Preakness Stakes

11.12 Pimlico
Preakness Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £370,370
Track: Fast Distance: 1m1f110y

Picks: Super Saver (win), Schoolyard Dreams (e/w)

Aikneite: Won well on debut before getting well beaten on his first Grade 1 start in the Three Chimneys (Ran with credit) behind Dublin; Held in seven runs in Graded company since and yet to show he´s really good enough for a race like this.

Schoolyard Dreams: Fast improving horse who is getting rapidly better with age and experience, as he showed when running huge race in Tampa Bay Derby, surging to the front with ease before the straight, only to idle and be caught on the line; Admittedly he is 6lbs worse off with Super Saver but looked best horse in race all over that day; Shouldn’t be judged on run in Wood Memorial latest (mucus in his throat in the build-up, race came too soon, steady pace no use) and major longshot.

Pleasant Prince: Beaten just a nose by Derby runner-up Ice Box three starts back, but his two subsequent efforts well short of that form, including when well behind Aikenite latest; hat form gives him very little recommendable chance.

Northern Giant: Has run some very good races but been well held in three runs in Graded company, including when last in the Arkansas Derby (Super Saver second) latest.

Yawaan Twist: Credible chance being that he’s only had 4 runs and has showed himself to be smart when runner-up in both the Gotham and the Illinois Derby; More needed but possibility that hse can improve considerably.

Jackson Bend: Didn´t get the best of trips in the Kentucky Derby and might not have been suited by the sloppy track, but yet to prove he´s up to this level.

Lookin At Lucky: Super talented horse as has been shown by his 4-5 record as a 2 year old but has met with trouble on four of his next 5 starts since, notably when sent off favourite for the Kentucky Derby, only to lose his chance when squeezed up against the rail, having started from the unfavourable inside stall; Possible we haven’t seen best of him yet and different test this week can only help.

Super Saver: Although a fine ride and sloppy track (combined with dream run inside the rail) helped him a lot when winning the Kentucky Derby, he still showed himself to be a rapidly improving colt and won with plenty in hand; Has a fair bit in hand based on that from and must be given every chance of a follow up here, while it’s worth nothing that his connections only worry (less than 2 weeks to get ready) applies to most, if not all of the runners here.
Caracortado: Although he ran on well after losing his place in the Santa Anita Derby latest, he needs to improve for the return to dirt, which doesn’t seem likely as 4 out of his 5 wins are on synthetics; Not discounted by any means though.

Paddy O’ Prado: Ran a huge race in the Kentucky Derby to be third and that form automatically puts him on premises here; No obvious excuse, though, so work to do to reverse form with Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky should get closer with a clearer run.

First Dude: Probably better than he showed when fifth in the Florida Derby and was only 1l behind Paddy O´Prado in the Blue Grass on synthetics last time; That horse improved markedly since though.

Dublin: Creditable seventh in the Kentucky Derby, but that his sixth straight defeat since Grade 1 success last year; positive jokey change but doesn’t strike me as quite good enough here.

VERDICT: The second leg of the Triple Crown gives us an interesting race with battled still to be settled. It can be said that SUPER SAVER had everything go right for him in the Kentucky Derby, but he won well and must be on the premises based on that form, making 5-2 a fair price. Lookin At Lucky will surely go closer with a better trip, and must be considered the main danger, while Paddy O’ Prado should be there or thereabouts. SCHOOLYARD DREAMS is taken as a good e/w bet for value seekers, given the fact that, his Tampa Bay Derby effort hinted that he´ll be capable of a huge performance when things fall right.