The Derby 2014

4.00 Epsom
Investec Derby (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only) 
Winner £782,598 - 16 run 
Advice: 1 pt each/way Geoffrey Chaucer (11/1 general), Orchestra (16/1 general)



Arod: Highly rated ahead of 2yo debut at Kempton where he shaped with promise despite failing to justify favouritism on only juvenile start; Much better upped to 10 furlongs on reappearance at Windsor, going from the front early and winning as he liked, and then improved on that even when second in the Dante (ahead of True Story), form that has been underlined by The Grey Gatsby’s French Derby win; Should stay 1m4f and be better at the distance and lot more to come after just three starts, so interesting here.

Australia: Immensely hyped after promising juvenile season where he looked a horse with a future, albeit having not beaten much in final Group 3 start; However, proved himself able to compete with those out of the top drawer when a close third in what is already looking a very strong 2,000 Guineas (2^nd and 4^th first and second in the Irish equivalent, while The Grey Gatsby since won Dante and French Derby); This 4 furlongs further but bred to relish every yard being out of 2001 winner Galileo and out of 2004 Oaks winner Oujia Board; The one to beat in no uncertain terms.

Ebanoran: Too much to do and never able to take a hand in Guineas trial but quickened up well and just lasted home in the Derrinstown Stud Derby trial when getting better of Fascinating Rock and Geoffrey Chaucer; No doubting his talent but got slip of the field under very smart ride and other two were closing at the finish, which doesn’t bode too well for today’s trip; Form may also flatter him.

Fascinating Rock: Fifth on only 2yo start but that never going to be the best of him and made into a very smart horse very quickly, winning maiden on return and then Ballysax at Navan in fine style; Had to be given the Derrinstown latest but may have gotten there with extra distance; Rain in morning a positive, but 3lbs worse off with Geoffrey Chaucer; Pedigree does raise stamina doubt for some as well.

Geoffrey Chaucer: Looked a horse of great potential when winning two starts cosily last year, including the Beresford Stakes in fine style; Looked to be coming with challenge on return but snatched up twice in the run; Possibly not suited by slowly run race that day either and now weighted to turn around form with front pair, although improvement expected at this trip with first run under his belt and can play a part here.

Impulsive Moment: Won well on second start as 2yo when beating four runners at Lingfield in novice event and then left that form well behind when second to Western Hymn in Sandown trial; More needed on that bare form here with winner not at his best that day and preferred of the two again.

Kingfisher: Well behind Australia and Fascinating Rock in previous trials and then landed the Dee Stakes when looking as if 1m4f would suit him, but huge amount more needed.

Kingston Hill: Looked a prime contender for the Derby when landing Autumn Stakes and Racing Post Trophy in fine style; Only eighth in the Guineas but a mile in that company never going to suit him and today, much better expected; Draw a major negative for his chances however and rain not arrived in time for him.

Orchestra: Well beaten behind Free Eagle on debut but a smart winner next time out and shaped like a horse going places when landing the Chester Vase; Looked set to beat Romasdal by much more than a nose at the top of the straight but ran green and then began to tie up late; That form is tightly matched but could well improve for his reappearance (like many from the yard) and of interested here.

Our Channel: Improved with racing as a 2yo, ending up with a wide margin maiden win at Beverley; Won the trial here but that form let down by runners up since and magnificent Ryan Moore ride eanred him victory in the C&D trial here; But that 

Pinzolo: Went off just 4/1 for the Racing Post Trophy after impressing greatly in two juvenile starts but could never land a blow there and disappointing on return at Newmarket; Bred to love this trip and back on track at Newmarket, so bold showing not a surprise for all that he has a huge amount of improving to do.

Red Gaileo: Just a head behind Pinzolo as 2yo but getting significant amount of weight and well behind Western Hymn on return at Sandown and then behind that one’s victim Snow Sky at Lingfield.

Romsdal: Big strides in three starts this spring, winning well at Kempton before chasing down Orchestra, just failing to get up having looked well beaten; No reason that he can’t go well today and that form tightly matched; Supplemented earlier in the week.

Sudden Wonder: By New Approach out of Italian Group 1 10 furlong winner so bred to be at best over this distance and something about the way that he was staying on from rear to claim third in Lingfield Derby Trial suggests that 1m4f is likely to be where we see the best of him; More needed to take a hand against the best but might not be so far away.

True Story: Looked a serious prospect when trashing opposition in Fielden Stakes on return at Newmarket, seven lengths clear but still going away at the finish; Defeat in Dante understandable, with slower ground than today blamed in the main although he looked beaten on merit behind Arod there; Can do much better today but will have to improve and more needed; Draw also not helpful.

