Belmont Stakes 2014

11.52 Belmont Stakes

Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo)

Winner: £481,928 Runners: 11 Distance: 1m4f Going: Fast  Channel: AR/RU

Advice: 1 pt win, 3 pts place Wicked Strong (7/1 general, evs Betfair), 1 pt win, 1 pt place Commanding Curve (8/1 general, 6/4 Betfair)

Medal Count: as yet to prove that he could go on dirt but should have finished better than eighth in Kentucky Derby with a clear run and plenty of stamina in the pedigree from Dynaformer even if there isn’t so much on the damside; Derby a big personal best by some way as rest of previous form doesn’t match up to that effort, but respected here and interesting outsider.

California Chrome: All the range heading into the Derby and lived upto expectations, routing his field from perfect spot after a perfect trip; Forced to work harder in the Preakness but can’t fail to be impressed with the way he saw off well beaten third (Social Inclusion) and held Ride On Curlin (reopposing today), having hit the front around the although that even more of a test of speed for him; Big question today is his stamina lasting out over 2 extra furlongs on a surface that lends itself to stayers, over which there may be questions for him and opposable from betting point of view for the first time here.

Matterhorn: Proved hard to get going from behind on the day on sloppy surface when he was fourth in the Peter Pan behind Tonalist and Commisioner, so could be better than that effort suggests, but that form leaves him with a  lot of ground to make up on the main contenders here and would like to see more stamina in the pedigree.

Commanding Curve: Had looked well short of Triple Crown class in the spring but showed potential before the Derby at Fairground when he lost his chance at the start; Found himself well behind the early running pace in the Derby as well before making extremely strong late progress to claim a share of second; That effort impressive enough without fact he was running off slow fractions and while dam’s side of pedigree doesn’t scram Belmont winner, is a son of A.P Indy and looked as if he’d relish every yard of 1m4f on that occasion; Contender here.

Ride on Curlin: Coming too late in the Arkansas Derby and after nightmare run at Chruchill Downs, in the Preakness when he drew well clear with California Chrome although he never looked like passing him there; May be happier at this trip but that’s no given on any indicator; Still rates a major player.

Matuzak: Shapes as if this trip will be the making of him (sire had runner up in this) and been slowly progressing, but even the best of his form quite a way behind what’s needed here based on Kid Cruz’s Preakness effort and others readily preferred

Samraat: Unbeaten in his first 5 starts but then had no answer to Wicked Strong and looked a non stayer in Kentucky Derby when behind that rival again and this trip not the one for him either it would seem; Hard to fancy.

Commissioner: 4 lengths behind Tonalist in Peter Pan Stakes and that form doesn’t look as if it’s going to be improved upon visually although bred for the job like no other, with his sire and Dam’s sire a winner of this race in the past; Not possible he can make quite a bold bid here.

Wicked Strong: Course winner here, to add to the form figures of 2131 that he has in New York and kickback apparently cause of two disappointing runs before Trashing Samraat in the Wood Memorial (Social Inclusion further behind still); Leaden footed in Kentucky Derby, but found himself wide and poorly positioned from widest stall and took fourth with last stride; This trip should be right up his street (pedigree offers hope with Hard Spun’s dam 1m4f graded winner) and better chance of getting a clear position, so high on shortlist.

General A Rod: Could never get into the Derby shakeup but looked as if 1m4f might be his trip when plugging on into fourth in the Preakness latest, where he lost his place on the bend to add to his troubles; By same sire as 2010 winner too, so not hard to build a persuasive case; Only trouble is free racing tendency which hampered him before the Derby.

Tonalist: Just the four runs but one of those defeats to Constitution, this year’s Florida Derby winner, and looked a real class act when running out a ready winner of the Peter Pan Stakes over 1m1f here, with Commissioner/Matterhorn behind; Can go very well here.

VERDICT: One of the biggest nights of the year as a great card ends with California Chrome’s Triple Crown bid. While he’s the winner we all want, this trip is a massive unknown for one so speedy and so is this track given how he’s thrived on the lighting fast strips he’s raced on so far. In both Triple Crown legs, he’s gotten the jump on his rivals at the top of the stretch or around the turn, but that will be much harder for him to do today and at 5/4, which a host of rivals who you can make a strong case, for, he has to be taken on. WICKED STRONG was flat footed when things counted in the Derby but had a rougher trip than most and was making late progress to take fourth at the post from Samraat. He’s better than he was able to show there and with only 11 instead of 20 runners, and a better run through, he could relish 1m4f and be there at the end. Derby second COMMANDING CURVE had a clear run down the outside, but impressed with the way he went past much of the field off some desperately slow sectionals by Derby standards and if he holds out over this trip (lot of speed in pedigree) his late kick could prove decisive. Tonalist deserves serious respect, and best of the outsiders may well be General A Rod although Medal Count has gone unnoticed.