Champions League Last 16 2013 - Galatasaray - Schalke

What happened? Cast your mind back to the start of November, and Schalke had beaten Olympiakos and Arsenal away, topped their Champions League group in the process, were the only team remotely on the level of Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, while they had also strolled towards the third round of the German Cup. All looked well with one of Europe’s most progressive sides. Indeed, when the draw was made for the last 16 which pitched them against eachother, Galatasaray were as big at 9/4 and seen as the ready outsiders of the two sides to go through, but that was before the massive slump which has seen the hosts win just one of their last 12 games and drop to ninth in the Bundesliga. 

Since then, Galatasaray have moved with ominous ease towards the top of their league – they’re 6 points ahead of Fenerbache in the Super Lig - and made a couple of very eye-catching additions to the squad in the January transfer window in the shape of Wesley Snedijer and Didiger Drogba, both winners of this completion in recent times, and as such, they are the strong favourites to take a first leg lead towards Germany with Stan James’s 5/4 being the best price available on a home win. On the face of it, that looks very tempting with the visitors woes compounded by several key absences -  including Kyriakos Papadopoulos, Atsuto Uchida, Ibrahim Afellay and Ciprian Marica – while the 2-0 group stage win over Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium was the visitors’ last away victory in all competitions, having gone onto lose five and draw three of their subsequent eight games on the road; Compared to just two defeats in 14 matches for the hosts, with three consecutive games in this competition. The only worry that one would have is that Galatasaray did most of their hard yards in the group stages on the road – their 1-0 win came against a Manchester United side that as through to the last 16 already – while Schalke are unbeaten away from home in Europe this season – but the addition in quality that Snedijer and Drogba – who have already played significant parts in a 2-1 win over Akhisar Belediye – provide should help a side already facing a defence that has let in 20 goals in their last 8 matches alone. It would be utterly foolish to forget Burak Yilmaz, who scored six out of the team's seven goals in the group stage and present a huge threat to any side, while Hamit Altintop and Selcuk Inan should secure plenty of good home ball.

Klaas Jan-Huntellaar’s appearance after a an eye injury is a bonus and the capture of Michel Bastos from Lyon is a masterstroke- he’s already saved them from defeat once in scoring 2 goals at Mainz on Saturday, so there is still some attacking threat, but the squad’s overall quality is disseminated by injuries and the defence has been letting in goals against anyone, so the home side get the call here; The 27/10 on Galatasaray being eliminated in the quarter finals is attractive considering Schalke woes and the quality awaiting them in the last 16.

With Galatasaray having not kept a clean sheet in the Champions League and only 6 at home – including none against Bursaspor and Besiktas, the best the Turkish league has to offer – goals look to be in the offing here. The value’s gone out of both teams to score – so the 5/6 on over 2.5 goals looks to be the batter option of the two, while the 2-1 Galatasaray correct option has landed in three home league games, where 70% of Galatasaray matches have had three or more goals this season. Ladbrokes’s 7/2 on a Galatasaray win without a clean sheet should be of interest, while the 6/5 with Bwin on the second half having most goals looks to be solid considering that 13 of the 17 goals scored by Galatasaray and Schalke combined in the group stages came in the second-half, while Shackle have scored and conceded over 60% of their goals after the break.

Advice

2 pts Galatasaray (5/4 Stan James)

1 pt 2-1 Galatasaray (19/2 Bet Victor)

2 pts Second half highest scoring (6/5 Bwin)

Ante Post

2 pts Galatasaray to be eliminated in quarter finals (27/10 188Bet) 

Champions League Last 16 2013 - AC Milan v Barcelona

Barcelona are heavy favourites for the Champions League and deservedly so but the majority of the Spanish magic has come at home and it might be worth backing last 16 opponents AC Milan to stay in the tie until the reverse leg tonight with a handicap start. Milan looked to be heading out of Europe for the foreseeable future at the beginning of the season, where the double move of Thiago Silva and Zatlan Ibrahimovic to PSG coupled with the departure of several legendary names – Alessandro Nesta, Gattuso, Clarence Seedorf and Pippo Inzaghi – to name just a few unsettled the behind the scenes atmosphere, leading to some truly dire performances early on, although things have changed since and the club has settled remarkably well through the winter.

