Saturday 23 February 2013

6 Nations 2013 - Scotland v Ireland


The 6 Nations has an ever changing nature from week to week and we may have been very quick to forget the chances of Ireland following their defeat at home to England and the injuries that followed, and they can keep championship hopes alive with a victory against Scotland at Murrayfield today.

Declan Kidney’s side were joint favourites before their crunch clash with England, but a whole host of handling errors – thanks in no small part to a horrendously wet day in Dublin - held back their cause in a 6-12 defeat, which also saw them lose 5 key players to injury or suspension; And those absentees form no small part of the spine of the Ireland side.

rugby3: Ireland v England - RBS Six NationsSimon Zebo’s broken foot rules him out of the rest of the tournament, with experienced and steady hand Gordon D’Arcy ruled out for largely the same reason, while pre-tournament Lions favourite Jonathan Sexton (hamstring) and second rower Mike McCarthy (knee) will miss at least today’s match; Prop Cian Healy’s disgusting and reckless indiscretions were well deserving of a longer ban than the three weeks he is suspended for but his absence from the scrums and he breakdowns will be no less damaging, even if deserved.

Despite what some might say, that’s not the end of the world for the Irish, as damaging as those absences will be. O’Gara struggled badly once put on against England – missing a sitter as soon as Jaames Haskell was in the bin – and was no better against the Scarlets last week, missing three out of 5 penalties in a toothless performance which has shown his marked decline over the past two or three seasons.

To say that this is a baptism of fire for Ulster’s Paddy Jackson would be an understatement but anyone who has seen him play for Ulster will know that he’s been a future Ireland 10 for quite some time and his exploits with Ulster will have given him plenty of experience at the best of club level – the only thing comparable towards test rugby without being the real thing. Many will point towards his below par performance in last year’s Heineken Cup final but Ruardih Jackson hasn’t reached that level with Glasgow Warriors at club level and Ulster were clearly second best to Leinster on the day, leaving Jackson with a pack that was going backwards from minute 1 to 80; Many have also credited much of his growth at Ulster with Ruan Piennar’s presence in the No.9 shirt, but Conor Murray’s had his best season in the No.9 shirt for Munster and should be on a decent wavelength with his halfback partner.

Luke Marshall also has a huge responsibility on his first start in the 12 jersey but he’s shown much of the same progress that his clubmate Jackson has, while the rest of the replacements are more than capable of filling the gap left by the absences. For all that Ireland were disappointing against England, that same side is now 4/7 for the Grand Slam, and just a week earlier they were tearing Wales apart at the Millennium Stadium before holding off a fightback despite having two men in the bin during the second half – they still won by 8 points in the end.

Scotland were truly dire in the Autumn but are really reaping the benefit of Tim Visser’s inclusion in the side following his residency and the coaching change from Andy Robinson to Scott Johnson has worked wonders on the evidence of their first two performances, especially their34-10 thrashing of Italy. The fact they they’ve scored 6 tries at this stage of the championship already is a revelation and a real sign of progress, and you couldn’t help but be impressed by their power and pace from broken play against the Italians, but they might have been overrated in the context of their following their win against a desperately poor France – who were much improved with players in the right positions yesterday at Twiceknham – and there’s no way that the Irish will allow anywhere near as much time and space for the Scots, who thrive on broken play from end to end – their two tries at Twickenham came from line breaks, and two of their four tries against Italy came deliberately from opposing errors, including Start Hogg’s spectacular burst. The hosts will provide a tremendous challenge for the Irish, who will have to be on their guard and far sharper than they were against England, but the victors looks to have more than enough class to come through this tests and have lost one in their last 12 matches against the Scots in the 6 Nations, so looks good value to win by 1-12 points, as they’ve done in their last 3 tournament games here.

Advice

5 pts Ireland to win by 1-12 points (8/5 Boylesports, Paddy Power) 

Dovecote Novices' Hurdle 2013


3.15 Kempton
William Hill Dovecote Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)
Winner £15,665

Advice: 1 pt Lac Fontana (15/8 general)

Owner detailsBrick Red: Ex flat racer who has caught fire over hurdles, winning at Ludlow, Wincanton, and Musselburgh, settling the affair long before home on latter occasion despite late mistakes; Should go well here.

Owner detailsForgotten Voice: Group standard on the flat, clear cut winner of Royal Hunt Cup and Group placed on multiple occasions; That class shone through on first two starts, winning easily at Bangor and Market Rasen, but struggled badly when fourth in C&D handicap as favourite on soft ground; Better ground today should help but needs to settle if he’s to win.

