Wednesday, 2 June 2010

Investec Derby 2010

4.00 Epsom
Investec Derby (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £709,625

Pick: Jan Vermeer (win), Midas Touch (each/way)

Al Zir: Exploded into contention for top prizes with seamless demolitions of maiden field and two other rivals in conditions even as two; Ran a good race when third behind St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy but below that when ninth in Guineas; Reasons to think that he can do better but needs to improve a lot.

At First Sight: Has actually run very respectable races on both of his starts this season despite being used as a pacemaker on both occasions, coming third behind Midas Touch last time out and only getting beaten a nose by Puncher Clynch in Ballysax Stakes; Looks set to be pacemaker here.

Azmeel: Confirmed promise of his 2 year old form and second to Chabal when taking Chester's Dee stakes from Dancing David in good style last time out; Should improve from being trained to the minute for this race but will need to do so, for all the he’s perfectly capable of running a big race.

Bright Horizon: Broke his maiden in decent style when only just getting up in Curragh maiden last time but looks out of his depth.

Bullet Train: Lot to like about his one and only run last season (quietly fancied for Derby off the back of that) and was still green when collared in Newbury conditions event; Very impressive winner of Lingfield Derby Trial, leading all the way, finding more when asked and handling track in great style; More to come from him both mentally and physically, so will enter the shake - up.

Buzzword: Had a decent start to his career with a second and a win to his name, both at Windsor; Form has been well franked on both occasions and made eye-catching late progress to be 2nd behind runaway winner D**k Turpin in Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood; Was a bit disappointing when beaten by Shakespearian in the Solario, and put that right with good Group 3 win at Longchamp; Unable to confirm superiority over Siyouni in Group 1 and although he came out with credit when fifth in Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and fourth in the French 2,000 Guineas, he has a lot on his plate again here, for all that he is consistent.

Coordinated Cut: 16/1 chance for Derby before he made his easy winning debut at Doncaster St Ledger Festival and faced a different test altogether when well beaten second last in the RP Trophy (left Peter Chapple Hyam after); Undeniably impressive when coming to win sales race by a short head on debut after being practically stopped 2 out; Ran a good third in Dante but unlikely to reverse form with Workforce from that.

Hot Prospect: Worth another chance and shouldn’t be judged on his listed failure last time as a 2 year old; Beat the Autumn Stakes winner (form not great) previously and made a good return in good sales race but well beaten by Bullet Train last time.

Jan Vermeer: Looked a possible Derby horse on first couple of starts before romping home in decent renewal of Criterium International; Couldn’t have been more pleasing when winning Gallinule Stakes on return, hacking up under a 7lbs penalty; Should improve a lot for that and comes here with favourite’s chance.

Midas Touch; Progressive in three runs at two and ended the season with a decent fourth in Criterium International, well behind Jan Vermeer; Made a very good return when landing Derrinstown Derby Trial (which has supplied 3 winners, a second and 2 close thirds in the last 10 years); Second was a little reluctant, third went off too fast and fourth was a non – event but he had to make up 10 lengths in 3 furlongs and did it all in 2:02.50; Noting how bad stable form was at that time that was excellent run and he should love the step up to 10 furlongs.

Rewilding: Graduated from Andre Fabre's stable with flying colours when taking a Cocked Hat Stakes in great style visually and supplemented for this race off the back of that; While he impressed that day he was fully entitled to win as he did and will need to have come on a ton for experience if he’s to play a big part here (has been beaten in Group 2 company).

Ted Spread: Pulled out more and more to win Chester Vase in gutsy fashion, showing that he stays and is likely to handle this undulating track; Likeable and game sort who should come on for the run but form of that race has taken a few knocks.


Workforce: Made highly promising start to career when 6-length winner of 7f maiden at Goodwood on only start, quickening through from rear; That form has been boosted majorly since by second winning big event at Newmarket; May have been well beaten in Dante takes but winner does not go here, bit slipped out of his mouth and he will improve both mentally and physically for the run, so as good a chance as any.

VERDICT: A wide open Derby. The Ballydoyle team hold a strong hand in this, which could possibly have been stronger had it not been for the injury of St Nicholas Abbey and the deflection of Cape Blanco. The only group 1 winner in the field is JAN VERMEER, and he confirmed that promise when bolting up despite lack of fitness (had suffered training Setback) and a 7lbs penalty in the Gallinule Stakes. Admittedly the form of those in behind was nothing much to shout about, but he’ll come on for that and has a favourite’s chance. The Derrinstown Derby Trial has supplied 3 winners, a second and 2 close thirds in the last 10 years and based on that, MIADAS TOUCH is a good each/way bet. Admittedly the second was a little reluctant, third went off too fast and fourth was a non – event but he had to make up 10 lengths in 3 furlongs and did it all in 2:02.50, so noting how bad the stable form was at that time that was excellent run and he should love the step up to 12 furlongs. Workforce is miles better than his run in the Dante where his bit slipped and he didn’t know what to do, and with the winner not running here he must be given a big shout. Bullet Train was impressive in the Lingfield Derby trial leading all the way, finding more when asked and handling track in great style, and seeing as there is more to come from him both mentally and physically, he will enter the shake - up. While Rewilding impressed that day he was fully entitled to win as he did and will need to have come on a ton for experience if he’s to play a big part here (has been beaten in Group 2 company). Outsiders who could sing a surprise include Ted Spread, a gutsy winner of the Chester Vase, who won’t go down without a fight, Azmeel, an improving colt who will be trained to the minute and maybe Buzzword, a consistent an tough colt who’s worth his place here and was staying on very hard in the French 2,000 Guineas.

1 comment:

  1. That's more like it!!! Nice write-up - thanks for that. I'm still sticking with my guns on Ted Spread and Buzzword.

    ReplyDelete