatre; Easily the best of the young brigade here.

Midnight Chase: Has improved 36lb on official ratings in last 12 months, winning six of his last seven outings with his record here reading 231111; May still be improving, and not discounted but opposition he’s faced to date bears little comparison to his main rivals here.

Neptune Collonges: Has been rather underrated in presence of Denman and Kauto Star, having come third in Gold Cup behind Denman and excellent second behind Kauto 2 years ago before injury struck; Was brought down in Hennessy and could never recover from being hampered in handicap, but showed he trains ability at least when winning Argento Chase, front running them all into the ground.

Pandorama: Winner of 9 from 11 starts over rules, the only defeat (when completed) coming to Ballymore properties winner Mikael D’Haugenet over hurdles; Unbeaten in three last season as a novice chaser, simply running away with the Drinmore Novice Chase; Made much harder work of landing the Knight Frank Novice Chase but jumped well in main and did very well to get up and beat RSA Chase winner Weapon’s Amnesty after mistake at last; Had a luckless run in the Hennessey, getting all but brought down at the second and being left so far behind that he was pulled up at the eighth; Put that right with storming romp home in Lexus and every chance here in open race; If he handles ground, much better than odds suggest.

Tidal Bay: Never really went on after hugely promising novice season but showed good promise over hurdles, winning the Cleeve; Failed to build on that with a lacklustre seventh at Cheltenham but right back to form when coming less than two lengths second to Imperial Commander in the Betfair Chase; Same story of running style again when second to Neptune Collonges in Argento but will be able to pick up a lot of beaten horses late on and that makes him a contender; Keener he is the better.

Weird Al: Unbeaten over fences, having marked himself down a major RSA Chase candidate before injury with 2 impressive wins at Cheltenham before winning Towton Novice’s Chase; Came back from injury to dead heat with Little Josh in excellent run considering that he was running over a trip too short (2m4f) and was giving 6lbs to the Paddy Power Gold Cup winner Little Josh;Better than Hennessy run shows although he's still got some way to go.

What A Friend: Impressive in his novice season, winning 3 out of 4 starts (not ready for the RSA at Cheltenham); Took giant steps forward on only 3 starts last season, starting with second to stablemate Denman in the Hennessy before landing Grade 1’s at Leopardstown and Aintree (where a below-form Imperial Commander unseated); Disappointing on comeback in Betfair Chase when holding head high but reported breathing problem; Attitude cost hime Grade 2 at Newbury last time and while he wants this ground and pace, won’t be up to winning.

VERDICT: The event we’ve been waiting for where the old hands face off against the young upstarts. From a strictly annalistic point of view the horse with the least flaws is IMPERIAL COMMANDER and I’d want to have him onside. The only negative regarding his chances is the fact he’s not run this year, although he’s had plenty of work recently. Past champions Kauto Star and Denman are given respect (Denman is preferred of the two) although there are reasons to oppose both and at the prices they could just be too short. If there’s a young horse ready to win, it’s most likely to be Long Run. Jumping issues are a thing of the past with him and the only concerns that still remain are those of course form (appeared not to stay three miles when third in the RSA) and his tender age (no 6 – yr old has won since 1963, although how many have tried is another thing and how many as good as him is debateable). One horse that I couldn’t leave alone at the prices was PANDORAMA, who’s won 9 from 11 and would be half the price if he’d won on good ground before. Of the rest, I couldn’t have Midnight Chase although he’d have to be given a chance and Kempes is as good a choice as any. Don’t forget any also rans although Tidal Bay is interesting based on his running style, although it's likely he'll be too far behind to win as he showed behind Neptune Collonges last time. 

Cheltenham Festival - JCB Triumph

Cheltenham Festival (Day 4, Race 1)

JCB Triumph Hurdle (1.30)

Picks: Zarkandar and Sam Winner (each/way)

Aikiedeau: Interesting French recruit for the Stewart family and the Rowe’s and while he made a good debut at Pau he was well beaten on first and only British start and ignored here.

Architrave: Won first three on the bounce and so impressive he was sent off just 5/1 for Grade 2 event here in November; Well beaten then and lack of run since means others are preferred.

Brampour: Listed placed on flat in France and one of most anticipated recruits all season; Shaped with promise on debut at Kempton although would have been beaten by A Media Luz had she stayed up; Improved on that when coming home clear in good maiden hurdle at Taunton, looking as if he had Trop Fort beaten when left clear at last; Strongly run race the key to him although plenty more needed.

