Aintree 2011 - Aintree Hurdle

2.50 Aintree

John Smith's Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £90,432

Pick: Peddlers Cross (win)

Binocular: Reached true potential when storming to impressive victory in Champion last year having been below par for a large par of the season, putting in blow par efforts in Fighting Fifth (5th) and Christmas Hurdles (3rd);Travelled very well considering condition in Fighting Fifth behind Peddlers Cross first time out and looked scarily close to his best given it was mid-season when putting together brilliant jumping display to win the Christmas Hurdle easily in January; Awful prep for this when making hard work of beating Ruthenoise last time but much better can be expected today; Unfortunate absence from Champion but will be fresh here, although not certain stayer.

Celestial Halo: High class hurdler (second and fourth in Champion Hurdles) who was the top rated chasing recruit this season until a fall and lacklustre third ruined things on that front; Ran a perfectly satisfactory race in the Reelkeel Hurdle and again behind Oscar Whisky; Continued revival when pushing Mille Chief to a head in the Kingwell Hurdle (should have won) and bolted up in National Spirit Hurdle last time out; Nearly cantering when falling in this race last year and could go very well, although this race promises to be tougher.

Oscar Dan Dan: Made hay 2 seasons ago, his biggest moment coming when he won Grade 1 event last year; Not run to that level since and has too many too good for him.

Oscar Whisky: Made smooth progress as a novice last season, winning his first 2 starts with contemptuous ease and then running fourth in the Supreme Novice Hurdle despite inexperience; Made an impressive return when cantering all over decent middle distance staying hurdlers at 2m4f here on New Year’s Day and had nothing to do when hacking up in Welsh Champion Hurdle; Ran cracker in Champion and likely to get closer to Peddlers Cross at this trip.

Peddlers Cross: Changed hands for £100,000 after winning an Irish point at Liscaroll and has maintained peerless 100% record with wins in bumper at Haydock, novice hurdle at Bangor, Grade 2 at Haydock, Neptune investments Hurdle and Mersey Novice’s Hurdle last year; Put up best performance yet when beating Starluck and Binocular to win the Fighting Fifth at Newbury; interrupted preparation meant that he’d only run once before Champion Hurdle, in which he finished close second to Hurricane Fly; Has a big shot at Compensation here.

Ronaldo Des Mottes: Justified strong support when building on promise as a juvenile at Kempton and ran a blinder when second to Get Me Out Of Here in this race last year (not disgraced in any way when 7th at Punchestown Festival afterwards); Run with credit on two starts this year but this different task although he has a lot of talent.

Salden Licht: Posed to play a big part when brought down in the Totesport Trophy, and close fifth in hot renewal of Country Hurdle ; Step up in trip will suit but this far harder than his last two assignments.

Thousand Stars: Improved out of all recognition last season, landing 2 handicap hurdles before bouncing back from his Pierse Hurdle disappointment with a win in the Country Hurdle and a third behind Solwhit and Hurricane Fly in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle; Has taken good steps forward in all starts this year and can run as well as he did at Cheltenham, possibly without winning.

VERDICT: Another strong renewal of a great race. It’s so hard to desert Binocular after all he’s done for us but a slight stamina doubt means that PEDDLERS CROSS gets the choice to gain deserved compensation for his close defeat to Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle. He’ll be hard pushed to beat Oscar Whisky and Celestial Halo at their natural distances but he completed a double when landing the novices equivalent here last year. 

Grand National 2011

4.15 Aintree

John Smith's Grand National Chase (Grade 3 Handicap) (Class 1)  (6YO plus)

Winner £535,135

Picks (all win/place): Don’t Push It, What A Friend, Tidal Bay

Don’t Push It: Made history when ending Tony McCoy’s barren luck in this race last year, having given very mixed messages over season regards form; Decisive winner off 11-6 and although no winner has repeated in recent times apart from Red Rum, record of such horses has improved; Kept under wraps again and can go very well to repeat last year’s win.

