Real Madrid v Tottenham - Preview

Given the esteemed and almost idiotically ruthless company in which he keeps, Jose Mourinho may have never had a bigger game in his Champions League career. Forget the fact he’s won it twice, this is Real Madrid. The club that decided not to renew Del Bosque's contract in 2003, just a day after he won the club its 29th League title and a week after the club signed David Beckham. If it needs any more emphasising about how tricky it is to keep a job here, look at the sackings of Fabio Capello, (one season, one La Liga) and Manuel Pellegrini, who broke their points record only to be sacked once he failed to negotiate the challenge that Lyon provided in the last 16 of the Champions League.

Indeed, Real Madrid did negotiate that challenge this year, not without a few troubles both in Paris and Madrid. The most important thing that comes from that may be breaking the barrier that has seen Madrid fall to Juventus, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Roma, Liverpool, and Lyon in the last 16 over the years.

Madrid have only played twice since that win, and yet their La Liga hopes and manager’s incredible home record are now tarnished after a shock 1-0 defeat to Sporting Giijon, which effectively narrowed Real's hopes of a title in 2010-11 to one last resort – Europe, excluding the Copa Del Rey final.

That could have any effect on Los Blancos, although it’s worth nothing that few teams do revenge quite like Madrid and a team with this much quality focused on only one target could be lethal, even if those recourse are under strain.

Tottenham have massive fights on two fronts, and the pressure may beginning to show. Spurs have drawn their last four games, and maybe even more worryingly for a team with so much attacking strength, their last three have been goalless. Of course there are contrasting circumstances. The 0-0 draw against Milan is the very reason we are watching them tonight. And they did totally dominate West Ham, getting the woodwork three times, and finding Rob Green in sensational form.

The Special One - Lost a 9 year unbeaten home record on Saturday

Another 0 – 0 draw at Wigan was even less helpful as the visitors produced an uninspiring display. Jermaine Jenas forced Ali Al Habsi to save but Wigan had more threat as they had Sebatian Basong’s brilliant block to thank for leaving with a point. To ram home the  point, Wigan had eight corners to Tottenham’s two. They now lie six points behind Manchester City in the race for the Champions League next season following their massive win on Sunday.

Supporters of Tottenham from both an gambling and footballing point of view should not allow that to get to them; But what may cause more harm to their chances is their chaotic injury build – up. Several defenders have been ruled out, leaving Spurs stuck with a back line that will feature Assou-Ekotto, Michael Dawson, Sebastian Bassong, and Vedran Corluka. The four have talent in abundance, but the only real defender to be trusted in this context for many will be Dawson and the knee injury of Alan Hutton is a massive blow.

As far as attacking force is concerned, Redknapp looks set to “risk” Gareth Bale, who appears to be edging closer to full fitness after a hamstring injury ruled him out of Wales' European Championship qualifier against England, although  Steven Pienaar has been ruled out with a groin issue.

Madrid have their own issues; having only just managed a substitute appearance following a four month absence, Gonzao Higuain may not start, while the fitness of world class left back Marcelo, wing starlet Angel Di Maria, and the world’s most expensive player, Cristiano Ronaldo are not guaranteed. The most crucial omission may be that of a player the Speical one reportedly didn’t trust earlier in the season; Karim Benzema has scored 12 goals in his last 12 games and 21 in all competitions this season. Xabi Alonso may be the difference for Madrid also, which tells us how many factors there are here. Thank god for Mezut Ozil, eh?  

Two things that Real Madrid and Tottenham have provided this season are goals but the absence or unconfirmed fitness of so many players, combined with the pressure of this game after especially poor results for both sides, may mean some uncomfortable watching for both sides. 11/10 about under 2.5 goals makes no appeal, while the risk of under 1.5 at only 3/1 also doesn’t catch the eye. The game is much tighter than the market suggests but Draw – Real Madrid may be the bet. A tight first half could be likely but Madrid have won all four home Champions League matches without conceding this season and may be worth backing to overcome their massive setback at the weekend. Given that VC Bet will give 14/1 on no goalscorer, maybe a cheeky bet on that may be the saver.

Advice

1 pt Draw – Real Madrid (3/1 Paddy Power)

0.5 pt No Goalscorer (14/1 VCBet) 

Today's Racing - 4th April

It’s been an up and down period but overall last week was very successful thanks to the International action & India’s Cricket World Cup win. Glor Na Mara’s defeat was a bitter pill to swallow but Lolly For Dolly recouped all the losses and more when winning yet another Group 3 so we did OK.