First Fandango: Unbeaten in two juvenile races, and both useful contests at Ffos Las and Ayr respectably; Can expect a good showing here although his form has been let down and he’s now got something to prove.

Grandouet: Taken time to get used to UK racing but progressing fast now; Gave stablemate A Media Luz 17lb and an easy beating at Newbury in December, and impressed many when making short work of modest opposition at Ascot last time; Seems very solid and yard’s record in this race means he’s got to be given a big chance although position at heed of market largely down to fact he’s won twice impressively in easy contests.

Houblon Des Obeaux: Had looked exposed based on French efforts but was a fine second in Final Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow, arguably best juvenile hurdle run this season; Managed to just get better of Third Intention thanks to fact that runner up pulling too hard and soft ground; Many will expect form to be reversed on better ground but this horse is 3lbs better off and improving.

Kulisriver: Desperately disappointing when trashed into second considering strength of contest he finished runner up in on debut, an effort for which he should have improved.

Local Hero: Has done everything asked of him in great style on both starts, dotting up at Catterick before giving weight and a beating to Franklino at Doncaster (easily); Gained biggest success yet when gamely beating Third Intention to win Grade 2 on trials day here despite sloppy jumping but that stopped him when well beaten fourth at Chepstow when jumping out the right; Ground will suit better but too many questions to answer.

Mister Carter: Smart on flat, and did well to win in such impressive style on debut so disappointing when well beaten in Grade 3 and unlikely to be good enough to make impact in this.

Moltof: Showed useful form when runner – up on both starts in French juvenile hurdles; Made pleasing debut when second to Zarkandar at Kempton but unlikely to reverse form with reopposing conqueror here.

New Den: Outclassed on his one and only run, a poor seventh.

Sailors Warn: Improved on first two runs by massive amount when winning a Grade 2 event ran over C&D with plenty to spare after the last; Well beaten behind Unaccompanied last time and has a lot of ground to make up to be winning a Triumph.

Sam Winner: Had shown useful form when coming second on all three French starts and duly built on that when romping home in JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial by unextended 15 lengths here, smashing Grandouet with ease; Not reached that form since (not pushed in too hard to double up here following month); Well beaten fourth in Finale Juvenile Hurdle over Christmas but slow pace and soft ground wouldn’t have helped; Been given break since (that run also came very soon after December meeting) and promises to improve for this test.

Sir Pitt: Holds little chance of winning here.

Smad Place: Came to top stable having been runner-up on second of starts over hurdles in French Provinces; Made a hugely impressive debut when slamming Doulatulo by 27 lengths at Newbury and another who wanted more pace in race when third in Finale Juvenile Hurdle; Beaten elders in warm up since and can go close here.

Third Intention: Showed impressive attitude for a debutant when landing a good juvenile hurdle at Newbury, beating a subsequent second and winner; Built on that in defeat at Cheltenham, pulling hard early on and only just getting caught by Local Hero; Same story again when getting caught by Houblon Des Oebaux; Finally has it all dropping right for him although he needs to up his game again to get involved.

Tilahow: Taking a step forward with every run over hurdles, winning Grade 3 event two starts ago; Well beaten when seventh last time behind Unaccompanied.

Trop Fort: Very well-liked by yard and expected to make winning debut at Taunton, having won twice at AQPS level  in France; Wasn’t beaten but looked to be second best to Brampour when taking heavy fall and while he’s probably quite talented this is different ball game and awful lot to prove.

Walter De La Mare: No real chance here.

Zarkandar: Half-brother to unbeaten Arc winner Zarkava; Showed plenty of talent when finishing first, second and third on only three flat starts in France but made immensely promising debut when jumping well and coming right away with Moltof; Well beaten  third Kumbeshwar was since second off to weight in the Fred Winter so form enhanced and will go well here.

A Media Luz: Very smart filly on the flat in France, winning her first 2 starts before runner up in a Group 3 at Saint Cloud and excellent sixth in the Prix Vermille; Taken time to get used to jumping, pulling her race away on first two runs before coming down when set to win at Kempton but put that right when bolting up from useful yardstick Panxatoa at Huntingdon last time and entitled to a lot of respect.

