Thursday 31 May 2012

Heron Stakes 2012


8.05 Sandown
Betfair Heron Stakes (Listed) (Class 1)  (3YO only)
Winner £18,714

Advice: 2 pts win Top Offer (9/4 Blue Sq, 888Sport), 1 pt each/way Eastern Sun (8/1 Sportingbet, Coral, 7/1 w/Skybet who will pay ¼ and 3 places)

Owner detailsSaigon: Upset 4-9 chance (with pair well clear in the closing stages) after sluggish start and even better when overhauling good types at Newbury in style of a progressive sort; Not won since then but kept very good company; Might be a touch exposed.

Owner detailsStipulate:  Career best when making impressive comeback in listed company at Newmarket in Fielden Stakes and forgiven his effort in the Bet365 Classic Trial on account of the really heavy ground; Clearly talented but might be one for middle distances and has a penalty to carry for his win there; Might be a back to lay option at 18’s though, especially if sent to the front.

Owner detailsCogito: Created a very good impression when landing Newmarket Maiden in April, which was impressive considering how notably yard’s runners come on for a run; 4 subsequent winners come from that event so form looks strong given the fact that he was clear in his own time, and has to be respected.

Owner detailsEastern Sun: Impressive maiden winner who didn’t handle heavy ground in Solario Stakes of last year; Put that right with AW conditions stakes win at Kempton and then third in the Craven Stakes (possibly on ground with more cut than he’d like) just 12 days later; Good horse on what we’ve seen and should be respected with trainer and jockey in form.

Owner detailsKarhman: All the way winner of 1m Kempton AW maiden when he took subsequent winner with him all the way; Yard in cracking form and surely has more to offer on both experience and improvement, so has to be respected.

Owner detailsOcean Tempest: This seems to be a big ask for a horse who was beaten off 76 last Thursday; Respectable horse but he’s got so much to prove this year.

Owner detailsRedact: Sharp 2yo, winning first two races by a total winning distance of eight lengths before Super Sprint fourth, amongst his better efforts; Midfield in Guineas after Free Handicap fourth and might need to find more against unexposed types.

Owner detailsTales Of Grimm: Taking, if not clear cut winner of his maiden in marginally quicker time than other division winner Top Offer, beating subsequent clear cut winner and Fillies Mile third Firdaws (got blocked in her run); That form gives him a chance and respected although stable not having a great time with seasonal debutants.

Owner detailsTop Offer: Clearly very talented based on Newbury maiden win last August, confirming high home reputation in style; Earmarked for big things since then but missed Greenham on account of testing ground and likely that same thing didn’t suit him in 2,000 Guineas itself; Easy to forgive that run and while it might be churlish to suggest this is a drop in class, he’s got potential in abundance, should strip fitter and not hard to give another chance.

Owner detailsIrish History: Emphatic six and a half length winner of Windsor maiden, drawing right away from seemingly moderate field although that can take nothing away from her win; This a hard test for her but must be respected anyway.

VERDICT: A very competitive race with lots to offer in terms of future potential. It says a lot about the quality of the race that one could say TOP OFFER isn’t definitely the most promising horse in the field, but he deserves another chance to atone for his failed Guineas tilt on faster ground. Cogito, Tales Of Grimm and Irish History all deserve respect but EASTERN SUN could easily be a solid each/way bet, with his Craven third looking like good form in this context. Those who want a back to lay in running could do much worse than look at Stipulate, who was clearly going best in the Fielden and could contract massively in running from 18/1 ((17 on Betfair at this time of writing). 

Brigadier Gerard Stakes 2012


7.55 Sandown
Betfair Brigadier Gerard Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)
Winner £31,190

Advice: 1 pt win I’m A Dreamer (4/1 Sportingbet)

Owner detailsColombian: Improved for step up in trip when a well backed and clear cut winner of Chester maiden, and has bettered that with two huge runs in major French races, fourth in the French Derby and then a luckless third in well contested Group 2 Guillame D’Orono; Held his own really well towards the end of the season and back in style when landing Gordon Richards Stakes on heavy ground last time; Penalty for that but well capable of landing this and interesting to see him drifting in the morning (possibly on account of fast ground).