Owner detailsBlack Sprit: Very useful flat horse at middle distances last year, winning 4 runner Group 3 to supplement several solid handicap efforts; First run since just October so shouldn’t lack for fitness too much and interesting here.

Owner detailsFair Trade: Also very useful on the flat, albeit a while back now (Fourth in Salisbury Group 3, 2010) and shown touches of talent over hurdles, second and third in decent contests (then won NH bumper on AW); Needs much more here but not totally capable.

Owner detailsLac Fontana: Pretty useful at up to 1m4f in France and just 16/1 for the Triumph before and after hurdling debut at Newbury, where he got bumped around before the last and didn’t jump as well as he could have; Should come on a good deal for that and take the beating here.

VERDICT: LAC FONTANA is being stepped up in class from his first run but he showed no small amount of promise on his hurdling debut at Newbury, and with better jumping hopefully in the offing, he can beat Brick Red and the useful ex-flat duo of Black Sprit, and Forgotten Voice.  

Adonis Hurdle 2013


2.05 Kempton
Racing UK Subscribe For Cheltenham Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (4YO only)
Winner £15,661

Advice: 1 pt win Irish Saint (6/4 general)

Owner detailsChris Pea Green: Three from three on turf, looking like exciting prospect in making opposition look ordinary at Huntingdon and Lingfield settling matters with bright burst of acceleration after the bend; Potentially has more to give and respected, although this  is much tougher race here.

Owner detailsIrish Saint: Hinted at high level of ability when running out easy listed winner for Guy Cherel before winning with more than plenty in hands to win here on debut by 15 lengths; Outsped by Rolling Star (stablemate of Vasco Du Ronceray) in latter stages of Cheltenham Grade 2 but drew 32 lengths clear of runner up and should take the beating here.

Owner detailsFoster’s Road: Scored on first and fifth hurdling attempts but flattered slightly to do so and long way below standard required based on hoe struggled in Cheltenham Grade 2.

Owner detailsVasco Du Ronceray: Got up in the last strides to make it third time lucky in France and showed far more talent when strolling from start to finish in weak Hereford maiden hurdle; Exuberance didn’t let him down on that occasion but has since cost him twice in better company, that and testing ground leaving him as sitting duck to Far West at Cheltenham and then costing him when below par third in Doncaster Grade 2; Needs to improve but this test of speed should bring out best in him if settled.

Owner detailsCourtesy Call: Won four times for Mark Johnston last year, well beaten on sole start on worse than good; Entered in Triumph, but this a demanding hurdles debut.

Owner detailsL’Unique: Built on promising Auteil debut in style when deeply impressive in Fillies’ Listed contest at Aintree and easy winner here of weak C&D race; Better class of rival here but not tested yet and just her yard demands respect; Should go well.

Owner detailsShardapour: Not good enough on all known evidence so far.

VERDICT: Traditionally the strongest trial for the Triumph by far, but this year’s edition doesn't look quite as good even if it’s of a more than respectable standard. Good ground and a flat track should suit Vasco Du Ronceray down to the ground, but an unwillingness to settle has cost him twice so far and in IRISH SAINT he faces a very decent rival who sets a high standard for him and L’Unique to pass, assuming he doesn’t find the change in track and ground too much, having looked every inch a stayer on trials day at Cheltenham. 

Friday 22 February 2013

6 Nations 2013 - Italy v Wales


Absurd as it might have sounded to some after 40 minutes against Ireland, Wales think they can still win the 6 Nations Championship and might just have come to Rome at the right time to take their second win of this year’s championship and in doing so, put them right back into the title race. Grand Slam winners last year, then then Warren Gatland side preceded – much like in years past – to go on a long winless run following their Triumph.

The very length of their barren spell is evidence by the fact their last two wins at test level have come against France – their 16-9 Grand Slam success last year and their hardfought 16-6 win at the Stade De France just two weeks ago, although it could have been that the length of their winless spell has let us forget the quality they possess a little too easily. Of their eight losses, 4 were against Australia and their defeats in the summer on Aussie soil came by a combined total of just 13 points, all in games which could easily have gone the way of the visitors with a bit of luck – best not mention the tragic injury time defeat for Wales which ended their miserly autumn while we’re at it. While defeats against Argentina and Samoa were pretty disappointing affairs, it is well worth noting that their pack at the time, was totally decimated by injury – three of the grand slam pack were injured for their series opener – by the end of the series, no more than 10 of their team were on the sidelines.

