UCI World Tour 2013 - Tour Down Under

After what seemed like such an amazing year in sporting terms, let along in Cycling, professional Road Racing returns this year with the Santos Tour Down Under, the start of the UCI World Tour for the year, and Orica Green Edge can give their home crowd reason to shout again with Simon Gerrans (left) fancied to take his third win in this race. Winner of this race on two occasions (once in 2006) and last year, when needing countbacks to beat a returning Alejandro Valverde after being outsprinted at the end of Stage 5 with Old Willunga Hill, which was the deciding factor in the race – it practically decided the final standings amongst the top 10, with only Jan Bakakelants actually changing positions after that - for the second straight season following several sprint dominated renewals in the 2,000’s.

This year’s renewal, in keeping with attracting an ever improving field, is far more testing with climbs such as Checker Hill and Corkscrew Road all coming before the double visit towards Old Willunga Hill on Stage 5, even if 4 of the 6 stages should end with a sprint, assuming that the peloton can reel in the many breaks that will develop with the early climbs on each stage.

The two stages that should actually play any part in deciding the winner are Stage 2 – where the Peloton must traverse Corkscrew Road before a fast and furious descent to the finish – and the typical queen stage with Old Willunga Hill being climbed twice.

It’s a route which should see the race go to a climber, with a classics specialist likely to be pushed very hard to keep pace with the elite climbers on Old Willunga Hill, and that’s if they kept pace with the best on Corkscrew Road – and one which makes Gerrans an extremely worthy favourite. Able to go with the best on Old Willunga Hill, as he showed last year, he should be at the forefront of proceedings on Corkscrew Road and will crucially have been training to be at his best – or as close as possible to his best - for this tour, with this being Orica Green-Edge ‘s home event. Gerrans’s win in Milan-San Remo last year shows his excellence for not only going it alone, but also for the one day classics style of racing that will decide this race on Stages 2 and 5, and with a lumpier route this year, nothing seems to have changed to stop him from being a worthy bet for the Ochre Jersey once again.

Sky send a strong, classics focused squad which is riding in support of Edvald Bosson Hagen, but he was dropped on Old Willunga Hill last year and looks more likely for the points jersey once again this time around. He’s tempting at a best price of 7/1 given his obvious talent, but others make more appeal. World Champion Phlippe Gilbert is an obvious contender given how he destroyed the Cauberg on his way to that title, but it’s yet to be seen how strong his form is for the earliest of early season races and the pure steepness of Old Willlunga Hill might not suit; He’s a major contender for Stage 2 if staying with the leading group though.

It’s 16/1 bar the three although if any one of Simon Clarke, Geraint Thomas, Thomas De Gendt and Andy Schleck were confirmed to be in their best form, the prices on them would be serious gifts (all above 20/1) but none of the four can be counted upon to be on top form, which leaves Tiago Macahdo as the best value alternative at a tasty 16/1 with Coral, who will pay ¼ the odds for a podium finish. Third last year, Macahdo was 11^th on the Queen Stage of the Vuelta A Espana and should be suited by this year’s route.

Advice

2 pts win Simon Gerrans (7/2 general)

1 pt each/way Tiago Machado (16/1 Coral)