Punchestown 2014 - Champion Bumper

6.05 Punchestown

Attheraces.com Champion I.N.H. Flat Race (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO to 7YO)

Winner €58,500

Advice: 1 pt win Silver Concorde (15/8 Paddy Power), 2 pts Shaneshill to beat Black Herculues (5/6 Bet Victor)

Black Hercules: Landed his only point before scoring in bumper here but really impressive at Gowran; Went a strong gallop and had most in trouble at the Festival, but passed fair and square for fourth by Shaneshill and Silver Concorde; Hard to see him reversing that form but can go well again.

Fine Article: Travelled like a horse sure to win when second on Fairyhouse debut and duly followed through in winning at Gowran with more ease than distance suggested; This a steep rise in class but worthy of his shot and interesting.

Jollyallan: Well backed and won like a horse worthy of a crack in race like this when bolting up from the front and ending up 15 lengths clear; Likely that he could do better but competition upfront a potential concern for him today.

Killutagh Vic: Winner got first run on him in the Champion Bumper and didn’t get the clearest of passages, but didn’t look to have been cost a winning chance and will want a soft lead today to be reversing form with Black Hercules, Shaneshill or Silver Concorde.

Patsio: Stand improvement saw him land small Limerick bumper last time but huge step up in class here and quickest ground he’s faced by some margin.

Riviera Sun: Made late headway into fourth despite hanging behind Shaneshill at Naas and then took Down Royal maiden in good style; No reason for form to be reversed from first time out however.

Seven Nation Army: Wide margin winner on UK debut and then showed gritty attitude to land Ascot listed contest, but disappointment at Newbury latest; Presumably wrong on that occasion and should be allowed a chance to gain the winning thread again today although this much faster ground potentially a bigger problem.

Shaneshill: Only third on only point debut but built on Naas debut win with striking show of power at Fairyhouse; Sent off favourite for the Champion Bumper and moved like the best horse for much of the way before being outsped by Silver Concorde in the run to the line; Not that much to find on the form book but was convincingly beaten and must improve to get closer.

Silver Concorde: Well beaten on first pair of bumper starts but an impressive winner at Leopardstown in December giving plenty of weight to runner up and built on that promise in greatest fashion possible when finding the best turn of foot to land Cheltenham Bumper, beating Shaneshill and Black Hercules in good style; Fine chance of repeating the feat again.

Some Buckle: Couldn’t justify favouritism on debut at Doncaster debut but not without his promise there; Should find a race but today not likely to be that one.

Value at Risk: Had smart form in the book and looked an extremely smart prospect when giving over a stone and good beating to four rivals at Leopardstown; Didn’t show quite the same form at Cheltenham but no surprise if he does better today although yet another front runner.

Aminabad: Bounced back from disappointed at Leopardstown to reverse form with winner there and land Listed bumper but that form a way behind what he needs to be competitive here and quickest ground faced today.

Anikam: By the high class Nickname and plenty of ability as he showed in ordinary Hexham contest, running away from poor field but doing it on the bit  and streaking away; Interesting taking deserved shot at this company.

VERDICT: With Black Herclues, Jollyalan, Killtuagh Vic, Aminabad, and Value At Risk in attendance there’ll be no hanging around, which is likely to suit Anikam and Fine Article especially of the longshots here, but if in the same form that he showed at Cheltenham, SILVER CONCORDE will take the beating. He was a convincing winner over many of these, Shaneshill included, and he can confirm the form with his chief rival from last time taken to beat Black Hercules again. Fine Article is worth looking closely at.

Champions League Semi Final - Bayern Munich v Real Madrid

Is there any situation in which Real Madrid should be a 7/2 shot to win a match regardless of opposition, location, or situation? For many that would depend upon the situation involved and a trip to the Allianz Arenas is as hard as it gets, but there still seems to be no reason for the price about Carlo Ancelotti’s men.

Scorers of the only goal in last week’s semi final legs, Madrid come here in a position any team would have taken but with reasonable cause to be frustrated that their advantage is not significantly greater coming into tonight. After Karim Benzema’s early opener, both Cristiano Ronaldo especially and Angel Di Maria found themselves with very presentable opportunities before the first half was over and Madrid were a threat throughought the second half as well whenever getting forward.

There is good statistical reason to think that things may change on German turf, however. Bayern have won 20 of their last 24 home games in the Champions League, with three of the failures to win being games against Arsenal and Manchester City that did not need winning for them to progress. While they face no opposition of note, the sheer dominance of their Bundsliga performance and their smooth progress to the DFB Pokal final are a reminder of the class they possess in light of the derision heaped upon Guardiola’s style of football.

There is also the significant problem of Real Madrid’s away struggled. Although they are a much smaller problem then they have been in the past, 9 of their 11 failures to win this season have come away from the Bernabeu and the latest failure, a 2-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund in a quarter final that should have gone to extra time at least, is the biggest worry for Los Blancos – a continuation of a wretched German record that saw them exit the competition again at this stage last year as they lost 4-1 to Borussia Dortmund in their away semi final leg. However it should also be remembered that defeat – albeit by the slender margin of one goal - would not be terminal, with an away goal for Madrid meaning Bayern must score three to progress.  Bayern have kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 16 games and Madrid have scored in 34 of their last 35 Champions League games. 

 

 Such a feat is not beyond the holders but they were very much reliant upon Manchester United’s collapse after holding the lead for less than minute in the quarter finals and until then they had struggled to break down David Moyes’s side who were using the tactics that they had employed to such success the week before.