While they were appalling during parts of their 22-30 defeat to Ireland, - they did at one point, give the Irish a 27 point lead, including a 3-23 deficit at half time – the stirring second half comeback they launched was a reminder of what their backline can do when given the chance and while the 16-6 win over the French was a last gasp moment of genius in what had been a dire game, getting back on the winning trail was all that would have mattered.

Italy themselves have progressed year on year through the tournament and showed particularly with their win over France on the first weekend, that they are no longer the forward bully merchants that they used to be with some slick and sophisticated forward moves in a deserved win. Sadly they weren’t half the team against Scotland last weekend, but they’ve always struggled on the road badly and should present a stiff challenge, although captain and talisman Sergio Parisse being out is a massive blow to their chances. This is sure to tempt some into a handicap of 8 points, but  it’s important to note the improvement they’ve made over the years at home. England needed a charge down to win there last year, while Australia needed a botched try and missed penalty to sneak with success, while France have lost on their last two fixtures. Wales have winning margins of 6 pts, 5 pts, 30 pts and 10 pts in 4 of their last 6 visits (they lost the other two games by 3pts and 8pts), so the 1-12 winning margin seems the right way to go.

Advice

2.5 pts Wales to win by 1-12 points (7/5 Bet365)

6 Nations 2013 - England v France


Cast your mind back towards the beginning of this year’s 6 Nations tournament, or better still, the end of the November Internationals. Stuart Lancaster’s England had just destroyed World Cup winners New Zealand, while Phlippe Saint Andre’s France side had just completed a 100% Autmnun Series with relative ease against a Physical Samoa side after thrashing Australia and Argentina inbetween. At the time the two were joint favourites for this year’s 6 Nations, and many had earmarked this fixture as the potential title decider between the two. Things have changed in the interim.

Whisper it quietly and don’t tell Stuart Lancaster, but England come here no bigger than evens for the Grand Slam having won their two games, while France are strongly facing the prospect of a wooden spoon following two defeats, the first time they’ve done so in a 5/6 Nations season since 1982, both in performances totally devoid of the strength or flair they bough towards the Autumn Internationals, making England – who have lost at home just twice in the 6 Nations since 2010 – the heaviest of favourites for a clash which was seen as a Grand Slam decider just a few months ago. Wales’s improvement since the beginning of this championship means that nothing will be decided here at Twickenham today, but pass this test and England have just Italy and Wales between them and a first Grand Slam since 2003.

And if the first two weeks are anything to go by, then only one team will be winning this game. England’s 38-18 win over Scotland could easily have been more comfortable and was an impressive marker of intent, although their first win in Ireland since 2003 was a masterclass of game management, breakdown skill, and composure in downright awful conditions from all involved, with the immense physicality of the Irish forwards in particular not bothering England in the slightest.


However things are rarely that simple with regards to Le Crunch. As dire as France were against Italy and as dour as they were against Wales, few sides can motivate themselves for the one off occasions like the French can and it’s less than two years ago that this England side found themselves on the backlash of a France side that that had just been turned over by Tonga in their final group game; Just two matches later they found themselves in the final pushing New Zealand to just one point for the victory. This is a far superior England side and France will have to raise their game by many levels upon their first two displays to compete, but much of those displays came down towards a lack of width and creativity, mostly through the faults of fly half Frederik Michalak, who was so impressive during the Autumn but so dire this year, and the misplacing of several players in the backline.



Saint Andre’s eight changes this week are a massive statement of intent towards improving their chances for what he calls ‘his Grand Slam’.  The half back pairing of Machenaud and Michalak are dumped in favour of Parra and Trinh-Duc, both of whom have been in more impressive form for their clubs this season (with Trinh Duc having played most of his season at 10 unlike Michalak, who has been forced to sit at 9 for Wilkinson at Toulon), Vincent Clerc coming onto the wing and potentially most importantly, Wesley Fofana (seen above on wing) finally moving back towards his favored inside centre. These changes, along with the return to the side of Tomas Domingo and Yannick Nyanga, should bring an improved penetration and threat towards the attacking side of their game and make the contest competitive, but France’s away record in the 6 Nations does not make for impressive reading – they’ve beaten just Scotland since winning 22-25 at Ireland two years ago, and their record against England is even worse. Since the turn of the century on English soil, Les Bleus have lost 6 of their 8 matches on English soil – one of their wins being a calamitous 18-17 win where Charlie Hodgson and Olly Barkley missed six penalties and a drop goal between them. 


