Autumn Internationals 2013 - Wales v Australia

The last act of a fantastic set of Autumn Internationals comes to an end with one of biggest grudge match of them all in international rugby, or at least the longest turning curse – and about the only thing one could confidently predict before kick off is that this latest encounter in the Wales – Australia saga looks likely to go right down to the wire.

Wales, having retained their 6 Nations style in such stunning fashion in Cardiff and provided the backbone of the first successful Lions side in 12 years, are looking to overcome the curse that Australia seem to have put over them in recent times with a win. The Wallabies come here having won their last eight against Gatland’s side.

It would also go a long way to breaking a losing run that has stretched since 2008 against the three SANZAR giants – New Zealand, South Africa and the Wallabies themselves – and provide a much needed mental boost given that they must tackle them and England in the pool of death at the 2015 World Cup.

Bookmakers couldn’t separate the two last year and once again that is the case with Wales having gained an extremely important wide margin win over Argentina – who were quite dominant winners in Cardiff last year - to go some way towards fixing their Southern Hemisphere woes – after getting within touching distance and then losing out in the pressure moments against a South Africa that has lost only to New Zealand and

Australia arrived here with their team down to the bare bones and their coach under fire last year before stealing what had been a poor game with the match’s most creative moment. A year on, they come here with a full squad and fine first XV to choose from and are on a run of results that quietly seem to be alleviating the pressure on new boss Ewan Mckenzie despite their drunken antics in Dublin after their 32-15 win over Ireland.

Australia have been given some serious beatings this year, not least during the Rugby Championship, but have given their best performances for McKenzie since then including a trashing of Argentina at the end of the Rugby Championship, their impressive play in an admittedly dead-rubber Blesidoe Cup game, and a trashing of Ireland that admittedly flatters them while showing the edge in the set piece and contact game that allowed their backline to run riot.

While McKenzie’s initial spell has been seen as a wet squib but after a flat opening against England they’ve won all three of their tour games and with a full compliment in a backline directed by the in form Quade Cooper, would need only parity in the forward battle and contact area to consider themselves favourites – they won last year’s game with the one moment of creativity during the entire game – with the likes of Nick Cummins, Israel Folau, Adam Ashley Cooper and Christian Leali’fano all ready to strike. 

If Wales – who tried a lot of new combinations against Tonga that never really worked and revert back to their strongest valuable side, which as we all know, will aim to dominate the contact area and set piece. The loss of Adam Jones, Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies is crucial in this respect, but if Alex Cuthbert is fit on his return then the wing matchup could decide the game. With so many unknowns and the recent history between these two, a dutch of the 1-5 winning margin once again seems to be wisest choice. In the potential tryscorer margins, look towards Israel Folau, in a rich vein of form, or either of the Australian centres, who will be attacking a new centre partnership for Wales and are likely to get inside ball from Quade Cooper and Will Genia.

Advice

1 pt Australia to win by 1-5 points (9/2 general)

1 pt Wales to win by 1-5 points (5/1 general) 

Long Distance Hurdle 2013

2.25 Newbury

bet365 Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £22,780

Advice: 3 pts win At Fishers Cross (10/11 general)

Celestial Halo: Evergreen newly turned staying hurdler who was second and clear one at that in World Hurdle before landing Auteuil Grade 2 (no match for Gemix in French equivalent of World Hurdle); That form makes him a big player and must be respected.

Reve De Sivola: Fourth in World Hurdle; Another British charge not to get into the race behind Gemix but did provide a turnup when revelling in his heavy ground and then overturning that form to land Grand Prix D’Automne at Auteil, having been outpaced before flying home to mug Lord Presitge and Gemix; Will take some serious passing from out in front but the slower the ground the better for him.

At Fishers Cross: The rising star of the staying novice hurdle scene, having won his last 6 on the bounce, including defeat of Champion Hurdle contender the New One over 2m5f Grade 2 at Cheltenham and then when dominant in Albert Bartlett; Good ground a new frontier for him but even more impressive when bolting up in admittedly weak Sefton but couldn’t possibly have been more impressive and if there’s more to come than can take high rank against the stayers; Gets 4lbs from top 2.

Battle Group: Completed a remarkable double in the space of two days at Aintree festival earlier this year, and won Grade 3 handicap by 10 lengths over hurdles before taking apart field in 3m handicap chase just a couple of days later; Beat Jetson again at Haydock before no show in Paddy Power over fences but needs to find more yet again to get in the shakeup here.

Medinas: Proved that he stays this trip when second to Tidal Bay latest on return at Wetherby (form reads well in this context, was in receipt of 4lbs); Won Coral Cup off 148 last season so not without his place here; At Fishers Cross a different horse to the one that he gave nearly a stone to in December.

VERDICT: A good renewal and more open than the betting suggests. The concession of 4lbs that Reve De Sivola and Celestial Halo have to give to AT FISHERS CROSS adds a fascinating edge to what’s already going to be a very informative event with the staying scene in mind and Rebecca Curtis’s young second season hurdler can lay down a marker down for the season ahead.

Fighting Fifth Hurdle 2013

2.05 Newcastle

StanJames.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £56,270

Ante Post: 1 pt each/way My Tent or Yours, 2014 ChampionHurdle, (10/1 Hills)

Cotton Mill: Looked ready to give Simonsig a serious race when running out in Neptune and unseating; Promising comeback but five lengths behind and easily beaten behind My Tent or Yours in Tote Trophy and hasn’t quite been the same since, disappointing in pair of handicaps and a long way behind Melodic Rendezvous latest; Hard to fancy even with blinkers.