Moving swiftly onto the action at Folkestone tomorrow, Queen Of The Hop can take the 2.20. We saw the befit of backing juveniles who have already had a run over their counterparts yesterday when Gold Lace found enough to deny two useful types form bigger yards at the Curragh and in what doesn’t looking like an impossible race, she may have enough to beat off fellow newcomer The Dancing Lord and others. The altter anmed horses did seem to have more speed but slowish ground can blunt that and improvement should be coming. The newcomers that I would be fearing are Sea Poet, who’s very quickly bred, and First Rebellion, who gets the services of Kieren Fallon. Both are worth checking in the market but I’ll stick to my guns and Queen Of The Hop.

The next, a maiden Auction Stakes (2.50) is a really a shocker but there might be a small angle back backing His Grace. He flopped on debut before going close in two 6f maidens at Yarmouth, form which gives him a solid shot here. He was leading at the furlong pole on both those starts (having pulled hard on the second of those two runs) and may have the best speed claims in this small field. Forget his last two runs as they were on heavy ground and the AW. Bahri Sheen went close on his debut and ran well in a big maiden at York but has done little else and his stable’s been queit. Alpha Delta Whisky would be the one I fear most seeing as he’s race fit, while Chokueri was very disappointing on her second start at two.

We’re dropping even lower for the Seller Claydon Horse Exercisers Selling Stakes (3.50) but there might be a bet in the shape of Jackie Love, was a bit disappointing when fourth over 7f at Lingfield given that she shaped with so much promise on her debut over that same trip earlier that month but the drop down in grade will be a big help to her and she can get off the mark.

Off to Windsor and in the Maiden Stakes (2.40) I’ll keep it simple and take Lord Of The Shadows to made a winning debut. His yard sweeps all before them with juveniles in general and also here, and won this with Bonnie Charlie in 2008 and Zebedee last year. The booking of Ryan Moore goes a long way to sealing the deal. Sea Odyssey looks like a useful type on paper (yard has decent record here; Won this with Red Clubs in 2009) but he’s passed over, along with Ciara Boo and Silverheels.

There’s also a nice race in the shape of the 4.10, which takes some solving. Discoteca is likely to be favourite but a deeper look at his form shows that his conqueror Census (whom he came second behind in September at Salisbury) beat Elfine by only three lengths in a 1m Bath maiden, and she’s taken of the pair. The Moore/Hannon combination’s Silverware has to be respected, but his form is generally quite poor and he’s bypassed. Given all these doubts, John Gosden's debutant Informed Award is worth monitoring closely in the market, but they are all passed over and a chance is given to Atlas Shrugged, who shaped nicely behind the impressive Carlton House when eighth at Newbury in October. The form of that race is working out quite well and given those run, maybe he can take a decent hand with that behind him here.

Advice

2 pts Queen Of The Hop, 2.20 Folkestone

1 pt His Grace, 2.50 Folkestone

1.5 pts Jackie Love, 3.50 Folkestone

1 pt win Lord Of The Shadow, 2.40 Windsor

1 pt each/way Atlas Shrugged, 4.10 Windsor 

Florida Derby 2011

Stay Thirsty - Dangerously underrated 

In tonight’s loaded Florida Derby (10.42, Gulfstream Park) there are 4 of the top eight in ante – post lists racing but think that Stay Thirsty can take down the reputations of some very good horses and further strengthen Todd Pletcher and Mike Repole’s hand in the Kentucky Derby Market.

After stalling from the gate on debut, he was nearly as impressive as his stable – mates and Boys At Tosconova, whom he came a never – nearer second to in the Hopeful Stakes. A closer look at the form tells us that the third, Wine Police was seven and a half lengths ahead of Soldat when he bolted up on debut.  He may have disappointed some in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile although going wide into the turn may not have helped him and it was an exceptionally good looking renewal beforehand and he was eased once his chance was gone.

Soldat - Favorite and rightly so

Stay Thirsty set out on his own road to the Kentucky Derby with victory on his seasonal debut at Aqueduct in the Gotham Stakes, traditionally a lead up to the Wood Memorial next Saturday, putting in a taking effort despite many being unimpressed with a time of 1m44.78s. It’s worth remembering that he was racing three wide in midpack before being driven up to assert in the stretch, and he had been reportedly short of work by trainer Todd Pletcher on his seasonal debut. He may be a grinding type, and if others don’t stay he’ll be well suited to the test.