A seven point handicap on this year’s form would is more than fair – France have failed to cover that margin in 7 of the last 9 matches between England and France at Twickenham (which stretches back to 1999), although 3 of those 7 were by exactly 8 points. Of all the matches between the two in the last 5 years, only 6 out of 10 have been decided by more than 12 points, and with an improved French performance in mind, that might be the way to go; As a supplement, the remaining 8/11 on England leading at half and full time also looks worth backing, when you consider that England have led at half time in 6 of their last 7 home games, while France have led only once at half-time in their last six games in the Six Nations.


Advice


4 pts England to win by 1-12 points (11/8 general)


2 pts England/England (8/11 general)

Super Rugby 2013 - Week 2


Highlanders (5/6) v Chiefs (6/5)

Arguably the game of the weekend comes here in an early morning cracker, with last year’s Champions travelling to a side that many have tipped for big things following some eyecatching appointments over the winter, including World Cup winners Ma'a Nonu, Tony Woodcock and Brad Thorn. With the Chiefs a little light on backline players – Sonny Bill Williams, Jackson Williamson, and Robbie Robson are all absent from the last meeting – and the Highlanders having home advantage, the hosts get the call, with a narrow winning margin making far more appeal at double the price of the straight win; Last season they won 5 matches at home and only one by more than 12 points and a winning margin of more than 12 points over the Champions would be a shock; Consider the 1-5 winning margin.

Advice: 2 pts Highlanders to win by 1-12 points (7/4 Ladbrokes)



Rebels (5/2) v Brumbies (4/9) 

Wallaby watchers with this summer’s Lions tour in mind should enjoy this matchup of last week’s Australian derby winners with several potential starters facing off against eachother. While the Rebels were at times very unconvincing against the Force in week one, especially in the opening half, the Brumbies stopped the talented Reds backline in their tracks on their way to a comprehensive, if not unflattering, win, in week one. If as disciplined in defence, they should be able to take a fairly convicting win and cover a 5 point start.

Advice: 1 pt Brumbies -5 (10/11 general)


Bulls (6/5) v Stormers (4/5)

The first taste of Super Rugby for South Africa is a real heavyweight clash at Loftus Versfield, with two of last season’s Top 6 in the Bulls and the Stormers facing off against eachother. Both should expect to be fighting for the title at the end of the season and are very tough to split, but the Stormers topped the table in regular season time last year and have beaten the Bulls at home on the last two occasions, so get the vote to make it three, with the 1-5 point winning margin also suggested.

Advice: 2 pts Stormers to win by 1-12 points (15/8 Coral)


Hurricanes (1/2) v Blues (9/4)

Home advantage should see the Hurricanes, who have won three of their last four against the Blues, overcome the absence of Adrdie Savea and Cory Jane, both of whom provided the impetus of everything good at the club last season. This trends to be a high scoring game - 5 out of the last 6 matches between the sides have seen 48 points or more – and Bet 365’s mark of 50.5 can be beaten if both teams are in full flow.

Advice: 1 pt Over 50.5 points (91/100 Bet365)


Reds (4/5) v Waratahs (4/3)

The Reds were very disappointing in defeat at the Brumbies last week but they’re a better team than that effort shows and can edge their local showdown with the neighboring Waratahs on home soil. The likes of Quade Cooper, Ben Lucas, Will Genia, Ben Tapuai and Digby Ioane were all shut down from early on last weekend but things should be different and having tht effort under their belt could be a massive advantage given that the Tahs didn’t play last weekend.


Advice: 2 pts Reds to win by 1-12 points (15/8 Coral)


Cheeaths (9/4) v Sharks (1/2)


The Cheetahs are 6 point underdogs for this game and that line looks difficult to argue with, given that the Sharks reached the final last year. For all that the home side have more depth at 9-15 than last year, they are too reliant upon Johan Goosen at 10 and look vulnerable to a visiting side who have a great record here and should be smarting from losing last year’s final.

Advice: 1 pt Sharks -5 (10/11 Ladbrokes)


Southern Kings (6/1) v W Force (1/9)

The Southern Kings are hot wooden spoon favourites and may go home winless throughought the whole of Super Rugby, but should be best first time up infront of their fans at the Nelson Mandela stadium. With the forecast also not perfect  - high winds are expected – the handicap of upto 12 points looks potentially stiff even in light of the Force’s impressive display against the Rebels in week one. An away win by upto 12 points looks the best option.


