It’s a good supporting card that shouldn’t be ignored at Newmarket, with 2 races given particular notice. In the Sakhee Oh So Sharp Stakes (1.25) COCHAMABA (each/way) is a small filly from an unfashionable yard, but that’s where the negatives end. Her seconds to Lily Again and in particular, Fillies’ Mile third Theyskens Theory last time out at Goodwood sets a good standard, with her ability to handle soft ground a very good point (admittedly the front 2 in the market have won on soft. Havant was an impressive maiden debut winner (like stable´s last 3 winners of this race)but that was a weakish maiden, while Look At Me looks like a pattern type, but her form needs improving on as well. Kawalah was very impressive on debut but has never encountered soft ground, and that may be her undoing.
It’s a really tricky renewal of the Nayef Joel Stakes (1.55), with many middle ground runners. Premio Loco would have to be up there, but soft ground could blunt him, and I don’t particularly think Mabait really wants it either. Awazaan once looked like a very good prospect, but now seems to have lost it. Cityscape looks progressive and is clearly going to be there or thereabouts, while Alexandraos’s team are in fantastic form, but PENITENT was always a group horse in the making and should go very close here under Johnny Murtagh, with the cut in the ground crucial to his chances.
Recommendations
Each/way bet on Cochamaba in the Oh So Sharp Stakes (1.25)
Win bet on Penitent in the Nayef Joel Stakes (1.55)
Thursday, 30 September 2010
Shadwell Middle Park Stakes 2010
3.05 Newmarket
Shadwell Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £106,046
Pick: Dream Ahead (win)
Al Aasifh: Had been an easy winner at Haydock before not running his race in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot in Norfolk Stakes; Back to form in good style when taking Rose Bowl Stakes, staying on strongly from Cape To Rio; Morny disappointment was his second in a big race situation, which has to enter calculations.
Approve: Showed promise early on and has run to a high level since, winning the Norfolk Stakes, coming fourth in the July Stakes and third in Prix Robert Papin (unlucky to lose); Once again ran good race when second in Champagne Stakes last time and there to pick up pieces if front two fluff their lines.
Dream Ahead: Smashed into on debut and didn’t disappointing, looking group class colt with a future when bolting in by 9 lengths on debut, still green as he hung badly left when clear; Coped with fast – track to Group 1 in exemplary fashion when smoothly winning Prix Morny in greats style; Excellent chance in race of similar fashion.
Foghorn Leghorn: Showed promise on his first two runs, but regressed since and looks well short of what’s needed.
Irish Field: Seriously progressive horse, bolting up on first 2 starts in Spain and did hold Coventry entry until being withdrawn late on; Unlucky to get caught on line by Keratiya and improved for different tactics when impressive winner of Prix Robert Papin, quickening clear of Broox in impressive style; Ran flat in Morny and more needed now.
Samuel Morse: Created good impression when scoring here on debut and has progressed since, winning Marble Hill and coming fourth behind Strong Suit in Coventry; Has been rather disappointing considering that result since with seconds in Superlative and Anglesey Stakes (well beaten) and another step backwards when fifth in Phoenix Stakes; Improved on that with nice fourth in National Stakes, but drop back in trip could do his chances.
Strong Suit: Built on highly impressive debut success (made smooth progressive before drawing away nicely from Neebras; Railway Stakes winner 6l back in third) before winning Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, doing very well to overcome serious interference; Disappointing when only third in Phoenix but possibly not helped by being infront to be shot at; Will need to handle slower ground but every chance if doing so.
Temple Meads: Justified good support on debut at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas day when running away with decent 5f maiden and ran out a decisive and impressive winner of Super Sprint afterwards; Stepped up for the Gimcrack but ran freely and emptied out in last furlong, so surprise when he won Mill Reef Stakes so easily last time out (settled better); Every chance if stepping up again but this much tougher test and has work to do on formline with approve.
VERDICT: Approve, with Ryan Moore on board should run a good race and Temple Meads has recovered this former promise, but the ease in the ground may just give this to DREAM AHEAD, who looked top class in winning the Morny last time. Coventry winner Strong Suit is the main danger, especially if taking to the soft ground.
Shadwell Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £106,046
Pick: Dream Ahead (win)
Al Aasifh: Had been an easy winner at Haydock before not running his race in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot in Norfolk Stakes; Back to form in good style when taking Rose Bowl Stakes, staying on strongly from Cape To Rio; Morny disappointment was his second in a big race situation, which has to enter calculations.
Approve: Showed promise early on and has run to a high level since, winning the Norfolk Stakes, coming fourth in the July Stakes and third in Prix Robert Papin (unlucky to lose); Once again ran good race when second in Champagne Stakes last time and there to pick up pieces if front two fluff their lines.
Dream Ahead: Smashed into on debut and didn’t disappointing, looking group class colt with a future when bolting in by 9 lengths on debut, still green as he hung badly left when clear; Coped with fast – track to Group 1 in exemplary fashion when smoothly winning Prix Morny in greats style; Excellent chance in race of similar fashion.
Foghorn Leghorn: Showed promise on his first two runs, but regressed since and looks well short of what’s needed.
Irish Field: Seriously progressive horse, bolting up on first 2 starts in Spain and did hold Coventry entry until being withdrawn late on; Unlucky to get caught on line by Keratiya and improved for different tactics when impressive winner of Prix Robert Papin, quickening clear of Broox in impressive style; Ran flat in Morny and more needed now.
Samuel Morse: Created good impression when scoring here on debut and has progressed since, winning Marble Hill and coming fourth behind Strong Suit in Coventry; Has been rather disappointing considering that result since with seconds in Superlative and Anglesey Stakes (well beaten) and another step backwards when fifth in Phoenix Stakes; Improved on that with nice fourth in National Stakes, but drop back in trip could do his chances.
Strong Suit: Built on highly impressive debut success (made smooth progressive before drawing away nicely from Neebras; Railway Stakes winner 6l back in third) before winning Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, doing very well to overcome serious interference; Disappointing when only third in Phoenix but possibly not helped by being infront to be shot at; Will need to handle slower ground but every chance if doing so.
Temple Meads: Justified good support on debut at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas day when running away with decent 5f maiden and ran out a decisive and impressive winner of Super Sprint afterwards; Stepped up for the Gimcrack but ran freely and emptied out in last furlong, so surprise when he won Mill Reef Stakes so easily last time out (settled better); Every chance if stepping up again but this much tougher test and has work to do on formline with approve.
VERDICT: Approve, with Ryan Moore on board should run a good race and Temple Meads has recovered this former promise, but the ease in the ground may just give this to DREAM AHEAD, who looked top class in winning the Morny last time. Coventry winner Strong Suit is the main danger, especially if taking to the soft ground.
Adnams Cheveley Park Stakes 2010
2.30 Newmarket
Adnams Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £98,439
Pick: Margot Did (win & each/way)
Bold Bidder: Speedy precious 5f type who recorded back-to-back wins over 5f of late at Carlisle and Musselburgh; Another step in the right direction when second of 24 in Super Sprint, but might need more to take a hand here.
Hooray: Went some way to confirming big impression that she made on debut when eighth (behind Margot did but third on her side) and then third in Cheery Hinton Stakes; Shown very good form in winning Lowther and bolting up under penalty in sirenia, stakes, so the one to beat again.
Khor Sheed: Showed promise on taking debut and confirmed that when stepping up to take listed event on July course, scoring with something in hand; Has shown solid form in defeat and victory both times since, and shouldn’t be discounted.
Maqaasid: Showed immense promise on debut and realized that very quickly when winning Queen Mary Stakes last time, always cruising nicely and picking up smartly; Form of that race has fallen to pieces since though, and appeared not to stay in Lowther last time.
Margot Did: Smooth winner of first 2 races and bold bid in Albany Stakes at Royal meeting here, quickening a couple of lengths clear only to be collared late by Memory; That renewal working out well and solid efforts when collared late on by Sorayya in Princess Margret Stakes and Bevity in listed race latest; Soft ground unkown
Morirtita: Still open to progress even though this is her 7th start, having gone close in solid Nursery at Doncaster and not one to discount from this yard; Will need to improve on her 2 unplaced listed efforts although Group 3 fourth is improvement and soft ground brings everything into question.
Ragash: Beautifully-bred filly who followed maiden win with good run in Doncaster nursery, travelling strongly until getting swamped by 3 or 4 horses late on; Improved again when second in Firth Of Clyde Stakes last time, and more needed.
Rimth: Produced a fine turn of foot to win 16-runner maiden over 5f at Windsor in May (form worked out very well for the grade)and has since bettered that form in high grade, coming third in the Lowther (form worked out) and second in the Dick Poole Stakes; Ran a rubbish race (even though she got no cover) behind Ragash at Ayr last time and needs to improve.
Sharnberry: Has shown ability on dead ground, impressing when wiping floor easily with moderate opposition in dead-ground Lingfield maiden with a good bit to spare in August; More will come and Ryan Moore is a great booking on top, but there are a good number of classy fillies in this race.
Sweet Cecily: Messed around on debut but underwent complete transformation when making all in 6f maiden at Newmarket last month, beating Ragsah by 6 lengths; Has struggled a bit in better company, but this looks step too far on all known form.
Wild Wind: Shown very good form on her first 2 starts, showing plenty of promise and looked better than result when fifth in strong looking Moyglare; Good second in 7f dead-ground Group 3 (winner has only raced at pattern level) at the Curragh last weekend, and only drop back to 6f looks real issue; She can deal with the company.
VERDICT: A number of good 2 year old fillies line up here, in what will be a difficult race to win. Hooray sets a high standard, and market support for Massaquid suggests a better run is expected than last time, but MARGOT DID has been unlucky not to take her last 3 starts and must be there or thereabouts if handling the soft ground. Wild Wind could run well above over inflated odds, with her ability to handle dead ground proven.
Adnams Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £98,439
Pick: Margot Did (win & each/way)
Bold Bidder: Speedy precious 5f type who recorded back-to-back wins over 5f of late at Carlisle and Musselburgh; Another step in the right direction when second of 24 in Super Sprint, but might need more to take a hand here.
Hooray: Went some way to confirming big impression that she made on debut when eighth (behind Margot did but third on her side) and then third in Cheery Hinton Stakes; Shown very good form in winning Lowther and bolting up under penalty in sirenia, stakes, so the one to beat again.
Khor Sheed: Showed promise on taking debut and confirmed that when stepping up to take listed event on July course, scoring with something in hand; Has shown solid form in defeat and victory both times since, and shouldn’t be discounted.
Maqaasid: Showed immense promise on debut and realized that very quickly when winning Queen Mary Stakes last time, always cruising nicely and picking up smartly; Form of that race has fallen to pieces since though, and appeared not to stay in Lowther last time.
Margot Did: Smooth winner of first 2 races and bold bid in Albany Stakes at Royal meeting here, quickening a couple of lengths clear only to be collared late by Memory; That renewal working out well and solid efforts when collared late on by Sorayya in Princess Margret Stakes and Bevity in listed race latest; Soft ground unkown
Morirtita: Still open to progress even though this is her 7th start, having gone close in solid Nursery at Doncaster and not one to discount from this yard; Will need to improve on her 2 unplaced listed efforts although Group 3 fourth is improvement and soft ground brings everything into question.
Ragash: Beautifully-bred filly who followed maiden win with good run in Doncaster nursery, travelling strongly until getting swamped by 3 or 4 horses late on; Improved again when second in Firth Of Clyde Stakes last time, and more needed.
Rimth: Produced a fine turn of foot to win 16-runner maiden over 5f at Windsor in May (form worked out very well for the grade)and has since bettered that form in high grade, coming third in the Lowther (form worked out) and second in the Dick Poole Stakes; Ran a rubbish race (even though she got no cover) behind Ragash at Ayr last time and needs to improve.
Sharnberry: Has shown ability on dead ground, impressing when wiping floor easily with moderate opposition in dead-ground Lingfield maiden with a good bit to spare in August; More will come and Ryan Moore is a great booking on top, but there are a good number of classy fillies in this race.
Sweet Cecily: Messed around on debut but underwent complete transformation when making all in 6f maiden at Newmarket last month, beating Ragsah by 6 lengths; Has struggled a bit in better company, but this looks step too far on all known form.
Wild Wind: Shown very good form on her first 2 starts, showing plenty of promise and looked better than result when fifth in strong looking Moyglare; Good second in 7f dead-ground Group 3 (winner has only raced at pattern level) at the Curragh last weekend, and only drop back to 6f looks real issue; She can deal with the company.
VERDICT: A number of good 2 year old fillies line up here, in what will be a difficult race to win. Hooray sets a high standard, and market support for Massaquid suggests a better run is expected than last time, but MARGOT DID has been unlucky not to take her last 3 starts and must be there or thereabouts if handling the soft ground. Wild Wind could run well above over inflated odds, with her ability to handle dead ground proven.
Tuesday, 28 September 2010
Matchday 4 - Champions League 2010/11
Red Devils to face tough test against in form Los Che, while Nezzauuri look to bounce back -
It looks like a great Wednesday night in store, with several ties, including an absolute cracker that literally could go either way in Spain between two very big clubs.
After enduring a frustrating goalless draw at home to Rangers in their opening Champions League fixture, Manchester United face a tricky task away at in-form VALENCIA as they aim to pick up their first European win of the season.
They have have been far from convincing so far this season, drawing all three of their Premier League away games, and come into Wednesday’s fixture on the back of a 2-2 draw with Bolton Wanderers, a game in which they had to come from behind twice to salvage a point.
That was not the only setback for Sir Alex Ferguson’s men at the Reebok with both Wayne Rooney and Ryan Giggs picking up knocks which will rule them out of the trip to the Mestalla, crucial injures with won’t help given the style that Los Che play in.
It’s obvious that Man Utd won’t panic, but this is no easy place to go and injuries to key men could stop them, especially with Valencia having a fully fit squad.
The Los Che will also be full of confidence after taking 13 points from their opening five games of the season to top La Liga ahead of both Barcelona and Real Madrid.
They’ve made light of a summer exodus which saw a number of good players leave, including, avid Villa, David Silva, Carlos Marchena, Alexis and Nikola Zigic. However, they do look stronger than ever and will be able to call upon Juan Mata, Joaquin, Pablo Hernandez, Ever Banega and David Albeda, all positive signings.
I realize the match could go either way, but I’m willing to chance the home team at decent odds.
Over in Italy, holders INTER MILAN lost to a last minute goal at Roma & had to come from behind to draw their opening game, but it’s worth remembering that Roma came very close to doing the double against Inter last season (they lost the Italian Coppa final to Inter & were only beaten 3 points in the League, losing out in the final day).
They will have to be sharp to beat Werder Bremen, but the German side haven't won away in the Champions League in their last seven attempts, while Inter have only lost three of their last 24 in Europe at the San Siro.
To add to that, Inter can still call on a very strong squad despite the injures to Groan Pandev and Diego Miltio, with Samuel Eto’o, Wesley Snejider, Countinho and a full defence being available to them.
Over in Britain, Tottenham will find that Twente are no pushovers, so they are too short at 4/5, while I don’t think either Rangers or Bursaspor are up to much, so that game is really best left alone with Rangers looking ridiculously short at evs. Barca will have to work hard with Messi out on a tough trip to Rubin, while
Hapoel and Lyon lost at the weekend, so now is not the time to back either, while I’d fancy Benfica if they didn’t have to go to Schalke, with Copenhagen and Panatahnkios looking too close to call.
Recommendations
Inter to beat Werder Bremen (8/13 Boylesports, Betfred, Blue Sq, Paddy Power, 888 Sport, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill)
Valencia to beat Man Utd (6/4 General, 17/10 Betfred, Ladbrokes, William Hill)
Valencia draw no bet against Man Utd (5/6 general)
It looks like a great Wednesday night in store, with several ties, including an absolute cracker that literally could go either way in Spain between two very big clubs.
After enduring a frustrating goalless draw at home to Rangers in their opening Champions League fixture, Manchester United face a tricky task away at in-form VALENCIA as they aim to pick up their first European win of the season.
They have have been far from convincing so far this season, drawing all three of their Premier League away games, and come into Wednesday’s fixture on the back of a 2-2 draw with Bolton Wanderers, a game in which they had to come from behind twice to salvage a point.
That was not the only setback for Sir Alex Ferguson’s men at the Reebok with both Wayne Rooney and Ryan Giggs picking up knocks which will rule them out of the trip to the Mestalla, crucial injures with won’t help given the style that Los Che play in.
It’s obvious that Man Utd won’t panic, but this is no easy place to go and injuries to key men could stop them, especially with Valencia having a fully fit squad.
The Los Che will also be full of confidence after taking 13 points from their opening five games of the season to top La Liga ahead of both Barcelona and Real Madrid.
They’ve made light of a summer exodus which saw a number of good players leave, including, avid Villa, David Silva, Carlos Marchena, Alexis and Nikola Zigic. However, they do look stronger than ever and will be able to call upon Juan Mata, Joaquin, Pablo Hernandez, Ever Banega and David Albeda, all positive signings.
I realize the match could go either way, but I’m willing to chance the home team at decent odds.
Over in Italy, holders INTER MILAN lost to a last minute goal at Roma & had to come from behind to draw their opening game, but it’s worth remembering that Roma came very close to doing the double against Inter last season (they lost the Italian Coppa final to Inter & were only beaten 3 points in the League, losing out in the final day).
They will have to be sharp to beat Werder Bremen, but the German side haven't won away in the Champions League in their last seven attempts, while Inter have only lost three of their last 24 in Europe at the San Siro.
To add to that, Inter can still call on a very strong squad despite the injures to Groan Pandev and Diego Miltio, with Samuel Eto’o, Wesley Snejider, Countinho and a full defence being available to them.
Over in Britain, Tottenham will find that Twente are no pushovers, so they are too short at 4/5, while I don’t think either Rangers or Bursaspor are up to much, so that game is really best left alone with Rangers looking ridiculously short at evs. Barca will have to work hard with Messi out on a tough trip to Rubin, while
Hapoel and Lyon lost at the weekend, so now is not the time to back either, while I’d fancy Benfica if they didn’t have to go to Schalke, with Copenhagen and Panatahnkios looking too close to call.
Recommendations
Inter to beat Werder Bremen (8/13 Boylesports, Betfred, Blue Sq, Paddy Power, 888 Sport, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill)
Valencia to beat Man Utd (6/4 General, 17/10 Betfred, Ladbrokes, William Hill)
Valencia draw no bet against Man Utd (5/6 general)
Monday, 27 September 2010
Matchday 3 - Champions League 2010/11
Day 3 of the experimenting with football betting. We had a shocker on Saturday, with dire draws for Birmingham and Fulham, not to mention a low scoring 1-0 loss for Chelsea, but those things happen and I was always running a risk with so many specific bets.
All but 2 of Europe’s major teams struggled over the weekend in their respective leagues, REAL MADRID included, but Auxerre are probably one of the weakest teams in the competition and it would be considered disappointing for the Galacticos if they were unable to come away from Auxerre with all 3 points.