To Honor And Serve - Will improve for first run

Of the others, the one I’d fear most would be Soldat, who comes here off a dominant two-length victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, where he had To Honor And Serve back in third. That victory shows that he’ll go all the way off strong fractions at this distance, which may well be  a deciding factor. He ran like a front runner but no pace came from anywhere else in the race and he’s tactically versatile, having posted good efforts from off the pace.

To Honor and Serve, third behind Soldat on his seasonal debut, was widely touted by some as the horse most likely to pose a danger to Uncle Mo this spring, but faded badly. He’ll be better today but the winner looked dominant and this is a tougher race; I want to take him on again at his price considering those two factors.

Dialed In - Will like stronger pace

As with any Derby trial, there are hot upcoming horses. Dialed In turned many heads when taking Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes here in January with an impressive last-to-first run. Many weren’t pleased to see him beaten in a 1 1/8-mile allowance race against older horses, being beaten by stablemate Equestrio. Admittedly he wasn’t ever going to be suited by tepid fractions early on (the race was run in 151.12) although you’d have felt that if he was to be winning races like this, he might have got the job done.

Flashpoint -Will need to carry his speed all 9 furlongs

Peachtree’s Flashpoint has raced only twice, the debut being a six-furlong maiden victory at Aqueduct on January. 15 by more than six lengths and a 7 1/4-length romp in the seven-furlong Grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream on February the 26^th. His early speed is really impressive but he’s drawn the outside gate and being forced to carry his speed with competition for the lead over a distance 2 furlongs further than he’s ever been may prove beyond him.

This is likely to be a great race and real cracker but there may be a slight upset and the first three have been given very short prices for my liking and I’ll have a little bit on Stay Thirsty to pick up any late pieces if the speed flops today.

Advice

1 pt win Stay Thirsty, 10.42 Gulfstream Park (7/1 Coral) 

Today's racing - 3rd April

You have good days and you have bad, and yesterday was a bit of shocker, highlighted by the Brocklesby favourite Redair being beaten by He’s So Cool, which suggested that Bubbly Balerina would have gone close. The football was even worse, although when I backed Everton I knew what I was in for.

That’s why is was such a great boost to see India win the Cricket World Cup as we’d backed them outright and to reach the final. 11/4 seemed short at the time but it sure beat the 8/13 for them to win yesterday.

Onwards and upwards to the Curragh today, where the Irish flat season moves up a little gear with some quality racing (for the time of year at least). A good card starts with another useful looking EBF Maiden at 1.55. I’m a massive fan of one particular strategy in races like this and I’ll say again and again how attractive horses that have had a run are and despite her being well beaten, Gold Lace is of interest.  The place to go may be Ballydoyle for this, seeing as they’ve made a good start to their season, and their horses seem well forward. I’m a fan of this tactic, as the flat’s wonderful continuity means there are prizes for all of the season and if they really want to be spot on for the Breeders Cup, they can have a mid-season rest. After all, the Americans can do it after 10 starts, why not us??

Back on subject, the well-bred pair of Boris Grigoriev and Raphael Santi* are top of the list and preference is for the latter, seeing as he’s quite speedily bred (belongs to the same family as Walk On Bye and Pipalong). It would be no surprise to see Excellent Art be a good first season sire and maybe his first two runners can make a big impact. Jim Bolger won the race in 2009 so his pair must be respected. Dayina is the one bred to want further, while Cheerful Giver could also go well with Danny Moran on his back. I’ll leave Danziger despite his good Italian family.

In the Anne Brewster Memorial Loughbrown Stakes (2.25), I’m taken by the pair of Defining Year and especially Sing Softly, given as they’ve already run once and won once this year. Sing Softly fairly bolted up on her seasonal debut and she should like the step up to 7 furlongs today. I’d take her over Defining Year if they were in a match. 

There’s a worry that the standout Glor Na Mara doesn’t know how to win but he sets a standard that should easily be good enough to outclass him on his seconds to Zoffany, Pathfork and his close up third behind Frankel in the Dewhurst (with subsequent Group 1 winner Roderic O’Connor second) is easily the best form on offer. Take any odds against or anything that’s 11/10 or above.

The Gladness Stakes (3.30) is a very good renewal this year. I want to back Regal Parade badly. His fourth behind Goldkiova, Dick Turpin, and Paco Boy is a class above everything but he’s never won first time out and after that, 7/4 with a big weight doesn’t make too much appeal.  The progressive Emulous commands the utmost respect but I’ll have a little bit on Lolly For Dolly, who is value at the price considering the fact she’s already been seen out and has won well. 5/1 suggests that she’s far inferior to both Regal Parade and Emulous; that’s not true.