High Ransom: Maiden on the Flat for Michael Jarvis; Only just touched off on her hurdling debut but shaped like a stayer when finding a race last time and needs more here.

Unaccompanied: Made most taking debut when romping home by 9 lengths on debut, showing serious speed when dismissing her field; Proved merit of that win with clear cut and taking success in Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time, travelling like class act before winning with authority; Will be fine on good ground (won on good to firm on flat) and major player here even if more is needed.

VERDICT: A fiercely competitive renewal. Nicky Henderson holds yet another strong hand and in Grandouet he has a worthy contender, although he’s favourite on how he’s won his last two starts and represents more of a reliable/experienced option here. ZARKANDAR posted a potentially immense effort when beating Moltof with something to spare in the Adonis hurdle (a race with a very strong recent history) and also thrashing the Fred Winter runner up Kumbeshwar to underline the form. Another Nicholls inmate, SAM WINNER, can also go close and confirm the form with market leader Grandouet from their November meeting with a fast pace and good ground. Of the others, Unaccompanied makes a lot of appeal, with good ground not being a forecast problem, and she’s just taken over the other filly A Media Luz, although these are very much her conditions. The same could be said of Third Intention although his pulling is a worry now and it remains to be seen how good he actually is. Of the others, Smad Place will go well and Houblon Des Obeaux might be a tad overpriced. 

Cheltenham Festival - Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Cheltenham Festival (Day 4, Race 3)

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (2.40)

Picks: Bobs Worth (win) & Mossley (each/way)

Ackertac: Had plenty in hand when winning 2 novice hurdles and might have found the extra furlong a bit too far on his first handicap hurdle here; Was going well when coming down 3 out next time and doesn’t look up to the grade here.

Allee Garde: Most impressive when making a facile debut at Down Royal; Form of that race has fallen to pieces, although respected just for fact he’s been sent here speaks volumes.

Bobs Worth: Taken a big step forward with every single run under rules, and bettered form and probably performance of his nine length debut win when coming home with relative ease over course and distance and put in one of most impressive performances of season for novice ranks when a clear cut winner of course and distance trial despite being forced wide two out; That form made to look rock – solid when runner up nearly won Neptune on Wednesday and standout here; Step up in trip not expected to be major problem.

Champion Court: Only had two runs for current yard but has already taken a Grade 2 hurdle here, some achievement considering it was his only his hurdles debut; Form of that race may not have been set alight (although the second ran a cracker behind a classy sort at Kempton); Disappointed last time but had foot injury and stable  under cloud; Still rates potentially top class but will need to be so to win this.

Court In Motion: Always been highly regarded by his connections and has started building on all that promise and more with win at Exeter and second in Challow Hurdle, but that nowhere near as impressive as his 21 length destruction job in Warwick Grade 2; Ran below best when well beaten second in heavy ground 3m Grade 2 at Haydock but better ground should put him right and seen as one of major contenders here.

Fiulin: Not matched form of his Supreme seventh last year in 4 starts since and very hard to recommend here, although trip may suit.

Fully Funded: Improved massively from hurdling debut when eased down to beat Couleur De La Loi by 5½ lengths in a Wexford maiden hurdle and did the same again when leading all the way for a comfortable win in the Monksfield Hurdle here last time, using easy lead to his advantage and digging deep to beat off what looked like decent field at the time; Has since disappointed when stepped up in class and has a lot to do to be involved here.

Gagewell Flyer: Has been excellent on all starts this season, winning with ease at Navan before coming home clear in the Slaney Novice Hurdle and showing guts and slick jumping to win 2m Grade 2 event; Needs to show he handles better ground but still boasts solid form and has to be given a big chance here.

Jetnova: Has gotten better with experience, landing 2 novice hurdles at Plumpton (second one very good race for the track) and showed he was better than his sixth to Court In Motion when landing decent event last time but passed over in better company.

Join Together: Let down by lack of experience when third to Court In Motion on hurdling bow at Exeter and bettered that form in defeat when second to Mossley in Grade 2 here ;Bolted up in maiden hurdle last time (20 lengths clear of subsequent winner) and likely to be on premises.

Kilcrea Kim: Created deep impression when doubling up in novice hurdles and then winning his first handicap; Ran a great race here on New Year’s day but seemed not to stay extended trip and same worry again despite impressive win inbetween.

Moonlight Drive: Made a very promising hurdling debut when getting better of Trustan Times with lot to spare at Wetherby on only rules starts but that form dubious in this context and passed over.