Auxerre showed defensive problems when conceding a two goal lead against Nancy to draw 2-2 and their squad looks lacking, with the team relying heavily on Benoit Pedretti and Irezuz Jelen, who may struggle to break down a Madrid defence that looks so much tighter than last year.
Over in Amsterdam, we have the first of the real glamour ties as Ajax face AC MILAN and if the latter can create the amount of chances they did against Genoa, they should take all the beating in what’s likely to be a close tie. Milan were slow to click against Genoa but in the end were full value for their 1-0 win (which arguably should have been more) and managed to keep the Genoa team from scoring when they were on top, a tactic which will need repeating in Amsterdam.
Ajax played very well against Twente but let things slip in the second half and Milan may just have too much quality for them in the end.
The only other pick of the night comes in Group H, where BRAGA, who approached Arsenal with a rather tactically naive game at the Emirates, look value at 8/13 with the draw in your favour at home.
Make no mistake, The "Archbishops" are a tough nut to crack at Estádio AXA as they proved when beating Naval there on Friday. They were comfortable 3-1 winners and have the firepower to make it a difficult night for their Ukrainian opponents.
In the other games, Chelsea should win easily against Marsellie but are no value and it;s not going to easy predicting the score, Spartak are way too short to beat Zilina, Bayern aren’t value after their recent issues, with the same going for Arsenal while Roma are just too short after the confidence boosting win to Inter a few days ago, which they were rather lucky to get in all honesty.
Recommendations
Real Madrid to beat Auxerre (8/13 Boylesport, Betfred, William Hill)
AC Milan draw no bet against Ajax (10/11 Ladbrokes, Skybet, Coral)
Braga draw no bet against Shaktar (4/6 SportingBet, Blue Sq, 888 Sport, William Hill)
All but 2 of Europe’s major teams struggled over the weekend in their respective leagues, REAL MADRID included, but Auxerre are probably one of the weakest teams in the competition and it would be considered disappointing for the Galacticos if they were unable to come away from Auxerre with all 3 points.
Auxerre showed defensive problems when conceding a two goal lead against Nancy to draw 2-2 and their squad looks lacking, with the team relying heavily on Benoit Pedretti and Irezuz Jelen, who may struggle to break down a Madrid defence that looks so much tighter than last year.
Over in Amsterdam, we have the first of the real glamour ties as Ajax face AC MILAN and if the latter can create the amount of chances they did against Genoa, they should take all the beating in what’s likely to be a close tie. Milan were slow to click against Genoa but in the end were full value for their 1-0 win (which arguably should have been more) and managed to keep the Genoa team from scoring when they were on top, a tactic which will need repeating in Amsterdam.
Ajax played very well against Twente but let things slip in the second half and Milan may just have too much quality for them in the end.
The only other pick of the night comes in Group H, where BRAGA, who approached Arsenal with a rather tactically naive game at the Emirates, look value at 8/13 with the draw in your favour at home.
Make no mistake, The "Archbishops" are a tough nut to crack at Estádio AXA as they proved when beating Naval there on Friday. They were comfortable 3-1 winners and have the firepower to make it a difficult night for their Ukrainian opponents.
In the other games, Chelsea should win easily against Marsellie but are no value and it;s not going to easy predicting the score, Spartak are way too short to beat Zilina, Bayern aren’t value after their recent issues, with the same going for Arsenal while Roma are just too short after the confidence boosting win to Inter a few days ago, which they were rather lucky to get in all honesty.
Recommendations
Real Madrid to beat Auxerre (8/13 Boylesport, Betfred, William Hill)
AC Milan draw no bet against Ajax (10/11 Ladbrokes, Skybet, Coral)
Braga draw no bet against Shaktar (4/6 SportingBet, Blue Sq, 888 Sport, William Hill)
Saturday, 25 September 2010
Supporting Races - 25th September 2010
Deloitte Rosemary H'Cap (1.55) -
Only one each/way pick here, and that's LONG LASHES who looked right on the way back when a close second last time.
Totesport.com Challenge Cup (3.40) -
Had an e/w on (order of preference):
Sarasota Sunshine - Trained by Jeremy Noseda and is a filly that has been in superb form this season and comes here still on the upgrade, headgear having helped a lot.An even bigger factor for me is that Johnny Muragh is riding for Jeremy Noseda, whos's having a good season. Noseda and jockey Johnny Murtagh have a superb record at the track together and even more so with older horses – 3 wins from 7 for a 42% S/R. whenever this 2 team up they seem to do the business; an overall record of 13/42 (31% S/R) and an even stronger record on the older horses of 8/18 (44% S/R) suggest they mean buinsness and she gets the vote.
Axiom - Jockey Fallon is in superb run at the moment and he has hade more than one choice of ride in this race. Axiom made up into a smart performer last year, finishing off with a second in this contest (only just higher in weights) and is one to take very seriously having returned to his best when winning at Goodwood last time.
Side Glance - Much improved when scooting clear of his rivals off a 12 lb lower mark over C&D in July and was very impressive in landing odds at Chester last time, with Redford well beaten latest.
Miles & Morrison October Stakes (4.50) -
RAINFALL has sometime to prove and isn't one to lump on at a shortish price, but she has performed at the highest level this year and returns to the scene of her greatest triumph today having landed the Jersey Stakes here at Royal Ascot back in June.
Only one each/way pick here, and that's LONG LASHES who looked right on the way back when a close second last time.
Totesport.com Challenge Cup (3.40) -
Had an e/w on (order of preference):
Sarasota Sunshine - Trained by Jeremy Noseda and is a filly that has been in superb form this season and comes here still on the upgrade, headgear having helped a lot.An even bigger factor for me is that Johnny Muragh is riding for Jeremy Noseda, whos's having a good season. Noseda and jockey Johnny Murtagh have a superb record at the track together and even more so with older horses – 3 wins from 7 for a 42% S/R. whenever this 2 team up they seem to do the business; an overall record of 13/42 (31% S/R) and an even stronger record on the older horses of 8/18 (44% S/R) suggest they mean buinsness and she gets the vote.
Axiom - Jockey Fallon is in superb run at the moment and he has hade more than one choice of ride in this race. Axiom made up into a smart performer last year, finishing off with a second in this contest (only just higher in weights) and is one to take very seriously having returned to his best when winning at Goodwood last time.
Side Glance - Much improved when scooting clear of his rivals off a 12 lb lower mark over C&D in July and was very impressive in landing odds at Chester last time, with Redford well beaten latest.
Miles & Morrison October Stakes (4.50) -
RAINFALL has sometime to prove and isn't one to lump on at a shortish price, but she has performed at the highest level this year and returns to the scene of her greatest triumph today having landed the Jersey Stakes here at Royal Ascot back in June.
Friday, 24 September 2010
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Sony) 2010
Ascot 4.15
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Sony) (Group 1) (Rnd) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £172,075
Pick: Makfi (win)
Bushman: Lightly raced and good sort who has always been talented and finally put it together at pattern level earlier this year, winning listed contest and then Diomed Stakes; Built on that even when second in York Stakes last time but likely to be found wanting at this level, as was shown by his last placed finish in the Juddmonte International.
Rip Van Winkle: Finally put it all together last season, when putting together string of high class efforts before romping away with Sussex last year, before using sheer class to put him through this very race, beating Zacinto; Been hit and miss since but valid excuses having been over the top at Breeder’s Cup, before needing the run when sixth in Queen Anne; Ran a very good race when close second to Canford Cliffs and showed best when getting up in last moments of International Stakes; Well beaten by Cape Blanco in Irish Champion but this more suitbale test; Only worry is that he may have lost all freshness.
Air Chief Marshal: Has won races this season, incuding doing a double in 2 weeks culiminating in a Group 3; Is here as pacemaker though.
Beethoven: Grew with every run last year, eventually winning the Dewhurst and was unlucky when shafted in Breeder’s Cup at first turn; Had done well in tough tasks this season and same thing set to happen again.
Hearts Of Fire: Got much better with experience as a 2 year old despite being forward enough to win Brocklesby on debut, also improving for step up in trip when landing Group 1 over a mile in Italy; Dissapointed on comeback run in 2,000 Guineas but showed that all wrong when third in St James Palace Stakes (having been short for room at a crucial stage); Has been well below that since though, and this toughest test he's ever faced (already beaten by Makfi).
Makfi: Impressed when taking his maiden and confirmed promise when taking Prix Dejibel in impressive style before causing major shock when confirming himself colt out of top drawer when landing 2,000 Guineas; Disappointing when 7th in St James Palace last time but excuses for that, having had a throat infection; Didn’t get the best of runs at all in the race, having been carried out wide and he was beaten less than 5 lengths in the end; Proved his class when beating Goldikova and Paco Boy in stylsih fashion last time and can confirm himself best miler in Europe.
Poet’s Voice: Showed plenty of potential for all that he was very keen in the early part of last season (Broke out of stalls and managed to lose the Acomb Stakes by pulling to hard); Showed what he could do when beating Viscount Nelson in Champagne Stakes only to then run below his best when fourth in Middle Park; Finally back to form when wining Celebration Mile easily, and while he had little to beat he did it well and cannot be discarded.
Red Jazz: Made all in Free Handicap at Newmarket in April and has come a long way since then, bettering that effort every time in defeat; Unlucky to be caught on all six occasions sine but onyl runs rleative to form of race and 7f is defintely his trip, so tough task on plate.
VERDICT: Back over his preferred trip, expect a bold defence of his crown from Rip Van Winkle, but he'll have a tough nut to crack in the shape of MAKFI, who proved himself a top-class miler at Deauville and will be suited by cut. Poet's Voice deserves a good mention.
Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Sony) (Group 1) (Rnd) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £172,075
Pick: Makfi (win)
Bushman: Lightly raced and good sort who has always been talented and finally put it together at pattern level earlier this year, winning listed contest and then Diomed Stakes; Built on that even when second in York Stakes last time but likely to be found wanting at this level, as was shown by his last placed finish in the Juddmonte International.
Rip Van Winkle: Finally put it all together last season, when putting together string of high class efforts before romping away with Sussex last year, before using sheer class to put him through this very race, beating Zacinto; Been hit and miss since but valid excuses having been over the top at Breeder’s Cup, before needing the run when sixth in Queen Anne; Ran a very good race when close second to Canford Cliffs and showed best when getting up in last moments of International Stakes; Well beaten by Cape Blanco in Irish Champion but this more suitbale test; Only worry is that he may have lost all freshness.
Air Chief Marshal: Has won races this season, incuding doing a double in 2 weeks culiminating in a Group 3; Is here as pacemaker though.
Beethoven: Grew with every run last year, eventually winning the Dewhurst and was unlucky when shafted in Breeder’s Cup at first turn; Had done well in tough tasks this season and same thing set to happen again.
Hearts Of Fire: Got much better with experience as a 2 year old despite being forward enough to win Brocklesby on debut, also improving for step up in trip when landing Group 1 over a mile in Italy; Dissapointed on comeback run in 2,000 Guineas but showed that all wrong when third in St James Palace Stakes (having been short for room at a crucial stage); Has been well below that since though, and this toughest test he's ever faced (already beaten by Makfi).
Makfi: Impressed when taking his maiden and confirmed promise when taking Prix Dejibel in impressive style before causing major shock when confirming himself colt out of top drawer when landing 2,000 Guineas; Disappointing when 7th in St James Palace last time but excuses for that, having had a throat infection; Didn’t get the best of runs at all in the race, having been carried out wide and he was beaten less than 5 lengths in the end; Proved his class when beating Goldikova and Paco Boy in stylsih fashion last time and can confirm himself best miler in Europe.
Poet’s Voice: Showed plenty of potential for all that he was very keen in the early part of last season (Broke out of stalls and managed to lose the Acomb Stakes by pulling to hard); Showed what he could do when beating Viscount Nelson in Champagne Stakes only to then run below his best when fourth in Middle Park; Finally back to form when wining Celebration Mile easily, and while he had little to beat he did it well and cannot be discarded.
Red Jazz: Made all in Free Handicap at Newmarket in April and has come a long way since then, bettering that effort every time in defeat; Unlucky to be caught on all six occasions sine but onyl runs rleative to form of race and 7f is defintely his trip, so tough task on plate.
VERDICT: Back over his preferred trip, expect a bold defence of his crown from Rip Van Winkle, but he'll have a tough nut to crack in the shape of MAKFI, who proved himself a top-class miler at Deauville and will be suited by cut. Poet's Voice deserves a good mention.
Fillies' Mile 2010
3.05 Ascot
Meon Valley Stud Fillies' Mile (Group 1) (Rnd) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £137,660
Pick: White Moonstone (win)
Date With Destiny: Came into racing with big reputation, being the only offspring of George Washington and fetching 320,000Gns at yearling sales; Justified hype with smooth success in Newbury maiden; Bitterly dissapoitning even if soft ground did not suit last time out; Can be better than that but this tough test.
Fork Handles: Very takingly bred filly who should improve with experience (by Doyen out of Natalie Jay) so possibly surprise to see her win 4 runner race on debut; Was a satisfactory third at Deauville last time but this so much tougher.
Theyskens Theory: Could hardly have been more impressive in winning her maiden, making all in very smart time and drawing away from a subsequent winner by 5 lengths; Improved again to take Prestige Stakes in excllent style last time, drawing away steadily; Will take another big step forward here, and major player.
Together: Very well bred filly (By Gaileo out of same Pennekamp mare that foaled Jan Vermeer) who needed experience on debut; Made mandatory progress to win 7f maiden but stepped up massively when quickening nicely and galloping on to land Silver Flash Stakes' Hasn't progressed as expected, throwing away Debutante Stakes by hanging to her right before failing to reverse that form in Moyglare Stakes; Step up to 1m could see a different filly but will have to step up considerably on what she's done so far.
Traffic Sister: Half sister to prolific winner Traffic Guard, who started career with same stable; Improved on debut effort when fifth in maiden last time but likely to struggle.
White Moonstone: Made a decent debut when getting better of more experienced Florestans Match at Ascot, coming like a train down stands rail; Improved again when making it 2 from 2 in style as she landed Sweet Solera Stakes; Confirmed class and promise whem romping home in May Hill Stakes last time, and should be tremendously hard to beat here.
VERDICT: If all goes to form, this “should” revolve around the 2 Guineas favourities. While Theysken's Theory may have acheived more than WHITE MOONSTONE in winning the Presitge Stakes, the latter has won a Group 2 and 3, and may find the race run to suit if her rival adopts her normal front-running role. Together should really like the step up to a mile.
Meon Valley Stud Fillies' Mile (Group 1) (Rnd) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £137,660
Pick: White Moonstone (win)
Date With Destiny: Came into racing with big reputation, being the only offspring of George Washington and fetching 320,000Gns at yearling sales; Justified hype with smooth success in Newbury maiden; Bitterly dissapoitning even if soft ground did not suit last time out; Can be better than that but this tough test.
Fork Handles: Very takingly bred filly who should improve with experience (by Doyen out of Natalie Jay) so possibly surprise to see her win 4 runner race on debut; Was a satisfactory third at Deauville last time but this so much tougher.
Theyskens Theory: Could hardly have been more impressive in winning her maiden, making all in very smart time and drawing away from a subsequent winner by 5 lengths; Improved again to take Prestige Stakes in excllent style last time, drawing away steadily; Will take another big step forward here, and major player.
Together: Very well bred filly (By Gaileo out of same Pennekamp mare that foaled Jan Vermeer) who needed experience on debut; Made mandatory progress to win 7f maiden but stepped up massively when quickening nicely and galloping on to land Silver Flash Stakes' Hasn't progressed as expected, throwing away Debutante Stakes by hanging to her right before failing to reverse that form in Moyglare Stakes; Step up to 1m could see a different filly but will have to step up considerably on what she's done so far.
Traffic Sister: Half sister to prolific winner Traffic Guard, who started career with same stable; Improved on debut effort when fifth in maiden last time but likely to struggle.
White Moonstone: Made a decent debut when getting better of more experienced Florestans Match at Ascot, coming like a train down stands rail; Improved again when making it 2 from 2 in style as she landed Sweet Solera Stakes; Confirmed class and promise whem romping home in May Hill Stakes last time, and should be tremendously hard to beat here.
VERDICT: If all goes to form, this “should” revolve around the 2 Guineas favourities. While Theysken's Theory may have acheived more than WHITE MOONSTONE in winning the Presitge Stakes, the latter has won a Group 2 and 3, and may find the race run to suit if her rival adopts her normal front-running role. Together should really like the step up to a mile.
Royal Lodge Stakes 2010
2.30 Ascot
Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Rnd) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £70,962
Pick: Frankel
Eskimo: Confirmed debut promise when justifying very short odds in facile style at Tipperary, before not getting best of runs in Cesham Stakes here at Royal Meeting; Tounge tie and Rysan Morore may get best out of him but hard to see him making major impact; Stable's no'2.
Frankel: Very highly regarded sort who made serious impression when earning quotes of 25-1 for next year's Derby for the Guineas when winning a better-than-average maiden in style at Newmarket on debut; Those qoutes shortened with easy demoltion of 2 rivlas in Doncater condtions event last time, but looks major prospect.
Happy Today: Shaped better than result when fourth on debut at Newmarket last month (strong form) prior to routine win at Bath; Lot more needed but surely not done improving for team with excellent record in these events this year.
Klammer: Was impressive in landing first 2 starts before his Coventry fifth and has done well since, coming solid third to King Torus before then landing Listed event in France; Most exposed of sixtet but holds soild level and not to be underestimated.
Silm Shadey: Is getting better with every start, coming good fourth behind Wottoon Bassett last tme; Good deal more needed here though, espcially upped to 1m,
Treasure Beach: Progressed with each start and was unlucky not to complete hat-trick in same nursery stablemate Joshua Tree was second in before winning this last year; Could well come on again, and major player given stable's record with this type in this contest.
VERDICT: Aidan O'Brien has won this race with “handicappers”, so Treasure Beach demands respect, while I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Klammer entirely. That said, I'd be very surprised if FRANKEL got beat here on his rise to the top, having set a ridiculously fast time considering he had nothing to race with on his last outing at Doncaster.
Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Rnd) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £70,962
Pick: Frankel
Eskimo: Confirmed debut promise when justifying very short odds in facile style at Tipperary, before not getting best of runs in Cesham Stakes here at Royal Meeting; Tounge tie and Rysan Morore may get best out of him but hard to see him making major impact; Stable's no'2.
Frankel: Very highly regarded sort who made serious impression when earning quotes of 25-1 for next year's Derby for the Guineas when winning a better-than-average maiden in style at Newmarket on debut; Those qoutes shortened with easy demoltion of 2 rivlas in Doncater condtions event last time, but looks major prospect.
Happy Today: Shaped better than result when fourth on debut at Newmarket last month (strong form) prior to routine win at Bath; Lot more needed but surely not done improving for team with excellent record in these events this year.
Klammer: Was impressive in landing first 2 starts before his Coventry fifth and has done well since, coming solid third to King Torus before then landing Listed event in France; Most exposed of sixtet but holds soild level and not to be underestimated.
Silm Shadey: Is getting better with every start, coming good fourth behind Wottoon Bassett last tme; Good deal more needed here though, espcially upped to 1m,
Treasure Beach: Progressed with each start and was unlucky not to complete hat-trick in same nursery stablemate Joshua Tree was second in before winning this last year; Could well come on again, and major player given stable's record with this type in this contest.