St Nicholas Abbey - Back after absence?

The real feature of the day for me and many others is the return of St Nicholas Abbey in the Gladness Stakes (4.00). I rate him that highly that I was seriously considering backing him at 4/11 for this, as he’s going to be too good for Unaccompanied and co, even if he needs the run.

Unbeaten at two having won the Racing Post Trophy by an easy three lengths (showing an remarkable turn of foot for the soft ground), he hasn’t been seen since flopping in the 2,000 Guineas. That may have been put down as a disappointment, but the horses ahead of him that day were Makfi (who went onto win the Prix Jaxques Le Marois, beating Goldikova and Paco Boy), Dick Turpin, (who went onto win the Prix Jean Prat), Canford Cliffs (who went onto then Take the Irish 2,000 Guineas, St James’s Palace, and Sussex Stakes), along with the useful Xtension and Elusive Pimpernel. Taking on crack milers in a slowly run race was always going to be a tough task and at distances like today's or longer, he can make amends for lost time, starting today. 

* Apologies for lateness; Selection void. 

Advice 

2.75 pts win Glor Na Mara, 2.25 Curragh (10/11 Paddy Power) 

1 pt win Lolly For Dolly, 3.30 Curragh (11/2 Stan James) 

Today's racing - 3rd April

You have good days and you have bad, and yesterday was a bit of shocker, highlighted by the Brocklesby favourite Redair being beaten by He’s So Cool, which suggested that Bubbly Balerina would have gone close. The football was even worse, although when I backed Everton I knew what I was in for.

That’s why is was such a great boost to see India win the Cricket World Cup as we’d backed them outright and to reach the final. 11/4 seemed short at the time but it sure beat the 8/13 for them to win yesterday.

Onwards and upwards to the Curragh today, where the Irish flat season moves up a little gear with some quality racing (for the time of year at least). A good card starts with another useful looking EBF Maiden at 1.55. I’m a massive fan of one particular strategy in races like this and I’ll say again and again how attractive horses that have had a run are and despite her being well beaten, Gold Lace is of interest.  The place to go may be Ballydoyle for this, seeing as they’ve made a good start to their season, and their horses seem well forward. I’m a fan of this tactic, as the flat’s wonderful continuity means there are prizes for all of the season and if they really want to be spot on for the Breeders Cup, they can have a mid-season rest. After all, the Americans can do it after 10 starts, why not us??

Back on subject, the well-bred pair of Boris Grigoriev and Raphael Santi* are top of the list and preference is for the latter, seeing as he’s quite speedily bred (belongs to the same family as Walk On Bye and Pipalong). It would be no surprise to see Excellent Art be a good first season sire and maybe his first two runners can make a big impact. Jim Bolger won the race in 2009 so his pair must be respected. Dayina is the one bred to want further, while Cheerful Giver could also go well with Danny Moran on his back. I’ll leave Danziger despite his good Italian family.

In the Anne Brewster Memorial Loughbrown Stakes (2.25), I’m taken by the pair of Defining Year and especially Sing Softly, given as they’ve already run once and won once this year. Sing Softly fairly bolted up on her seasonal debut and she should like the step up to 7 furlongs today. I’d take her over Defining Year if they were in a match. 

There’s a worry that the standout Glor Na Mara doesn’t know how to win but he sets a standard that should easily be good enough to outclass him on his seconds to Zoffany, Pathfork and his close up third behind Frankel in the Dewhurst (with subsequent Group 1 winner Roderic O’Connor second) is easily the best form on offer. Take any odds against or anything that’s 11/10 or above.

The Gladness Stakes (3.30) is a very good renewal this year. I want to back Regal Parade badly. His fourth behind Goldkiova, Dick Turpin, and Paco Boy is a class above everything but he’s never won first time out and after that, 7/4 with a big weight doesn’t make too much appeal.  The progressive Emulous commands the utmost respect but I’ll have a little bit on Lolly For Dolly, who is value at the price considering the fact she’s already been seen out and has won well. 5/1 suggests that she’s far inferior to both Regal Parade and Emulous; that’s not true.

The real feature of the day for me and many others is the return of St Nicholas Abbey in the Gladness Stakes (4.00). I rate him that highly that I was seriously considering backing him at 4/11 for this, as he’s going to be too good for Unaccompanied and co, even if he needs the run.