Mossley: Hasn’t come off bridle to land Worcester bumper and 2m4f novice hurdle at Huntingdon, and it looked set to be the same stroy until he showed impressive attitude when taking 3m Grade 2 novice here from subsequent winners Join Together and Highland Valley; Disappointed behind Court In Motion but ground proved his undoing that day and much better prospects here.

No Secrets: Was deeply impressive on second hurdling start when hacking up from Yabora with ease and although not disgraced when easily beaten by useful Poungnatch last time, has too much to be doing here.

Our Island: Two from two under rules, having ground it out at Ffos Las before making a better fist of things style wise at Newbury; Should go on ground, but better options here.

Radestky March: Showed plenty of guts to edge small race at Warwick; This asks too much of him on the book.

Rif: Looked smart when landing 3m novice hurdle at Towcester in October; Well beaten by both Mossley and Join Together last time and too much to do here.

Start Me Up: Has got course form (was a Bumper winner here on good to firm in 2009); Ran no sort of race last time and hard to recommend strongly.

Sybarite: Made nearly prefect start to hurdling when second in 2m5f Grade 2 at the Open Meeting, coming second behind Champion Court; Only had the one run since but not disgraced when unable to stay with classy sort Chablis at Kempton; Lightly raced so can improve still and more going for him than quite a few.

Teaforthree: Quite impressive when winning at Ffos last and ran game race to finish in the frame when third behind Mossley; Not to be discounted off the back of that but disappoint that he was beaten so far latest and others preferred.

VERDICT: An excellent renewal compared with some previous years. The way BOBS WORTH saw out his race on Trials Day here suggests that he’ll stay three miles and he’s a confident selection. The runner up in his race all but won the Neptune earlier on in the week and that’s easily the best form here. There are many good contenders, and the one that may give the favourite most to think about is MOSSLEY, who boasts the best course and distance form courtesy of his Grade 2 win and is a stupid price because of his run behind fellow contender Court In Motion, when the ground was just too soft. The latter named horse also has a solid chance, and while many like the chances of Join Together, he is going to be 4lbs worse off with Mossley this time round. Champion Court is still a top prospect and while he should beat Sybarite again he has it all to prove now. Kilcrea Kim might not stay this fully based on his January run.

Cheltenham Festival - Kim Muir Chase

The Fluke Walwyn Kim Muir is immensely competitive this year and 11lbs separates the whole field. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing as talent will come to the fore and we can look to the best horses and riders to be there at the finish.

I’ve been very sweet on JUNIOR for the William Hill Chase for a long time (backed ante – post) so it was disappointing not to see him run here but he should make a really bold bid here off 11-6. He won at Royal Ascot on his first run for this yard and hasn’t looked back since, his best effort being a very solid 9 lengths third to Midnight Chase, who’s won since and is now fancied for the Gold Cup, before being sent on too soon in a head to head battle with Chartreux in a good handicap hurdle on New Year’s Day. The price is a little short but I like him so much that I’ll stick with him.

Faasel, who came with a wet sail to give Ballabriggs a late fright last year, has to be respected on that performance, but I can’t trust him and he’s reliant on everything falling for him., although Ryna Mahon is a cracking booking. Saddlers Storm is going to be very popular thanks to Derek O’Connor being on board but he’s got plenty to prove.

Galant Nuit has been laid out just for this again and he’ll go close off a 1lbs higher mark. The horse has reportedly pleased connections in his build-up which included a recent racecourse gallop at Doncaster and he should go well.

I’m surprised there’s not been more support for Pomme Tiepy, considering she comes from a stable that’s had two winners at this meeting and a rider that knows the course very well. She’s big at 14’s.

However there’s one horse that I can’t get away from, and that’s MOSTLY BOB. He’s a progressive novice who slammed the opposition in very attractive style at Doncaster two starts ago before falling early on in the Racing Post Chase. He’s 11lbs higher now but still has more to give and is 16/1, which is a fair price considering that many experts and journalists were tipping him up with confidence for the Racing Post Chase. 