Tidal Bay: High class hurdler chaser/who has undergone something of a revival this season, running on late past beaten horses in Betfair Chase, Aregnto Chase and Gold Cup latest; Has jumping and temperament issues but classy all the same and nature of this race can suit perfectly, if he says on his feet and shows enough interest.

What A Friend: Another high class sort who has two Grade 1’s to his name, one of them being the Totesport Bowl; Not hit same heights this season but ran career best when fourth in Gold Cup from miles back; Well in on this evidence and massive chance if he jumps round, although temperament huge issue on massive run; Given major chance.

Vic Venturi: Shown his liking for these fences when winning Becher Chase two seasons ago and still going well when unseating at Becher’s Brook last year; Solid enough fourth behind Midnight Club in Bobbyjo but very flat effort afterwards and would be hard to fancy based on his rating here.

Majestic Concorde: Had only seven chase runs and showed himself to be exciting prospect with decisive victory in  Paddy Power handicap Chase at Leopardstown last time out; Up 11lbs but has to be respected on way he jumped that day and not to be dismissed here.

Or Noir De Somoza: Cut little ice when sent to David Pipe on only UK run two years ago (well beaten fourth behind Masterminded) and hasn’t seemed same horse in France since, which tempers enthusiasm for his chance here.; Could go well but has a lot in in many ways and stamina is a doubt.

Dooneys Gate: A useful horse in his own right in Ireland, and gained experience of these fences when fourth in last year's Topham, staying one after a blunder; Plenty to like about his wide margin win at Clonmel and seems like stayer, so not dismissed here.

Big Fella Thanks: Sixth in 2009 as novice and fourth 12 months ago when widely fancied to take this race; Shaped like non stayer on latter occasion and has had good prep run , now with Ferdy Murphy; A hold – up ride may change things but handicapper cut no slack this year and may struggle to improve on fourth last year.

The Tother One: Quickly made up into very smart chaser after a lay-off, coming arguably unlucky second in Badger Ales Trophy and behind The Packadge at Cheltenham; Ruined his chances by jumping badly a lot last season but has held his jumping together much better this year, coming second behind Nacarat in the Charlie Hall chase and being beaten only by Denman, Burton Port and Diamond Harry in the Hennessy last time; That run excellent trial for this and forgiven poor show in Argento Chase last time, as this is entirely different test; One of better value outsiders.

Ballabriggs: This been the target ever since he won the 2010 Kim Muir under a big weight, appearing as if he was going to win and win well before being pushed all the way by Faasel; Recent Kelso defeat easily forgiven as it was a slowly-run event over too short a trip; Bold show coming but does not shape as resolute stayer.

The Midnight Club: High progressive and lightly raced horse who has developed into real stayer of late, taking the Bobbyjo with strong late charge after Thyestes Chase second; Very strongly fancied after that and has every chance here for trainer and jockey with great records in this; Good ground OK for him, has right weight for race, and should go close.

Niche Market: Notwithstanding his poor effort in this a year ago, of great interest following Hennessy third off just higher mark earlier on this year; Had wind op and back with regular partner Harry Skelton; Could go very well, and always looked an Aintree horse in style, so given consideration.

Silver By Nature: Did nothing but improve last season and won Blue Square Gold Cup in tremendous fashion by 15 lengths; Repeated same trick in Grand National Trial last time and although he seems a grinder, would be given much more respect if he had a win on good to his name; Could easily go well here, although rain helps his chances.

Backstage: Cantering when effectively brought down last year; All runs under rules since have been poor, so surprise to see him cut so much in market for two pointing wins, admittedly impressive though they were; No surprise to see him go well this year too, but plenty with similar or arguably better chances.

Chief Dan George: Not at all badly treated based on his form last year, and was actually third behind Ballabriggs and Skippers Bring in useful looking Kelso contest; 4lbs better off with winner and although not ruled out (peaks at this time of year), others preferred.

Calgary Bay: Showed some immense promise in his novice chasing season before going well off the boil; Was seriously impressive when landing Doncaster handicap and ran with credit in classy races since; Has plenty of talent and should take to fences, so could be there at finish although he’ll need to take to it.