Unbeaten at two having won the Racing Post Trophy by an easy three lengths (showing an remarkable turn of foot for the soft ground), he hasn’t been seen since flopping in the 2,000 Guineas. That may have been put down as a disappointment, but the horses ahead of him that day were Makfi (who went onto win the Prix Jaxques Le Marois, beating Goldikova and Paco Boy), Dick Turpin, (who went onto win the Prix Jean Prat), Canford Cliffs (who went onto then Take the Irish 2,000 Guineas, St James’s Palace, and Sussex Stakes), along with the useful Xtension and Elusive Pimpernel. Taking on crack milers in a slowly run race was always going to be a tough task and at distances like today's or longer, he can make amends for lost time, starting today. 

* Apologies for lateness; Selection void. 

2.75 pts win Glor Na Mara, 2.25 Curragh (10/11 Paddy Power) 

1 pt win Lolly For Dolly, 3.30 Curragh (11/2 Stan James) 

Today's Pointers - 2nd April

Officially speaking, the flat season started at Catterick on Wednesday but for many racing fans and probably quite a few purists, things really get started today at Doncaster, where the William Hill Lincoln card is run.

We get straight into things with the William Hill Spring Mile at 2.05. Kalk Bay will be many’s idea of the winner and it’s not hard to see why. He showed a really good attitude to win a handicap on the All Weather at Southwell when last seen, making it three from five since his debut. The form of that and his other wins is pretty solid, and if he was going to be seriously fancied for the Lincolin, theory suggests he must go close here. What takes my eye most is the booking of Johnny Murtagh, who boasts a superb strike rate for Haggas.

I like two here, and one is the other fancied horse MATA KERANGJANG. I’m a believer in horses retaining natural ability and only a couple of seasons ago this horse was finishing third in Group 1’s (having previously gained multiple places in high class Group races) and only last year he was third in the Free Handicap off a mark of 107. Three straight defeats in maidens after that don’t read well, and neither does a fifth on his last start, but the four infront of him were all decent horses at least and a mile on good ground will suit him, so hopefully he can go well.  

The other horse that catches my eye is KYLLACHY STAR. The first reason is that he’s already had a run this season, which already puts him at an advantage, not to mention the fact that his yard has started well with winners this week. The second is that he’s proven himself plenty of times in quality big field handicaps, and he ran a good race to come third in the Irish Lincloinshire first time out. Last year he was second in the Irish Cambridgeshire and posted potentially an even better effort when second in his Group in the Challenge Cup at Ascot. His mark of 92 is very fair and Lee Topliss will give him a good ride.

Of the others, Eton Forever posted a very useful effort to beat Asfare last year and will be better this time round but better could have been expected afterwards and in any case Asfare was an immature horse then. Norman Open has been improving over the winner and his two recent runs bode well,  especially as his last run was a non-event due to his poor start. He’s got a fair mark and Moore on board, so can go close enough here. The one other I would consider backing is Dance And Dance. He beat a bunch of very useful handicappers last time including Cambridgeshire winner Credit Swap. 16/1’s a fair price about him and Pleasant Day could also be well treated. He was group placed before a bad year and this trip could suit.

In the williamhill.com Cammidge Trophy, two really stand out. The first that takes the eye is Prime Defender. He goes well fresh and gets in unpenalized for a Group 2 win, while he’s also got other good efforts from last year to back that up.  That should make him the bet but I’m still going to go with BATED BREATH in spite of the fact that I don’t feel he’ll be a group class sprinter. He made short work of his first three starts (a maiden and 2 handicaps) and wasn’t helped by a slow pace along with a wide challenge on his next start. It was much the same story in a listed contest and while he may let a few down this year I’m backing him because he’ll get the pace he wants here and that should see him in a much better light.

In the Lincoln (3.10), despite the price, ground and trip I’m going to side with TAQLEED for the reason that he’s a lightly-raced, lightly weighted, progressive sort with aspirations of being a Group-class performer. That seems too simplistic but there are other reasons for liking him. His yard won this with a similar type in Expresso Star two years and ago and it’s very promising already that Taqleed has had experience of a big field handicap when coming a very creditable sixth in the Cambrdigeshire, where he was infront at the mile point. All said, he can go very well here despite this being a different test to what he’s used to.

There are about a million and one options that could be the second choice but after a lot of thinking IRISH HEARTBEAT might be the one to take ahead of Prime Exhibit. He’s 2-2 when racing on this course and we know he’s equipped with all the necessary talents to win a Lincoln, having won the Spring Mile last year in good style. He travels brilliantly thoughought his races, which will help him massively here, and he’s got wins on good to his name so I’m not worried about the ground; He won the Spring Mile on his reappearance last year, so fitness will not be an issue.