Duke of Navan: Improved hand over first switched to hurdles last year, winning three from four including decent 4 runner listed contest; Not beyond him to improve once again for all that he was beaten and easily at that when upped in Grade at Cheltenham; Better horse now and has more to offer for all that this  serious step up in class.

Grumeti: Grade 1 winner and arguably best juvenile of the season when winner of Aintree Hurdle; Good flat form immediately afterwards but just the one run since, understandably finding things tough in Scottish Champion Hurdle after 329 days off the track when respectable fourth; If in sharper form after 224 further days off, he can go well here.

Melodic Rendezvous: One of last season’s top novices, robbed of his chance to take a whack at the Supreme or Aintree after two deeply impressive heavy ground wins including Tolworth Hurdle, but even more impressive on return in Elite Hurdle when giving weight and beating to Cotton Mill amongst others; Has more to give on second run of the season after just four runs and will take the beating.

My Tent Or Yours: Promising but hard pulling novice hurdler who fulfilled his potential in bounds when turning Betfair Hurdle into a procession last year (Cotton Mill well beaten second); Hot favourite for Supreme Novices Hurdle’ and looked the winner for much of the way despite racing keenly before being outstayed by Champagne Fever (Aintree win a formality); Test of speed very much ideal for him but not a life and death matter (maintained advantage over Jezki to the line) and could be described as the one to beat.

Rock Relief: Out of his depth here.

Stormy Weather: Also looks out of his depth.

Cockney Sparrow: Seriously progressive hurdler who turned Conditional’s event at Aintree meeting into a procession and then took hurdles record to 4-6 when winning mares' Listed event at Wetherby four weeks ago when following up flat success in style; Can give more but this a different level to any of those tasks.

VERDICT: Many people will draw similarities between My Tent Or Yours and Binocular, beaten three times as favourite in this race, although last year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle second may be more tractable early in the season than notoriously stuffy Champion Hurdler and the sound surface that has prevailed will help his chances no end. He faces a serious challenge in MELODIC RENDEZVOUS, race fit after an impressive Elite Hurdle win on his return and with more to give on just his fifth hurdles start with the advantage of a run under his belt, and a defeat at this stage would do his Champion Hurdle aspirations no harm.

 

Champions League 2013/14 - Wednesday 27th November

CSKA (7) v Bayern Munich (1/2)

Bayern Munich’s transition to Pep Guardiola from Jupp Henckyes has been as seamless as one could hope for and there’s not question his side are the class acts but having already qualified as group winners there’s no need for the Bavarians to have to go all out here and a horror trip – they’ve missed one day of training already – isn’t ideal. Add a host of injured and the 1/2, while fair for their best form, can be left.

Advice: No bet. 

Anderlecht (3) v Benfica (11/10)

Benfica are closing in on Porto’s Liga lead but need a result against Anderlecht badly given how poor they were against Olympics infront of their own fans on matchday 3 and they rate as shaky odds on shots even at group whipping boys Anderlecht especially without Oscar Cardozo. This looks to be a trappy card. 

Advice: No bet. 

Leverkusen (7/5) v Manchester United (12/5)

While big attention focuses on Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen have quietly been one of the most impressive teams domestically in Europe and they pose a very stiff test for a Manchester United side that is missing Robin Van Persie and Nemaja Vidic. United have gone 10 games unbeaten but had some rickety moments during that run and are vulnerable against a Leverkusen team that is unbeaten at home this season.

Advice: 2 pts Bayer Leverkusen (7/5 general), 1 pt Over 2.5 goals (19/20 Bet365)

Juventus (2/13) v Copenhagen (25)

Juventus have been disappointing in the Champions League so far but played some of the best football of their season against Real Madrid and could (or arguably should) have won both games. With the strike pairing of Fernando Llorente and Carlos Tevez up and away they can give Copenhagen a heavy beating and get back on track for a spot in the last 16

Advice: 1 pt Juventus -2 (23/20 Ladbrokes)

Manchester City (2/11) v Plzen (20)

After another resounding home success this should be a matter of how many for Manchester City. Regardless of changes any number looks possible even with City through to the last 16 and 13-10 on City winning by three or more looks the bet.

Advice: 2 pts Manchester City -2 (13/10 general)

PSG (2/5) v Olympiakos (8)

PSG’s massive resources couldn’t life them to a win at home over the group whipping boys Anderlecht but against Olympiakos they should make no mistake in Paris. Laurent Blanc’s men were 4-1 winners in the reverse fixture and have scored 12 goals in their three league games this month and are capable of covering a one goal handicap.

Advice: 2 pts PSG -1 (21/20 Bet365)

Real Madrid (1/3) v Galatasaray (8)

Real Madrid sealed their qualification with a fortunate draw and win against Juventus, making their last two games redundant from their perspective, but they should still be good enough to put away Galtasaray with ease. Carlo Ancelotti’s men have pace to burn against a defence was exposed in a 6-1 thrashing on Matchday 1.

Advice: No bet. 

Shaktar (4/6) v Real Sociedad (19/4)

Real Sociedad need a win at Shakhtar to stay in the competition but Mircea Lucescu’s side look to have a clear class edge and despite a lack of goals they can keep their qualification chances alive with a win against a Sociedad side they beat 2-0 on matchday one and that has lost both away matches since. 

Advice: 1 pt Shaktar (4/6 general)