Killyglen: Has talent to make headway here, and trip, track, and ground are all shown to suit on form; Has shown some spark this year and would be no surprise to see him travel/jump well during race but surprise if he could win here.

Oscar Time: Always shaped as if he was a horse for this race, winning Paddy Power Chase of 2009 before second in Irish National last year off 4lbs lower mark; Since been brought by Whaley Cohen’s and shaped very well on only run over fences this season behind The Midnight Club and Arbor Supreme in Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse; 4lbs better off with front pair and can be given every chance of winning this here; Major shout.

Quinz: Has been transformed for decent going over fences this season, winning by 23 and 14 lengths respectively on first 2 starts this term; Excellent effort win Racing Post Chase and although young for this, has plenty of experience, solid jumper and makes sense for him to be here on his weight; Can go well eve with inexperience.

Becuaseicouldntsee: Progressive stayer who was runner-up in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over four miles last season and ran yet another big race when second in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas; Injured since but has plenty of talent and can be trusted to go well at the least.

Comply Or Die: Admirable horse who deserves plenty of credit anyway; Hero of 2008 (winner) & 2009 (gallant second) Nationals and tried his heart out when making it 3/3 rounds completed, even though he was 12^th last year; Not shown spark for long time so while he looks safe to get round, unlikely to place.

Quilobet: One form nineteen in France for Doumen yard; Creditable efforts in November and apparently brought for this, but didn’t go a yard in Cross Country Chase on first try at this sort of trip, and has too many falls in recent form guide to be considering.

Grand Slam Hero: Summer horse (wins have all come between the months of May and August) some form interesting (and will stay 3m3f at least) but those races generally nothing like this and lacklustre effort last time means that he’s passed over for this.

State Of Play: Beaten 18 & 25 lengths in the last two National but dropped a little again, classy sort and will at least get round; Plotted to bring him here first time out and while record fresh again bolsters case, lack of race fitness means others are taken instead; Not hard to see him go very well.

King Fontaine: On a hot streak earlier this year, winning two ay Haydock in impious style, looking as if he would get much further; Form dropped off a bit but decent run at Cheltenham Festival and may get past quite a few beaten horses late on if staying up all the way round.

In Compliance: Sixth in Topham last year and while he’s shown decent enough form, not horse of past days and has two unseats in last six starts, so very hard to envisage him getting round if he makes too many mistakes and in any case, doubts over what remains in tank .

Hello Bud: Has always given his best and shown plenty on all starts this year (forgive last run; Heavy ground); May make another bold bid although run last year suggests that he will find his exertions too much again.

West End Rocker: Would be serious contender on his two staying chase wins this season (one on good, on on heavy) so disappointing he blew out last time in Grand National Trial; King put that down to ground, which seems strange but has chance here and not to be discounted.

Santa’s Son: Seemed like something back to his best landing 2½m Musselburgh handicap hurdle in February but doesn’t jump well enough to land a national and really has no stamina claims here, so hard pushed to pick him today.

Bluesea Cracker: Irish National winner of low weight (and 9lbs lower mark than today) last year and belter on first start this season when third over 3m5f at Cheltenham behind Midnight Chase; Not a great run in Bobbyjo and has something to prove with better weighted rivals from that race.

That’s Rhythm: Crashed out of last two Scottish Nationals (one when travelling extremely well) and has a worry about how he’ll cope on that front in a big field; Form even more of a worry and has a lot of convincing to do.

Surface To Air: Won Summer National at Uttoxeter by thirteen lengths, completing a hat – trick in process, although he’s not run for three years since following a leg injury; Would be so, so tempting if fit but today’s not his day.

Piraya: Made it round last year but beaten 166 lengths in the process; Has actually run really well in two decent handicap in November but just seems best short of three miles and has a lot to prove after being pulled up twice in last two runs.

Can’t Buy Time: Well below form this year, and jumping frailties exposed when falling have made slow starts 8th two years ago and the eighth last year; Looked non stayer on only run at 4m that he’s completed,  so passed over.