Owner detailsCarlton House: Promising debut was blown out the of the water by demolition job in 1m maiden win at Newbury, marking him down as exciting prospect; Confirmed that impression when defying slowly run race and keen early start to come out well on top in Dante (also came through horses), cementing position as Derby favourite; Things didn’t quite go his way (previous injury scare on week) at Epsom, having been asked to make large amount of ground up from long way out, run flattening out in final furlong; Ran flat in Irish Derby but still not beaten far by top quality Irish colts and deserves respect here, although yard’s form a worry (3-29 with runners coming from a +100 day absence).

Owner detailsHunter’s Light: Created Group class impression when slamming Dee Stakes 2nd in maiden at Newmarket & made quick amends for Royal Ascot disappointment (behind Slumber) when toughing it out having made smooth headway at Hamilton; Staying on third in the Gordon Stakes and then disappointed in the Voltiegur but shaped like group class horse when completing Listed double at end of last season; Best forgive his listed run, when he travelled like the winner all over before finding little on very sticky ground

Owner detailsSagramor:  Bagged two valuable handicaps over a mile last season, getting the better of tight finish to the Brittannia Handicap after landing Silver Bowl; Disappointed twice afterwards and this a damn hard return for one who’s untried in group company.

Owner detailsI’m A Dreamer: Made into a very smart mare after wide margin Group 3 win last season, although she had a disappointing summer before putting things right before the end of the year; Excellent reappearance run behind Izzi Top and Sajhaa; That run a very solid effort and better surely expected so needs respecting here.

Owner detailsSos Brilliante: Always out of her depth and same story again.

VERDICT: On form Carlton House should win and win well but he’s a short enough price anyway without Sir Michael Stoute having had just 3 winners of the 29 runners that have returned from a 100 day break or more this season. There are two strong options to take him on with, not least the filly I’M A DREAMER, who was behind two group class fillies at York when last seen and should come on for that and put up a bold show here. Colombian is also a big player on his best form despite a 3lbs penalty and Hunter’s Light could be the perfect back to lay option. 

Betfair Henry II Stakes 2012


7.20 Sandown
Betfair Henry II Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)
Winner £31,190

Advice: 2 pts win Times Up (4/1 general)


Owner detailsLey Hunter: Finally put class to use over staying trips (had been disappointing since failing for a run in the Prix Maurice De Neuil) when winning very slowly run Prix Galdiateur towards backend of last year, and improved again despite form reverse when third in Cadran at Arc meeting; Since moved to Godolphin and interesting if he’s allowed to take his chance, but hard to be wholly confident about him showing his best.

Owner detailsOpinion Poll:  Took record to 9-24 when landing Group 3 staying contest at Meydan and best of these based on form which saw him landing Yorkshire and Goodwood Cups, while also coming an excellent staying on second in the Gold Cup behind Fame & Glory; That form makes him the favourite’s choice here and will be thereabouts.

Owner detailsAiim To Prosper: Since just about made into a group horse in 6 runs after landing the Cesarawitch, his best efforts both coming over this C&D, beaten a nose in Listed company; Held by most of these on best form though and will come on for this run an awful lot.

Owner detailsAskar Tau: Once the flavour of the day in this division completing Doncaster/Yorkshire Cup double after progression from handicap company; Went off rails after that but hinted at coming back to best with fifth in Ascot Gold Cup and Sagaro Stakes win was impressive; Not out of this by any means.

Owner detailsBlue Bajan: Rolled back the years when landing last year’s renewal at Sandown on third start of last year; Hinted at retaining the ablity that landed him that race but this year’s renewal looks better and much more needed today.

Owner detailsChiberta King: Good second to Times Up and then nosed out Aaim To Prosper in Listed contests last year, but failed to get involved in stronger contests, of which today’s looks the latter; Needs more.

Owner detailsOld Hundered; Picked up progression that saw him land the Mallard Handicap at Doncaster when landing decent enough AW handicap at Kempton last time, nosing out runner up who was carrying 12lbs less than him; Might win again in handicaps but this should be far too tough.