Western Hymn: Looked a very useful horse in making successful debut on Kempton AW at the end of last year and then showed a very sharp turn of foot when landing conditions event on return, the form of which received a great boost when runner up was a convincing winner of Lingfield trial that had Sudden Wonder third; That a better guide to his talent that workmanlike win at Sandown latest when he hit the front too soon and showed many quirks; Realistic contender.

VERDICT: A competitive Derby with a huge amount of unexposed, lightly raced horses bidding for the famous prize. So much attention has been upon Australia, who is bred for this race like no other being a son of 2004 Oaks winner Oujia Board and also by 2001 Derby winner Gaileo, and with the surface wholly sound, if he stays and relishes the trip as he should, it will take a mighty performance to beat him today. However, he has always been a short price for such an event and it may be that Ballydoyle themselves have two contenders capable of giving him a serious race. GEOFRREY CHAUCER never got a chance to get past Fascinating Rock and Ebanoran in the Derrinstown Stud trial, but the slowly run nature of that race on his seasonal debut wouldn’t have suited and 3lbs better off at this trip, he can improve greatly on that effort for Ryan Moore. The stable’s Chester Vase winner, ORCHESTRA, looked set to beat Romsdal by more than just a nose at the May meeting, but having been sent early, he did well to hold on and if improving, can find yet more here and take a hand for a yard aiming for a third Derby success in a row. Of the British contenders, True Story is still expected to take a high rank, but he hasn’t been given a great draw today and Arod looked to have beaten him fair and square at York – form boosted by The Grey Gatsby since – although Western Hymn may turn out to be best of the home challenge today. Godolphin’s Sudden Wonder may be best for those looking for a huge price horse.

Coronation Cup 2014

Epsom 2.40

Investec Coronation Cup (In Commemoration Of St Nicholas Abbey) (Group 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £218,900 - 8 run

Advice: 1 pt win Flintshire (9/2 general)

Battalion: Very disappointing when upped in class latest, having possibly found the ground too quick for his liking although beaten before race properly got going; Double same will happen here but be surprised if he can take a hand even if back to best.

Cirrus Des Aigles: Top class stalwart over 1m2f and 1m4f over past 3 seasons and as good as he’s ever been; Second to Gentildonna in Sheema Classic when ahead of Empoli and then got better of Treve in stretch drive when revelling in the deep ground and then afterwards won D’Isphan in fine style, albeit a weak race for the level; The one to beat on recent form and rain this morning should help although more would be helpful.

Empoli: Lightly raced, but already proven quality over middle distances in Germany and took that form to the International stage when fourth behind Cirrus and Gentildonna in the Sheema Classic last time out when making taking late progress late; Can go just as well today and worth considering.

Flintshire: Built on the promise of first two starts in fine style (impressive winner on debut) with pair of impressive pattern wins before withering turn of foot to land Grand Prix De Paris; A little disappointing in Prix Niel and Arc, but those runs both come on soft ground, and only been beaten when ground has been worse than good; On better surface today than those two, of great interest to continue improvement.

Joshua Tree: Three time winner of Canadian International but this level in Europe always been beyond him and could get nowhere near Cirrus Des Aigles latest; Ground more in his favour today but others make far more appeal.

Ambivalent: Received fine ride to win Pretty Polly Stakes and then career best when ahead of Empoli, and close up behind Cirrus Des Aigles in Dubai; Possibly allowed too easy a time upfront on his own when landing York Group 2 but the form reads well and not to be dismissed.

Beacon Lady: Trashed rivals on return in handicap here but this a different league altogether and hard to see her getting close.

Talent: Far too strong for her rivals at the end of the Oaks and bounced back from Irish disappointment in big way when second in St Leger; Possible that she didn’t handle the ground when third on last start of the season at Ascot and can do as well as 4yo but this a testing first assignment.

VERDICT: A well-contested renewal. Cirrus Des Aigles will have loved the rain that has hit the course and changed the ground to good, good to soft in places – this makes him the horse to beat even more, but FLINTSHIRE looked a serious middle distance prospect last year and with the rain (at the time of writing) seemingly set to stay away, he can give the favourite a serious test here. Empoli and Talent can be thereabouts.

Summer Tests 2014 - Australia v France, 1st Test (Brisbane)

Much of the talk has been about how the first test between England and New Zealand has been rendered useless by the demands of a league final and Australia’s first test against France could be seen to fall into the same category.

None of the Toulon or Castres players that made the final will be present for the first test and the absurdity of the selection is made greater by the fact that Freddie Michalak didn’t make the 23 for the final but will be the flyhalf here. Continuity has been a problem for them in previous months but at least in some capacity they now come here with a XV that has seen a lot of time amongst eachother through the 6 Nations.