Character Building: Enough to suggest ability is retained this year; Got way too far back when completing this course last year, making large amount of ground to threaten for places; Could go well again but needs to show more early to keep up with pace.

Ornais: Has come back from 2 year absence with couple of hunter chase runs; Encouraging as it is to see he’s in one piece, those runs seem to have confirmed that he’s lost his ability of old; Long trip and safe pair of hands in Nick Scholfield will help, but not his day.

Arbour Supreme: Always had jumping issues but let’s not doubt his talent for a second; Won over 3m6f and arrives of one of best efforts for good while when beating all but Midnight Club in Bobbyjo; Only length between them and cards set for emphatic reversal of form today if running his race, so no reason why he can’t make an impact; David Casey superb booking.

Royal Rosa: Has been placed in the last two runnings of the Becher Chase, but was going too slowly when unseating late on first circuit last year; Really not rated as he should be and while he’s got credentials for getting round, no real credentials for success.

Skippers Brig: Managed to outsprint Ballabriggs in slowly run Kelso contest over a much shorter trip at Kelso; Many expect easy form reversal but he’s 8lbs better off and appears to stay three miles well, so has a big chance of making an impact here.

Golden Kite: Took Munster National with bold front running display from the front, holding on by a short head; Warmed up with nice spin over hurdles although he’s never shaped as if he’s going to stay beyond 3m1f so hard to see what he can do today.

VERDICT: The race we’ve all been waiting for and it couldn’t have been a much harder race to solve, with many cases to be made for a lot of horses to say the least. It’s hard to find a place to start but The Midnight Club seems as good a place as any, having won a key national trial in the Bobbyjo. His trainer and his jockey have impeccable records around here and he’s always looked like the perfect type for this. He’s no certainty to confirm the form with Arbour Supreme, who’s far better off with the winner for a close defeat, Oscar Time, who travelled supremely well that day, and Bluesea Cracker, last year’s Irish National winner. It may be that a good each/way shout to start with would be last year’s winner DON’T PUSH IT, who carried 11-5 and won by 5 lengths and has the credentials to do the same again following a good prep this season. He has to face a group of much better horses though, and WHAT A FRIEND is a key example of this. There’s little else that TIDAL BAY loves than running through beaten horses, and given that he’s as big as 40/1, he’s taken as cover for the places. There’s every chance he could bounce here following his great Gold Cup effort but he could also take to it and if staying, he’s too well in to ignore.  Backstage was going well when he tipped up last year (through no fault of his own) but a couple of point wins, while a good preparation, do not make him as short as 12-1, especially when one considers his form from last year after falling here. Ballabriggs should make a bold show but his stamina may give way, and he’s no certainty to to confirm form with Skippers Brig. Big Fella Thanks is another with stamina concerns, while Quinz is only just too young for this and Silver By Nature is given a chance although his bare form might to be good enough.  Majestic Concorde, State Of Play, and possibly West End Rocker are all others to consider. 

Aintree 2011 - John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle

2.00 Aintree

John Smith's Top Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £31,356

Pick: Brampour (each/way)

Alarazi: Impressive when winning the Imperial Cup with plenty to spare over very solid yardstick for the time off 126; Flopped when favourite for the Country Hurdle although race might have come a bit soon and would want a flatter track like today.

Andhaar: Showed good attitude to take two novice hurdles on spin and so nearly made it a hat trick under penalty in decent event at Doncaster last time but this much harder and not fancied.

Desert Cry: Showed benefit of experience when trashing 120 rated horse (who opposes today) at Sedgefield and good run in Grade 2 at Kelso last month (third, fourth and fifth won next time as well as third also making frame of big handicap hurdle here yesterday) and given plenty of respect.

Iolith: Won his first two starts this season with considerable ease, bolting up at Taunton with seemingly plenty in hand; was entered in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, so was clearly well thought of but well beaten in handicap hurdle at Taunton.

