Giro D'Italia 2014 - Queen Stage (Ponte De Legino - Val Martello)

As we head into the final, crucial concluding week of the Giro D’Italia we now have the queen stage. Attacks have been coming thick and fast as the pure climbers try and take back lost time while we have a three way young rider fight and people from the top 10 creeping into the picture too, so without further ado, here is the queen stage.

This stage is notable for being the complete alpine test, with three climbs that leave us with 50km of climbing through the day, 40km of descending in treacherous conditions, a pair of 2,000+ metre passes – the only pair in the race – and severe tests of gradient. Stamina will be crucial

The climbing starts just after 5km of descending, with the Passo Gavia first up. 17.5km, it has an average of well over 7% for the climb with sections of 16% in the middle and 10% regularly. It’s unlikely anyone from the main favourites will attack but it’s a hard test early and the descent is treacherous so the pressure is on from day 1.

Now we have the feature climb of the Stelvio. Famous for having everything tough in a climb; Length (21.7km), gradient (it’s 7 but thee are sections of 12 and the average is let down by the switchbacks), and altitude (the race’s highest point). The climb is on smooth and wide roads, but a section of horrendous switchbacks puts the pain on and the endurance alone is enough for serious damage – it’s going to be an hour for the best to complete this – if anyone’s not on a going day. Riders will do well to have their lieutenants intact.

 

If the climb isn’t testing enough, the descent in today’s conditions is a matter of staying alive (hopefully not literally) on the Trafoi hairpins at serious speed. Thankfully the roads start wide but they get narrow and even without taking risks it’ll be a relief to see no spills. The speeds obviously are going to expose those who haven’t wrapped up heavily at the top of the Stelvio.

After some respite for food and drink, we now have the decisive finish of Val Marello. It’s listed as 22.6km at 6.4 but that’s to be disregarded as you can see the three tier nature of the climb. The first km are fast and rolling but then there’s 3km at an average of 8.5% before a descent and flatter, rolling midsection of 3km – followed by a rise up again with a section of 7% - 8%. After 5kms of this you have the second flat sections before the real rolling climb, where rhe average is 6.5% but in reality you change from 4.4% to 8% in meters. Attacks from the likes of Nairo Quintana looks a certainty although after the last respite, we have a finish that Gazetta describes as the “Cobra”, a vicious set of hairpins towards the finish at 10% with sections of 14%. After all of today’s efforts, explosions are possible here and there’s a huge amount of time up for grabs right until the end.

This is one for all sorts today and there’s no time to lose even with the last week all combing after tomorrow’s flat stage. Nairo Quitnana is meant to have an ear infection just after his anti-biotics but he’s taken nearly a minute out of Uran so far and if in the same form, won’t have another finish to suit him nearly as much with Monte Zoccolan on Saturday all about survival. Much like through last year’s Tour, he’s improving through the race and needs to go again today with upwards of 2 minutes to go on Uran to take ahead of the mountain time trial and two other summit finishes.

Pierre Rolland  - an astonishing 16/1 over the weekend -rolled in with Nairo Quintana on Montecapiano yesterday, his best placing in the race yet as he finished first or second of the favourites for the second time taking to the high mountains. From the favourite’s group, he’s looked comfortable and powerful, and these hairpins hold no fears for the man who took a sensational win up L’Alpe D’Huez in 2011. At 14’s he looks a rock solid each/way bet.

From the rest, Fabio Aru may be willing to strike out again after his brilliant win up Montecapione before the rest day and is tempting at 8’s ahead of Rafal Makja, who’s still lurking in the background only 2 minutes off the lead of Uran, with Evans a minute behind. Uran looked stronger on Sunday but hasn’t looked the happiest on changing climbs and with a time trial coming up may try and limit losses once again in what should be an epic stage.

Advice

1 pt win Nairo Quintana (3/1 general)

1 pt each/way Pierre Rolland (14/1 general)

Already advised

1 pt each/way Pierre Rolland (16/1 Bet Victor)

Tattersalls Gold Cup 2014

3.20 Curragh

Tattersalls Gold Cup (group 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus) 

Winner €130,200 - 5 run 

Einstein’s Folly: Useful on his own merit, having improved 5lbs from reappearance win at Gowran with handicap seconds, but this exalted company for him.

Hall of Mirrors: Useful 2yo, landing Nursery at Gowran Park in fine style on handicap debut, making mockery of mark of 87; Injury taken him off the track until reappearance pacemaking for Magician in Mooresbridge last time, where he evidently retained a lot of his ability after finishing third.