VERDICT: Aidan O'Brien has won this race with “handicappers”, so Treasure Beach demands respect, while I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss Klammer entirely. That said, I'd be very surprised if FRANKEL got beat here on his rise to the top, having set a ridiculously fast time considering he had nothing to race with on his last outing at Doncaster.
Chelsea and Inter to take Massive step towards Title - Football Preview 25th September
A very good week for the blog, in which Jo scored for us at 2/1, Inter trashed Bari at 4/7, Birmingham beat MK Dons at4/9 and Ipswich gave us the biggest win of all at Millwall, coming in at a tasty 2/1. Athletico let us down and Man City were woeful in defeat, but you can’t win them all.
It’s been a great week in the Carling Cup, which has defied its “mickey mouse competition” nickname with some cracking games, including shock defeats for a number of Premier League teams.
I can’t think that fans of either Manchester City or CHELSEA would be too disappointed with defeats for their third teams in preparation for this game, but there’s no questioning that this League encounter will be a lot more toughly contested.
Chelsea come here having waltzed their way through an opening set of fixtures which proved as straightforward as they appeared on paper, having plundered an average of 4.2 goals per game and conceding just once in a perfect start.
Things will be tougher here, but they beat their nearest five competitors in the table both home and away last season and there’s no reason to think they can’t do it again with them on such a good roll coming into the season.
Man City will be very tough opponents make no mistake, but there is an argument for saying that Mancini’s side are still to gel and compliment each other properly, and while some of their displays have been very good (notably a 3-0 win over Liverpool) some have been very worrying, paticiuarly an inability to beat Blackburn at home, a sign which suggests they may not be able to create enough against Chelsea, a statement backed up by the fact they have failed to score in 5 of their last 10 league games.
FLORENT MALOUDA has scored 6 league goals this season, and may just be in the right position to net again should he start (most likely) on Saturday. In any case, 2/1 could be too good to miss.
And on the goals point too, with Man City's defensive squad problems and Chelsea' attacking prowess, OVER 2.5 GOALS might be the way to go, particularly when going through the archive, as you'll find the last five games involving Roberto Mancini and Carlo Ancelotti have all gone over 2.5 goals. In all cases both teams got on the scoreline.
Over at St Andrews, the comfort of playing at home should see BIRMINGHAM start as favourites against a rather wayward Wigan side. They have not lost at St Andrews in all competitions and produced a dominant display in midweek to dispose of League One side MK Dons.
What was more pleasing for manager Alex McLeish was the performance of summer signings Alexander Hleb and Nikola Zigic, who both scored their first goals for the club, and Jean Beausejour, who made his home debut and created two of the three goals.
Wigan may spring a shock, as their in their last away outing against Tottenham Hotspur they managed to record a 1-0 victory and if in the same mood could take some stopping, That said, their defending was shocking against Man City and if Birmingham's side gel as well as they did in midweek, they will need to be watertight.
Neither Fulham boss Mark Hughes or his Everton counterpart David Moyes are happy men (Hughes is still fuming about the challenge by Stoke's Andy Wilkinson on Moussa Dembele in Tuesday's League Cup tie, while Moyes is wracking his brains to work out why his Toffees side have had such a slow start this season) but I reckon that a win for FULHAM might lift his spirits more.
The visit of struggling Everton is the perfect chance to kick start the season, with Fulham having a very strong home record and being unbeaten this season. While Fulham's squad is beginning to get down to the bare bones (Zoltan Gera may have to be deployed as an emergency striker) Everton's top scorer Tim Cahill is rated 50/50 to play after recent knee trouble and Leon Osman is also a doubt, 2 crucial blows. In any case, they seem to be struggling for form anyway.
And last but not least,a struggling albeit reviving West Ham might not be able to cope with TOTTENHAM, who come here with a much stronger team then when having lost to Arsenal in extra time of the League Cup, with midfielder Luka Modric having overcome a foot injury, while Rafael van der Vaart and Vedran Corluka are also fit to play.
West Ham are showing signs of revival but Tottenham showed the grit that a top 4 side shows when they need to and they should be able to see things out at Upton Park.
Over in Italy, treble winners INTER MILAN have made a stuttering start to the season but are getting better with every game, The Nezzazuri trashing Bari 4-0 in the San Siro in midweek to take a 1 point lead at the top of the table having played 4 games, Diego Milito and Samuel Eto'o scoring a brace each in what was a superb performance.
Roma have been struggling both in the league and in the Champions League since the start of the season, and things went from bad to worse in midweek when they were defeated by newly promoted Brescia. Referring decisions cost them that game though, and it's going to be a lot harder for Inter to get 3 points here, but they have the quality to do so and must be growing in confidence, with SAMUEL ETO'O publicly declaring his intent to play. He's been in great form this season, and may be there to notch again should Inter need him.
In Spain, Sporting Gijon threw away a 2 goals lead last time they were at home against Bilbao, and against VALENCIA the outcome might be the same, especially seeing as they have won four of their first 5 games and have made a superb start to the season all round. Los Che were relatively unimpressive away from home last season, considering their form at the Mestalla, drawing 1-1 in Gijon, but are coming on a real form run and must be taking maximum points here if they are to be challenging Real and Barca anywhere this season.
Recommendations
Chelsea to beat Man City (5/6 Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral)
Florent Malouda to score anytime (11/4 extrabet, 2/1 elsewhere)
Over 2.5 goals (evs Bet365)
Birmingham to beat Wigan (5/6 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Paddy Power, William Hill, Coral)
Fulham to beat Everton (7/4 Bet365, Victor Chandler, Blue Sq, 888 Sport)
Tottenham to beat West Ham (11/10 general)
Inter to beat Roma (13/10 Betfred)
Eto'o to score anytime (8/5 Bet365)
Valencia to beat Sporting Gijon (13/10 Blue Sq, 888 Sport)
Good luck to all.
It’s been a great week in the Carling Cup, which has defied its “mickey mouse competition” nickname with some cracking games, including shock defeats for a number of Premier League teams.
I can’t think that fans of either Manchester City or CHELSEA would be too disappointed with defeats for their third teams in preparation for this game, but there’s no questioning that this League encounter will be a lot more toughly contested.
Chelsea come here having waltzed their way through an opening set of fixtures which proved as straightforward as they appeared on paper, having plundered an average of 4.2 goals per game and conceding just once in a perfect start.
Things will be tougher here, but they beat their nearest five competitors in the table both home and away last season and there’s no reason to think they can’t do it again with them on such a good roll coming into the season.
Man City will be very tough opponents make no mistake, but there is an argument for saying that Mancini’s side are still to gel and compliment each other properly, and while some of their displays have been very good (notably a 3-0 win over Liverpool) some have been very worrying, paticiuarly an inability to beat Blackburn at home, a sign which suggests they may not be able to create enough against Chelsea, a statement backed up by the fact they have failed to score in 5 of their last 10 league games.
FLORENT MALOUDA has scored 6 league goals this season, and may just be in the right position to net again should he start (most likely) on Saturday. In any case, 2/1 could be too good to miss.
And on the goals point too, with Man City's defensive squad problems and Chelsea' attacking prowess, OVER 2.5 GOALS might be the way to go, particularly when going through the archive, as you'll find the last five games involving Roberto Mancini and Carlo Ancelotti have all gone over 2.5 goals. In all cases both teams got on the scoreline.
Over at St Andrews, the comfort of playing at home should see BIRMINGHAM start as favourites against a rather wayward Wigan side. They have not lost at St Andrews in all competitions and produced a dominant display in midweek to dispose of League One side MK Dons.
What was more pleasing for manager Alex McLeish was the performance of summer signings Alexander Hleb and Nikola Zigic, who both scored their first goals for the club, and Jean Beausejour, who made his home debut and created two of the three goals.
Wigan may spring a shock, as their in their last away outing against Tottenham Hotspur they managed to record a 1-0 victory and if in the same mood could take some stopping, That said, their defending was shocking against Man City and if Birmingham's side gel as well as they did in midweek, they will need to be watertight.
Neither Fulham boss Mark Hughes or his Everton counterpart David Moyes are happy men (Hughes is still fuming about the challenge by Stoke's Andy Wilkinson on Moussa Dembele in Tuesday's League Cup tie, while Moyes is wracking his brains to work out why his Toffees side have had such a slow start this season) but I reckon that a win for FULHAM might lift his spirits more.
The visit of struggling Everton is the perfect chance to kick start the season, with Fulham having a very strong home record and being unbeaten this season. While Fulham's squad is beginning to get down to the bare bones (Zoltan Gera may have to be deployed as an emergency striker) Everton's top scorer Tim Cahill is rated 50/50 to play after recent knee trouble and Leon Osman is also a doubt, 2 crucial blows. In any case, they seem to be struggling for form anyway.
And last but not least,a struggling albeit reviving West Ham might not be able to cope with TOTTENHAM, who come here with a much stronger team then when having lost to Arsenal in extra time of the League Cup, with midfielder Luka Modric having overcome a foot injury, while Rafael van der Vaart and Vedran Corluka are also fit to play.
West Ham are showing signs of revival but Tottenham showed the grit that a top 4 side shows when they need to and they should be able to see things out at Upton Park.
Over in Italy, treble winners INTER MILAN have made a stuttering start to the season but are getting better with every game, The Nezzazuri trashing Bari 4-0 in the San Siro in midweek to take a 1 point lead at the top of the table having played 4 games, Diego Milito and Samuel Eto'o scoring a brace each in what was a superb performance.
Roma have been struggling both in the league and in the Champions League since the start of the season, and things went from bad to worse in midweek when they were defeated by newly promoted Brescia. Referring decisions cost them that game though, and it's going to be a lot harder for Inter to get 3 points here, but they have the quality to do so and must be growing in confidence, with SAMUEL ETO'O publicly declaring his intent to play. He's been in great form this season, and may be there to notch again should Inter need him.
In Spain, Sporting Gijon threw away a 2 goals lead last time they were at home against Bilbao, and against VALENCIA the outcome might be the same, especially seeing as they have won four of their first 5 games and have made a superb start to the season all round. Los Che were relatively unimpressive away from home last season, considering their form at the Mestalla, drawing 1-1 in Gijon, but are coming on a real form run and must be taking maximum points here if they are to be challenging Real and Barca anywhere this season.
Recommendations
Chelsea to beat Man City (5/6 Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral)
Florent Malouda to score anytime (11/4 extrabet, 2/1 elsewhere)
Over 2.5 goals (evs Bet365)
Birmingham to beat Wigan (5/6 Bet365, Totesport, Betfred, Stan James, Paddy Power, William Hill, Coral)
Fulham to beat Everton (7/4 Bet365, Victor Chandler, Blue Sq, 888 Sport)
Tottenham to beat West Ham (11/10 general)
Inter to beat Roma (13/10 Betfred)
Eto'o to score anytime (8/5 Bet365)
Valencia to beat Sporting Gijon (13/10 Blue Sq, 888 Sport)
Good luck to all.
Wednesday, 22 September 2010
Los Colchoneros and Nezzauri can continue progression
A tricky but good evening of football action, with nearly all of Europe in action.
Over in Italy, treble winners INTER MILAN are still finding their feet under Rafa Benitez but have made a satisfactory if slow start and should be much more at home against Bari in the San Siro.
Reigning Italian and European champions Inter had started the new campaign on a slow note but two successive league wins have propelled Rafael Benitez's side to the second place in Serie A with seven points, behind leaders Cesena only on goal difference.
On Sunday afternoon the Nerazzurri fell behind Palermo in Sicily but striker Samuel Eto'o turned on the style and scored a brace to lead his side to a 2-1 victory.
Valencia have played three Primera Division fixtures so far this term, and on each occasion they have claimed maximum points, meaning that they are the only side amongst Spain’s elite to command a perfect record going into Matchday 4. Los Che face their toughest test yet as they meet ATHLETICO MADRID at the Mestalla on Wednesday evening, and at 3/1 against evs, there's no reason to believe that they aren't value small stake bets.
For the opening month of the season, Atletico Madrid caught the headlines for all of the right reasons as they started their campaign off with a winning charge, leading some pundits to proclaim los Colchoneros to be genuine contenders to Barcelona’s crown. On Sunday, however, their reputation was tarnished as they lost 2-1 to la Blaugrana and saw Tomas Ujfalusi dismissed for an ugly challenge on Lionel Messi.
Though the scoreline would suggest this was a fixture that Atletico competed hard in, they rarely managed to get at Barca in any serious style and were reliant on the sheer brilliance of David De Gea in their goal to keep the scoreline respectable.
Some may say that being away from home will make the difference, but despite being very good Valencia are no Barcelona and them and Real Madrid apart, there's no reason for thinking Athletico can't beat anyone in La Liga.
Meanwhile, back in England, I have a feeling that MANCHESTER CITY will be over any away troubles and should have enough quality in such a deep squad to beat off West Brom. Being their most attacking player, big man JO may score off the back of a good performance in Salzburg.
Recommendations:
Inter to beat Bari (4/9 general)
Ath.Madrid to beat Valencia (3/1 Boylesports, VC Bet, WH, Labrokes)
Man City to beat (21/20 VC Bet) and to Qualify against West Brom (4/9 Stan James)
Jo to score at any time against West Brom (2/1 Bet365)
Over in Italy, treble winners INTER MILAN are still finding their feet under Rafa Benitez but have made a satisfactory if slow start and should be much more at home against Bari in the San Siro.
Reigning Italian and European champions Inter had started the new campaign on a slow note but two successive league wins have propelled Rafael Benitez's side to the second place in Serie A with seven points, behind leaders Cesena only on goal difference.
On Sunday afternoon the Nerazzurri fell behind Palermo in Sicily but striker Samuel Eto'o turned on the style and scored a brace to lead his side to a 2-1 victory.
Valencia have played three Primera Division fixtures so far this term, and on each occasion they have claimed maximum points, meaning that they are the only side amongst Spain’s elite to command a perfect record going into Matchday 4. Los Che face their toughest test yet as they meet ATHLETICO MADRID at the Mestalla on Wednesday evening, and at 3/1 against evs, there's no reason to believe that they aren't value small stake bets.
For the opening month of the season, Atletico Madrid caught the headlines for all of the right reasons as they started their campaign off with a winning charge, leading some pundits to proclaim los Colchoneros to be genuine contenders to Barcelona’s crown. On Sunday, however, their reputation was tarnished as they lost 2-1 to la Blaugrana and saw Tomas Ujfalusi dismissed for an ugly challenge on Lionel Messi.
Though the scoreline would suggest this was a fixture that Atletico competed hard in, they rarely managed to get at Barca in any serious style and were reliant on the sheer brilliance of David De Gea in their goal to keep the scoreline respectable.
Some may say that being away from home will make the difference, but despite being very good Valencia are no Barcelona and them and Real Madrid apart, there's no reason for thinking Athletico can't beat anyone in La Liga.
Meanwhile, back in England, I have a feeling that MANCHESTER CITY will be over any away troubles and should have enough quality in such a deep squad to beat off West Brom. Being their most attacking player, big man JO may score off the back of a good performance in Salzburg.
Recommendations:
Inter to beat Bari (4/9 general)
Ath.Madrid to beat Valencia (3/1 Boylesports, VC Bet, WH, Labrokes)
Man City to beat (21/20 VC Bet) and to Qualify against West Brom (4/9 Stan James)
Jo to score at any time against West Brom (2/1 Bet365)
Tuesday, 21 September 2010
Carling Cup Bets - Tuesday 21st September
I know it's the "mickey mouse cup", but I strongly believe I've found 3 good opportunities without even needing to to to a TV game.
Birmingham to beat MK Dons (4/9 best price)
It’s dangerous to be too confident, as this is only the Carling Cup, but the favourites are at home and that’s not the only positive for them here. MK Dons have already claimed a big scalp in the shape of Blackpool but that was at home and the newly promoted outfit had made 10 changes from their 6-0 defeat to Arsenal.
The team news for Blackpool looks good, as Birmingham boss Alex McLeish has confirmed summer signings Matt Derbyshire and Nikola Zigic will start against MK Dons. The likes of Alexander Hleb, Maik Taylor, David Murphy, Keith Fahey, Jean Beausejour and Enric Valles will also be in contention to start, a side which should have enough quality to overcome the The League One high-fliers, who surrendered their 100% home record when they were held 1-1 by Rochdale on Saturday, have struggled on the road this season and Dons are likely to be without top scorer Sam Baldock, who is struggling with an ankle problem, which is a crucial loss for them.
Wolverhampton to beat Notts Country (8/15 best price)
Wolves are starting to look comfortable as a Premier League club, whilst last season's League Two champions Notts County are steadily trying to rebuild after years in the doldrums. Wolves are fielding a very weakened side (understandable with an important derby against Aston Villa looming on Sunday) but home advantage should see them through.
Ipswich to beat Millwall (2/1 general)
Saturday's 6-1 defeat by Watford was Milllwall's heaviest home loss for eight years. It was also their first defeat at the Den since November 2009, ending an unbeaten run of 21 matches in league and cup.
They will have little time to recover from a side that are unbeaten on their travels this season, although in their previous two League Cup ties they required extra-time to see off Exeter and Crewe.
Not only that, but Millwall will be without loanee Kevin Lisbie, who is ineligible to face his parent club, while fellow striker Theo Robinson is cup-tied.
4 timer: Real Madrid (1/6), Wolves, (8/15), Birmingham (4/9) and Millwall (2/1)
Good luck to all supporting their teams tonight and UP THE ARSENAL!!
Birmingham to beat MK Dons (4/9 best price)
It’s dangerous to be too confident, as this is only the Carling Cup, but the favourites are at home and that’s not the only positive for them here. MK Dons have already claimed a big scalp in the shape of Blackpool but that was at home and the newly promoted outfit had made 10 changes from their 6-0 defeat to Arsenal.
The team news for Blackpool looks good, as Birmingham boss Alex McLeish has confirmed summer signings Matt Derbyshire and Nikola Zigic will start against MK Dons. The likes of Alexander Hleb, Maik Taylor, David Murphy, Keith Fahey, Jean Beausejour and Enric Valles will also be in contention to start, a side which should have enough quality to overcome the The League One high-fliers, who surrendered their 100% home record when they were held 1-1 by Rochdale on Saturday, have struggled on the road this season and Dons are likely to be without top scorer Sam Baldock, who is struggling with an ankle problem, which is a crucial loss for them.
Wolverhampton to beat Notts Country (8/15 best price)
Wolves are starting to look comfortable as a Premier League club, whilst last season's League Two champions Notts County are steadily trying to rebuild after years in the doldrums. Wolves are fielding a very weakened side (understandable with an important derby against Aston Villa looming on Sunday) but home advantage should see them through.
Ipswich to beat Millwall (2/1 general)
Saturday's 6-1 defeat by Watford was Milllwall's heaviest home loss for eight years. It was also their first defeat at the Den since November 2009, ending an unbeaten run of 21 matches in league and cup.
They will have little time to recover from a side that are unbeaten on their travels this season, although in their previous two League Cup ties they required extra-time to see off Exeter and Crewe.