Madrid are 8/13 to reach the final for the first time since 2002 and that seems fair enough given that the one goal means Bayern must score three. The only time Madrid have lost by more than one was in Dortmund, removing any feeling of certainty in backing them, but the 13/2 for them to win with both teams scoring is far too large to ignore and so is the opposite for Bayern, who are more than capable of reaching the final with home advantage.

Advice

1 pt Bayern to win with both teams scoring (11/5 Betway)

1 pt Real Madrid to win with both teams scoring (13/2 general)  

1 pt Real Madrid (7/2 general) 

Punchestown 2014 - Growise Champion Novice Chase

6.40 Punchestown

Growise Champion Novice Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)
Winner €55,800

Advice: 4 pts win Morning Assembly (9/4 general)

Ballycasey: Always seen as a chaser in the making; Well behind Morning Assembly in Grade 1 when disappointing last year but much better over fences since, showing great deal of speed to land 2 mile beginners event at Navan; Showed plenty of stamina when landing PJ Moriarty, distancing Don Cossack in good style towards the end, and fair run in RSA although 3 miles seemed toe stretch him as Morning Assembly took third place; Tipped up when going best in what was set to become a 2 runner race in the Powers Gold Cup latest; Stamina issue again in play here and worry about such quick reappearance.

Carlingford Lough: Ahead of Morning Assembly in Topaz Novice at Christmas (previously second to Don Cossack in Drinmore), and would have played big part in finish he had not tipped up in Moriarty, for all that his jumping again the problem when he cost himself any chance of success in RSA, finishing laboured sixth, well behind Ballycasey and Morning Assembly; If jumping is of same standard as it was pre Christmas, then can be given chance of reversing that form. 

Don Cossack: Won Drinmore Novice Chase earlier this season but stamina seemed to be a problem when Ballycasey finished stronger in PJ Moriarty Chase; Going well when tipping up in the RSA before things had gotten serious but no match for Holywell latest at Aintree and wonder if that run was best preparation for him today.

Morning Assembly: Improved hand over fist stepped up in trip last year, seven lengths to the good of Ballycasey over hurdles in novice hurdle here last year, and at least as good over fences, taking strong contest on debut over 2m4f and then when finding more to get the better of Drinmore Chase winner Don Cossack in 4 runner Punchestown Grade 2; Nailed by Carlingford Lough in the run at Leopardstown but improved past him with slicker round of jumping in RSA next time out and should take the beating here.

Mozlotov: Looked to have a big future over hurdles and perfect start when landing Navan novice event but then well beaten in Irish Arkle and only landed a soft contest outside of two falls (albeit hampered at Cheltenham) in Grade 1 events; Needs more.

VERDICT: The loss of Djakadam is a real shame as his presence would have greatly enhanced the contest, but MORNING ASSEMBLY is likely to take the beating whoever turns up and he can gain compensation for his Cheltenham effort when third in the RSA here, once again beating Ballycasey and Carlingford Lough with Don Cossack likely to take a hand too.

 

Punchestown 2014 - Champion Chase

5.30 Punchestown

Boylesports.com Champion Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner €124,000 - 8 run

Advice: 1 pt win Module (11/2 general)

Baily Green: Second to Simsonsig after wonderful 2013 season in which he won seven times beforehand but not in the same form this time around, although his early season second to Sizing Europe and second last time giving 5lbs to Bog Warrior latest, and was going well when falling in the Champion Chase; Interesting.

Ballynagour: Hit and miss but when he’s on a going day he’s capable of mixing it with the best and destroyed Cheltenham handicap field and backed that up at Aintree with a solid third, going best up the home straight before being just outbattled for third; Drop back to 2 miles seems a natural decision and interesting there.

Hidden Cyclone: Has had a season worthy of the promise that he showed as a novice chaser before losing his way, an excellent third in the Paddy Power, a close second over 2m1f to Beneficent at Christmas, and then a close second in the Ryanair; All three of those efforts are amongst the strongest form here, and must be given major respect.

 

Module: Disappointing when upped in trip to contest Peterborough Chase but back to some sort of form when landing 2m1f Newbury Grade 2; That form let down but Champion Chase third, just behind Somersby, was a solid effort and closely matched with Somsersby on that running today with chance of more to come; Barry Geraghty.

Savello: Part of a sensational day for rider and owner when winning Grand Annual, coming too fast for Ned Buntline (solid novice form); Would need to find far more on top of that to get competitive, albeit not impossible if he was to repeat effort last time; Notable that he has his ground for only second time this season too.

Sizing Europe: The outstanding 2 mile chaser at his peak and still has plenty of ability as a Veteran, albeit well behind Hidden Cyclone at Christmas and then behind Somsersby and Module in Champion Chase last time; Possible a big effort – like when he pushed Sprinter Sacre closer than at Cheltenham last year – coming here but surprise if one or two not quicker than him now.

Somsersby: Won Haldon Gold Cup at beginning of season when giving Module 3lbs although and solid effort when second in Tingle Creek to Sire De Grugy before running big race when third in Champion Chase, just ahead of Module; Should go close once again.

Twinlight: Exciting winner of first two starts of the season by a combined 11 lengths but was in no shape on next two starts and then put in his place by stablemate at Fairyhouse latest; Needs more to get involved here.

VERDICT: A competitive renewal with more than one chance and not a race to approach with any level of certainty. MODULE, with Barry Geraghty on board, is taken to reverse form with Sire De Grugy from the Champion Chase and that may be enough to edge out Hidden Cyclone.