Belmont Stakes 2010

11.32 Belmont

Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £370,370
Track (as of now, at 12:31GMT) Fast Distance - 1m4f Number of runners: 12

Picks: Ice Box (win), Stately Victor (each/way - show)
Dave In Dixie: Hasn't shown much since winning on debut at Del Mar; Although he was 2nd to Caracortado in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis that form has taken some heavy form knocks, while the distance might not suit him.

Spangled Star: Took six tries to win maiden and has been well beaten on both Graded tries since, so not making much appeal stepped up four furlongs from last time.

Uptowncharlybrown: Although he has struggled since going up in grade, he ran respectably when third last time in Lexington Stakes; Lot changed since then (new trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin and they are taking the blinkers off today) but stamina a major doubt and not really showing form to win this.

Make Music For Me: Although he was fourth in the Kentucky Derby, he was staying on past beaten horses and may have been flattered by that, not to mention fact that he still has to reverse form with Ice Box; Also doubtful stayer on breeding so while he has a lot going for him, some factors have to be taken on trust.

Fly Down: Long been considered for this race, and although he flopped badly on first graded start he has improved a ton since, trashing opposing Drosselmeyer (making him only runner to have won here, at this unique track); Also comes here having missed first 2 legs of Triple crown, making him fresher than most and with pedigree offering hope that he should stay well; Major contender.

Ice Box: Already proven in Grade 1 company, having won the Florida Derby and was making major ground at end of Kentucky Derby when last seen, having met with major interference beforehand; Way he ran in derby screamed that he was a 12 furlong horse and that may compensate for possible lack of pace; Form pick and should also handle possible track changes.

Drosselmeyer: May have been unlucky when third in Lousiana Derby but that race not working out well (major exception with winner) and hard to see him reversing form with Fly Down from last time.

Game On Dude: Only second start for yard when landing Grade 3 Lone Star Derby in decisive fashion but that form looks weak in this company and so do his other efforts; Trip might help but still asking a lot of him here, although it should be noted that stable had Lookin At Lucky to win Preakness.

Stately Victor: Looked badly exposed before fairly romping away with Blue Grass Stakes (one win from first 7); That form actually stands him in pretty good stead here (beat First Dude, Intractif and Make Music For Me, form lines which out him ahead of Fly Down and Ice Box if taken literally); Impossible to take that form literally as it was on synthetics and he suffered a bad reverse when eight I the Derby, taking his record on dirt to 0-4; However may well be worth another chance and does offer value.

Stay Put: Successful on the undercard of Kentucky Derby last time and while that confirms he could deal with a sloppy surface, that was in allowance company and he was 3/5 favourite; His other graded efforts leave a lot to be desired although if staying (suspect on pedigree to me) will close fast.

First Dude: Probably better than he showed when fifth in the Florida Derby and was only 1l behind Paddy O´Prado in the Blue Grass on synthetics; Continued improvement when setting a hot pace and still lasting out front in the Preakness, only to be beaten by Lookin At Lucky; Major chance although he has to go 3 furlongs longer today and had a tough race last time.

Interactif: Although he has raced mainly on synthetics and turf, he does go on dirt (won his maiden) wins in the Bourbon and Anticipation Stakes were impressively last year and his fourth in the Blue Grass was good when last seen; He should stay but hard to get a great deal of confidence.

VVERDICT: A race that has been opened by the absence of the other Triple Crown race winners. The strongest form in the race is held by ICE BOX for me and although a slower pace could prove his undoing, this longer trip will give him more time to close up. First Dude might get an easy lead and holds strong form too, but he had a tough race in the Preakness and stamina is a doubt. Fly Down make a lot of appeal having beaten First Dude, but I’ll pass him over in favour of the pick. Those who are looking at a big priced pick could do much worse than go for STATELY VICTOR, who has to be right there if handling the dirt for the first time today as everything else could potentially suit.