Magician: Showed remarkable improvement as 3yo, romping home with Dee Stakes and then routing field in Irish 2,000 Guineas; Neither of those performances as remarkable as his Breeders’ Cup Turf win, coming after disappointing showing at Royal Ascot, mowing down The Fugue late; Meydan sixth in Sheema Classic better than it looked and so was win against Parish Hall (non runner) in Mooresbridge; The one to beat in no uncertain terms although not sure this ground what he wants.

Noble Mission: Known as a brother to Frankel but smart in his own right and now seems to have found his niche, setting good strong gallop from the front in soft ground, very impressive when given easy lead in Gordon Richards Stakes and achieving far more when taken on for the lead in Huxley Stakes, still a couple of lengths to the good of Telescope at the end after going an extremely fast pace under penalty; Today’s ground perfectly to suit and while Magician a tougher test, must be respected.

Along Came Casey: Yard in amazing form; Dual race listed winner, the last time impressive when a good winner from Belle De Crecy, form that now looks quite strong; Disappointment here when last seen and this should be too tough.

Euphrasia: Doesn’t look good enough despite smooth listed win a few starts back.

VERDICT:  This is effectively a match between the high class Magician and NOBLE MISSION, with Lady Cecil’s runner, transformed by a switch to front running tactics, having a fine chance on this ground which has turned totally in favour of Frankel’s half brother, giving him a token vote with the Breeders’ Cup winner having a maiden win on heavy but no other form of note since, although neither is a betting proposition.

 

Gallinule Stakes 2014

2.45 Curragh

Airlie Stud Gallinule Stakes (group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner €42,250

Adelaide: Deeply impressive on debut over a mile at Leopardstown, quite out of his ground before coming through to win easily; Very promising once again when second in the Hocquart on his return, possibly unsuited by the slow gallop and then failing to get cleared of passaged as runners quickened; Strong contender here today with improvement from that run expected.

Blue Hussar: Looked a sure fire improver for middle distances when landing maiden on debut at Leopardstown and plenty of promise in his Lingfield Derby trial fourth, all at sea on the track after starting slowly and never going the early pace but eventually fourth; This track will suit far more today but may want a further step up in trip.

Boqa: Looked useful on debut behind Blue Hussar: Went close against the useful Fiscal Focus on reappearance and then took advantage of nice opportunity at Tipeerary latest; Form of that franked by runner up but well behind the standard needed here.

Mekong River: Fine juvenile campaign ended badly in French Group 1 but can be forgiven that run and Listed win was one of a horse that would make into a useful horse this year but flop at Lingfield in Derby trial latest; If back to best then a realistic contender here and possible value here.

Reinassance Art: Lucky to beat Derby favourite Australia on debut here (7f) on only start but the rest of the field from that maiden standards up well enough, the second having recently broken maiden along with at least three others; Retains considerable promise here and interesting.

VERDICT: The withdrawal of Edelmira and Theoplolius takes a considerable amount of potential and interest from this race although most of the field still has some sort of potential. Mekong River is better than he showed at Lingfield behind stablemate Blue Hussar, and is probably the best value in the race, but ADELAIDE’S return at Longchamp also suggested much better was to come and he can make amends for a frustrating first time out defeat.

 

Giro D'Italia 2014 - Stage 15 (Valdengo - Pian Di Montecampione)

We had the first big mountain digs yesterday in the Giro over what was a proper alpine up and down test and today should only bring more of the same with Rigoberto Uran and Cadel Evans having looked vulnerable and Nairo Quintana having seemingly defied his bruising through a crash and a cold early to create a significant gap before being reeled in on the flatter parts, although his sprint took crucial seconds.

Yesterday’s stage had many different aspects but today’s is simple – 200km on the flat and then Montecapione, 19km with the easiest gradient being 3.1% as a bridge between two long sections of 8.1 and 8.7% with the finish also being a hard drag, a kilometre at 8%. Being a ski route, the roads are regular and well paved, and pacesetting is likely to be very important. For an example of a stage like this, see last year’s stage to Mont Ventoux in the Tour, where a break went, was caught at the bottom of the climb, and the race exploded as Froome famously dropped today’s favourite Nairo Quintana with that deep seated acceleration.

Quintana is meant to be below best but the way he moved from the main group and worked with Domenico Pozzovivo was not that of a suffering rider and a sprint at the end gained him some valuable seconds. He still has 3 minutes to make on Rigoberto Uran, so expect attacks as Pozzovivo is still over 2 minutes behind too and there’s still a significant gap between them and the podium, albeit with more climbing to come still.

Wilco Kelderman and Fabio Aru have ridden beyond their years and did so yesterday to prevent major time losses; Both will be far more suited by the regular sections of 8% today across the climb although there’s no respite towards the finish which does not suit them unlike yesterday.