Prime Exhibit has everything going for him and I can’t see him not running well, while Gunner Lindley might like the ground a little softer. Fremont would need to recapture his juvenile form but can do so, and a drop of 6lbs will help him, but the two I would be focusing on as threats to my picks are Lowther, who put up a remarkable show to win the Lincoln Trial despite being forced wide and wandering late on. The only thing I worry about his the fact he’s on much worse terms in a different context with Tartan Gigha and Prime Exhibit. Sweet Lighting has taken my eye of late; The booking of Johnny Murtagh is a massive positive, he’s been in decent races in Dubai and would have a great chance if ridden aggressively. Docofthebay was a fine second in a Listed event just a couple of weeks ago and can go well here for a rider that’s going places.

I couldn’t resist taking a poke at the williamhill.com Brocklesby Conditions Stakes (3.40) given my love of juvenile racing. The last youngster to come to the Brocklesby with a previous run was the 2006 winner Spoof Master while Phantom Whisper was one of five who had a race behind them when he won in 2005 (second and third had also raced, so looking for experience is the key here. REDAIR was very impressive in winning despite drifting across the track and even with a 4lbs penalty, she’s likely to be hard to beat. While she should go well, there’s no reason that BUBBLY BALLERINA, second behind Redair at Kempton (also ahead of He’s So Cool) can’t go close with a 4lbs pull in the weights . He’s So Cool will also run a better race this time, and should be noted having comes forma  yard with a hot record in this (stable won 3 of last 9) as he too has a pull with the winner. Of the newcomers, the Hanagan/Fahey colt Our Boy Jack is shortest but I’ll stick with experience, and that’s the same reason  I’ll bypass Jimmy The Lollipop (stable already had a juvenile winner; Well backed) and Outlaw Torn.

Advice

1 pt each/way Mata Kerangjang, 2.05 Doncaster (11/2 Bet365)

1 pt each/way Kyllachy Star, 2.05 Doncaster (14/1 Bet365)

1 pt win Bated Breath, 2.35 Doncaster (10/3 Skybet)

1 pt win Taqleed, 3.10 Doncaster (9/2 Ladbrokes)

1 pt each/way Irish Heartbeat, 3.10 Doncaster (10/1 Paddy Power)

2 pts win Redair, 3.40 Doncaster

0.5 pts each/way Bubbly Ballerina (9/1 Bet365) 

Premiership - Saturday 2nd April

Birmingham (8/5) v Bolton (2/1)

Bolton were very unlucky to go down so late to Manchester United at Old Tarfford and had previously been seriously impressive in winning 4 of their last 5 games previously. Birmingham will always be a tricky trip for any side but they can prevail at St Andrews.

Advice: 2 pts Bolton (2/1 Stan James)

West Brom (11/5) v Liverpool (7/5)

Given their away record, Liverpool aren’t the most confident of away choices but Kenny Daglish has got their act together and they can take three points at West Brom. The redmen where impressive in winning 2-0 away at Sunderland and can beat the Baggies, who have Manuel Alumina to thank for their point last time.

Advice: 1 pt Liverpool (7/5 William Hill)

Everton (10/11) v Aston Villa (7/2)

Everton can be unreliable, inconsistent and even more incompetent but they seem to have found their gear now and can see of a misfiring Aston Villa side with the second worse away record, with help from Leighton Baines and Tim Cahill.

Advice: 1.5pts Everton (10/11 Victor Chandler)

Stoke (9/2) v Chelsea (8/11)

Following some incompetent and ignominious failures , Chelsea are launching a late title challenge and they can maintain it here. Stoke’s recent form has been impressive and sends a big warning but on four of their last five matches and conceded the fewest goals in the Premier League this season.

Advice: 3 pts Chelsea (8/11 William Hill)

Wigan (23/10) v Tottenham (7/5)

Wigan have improved rapidly of late and gained deserved compensation for not beating Manchester City when winning against Birmingham last week but Tottenham are a different proposition and even with the upcoming trip to the Bernabeu, should be backed at a decent price.

Advice: 1 pt Tottenham (7/5 Bet365)

Newcastle (21/20) v Wolves (3/1)

Wolves’ last three performances have all been very impressive and all season they’ve been far better than their position suggests. Newcastle have slumped to extremely poor defeats the last twice and will have another battle on their hands here. Only 4 points separates the two sides and this may be a close one.

Advice: 0.5 pts Wolves (3/1 Boylesports)