Oaks 2010

4.15 Epsom
Investec Oaks (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £198,695

Picks: Rumoush (win), Remember When (e/w)

Akdarena: Performed at a useful level last year but step up in trip and visor have been the making of her this season, leading all the way to hold off 99 rated Unity before routing good field of high class older fillies in Blue Wind Stakes, galloping field into the ground; Very real contender although she has to step up to 10f and it is unknown if she can lead for 12 furlongs, if she gets an easy lead.

Avaite: Created good impression when winning all 3 starts, none stronger than when she won the Muisora by a nose, having got no run from 2f out but still getting up in last furlong; Must hold every chance on that form, which gives her good chance of getting trip (slight breeding doubts).

Awe Inspring: Useful filly although she has taken some time to come to hand; Hacked up in Gowran Park race last time out and while she could and probably will improve, this looks like a step up too far in class.

Bikini Babe: Very head – strong as a 2 year old,, and was better than the bare form of her good results last year; Showed she had trained on with 2 very good runs in Meydan; Has been brushed aside by Colts in Classic trial and fillies in Musidora, so has a lot on her plate here.

Cabaret: Showed impressive speed and forwardness to fairly bolt up in Group 3 last season, before having no chance when saddle slipped in Prix Marcel Boussac; Stable are in better form now then when she flopped in Musidora but hard to say that she would have beaten Avaite and has something to prove now.

Celidh House: Impressed when overcoming tardy start to win 1m maiden at Nottingham on her only start at 2, and showed serious promise for connections who had Oaks winner Look Here 3 years ago; Suffered for racing to close to very strong pace when third in Oaks trial but was getting 3lbs from Timepiece (second that day) and needs to do a lot to win here.
Champagnelifestyle: Created really nice impression when winning first time up as a juvenile, beating a subsequent winner in the process before she bombed in Rockfel Stakes; Closing pretty fast on Cheshire Oaks winner Gertrude Bell last time but will need to improve an awful lot despite positive reports from connections.

Gertude Bell: Very game and quite progressive filly who built again on cosy reappearance win when holding off 3 horses in last furlong to win Cheshire Oaks; Could well improve again for longer trip nut will really need to do so.

Lady Lupus: Efforts looks moderate on basis and looks set to make the pace.

Marie De Medici: Posted a good effort to come runner – up in a Group 3 at Deauville after her maiden win; Then good fourth but well behind Timepiece; Since finished ahead of her and won listed event but this much harder and Timepiece got no run that day.

Meezenah: Behind 2 pattern winner on her two juvenile starts and improved no end for step up to 12 furlongs when trashing maiden field by 9 lengths; Impressive for all that was there were only 3 rivals in opposition and she was entitled to win as she liked.

Remember When: Still a maiden but has posted very promising efforts on all of her starts, first of all when coming second in strong maiden and then when running a good race on debut to come third behind Chinese White in good listed event; Took that form to new level when close fourth in Irish 1,000 Guineas, form which is arguably strongest in this field given the strong pace and class opposition; Sure to improve for experience and must go close here.

Rumoush: Impeccably-bred filly (half-sister to Ghanaati and Mawatheeq) who made a promising winning debut over 1m at Lingfield last November and reappeared very impressive winning debut in the Fielden Stakes (1m1f) beating reopposing Marie De Medici and Timepiece; Performed very well in 1,000 Guineas, finishing a strong second on her side due to massive track bias; That form very strong seeing as Music Show was close third in Irish 1,000 Guineas (just ahead of Remember When) and she would have gone very close to winning had that not been the case; Step up to 1m4f should really help and major chance today.

Shajahaa: Romped home in 10f Sandown maiden on only start so far, earning quotes of 10 – 14/1 for this; Obvious ability but will need to overcome inexperienced and form of that Sandown maiden not overly strong.

Snow Fairy: Improved for step up to 10 furlongs when showing impressive turn of foot to land the Height Of Fashion Stakes, beating the previous Oaks hope Pipette; That in considered impressive enough to Supplement and is capable of making her mark felt in good company, but this might be a step too far.

Timepiece: Shaped really well on her first 2 starts and was made Oaks favourite on back of her listed win over 1m; Shouldn’t be judged on her fourth in the Fielden Stakes as she was hampered at a crucial time but blew her chance to prove worthiness for favouritism when second behind Dyna Waltz in Lingfield Oaks trial last time(that horse does not repose); May have chased overly strong pace that day and is better than bare form but she will have to step up and has a lot to prove.

VERDICT: A competitive and tricky renewal of the Oaks, and there’s no doubting that Henry Cecil has the commanding hand here. The well regarded Timepice is better than her runs this season would suggest but she blew a good chance to win last time (should hold form with Ceilidh House) and might be a shade under-priced here, for all that she could still win. Avaite impressed hugely when overcoming a troubled passage to win the Musidora and that makes her a worthy favourite here, for all that might not have been the strongest renewal. However, looking in depth at the race, it’s noticeable that only 2 fillies in the top 5 have Group 1 form, those being RUMOUSH, an excellent 7th in the 1,000 Guineas when stuck on the far side, and REMEMBER WHEN, a very good fourth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas who should improve for the longer trip and experience. The former is the win bet, the latter is the e/w bet. Gertrude Bell is a likeable and improving filly (who should confirm Cheshire Oaks form) but will need to improve again, and Shajahaa and Meezean beat weakish fields in their maiden wins. Adkarena is a seriously fast improving filly but might be reliant on getting a lead (which will not be easy) and then she will have to lead for the whole 12 furlongs, a stiff test at any level.