Not only that, but Millwall will be without loanee Kevin Lisbie, who is ineligible to face his parent club, while fellow striker Theo Robinson is cup-tied.
4 timer: Real Madrid (1/6), Wolves, (8/15), Birmingham (4/9) and Millwall (2/1)
Good luck to all supporting their teams tonight and UP THE ARSENAL!!
Saturday, 18 September 2010
Arsenal Line Up v Sunderland
Line-up:
Almunia
Sagna - Squillaci - Koscielny - Clichy
Cesc - Song - Wilshere
Nasri - Chamakh - Arshavin
Almunia
Sagna - Squillaci - Koscielny - Clichy
Cesc - Song - Wilshere
Nasri - Chamakh - Arshavin
Champions League - Group winner bets
They are all short prices, but they should all come in and may be best put in doubles and trebles.
Inter to win Group A (4/5 with Paddy Power)
Only scraped through last year’s stages and have started this year’s in the same fashion, with a 2-2 draw at Twente. It’s worth remembering that they drew last year at Dynamo Kiev (2-2) to open their campaign and that Twente are no pushovers, not to mention the fact they had good chances to win the game (Cambiasso missed a near open goal). Werder Bremen and Tottenham will be even harder to beat but they should be very hard to turnover at the San Siro, which could carry them through.
Lyon to win Group B (11/10 general)
Have been rather sluggish in France but made semis only last season and started perfectly with 1-0 win over Schalke. They have the most experience of all the teams in the Group and should be near impossible to beat at the Stade Gerland.
Bayern to win Group E (4/9 general)
Admittedly a very short price but last year’s finalist do possess star quality even without Ribery and Robben in the same of Muller and Klose, and they look by far the classiest team in the group. Made the perfect start when beating the second best team in the Group (Roma) 2-0, having struggled a bit in the first half.
Real Madrid to win Group G (1/2 general)
Tough group for the Galacticos with AC Milan (who have been given major boosts in the shape of Robiniho and Ibrahimovic) and Ajax, who will be no pushovers at home especially. However they will be near unbeatable at the Bernabaeu, have world class players throughout the team and will be expected to go close to winning this, to the percentage call is to back them to win the Group.
Inter to win Group A (4/5 with Paddy Power)
Only scraped through last year’s stages and have started this year’s in the same fashion, with a 2-2 draw at Twente. It’s worth remembering that they drew last year at Dynamo Kiev (2-2) to open their campaign and that Twente are no pushovers, not to mention the fact they had good chances to win the game (Cambiasso missed a near open goal). Werder Bremen and Tottenham will be even harder to beat but they should be very hard to turnover at the San Siro, which could carry them through.
Lyon to win Group B (11/10 general)
Have been rather sluggish in France but made semis only last season and started perfectly with 1-0 win over Schalke. They have the most experience of all the teams in the Group and should be near impossible to beat at the Stade Gerland.
Bayern to win Group E (4/9 general)
Admittedly a very short price but last year’s finalist do possess star quality even without Ribery and Robben in the same of Muller and Klose, and they look by far the classiest team in the group. Made the perfect start when beating the second best team in the Group (Roma) 2-0, having struggled a bit in the first half.
Real Madrid to win Group G (1/2 general)
Tough group for the Galacticos with AC Milan (who have been given major boosts in the shape of Robiniho and Ibrahimovic) and Ajax, who will be no pushovers at home especially. However they will be near unbeatable at the Bernabaeu, have world class players throughout the team and will be expected to go close to winning this, to the percentage call is to back them to win the Group.
Football Bets - 18th Spetember 2010
Today
Stoke to beat West Ham (10/11 general)
West Ham have been very poor this season and are very opposable going to the fierce atmosphere at the Brittania, where Stoke should be buoyed having turned around a game they seemed certain to lose on Monday night.
Blackburn to beat Fulham (evs general)
Fulham don’t travel well and Blackburn have a strong home record, so evs seems a fair price. You could back under 2.5 goals as advised in the RP, but that bet is a lot easier to lose IMO.
Marsellie to beat Arles – Avingon (4/6 genreal)
This was put up in today’s RP but it does have the makings of a slid banker if Marsellie can take their chances.
Gijion to beat Athletic Bilbao (6/4 gnereal)
2 evenly matched sides but Gijion have 2 crucial factors going for them. They are at home and they won their last game, which could give the team the confidence to take on and beat Bilbao.
Sunday
Man Utd to beat Liverpool (8/11 general)
Disappointing that Man Utd weren’t able to beat Rangers on Tuesday, you can expect a few surprises as this game can’t be predicted easily. However, 10 changes were made and regardless of the comments made by Sir Alex Ferguson that must have affected the team. A stronger Man Utd with home support behind them should be able to beat a rather inconsistent and still out of sorts Liverpool.
Stoke to beat West Ham (10/11 general)
West Ham have been very poor this season and are very opposable going to the fierce atmosphere at the Brittania, where Stoke should be buoyed having turned around a game they seemed certain to lose on Monday night.
Blackburn to beat Fulham (evs general)
Fulham don’t travel well and Blackburn have a strong home record, so evs seems a fair price. You could back under 2.5 goals as advised in the RP, but that bet is a lot easier to lose IMO.
Marsellie to beat Arles – Avingon (4/6 genreal)
This was put up in today’s RP but it does have the makings of a slid banker if Marsellie can take their chances.
Gijion to beat Athletic Bilbao (6/4 gnereal)
2 evenly matched sides but Gijion have 2 crucial factors going for them. They are at home and they won their last game, which could give the team the confidence to take on and beat Bilbao.
Sunday
Man Utd to beat Liverpool (8/11 general)
Disappointing that Man Utd weren’t able to beat Rangers on Tuesday, you can expect a few surprises as this game can’t be predicted easily. However, 10 changes were made and regardless of the comments made by Sir Alex Ferguson that must have affected the team. A stronger Man Utd with home support behind them should be able to beat a rather inconsistent and still out of sorts Liverpool.
Ayr Silver and Gold Cup - Dubai Duty Free H'cap at Newbury
Ayr
2.15 – Ayr Silver Cup
I’ve had a couple of each/way pokes on:
Definightly: Will not be stopped by an 8lbs penalty if repeating his run from last week when pulverizing listed rivals on soft ground. Also is 10lb well in according to official figures, so just needs the breaks from his draw.
Irish Heartbeat: Had been slowly coming back to form before win last week and strong pace guaranteed, so that major help to chis chances. Only raised 5lbs for winning decent affair for in form Fahey yard and high side draw may well help things.
3.20 - Ayr Gold Cup
Have had each/way’s on:
Genki: Not at best here last year but is 8lbs well in following Sprint Cup third and even allowing for fluke factor, 14/1 was too good a price to miss based on his best form, including last time.
Johnny Mudball: Showed ridiculous speed in Steward’s Cup and must be right there at finish if in same form.
Hawkeyethenoo: Back to best last time and strong finish will help. Was put Victoire De Lyphar by fact that 3 year olds don’t have great record in this, and Poet’s Place by fact he had just run 5 days ago and this is harder anyway.
Newbury
3.05 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes
Have had 2 each/way’s:
Breakheart: May be still 10lbs higher than for last win but can be forgiven his run in soft ground last time and form he was showing before is progressive enough to take a hand if he’s still got the improvement in him.
Forte Del Marmi: With William Buick likely to make use of Senate’s stamina and Attash likely to blaze a trial, the pace should suit him down to the ground. Only been raised 4lbs for winning last time, which is very fair conserving he had lots in and the form is decent, and the pace scenario may well be the same this time.
2.15 – Ayr Silver Cup
I’ve had a couple of each/way pokes on:
Definightly: Will not be stopped by an 8lbs penalty if repeating his run from last week when pulverizing listed rivals on soft ground. Also is 10lb well in according to official figures, so just needs the breaks from his draw.
Irish Heartbeat: Had been slowly coming back to form before win last week and strong pace guaranteed, so that major help to chis chances. Only raised 5lbs for winning decent affair for in form Fahey yard and high side draw may well help things.
3.20 - Ayr Gold Cup
Have had each/way’s on:
Genki: Not at best here last year but is 8lbs well in following Sprint Cup third and even allowing for fluke factor, 14/1 was too good a price to miss based on his best form, including last time.
Johnny Mudball: Showed ridiculous speed in Steward’s Cup and must be right there at finish if in same form.
Hawkeyethenoo: Back to best last time and strong finish will help. Was put Victoire De Lyphar by fact that 3 year olds don’t have great record in this, and Poet’s Place by fact he had just run 5 days ago and this is harder anyway.
Newbury
3.05 – Dubai Duty Free Stakes
Have had 2 each/way’s:
Breakheart: May be still 10lbs higher than for last win but can be forgiven his run in soft ground last time and form he was showing before is progressive enough to take a hand if he’s still got the improvement in him.
Forte Del Marmi: With William Buick likely to make use of Senate’s stamina and Attash likely to blaze a trial, the pace should suit him down to the ground. Only been raised 4lbs for winning last time, which is very fair conserving he had lots in and the form is decent, and the pace scenario may well be the same this time.
Mill Reef Stakes 2010
2.30 Newbury
Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £37,468
Pick: Libranno (win)
Formosina: Made very good start with third behind Strong Suit and followed easy Doncaster maiden victory with hard-fought win in Railway Stakes at Curragh; Race probably came too soon when he was last of 6 last time but this is no easier.
Libranno: Looked useful when winning what turned out to be an excellent maiden on the Newmarket July Course and has gone onto win July and Richmond Stakes, making all in gutsy fashion on both occasions; Not up to task set in the Morny, but that was a good Group 1 and still sets standard here on fair terms; One to beat.
Crown Prosecutor: Form of his maiden win over 6f Goodwood has been franked time and time again and took another step forward when landing conditions event (form been boosted by runner-up since) only to have everything go wrong in Vintage Stakes, getting pushed around and shuffled back at the top of the hill and then weakening out of things; Second in Gimcrack was a good run last time and should be bang there.
Desert Law: Came in for a lot of support before promising AW debut last month; Can be expected to step up considerably but form of that race nothing special and this is a huge step up in class.
Mayson: Won Hamilton maiden in June and has shown some very useful form since, coming fourth to Zebdeee in Molecomb Stakes and then only just getting touched off in a listed contest last time; This is much harder though.
Temple Meads: Justified good support on debut at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas day when running away with decent 5f maiden and ran out a decisive and impressive winner of Super Sprint afterwards; Stepped up for the Gimcrack but ran freely and emptied out in last furlong, suggesting stamina may be his Achilles heel.
The Paddyman: Bumped into a good one first time out in Lord Of The Stars (seventh in Molecomb Stakes) but different horse next time out when he won by an unextended 8 lengths; Ran a brave race in the Richmond last time but well held by Libranno on that meeting.
VERDICT: For all that LIBRANNO may have flopped pretty badly last time, this will be easier than the Morny for him despite the competitive field and he’ll be hard to beat on the form he showed to beat The Paddyman on these terms at Goodwood. Crown Prosecutor and Formosina are 2 worthy contenders, while Temple Meads is yet to prove he stay 6f.
Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £37,468
Pick: Libranno (win)
Formosina: Made very good start with third behind Strong Suit and followed easy Doncaster maiden victory with hard-fought win in Railway Stakes at Curragh; Race probably came too soon when he was last of 6 last time but this is no easier.
Libranno: Looked useful when winning what turned out to be an excellent maiden on the Newmarket July Course and has gone onto win July and Richmond Stakes, making all in gutsy fashion on both occasions; Not up to task set in the Morny, but that was a good Group 1 and still sets standard here on fair terms; One to beat.
Crown Prosecutor: Form of his maiden win over 6f Goodwood has been franked time and time again and took another step forward when landing conditions event (form been boosted by runner-up since) only to have everything go wrong in Vintage Stakes, getting pushed around and shuffled back at the top of the hill and then weakening out of things; Second in Gimcrack was a good run last time and should be bang there.
Desert Law: Came in for a lot of support before promising AW debut last month; Can be expected to step up considerably but form of that race nothing special and this is a huge step up in class.
Mayson: Won Hamilton maiden in June and has shown some very useful form since, coming fourth to Zebdeee in Molecomb Stakes and then only just getting touched off in a listed contest last time; This is much harder though.
Temple Meads: Justified good support on debut at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas day when running away with decent 5f maiden and ran out a decisive and impressive winner of Super Sprint afterwards; Stepped up for the Gimcrack but ran freely and emptied out in last furlong, suggesting stamina may be his Achilles heel.
The Paddyman: Bumped into a good one first time out in Lord Of The Stars (seventh in Molecomb Stakes) but different horse next time out when he won by an unextended 8 lengths; Ran a brave race in the Richmond last time but well held by Libranno on that meeting.
VERDICT: For all that LIBRANNO may have flopped pretty badly last time, this will be easier than the Morny for him despite the competitive field and he’ll be hard to beat on the form he showed to beat The Paddyman on these terms at Goodwood. Crown Prosecutor and Formosina are 2 worthy contenders, while Temple Meads is yet to prove he stay 6f.
Laundry Cottage Stud Firth Of Clyde Stakes 2010
2.45 Ayr
Laundry Cottage Stud Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Fillies' Group 3) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £34,062 - Draw Advantage: High
Pick: Rimth (win)
Barefooot Lady: Cam right away on debut despite needing plenty of stoking and achieved a lot more when winning at St Ledger festival last time, doing job just as nicely; This another step in class but should be there or thereabouts
Days Of Summer: Travelled well for a long way ion debut at Windsor and much more straightforward when winning at Lingfield with just month inbetween; This much harder but more improvement surely on the cards.
Finoon: Although she’s likely to improve, this much tougher than her winning maiden at Yarmouth and she may well want the longer trip already; Frankie prefers Ragash even though Finnoon’s record reads better.
Majestic Dubawi: Looked in need of the experience on debut at Newbury in very good maiden, with the winner and second having made mark in pattern company (one way or another) this is by far tougher all round race but n surprise if she’s up to task set here.
Morirtita: Is still open to progress even though this is her 6th start, having gone close in Nursery at Doncaster last time and not one to discount from this yard; Will need to improve on her 2 unplaced listed efforts.
Ragash: Beautifully-bred filly who followed maiden win with good run in Doncaster nursery last time, travelling strongly until getting swamped by 3 or 4 horses late on; Needs more than that but is Dettori’s first pick and unlikely to be inconvenienced by drop back in trip.
Rimth: Produced a fine turn of foot to win 16-runner maiden over 5f at Windsor in May (form worked out very well for the grade)and has since bettered that form in high grade, coming tri dint eh Lowther (form worked out) and second in the Dick Poole Stakes last time; Both runs will give her all the beating her and the one to aim at.
Shoshini Wind: Impressive when winning at Newcastle in June and good second in listed race at Newmarket, but form of that race not exactly strong and also only sixth in Super Sprint; Not improved much since then.
Strictly Pink: Asking lot for her to take a hand at this level turned out again so quickly after midfield finish on Monday (Redcar).
Sweetie Time: slammed field that included 4 next-time-out winners at Haydock in June, which is one of strongest pieces of form in race (listed winner Khor Sheed behind, well beaten) and was unlucky to be beaten by Tallahase last time giving away 3lbs; Should be closely matched on better terms but this tougher.
Tallahasse: Made easy winning debut in 5f Beverly maiden and just wouldn’t give in when making it 2-2 in gutsy fashion over Sweetie Time, getting a nice handy 3lbs pull; Should improve again but this tougher race altogether.
VERDICT: You haven’t seen the best of Barefoot Lady, Sweetie Time, Finoon and Tallahasse but RIMTH sets a high standard based on her form on her last 2 starts and she may just prove too good if things drop right for her.
Laundry Cottage Stud Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Fillies' Group 3) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £34,062 - Draw Advantage: High
Pick: Rimth (win)
Barefooot Lady: Cam right away on debut despite needing plenty of stoking and achieved a lot more when winning at St Ledger festival last time, doing job just as nicely; This another step in class but should be there or thereabouts
Days Of Summer: Travelled well for a long way ion debut at Windsor and much more straightforward when winning at Lingfield with just month inbetween; This much harder but more improvement surely on the cards.
Finoon: Although she’s likely to improve, this much tougher than her winning maiden at Yarmouth and she may well want the longer trip already; Frankie prefers Ragash even though Finnoon’s record reads better.
Majestic Dubawi: Looked in need of the experience on debut at Newbury in very good maiden, with the winner and second having made mark in pattern company (one way or another) this is by far tougher all round race but n surprise if she’s up to task set here.
Morirtita: Is still open to progress even though this is her 6th start, having gone close in Nursery at Doncaster last time and not one to discount from this yard; Will need to improve on her 2 unplaced listed efforts.
Ragash: Beautifully-bred filly who followed maiden win with good run in Doncaster nursery last time, travelling strongly until getting swamped by 3 or 4 horses late on; Needs more than that but is Dettori’s first pick and unlikely to be inconvenienced by drop back in trip.
Rimth: Produced a fine turn of foot to win 16-runner maiden over 5f at Windsor in May (form worked out very well for the grade)and has since bettered that form in high grade, coming tri dint eh Lowther (form worked out) and second in the Dick Poole Stakes last time; Both runs will give her all the beating her and the one to aim at.
Shoshini Wind: Impressive when winning at Newcastle in June and good second in listed race at Newmarket, but form of that race not exactly strong and also only sixth in Super Sprint; Not improved much since then.
Strictly Pink: Asking lot for her to take a hand at this level turned out again so quickly after midfield finish on Monday (Redcar).
Sweetie Time: slammed field that included 4 next-time-out winners at Haydock in June, which is one of strongest pieces of form in race (listed winner Khor Sheed behind, well beaten) and was unlucky to be beaten by Tallahase last time giving away 3lbs; Should be closely matched on better terms but this tougher.
Tallahasse: Made easy winning debut in 5f Beverly maiden and just wouldn’t give in when making it 2-2 in gutsy fashion over Sweetie Time, getting a nice handy 3lbs pull; Should improve again but this tougher race altogether.
VERDICT: You haven’t seen the best of Barefoot Lady, Sweetie Time, Finoon and Tallahasse but RIMTH sets a high standard based on her form on her last 2 starts and she may just prove too good if things drop right for her.
Dubai Airport World Trophy 2010
3.40 Newbury
Dubai Airport World Trophy (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £34,062
Picks: Astrophysical Jet (win), Total Gallery (each/way)
Triple Aspect: Fourth in this last year and has improved since, winning a listed and Group 3 event; Been unlucky elsehwrre unseating when coming with strong run in King George Spritna t Goodwood, and coming too late in Flying Five Stakes last time; Needs a stiff test of this trip and may be outsped today.
Gilt Edge Girl: Thriving filly who progressed from handicaps to take a listed and Group 3 event this year; Best effort yet when close third in Germany last time, but her penalty Is very tricky in open company.
Group Therapy: Improved a ton for joining the Noseda yard, fairly bolting up in conditions race at Beverley before coming a close second to Triple Aspect at Sandown (decent event) and ahead of several of these rivals when second in King George Stakes at Goodwood; Good third behind 2 classy rivals last time but this not easier contest.
