Haskell Invitational 2010

10.43 Monmouth Park
Izod Haskell Invitational (Grade 1) (3YO only)
Winner $688,301

Pick: Lookin At Lucky (win)

Lookin At Lucky: Super talented horse as has been shown by his 4-5 record as a 2 year old but has met with trouble on four of his next 5 starts since, notably when sent off favourite for the Kentucky Derby, only to lose his chance when squeezed up against the rail, having started from the unfavourable inside stall; Showed what a class horse he is when cards fall right in Preakness last time and faces similar test here, so will be tough to beat.

Afleet Alex: Favourably treated by weights when winning Withers Stakes and ran respectable race when tables were turned in Spend A Buck Stakes and Pegasus Stakes last twice; Back on more level terms, but this is ten times harder than any of those races mentioned above.

Ice Box: Already proven in Grade 1 company, having won the Florida Derby and was making major ground at end of Kentucky Derby, having met with major interference beforehand, screaming that he was a 12 furlong horse; Ran an absolute stinker in Belmont last time and this is no easier, so hard to be confident about dropped straight back in it.

First Dude: Probably better than he showed when fifth in the Florida Derby and was only 1l behind Paddy O´Prado in the Blue Grass on synthetics; Continued improvement when setting a hot pace and still lasting out front in the Preakness, only to be beaten by Lookin At Lucky; Did his usual thing again when leading until last 110yds in Belmont and while drop in trip should help, one wonders when this will catch up with him.

Our Dark Knight: A three-length allowance winner at Monmouth June 19 making his stakes debut here, but shouldn’t be underestimated coming from Zito yard (which has useful yardsticks at this level); Nevertheless, this looks like a quality renewal and he will be hard pushed to make his mark.

Super Saver: Although a fine ride and sloppy track (combined with dream run inside the rail) helped him a lot when winning the Kentucky Derby, he still showed himself to be a rapidly improving colt and won with plenty in hand; Disappointing when bombing in the Preakness but only having 2 weeks between races (connections worried beforehand) plausible excuse and chasing extremely hot pace cannot have helped; Has a 78 day break to freshen him up, and almost surely going to take a big hand here if back to best.

Uptowncharlybrown: Although he has struggled since going up in grade, he ran respectably when third in Lexington Stakes; Lot changed since then (new trainer in Kieran McLaughlin and they have taken the blinkers off) but still has to improve on fifth in Belmont last time needs way more than just that and clear second string for McLaughlin yard.

Trappe Shot: The improving buzz horse coming into this race, undefeated in four starts this season for Kieran McLaughlin; overcame a poor start to win the Long Branch Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths on July 10 at Monmouth in his stakes debut and his first try at two turns and must be respected coming here.

VERDICT: A quality field with 4 proven Grade 1 horses all going for the win here, and another who is untested at this level. Super Saver will take some beating if back to his Derby winning best, even though everything fell for him that day. Ice Box is less easy to forgive after his terrible run last time in the Belmont, but if he was right he’d be right there. He wants them to go like scalded cats though, and First Dude comes into the picture on that note. He should be right there, and did his usual thing again when leading until last 110yds in Belmont and while the drop in trip should help, one wonders when this will catch up with him. Trappe shot is the improving buzz horse coming into this race, undefeated in four starts this season for Kieran McLaughlin. Overcame a poor start to win the Long Branch Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths on July 10 at Monmouth in his stakes debut and his first try at two turns and must be respected coming here. The last main contender is the best in my mind here though. LOOKIN AT LUCKY has always exuded class and deserved nothing more than his gutsy success in the Preakness last time. This is harder and his draw doesn’t help but he’s well up to the task here and is very fairly.