The absence of Thierry Dusautoir, who is only two matches back from arm surgery after a torn biceps side-lined him for four months, is also a serious blow with Australia’s pack transformed from the mess that France tore apart 33-6 in Paris two years ago.

However, with France, the main issue isn’t necessarily personnel, it’s performance. They were fourth in this year’s 6 Nations but in reality lucky to get the better of a vastly improving England side on the opening weekend and had the benefit of facing England at home – they needed an interception try to beat a poor Scotland side – while being battered by Wales on for their only tough test on the road.

Since 2012 they have won just three of their away games, and none of those against a top 5 IRB ranked nation (Scotland twice and Argentina’s second elven) and they face an Australia that looks to be on the up after Ewen McKenzie took the ropes following a horrendous rugby championship. In November they trashed Italy and Ireland by a combined 37 points and scored 51 in beating Scotland and Wales, with a new generation of younger, more mobile and powerful forwards like Michael Hooper and Sam Carter to name but too. While the loss of Quade Cooper is a blow, Bernard Foley has been superb throughought the season as the Warathahs sit top of the Australian conference.

It is however, the Australian backline, where their power lies. Israel Folau is the world’s premier fullback in the eyes of many and a centre combination of Kuidranai and Toomua brings versatility and power in equal measure. Adam Ashley Cooper’s good season sees him get a wing spot but honey badger Nick Cummins’ has been the Australian player of the season for the Force and can play a big part in a resounding success to kick off the Australian summer here.

Advice

4 pts Australia -12 (10/11 general)

Summer Tests 2014 - New Zealand v England, 1st Test (Eden Park)

England’s progress from the ashes of the last, disastrous World Cup to being arguably the world’s most progressive side ahead of their 2015 host bid, has bee nothing short of remarkable but Stuart Lancaster faces his toughest test when he sends a much changed and injury ravaged team to Eden Park for the ultimate challenge in rugby union; New Zealand in their own backyard.

At the end of an impressive 6 nations, one they will feel unlucky not to have won given their manic final minutes against France, England could have come with realistic hopes of pushing New Zealand extremely close based on meetings between the two at Twickenham - Of the last four contests, England have won one and lost the other three by decreasing margins of 13, 10 and eight points -but poor scheduling and inopportune injury at the end of a brutal Premiership season have left Lancaster with just 6 of the side that routed Italy on the final day.

Jet lag protocols and a lack of preparation time meant that the players who were involved in the Premiership final on 31^st May were never going to be involved and unfortunately Saracens and Northampton, who have been so dominant for the season, holding large English compliments, were always likely to play against eachother on the final. This means no Owen Farrell, brothers Billy and Mako Vunipola, Dylan Hartley, Alex Corbisero and Courtney Lawes, all key components of the England squad and even more crucially the heart of the pack that has proven so instrumental in their own success over the past two years.

Danny Care’s freak accident in training robs them of the best halfback pairing they’ve had for a good few seasons, and although Mike Brown is thankfully fit and ready, neither of his backups are available.  Freddie Burns has a golden opportunity at flyhalf but has had a poor season for Gloucester and does not look the player he once threatened to be and while the same does not quite apply to Ben Youngs at halfback, the impetus of Care is a severe loss.

New Zealand too have had some injury blows – notably losing Julian Savea, who has a fine try-scoring record against England – and also crucially Kieran Read, the IRB’s world player of the year last season, who has scored in his last three against England. However as one would expect the strength in depth is unrivalled and Jerome Kaino - having surged back to the jersey after a superb season for the Blues - while not bringing the same width, applies a power game that will prove very hard to match. In the backs, Cory Jane is a more than adapt replacement for the explosive Savea.

 

Otherwise, this is much of the same New Zealand side that won the World Cup on home soil and given a points average of 36.2 so far compared to Australia (32.6) and South Africa (29.6) and the continuity of a backline and backrow that is mostly very familiar with each-other – Cruden and Smith have been the halfback pairing for a good while, while Nonu and Smith’s knowledge of eachother is a massive defensive test for Tuilagi and Eastmond to cope with.

It feels disappointing to be writing England off prematurely but New Zealand have not lot at home since 2009 and the continuity upset may tip this from heavy defeat into a rout. A handicap of 21 is the accepted margin and hard to argue with – despite New Zealand’s sometimes slow start to test series’ in the summer – but it may pay to support them on the second half handicap. They have won every single second half since the beginning of the rugby championship and a mark of 11 may be achievable after the break with continuity working in their favour; A 21-30 point winning margin seems reasonable enough.

Advice

1 pt New Zealand to win by 21-30 points (13/5 general)

1 pt New Zealand -11 on second half handicap (10/11 Coral)