Paris-Nice 2013: Stage 1 (Saint-Germain-En-Laye - Houilles)

Paris-Nice had a fairly uneventful start yesterday with an uber short prologue, won by the unkown Frenchman Damien Gaudin by just a fraction of a second. With the distance being so short that no decent time gaps were opened up – 49 seconds separated first to last, with Maxime Monfort’s time having come due to a crash – it was surprising to see Tejay Van Garderen pushed out to 9/2 having conceded just 10 seconds on the day.

Unless the main contenders go for it on stages 3 and 4 – both of which feature flat finishes  after several climbs – there’s not likely to be much change in the GC, and for betting purposes, today and tomorrow’s stages should result in bunch sprints unless the crosswinds are particularly fierce between the circuit finish in Nemours; There’s a climb with a road that rises at 4% for 500m but that’s a formality.

With the stage pan flat it’s obvious that people will look to the likes of Marcel Kittel and co for the stage win, but Kittel is horrendously short at 6/4 and far better value lies with young sprinters Nacer Bouhanni and Elia Viviani, both of whom could conceivably take the win with the time bonuses on offer today, with Viviani being just six seconds off the pace, and Bouhanni being just 10 seconds behind. Given that Bouhanni won the last stage of the Tour of Oman, to see him as big as 11’s is surprising, and Viviani will have plenty of motivation here.

Advice

1 pt win Nacer Bouhanni (7/1 Bet365)

1 pt win Elia Viviani (11/1 general)

Paris-Nice 2013; Prologue (Houilles)

Paris-Nice kicks of the European Cycling season in style today with a short blast against the clock in the Prologue, the traditional test used to establish the order of the GC before the first stage. Normally the preserve of the GC elite or specialist roluers, today’s event is very different from the norm due to one fact; It’s just 3.3km.

The prologue is usually the preserve of grand Tour contenders and specialist, power driven roleurs, but the shortened distance of today – along with a tight, narrow route, brings anyone who can bring the correct amount of power or position to their game. Those who have the same outputting skills needed for individual or team pursuit usually come to the fore in such events, with the finishing times and power outputs often being similar – Geraint Thomas won the 3.3km opening to the Tour De Romandie in a time of 3.39. It’s a real shame Thomas isn’t taking part here, as he has a superb record in time trials and prologues – he was second to Taylor Phinney in the opening prologue of the Giro D’Italia and won the Romadie prologue by some 5 seconds – but today’s favourite Leigh-Howard (left) might be worth supporting. A superb track rider for Australia, he was third to Taylor Phinney and Johnathan Castroviejo two years ago in Romandie (when the course was dry, as Thomas won his with several favourites being affected by rain), and his two wins at the Challenge Majorca show him to be in good form. Sprinters have often done well in super short efforts against the clock, and his previous history in such events makes him a worthy guess at 8/1. The 18/1 about Cannondale’s Elia Viviani – capable of seated bursts and also holding plenty of good form from the Tour of Oman also makes appeal, with the tour favourites likely to need longer to get set into gear.

Advice

1 pt Leigh Howard (8/1 general)

1 pt Elia Viviani (18/1 Bet Victor) 

Paris-Nice 2013

It’s been long known as ‘The Race to the Sun’, and for many, the long road to the Tour De France begins today with Paris Nice, the first major stage race of the European season and one with a history of being a key Tour guide even this early in the season, with two time winner Alberto Contador and Bradley Wiggins having done the double in recent years.

This is the first real European test for those looking to stake their claim for the overall title at this year’s Tour, and last year’s fifth Tejay Van Garderen (left) looks a worthy favourite to end what’s becoming a frustrating succession of near misses in stage races with victory here. Also fifth in last year’s edition of Paris Nice, Van Garderen underlined his reputation as arguably the most promising young talent in road racing when upstaging teammate and defending Champion Cadel Evans on his way to fifth in last year’s Tour off the back of an exceptional first week time trial – when beaten by only Wiggins, Froome, and Cancellara – while also showing his prowess on the last summit finish and in the final time trial, beating Evans on all three occasions and eventually finishing two places and more than four minutes  ahead in fifth.

Evans himself was said to be sick at the time and has reaffirmed his leadership challenge for this year, but Van Garderen is one of the most progressive talents in world cycling and has a record that is nigh on impeccable in terms of consistency and improvement; Since 2011 he has finished 2^nd in the Volta Ao Algarve, 3^rd in the USA Pro Cycling Challenge, 5^th at the Tour Of California, 7^th in the Volta Ao Algarve, 5^th in this last year,  2^nd in the USA Pro Cycling Challenge, 4^th in the Tour Of California and then 5^th in the Tour De France. He was a long way behind key rival Lieuwe Westra in last year’s renewal but all the signs point towards him being a much improved rider now than he was last year, when he lost 1:15 on the final time trial up the C’ol d’Eze, and he should be far more prominent upon the uphill finish towards Nice – where Westra was a surprise winner for many of the big names - than he was last year, with an impressive BMC team (including Gilbert) potentially riding for him.

The potential worry is that he may struggle for pacing – a key issue of his in the past – on the Col D’Eze (one of just two stages that will really change the race) but he’s a year older and wiser and his second place finish in the Tour De San Luiz - including a strong time trial, along with excellent finishes on all the summit finishes - was hugely encouraging considering that was all the way back in January.