Hamish McGonagall: Has landed 3 big-field handicaps this term and much better than bare result inlatest tilt at pattern company in Ireland last time; Should be on premises again.
Inxile: Looked back to best when landing Cammidge Trophy and ran great race in Duke Of York Stakes earlier this year, blitzing away until fading late on in the final furlong; Disappointing last time and this is hard task.
Masamah: Made successful transition from handicaps to listed company at Chester 2 starts ago, and is better than result in Portland handicap; That said, baiting off more than he can chew by behing here, and needs more than ever before.
Prohibit: Split Mister Hughie and Captain Dunne when second in Beverley Bullet, having to wait for a run as customary tactics demand and befitted from great Spencer ride in Scarbrough Stakes; Should be on premises again though, and powerful turn of foot means he can take on any opposition.
Secret Asset: Snuck a place behind Maurice De Gheest winner Regal Parade in Group 3 here earlier this year, but has been beaten in handicaps since (allowing for the fact he ran well),being beaten by Prohibit last time off 3lbs better terms.
Spin Cycle: Had some smart juvenile form and hasn’t exactly had things go his way since but has tried hard on all starts this year and last; Seems to fall on every start in good company now though.
Total Gallery: Did all his good work towards the end of last season, his biggest win coming in Prix L’Abbaye and running a very good race with the world’s best in Hong Kong when last seen that year; Hasn’t been at anywhere near best since but this is easier race’s he’s been in for about a year and best form (with no penalty) would make him tough to beat.
Astrophysical Jet: Drop back to this trip has been the making of her, realizing belated promise shown when fairly bolting up under heavy weight in Newmarket handicap before good third in King George Stakes and then easy win in Flying Five Stakes last time; Should go close again.
Mister Hughie: Lost confidence after having suffered a fall but has come back better than ever with fourth (running on) in King George Stakes at Goodwood, and then coming just on top in Beverly Bullet Stakes last time; Likes a stuff test and fast pace, although this is a tough race.
Golden Destiny: Has been beaten by Rose Blossom, Prohibit and Gilt dEge Girl (all on favourable terms) so hard to see her making an impact here.
Beyond Desire: Actually beat Astrophysical Jet convincingly when readily winning Haydock in May and second in Leopardstown Group 3 next time was good effort; Had absence and ran rather flat on comeback, so will need to have peak fitness on to take a major hand in this event.
VERDICT: Many horses here could win this if things go right, and the stronger the pace the better for the likes of Group Therapy, Triple Aspect and especially Prohibit. The drop back to 5f has made ASTROPHYSICAL JET, who was very impressive at the Curragh, and she will be tough to beat if in a similar mood here. This is the easiest race that TOTAL GALLERY has run in for a year and if back to his best, is a very fair price to get into the top 3.
Dubai Airport World Trophy (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £34,062
Picks: Astrophysical Jet (win), Total Gallery (each/way)
Triple Aspect: Fourth in this last year and has improved since, winning a listed and Group 3 event; Been unlucky elsehwrre unseating when coming with strong run in King George Spritna t Goodwood, and coming too late in Flying Five Stakes last time; Needs a stiff test of this trip and may be outsped today.
Gilt Edge Girl: Thriving filly who progressed from handicaps to take a listed and Group 3 event this year; Best effort yet when close third in Germany last time, but her penalty Is very tricky in open company.
Group Therapy: Improved a ton for joining the Noseda yard, fairly bolting up in conditions race at Beverley before coming a close second to Triple Aspect at Sandown (decent event) and ahead of several of these rivals when second in King George Stakes at Goodwood; Good third behind 2 classy rivals last time but this not easier contest.
Hamish McGonagall: Has landed 3 big-field handicaps this term and much better than bare result inlatest tilt at pattern company in Ireland last time; Should be on premises again.
Inxile: Looked back to best when landing Cammidge Trophy and ran great race in Duke Of York Stakes earlier this year, blitzing away until fading late on in the final furlong; Disappointing last time and this is hard task.
Masamah: Made successful transition from handicaps to listed company at Chester 2 starts ago, and is better than result in Portland handicap; That said, baiting off more than he can chew by behing here, and needs more than ever before.
Prohibit: Split Mister Hughie and Captain Dunne when second in Beverley Bullet, having to wait for a run as customary tactics demand and befitted from great Spencer ride in Scarbrough Stakes; Should be on premises again though, and powerful turn of foot means he can take on any opposition.
Secret Asset: Snuck a place behind Maurice De Gheest winner Regal Parade in Group 3 here earlier this year, but has been beaten in handicaps since (allowing for the fact he ran well),being beaten by Prohibit last time off 3lbs better terms.
Spin Cycle: Had some smart juvenile form and hasn’t exactly had things go his way since but has tried hard on all starts this year and last; Seems to fall on every start in good company now though.
Total Gallery: Did all his good work towards the end of last season, his biggest win coming in Prix L’Abbaye and running a very good race with the world’s best in Hong Kong when last seen that year; Hasn’t been at anywhere near best since but this is easier race’s he’s been in for about a year and best form (with no penalty) would make him tough to beat.
Astrophysical Jet: Drop back to this trip has been the making of her, realizing belated promise shown when fairly bolting up under heavy weight in Newmarket handicap before good third in King George Stakes and then easy win in Flying Five Stakes last time; Should go close again.
Mister Hughie: Lost confidence after having suffered a fall but has come back better than ever with fourth (running on) in King George Stakes at Goodwood, and then coming just on top in Beverly Bullet Stakes last time; Likes a stuff test and fast pace, although this is a tough race.
Golden Destiny: Has been beaten by Rose Blossom, Prohibit and Gilt dEge Girl (all on favourable terms) so hard to see her making an impact here.
Beyond Desire: Actually beat Astrophysical Jet convincingly when readily winning Haydock in May and second in Leopardstown Group 3 next time was good effort; Had absence and ran rather flat on comeback, so will need to have peak fitness on to take a major hand in this event.
VERDICT: Many horses here could win this if things go right, and the stronger the pace the better for the likes of Group Therapy, Triple Aspect and especially Prohibit. The drop back to 5f has made ASTROPHYSICAL JET, who was very impressive at the Curragh, and she will be tough to beat if in a similar mood here. This is the easiest race that TOTAL GALLERY has run in for a year and if back to his best, is a very fair price to get into the top 3.
Sunday, 12 September 2010
Curragh today- Bonus post
Curagh
2.45 (Flame of Tara EBF Listed)
- Spin
Did the job in easy fashion last time but holds a good form gap over the second fav Banimpire, and if the market is right (pick has been backed into 5/4 with most frirms) then they should hold an advantage over the rest. One to beat.
3.15 (Solonway Stakes)
- Steinbeck
Has been highly tired this season after a very encouraging fourth in the St James’s Palace (found himself left in lead), having failed to make an impact in America before an easy win in listed company last time. This is a harder race to win but’s he’s worthy of a much higher grade anyway.
3.45 (Blandford Stakes)
- Elanora Duse
Has done nothing but progress all season and put in career best when behind Snow Fairy and Midday, both fillies who would romp home in this in the Workshir Oaks last time. Should eb ahppy with 10f and cut in the ground.
2.45 (Flame of Tara EBF Listed)
- Spin
Did the job in easy fashion last time but holds a good form gap over the second fav Banimpire, and if the market is right (pick has been backed into 5/4 with most frirms) then they should hold an advantage over the rest. One to beat.
3.15 (Solonway Stakes)
- Steinbeck
Has been highly tired this season after a very encouraging fourth in the St James’s Palace (found himself left in lead), having failed to make an impact in America before an easy win in listed company last time. This is a harder race to win but’s he’s worthy of a much higher grade anyway.
3.45 (Blandford Stakes)
- Elanora Duse
Has done nothing but progress all season and put in career best when behind Snow Fairy and Midday, both fillies who would romp home in this in the Workshir Oaks last time. Should eb ahppy with 10f and cut in the ground.
200!!!! - And an Arc Trials Day Lunchtime special!!
Firstly, sorry for not being able to post full updates on the arc trials. It was dissapointing that I didn't find the time last night, but problems like this were always going to happen (as I have mentioned before).
Secondly, if you are still reading regularly, thank you!! for keeping up with the blog.
Thirdly, as a make up, I've posted the picks for the reaming trials, with a "pricewise extra" kind of feel to it.
2.35 (Prix Vermille)
- Sariska
The key factor of me is that this is the first time that she will have had the ground she likes this terms, and if she can push Fame And Glory so close in the Coronation Cup on very fast ground, imagine what she could do on a softer surface, as she will get today, and it must be remembered that she can win Group 1’s on quicker going too. For all that there’s no telling how good Sarafina could be, her form has taken a few knocks and she is stepping to the trip for the first time, which may well prove crucial, especially if she fails to settle. Plumania has been largely overlooked and would be a worthy winner, as her form last time out is top class despite her having been lucky to get the nod. Midday is the obvious choice for many, as she will run well again, has a turn of foot that can be used twice if needed and comes here on a real roll of form. The stronger the pace the better for her.
3.15 (Prix Niel)
- Behkabad
A hard race to be confident in as Behkabad was given a great ride by Gerald Mosse last time, and both him and the closely matched and just as good (on form) Planteur (who was held up to get the trip, meaning that Bekhbad got first run) will not be on peak form for this race. That said, he did look good in winning this last time, he loves this course and distance and will be very hard to turn over today. Given that this is just a trial, I wouldn’t rule out Shamalgan, while Victoire Pisa has the form to win this race, but then again, he may not be at his peak.
3.45 Prix Foy
- Daryakana
For all that Byword has the best form in the race, he doesn’t look like a stayer of 1m4f in any given situation and may be reliant on a tactical affair. In any case, he’s too short for a trial. DARYAKNANA has had excuses for every run this season and is a very fair price at 9/2 to take this. Nakayama Festa was good enough to beat Buena Vista, so must be taken seriously.
4.20 (Prix Glaidateur)
- Kasbah Bliss
Looked as good as ever early on in season, being prepared for tilt at Ascot Gold Cup; Disappointed in that event but had throat infection and if back to best, should take all the beating here.
Secondly, if you are still reading regularly, thank you!! for keeping up with the blog.
Thirdly, as a make up, I've posted the picks for the reaming trials, with a "pricewise extra" kind of feel to it.
2.35 (Prix Vermille)
- Sariska
The key factor of me is that this is the first time that she will have had the ground she likes this terms, and if she can push Fame And Glory so close in the Coronation Cup on very fast ground, imagine what she could do on a softer surface, as she will get today, and it must be remembered that she can win Group 1’s on quicker going too. For all that there’s no telling how good Sarafina could be, her form has taken a few knocks and she is stepping to the trip for the first time, which may well prove crucial, especially if she fails to settle. Plumania has been largely overlooked and would be a worthy winner, as her form last time out is top class despite her having been lucky to get the nod. Midday is the obvious choice for many, as she will run well again, has a turn of foot that can be used twice if needed and comes here on a real roll of form. The stronger the pace the better for her.
3.15 (Prix Niel)
- Behkabad
A hard race to be confident in as Behkabad was given a great ride by Gerald Mosse last time, and both him and the closely matched and just as good (on form) Planteur (who was held up to get the trip, meaning that Bekhbad got first run) will not be on peak form for this race. That said, he did look good in winning this last time, he loves this course and distance and will be very hard to turn over today. Given that this is just a trial, I wouldn’t rule out Shamalgan, while Victoire Pisa has the form to win this race, but then again, he may not be at his peak.
3.45 Prix Foy
- Daryakana
For all that Byword has the best form in the race, he doesn’t look like a stayer of 1m4f in any given situation and may be reliant on a tactical affair. In any case, he’s too short for a trial. DARYAKNANA has had excuses for every run this season and is a very fair price at 9/2 to take this. Nakayama Festa was good enough to beat Buena Vista, so must be taken seriously.
4.20 (Prix Glaidateur)
- Kasbah Bliss
Looked as good as ever early on in season, being prepared for tilt at Ascot Gold Cup; Disappointed in that event but had throat infection and if back to best, should take all the beating here.
Saturday, 11 September 2010
boylesports.com Vincent O'Brien National Stakes 2010
3.20 Curragh
boylesports.com Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner €116,000 - 9 run -
Pick: Zoffany (win)
A Word Apart: Built on initial promise when landing a 7f Leopardstown maiden earlier this month; This much tougher.
Casamento: Wasn't extended when making all in a 7f Tipperary maiden last month, proving lengths too strong for Cannon Hill and winning with relative ease; Must be well thought off to go here but it’s a very tough test for him to make his mark in.
Glor Na Mara: From very high class US family (dam unraced daughter of minor US 7f stakes winner Angelina Capote, herself half-sister to US 8.5f Grade 1 winner Do It With Style) and comes with huge reputation, such that he made his debut in Anglesey Stakes (was just 2/1); Bettered that with huge run in Phoenix Stakes, only just getting caught by Zoffany and beating Coventry winner Strong Suit; Looked set for big things but has since been well beaten by Pathfork and then otubattled in very poor by Dingle View at 6f on his last start; Needs a lot more.
High Ruler: Justified market confidence at second attempt when winning Roscommon maiden in July, having previously been smashed into last on debut; Bettered that form when workmanlike second to Zoffany and respectable run when fourth to Pathfork last time.
Janood: Looked like horse with a future when not fully extended to get up in winning 6f maiden at Newmarket 15 days ago by neck from stablemate Busker; Stepped up on that when winning useful 4 runner Matalan Stakes, handling ground better than most (especially Zaidan, Chesham Stakes winner; Been supplemented from team who have good juvenile squad, so accorded a lot of respect.
Pathfork: Always been highly regarded by trainer and chalked in at 20/1 for Guineas when he created a big impression when landing a maiden over the course and distance that has made host of top-class performers, (Teofilo and New Approach among winners in recent years )by four lengths last month, beating subsequent Galway maiden winner Robin Hood and looking every inch a Group class colt; Confirmed that impression when sweeping Glor Na Mara aside with ease in Futurity and one to beat on that form.
Rudolf Valentino: Looked Group class when bolting up at Naas 2 starts ago, leaving decent field in his wake but disappointing when well-held third (Samuel Morse second) in Group 3 Anglesey Stakes and same story in Futurity last time.
Samuel Morse: Created good impression when scoring here on debut and has progressed since, winning Marble Hill and coming fourth behind Strong Suit in Coventry; Has been rather disappointing considering that result since with seconds in Superlative and Anglesey Stakes (well beaten) and another step backwards when fifth in Phoenix Stakes; Behind Glor Na Mara and Pathfork last time, so hard to fancy.
Zoffany: Created excellent impression in winning 5 of 6 starts, looking outstanding in first 2, finding the hustle and bustle of Coventry too much at Royal Ascot (got badly hampered; Unbeaten since, (back to smooth style of first 2 wins), making short work of listed and Group 3 fields before then arriving back at top level with a bang with Phoenix Stakes win, arriving fast and late between Strong Suit and Glor Na Mara to win going away; That win on strict formlines leaves him with a little to find with Pathfork but he has lightning turn of foot and worthy favourite.
VERDICT: A mouth-watering clash between the 2 best Irish Juveniles seen this season, in Pathfork and ZOFFANY, with marginal preference for the latter based on his blistering change of speed and his Phoenix win last time. Janood shouldn’t be ignored given the depth his stable has with juveniles (supplemented) while Casamento is no back number. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Glor Na Mara win but on all form he shouldn’t and doesn’t seem to have the attitude for it based on his last run.
boylesports.com Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner €116,000 - 9 run -
Pick: Zoffany (win)
A Word Apart: Built on initial promise when landing a 7f Leopardstown maiden earlier this month; This much tougher.
Casamento: Wasn't extended when making all in a 7f Tipperary maiden last month, proving lengths too strong for Cannon Hill and winning with relative ease; Must be well thought off to go here but it’s a very tough test for him to make his mark in.
Glor Na Mara: From very high class US family (dam unraced daughter of minor US 7f stakes winner Angelina Capote, herself half-sister to US 8.5f Grade 1 winner Do It With Style) and comes with huge reputation, such that he made his debut in Anglesey Stakes (was just 2/1); Bettered that with huge run in Phoenix Stakes, only just getting caught by Zoffany and beating Coventry winner Strong Suit; Looked set for big things but has since been well beaten by Pathfork and then otubattled in very poor by Dingle View at 6f on his last start; Needs a lot more.
High Ruler: Justified market confidence at second attempt when winning Roscommon maiden in July, having previously been smashed into last on debut; Bettered that form when workmanlike second to Zoffany and respectable run when fourth to Pathfork last time.
Janood: Looked like horse with a future when not fully extended to get up in winning 6f maiden at Newmarket 15 days ago by neck from stablemate Busker; Stepped up on that when winning useful 4 runner Matalan Stakes, handling ground better than most (especially Zaidan, Chesham Stakes winner; Been supplemented from team who have good juvenile squad, so accorded a lot of respect.
Pathfork: Always been highly regarded by trainer and chalked in at 20/1 for Guineas when he created a big impression when landing a maiden over the course and distance that has made host of top-class performers, (Teofilo and New Approach among winners in recent years )by four lengths last month, beating subsequent Galway maiden winner Robin Hood and looking every inch a Group class colt; Confirmed that impression when sweeping Glor Na Mara aside with ease in Futurity and one to beat on that form.
Rudolf Valentino: Looked Group class when bolting up at Naas 2 starts ago, leaving decent field in his wake but disappointing when well-held third (Samuel Morse second) in Group 3 Anglesey Stakes and same story in Futurity last time.
Samuel Morse: Created good impression when scoring here on debut and has progressed since, winning Marble Hill and coming fourth behind Strong Suit in Coventry; Has been rather disappointing considering that result since with seconds in Superlative and Anglesey Stakes (well beaten) and another step backwards when fifth in Phoenix Stakes; Behind Glor Na Mara and Pathfork last time, so hard to fancy.
Zoffany: Created excellent impression in winning 5 of 6 starts, looking outstanding in first 2, finding the hustle and bustle of Coventry too much at Royal Ascot (got badly hampered; Unbeaten since, (back to smooth style of first 2 wins), making short work of listed and Group 3 fields before then arriving back at top level with a bang with Phoenix Stakes win, arriving fast and late between Strong Suit and Glor Na Mara to win going away; That win on strict formlines leaves him with a little to find with Pathfork but he has lightning turn of foot and worthy favourite.
VERDICT: A mouth-watering clash between the 2 best Irish Juveniles seen this season, in Pathfork and ZOFFANY, with marginal preference for the latter based on his blistering change of speed and his Phoenix win last time. Janood shouldn’t be ignored given the depth his stable has with juveniles (supplemented) while Casamento is no back number. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Glor Na Mara win but on all form he shouldn’t and doesn’t seem to have the attitude for it based on his last run.
Irish St Ledger 2010
3.45 Currragh
Irish Field St. Leger (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner €139,400 - 8 run -
Pick: Sans Frontiers (win)
Kite Wood: Only just beaten in St Ledger last year after winning this race and continued in same vein when winning Prix Vietcommesse Viger in good style on seasonal debut; Failed to stay in Gold Cup and can be judged much better than that, but vey disappointing latest and can’t be backed with confidence.