Owner detailsTimes Up: Resumed progression from two seasons ago (when ready winner of November Handicap) when winning big handicap and then when running out a ready winner of a Listed event; Gap s didn’t come for him in Group 2 (should have won) but put that right with excellent win in Listed event before staying on fifth in the QIPCO Staying event; Now 2lbs better off with Opinion Poll and has a run in the Yorkshire Cup under his belt; Promising.

Owner detailsZuider Zee: Top handicapper who didn’t run a bad race last season before winning the November Handicap (romped away with that event) and then again progressed with Listed second and third, probably finding trip too short on both occasions; Needs to find a bit more but wouldn’t surprise if he took a leading hand.

Owner detailsIbicenco: Very smart German performer who was second to second to Campanologist in Cologne Group 1 in September; Below form on first start for his yard but that run behind him and he was doing his best work towards the end of the race, however slowly; Needs more but can bounce back and wouldn’t want to be too strongly dismissive of his chances.

VERDICT: Opinion Poll’s the rightful favourite but not much separates him and TIMES UP, and with the latter double the price and now 2lbs better off for their October meeting, it’s not hard to see him as a value bet here, with Ley Hunter yet to run for Godolphin and questions over the others, although Zuider Zee and Ibicenco have their claims with the trip promising to improve them as horses.



National Stakes 2012


6.45 Sandown
Betfair Funds The PJA Doctor National Stakes (Listed) (Class 1)  (2YO only)
Winner £13,043

Advice: 1 pt win Storm Moon (2/1 Paddy Power, Stan James)


Owner detailsMossgo: Travelled strongly when off mark at first time of asking in 5f Yarmouth maiden, but couldn’t be restrained when failing to cope with stronger company at Kempton next time and this yet harder still.

Owner detailsMosstang: Coughed and lost his action when well behind Lyric Ace on second start and put that right with AW maiden win, confirming promise that she showed when behind Baileys Jubilee at Kempton; Does seem held on that form though.

Owner detailsOcean Applause: Seemed as if he’d take more than one run to get to peak when always behind on recent Newmarket debut, so left behind here.

Owner detailsPixilated: Travelled well on debut at Catterick, travelling notabaly smoothly for the only newcomer at 11/2 in 5f Auction maiden; Should come on for that but that form hasn’t really worked out with winner being well beaten in Listed company and other days might make more appeal for him.

Owner detailsSir Prancealot: Well backed for debut at Bath for yard that excels with all kinds of two year olds and also in this race, with 4 winners in the last decade of this event; Cosy winner at Bath and respected on that basis although that form also looks very weak now.

Owner detailsStorm Moon: Won both starts in taking style, with 4 winners behind him in Musselbrugh maiden before then romping home with Southwell AW maiden; Form of latter event weak but clearly a smart type and deserves a lot of respect.

Owner detailsTop Boy: Fourth to Irish Listed winner Cay Verde at Ascot last time, her best ever effort after better efforts each time; Form of first two not really working out as one would like and needs more again here.

Owner detailsBaileys Jubilee: First hotshot two year old of the season, with impressive Kempton win working out well before romping away with small field Newmarket condtions stakes; Flopped in Listed company last time and harder to fancy off the back of that here despite obvious capacity to bounce back.

Owner detailsEffie B: Much better than debut when slamming  stablemate Golac 7 lengths in 5f maiden at Nottingham and then followed up with poor effort, only to improve again when third at York latest; More than that needed but must be respected.

VERDICT: Sir Prancelot is a worthy favourite on the style of his first win at Bath and his stable has a good record in this, but STORM MOON makes more appeal. He had several winners behind him on his first start and while his Southwell win amounts to nothing, it was still taking and one has to think he’ll take all the beating today.  Bailey’s Jubilee is good enough to win a few renewals of this but it’s hard to fancy her after being so readily beaten at York and while she can be forgiven that run, this is a strong task once again. 