Even with Froome, Wiggins, and Contador absent, Van Garderen has a fierce battle on his hands thanks to the presence of young talents Lieuwe Westra, Robert Gesink, and the absurdly overpriced Andrew Talansky, all of whom have top class stage race records. Considering his Romandie second – where Wiggins had no more than a second in hand at the finish of the Time Trial - and Vuelta A Espana 7^th from last year, it’s amazing to see Talansky as big as 14/1 for this prize, even in the light of a low key reappearance at the Tour Mediterranean. A strong time trialist who can handle any gradient of climb, he needs serious considering, even moreso at 14/1 considering he has the fourth best grand tour finish here.

Westra arguably has the best early season form courtesy of his third in the Volta Ao Alargave, where he was third to the top of the Alto do Malhão behind Sergio Henao and Rui Costa before being unable to live with Tony Martin, which was understandable over the flat course.  The ¾ for a top 3 finish looks well worth taking if you want to support him although 9/2 for a win is extremely tempting on last year’s form. A much safer option is the 4/5 with Hills that he bests Richie Porte over the course of the week, with Sky’s efforts concentrated upon Tierrno-Adritico and the Volta A Catalunya over the coming week, and Westra’s third in Portugal and second in this last year giving him outstanding claims in that market anyway, despite Porte's prowess.

 

Gesink was a place and around a minute ahead of Talansky in Spain last year and had it not been for rotten injury luck, would probably have often closer than fifth or sixth to a grand tour, and with his strong time trialling ability proven – it helped him win last year’s Tour Of California – he makes the favourite’s choice very difficult.

Of the others, Nario Quinatana is an explosive talent but would want a stiffer test over the week for his talents, and Richie Porte is well suited towards this kind of stage race as his Volta Al Algarve win last year, but it’s Thomas De Gendt (left)  who deserves attention at an astonishing 80/1 He didn’t set the world alight at the Volta Al Algarve, but his Giro second is the best finish of any here in a grand tour and his stage win last year was exceptional. The 16/1 he podiums is the most tempting price on offer so far, and he looks worth supporting in match bet markets, not least to beat Andreas Kloden, who should not be as short as 1/2 to beat him over the course of the week.

Advice

2 pts win Tejay Van Garderen (7/2 general)

1 pt Thomas De Gendt top 3 finish (16/1 Sportingbet)

Match Bets

6 pts Liewue Westra to beat Richie Porte (4/5 Hills)

1 pt Thomas De Gendt to beat Andreas Kloden (7/5 Sportingbet) 

Super 15 2013 - Week 3

Chiefs (1/14) v Cheetahs (10)

The Chiefs put down an early marker to all looking to take their title when putting four tries down at the Hurricanes and the Cheetahs could be in for a mauling if they’re in the same form on home turf this week, or if the visitors are as generous as they work to the Sharks, who were 26-5 up at one point before their impressive comeback, and will need to be even better to stay within touching distance.

Advice: 3 pts Chiefs to score 35 or more points (5/6 Sportingbet)

Bulls (1/12) v Western Force (9)

The Melbourne Forces’ inability to kick on after a strong first half start has cost them dearly in both games so far, with leads against the Rebels and the Southern Kings (hot favourites for the Wooden Spoon) evaporating in the second half, and the Bulls are expected to put them to the sword at Loftus Versfield. While they were possibly flattered by a 25-17 win against the Stormers, they kept their composure and are a level above anything the Force will have faced so far, while the pressure of playing at altitude may prove too much in the second half. The Bulls won 6 out of 8 home matches last season and have won their last 11 successive home matches against Australian opposition banking a 4 try bonus point on 6 of those occasions, so take the second half handicap – the Force gave up 6 points to the Rebels after half time and were kept scoreless in the second 40 by the Kings.

Advice: 2 pts Bulls -8 on 2^nd half handicap (10/11 Hills)

Sharks (8/13) v Stormers (15/8)

Patrick Lambie landed seven from seven off the tee for the Sharks last week, while Eljton Janties missed 4 successive penalty kicks for the Stormers; One lost by 8 points, while the other won by 7. The two Springbok flyhalves meet once again in arguably the game of the day, with Lambie’s Sharks having the crucial home advantage that might just edge it. While Janties’s poor game off the tee hardly helped matters, they were flattered by the end score and will need to be far better if they’re going to get anything, and the absence of Eden Etzebeth – so big in last season’s Currie Cup final when WP beat the Sharks in Durban – is a significant hole. The Sharks had a brilliant home record in 2012 losing only to the Chiefs and winning the other 7 matches, scoring at least 25 points in all but the Chiefs encounter. A Sharks win by 1-12 points would have paid out in the last 4 matchups between the two here and looks to be the best value.

Advice: 2 pts Sharks to win by 1-12 points (13/8 general) 

Pro 12 - 1st March 2013

Newport Gwent Dragons (11/2) v Leinster (1/5)

Leinster struggled at the start of the season thanks to injuries but they’ve found new impetus following the turn of the year and have won their last seven matches  since their 27-19 defeat in Ulster, at the times wide margin league leaders. The Dragons may be shamed into a better performance than the one that saw them give 60 points to Glasgow, but were only 1 point winners at winless Zebre  but Leinster are only two points behind Glasgow and have just as much quality. Take a 10 point handicap.

Advice: 4 pts Leinster -10 (10/11 general)

Scarlets (1/7) v Edinburgh (7)

Edinburgh’s malaise from the side that came close to European Glory last season shows no signs of stopping and they look vulnerable at a Scarlets side that was exposed against Leinster, but had previously comprehensively beaten Munster, even with Ronan O’Gara in poor form off the tee. Edinburgh have up double figures at Munster and Ospreys, and the Scarlets look to be in that bracket.

Advice: 1 pt Scarlets – 12 (10/11 general)