Milan will hope that El Sharawwy can make it for tonight 

In the last 5 seasons Barcelona have reached 3 semi-finals and gone onto win the competition twice, and in their Last 16 away tie they have won just twice – one of those being against Celtic all the way back in 2007/08, while Bayer Leverkusen were soundly beaten 3-1 but were easily the weakest challenge they’d faced on paper in the last 16 since their famed run of success in the completion started in 2006. Elsewhere, they’ve been held 1-1 by Lyon, 1-1 by Stuttgart, and beaten 2-1 by Arsenal (where they also got pulled back to a 2-2 draw in their quarter final before winning 4-1 at home). Barcelona won all those second legs easily but the main point is that at European level, the only vulnerability they’ve shown in the knockout stages has been on the road, regardless of the supposed quality of the opposition.

It’s well documented that Milan – who are on a seven-game unbeaten run in Serie A and have won their last six matches at San Siro in all competitions - aren’t the team that won this title so impressively just a few years ago – or even a patch on the side that won Serie A just a couple of seasons back, but their recovery from their worst season start in recent history has been impressive. Since being bottom half in mid-November, they’ve won nine, drawn two, and lost just 1 of their last 12 Serie A matches to rise upto a miraculous looking third; In an imaginary Serie A table from the last week of October, Milan would be top, 4 points clear of Juventus in second.

Some could argue Barcelona are on a different level and some of the football they’ve played this season has been as good as any they’ve produced during the last few years – no mean feat – and one that’s backed up on their astonishing La Liga starts. Unbeaten until their 3-2 defeat at Real Sociedad (January 19^th) Barcelona have scored 80 goals in just 24 league matches – that’s 3.3 goals on average every game – and won 88% of their matches, leaving them 12 points clear of Atletico, and a whopping 16 clear of Real in third. Should they turn up in that sort of form then there’s no hope for Milan on paper but they’ve not kept a clean sheet in their last seven games away from home and will be facing a Milan side who have plenty of experience - even if unsuccessful – of playing Barcelona before. In the eight meetings between the two since 2004/05, on only one occasion have Barcelona won by more than a single goal – and that was at the Nou Camp – so backing the home side with a 2 goal handicap start seems to be the best way to get onside, although with 3 of the last 5 meetings between the two having ended up in a draw, that outcome could be the best value in the match odds.

Advice

3 pts AC Milan +2 (4/7 Bet Victor, 8/13 general)

1 pt Draw (3/1 general) 

Champions League Last 16 2013 - Porto v Malaga

Every single year in the Champions League produces a lively outsider and it may be that Porto are the best of this year’s bunch, and as such, they look well worth backing to gain a first leg lead over Malaga tonight in Portugal. Malaga have been the surprise of the tournament for many, going unbeaten in eight games including qualifiers, and impressing with some superb football from homegrown talents such as Isco, Portillio, and until January, Nacho Montreal, who they sold to Arsenal upon account of their finical problems – payment to creditors and their cashflow - which have sadly excluded them from European competition for the foreseeable future after this season.

Those writing them off on that basis only are being premature. Lucas Pizaon showed on his first game for the club on loan that he will provide a massive threat with a near cutback for Javier Savola  - who has himself been in excellent form of late – to win the game against Athletico Bilbao at the weekend, while Portillo too does provide a scoring threat going forward. Their defence too, needs respecting, upon the basis that it’s the best defensive unit in Spain, with just 21 goals let in through their 24 matches. However for the reasons given above those statistics might flatter Malaga slightly, and no clean sheets in their last 5 spells trouble.

James Rodriguez will play a crucial part for Porto 

To qualify from a group featuring Zenit and Milan was no mean feat, especially considering the style with which they went through, but most of their football was played back in Spain and their away record doesn’t quite stand up to the best of this level.  Draws at Zenit and Milan were highly credible results although both clubs were not in the best frame of mind or form at the time. Admittedly Pellegrini’s side were set for a draw against Atletico Madrid at the Vicente Calderon until a late mistake gave away their point but that’s the only one of the current top 8 they’ve played so far on the road and they’ve scored less than a goal a game on average on their La Liga travels.