Pop Rock: Would be a fascinating proposition if recovering his form of n 2006/07, when runner-up in Melbourne Cup and Japan Cup, and still useful for K. Sumii this year judged on easy win in minor event at Galway; Needs a lot more than that though.
Rajik: Better than ever this year, completing quick-fire hat-trick with success in a listed event at Galway; Sure to run his race and may not need to do a whole lot more to shake up race, but this is an awful lot tougher.
Sans Frontiers: Very talented and very lightly raced colt who has an excellent level of form; Taken time to come to hand after injury but realising promise in good style, winning Princess Of Wales’s Stakes impressively and looked like stayer with future when winning Geoffrey Freer last time, and with form getting boosted all the tiem and Peslier on board, must have a first rate chance.
Tactic: Has found an amazing amount of improvement this season, producing one of most impressive performances of season when smashing listed field by 14 lengths and then winning Curragh Cup by 2 lengths; Found to be lame last time and holds Profound Beauty on their earlier form, so has a chance.
Profound Beauty: Has been as good as ever this season, winning Challenge, Saval Beg and Ballyroan Stakes in sumptuous style; Disappointing when beaten in Curragh Cup but this test will suit her down to the ground, particularly if ground stays the same way.
Flying Cross: Only had 3 runs and surprising that he is sent here instead of impressive Kilternan Stakes winner Await The Dawn; Created favourable impression when winning minor event at Tipperary and while this is much tougher, he looks smart and stable will know what they are doing with these events.
Lady Lupus: Not without any hope, seeing as she excelled herself in pacemaking role when coming third behind Snow Fairy in Irish Oaks last time, an impressive run considering pace they went that day in ground; May be used for same purposes but no surprise if she were to go close.
VERDICT: Profound Beauty sets a high standard, but she may find one too good in SANS FRONTIERS, who is on a progressive roll and is having his form franked time and time again.
Irish Field St. Leger (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner €139,400 - 8 run -
Pick: Sans Frontiers (win)
Kite Wood: Only just beaten in St Ledger last year after winning this race and continued in same vein when winning Prix Vietcommesse Viger in good style on seasonal debut; Failed to stay in Gold Cup and can be judged much better than that, but vey disappointing latest and can’t be backed with confidence.
Pop Rock: Would be a fascinating proposition if recovering his form of n 2006/07, when runner-up in Melbourne Cup and Japan Cup, and still useful for K. Sumii this year judged on easy win in minor event at Galway; Needs a lot more than that though.
Rajik: Better than ever this year, completing quick-fire hat-trick with success in a listed event at Galway; Sure to run his race and may not need to do a whole lot more to shake up race, but this is an awful lot tougher.
Sans Frontiers: Very talented and very lightly raced colt who has an excellent level of form; Taken time to come to hand after injury but realising promise in good style, winning Princess Of Wales’s Stakes impressively and looked like stayer with future when winning Geoffrey Freer last time, and with form getting boosted all the tiem and Peslier on board, must have a first rate chance.
Tactic: Has found an amazing amount of improvement this season, producing one of most impressive performances of season when smashing listed field by 14 lengths and then winning Curragh Cup by 2 lengths; Found to be lame last time and holds Profound Beauty on their earlier form, so has a chance.
Profound Beauty: Has been as good as ever this season, winning Challenge, Saval Beg and Ballyroan Stakes in sumptuous style; Disappointing when beaten in Curragh Cup but this test will suit her down to the ground, particularly if ground stays the same way.
Flying Cross: Only had 3 runs and surprising that he is sent here instead of impressive Kilternan Stakes winner Await The Dawn; Created favourable impression when winning minor event at Tipperary and while this is much tougher, he looks smart and stable will know what they are doing with these events.
Lady Lupus: Not without any hope, seeing as she excelled herself in pacemaking role when coming third behind Snow Fairy in Irish Oaks last time, an impressive run considering pace they went that day in ground; May be used for same purposes but no surprise if she were to go close.
VERDICT: Profound Beauty sets a high standard, but she may find one too good in SANS FRONTIERS, who is on a progressive roll and is having his form franked time and time again.
Ladbrokes St Ledger 2010
3.20 Doncaster
Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £283,850 - 10 run
Picks: Midas Touch (each/way), Artic Cosmos (each/way)
Artic Cosmos: Massively improving horse, who bolted up in AW handicap at Kempton prior to fine second to Monterosso in Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot; Only third in Gordon Stakes but never handled track for a second and was given way too much to do, closing into a late third, beaten only a length; This again tougher but demands respect given form that stable are in and blinkers may well pull out more improvement; Should relish trip.
Corsica: Has been most progressive and a model of consistency, winning 2 handicaps, a listed race and the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy this year; Went off too fast in Gordon Stakes but this again much tougher and doubtful he would have won anyway.
Dandino: 4 from 5 this year, raising game yet another notch when only just failing to catch Rebel Solider in Gordon Stakes, missing out by a short head but looking as if he’d stay this trip; This is much harder than that but sill improving, so can’t be ruled out totally.
Joshua Tree: Scrambled home over 7f in the mud at Gowran on debut, then better effort when second in 8f nursery at Listowel before showing immense promise when taking Royal Lodge Stakes; Suffered some holdbacks in spring and given how stable’s horses improve for first runs of season, remarkably encouraging how well he travelled into Great Voltigeur before giving way for third; Should improve for that but stamina for this trip not cast iron.
Midas Touch; Progressive in three runs at two and ended season with a decent fourth in Criterium International; Made a very good return when landing Derrinstown Derby Trial so was disappointing when lacklustre fifth in Derby; Ran a brave race when close second in Irish Derby, and ran well conserving he had to shoulder a 4lbs penalty in Great Voltigeur at York last month; Should stay the trip just fine and 3lbs pull combined with longer trip means that result is by no means a formality; Chance.
Rewilding: Graduated from Andre Fabre's stable with flying colours when taking a Cocked Hat Stakes in great style visually and supplemented for Derby off the back of that; Ran a good race in Derby, proving very unsuited and losing lot of ground on Tattenham Corner before making good late progress, looking like St Ledger winner in waiting and did nothing to discourage those opinions when slamming Midas Touch, Joshua Tree and Ted Spread in Great Voltigeur at York last month; Going to be near impossible to beat and worthy fav.
Ted Spread: Improved on all previous form and just pulled out more and more to win Chester Vase in gutsy fashion, beating off Icon Dream by ½ a length; Ran no sort of race in Derby but can be forgiven that and actually showed some promise when fourth in Great Voltigeur; However, it Is hard to envisage him being good enough to reverse form with those 3 ahead of him.
Theology: No fireworks on his first three starts, but penny has really dropped this year; Career best when beaten inches in 2m Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, and that form reads well; Disappointing when sixth in the Gordon, and while it’s probably true that he didn’t run a true race that day, much more is going to be needed.
Total Command: Steadily improving sort, who ran a perfect trial for this when stepped up in trip to 2m for the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, travelling strongly and showing a good turn of foot to go clear before faltering for stamina in the final furlong; With that in mind, bitterly disappointing when 9th in Great Voltigeur and leap of faith needed to back him now.
Snow Fairy: Has improved out of all recognition this season for step up to middle distances, showing impressive turn of foot to land the Height Of Fashion Stakes before making mockery of her price when coming with powerful burst under brilliant ride form Ryan Moore to land Oaks, even with troubled passage; No such trouble in Irish Oaks next time, completing Oaks double in emphatic style on soft ground; Ran a very respectable race when behind Midday last time out and while she should stay this trip fine, she may not improve for it; Major player and is only Group 1 winner in field.
VERDICT: A deservedly strong renewal of a great race, that hopefully will get field of this and better quality in the future. It’s near on impossible to oppose REWILDING, whose stong-finishing Derby third had St Leger written all over it and should be just fine with the trip. However, while he’s a worth fav, he’s a very short price and he has made way for some fantastic betting opportunities on the each/way front. MIDAS TOUCH is a consistent and classy sort who should love this test and is 3lbs better off for a 4 length beating in the Voltiegur. It was remarkably encouraging how well Joshua Tree travelled into the Great Voltigeur before giving way for third, but his stamina might give way. Snow Fairy demands respect bringing top form to the table (not to mention that Oaks winners have an excellent record), and should stay based on here Irish Oaks win. However, it’s notable that Ryan Moore is 2-2 on her and while Eddie Ahern is a good deputy, one has to wonder if the pair don’t have some kind of rapport (doubtful that any jockey other than Moore would have won the Oaks). Dandino is possibly capable of better still with more emphasis on stamina here, although this is a lot tougher than his Gordon Stakes near miss. That said, I’m strongly of the opinion that ARTIC COSMOS should have won that race, and with the possibility of more to come, he’s taken as a second e/w bet.
Ladbrokes St Leger Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £283,850 - 10 run
Picks: Midas Touch (each/way), Artic Cosmos (each/way)
Artic Cosmos: Massively improving horse, who bolted up in AW handicap at Kempton prior to fine second to Monterosso in Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot; Only third in Gordon Stakes but never handled track for a second and was given way too much to do, closing into a late third, beaten only a length; This again tougher but demands respect given form that stable are in and blinkers may well pull out more improvement; Should relish trip.
Corsica: Has been most progressive and a model of consistency, winning 2 handicaps, a listed race and the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy this year; Went off too fast in Gordon Stakes but this again much tougher and doubtful he would have won anyway.
Dandino: 4 from 5 this year, raising game yet another notch when only just failing to catch Rebel Solider in Gordon Stakes, missing out by a short head but looking as if he’d stay this trip; This is much harder than that but sill improving, so can’t be ruled out totally.
Joshua Tree: Scrambled home over 7f in the mud at Gowran on debut, then better effort when second in 8f nursery at Listowel before showing immense promise when taking Royal Lodge Stakes; Suffered some holdbacks in spring and given how stable’s horses improve for first runs of season, remarkably encouraging how well he travelled into Great Voltigeur before giving way for third; Should improve for that but stamina for this trip not cast iron.
Midas Touch; Progressive in three runs at two and ended season with a decent fourth in Criterium International; Made a very good return when landing Derrinstown Derby Trial so was disappointing when lacklustre fifth in Derby; Ran a brave race when close second in Irish Derby, and ran well conserving he had to shoulder a 4lbs penalty in Great Voltigeur at York last month; Should stay the trip just fine and 3lbs pull combined with longer trip means that result is by no means a formality; Chance.
Rewilding: Graduated from Andre Fabre's stable with flying colours when taking a Cocked Hat Stakes in great style visually and supplemented for Derby off the back of that; Ran a good race in Derby, proving very unsuited and losing lot of ground on Tattenham Corner before making good late progress, looking like St Ledger winner in waiting and did nothing to discourage those opinions when slamming Midas Touch, Joshua Tree and Ted Spread in Great Voltigeur at York last month; Going to be near impossible to beat and worthy fav.
Ted Spread: Improved on all previous form and just pulled out more and more to win Chester Vase in gutsy fashion, beating off Icon Dream by ½ a length; Ran no sort of race in Derby but can be forgiven that and actually showed some promise when fourth in Great Voltigeur; However, it Is hard to envisage him being good enough to reverse form with those 3 ahead of him.
Theology: No fireworks on his first three starts, but penny has really dropped this year; Career best when beaten inches in 2m Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, and that form reads well; Disappointing when sixth in the Gordon, and while it’s probably true that he didn’t run a true race that day, much more is going to be needed.
Total Command: Steadily improving sort, who ran a perfect trial for this when stepped up in trip to 2m for the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, travelling strongly and showing a good turn of foot to go clear before faltering for stamina in the final furlong; With that in mind, bitterly disappointing when 9th in Great Voltigeur and leap of faith needed to back him now.
Snow Fairy: Has improved out of all recognition this season for step up to middle distances, showing impressive turn of foot to land the Height Of Fashion Stakes before making mockery of her price when coming with powerful burst under brilliant ride form Ryan Moore to land Oaks, even with troubled passage; No such trouble in Irish Oaks next time, completing Oaks double in emphatic style on soft ground; Ran a very respectable race when behind Midday last time out and while she should stay this trip fine, she may not improve for it; Major player and is only Group 1 winner in field.
VERDICT: A deservedly strong renewal of a great race, that hopefully will get field of this and better quality in the future. It’s near on impossible to oppose REWILDING, whose stong-finishing Derby third had St Leger written all over it and should be just fine with the trip. However, while he’s a worth fav, he’s a very short price and he has made way for some fantastic betting opportunities on the each/way front. MIDAS TOUCH is a consistent and classy sort who should love this test and is 3lbs better off for a 4 length beating in the Voltiegur. It was remarkably encouraging how well Joshua Tree travelled into the Great Voltigeur before giving way for third, but his stamina might give way. Snow Fairy demands respect bringing top form to the table (not to mention that Oaks winners have an excellent record), and should stay based on here Irish Oaks win. However, it’s notable that Ryan Moore is 2-2 on her and while Eddie Ahern is a good deputy, one has to wonder if the pair don’t have some kind of rapport (doubtful that any jockey other than Moore would have won the Oaks). Dandino is possibly capable of better still with more emphasis on stamina here, although this is a lot tougher than his Gordon Stakes near miss. That said, I’m strongly of the opinion that ARTIC COSMOS should have won that race, and with the possibility of more to come, he’s taken as a second e/w bet.
Champagne Stakes - St Ledger Day 2010
2.10 Doncaster
Neptune Investment Management Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £67,386
Pick: Waiter’s Dream (win)
Approve: Showed promise early on and has run to a high level since, winning the Norfolk Stakes, coming fourth in the July Stakes and third in Prix Robert Papin (unlucky to lose); Once again has penalty but sets a decent standard and will be right there.
Castlemorris King: Well beaten at 100/1 in a Newmarket maiden last month and looks hopelessly out of his depth here.
Karam Albaari: Ran in snatches but still managed to overcome that when making good start in AW 6f AW maiden at Kempton earlier this month, making rapid headway to lead close home; Sure to improve but this is a much tougher race.
Saamidd: Supplemented for this off the back of extremely impressive performance in Newbury maiden, shooting clear up the centre of the Newbury straight and earning quotes of 20/1 for the guineas in the process; Obvious contender here although he’s been handed a tough task today.
Waiter’s Dream: Improving with each runs, confirming promise shown when sixth at Newbury and seventh at Salisbury when making easy work of things at Newbury, making all and having the race in the bag from long way out; Took another step forward when slamming rivals in Acomb Stakes at York, and if coming forward again, has to have serious shot at this and possibly even bigger targets.
Waltz Waltz: Won a weak maiden at Ripon first time out but followed up in good style next time, achieving lot more when beating 3 previous winners (giving weight away to second ) at Newcastle on second start; Well beaten in Vintage and Solario Stakes so fair to say this could be too tough.
VERDICT: A small but classy field, with 2 previous group winners coming up against a 7 length maiden winner from the yard that won this last year. Approve sets a very high standard to shoot at and would be dangerous to considerer overly exposed, but a big field has been present for his 2 Group 2 wins, with rather disappointing runs in small fields in-between. Saamidd is undoubtedly a horse of enormous potential and is very popular after his impressive display at Newbury, but WAITER’S DREAM gets better with every single run and was being talked of as a serious horse after his Acomb Stakes win. He should go close here.
Neptune Investment Management Champagne Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £67,386
Pick: Waiter’s Dream (win)
Approve: Showed promise early on and has run to a high level since, winning the Norfolk Stakes, coming fourth in the July Stakes and third in Prix Robert Papin (unlucky to lose); Once again has penalty but sets a decent standard and will be right there.
Castlemorris King: Well beaten at 100/1 in a Newmarket maiden last month and looks hopelessly out of his depth here.
Karam Albaari: Ran in snatches but still managed to overcome that when making good start in AW 6f AW maiden at Kempton earlier this month, making rapid headway to lead close home; Sure to improve but this is a much tougher race.
Saamidd: Supplemented for this off the back of extremely impressive performance in Newbury maiden, shooting clear up the centre of the Newbury straight and earning quotes of 20/1 for the guineas in the process; Obvious contender here although he’s been handed a tough task today.
Waiter’s Dream: Improving with each runs, confirming promise shown when sixth at Newbury and seventh at Salisbury when making easy work of things at Newbury, making all and having the race in the bag from long way out; Took another step forward when slamming rivals in Acomb Stakes at York, and if coming forward again, has to have serious shot at this and possibly even bigger targets.
Waltz Waltz: Won a weak maiden at Ripon first time out but followed up in good style next time, achieving lot more when beating 3 previous winners (giving weight away to second ) at Newcastle on second start; Well beaten in Vintage and Solario Stakes so fair to say this could be too tough.
VERDICT: A small but classy field, with 2 previous group winners coming up against a 7 length maiden winner from the yard that won this last year. Approve sets a very high standard to shoot at and would be dangerous to considerer overly exposed, but a big field has been present for his 2 Group 2 wins, with rather disappointing runs in small fields in-between. Saamidd is undoubtedly a horse of enormous potential and is very popular after his impressive display at Newbury, but WAITER’S DREAM gets better with every single run and was being talked of as a serious horse after his Acomb Stakes win. He should go close here.
Park Stakes - St Ledger Day 2010
3.50 Doncaster
Eddie Stobart Park Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £90,832
Picks: Premio Loco (win), Rainfall (each/way)
Arabian Gleam: Twice a winner of the this race under Johnny Murtagh, and ran well enough in last year’s renewals; Not been given fair crack of whip this year either, as he needed the run badly first time out and got no run in the Maurice De Gheest last time; No surprise to see him ounce back but absence of Johnny Murtagh major negative.
Balthzaar’s Gift: Has been getting better and better and reached new heights with impressive Group 2 win in this race last year; Hasn’t run at all badly behind Starspangledbanner this year on both occasions, and respectable efforts in the Betfair Cup at Goodwood and Hungerford Stakes last time; More needed here tough.
Cat Junior: Consistent horse who has been hard to win with, despite a number of good runs in strong company; Looked good when winning Group 3 at Meydan before disappointing when ninth behind Calming Influence and in Queen Anne but right back to best with fast closing seconds in Betfair Cup ad Hungerford Stakes; This tougher but always there or thereabouts in race of this type.
Duff: Game front running winner of this race last year, but simply hasn’t been anywhere near as good this season; Those efforts look like a horse who is past his best.
Harrison George: Put in a number of good handicap efforts last term and has already improved on them with 2 wins this year, the first being a handicap romp off a mark of 95 and then a tight win in Conditions company; Has been exposed since though and this is a tough affair.
High Standing: Has made up into a very high class sprinter over the past year and a half and got not run until last furlong in Maurice De Gheest, so very encouraging to see him making such fast late progress into third; If repeating that form, major player but form of Maurcie De Gheest doesn’t look very strong and he will have to deal with many other types.
Himalaya: Made highly encouraging debut over 6f and backed up that with 4th in Coventry Stakes which has worked out very well since (1st 3 infront of him all Group 1 winners since); Hasn’t reached that form but shown admirable consistency since, racking up a series of cracking placed efforts in top handicaps over 6f/7f this summer; Good runs the last twice but hard to win with.