Little Hercules: Clear cut winner of weak 2m Musselburgh novice hurdle after good efforts in Catterick bumpers; Should go onto better things but today’s test likely to be too tough.

Maggio: Plenty of decent efforts but this much too high for him; Brushed aside by Desert Cry at Sedgefield.

Perfect Smile: Strong-travelling sort who didn't need to be at best to cruise home at Punchestown on reappearance (was fully entitled to do so);Travelled very well coming to the home turn before emptying out in the straight in Royal Bond and unable to live with three very good horses in Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown; From worked out very well and ground should be perfect for him, so no surprise to see him go well.

Sire De Grugy: Progressive sort who had little trouble brushing aside modest opposition at Fakenham and Folkestone but notably impressive when landing Dovecote Novices Hurdle with ease from useful Empire Levant; Every chance here.

Toploski: Has achieved high level of form in both novice hurdle wins, getting better of useful field at Sandown with ease and then bolting up under big penalty from subsequent winner at Newton Abbot and likely to make the grade here.

Brampour: Listed placed on flat in France and one of most anticipated jumping recruits all season; Shaped with promise on debut at Kempton although would have been beaten by A Media Luz had she stayed up; Improved on that when coming home clear in good maiden hurdle at Taunton, looking as if he had Trop Fort beaten when left clear at last; Travelled quite well in Triumph until flattening out up the hill; This looks easier on face of it, flatter track should suit and may make a bold bid.

Empire Levant: Struggled for greenness when third behind useful pair in Titan De Sarti and Third Intention, and made amends quickly when fairly coasting home from Palawi at Doncaster; Put in his place by Sire De Grugy last time and result should be confirmed.

First In The Queue: Making a decent first of things on debut when staying on and still not beaten behind Brampour at Taunton and made amends in good style at Huntingdon last time; This harder but not discounted, for all that he needs to improve as well.

Polisky: No match for Supreme Novices third Sprinter Sacre at Ascot but ran well nevertheless and should be more to come, so given respect; Should enjoy strong pace on this ground.

Oilily: Been in first two all starts this season, coming good o good winner in mares Grade 3 at Down Royal in November; Should try her hardest but in all honesty, has too much ground to make up.

A Media Luz: Very smart filly on flat in France, winning her first 2 starts before runner up in a Group 3 at Saint Cloud and excellent sixth in the Prix Vermille; Taken time to get used to jumping, pulling her race away on first two runs before coming down when set to win at Kempton but put that right when bolting up from useful yardstick Panxatoa at Huntingdon 2 starts ago; Pulling too hard stopped her in Triumph last time but flat speedy track will suit, so well worth a good look.

VERDICT: BRAMPOUR is no more than a tentative choice to make the frame here, but he’s better than his finishing position suggest in the Triumph and this flat track may see an improvement. Sire De Grugy is the one to beat after an impressive display in Dovecote, and he should take all the beating here. Of those at bigger prices, Perfect Smile & Polisky make the most appeal, while Topolski can be expected to take a major hand. 

Aintree 2011 - Melling Chase

3.05 Aintree

John Smith's Melling Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £98,910

Pick: Albertas Run (win)

Albertas Run: Peaks at this time of year, as he showed last season when completing a Cheltenham/Aintree double with wins in the Ryanair Chase and this very race; Attempts to do the same here and every chance after a battling win in the Ryanair.

Chaininbar: Had a good season last year, with a wide margin win at this Festival by 15 lengths in 2 mile handicap chase and also a win at Newbury (both valuable events); Has a fussy side though, and refused to race on both occasions at big spring festivals last twice, so cannot be fancied and in any case, not good enough.

French Opera: Had an incredible season last year, winning 5 out of his 6 races and coming desperately close second in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival (compensated with Grade 2 afterwards); Ran a shocker on seasonal reappearance but put that right when bolting up in Game Spirit Chase; This trip too far after festival disappointment.