Advice 

2 pts win Junior in Kim Muir Chase (4.40 Cheltenham) (5/1 Paddy Power) 

1 pt each/way Mostly Bob in Kim Muir Chase (4.40 Cheltenham) (16/1 Boylesports) 

Cheltenham Festival - World Hurdle

Cheltenham Festival (Day 3, Race 4)

Ladbrokes World Hurdle (3.20)

Picks: Big Bucks (win) & Zaynar (each/way)

Any Given Day: Took well to hurdling last term and made full use of race fitness when runaway winner of Silver Trophy at Chepstow; Good fourth in Greatwood and excelled himself when second in the Reelkeel and when behind Oscar Whiskey (gave weight); Well beaten on heavy ground last time, and has too much on plate in all likeliness.

Ashkazar: Improved massively for first run at three miles when taking very good handicap here on New Year’s Day from well off pace; Still potential for improvement but inconsistency a big problem and this massive step up.

Berties Dream: Last year’s winner of the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle but not hit same form since, getting well beaten in the World Series Hurdle before failing to fire over fences; Well beaten on nearly all starts since and hard to fancy here.  

Big Buck’s: Unbeaten on all ten starts since switching back to hurdles, having won this race twice and taken just about every single major staying hurdle inbetween; Made easy work of beating inferior rivals in the Long Walk Hurdle last time and the one to beat in his quest to land a hat – trick here.

Celestial Halo: High class hurdler (second and fourth in Champion Hurdles) who was the top rated chasing recruit this season until a fall and lacklustre third ruined things on that front; Ran a perfectly satisfactory race in the Reelkeel Hurdle and again behind Oscar Whisky; Continued revival when pushing Mille Chief to a head in the Kingwell Hurdle (should have won) and bolted up in National Spirit Hurdle last time out; As good an outsider as any.

Cross Kennon: Has been in great form this season, winning well at Cheltenham before travelling very nicely when being brought down next time; Ran a cracker behind Mr Moonshine in the Pertemps Qualifier and stole the Rendlesham from the front last time; Needs more than that on better ground to get involved.

Fiveforthree: Won the Neptune at the 2008 Cheltenham Festival and career best on only run at this distance when slamming opposition with ease to win World Series Hurdle by seven lengths; Only one run since but showed his class, versatility and speed when landing conditions hurdle over 2m with ease; Bounce factor to worry about but all class.

Grands Crus: Has improved hand over first for the step up in trip this season, bolting up in two good handicaps, the first here and the second at Haydock; Put in one of most impressive performances of season when routing the Cleeve Hurdle field, scooting 15 lengths clear between last two flights without rider having to ask any serious questions that day; This step up in class but easily main contender to Big Bucks.

Mourad: Ever consistent and never out of the first 4 last season running might race when winning Grade 3 by 13 lengths before running third in the World Series Hurdle; Beginning to grow up this season, having hacked home in Grade 2’s at Leopardstown and Gowran; This big step up but no doubting that he has the class to make a bold bid.

Powerstation: Classy and consistent staying hurdler who had golden moment last year when winning Grade 2 in 2009 and was third in last year’s renewal afterwards; Hasn’t been in same form since and maybe age finally catching up with him.

Restless Harry: Became one of most likeable horses in training last season, dotting up in smart Cheltenham Novice Hurdle before running titanic race in Albert Bartlett (dotted up last time seen last year); Ran a very pleasing race considering that he was left 10 lengths behind at the start (beaten only 11 & ½ lengths in the end) in Silver Trophy; Was a well beaten third behind Big Bucks and maybe crucially, even more well beaten behind Grands Crus; Will be staying on hard when others have cried enough.

Rigor Back Bob: Was very progressive over hurdles last term, winning 5 times including 3m Grade 3 at Punchestown in April; Looked set for much of the same this season after easy win on reappearance but had run miles below form before winning the Tara Hurdle and outclasses here anyway.

Souffleur: Not been seen since finishing a close but flattering second to Big Bucks at Aintree, and that a major negative even allowing for the fact that he faces a miles bigger task.

Zaynar: Unbeaten in three starts as a juvenile (one here, won Triumph) and came into Champion Hurdle picture with impressive win in this race last year; Won Reelkeel doing handstands and performed with credit when third in Champion and Aintree Hurdles, looking like 3 miles would be ideal distance; Never going yard in Ascot Hurdle but travelled ominously well in Reelkeel Hurdle before emptying; Had win operation since and has a lot of talent here, certainly enough to figure prominently.

