Friday 18 June 2010

Royal Ascot Day 5

2.30 (Chesham Stakes) - A tricky race to weigh up with several of the runners untried over the trip and unexposed. The sure stayer JACKAROO (win) looked a smart prospect when making a winning debut and, whilst his stable can't be described as flying at the moment by its standards, they did have a double yesterday and he could be anything, so is the one to be with. King Torus bolted up very well last time, Created good impression on Leicester debut, being green early but then staying on powerfully to score by 5 lengths. His stable has won this the last 2 years and he should go well here. The interesting contender Zaidan shaped as though he'd improve for the run when winning over five furlongs at Doncaster, as is usually the case with juveniles from the yard. The form looks strong so more can be expected. Sonning Rose did well to win at Pontefract and she may just be underestimated in the market, while the stable’s Fork Handles impressed at Haydock but is bred to want further than this and looks second string on jockey booking. Clarke Lane shouldn’t be underestimate but was beaten last time, and ESKIMO(each/way) is my idea of a big contender too as should be suited by the step back in distance and Ryan Moore is no second string jockey. He bolted up last time too.

3.05 (Hardwicke Stakes) – It’s difficult to look beyond HARBINGER (win/nap) as the answer, seeing as he looked up to Group 1 standard when bolting up in his two runs, let alone Group 2’s and he’s got a lot going for him here. Having been talked of as a Derby candidate last year, he then went on to comfortably land a maiden at Chester's May meeting before connections sent him to Goodwood for the Group Three Gordon Stakes which again he took in his stride, at which point the sky was the limit. Subsequent disappointments in the Great Voltigeur and the St Simon Stakes at Newbury meant he ended the season on a low note but he looks better than ever as a four year old and can outclass these. Alainmaar has progressed well this term, landing the City & Suburban at Epsom in the manner of a Group race horse. Whether it’s this level remains to be seen. Wajiir holds some useful form but is well behind Harbinger based on his third in the Yorkshire Cup last time. Redwood’s 1m2f Sandown 2nd is a decent run but he ran a shocker last time, and seemingly only had the track as an excuse. Jukebox Jury is very smart but a 5lbs penalty makes things very hard and he did finish well beaten at Epsom in the Coronation Cup. Admittedly he didn’t have the ability of Fame And Glory to keep going off that pace (was one of 3 who were 10 lengths clear with 4 to go) so should do better. The advised e/w pick for value is DUNCAN, who wasn't beaten at all far in the Group One Coronation Cup last year and made a satisfactory return here last time. He lost a shoe and was wrong that day, so a stronger pace can help matters for a fitter horse.

3.50 (Golden Jubilee Stakes) – One of the best renewals for a long time. FLEETING SPRIT (each/way) has always gone well fresh and is easily good enough to run a big race here. She blitzed the July Cup field in exceptional style before being undone by only the ground in the Sprint Cup at Haydock, getting too bogged down to hold off Regal Parade. She got no run in the Prix L’Abbaye before simply not finishing the Breeders’ Cup Sprint too much at the end of the year. These are her optimum conditions. It was thought to choose between Kinsdale King and HAPPY ZERO as an each/way pick but the fact that the latter has run on turf for ages gets him the vote, despite the fact that on a line through Rocket Man, he should actually finish behind Kinsdale King. Kinsdale King’s win in the Golden Shaheen makes him a leading player here, so should be respected and can go well here, with the booking of Kieren Fallon is excellent news for his backer. One to take a note of in the market is Starspangledbanner, who holds some excellent form in Australia and ran a very good race in the Duke Of York Stakes last time. Having to give away weight did not help his cause and if he improves as much as the stable’s other runner’s have for their first runs, it would be no surprise to see him win. That brings us onto Showcasing, who ran a truly great race last time having been held up way too far off the pace and probably needing the run a lot too. He’s reported to have tightened up a lot so should go well, although this is a lot tougher than his last assignment. Main Aim should also come on for his win last time, but he will do well to reverse form with Showcasing. We have talked about every horse in that race but Prime Defender, but he did have race fitness, no penalty and first run that day, and this is infinitely tougher. 20/1 is big but he’ll do well to hold off Showcasing and co today. Marchand D’Or is coming back to his best (much like the winner of the King’s Stand, Equiano but this is infinitely harder and if he couldn’t win at his best, one has to argue how good he could be now. Abbaye winner Total Gallery doesn't have to carry a Group One penalty now but that only serves to make his run in Tuesday's Golden Jubilee all the more disappointing and he'll need to have recovered quickly although Kingsgate Native did so 2 years ago. The William Haggas pair High Standing and Triple Aspect are unexposed enough and deserve respect but this is going to be very hard for the both of them. It’s only 1 start since Regal Parade won the Sprint Cup but he just befitted from the soft ground that day. One should remember that Vernear actually beat Gokidova last season when winning the Foret and should strip fitter for a reappearance run but this is a tough ask and she did look awful when running last time. Alverta has a good record and is a huge price but has had trouble getting over and will be sharper for the run. This was harder than the mare’s races she’s been contesting in Australia.

4.25 (Hardwicke) – When GENKI (each/way) was stuck out about 5 wide on his seasonal debut at Newmarket (under second topweight) however well he ran would be a bonus and he did fantastic in the circumstances to come home fourth. He may well have won that day and the form has been well boosted, so it’s not hard to see him running a big race here. MEDICEAN MAN (each/way) was on the bridle for a long way last time and the fact the still had the race in safekeeping despite veering so badly right gives him a big chance here. Unraced since 2008,Laddies Poker Two, a late withdrawal after being antepost favourite for this race last year is a fascinating contender. You could take any winner from another 10, including Redford, Ingleby Lady, Jimmy Styles, Noverre To Go, Johannes, Edge Closer, Striking Sprit, Kaldoun Kingdom, Gallagher add especially Damien, but I’m happy enough with my top 2.

5.00 (Duke Of Edinburgh) - The top 2 or three will do for me. IMPOSING(win) is too promising to oppose seriously, so gets the vote as he’s likely to find more for a new trip after winning off a long layoff. The hold-up style of MAYTYR (each/way) should do him favours from stall 11 and that’s why he gets the vote over Submariner, Shamali, Classic Vintage and Sweet Lighting.

5.35 (Queen Alexandra) – Have the funniest feeling Cariccola shouldn’t be 18/1 and that neither should Balkan Knight but the 2 that I go with will probably be AAJEL and DESTUCHLAND (both each/way), as both seem to have class and stamina though the former might not stay and the latter might not handle the ground.

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