Kalahari King: Made fine return last season when winning valuable 2m handicap chase at Doncaster, so disappointing that he was easily beaten first time out this season(not given hard race); Well beaten in Tingle Creek and Jumpers Bumper to start but attracted major interest when staying on from miles back to come very respectable fourth in the Victor Chandler Chase, and nearly caught Albertas Run in Ryanair Chase at festival, so has to be seen as main threat.

Made In Taipan: Very useful chaser/hurdler who posted some decent efforts last season; runs this year are much less inspiring.

Mad Max: Has made a very solid start to life over fences, and was running a big race until a crashing error two out in the Arkle; Appeared to be suited by longer trips when hacking up at this meeting last year, but weak finishes in the Paddy Power and December Gold Cup gave impression that drop back would suit; Failed to cut little, if any ice in the Victor Chandler Chase or at festival last time but wouldn’t be a trusted stayer.

Masterminded: Has proven truly outstanding in 2 mile chases, putting up one of great modern displays when cruising home in 2008 Champion Chase; Rib injury was thought to be reason behind below par reappearance year and was widely expected to be Champion Chaser for third time, but never able to get in race from 2 out (quick ground blamed); Had wind op and looked back to best when romping home in Amilin 1965 Chase, confirming that impression when trashing 5 reopposing rivals in Tingle Creek; Made to work far harder to hold on at death in Victor Chandler from Somsersby but showed that he wouldn’t shirk a battle when grinding it out; Running a fair race (in no way definitely beaten) when battering three out, when he wasn’t bothered with afterwards; Expected to like step up in trip and will have ground slower than at Cheltenham, but needs more than what he showed there to be involved.

Somersby: Impressed on 4 starts novice chasing last season, winning Henry the II Chase in impressive style and running second in the Arkle and at this meeting (over same trip as today) afterwards; Ran on from miles back to be third in the Tingle Creek, and even better when pushing Masterminded all the way in Victor Chandler at Ascot; Would have won that race over today’s trip and shapes as if he’ll do really well over longer distances although more needed than when fifth in Champion Chase last time.

Tartak: Has been in great heart of late, winning the Peterbrough Chase and then an extremely competitive Cheltenham Handicap; Has jumped much better than recently for those wins but jumping went to pot at Ascot and well beaten in Ryanair.

Would need a career best by some way on figures but rating underestimate very classy sort, who will be well suited by coming here fresh having missed Cheltenham; Impressive when winning John Durkan Chase, form that has been well upheld by J’y Vole; Has to be given chance here.

VERDICT: A familiar cast come back for what’s usually a stellar race and ALBERTAS RUN, so tough to beat when at his best on this ground, can complete the spring festival double for the second year running and is taken to beat off Kalahari King again. Champions Chase principals Masterminded and Somersby will be popular as ever but both would need to run better than their Champion Chase form to win here while Tranquil Sea mustn’t be underestimated. 

Aintree 2011 - Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle

2.30 Aintree

Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO only)

Winner £56,520

Pick: Zarkandar (win)

Grandouet: Taken time to get used to UK racing but progressing fast now; Gave stablemate A Media Luz 17lb and an easy beating at Newbury in December, and impressed many when making short work of modest opposition at Ascot; Travelled better than anything turning for home in Triumph and will be better suited to a flatter track.

Houblon Des Obeaux: Had looked exposed based on French efforts but was a fine second in Final Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow, arguably best juvenile hurdle run this season; Managed to just get better of Third Intention thanks to fact that runner up pulling too hard and soft ground; Well behind that rival in Triumph on better ground and probably same story here.

Kumbeshwar: Put up a cracking debut hurdling performance to win at Sandown, given that he made up 12 lengths on useful long-time leader from three out, having made mistakes on the way round; Ran belters on all starts since, including when getting pipped by What A Charm in Fred Winter off topweight; Not without chance but hard to see him troubling Triumph horses.

Launchpad: Lot to like about his step – by – step improvement, taking conditions hurdle with ease last time out; That said lot more needed, and  may make useful horse but not fancied for today’s assignment.