Porto are unbeaten in their last 19 home games, haven’t lost in their last 12 and won all three of their home games in the group stages, including a comprehensive performance when outplaying PSG to win 1-0 on just the second matchday; Indeed they’re unbeaten in the league this season with their only remotely disappointing result being a 1-1 draw at home to Oldehanse during which they dominated possession (75%) only to be hit on the break , while they warmed up a comfortable 2-0 away victory over Biera-Mar thanks to a long-range goal from Christian Atsu, while Jackson Martinez - a revelation in his first season for Porto with 24 goals in 26 games -  hit the back of the net for the 10th time in six matches. With James Rodriguez having made a cameo that suggests he too could play a big part here, and with Ellisade out Malaga could be vulnerable down the flanks to a team that loves nothing more than a good blast down the flanks, and as such, are worth backing to take a first leg lead in their most formidable fortress.

Advice

2 pts Porto (5/6 Stan James) 

Premiership - Harlequins v Leicester

The Six Nations may be on hold for a week but there’s a fantastic day of TV Premiership action with the first Live TV game at Saracens new stadium with a plastic pitch and the two best clubs in England going head to head in a top of the table battle, and Harlequins can show just why they’re Premiership Champions with victory over Leicester at the Stoop today in what is arguably the biggest game of the season so far. Quins and Leicester are separated only by points difference, and with Leicester having Saracens next weekend, this could be called the most important fixture they’ve had this season.

The Tigers have actually won each of their last eight trips to the Stoop but in accordance with the Londonders recent rise in English rugby, they’ve won the last two meetings between the sides – last season’s final and the league meeting at Welford Road between the two sides – and home advantage could go a long way towards helping them make it three on the bounce. Quins are one of the form sides in European Rugby – impressing with their romp to the top of their Heineken Cup pool and a home quarter final while going on a run of 10 wins in all competitions before slipping to a 17-16 home defeat against Wasps last weekend at the Stoop. That blip owes a lot towards the unusually poor performance of Nick Evans, who had an intercepted pass and missed a crucial late penalty that would have won it for the hosts, but he has been faultless on most occasions this season and if at his best form, could easily turn the game on it’s head. Conor O’Shea was very quick to point men ‘won’ the large part of the game (70 minutes) 16-3 after shipping those two early tries and that should have sharpened Quins’ minds plenty ahead of this week.

Leciester pride themselves upon their pack but against London Irish they gave away plenty of penalties at the beginning of the  second half to pull the score back towards 16-12 before the hosts pulled away once again, while they’ve been second best in all divisions against Quins on the last two meetings between the sides. If they can stop Nick Evans and Danny Care then they can win the game – the two defeats at the Stoop for Quins have come as a result of low kicking percentages from 50% and 57% from Evans himself – but he’s operated without fuss nearly all season and it might be that Leicester find him too hot to handle once again. Of Leicester’s 4 failures to win, 3 have come on the road, those being at Saracens, Wasps, and Gloucester; Quins can consider themselves superior to all three, so back a win by 1-12 points. As a cover, the Tigers-Quins double result at 8/1 has merit. Tigers have trailed at halftime in 6 of their last 8 matches, while Quins have led at halftime in the last 5 matches between the pair.

Advice

2 pts Harlequins to win by 1-12 points (13/8 Skybet)

1 pt Quins/Leicester (8/1 general) 

Reynoldstown Novices' Chase 2013

2.05 Ascot

Sodexo Prestige Reynoldstown Novices' Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £18,006

Advice: 4 pts win Rocky Creek (8/11 general)

Houblon Des Obeaux: Solid hurdler who has made excellent start to chasing career, winning Novice and Grade 2 in style before holding his own in higher company (fourth and second in Grade 2’s over 3m) while solid third in Scily Isles Chase at Sandown latest; Should go well back up in distance.

Rocky Creek:  Grade 2 winner over hurdles who has reached similar level of form over fences quickly, his only defeat coming to the subsequent Grade 2 winner Harry Topper at Exeter on debut before two convincing wins at Doncaster and Warwick, where he came home 15 lengths clear of 135 rated runner up in impressive display; Should go very well here.