Quqba: Really took off in 2009, improving from handicap company in April to a very near miss in Group 2 at Newmarket in October; Still improving rapidly this year based on his Lockinge Stakes second to Paco Boy, although he did get first run and was comfortably beaten; Hasn’t reached that form since, coming well beaten seventh in Queen Anne and moderate fourth (hampered) in Summer Mile; Only moderate run when third to Shakespearian and no obvious reason why he should build on that.
Palace Moon: Has shown some very smart form this season, third in Wokingham at Ascot and runner-up in Bunbury Cup at Newmarket; Hasn’t been up to listed level latest so hard to see him winning this race.
Premio Loco: Notched up a Group 2 double last backend in Germany and has seemingly improved again this year based on his wins in the Criterion Stakes and Summer Mile; Ran great race to come second to Rip Van Winkle and Canford Cliffs in Sussex and must hold the best chance of taking this If repeating that.
Serious Attitude: Hasn’t reached heights of promising 2 year old career (won Cheverly Park) this year and while she takes a slight drop in class, this is no easy test and stamina questions to answer.
Shakesperian: Tough reliable sort who gained big Goffs Million Mile win last season, holding off Marfach all the way to the line and was a respectable sixth to St Nicholas Abbey in Racing Post Trophy on last start for Mark Johnston; Won well on Godolphin debut at Epsom to start season but had been seemingly exposed since in better races; However, dangerous when allowed to go infront, and beat field rated much higher when allowed lead in Hungerford; Has to be doubts about him if he doesn’t get an easy lead, but one to keep an eye on.
Rainfall: Has improved markedly with every single run, romping home on debut before coming close second in Haydock listed race; Then stepped up on that to land Jersey Stakes and was making late headway in Falmouth Stakes at the end; Weakened fairly easily pout of the frame behind Goldikova in Prix Astarte but drop back in trip will help, and booking of Fallon great help.
VERDICT: These kinds of affairs are fast becoming the most difficult races to solve, with many horses on the fringe of Group 1 company or even Group 1 perfomers dropping back, and handicappers stepping up, not to mention the specialist distance. If Shakesperian gets an easy lead, he will be mightily hard to pass, but hopefully the others will be aware of that possibility today. This is PREMIO LOCO’S best season yet and assuming the ground stays the same, he should take all the beating based on his career best behind Canford Cliffs and Rip Van Winkle. It was hard to pick between RAINFALL and High Standing for the each/way saver, with the former getting the vote o the basis that her form is better.
Eddie Stobart Park Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £90,832
Picks: Premio Loco (win), Rainfall (each/way)
Arabian Gleam: Twice a winner of the this race under Johnny Murtagh, and ran well enough in last year’s renewals; Not been given fair crack of whip this year either, as he needed the run badly first time out and got no run in the Maurice De Gheest last time; No surprise to see him ounce back but absence of Johnny Murtagh major negative.
Balthzaar’s Gift: Has been getting better and better and reached new heights with impressive Group 2 win in this race last year; Hasn’t run at all badly behind Starspangledbanner this year on both occasions, and respectable efforts in the Betfair Cup at Goodwood and Hungerford Stakes last time; More needed here tough.
Cat Junior: Consistent horse who has been hard to win with, despite a number of good runs in strong company; Looked good when winning Group 3 at Meydan before disappointing when ninth behind Calming Influence and in Queen Anne but right back to best with fast closing seconds in Betfair Cup ad Hungerford Stakes; This tougher but always there or thereabouts in race of this type.
Duff: Game front running winner of this race last year, but simply hasn’t been anywhere near as good this season; Those efforts look like a horse who is past his best.
Harrison George: Put in a number of good handicap efforts last term and has already improved on them with 2 wins this year, the first being a handicap romp off a mark of 95 and then a tight win in Conditions company; Has been exposed since though and this is a tough affair.
High Standing: Has made up into a very high class sprinter over the past year and a half and got not run until last furlong in Maurice De Gheest, so very encouraging to see him making such fast late progress into third; If repeating that form, major player but form of Maurcie De Gheest doesn’t look very strong and he will have to deal with many other types.
Himalaya: Made highly encouraging debut over 6f and backed up that with 4th in Coventry Stakes which has worked out very well since (1st 3 infront of him all Group 1 winners since); Hasn’t reached that form but shown admirable consistency since, racking up a series of cracking placed efforts in top handicaps over 6f/7f this summer; Good runs the last twice but hard to win with.
Quqba: Really took off in 2009, improving from handicap company in April to a very near miss in Group 2 at Newmarket in October; Still improving rapidly this year based on his Lockinge Stakes second to Paco Boy, although he did get first run and was comfortably beaten; Hasn’t reached that form since, coming well beaten seventh in Queen Anne and moderate fourth (hampered) in Summer Mile; Only moderate run when third to Shakespearian and no obvious reason why he should build on that.
Palace Moon: Has shown some very smart form this season, third in Wokingham at Ascot and runner-up in Bunbury Cup at Newmarket; Hasn’t been up to listed level latest so hard to see him winning this race.
Premio Loco: Notched up a Group 2 double last backend in Germany and has seemingly improved again this year based on his wins in the Criterion Stakes and Summer Mile; Ran great race to come second to Rip Van Winkle and Canford Cliffs in Sussex and must hold the best chance of taking this If repeating that.
Serious Attitude: Hasn’t reached heights of promising 2 year old career (won Cheverly Park) this year and while she takes a slight drop in class, this is no easy test and stamina questions to answer.
Shakesperian: Tough reliable sort who gained big Goffs Million Mile win last season, holding off Marfach all the way to the line and was a respectable sixth to St Nicholas Abbey in Racing Post Trophy on last start for Mark Johnston; Won well on Godolphin debut at Epsom to start season but had been seemingly exposed since in better races; However, dangerous when allowed to go infront, and beat field rated much higher when allowed lead in Hungerford; Has to be doubts about him if he doesn’t get an easy lead, but one to keep an eye on.
Rainfall: Has improved markedly with every single run, romping home on debut before coming close second in Haydock listed race; Then stepped up on that to land Jersey Stakes and was making late headway in Falmouth Stakes at the end; Weakened fairly easily pout of the frame behind Goldikova in Prix Astarte but drop back in trip will help, and booking of Fallon great help.
VERDICT: These kinds of affairs are fast becoming the most difficult races to solve, with many horses on the fringe of Group 1 company or even Group 1 perfomers dropping back, and handicappers stepping up, not to mention the specialist distance. If Shakesperian gets an easy lead, he will be mightily hard to pass, but hopefully the others will be aware of that possibility today. This is PREMIO LOCO’S best season yet and assuming the ground stays the same, he should take all the beating based on his career best behind Canford Cliffs and Rip Van Winkle. It was hard to pick between RAINFALL and High Standing for the each/way saver, with the former getting the vote o the basis that her form is better.
Friday, 10 September 2010
Flying Childers Stakes - St Ledger Meeting Day 3
1.35 Doncaster
Polypipe Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £45,416 - Draw Advantage: High
Picks: Zebedee (win), Keratiya (each/way)
Artic Feeling: Made winning debut at Southwell in March and proved most consistent since; Went in again in small field event at Musselburgh but work to do to reverse form with New Planet from last meeting at York.
Bathwick Bear: Took form to new level when winning 6f listed race at Ripon recently by neck from Mayson (holds useful form, Chilworth Lad behind as well); Behind New Planet over this trip at York prior to that.
Black Moth: Won maiden at Bath in June and minor event at Beverley in July; Behind Bathwick Bear last time and that form needs a lot of improving on, despite the stable’s 2 year olds being in very good form.
Cocktail Charlie: Won on Ripon debut and very useful effort when short-head second to Excel Bolt at Musselburgh in June; Needs more but drop to 5f should help (pulled too hard behind Bathwick Bear last time).
Dinkum Diamond: Comfortable success in maiden was greatly improved on when winning listed race in nice style at Sandown; Came up short in Norfolk although he wasn’t at best that day (had sore joints afterwards);Respectable run in Nunthorpe but that form hard to rate too highly at the moment.
Face The Problem: Rattled off 3 straight wins in July, completing hat-trick with 6-length nursery win; Even allowing for the fact he sweated and was on the wrong side of the course (major disadvantage, 2nd of only 4 in group), was rather disappointing in listed race at York latest and this is certainly a tougher test.
New Planet: Well thought of (subject of really strong support for winning debut) and took another step in right direction with game success in York listed event last time; More to come, which will be needed in this tougher event.
Zebedee: Looked like a class colt when bolting up on first 2 runs; Came up short in Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, but was up in firing line all the way and may have suffered from not getting enough cover; Unbeaten in 3 since, readily landing listed event, Molecomb Stakes and Timeform Millions race, all easily; Drop back to 5f should help and powerful turn of foot a potent asset; May be one to beat.
Electric Waves: Gets better with every run, taking maiden at Warwick, nursery at and then Newbury listed event last month; May have more left in him and form of latter event working out well, so one to give serious thought to.
Karatiya: Won pretty easy race in the Provinces first time out but showed that did not offer much of a test when getting caught due to greenness next time out; Improved for experience of that when coming with blistering late run to nail Irish Field in photo finish (possibly little lucky to get there when she did), benefitting from getting cover in race (Form got a big boost in shape of Prix Robert Papin win for runner up);Flopped at 6f latest but if forgiven that run, major player as she’s well up to this level.
Ladies’ Choice: Proved her shock maiden win was no fluke when Pushing Queen Mary second Meow to a short head in listed event at the Curragh last time; Will need a lot more than that to get seriously involved though, despite class of winner on last run.
Meow: Superbly-bred sort who showed herself one of the best 2-y-o fillies when second in Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, before a gutsy win in Curragh listed event last time (beat Ladies’ Choice by a neck); Much better than bare form implies as she had been given a long break (reportedly heaved a furlong out) and leading player here.
The Thrill Is Gone: in the frame in all 4 starts since winning her maiden at Lingfield in June, having been exposed when third behind Electric Waves at Newbury last time; More is needed than that and we may have seen best of her.
VERDICT: A strong renewal of this Group 2 where a good half dozen can be given a decent chance, namely the bang in form ZEBEDEE, whose lightning turn of foot could be the clincher, with an each/way saver on KERATIYA, who has the same turn of foot and might be best forgiven her flop last time over 6f. Queen Mary second Meow should be spot on for this, while York listed winner New Planet and Newbury scorer Eclectic Waves will have more to come.
Polypipe Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £45,416 - Draw Advantage: High
Picks: Zebedee (win), Keratiya (each/way)
Artic Feeling: Made winning debut at Southwell in March and proved most consistent since; Went in again in small field event at Musselburgh but work to do to reverse form with New Planet from last meeting at York.
Bathwick Bear: Took form to new level when winning 6f listed race at Ripon recently by neck from Mayson (holds useful form, Chilworth Lad behind as well); Behind New Planet over this trip at York prior to that.
Black Moth: Won maiden at Bath in June and minor event at Beverley in July; Behind Bathwick Bear last time and that form needs a lot of improving on, despite the stable’s 2 year olds being in very good form.
Cocktail Charlie: Won on Ripon debut and very useful effort when short-head second to Excel Bolt at Musselburgh in June; Needs more but drop to 5f should help (pulled too hard behind Bathwick Bear last time).
Dinkum Diamond: Comfortable success in maiden was greatly improved on when winning listed race in nice style at Sandown; Came up short in Norfolk although he wasn’t at best that day (had sore joints afterwards);Respectable run in Nunthorpe but that form hard to rate too highly at the moment.
Face The Problem: Rattled off 3 straight wins in July, completing hat-trick with 6-length nursery win; Even allowing for the fact he sweated and was on the wrong side of the course (major disadvantage, 2nd of only 4 in group), was rather disappointing in listed race at York latest and this is certainly a tougher test.
New Planet: Well thought of (subject of really strong support for winning debut) and took another step in right direction with game success in York listed event last time; More to come, which will be needed in this tougher event.
Zebedee: Looked like a class colt when bolting up on first 2 runs; Came up short in Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, but was up in firing line all the way and may have suffered from not getting enough cover; Unbeaten in 3 since, readily landing listed event, Molecomb Stakes and Timeform Millions race, all easily; Drop back to 5f should help and powerful turn of foot a potent asset; May be one to beat.
Electric Waves: Gets better with every run, taking maiden at Warwick, nursery at and then Newbury listed event last month; May have more left in him and form of latter event working out well, so one to give serious thought to.
Karatiya: Won pretty easy race in the Provinces first time out but showed that did not offer much of a test when getting caught due to greenness next time out; Improved for experience of that when coming with blistering late run to nail Irish Field in photo finish (possibly little lucky to get there when she did), benefitting from getting cover in race (Form got a big boost in shape of Prix Robert Papin win for runner up);Flopped at 6f latest but if forgiven that run, major player as she’s well up to this level.
Ladies’ Choice: Proved her shock maiden win was no fluke when Pushing Queen Mary second Meow to a short head in listed event at the Curragh last time; Will need a lot more than that to get seriously involved though, despite class of winner on last run.
Meow: Superbly-bred sort who showed herself one of the best 2-y-o fillies when second in Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, before a gutsy win in Curragh listed event last time (beat Ladies’ Choice by a neck); Much better than bare form implies as she had been given a long break (reportedly heaved a furlong out) and leading player here.
The Thrill Is Gone: in the frame in all 4 starts since winning her maiden at Lingfield in June, having been exposed when third behind Electric Waves at Newbury last time; More is needed than that and we may have seen best of her.
VERDICT: A strong renewal of this Group 2 where a good half dozen can be given a decent chance, namely the bang in form ZEBEDEE, whose lightning turn of foot could be the clincher, with an each/way saver on KERATIYA, who has the same turn of foot and might be best forgiven her flop last time over 6f. Queen Mary second Meow should be spot on for this, while York listed winner New Planet and Newbury scorer Eclectic Waves will have more to come.
May Hill Stakes 2010 - St Ledger Meeting Day 3
3.15 Doncaster
Keepmoat 'Delivering Community Regeneration' May Hill Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) (Str) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £45,416
Pick: White Moonstone (win)
Al Madina: Driven out to draw away on debut at Carlisle, ending up a convincing winner; Well beaten on first try into Group company at Ascot and was well behind White Moonstone last time.
Fenella Fudge: While she has shaped well in 2 good 7f fillies' maidens (one at Glorious Goodwood), a big leap forward is required to get competitive in this grade.
Lily Again: Won 6f Kempton maiden before good second in Chantilly listed contest (had to give 10lbs to the winner) and bettered that again when fifth behind Memory in Cherry Hinton; Continued in same vein with listed win and fourth in Debutante (form of that has worked out very well) and step up to 1m may get some more improvement out of her.
Midnight Caller: Good second in warm C&D maiden on debut (jumped at a camera, otherwise she would have won) and didn't have to improve to go one better in easy fashion at Leicester last time; Comes from a red hot stable and well worth step up to this grade, so major player.
Musharakaat: Fillies’ Mile entry who created good impression when winning 13 runner AW maiden easily travelling well out wide and quickening ahead in final 2f; Put in place when fifth to White Moonstone in Newmarket Group 3last time out and hard to see her reversing form .
Sonning Rose: Shown pretty high level of form on first 3 runs, coming runner up to Gimcrack second Crown Prosecutor on this track on debut; Did well to win on second run before good second in Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot; Didn’t handle soft ground last time and well worth a chance to show her true form over a trip that should suit with Ryan Moore on top.
White Moonstone: Made a decent debut when getting better of more experienced Florestans Match at Ascot, coming like a train down stands rail; Improved again when making it 2 from 2 in style as she landed Sweet Solera Stakes, looking like a class act going places in process; That sets that standard here.
VERDICT: It would be unwise to dismiss Lily Again (who holds some useful form and could improve for the step to 1m), Sonning Rose (who is much better than she showed at Goodwood last time on suitable ground), or Midnight Caller (immense prospect coming from an inform yard)btu surely the one to beat is WHITE MOONSTONE, who looked like a filly going places when making it 2 from 2 in the Sweet Solera last time and may have more to give.
Keepmoat 'Delivering Community Regeneration' May Hill Stakes (Fillies' Group 2) (Str) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £45,416
Pick: White Moonstone (win)
Al Madina: Driven out to draw away on debut at Carlisle, ending up a convincing winner; Well beaten on first try into Group company at Ascot and was well behind White Moonstone last time.
Fenella Fudge: While she has shaped well in 2 good 7f fillies' maidens (one at Glorious Goodwood), a big leap forward is required to get competitive in this grade.
Lily Again: Won 6f Kempton maiden before good second in Chantilly listed contest (had to give 10lbs to the winner) and bettered that again when fifth behind Memory in Cherry Hinton; Continued in same vein with listed win and fourth in Debutante (form of that has worked out very well) and step up to 1m may get some more improvement out of her.
Midnight Caller: Good second in warm C&D maiden on debut (jumped at a camera, otherwise she would have won) and didn't have to improve to go one better in easy fashion at Leicester last time; Comes from a red hot stable and well worth step up to this grade, so major player.
Musharakaat: Fillies’ Mile entry who created good impression when winning 13 runner AW maiden easily travelling well out wide and quickening ahead in final 2f; Put in place when fifth to White Moonstone in Newmarket Group 3last time out and hard to see her reversing form .
Sonning Rose: Shown pretty high level of form on first 3 runs, coming runner up to Gimcrack second Crown Prosecutor on this track on debut; Did well to win on second run before good second in Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot; Didn’t handle soft ground last time and well worth a chance to show her true form over a trip that should suit with Ryan Moore on top.
White Moonstone: Made a decent debut when getting better of more experienced Florestans Match at Ascot, coming like a train down stands rail; Improved again when making it 2 from 2 in style as she landed Sweet Solera Stakes, looking like a class act going places in process; That sets that standard here.
VERDICT: It would be unwise to dismiss Lily Again (who holds some useful form and could improve for the step to 1m), Sonning Rose (who is much better than she showed at Goodwood last time on suitable ground), or Midnight Caller (immense prospect coming from an inform yard)btu surely the one to beat is WHITE MOONSTONE, who looked like a filly going places when making it 2 from 2 in the Sweet Solera last time and may have more to give.
Doncaster Cup 2010 - St Ledger Meeting Day 3
2.40 Doncaster
Doncaster Cup (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £56,770
Pick: Opinion Poll (win)
Opinion Poll: Progressive sort who fairly romped away with big 12f handicap last year at Ascot and is even better with cut in the ground, as he showed when looking like Group horse all over when cantering away at Nottingham at beginning of season; Has since been hit and miss but showed his best form when winning Lonsdale Cup and major chance here on that form.
Askar Tau: One of leading stayers in 2009, completing Group 2 double with success in tis race, having taken Lonsdale; Would be right there on that form, but he ran abysmally at Ascot on return in April and has not been seen since.
Darley Sun: Couldn’t stop improving last year, romping away with 2m handicap at Ascot before only just losing out to Askar Tau in Lonsdale Cup and then hacking up in Cesarawitch on final start; Since been switched to Godolphin hand hasn’t regained that form, and has plenty to prove although conditions are set for him to run well if finding form.