Wednesday 30 May 2012

Euro 2012 Outright Advice

We’ve never had it so good. A phrase once used by Harold MacMillan to describe economic prosperity in Britain, but a good quite when thinking about the quality of teams at this summer ‘s fast onrushing European Championships. 14 of the top 26 ranked teams in the world according to FIFA are lining up here, with 4 of the top 10 having found their way into just one group.  Not only that, but the World Cup finalists and winners are all back for more, while the beaten semi-finalists (beaten by an 80th minute goal) there are judged by many to have improved significantly since. With the World Cup finalists of 2006 both back with improved squads in a bid to try and erase harrowing memories of poor tournaments since, everything seems set fair for a great tournament.

Wesley Sneijder 


Many have this tournament between Germany and Spain, who met in the final of this competition last time around and then again in the World Cup semi-finals, but ask anyone in Holland if they’d have played the World Cup final differently in Bert Van Marjwik’s shoes and you’d get a resounding yes, (amongst other things). For those who can’t cast their mind back all that time, Holland came into the final having gotten past the easier passage, although there can be few qualms with a 2-1 defeat of Brazil – even with Felipe Melo being sent off and Brazil self- imploding in the second half, and had high hopes, having won every game of their World Cup campaign (including qualifiers) beforehand. However very soon into the game things turned ugly and Holland’s slick style was swapped for a thuggish set of overly physical, ridiculously aimless challenges. Refree Howard Webb dished out 14 yellow cards – including two to send off the Holland defender John Heitinga – while many criticised him for  not dishing out a red card for Nigel de Jong's karate kick to the chest of Xabi Alonso as well as handing a second booking to Arjen Robben for kicking the ball away. In the end, we all know this failed miserably with Spain getting the one counter attack goal needed to end the final before penalties, the Oranjie were sent home in disgrace. However they’ve since gone back to their exciting winning ways – they’ve won 23 of their last 25 competitive matches – and if sticking true to their attacking finesse, then few better teams will be in the tournament and while they’re in the group of death, they should fear nobody and any wins gained early will prepare them mentally for the knockouts – which might even be easier on paper with any one of Russia, Poland, Cezchslovakia and Greece awaiting them if they make it. Tons of attacking talent (more in the Group guides) mean they’ll be hard to hold for anyone, but the questions in defence can be overridden if they get enough of the ball early while Van Marjwik will try to be as safe as possible, while having three in form goalkeepers is also likely to at least provide solid backup, if not being quite the player that Edwin Van Der Sar was.  Taking all this into account, it’s hard to see why they’re double the price of Germany and Spain, which allows for an each/way bet along with a tasty 5/4 on them to make the semi final – a price which appeals given that you’d imagine they’d be shorter than that to beat the winners of Group A if getting through the Group of death.
 
Spain are deserving favourites in their bid for a historic treble and they should go close whatever happens, but there’s a feeling that it’s always been tight between them and the rest of the top European packs. Portugal had plenty of first half chances to beat them in the last 16 of the World Cup, Paraguay missed a penalty in their quarter final, Germany were proving hard to break down until Puyol found the net in their semi, and Holland didn’t given themselves the best chance they could in the showpiece. Granted that Vicente Del Bosque’s side controlled (and will do at this tournament) so much of the ball that it’s impossible to get a string of chances against them, and they’ll set a high standard, but it’s so hard to be interested in quotes of 3/1 to win the tournament as that looks dreadfully short.  World Cup runners up in 2002, Beaten semi-finalists in the next two tournaments, and runners up in the last Euros (beaten by the eventual Champions on four of those occasions), Germany have become the main choice for many to gain the trophy many will feel that they deserve for their efforts, and this team should be just about ready to hit their peak. Beaten by Spain in the 2010 World Cup, that squad has now grown together over the last two years and came through qualifying in the most impressive style of any team present. A team full of talent in both attacking and defensive areas (backed up by Maneul Neuer’s presence in goal), they too have a great chance, but odds of just 3/1 seem very skinny on them at this stage. England are next in the betting but they’ve never been past the quarter finals of any Euros since making the smeis as hosts in 1996 and they’ve won just 7 matches in their history. With Spain, Holland, Germany and others looking superior, that prices make no appeal at all.