VERDICT: A classy renewal with a big match up for all to feast their eyes on and plenty of useful rivals to be in the shake -  up. This is one of the toughest tests that BIG BUCKS has ever faced over hurdles but he’s passed every single one with flying colours and can beat Grands Crus off to take this prize just like he beat Punchestowns two years ago. ZAYNAR has always had enough talent to mix it with the best hurdlers and is as good as any if brining his A – Game here over three miles and is well worth backing for a place. There are many plausible winners but the biggest threat is Mourad from where I’m standing, although Fiveforthree could be just as good. Celestial Halo is also given a chance.

Cheltenham Festival - Ryanair Chase

Cheltenham Festival (Day 3, Race 3)

Ryanair Chase (2.40)

Pick: Albertas Run (win & each/way)

Albertas Run: Twice a festival winner, having won the RSA Chase here in 08’ and last year’s renewal in 2010; Came back with well beaten fourth in Old Roan but already ran much better when falling 2 out (his pursuit of Masterminded proving futile) in Amlin 1965 Chase; Dreadful run in King George Chase but was beaten 69 lengths before winning this last year and has to be a major player.

Breedzbrezze: Very high class novice over fences a couple of seasons ago, winning Grade 2 at Wincanton and Feltham with ease; Subsequently injured and not gone on from very good return with two really poor efforts; Not up to this.

Gauvain: Went off the boil after winning a Grade 2 Novice Chase 2 years ago, falling to make an impact at Cheltenham and Aintree festival; Won his next 2 starts before being put on side-lines; Showed he retinas all old ability and more when beating Forpadydeplasterer and Tataniano with ease at Open Meeting although he ran well below that form when fifth in the Tingle Creek; Back to from when second to Riverside Theatre and will need  more to be getting close here.

Hey Big Spender: Was really going places last year and romped to wins at Newbury (over Fistral Beach) and here on Trials Day; Didn’t quite go on from that after unseating in the Jewson (Fell behind Mad Max at Aintree), so really good effort to win at Carlisle on his return; Was going well for a long way before tiring in the Hennessy (the fastest run major race of the season so far) and back to form when winning at Warwick; Very good when he’s right but this hard even for him at his best.

Kalahari King: Made fine return last season when winning valuable 2m handicap chase at Doncaster, so disappointing that he was easily beaten first time out this season(not given hard race); Well beaten in Tingle Creek and Jumpers Bumper to start but attracted major interest when staying on from miles back to come very respectable fourth in the Victor Chandler Chase; Will be at peak form although this no easy task in hard race and still something to prove in some respects.

Poquelin: Was a beaten favourite here in this last year after a decisive win in December Gold Cup; Produced near career best when repeating that success in stronger renewal off 161 this year, and has to be given big chance again although he’s not invincible (well beaten into second last year).

Roberto Goldback: Taken his form to new level over past two seasons, and started well with a third behind contenders Traquil Sea and J’yVole; Hasn’t gone on from that and made a hash of easier task then this when second last time when well smashed by Rubi Light.

Rubi Light: Taken giant steps forward with nearly every recent run, having made a good fist of things behind Golden Silver before trashing decent Roberto Goldback and has to be of interest even with drying ground; Major contender if handling ground.

Tartak: Has been in great heart of late, winning the Peterbrough Chase and then an extremely competitive Cheltenham Handicap; Has jumped much better than recently for those wins but jumping went to pot at Ascot last time and no way he’ll win this with better round.

Voy Por Ustedes: Was a class act a few seasons back, winning an Arkle/Champion Chase before coming second to Masterminded and then third in this; Not found best form since then and moved to Nicky Henderson (for physical treatment); Can still figure, but how fit he will be after layoff is another question.

J’y Vole: fine third in this last year and unlucky not to get even closer considering the interference that she suffered at the home turn ;Not gone close to that sort of form since,  doing her best work in the closing stages of the John Durkan (given a lot to do as well); Blewout in Lexus and made hash of easier chance last time, so hard to be very confident about her chances for all that she’ll make a bold bid.

VERDICT: Given that he beat Poquelin convincingly in this last year, it’s hard to see why ALBERTAS RUN is priced bigger than him again this year. 

is very strongly fancied to take this but his seasonal form has failed to convince. J’y Vole can stake a claim once again. 