Dirar: Successful hurdler who resumed progress on the Flat this year, charging through field to take Ebor at York last month with career best effort under superb ride from Jamie Spencer (helped by a generous pace); This is much tougher though and longer trip is a possible worry for him.
Electrolysis: Won 2m listed race at Ascot in 2009 and showed further improvement when third to Illustrious Blue in Sagaro Stakes there in April; Possibly didn’t have to improve to come second in Goodwood Cup behind Illustrious Blue and seemingly beaten fair and square in Lonsdale Cup, so needs more.
Pointilliste: Won Group 3 and listed event in France and has generally been a smart performer in France up to 15.5f for past couple of years; Didn’t shown much on debut for new yard, though, and this isn't any easier.
Samuel: Third in Yorkshire Cup 2 years ago before 2 useful efforts behind Tranquil Tiger and Distinction; Ran very well on comeback from long break first time out this season and bettered that with fine second to Opinion Poll in Lonsdale Cup last time, and major player with a 3lbs pull.
Tastahil: Did nothing but improve last year, taking his form to a new level with a nice all the way success at Newbury in soft ground before good string of efforts in group company; Gallant front running effort in Chester Cup under topweight but outclassed in Gold Cup and once again came up short in pattern company at York last time.
Dayia: Has stamina for this trip having finished placed in the Cesarewitch and the Ascot Stakes, but those efforts not good enough at this level.
Motrice: Highly-progressive filly, having won last 3 on trot over 1m6f when coming a good third in Moet Hennessy Fillies' Stakes (form given major boosts by Eastern Aria, Polly’s Mark and Rosika since); Was staying on but this test and trip demands more, although she cannot be ruled out with more to come receiving so much weight.
VERDICT: An intriguing and solid renewal. Based on their close finish in the Lonsdale not much will split Electrolyser, Samuel and OPINION POLL, with the latter just preferred on account of the extra improvement the forecast rain should bring in him, not to mention that he was able to hold them all off on fast ground last time. In receipt of so much weight, it’s impossible to discount Motrice, while this will be much tougher than the Ebor for the progressive Dirar. Conditions are ideal for last year’s 1-2 of Askar Tau and Darley Sun if they find their best form but they have a lot of questions to answer.
Doncaster Cup (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £56,770
Pick: Opinion Poll (win)
Opinion Poll: Progressive sort who fairly romped away with big 12f handicap last year at Ascot and is even better with cut in the ground, as he showed when looking like Group horse all over when cantering away at Nottingham at beginning of season; Has since been hit and miss but showed his best form when winning Lonsdale Cup and major chance here on that form.
Askar Tau: One of leading stayers in 2009, completing Group 2 double with success in tis race, having taken Lonsdale; Would be right there on that form, but he ran abysmally at Ascot on return in April and has not been seen since.
Darley Sun: Couldn’t stop improving last year, romping away with 2m handicap at Ascot before only just losing out to Askar Tau in Lonsdale Cup and then hacking up in Cesarawitch on final start; Since been switched to Godolphin hand hasn’t regained that form, and has plenty to prove although conditions are set for him to run well if finding form.
Dirar: Successful hurdler who resumed progress on the Flat this year, charging through field to take Ebor at York last month with career best effort under superb ride from Jamie Spencer (helped by a generous pace); This is much tougher though and longer trip is a possible worry for him.
Electrolysis: Won 2m listed race at Ascot in 2009 and showed further improvement when third to Illustrious Blue in Sagaro Stakes there in April; Possibly didn’t have to improve to come second in Goodwood Cup behind Illustrious Blue and seemingly beaten fair and square in Lonsdale Cup, so needs more.
Pointilliste: Won Group 3 and listed event in France and has generally been a smart performer in France up to 15.5f for past couple of years; Didn’t shown much on debut for new yard, though, and this isn't any easier.
Samuel: Third in Yorkshire Cup 2 years ago before 2 useful efforts behind Tranquil Tiger and Distinction; Ran very well on comeback from long break first time out this season and bettered that with fine second to Opinion Poll in Lonsdale Cup last time, and major player with a 3lbs pull.
Tastahil: Did nothing but improve last year, taking his form to a new level with a nice all the way success at Newbury in soft ground before good string of efforts in group company; Gallant front running effort in Chester Cup under topweight but outclassed in Gold Cup and once again came up short in pattern company at York last time.
Dayia: Has stamina for this trip having finished placed in the Cesarewitch and the Ascot Stakes, but those efforts not good enough at this level.
Motrice: Highly-progressive filly, having won last 3 on trot over 1m6f when coming a good third in Moet Hennessy Fillies' Stakes (form given major boosts by Eastern Aria, Polly’s Mark and Rosika since); Was staying on but this test and trip demands more, although she cannot be ruled out with more to come receiving so much weight.
VERDICT: An intriguing and solid renewal. Based on their close finish in the Lonsdale not much will split Electrolyser, Samuel and OPINION POLL, with the latter just preferred on account of the extra improvement the forecast rain should bring in him, not to mention that he was able to hold them all off on fast ground last time. In receipt of so much weight, it’s impossible to discount Motrice, while this will be much tougher than the Ebor for the progressive Dirar. Conditions are ideal for last year’s 1-2 of Askar Tau and Darley Sun if they find their best form but they have a lot of questions to answer.
Frank Whittle Conditions Stakes 2010 - St Ledger Meeting Day 3
4.25 Doncaster
Frank Whittle Partnership Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (2YO only)
Winner £10,904
Pick: Frankel
Farhh: Made a most impressive start in running away with 7f Newmarket maiden on July Course; While he couldn’t have done it much easier, that maiden looks below scratch for the track; Smart prospect nevertheless and should be there at finish.
Frankel: Very highly regarded sort (Royal Lodge and Racing Post Trophy Entry) who made serious impression when earning quotes of 25-1 for next year's Derby (Stan James go as short as 16’s)and 25/1 for the Guineas when winning a better-than-average maiden in style at Newmarket on debut; Looks set for bigger things and will be very hard to beat.
Colorado Gold: Had limitations exposed when he came unstuck in listed race in France last time and unlikely to be good enough to land this against some exciting prospects.
Diamond Geezah: Relished step up to 7f when opening account at Ayr in July, and has run well in competitive races since, especially last time behind Wotton Bassett at York; On the face of it, this easier but he tackled some very smart sorts here who have a lot to offer.
Rainbow Springs: Selkirk Fillies’ Mile entry who is a half-sister to useful juvenile Ridge Dance; Bred to know her job first time out and presumably connections think a fair bit of her to be entering her in this for a debut run; Especially interesting that she gets a pretty massive weight concession, meaning she may not have to do a lot to get involved.
VERDICT: It’s impossible to dismiss Rainbow Springs in receipt of such a generous weight concession, especially for a yard that send good juveniles here who are having a fairly hot streak of late. Both Farhh and FRANKEL looked smart prospects when making winning debuts at Newmarket and the latter achieved a lot more in winning his, and as such, gets the pick.
Frank Whittle Partnership Conditions Stakes (Class 2) (2YO only)
Winner £10,904
Pick: Frankel
Farhh: Made a most impressive start in running away with 7f Newmarket maiden on July Course; While he couldn’t have done it much easier, that maiden looks below scratch for the track; Smart prospect nevertheless and should be there at finish.
Frankel: Very highly regarded sort (Royal Lodge and Racing Post Trophy Entry) who made serious impression when earning quotes of 25-1 for next year's Derby (Stan James go as short as 16’s)and 25/1 for the Guineas when winning a better-than-average maiden in style at Newmarket on debut; Looks set for bigger things and will be very hard to beat.
Colorado Gold: Had limitations exposed when he came unstuck in listed race in France last time and unlikely to be good enough to land this against some exciting prospects.
Diamond Geezah: Relished step up to 7f when opening account at Ayr in July, and has run well in competitive races since, especially last time behind Wotton Bassett at York; On the face of it, this easier but he tackled some very smart sorts here who have a lot to offer.
Rainbow Springs: Selkirk Fillies’ Mile entry who is a half-sister to useful juvenile Ridge Dance; Bred to know her job first time out and presumably connections think a fair bit of her to be entering her in this for a debut run; Especially interesting that she gets a pretty massive weight concession, meaning she may not have to do a lot to get involved.
VERDICT: It’s impossible to dismiss Rainbow Springs in receipt of such a generous weight concession, especially for a yard that send good juveniles here who are having a fairly hot streak of late. Both Farhh and FRANKEL looked smart prospects when making winning debuts at Newmarket and the latter achieved a lot more in winning his, and as such, gets the pick.
Ladbrokes Mallard Handicap & Supporting Races 10th September 2010 - St Ledger Festival Day 2
Ladbrokes Mallard Handicap (Class 2) (3YO plus) (2.05) - Mount Athos would have won the Melrose Stakes a lot easier if he hadn’t hung so badly (a trait which may well cost him here) but ZUIDER ZEE (each/way) does enjoy a hefty 11lbs pull and can definitely get competitive off bottom weight for the inform Buick/Gosden team, assuming he gets given less to do than when fourth last time. Tactian also ran well, but at the weights he has a very tough task, having gone up 8lbs for a rather flattering second. MAXIM GORKY (each/way) enjoyed getting his toe in when beating market leader Plymouth Rock over 1m 7f at Newmarket last time and showed a good attitude, suggesting he has more in hand, An 8lbs rise might be ok for him and with rain liely to help, he gets the second vote. Hanoverian Baron Took another step forward behind Forte Dei Marmi at Sandown last time and bound to go well if staying 1¾m at first attempt, but this is no easier and he does have to prove he stays on a stiff galloping track, which coincidentally should suit Jedi, a solid handicapper who Ryan Moore picked over Maxim Gorky. You can write off Fortuni’s last run as he was sick after bolting in at Epsom and he had no chance on the far side, Whether he can cope with his mark is another thing. A good work is thrown in for Precision Break, who is on a very lenient mark and should go well with Jamie Spencer on board. 20/1 is too big.
Brakes Fresh Ideas Handicap (Class 2) (3YO plus) (3.50) - A total minefield for punters and a stiff gallop over 6f on rain-softened ground could be just fine for CIRTUS STAR (each/way), considering that he was smart enough to defy his low draw at Glorious Goodwood last time. Another horse who could be suited by conditions is MEDICAN MAN (each/way), who should like a slow ground/strong gallop race and is very useful if judged on his Ascot win earlier this year. He’s had excuses since and a visor may just do the trick. Irish Heartbeat hasn’t been at his best since winning at the Lincoln meeting first time out this year but he will appreciate cut and has a good claimer on board in Lee Topliss. Kaptain Kirkup could be well handicapped seeing as he was bolting up off an 8lbs lower mark earlier this year and has been given stuff assignment. Damika only went up 4lbs for landing a pretty hefty pot in the Great St Wilfrid and rates a threat, while Hoof It’s progression may not have stalled based on his last 3 runs and he should be kept onside. Good words are thrown in for Pastoral Player (classsy but own worst enemy), Damien (Smart at best but proving very hard to place) and especially Mr David, who is stepping down in class after showing some very smart from last year and may well be up to a mark of 104 considering that he should be much fitter now then when running at York last time.
Universal Recycling Classified Stakes (Class 3) (3YO plus) (4.55) - 3-y-os scored a 1-2 in this last year and WILLING FOE (win) looked like he could take a race like this when scoring readily from a subsequent winner in C&D maiden in July. There’s a fair chance he has a good deal more to offer and he's a likely sort. Opera Gal and the Witch Doctor should provide the biggest threats.
Brakes Fresh Ideas Handicap (Class 2) (3YO plus) (3.50) - A total minefield for punters and a stiff gallop over 6f on rain-softened ground could be just fine for CIRTUS STAR (each/way), considering that he was smart enough to defy his low draw at Glorious Goodwood last time. Another horse who could be suited by conditions is MEDICAN MAN (each/way), who should like a slow ground/strong gallop race and is very useful if judged on his Ascot win earlier this year. He’s had excuses since and a visor may just do the trick. Irish Heartbeat hasn’t been at his best since winning at the Lincoln meeting first time out this year but he will appreciate cut and has a good claimer on board in Lee Topliss. Kaptain Kirkup could be well handicapped seeing as he was bolting up off an 8lbs lower mark earlier this year and has been given stuff assignment. Damika only went up 4lbs for landing a pretty hefty pot in the Great St Wilfrid and rates a threat, while Hoof It’s progression may not have stalled based on his last 3 runs and he should be kept onside. Good words are thrown in for Pastoral Player (classsy but own worst enemy), Damien (Smart at best but proving very hard to place) and especially Mr David, who is stepping down in class after showing some very smart from last year and may well be up to a mark of 104 considering that he should be much fitter now then when running at York last time.
Universal Recycling Classified Stakes (Class 3) (3YO plus) (4.55) - 3-y-os scored a 1-2 in this last year and WILLING FOE (win) looked like he could take a race like this when scoring readily from a subsequent winner in C&D maiden in July. There’s a fair chance he has a good deal more to offer and he's a likely sort. Opera Gal and the Witch Doctor should provide the biggest threats.
Tuesday, 7 September 2010
Football - England v Swiss
Just popping in to advise and ask if anyone had any bets on the games tonight??
# Swiss (draw no bet)
# Swiss 1-0 England
# Swiss (draw no bet)
# Swiss 1-0 England
Scarbrough Stakes 2010 - Day 1, Doncaster St Ledger Festival
3.10 Doncaster
Scarbrough Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (2YO plus)
Winner £23,704 - Draw Advantage: High
Pick: Rose Blossom (win & each/way)
Burning Thread: Has made a marked imporvemt in 3 starts this year, coming a fair second in a Median Auction Maiden Stakes before pulling out plenty more to win at Beverley in May, and confirmed himself a progressive sort when following up in listed race at Sandown following month; Had little in hand that day and this much stronger affair, with tons of pace likely to be poured on from front.
Captain Dunne: Has progressed again this year, winning Gosforth Park Cup off a mark of 100 in June; Has run well in listed/conditions company since, but this is a tough race and he has to reverse form with a lot of horses.
Group Therapy: Improved a ton for joining the Noseda yard, fairly bolting up in conditions race at Beverley before coming a close second to Triple Aspect at Sandown (decent event) and ahead of several of these rivals when second in King George Stakes at Goodwood (no reason why he shouldn't confirm that); Form working out well and strong pace will only help.
Moorhouse Lad: Clearly not as good as he once was and well beaten behind Group Aspect, Spin Cycle, Captain Dunne and likely to be back marker here.
Prohibit: Split Mister Hughie and Captain Dunne when second in Beverley Bullet last time, having to wait for a run as customary tact8cs demand; Possibly unlucky but same thing will happen again and winner that day had to go through horses as well, not to mention he has a rather low draw; More needed.
Tax Free: Had been running well for the last 3 seasons running, but had rather lost his form until coming a staying on second in the Flying Five at the Curragh last time; That form good enough to take a major hand here, and will get strong pace to run at.
Rose Blossom: Impressive wins either side of her Queen Mary 7th last year, which is easily forgiven (raced impossible pace to keep that day) and ran respectably here in Flying Childers at end of season, showing plenty of promise; Blitzed rivals over 5f at York to begin season and when things have gone her way, she has been way too good for 9 rivals in Group 3 contest; Showed blistering pace in Nunthorpe and creditably only beaten 3 & ½ lengths; This lesser test and must have chance despite draw.
Star Rover: Thrived on a busy juvenile campaign last season, winning 5 times and running creditably having been racing very early on in season; Run well on occasions this season and won minor event last time but will do well to have impact in this company.
City Dancer: Better than result last time, but often spoils chance at the start and well behind most of these in listed/Group 3 this season.
Impressible: Won 4 handicaps for Eric Alston last season; Only shown form once in 4 starts for current yard, however.
Look Busy: Has done connections proud over last 2 season but holding her form less and less now and hard to fancy.
Julius Geezer: Won minor event at Chester in May, and improved further when third in listed race at York; Plenty more needed again to place here, even if it’s worth taking note of the fact the stable saddled a juvenile to be placed in this last season.
VERDICT: There’s always the proviso that ROSE BLOSSOM will go off too fast and set the race up for closers Prohibit, Tax Free and notably Group Therapy, but her best form will make her very tough to beat (not least the blistering speed she showed in the Nunthorpe) and she’s a very fair betting proposition.
Scarbrough Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (2YO plus)
Winner £23,704 - Draw Advantage: High
Pick: Rose Blossom (win & each/way)
Burning Thread: Has made a marked imporvemt in 3 starts this year, coming a fair second in a Median Auction Maiden Stakes before pulling out plenty more to win at Beverley in May, and confirmed himself a progressive sort when following up in listed race at Sandown following month; Had little in hand that day and this much stronger affair, with tons of pace likely to be poured on from front.
Captain Dunne: Has progressed again this year, winning Gosforth Park Cup off a mark of 100 in June; Has run well in listed/conditions company since, but this is a tough race and he has to reverse form with a lot of horses.
Group Therapy: Improved a ton for joining the Noseda yard, fairly bolting up in conditions race at Beverley before coming a close second to Triple Aspect at Sandown (decent event) and ahead of several of these rivals when second in King George Stakes at Goodwood (no reason why he shouldn't confirm that); Form working out well and strong pace will only help.
Moorhouse Lad: Clearly not as good as he once was and well beaten behind Group Aspect, Spin Cycle, Captain Dunne and likely to be back marker here.
Prohibit: Split Mister Hughie and Captain Dunne when second in Beverley Bullet last time, having to wait for a run as customary tact8cs demand; Possibly unlucky but same thing will happen again and winner that day had to go through horses as well, not to mention he has a rather low draw; More needed.
Tax Free: Had been running well for the last 3 seasons running, but had rather lost his form until coming a staying on second in the Flying Five at the Curragh last time; That form good enough to take a major hand here, and will get strong pace to run at.
Rose Blossom: Impressive wins either side of her Queen Mary 7th last year, which is easily forgiven (raced impossible pace to keep that day) and ran respectably here in Flying Childers at end of season, showing plenty of promise; Blitzed rivals over 5f at York to begin season and when things have gone her way, she has been way too good for 9 rivals in Group 3 contest; Showed blistering pace in Nunthorpe and creditably only beaten 3 & ½ lengths; This lesser test and must have chance despite draw.
Star Rover: Thrived on a busy juvenile campaign last season, winning 5 times and running creditably having been racing very early on in season; Run well on occasions this season and won minor event last time but will do well to have impact in this company.
City Dancer: Better than result last time, but often spoils chance at the start and well behind most of these in listed/Group 3 this season.
Impressible: Won 4 handicaps for Eric Alston last season; Only shown form once in 4 starts for current yard, however.
Look Busy: Has done connections proud over last 2 season but holding her form less and less now and hard to fancy.
Julius Geezer: Won minor event at Chester in May, and improved further when third in listed race at York; Plenty more needed again to place here, even if it’s worth taking note of the fact the stable saddled a juvenile to be placed in this last season.
VERDICT: There’s always the proviso that ROSE BLOSSOM will go off too fast and set the race up for closers Prohibit, Tax Free and notably Group Therapy, but her best form will make her very tough to beat (not least the blistering speed she showed in the Nunthorpe) and she’s a very fair betting proposition.
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