Betfred Eider Chase 2012

3.25 Newcastle

 Betfred Eider (Handicap Chase) (Class 2)  (5YO plus)
Winner £21,756

Advice: 1 pt each/way Mister Marker (7/1 general)

Mister Marker: Third in Borders National when behind Eyre Square (with whom he is now weighted to reverse form) and ran good race over hurdles before his recent Ayr win; 8lbs rise seems to be harsh for that but will be in the thick of things anyway.

Portrait King: Progressive upped to staying distances recently, and hard not to be taken with way he landed 3m4f National Trial at Punchestown; Up 13lbs for that and this race might be a bit tougher, but should have more to offer in general while step up in trip holds no danger for him; Ground might be a possible question mark.

Eyre Square: Proven steadily progressive before fairly limp run over 3m,having landed the Borders National (both Lockstown and Mister Marker behind) previously; More needed to hold off topweight today on worse terms but no surprise if he’s upto it.

Captain Americo: Just out of the frame in last 5 handicap chases, although he seemed to find thing s happening too quickly for him on the better ground in the Rehearsal Chase and didn’t seem to stay fully during the Borders National; Rallying second latest gives good chance but more needed.

Morgan Be: One of only three to complete this last year and second before that; Now 12 and still as good as ever when sticking on gamely over 3 miles, a win for which he was raised 3lbs; Claims on the basis of that form.

 

Douglas Julian: Fairly prolific winner over fences (won four from 9) but those all at 2m4f and poor run over hurdles here last time (despite excuses); Stamina the question for him.

Posh Bird: Just nailed down by Mister Marker last time over 3 miles at Ayr; Weighted to turn around that form today and a better winner over longer trip the time beforehand; Chance here.

 Incentivise: Would be of interest based on his staying on third in last year’s Classic Chase but not run close to that form since and still 3lbs higher than his last win; Stays well but others in much better form.

Present M’Lord: This isn’t impossible based on his third behind Gullible Gordon in October 2010 and he’s a full 10lbs lower but very hard to see how he can find full form unless he comes on a huge amount for his seasonal debut. 

 Negus De Beaumont: Looking he was going to become disappointing over fences before grinding out the win late on in 3 mile novice chase here latest; Pulled up in last year’s renewal and 7lbs rise for latest win (although negated by inform conditional) seems harsh.

Boris The Blade: Out for a long time after presumably injuring himself in 2009; Shown little this season on his comeback.

VERDICT: An interesting renewal, and hopefully one that should be fairly watchable given the good to soft ground forecast.  Portrait King deserves a big amount of respect after his impressive win at Punchestown last time and he should go well but MISTER MARKER has good claims too and is better off at the weights with Eyre Square for his defeat at Kelso in December. He fits the usual profile of an Eider winner and should be hard to keep out of the frame.