Cheltenham Festival - Jewson Novice Chase

Cheltenham Festival (Day 3, Race 1)

Jewson Novice Chase (1.30)

Picks: Wishfull Thinking (win) & Loosen My Load (each/way)

Bouggler: Won a Grade 2 and performed with plenty of credit over hurdles last season; Made hard work of winning but has bumped into two very good horses the last twice; This looks too hard.

Cootehill: Was a very useful hurdler (won listed hurdle at Kempton and big handicap at Market; Made good start over fences when winning twice but 3 poor efforts since temper enthusiasm.

Loosen My Load: Already proven he handles the course (won Grade 2 over hurdles) ; Started flawlessly in 3 from 3 over fences though, running away with Graded event; Travelled strongly in strong Grade 2 at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting but was tapped for toe in home straight (under penalty); Was giving large amount of weight to a decent pair of horses (winner and second both subsequent winners; Prominent in championship novice ranks) ; Didn’t cut much ice when fourth over Christmas but ground this time will suit, one of safest jumpers in field, and could have everything set up for him.

Mr Cracker: Gained third chase win when bolting home unchallenged in the Greenmount Park novice chase (Grade 2) at Limerick over Christmas; Ran well for a long way behind Noble Prince and Realt Dubh last time and while this is probably his trip on this ground, he has a lot do to be involved at the business.

Mr Gardner: Looked like he could fulfil promise over hurdles when smashing Fistral Beach by 28 lengths at Newbury and just as impressive when romping home on debut over fences; Ran with plenty of credit (would have potentially been much closer but for making a serious mistake); Unlikely to reverse form with Captain Chris should he run in this race.

Mr Thriller: Touted as serious prospect for Graded hurdles after running out a 15-length winner of the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle and then beating Champion Hurdle fifth at Haydock before ground and a mark of 160 stopped those ambitions; Was going to lay down a good challenge to Time For Rupert when falling 2 out on his chasing/seasonal debut (a good effort considering that this isn’t his favoured course); Well beaten in the Dipper chase and Cheltenham record doesn’t enthuse.

Noble Prince: A strong travelling, fluent jumper who’s remarkable versatile as he showed when fourth in the World Series Hurdle before landing beginner’s chase with ease at Punchestown in October; Well behind Realt Dubh over Christmas but got much closer in the Irish Arkle last time and arguably the one to beat here over a trip he should like more than 2 miles on ground he relishes.

Radium: Made good impression when winning Novice Handicap Hurdle here last year and went on to be second in Conditional Jockey’s Hurdle at last year’s festival; Gone a little backward since but still well there when falling in good novice chase 2 starts ago and tough win last time came against a good horse.

Robinson Collonges: Hacked up at Bangor in debut before unlucky fall behind Whishfull Thinking in Grade 2 (giving 6lbs; On way to a clear win); Easy win again at Hereford before a bad mistake 3 out ruined his chances in the December Gold Cup; Not given hard time afterwards and big chance here.

Wishfull Thinking: 3-time winning hurdler (unlucky to fall when holding serious claims in Coral Cup at the festival) who has who has quickly recovered from a fall on his chase debut to win Grade 2 at Wincanton and finish second to Reve de Sivola here (was giving 8lbs; Would have won but for better passage); Put in arguably the best performance in this field when giving a good trashing to quality handicap field here last time and one of main players.

Blazing Tempo: 2 from three over fences and didn’t lose too much in caste when going down giving weight to For Bill (mistake compromised her chances); Better ground may help and lively outsider type here.

VERDICT: A quality turnout happily confirms the need for an intermediate distance chase at the Festival. It’s hard to desert WHISHFULL THINKING after his cracking effort last time, giving weight and a beating to Calgary Bay. At the very least he’ll run a big race. Robinson Collonges should go well although we don’t know how much he’s learned from that mistake in the December Gold Cup, not forgetting that Wishfull Thinking has improved since then. Noble Prince will also take a big hand but at decent odds, LOOSEN MY LOAD is taken to go well at a trip he should like.

Cheltenham Festival - Bryne Group Plate

Cheltenham Festival (Day 3, Race 5)

Byrne Group Plate (1.30)

Picks: Hollo Ladies & Edgebriar (each/way)

Tatenen: Seemingly revitalised for step up in trip and switch in yards when turning competitive handicap into a procession at Ascot two starts ago; Will like this better ground and shorter trip than when well beaten behind Quinz in the Racing Post Chase but passed over here.

