Betfair Denman Chase 2012

12.40 Newbury

Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £17,085

Advice: 4.5 pts Long Run (4/6 general) 1 pt Long Run / Tidal Bay straight forecast (5.38 Bet365), 3 pt double Sprinter Sacre (12.10), Long Run (12.45) (6/4 general)


Ante Post: 3 pts Long Run to win today and Cheltenham Gold Cup (10/3 Hills)

 

Long Run: Went from pretender to undisputed champion last term, storming home in King George and Gold Cup with tremendous late burst last year on both occasions; Second to rejuvenated Kauto Star twice this season, making mistakes on both occasions, although that form still far clear of what anything in this field has to offer; A convincing win here is needed to underline Gold Cup claims and no reason why he shouldn’t, with his fitness surely not an excuse.

The Giant Bolster: Takes liberties at his fences sometimes but plenty of class to go with that, as he showed when taking apart decent handicap chase field at Cheltenham last time out; If posting that figure again he could run a very big race for all he’s giving 6lbs to the rest of the field & getting just 4lbs from Long Run.

Burton Port: One of most progressive and probably underrated novice chasers of 2 years ago, winning 5 times (including the December, Reynoldstown and Mildmay Chases) and coming second in the RSA Chase; Excellent run when second in the Hennessy behind Diamond Harry and may a be a threat at his best, although he’s been out with tendon problem for a more than a year.

Tidal Bay: High class hurdler chaser/who went something of a revival last season, running on late past beaten horses in Betfair Chase, Argento Chase and Gold Cup before unseating in Grand National; Decent return over hurdles when shaping as if he retained all ability and good run once again behind Midnight Chase in Argento; Interesting forecast option.

What A Friend: Seen by many as a Gold Cup contender after wins in Lexus Chase and Totesport Bowl 2 seasons ago and while he had troubled season, did go some way to fulfilling that promise when fourth in the Gold Cup last season; 10lbs better off with Long Run for that although he’s not been seen since running dreadfully (reportedly came back sick) over hurdles at Wetherby and all but threw this race away last season; Second best at weights easily.

VERDICT: Anything other than a convincing win for LONG RUN, even while giving 10lbs to last year’s Gold Cup fourth What A Friend, would be a surprise. Nicky Henderson’s defending Gold Cup winner is odds on but he really should win and win well and is worth sticking as the base of any doubles, while justifying any heavy support, on his way to the Gold Cup. The Giant Bolster has an abundance of talent as shown by his win last time out, although the weights are quite different for this particular task, and maybe Tidal Bay is an interesting forecast shout. Ruby Walsh got on fairly well with him last time to take second in the Argento and it’s not hard to see something similar happening here with doubts over two of his rivals fitness.