Italy have improved leaps and bounds from a horror World Cup defence – when they failed to win a single game – and have to be respected with coach Cesare Prandelli having inserted a touch of flair to the stuffy pragmatism that made the Italians World Cup winners. They’re not quite the second bet I’m looking for though. Ever since France made the final of the 2006 World Cup, the decline has been steep and rapid, but deep and through changes to the team have seen those events put well behind the shambles that was Raymond Domench’s 2010 outfit.

Rumours of a rift in their squad developed into a fully-fledged row that saw Les Bleus striker Nicolas Anelkas sent home in disgrace on for arguing with Domenech - and the fall-out from that incident saw captain Patrice Evra dropped for their final game with South Africa. But to be fair, the signs were aready there beforehand. Henry’s handball against Ireland was the only reason they had been there in the first game and their opening draw against Uruguay was the worst game of the tournament bar none. Fast forward two years on, and every member of the World Cup squad was axed for the first game of Laurent Blanc’s new era and they’ve gotten better and better since. Unbeaten in 19 matches on the international stage, they topped their qualifying section despite losing their first game to Belarus. Wins against England and Germany on the road in friendlies prove little but they should be able to hold their own against the top teams, while the market sees them avoiding Spain (assuming they win Group C) in the quarters, before a potentially mouthwatering clash against Germany in the semis. That’s a tall task but underestimating such an improving side would be foolish in the extreme and with the group draw working out that they’ve avoided the three teams rightfully ahead of them in the betting, while they’ve made just as much, if not more progress as a team than Italy since the last World Cup.

Of the others, Portugal make most appeal as a cover bet for Holland in the Group Of Death. Yet to win one of these competitions despite making the quarter finals in each of the last four tournaments, Paulo Bento’s side were runners up on home soil in 2004 and have since gone to the World Cup quarters before they had the misfortune of meeting Spain in the last World Cup. They gave Spain a good run for their money before being edged out in the last 16 of the World Cup, while they’ve scored 3 goals or more in 6 of their 10 qualifying games. They should go out at the first stage but if they make it through then it’ll be mightily hard to stop them and their defence has held well at the top level before, so quotes of 20/1 look worth having onside, as they’ve got the potential to trade much shorter in running during the tournament. Russia  made the semis in 2008 but a lack of goals is a worry now, while I wouldn’t fancy them to beat Holland this time around (or Portugal for that matter, while even Denmark wouldn’t be a pushover should the ‘unthinkable’), Poland have talented members of the Borussia Dotrumnd team but are also likely to find their quarter final too strong, Ukraine have a tough group and then an even worse quarter, Croatia have a terrinble group, Sweden might not have the chemistry, the Cezchs seem on the decline, Denmark need to make it through the group, and Greece and Ireland look like they like the firepower upfront to make their defensive strength count.

Advice

2 pts win, 1 pt each/way Holland (7/1 general, 13/2 Bet Victor*)

1 pt win, 1 pt each/way France (12/1 Paddy Power)

1 pt each/way Portugal (20/1 general) 

Saturday 19 May 2012

2012 CL Final Update


I’ve not bothered to write an official match preview for the Champions League, with the each/way part of our bet on Bayern Munich banked ahead of their meeting with Chelsea tonight. Home advantage (the final will be played in the Allianz Arena despite Chelsea being allowed to take 25,000) and having less damaging – on paper – suspensions has seen Bayern made the favourites, but all the value has gone from a team that  was trahed in the German Cup final just a week ago by Borussia Dortumnd. There’s a temptation to hedge on Chelsea at 18-5 (infact by backing the 2-0 scores on a hunch earlier this week I have done) although the loss of Ramires, Ivaonvic  & Terry is a very offputting factor.

MOTM

In keeping with the strategy of hedging, one candidate from both sides is needed. Since 2004, all but one of the Man Of The Match winners has been a striker or attacking midfielder (Edwin Van Der Sar’s victory in 2008 being down to the penalty shootout win for Manchester United). If Chelsea win then Juan Mata, second only in assists to David Silva in this season’s Premiership, should be closely looked at, having gotten the award in the FA Cup final after an excellent performance.  On the right side of the field he should have plenty of influence, while also having one of the higher chances of scoring.