Consigliere: Suited by give so disappointed that he flopped so badly in winnable race for horse of his ability (third in Grand Annual off this mark at last year’s festival); Could be given chance at best but that seems like he wants a shorter trip.

Crescent Island: Third in the Jewson two years ago; Reappeared in style with win but well beaten in Racing Post chase and doesn’t make a lot of appeal despite excuses.

Edgebriar: Did well to get as close as he did conceding so much weight to progressive Aquetta over 2 miles at Sandown last time out after not liking softer ground when well behind Tatenen at Ascot; This his target for some time and can go close here.

Hollo Ladies: Had a massive amount of potential for chasing, having won Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas last season; Hasn’t gotten close to translating that form over fences for the Murphy yard, failing to win twice before finally getting off the mark over fences but potential now handicapping and run last time best forgotten (softish ground over that trip may not have helped); One of main players.

Piraya: Although tricky to win with, has probably matched his last winning form twice in defeat this season already; Well beaten by Tatenen at Ascot and can’t be backed here to reverse form even at best trip.

Aigle D’or: lopped in major way over hurdles (favourite for 2008 Neptune) and beaten miles in this last year; Favourite for this off the back off an excellent win when first and only time seen this season at Newbury; Hefty hike in the weights and remains to be seen if he’s one to be trusted.

You’re The Top: Seemed to find 2 miles too short at Ascot last time but would hold claims on run behind Edgebriar, where he’s weighted to go close to his conqueror; Stable in form so not discounted and given chance.

Quarts De Thaix: Fact that stable has won two of last four running makes him an automatic contender here, and has impressed in winning his last two starts; This tougher but not an impossible gap to bridge, progressive and given every chance.

Mathui: Was in form of his life earlier this season, having beaten very useful five Dream by 9 lengths at Ascot before splitting split well-handicapped/unexposed types in a strongly run race at Newbury (winner favourite); This easier than December Gold Cup while he may have gone very close with more restraint at Newbury in very good contest last time; Chance at big odds.

Gansey: Yard won this with Mister McGoldrick three years ago and have been positive about this contender, having beaten hen beating subsequent winner Categorical over 2m4f at Newcastle last month; Ground might be against him and this harder but given plenty of respect nevertheless.

Call Me A Legend: Miles behind Edgebriar at Sandown (although trip may well have been too short for her); Impressive win two starts back but 9lbs higher anyway and best left alone.

Holmwood Legend: May well be able to beat Peplum again despite being 5lbs worse off with that rival (was ahead decisively); Fits many trends here as well, and no surprise to see him going well.

Peplum: Closely weighted with Holmwood Legend on Sandown Saturday race but may not be able to reverse form even though he’s 5lbs better off, the win was that clear cut; Reported to be well for this task but may not be up to it anyway.

Just Smudge: Trainer’s record in this demands respect for this contender but backpedalling when unseating last time and just not gone on since winning earlier in season; Unpredictable.  

Amigayle: Blew up on return having run well to three out and has to be well handicapped (not much strength in depth to this) being now 7lb lower than when creditable second over 3m at Ascot in October 2009; Well worth chance here.

Plein Pouvouir: Has twice since runaway success from a subsequent winner over 2m3f at Chepstow and not to be backed here having flopped at Newbury only twelve days ago.

Beautiful Sound: No obvious excuse for Paddy Power flop when as short as 5/1 on first run out of Hunter company, and although he’s won since, now 10lbs higher; Yard are flying and expected to cope well with conditions here but not unflawed, for all he has big chance.

Storymaker: Looks vulnerable and outclassed based on Bangor win in April.

Bible Lord: Not built on promise although closely matched with quite a few off Ludlow run last month; Ground finally to suit, although 4lbs higher in better race and needs everything to fall right for him.

I’m A Legend: Had superb season, competing a hat – trick with win over 2m at Wincanton before finding only Fistral Beach too good at same track; Two good runs at Ascot (slightly below par latest) are as good a form as any.

VERDICT: A below par running of the Bryne Group Plate. His trainer’s magic festival record gets HOLLO LAIDES a token each/way vote here. He might not have gotten home over three miles last time and may have a big run in him. At big odds, EDGEBRIAR may make a bold bid back on ground he wants at an ideal trip. Quarts De Thaix can’t really be faulted, but Aigle D’Or has only had the one run this season and looks very short, while Beautiful Sound has a lot to prove even at a weakish race for the grade.