Local Hero: Has done everything asked of him in great style on both starts, dotting up at Catterick before giving weight and a beating to Franklino at Doncaster (easily); Gained biggest success yet when gamely beating Third Intention to win Grade 2 on trials day here despite sloppy jumping but that stopped him when well beaten fourth at Chepstow when jumping out to the right; Ran OK in Triumph but unlikely to reverse form here.

Maoi Chinn Tire: Sprang the shock of the season when running away with listed hurdle at 200/1 at beginning of season; Failed to really confirm that form when running at Cheltenham & Kempton, and this again likely to prove too tough.

Oriental Cat: Really quite a capable horse, having won twice and gained a rating of 91 for John Gosden; Seems like a useful type for jumping but lack of experience is too big an ask here.

Palalawi: Has won four out of six at a lower level, making short work of two confidence boosters after being well dispatched by Empire Levant at Doncaster; Struggled when upped in class and although better now, still given swerve.

Third Intention: Showed impressive attitude for a debutant when landing a good juvenile hurdle at Newbury, beating a subsequent second and winner; Built on that in defeat at Cheltenham, pulling hard early on and only just getting caught by Local Hero, and same story again when getting caught by Houblon Des Oebaux; Well beaten by Grandouet and Zarkandar in Triumph but this track is perfect for him, so he may well be closer than form suggests.

Zarkandar: Half-brother to unbeaten Arc winner Zarkava; Showed plenty of talent when finishing first, second and third on only three flat starts in France but made immensely promising debut when jumping well and coming right away with Moltof, and even better form when outclassing Triumph Hurdle rivals, coming right away with slick jump at the last; Should be too good if in same form after foot abscess this week.

VERDICT: The flatter track may well mean that Grandouet and Third Intention get much closer to ZARKANDAR than they did in the Triumph, but the winner that day should be too good again if a foot abscess hasn’t bothered him too much. 

Aintree 2011 - Liverpool Hurdle

2.00 Aintree

BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £57,010

Pick: Big Buck’s (win)

Big Buck’s: Unbeaten on all ten starts since switching back to hurdles, having won this race twice and taken just about every single major staying hurdle inbetween; Made easy work of beating inferior rivals in the Long Walk Hurdle but absolutely superb in World Hurdle, where he found enough to beat Grands Crus after the last; Should do so again here.

Calrito Brigante: Has continued steady progression he showed as a 4 year old from last season by winning valuable Haydock event and then making light work of a mark of 142 when left clear at last; This big step up in grade but has always looked as if trip would suit, and with ground come right for him, no surprise to see massive show.

Grands Crus: Has improved hand over first for the step up in trip this season, bolting up in two good handicaps, the first here and the second at Haydock; Put in one of most impressive performances of season when routing the Cleeve Hurdle field, scooting 15 lengths clear between last two flights without rider having to ask any serious questions that day; Unable to stop Big Buck’s at Cheltenham but will give it his best and cut in ground suits his cause.

Gwanako: Ran only four times last season, but showed promise on all of those runs, making good headway coming to the business end of the Byrne Group Plate; was still in contention for minor honours when falling two out behind Edgbriar over C&D earlier this season and made good comeback over hurdles before finding the Cleeve too much; Poor run in Pertemps and makes no appeal.

Karabak: Progressed well as a novice, and Got three miles really well when running  great race to finish second to Big Buck’s in Long Walk hurdle and also to finish fourth in World Hurdle, so disappointing that he bombed at Punchestown afterwards; Well beaten behind Silviniaco Conti in Ascot Hurdle but back to best in Reelkeel Hurdle; Not won since and well behind top two on form.

Khyber Kim: Proved an absolute revelation last year with wins in the Greatwood and Bula Hurdle before an excellent second in this last year, topped off with a win in the Aintree Hurdle here; Disappointed on two runs since and his well being and stamina to prove but top notcher at best; Can alt it up with best of them if all’s well.

Knockara Beau: Has failed to recreate form of last year so far but impressed majorly when second to Grands Crus and when winning qualifier; Gallant fourth in Pertemps but this much harder.