Cadel Evans and Rigoberto Uran lost a chunk of time yesterday, with Uran in particular being absolutely shattered, but Wout Poels and Samuel Sanchez are ideal lieutenant this kind of climb and keeping a gap is likely to be a lot harder today.  Ryder Hesjdal and Pierre Rolland’s attacks were lost in the action but they kept a gap in impressive style and will most likely go early today, although they’re not a threat towards the top favourites – Wout Poels is a minute ahead – but they may be worth an in running play.

Quintana is 5/4 for today’s stage but that doesn’t’ make huge appeal and Pozzovivo at 9/2 is the value in the race although with 20/1 on Majka making the podium we’re well set.

Advice

No bet

Champions League Final 2014

It’s finally happened. The all Spanish Champions League final. It’s just not the one we’d all expected. City derbies are always a heated affair but when you’re going for the Champions League final it’s a different matter entirely and tonight’s Lisbon takeover could deliver legendary glory for either Real or Atletico Madrid tonight.

The city of Madrid is taking over Lisbon for the weekend and the stage is set; Real Madrid’s start studded squad chasing the one trophy they value above all others, the holy grail of La Decima. Atletico, fresh from their league triumph, aiming to once again take glory from their fierce rivals on the stage they crave most.

Looking at the match as a contest, it’s obvious that this is likely to be a tight contest; Taking away from the nature of finals to be tight in general, these two have become very acquainted with each other over the past season and a half and on most occasions, have been extremely well matched. The infamous Madrid curse was broken when Atletico won last year’s Copa Del Rey final in extra time and then when Simeone’s men took all three points from the Bernabeu early in the season; A trashing in the Copa Del Rey looked to signal a wilting in their amazing season, as did a pair of hefty away defeats to Almeria and Osasuna, but they’ve kept bouncing back all season and the last meeting was a tightly contested 2-2 draw at the Calderon.

Both these teams have a legitimate claim to be the best in Europe. Madrid have had La Liga within their grasp – twice within the last month infact – but failures to capitalise on a tiring Atleti and Barcelona’s mistakes saw them exit the race well before the final weekend with three failures, two on the road, to take three points.

However there could be a very silver lining for that downfall. A lack of commitment and energy in the last two gameweeks is always a bonus but given the slog that Ateltico have undertaken – and they were defending for their lives against Barcelona at the Camp Nou no less – it’s an immeasurable advantage, even more so when one considers the absence of Arda Turan to name one.

However this is the one they’ve had their eyes on and while hole could be found in the strength of Schalke and Borussia Dortmund – as impressive as their wins were against them, with the exception of their 2- loss at Dortmund - their destruction of Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena swerved notice of the brutal pace and power in a side that starts the quartet of Bale, Di Maria and Ballon D’Or winner and Lisbon native Cirstano onaldo upfront.

 

Atletico’s hard season has always threatened to catch up with them and it looked like it would do so when Levante frustrated them in La Liga and Malaga did the same, but they come here as the first champions of Spain that aren’t either of the big two in 10 years, a magnificent achievement for which they have been rightly lauded. They could’ve been beaten with Diego Costa – who starts – and Arda Turan – absent – injured in the first 20 minutes before going behind but they roared back in the finest of style and their equaliser was a well deserved one.

Much like in their semi final against Chelsea – another occasion when going behind did not prove the end of their chances – the narrative of this game is difficult to set with both teams best at counterattacking. With Modric as the central playmaker but Xabi Alonso banned Madrid could find Ateltico difficult to break down once again – as they did at the Bernabeu earlier in the season – and whoever has the possession may have the harder task of the two sides.

Madrid start this game as odds on favourites but apart from their superior physical state there seems to be no reason for that price and out 40/1 on Atletico has ever chance of succeeding. If they’re good enough to get the job done on the night, then a one goal-winning margin looks the best way to offset potential heartbreak at the final hurdle, with 14/5 a tempting option for Ancelotti’s men. The 12/5 on the draw also looks worth taking, with extra time a very valid option.  The correct scores make very little appal apart from no goalscorer.

Specials

Cristiano Ronaldo is favourite and a worthy one here but in Casllas and Courtois we have two of the world’s outstanding goalkeepers and the 16/1 on either getting man of the match looks a big price; Angel Di Maria, who has also shone when big duty has come calling, looks big at 12/1 in the market.

Advice

1 pt Real Madrid to win by 1 goal (14/5 Ladbrokes)

1 pt Draw (12/5 general)

Man of the Match

1 pt Any goalkeeper (16/1 general)

1 pt Angel Di Maria (12/1 general)

 

Ante Post

Advice

2 pts each/way Juventus (20/1 Hills, 18/1 general)

1 pt each/way PSG (16/1 general)

1 pt each/way Borussia Dortmund (20/1 general)

1 pt each/way Atleico Madrid (40/1 Coral)