3 pts win Keys, 1.15 Ascot (8/11 Betfred, Stan James)
The inform Nicky Henderson seems to have everything going
for him and he can get the day off to a perfect start with Keys in the opener
at Ascot. Unbeaten in three bumpers, the last of that sequence being a Listed
win at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
After two impressive wins in flat handicaps in the space of
6 days (raised 16lbs but got just a 6lbs penalty), he was sent off just a 6/1
shot after a massive gamble for the Cambrigeshire, but he could never truly get
through to the front and weakened into midfield late on.
He’s only had the one hurdle outing but he travelled well
before being well beaten by Cinders and Ahses, who has since confirmed himself
to be a Supreme Novices candidate. With that run under his belt he should take
some stopping here. There are also plenty of improvers in here, with The Last
Night, Saint Roque, Bold Henry and Super Duty all holding claims of some sort,
but Nicky Henderson’s charge gets the vote.
1 pt each/way Swincombe Flame , 3.35 Ascot 5/1 general)
Nick Williams’s Swincombe Flame probably didn’t get the
credit she deserved when winning the Lanzarote Hurdle thanks to the ban that
Will Kennedy – rightly or wrongly – received during her win, and the criticism
that James Best got for his ride in the latter stages, where Featherbed Lane
lost out giving away more than a stone at the finish late on, but that win made
it 5 wins from 6 starts in her carrer and with only a 5lbs rise leading to
another low weight, she can go close again.
Before that win she’d looked like a good mare when dotting
up twice after her promising hurdling debut, and the fact she dossed a lot late
on during her Wincanton win as she’s got a rating of just 129 and the fact that
she handles all kind of ground should put her spot on for his.
Crack Away Jack has a good chance on his best hurdling form
(second in an Ascot Hurdle to Chomba Womba) and he looked a little revived when
chasing last time out, as he’d surely have been placed but for a pretty serious
mistake a couple of fences from home, and he’s interesting.
Orzare is also one to take very seriously, with a handy
weight pull on Smad Place based on his comeback, although the fly in the
ointment might be Valid Reason, who beat the subsequent double winner Deirdeah
Re here back in November before then following up under a hefty penalty in
December at Towcester.
The one to beat is definitely Smad Place, who posted a
career best effort when romping away with the Holloway’s Hurdle last time. The
improvement he showed for a step up in trip could be repeated given that he was
making his seasonal debut, and with a rise of just 8lbs he could look a like a
real value bet at 4’s afterwards, but it could pay to keep the faith with Nick
Williams’s charge.
2 pt double Rubi Light (2.05 Gowran Park), Zaidpour (3.15
Gowran Park) (1.88 Sportingbet)
With all the top class racing from Ascot today – reliably
backed up by a solid card from Haydock and the Kingwell at Wincanton – it would
be easy to forget that there’s a Graded double at Gowran Park today.
Individually Rubi Light (running in the Red Mills Chase) and
Zaidpour (running in the Hurdle equivalent) wouldn’t be touched with a
bargepole, but there seems to be little harm in a double with the two.
Rubi Light only has the one serious rival on form – that being
Apt Approach – and even then he should be able to deal with him based on his
higly impressive win in the John Durkan at Punchestown, and his creditable
second in the Lexus at Leopardstown. He
loves a bit of cut in the ground and is probably superior by more than 2lbs to
Apt Approach, so defeat here would be disappointing.
Zaidpour hadn’t beaten much in two easy wins this season
before taking the scalp of Voler La Vedette last time, but little seems to be presenting
a serious threat to him even down in trip and the fact he’s used to slowly run
races should help him if things turn into a sprint here, and defeat for him
would too be very disappointing.
No comments:
Post a Comment