Markington: Been running shockers on three of his last four hurdles starts, and last win was in a handicap off 116; No realistic chance.

Possol: Has been aimed at Grand National but so talented over hurdles (came close third to Big Bucks in last year’s renewal after fifth in Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle) that he bypassed that target last season; Only had one run since, and that run poor so passed over.

Sentury Duty:  Patchy hurdles strike rate (won 4 from 10) but very classy and good enough when the cards fall right; Comes here fresh but this looks too good for him today.

Won In The Dark: Grade 1 winner who performed with credit last season(won twice) and was fourth in Aintree Hurdle; Has a lot to do if he’s going to make frame here, as he’s gone backwards in the interim.

VERDICT: A real treat to open the National meeting. The softer ground may well help Grands Crus get closer to BIG BUCKS, but the World Hurdle winner looks the superior horse and has outstanding prospects of completing a second hat – trick in a month. Carlito Brigante is given respect as he’s stepped up in class, while Khyber Kim is as talented as anything if his well-being and stamina can be taken on trust. 

Aintree 2011 -Totesport Bowl

3.05 Aintree

totesport Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £84,780

Pick: Denman (win)

Deep Purple: Hasn’t enjoyed the most productive of seasons, tarnishing a promising comeback when running no sort of race in the Peterborough Chase (no chanced when hampered at 11^th) and much the same story when thrashed behind Riverside Theatre in the Ascot Chase; Presumably better now, and  ran well when third to Nacarat in bid to win Charlie Hall in October for a second time, conceding winner 10 lb.

Denman: Outstanding Gold Cup winner of 2008 who had heart trouble which has kept him to slightly below par performances since then; Put in one of the outstanding performances of modern times to win Hennessey last year off a mark of 174, producing outstanding jumping & front running display (Didn’t reach same form last season); Showed ablity still remains when 15l third giving almost two stone to two progressive young chasers in 2010 Hennessy, even better when gallant second to Long Run in Cheltenham Gold Cup; May have had very hard race (affected him when falling at evs here 2 years ago) but still outstanding horse.

Follow The Plan: Sprung a surprise in Kinloch Brae Chase but not done much since, and beaten when falling at last in Leopardstown Handicap Chase last time out, but not good enough for this and may not stay.

Nacarat: Impressed on first foray into this company when nearly making all the running in the Melling Chase after a romp in the Racing Post Chase; Went off boil since but has slowly came back into some sort of form afterwards and confirmed revival with easy Charlie Hall Chase win (albeit getting 10lbs from Deep Purple); Performed with credit when attempting to lead all the way in the Betfair Chase and trying same tactics in King George, but failure to see out his race again in Racing Post Chase; May get easy lead.

Punchestowns: Rapidly developed into a top-class hurdler, winning 4 of 7 starts including the Long Walk Hurdle and coming second in the Cleeve and World Hurdles in; Continued in the same vein over fences when dotting upon his first 2 starts over fences nut just not gone on since, disappointing in RSA and on all subsequent starts since (flattered to win last time as Pasco got tired); Had 55 day break since and small field should help, but jumping issues always a catch.

Carole’s Legacy: Classy mare who was second to Quevga in the Mares Hurdle at the festival; Unexposed very fences, having won three of her four starts (other in a Mare’s Chase final); Impressive when beating Banjaxed Girl at Kempton first time out and ran a great race to be second to Tartak over fences, before catching tartar in Sparky May; Career best to get to within half a length of Bensalem in Spinal Research Trophy at Cheltenham, and respected here.

VERDICT: There could be many valid reasons given for taking on DENMAN, but many things are in his favour and the ground’s come right for him, so he may have enough to overturn the poor record of Gold Cup runners in this race, especially with the small field allowing him an easier time of it mid – race. Nacarat has a small field to play to his advantage too, but it’s a worry that he hasn’t been seeing out his races of late and in any case he’s is by no means certain to confirm Wetherby superiority over Deep Purple. Carole’s Legacy may be the biggest threat given that Punchestowns’ jumping is still error prone.