Real Milan: Shown serious potential both as novice hurdler and chaser, going 5-7 under rules, 2-2 being novice chases although he needed some shoving to get job done at 1/2 when last seen; Proven stayer which will be useful in this ground but not as heavy as it was for his wins and this harder once again.

Tour Des Champs: Most exposed of all of those but shown achieved high level of form so far; Now 6lbs better off with Rocky Creek from their Warwick meeting, although Nicholls’ charge was travelling far the best of the two at the time; 3-6 in chases and that might read better had he not fallen twice, but will go well here.

Turtlethomas: Romped 21f Novice Hurdle in March 2011 but not seen since and this looks far too tough.

VERDICT: This is a competitive event but ROCKY CREEK looks at least as goof over fences as he did over hurdles and can make it 3-4 with success here. Tour Des Champs is now 6lbs better off with him from their last meeting and could prove to be an obdurate rival, but the way Rocky Creek won suggests that he would have been tremendously tough to beat and he can confirm that form . Houblon Des Obeaux and The Real Milan both deserve respect. 

Rendlesham Hurdle 2013

2.20 Haydock

Betfred Mobile Lotto Hurdle (Registered As The Rendlesham Hurdle) (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £20,787

Advice: 1 pt win Kentford Grey Lady (2/1 Blue Sq)

Trustan Times: Much improved this season, winning handicap at Wetherby and off topweight here in fiercely contested handicap, before solid third in Long Walk Hurdle to Reve De Sivola; This easier, and as such, major player.

Across The Bay: Better than ever this season but that over fences, twice a winner on heavy ground and then second in Aintree listed contest; Seventh in Welsh National but topweight did for his chances in that and notable that he was third to Big Bucks at Aintree last season; Can go well.

Cross Kennon: Won this in 2011 and second last year, but not been in quite the same form since, best effort when going close in Listed hurdle at Cheltenham; Held by Kentford Grey Lady.

Hada Men: Won valuable handicap at this track on last start for Brian Ellison and first win since when winning for Ventia Williams at Doncaster (3m, soft); More required here.

Pettifour: Back to something like his best when running respectably in handicap chases of late, second in Sussex National and then third in similar event at Wincanton; Not won anything since 2009 and lacks the pace for hurdling nowdays.

Kentford Grey Lady: Second to Quevega at the Festival and looked set for more success this season when romping away with 2m4f handicap hurdle at Sandown, but disappointing there next time when only third; Much improved third in Cleeve Hurdle and big player here on that form if it can be trusted; This looks easier.

Miss Milbourne: Consistently placed on most recent starts, but sixth of 14 in revamped Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las two weeks ago not good enough for this.

VERDICT: KENTFORD GREY LADY’s Cleeve Hurdle third is probably the best form here and on a line through the winner there, she holds Turstan Times, and they seem to be clear of the rest. 

Red Mills Hurdle 2013

3.10 Gowran Park

Red Mills Trial Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner €26,000

Advice: 1 pt So Young w/o favourite (5/6 Paddy Power) 

Zaidpour: Finally got that 1^st Grade 1 win when getting better off So Young (third) in Hatton’s Grace, and ahead of him once again when second in 3m Grade 2 at Leopardstown; No shame in finding Bog Warrior too good giving weight and 2m on heavy ground is his signature distance, so should prove hard to beat.

So Young: Sent off just 2/1 for the 2011 Neptune but third then and never been upto it in Grade 1, or indeed Graded company, since then; Behind Zaidpour on two occasions this season and comfortably held even at revised weights, so others make more appeal here today.

Rory O’Moore: Front runner who is useful when given the rope, although had no answer to Un Atout latest and only eight in Grade 1 at Christmas; More needed here and won’t be likely to get away so easily from others.

Arnaud: Bad mistake at the third last when he was only ¾ of a length behind Blackstairmountain despite giving 2lbs probably cost him, but in this context, might mean little.

Missunited: Had a really progressive summer, where she won 5 of her six races over flat and jumps and then was second in Irish Cesrarawitch; Promising return but long breaks since and might be outclassed.

VERDICT: ZAIDPOUR is much the best of these on all known form and should have no problems with the ground or the trip, so gets a clear vote to beat So Young once again, who in turn, should be clear of the rest, of which Missuinted seems best.