Advice: 1 pt Force to win by 1-12 points (15/8 Paddy Power) 

India v Australia - Series Preview


England made history when becoming the first side to win a test series in India since 2003/04 and Australia may be able to repeat the feat and bring a marked point towards the improvement that they’ve made since their Ashes defeat at the hands of the Three Lions. For two sides who have produced such great games on a consistent basis throughout the last decade, the build up towards this series has been strangely muted, especially considering this is one of Australia’s last major tests before their Ashes double header against England later this year, and this is the first test series for India since that defeat to England.


And the circumstances between the two are remarkably similar. India come here a team very much in transition, although their move from old to new has been anything comfortable. Of the side that lost the third test against England, seven were present for their last test match against Australia, and much of the same side here has been present since the mid 2000’s. Australia won that series 2-0 with relative ease, but things have changed since.


Australia captain Michael Clarke with the Border-Gavaskar TrophyIndia have failed to win 6 of the 12 tests played following that 2-0 series win, with 6 of their wins during that period coming against West Indies and New Zealand, both sides who were ranked 9th and 10th in the World at the time, and even then they twice failed to cross the line against New Zealand twice and West Indies once, albeit with the series won at the time.  The statistics say that Since England's 1-1 draw in 2005/6, only South Africa (twice) and England have avoided defeat here or even managed to win a Test, while they’ve won 10, drawn four, and lost just one of the 15 series that have taken place within that time, but recent form puts a rather different spin on things and following that 2-1 series defeat to England, it’s very surprising to see them installed as just 4/6 for the series win less than 3 months after.


Many might say that this is an inferior Australia side compared to England but Michael Clarke’s (see above left) side have come on leaps and bounds since their Ashes defeat towards England, winning 12 of their 19 tests since including a 1-0 victory over Sri Lanka in their first series since that defeat. There’s admittedly a slight worry that this is the first time the Australians have actually played on the sub continent since that series, but they pushed South Africa as close as they’ve possibly been towards a series defeat just this January – a series they were very unlucky to lose – and it’s important to remember that they were just as convincing winners over India at home in identical fashion to England (4-0). In the run up towards that series many had dismissed the visitors chances due to a supposed inability to deal with sub – continental conditions and the reversal in conditions, yet England ran out very convincing winners after a heavy first test defeat and it’s surprising to see Australia bigger to simply avoid defeat than India are to win the series. The 11/10 with Hills on Australia coming out of India unscathed looks to be easily the best bet of the series, while 4/1 on the hosts to take the spoils and the 8/1 on them winning 2-1 are also worth adding to the portfolio if history and statistics are to be believed.

Cheteshwar Pujara got past 100 for the second time in the series, India v England, 2nd Test, Mumbai, 1st day, November 23, 2012As far as the player betting is concerned, Australia’s chances will rely upon Nathan Lyon if many are to be believed, and with England’s series winning challenge having been spearheaded by Graeme Swann and Monty Panesar – the pair took 30 wickets between them in the series win and much of England’s success came at the hands of Panesar’s addition into the squad after the first test – and with Lyon being the only established spinner in the side, he looks value at 7/2 to spearhead the winning challenge.

For India, Pragyan Ojha has been the most successful spinner since his inclusion into the side and looks to be a must bet for top bowler. Boasting a quite remarkable 95 wickets in just 25 tests, Ojha took 6 more wickets than main rival Ravichandran Ashwin over the course of the England series and with Harbajan Singh presumably past the peak of his powers, he looks to have the leading role if the home side are to succeed. The same too can be said of Chestwar Pujara (left), who came second only to Alistair Cook in the runscoring stakes in the England series – he was 100 runs clear of Kevin Pietersen – and should be less threatened by Nathan Lyon and others rather than the spin duo of Swann and Panesar, who restricted him to just 56 in the 4 innings after his second century.




Advice – Outright betting


5 pts Australia/Draw double chance (11/10 Hills)


2 pts Australia (4/1 Paddy Power, Stan James)


1 pt 2-1 Australia (8/1 Stan James, Bet365)


Advice – Player betting


1 pt Nathan Lyon top Australia bowler (7/2 general)


1 pt Praygan Ojha top India bowler (2/1 Boylesports)


1 pt Cheteshwar Pujara top India batsman (7/2 general)


Advice – Specials betting

1 pt India to win 1st test and lose series (25/1 Bet365)