Prix Du Jockey Club 2010

3.04 Chantilly
Prix Du Jockey Club ((3yo Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner €968,523 - 22 run

Win Pick: Cape Blanco

Each / Way picks: Lope De Vega, Viscount Nelson

Ice Blue: Showed an excellent turn of foot to beat Handsome Devil twice this season (Prix De Ferrieres /Prix Greffulhe ), and fact that he won more impressively last time confirms impression he is fast improving for a trainer bidding to win this for sixth time, and must be respected today with booking of Ryan Moore significant.

Bhekabad: Has always been held in high regard by connection who know how to win this race, and showed immense promise when unbeaten in three races at two, finishing last year with a comfortable victory in the Group 3 Prix des Chenes at Longchamp; Heavy ground and lack of fitness conspired against him when beaten into third in Prix Omnium II; Back to true form when last seen in Prix du Guiche, coasting into the straight, responding well and reversing form with rivals who beat him previously in the process; Must be given major chance here over trip he should like a lot.

Green Rock: Unbeaten/listed winner at two, only just getting better of fairly moderate field; Hard to know if he has improved in his 2 runs this year and has to contend with car park draw, not to mention facing Ice Blue and Handsome Devil.

Big Creek: Beaten in listed company and trashed in Italian Derby, so looks outclassed here.

Shamalagan: Quickly exposed as 2 year old and it had been same story as 3 year old, finishing well beaten sixth on both starts this year, before staying on third in French 2,000 Guineas last time; Needs more to win here and has to contend with bad draw and reverse form with winner Lope De Vega.

Prince Pretender: Has been beaten on 3 starts this year, none of them in graded company so up against it to say the lease.

Handsome Devil: Got the better of Rewilding on his first start but was disappointing on seasonal reappearance when beaten 11 lengths into fourth in conditions event; Has since redeemed himself with 2 seconds to leading contender Ice Blue but unlikely to reverse form today.

Dancing David: Very promising maiden win at Newbury considering that he was green from Pillar to post, making all to win impressively, and built on that again with a very good effort to finish fourth in Racing Post Trophy; Hasn’t quite built on that this year, being well beaten by Elusive Pimpernel and then getting nailed late on by Azmeel In Dee Stakes last time; Deserves to take his chance in what should be an ideal test but up against it here.

Cape Blanco: Made his debut in conditions company as a 2 year old and made it a winning one, fighting on strongly to get the better of decent looking Balgioni; Unbeaten in 2 further starts last year, taking the eye when easily winning Tyros Stakes and then following up in Futurity Stakes; Form of his Dante Stakes win got an unbelievable boost when runner up Workforce (who is clearly better than that form) roped home with Derby in record time yesterday; While it’s sensible not to go overboard about that form, he will have needed the run abdly and can be expected to go close here.

Planteur: Won two out of three starts at two, and looked star material as he justified favouritism in the Prix Noailles, scoring a decisive victory over Rewilding on his first and only start of this season; Subsequent exploits of runner up gave form a real boost and should take a big hand in proceedings.

Vivre Libre: Well beaten on all starts to looks to be making up the numbers.

Ivory Blue: Has run two really solid races in Group 2 company this year, but has been beaten soundly by classic hopes Planteur and Silver Pond; That form gives him too much ground to be making up.

Lope De Vega: Won both his first starts in the style of an extremely smart colt, both by 2 and a half lengths before finish fourth in the Prix Jean Luc behind Siyoni; Reversed form with Aga Khan pair of colts (Rajasaman and Siyouni) when coming hard and late to win French 2,000 Guineas last time out, looking for all the world as if he’d stay or even improve for 10 furlongs; That is only Group 1 winning form in field and if he can drop in and get gaps from a horrid draw, every chance.

Simon De Montfort: Won first 2 races in great style last year before running well below best in Gran Criterium; Has doubled up in listed/group company this year, coming with late runs each time, and not to be underestimated for in / form team although impossible to know how he will run on his first start for Al Zarooni team.

Tip Toe: Has been beaten by both No Risk At All and Bekhebad, so makes little appeal here in better race than last time.

Viscount Nelson: Looked like a very good horse on his first few starts, especially when landing the Hurricane Run Stakes under a hand ride; Probably exposed for the faster ground in Champagne Stakes and lost the race at the start in the Breeders Cup; Showed what he could do given ideal condition’s when staying on into third in Irish 2,000 Guineas and with a likely strong pace and plenty of cover, no reason he cannot run big race again.

Celtic Celeb: Has run well on all three starts this year, and is a listed winner, but has been well beaten by Simon De Montfort and Silver Pond on last 2 starts so hard to see him making real impact.

Classic Hero: Only had 2 runs and has been beaten in conditions company twice, so not an appealing proposition.

Royal Bench: Mauled field on his return on heavy ground but even though this might be unfair on him, a more accurate reflection of his talents may be his sixth placed effort in the Criterium International last year.

Russian Dream: Might be a doubtful stayer and even then, behind on form.

Pain Perdu: Has been caught in the Final Strides by Simon De Montfort on both his last starts, and although booking of Frankie Dettori inspires confidence, he still has to step up a world on his best starts.

Lumineux: Got better with time last year and fact that he now had got in head in front makes him a major contender if you see improvement off the back of his runs last year, which have form linked with many of the major contenders.

No Risk At All: Is a dual listed winner and holds some good form, having had Tip Toe and major contender Behkabad behind him in Prix Omnium; Rider reportedly lost whip last time and Christophe Soumillion on board is a great booking, so not discounted yet although he has work to do.

VERDICT: A hugely competitive race which looks like one of the strongest renewal over the new distance, in a race which has produced some exceptional sorts in recent times (Dalakhani, Sharmadal, Vision D’Etat). Let’s just hope that everything gets a clear run. It’s proabably not wise to go overboard about the form of the Dante which CAPE BALNCO won, as the runner up and wide – margin derby runner up Workforce had everything go against him that day , but there is a lot of improvement to come from that run judging on stable form, he has a decent draw and should go well. There is a lot of big value in an open race here, with all bar Cape Blanco being 9/2. I like the sound of an each/way bet on LOPE DE VEGA, as he should make a bold bid to complete the French Guineas/Derby double, is trained by a master of the game and has an excellent jockey in the plate. I see only the draw being his undoing. VISCOUNT NELSON may be the Ballydoyle second string but he can’t be discounted and is too big at 25/1 for me. Ice Blue represents a trainer who has a brilliant record, won his trial in cosy fashion and has Ryan Moore on board. It was hard not to pick him. You could make compelling cases for Bekhebad, Planteur, Samalgan, Simon De Montfort and even Lumieux and No Risk At All, who have both benefited greatly with jockey bookings.