For Bayern, Franck Ribery is as influential as anyone and an excellent case has already been made by Mark Langdon in the Racing Post. 12 assists in the Bundesliga is three more than anyone else has managed, while he’s sure to be one of the focal shooting points of Bayern Munich’s attack if (as expected) Chelsea try to sit back and let Bayern come onto them heavily tonight.

1st Scorer

Didier Drogba has 5 goals in 6 starts and an incredible finals scoring record. With Chelsea sure to look towards him as the focal point of their attack, he has to be given the vote to score first at 9/1 with Paddy Power – who will refund stakes if Chelsea win - the perfect hedge.

As for Bayern, there’s only one place to look – Mario Gomez. Scorer of the first goal an astonishing 11 times for Bayern this season, he’s also smashed in 12 goals in this year’s competition and 4/1 about him notching first – as strikers have done for the last four years – seems to be a sensible plan. 

Thursday 17 May 2012

Today's Racing - 18th May 2012

York

1.30 -All over Baileys Jubilee - the best 2yo filly seen so far this season by a good way - while wondering just why Ingleby Royale is as big as 16/1, with the only possible reason I can think of being a switch from softish to good ground. The latter could be a great each/way or place bet but this is all about the favourite going 3-3. 

2.00 - Spifer's got the best form in the race and should come on again, but he might just need this a touch and the fact that he threw away two valuable handicaps by hanging last year is disconcerting. Caucus is shortish for this at just 6's, but he did impress on his return at Newmarket and ran as if he was about to fulfil the tries at group company that he'd been given last season when making good ground late. He looks to have a first rate chance of landing this, while War Poet also deserves respect along with many others.

2.30 - Harris Tweed has a big chance but so does Red Cadeux and the fact that Colour Vision broke the course record in the Sagaro underlines how well he ran with a penalty, so I'd be inclined to pick him over what looks like a pretty promising field. It should also be remembered that he'd proving himself in Group 1 company on his last two starts beforehand. Be Fablulous and Arctic Cosmos have big chances if finding their best form

Advice: 1 pt win Red Cadeux (11/4 general) 

3.00 - Laugh Out Loud needs to settle better but she's 3lbs better off with Lily's Angel having finished nearly level in the Guineas and gets the vote on that basis while Tactfully and Way Too Hot deserve some respect if taking that form literally. 

Not looked too deeply into the 3.35 but Master Bond gets a 5lbs claimer to ease his mark, which takes the eye from his good draw.

4.10 - This sees the NAP of the day in Sandusky, who I had down as an eyecatcher from his return at Newmarket. Held up out the back and very keen early while the race was run at a crawl for a comeptitve handicap he then went through the pack in the last two furlongs, threateneing to win before flattening out late on into fourth. With the first two having had a previous run this season, fitness only told in the last 100 yards and I'd like to think that he could reverse that form despite having started on a fairly leinent mark. He has a very wide draw to deal with, but the fact he gets further and won't lack for fitness should help him overcome that and the 11/10 about him making the 1st four appeals greatly, along with the 5/1 on him winning in generall. My saver would be Shamdarley, who didn't look quick enough for a mile at Doncaster when seventh in the Spring Mile but ought to enjoy the return to this trip and has a great draw in stall 5. 

Advice: 2 pts win Sandusky (5/1 general), 4 pts Sandusky to make 1st 4 (11/10 Paddy Power), 1 pt each/way Shamadarley (8/1 Bet Victor)




Nothing appeals at the prices in the last (4.45) from Key Gold, who would be the token each/way choice for the De Sousa/Johnson combo. Daneking could improve a lot from his third at Sandown but would need to if he's to justify his odds of just 7/2.

Newmarket 

3.55 - Danadana, another one of the eyecatchers from the Guineas meeting, looks to have an outstanding chance if settling better today. Previously fifth in a decent looking renewal of the King George handicap last season, he moved smoothly on the front end and was never off the bridle until 2 & 1/2 furlongs out, where fitness told. That was a good race and while this is competitive, he should be looking to go very well here. 

Advice: 1 pt each/way Danadana (9/1 Paddy Power)


Newbury


2.10 - Surprised that Starscope is going upto 10 furlongs instead of staying over a mile (sure that I'd heard she was going towards the Guineas) but she was strong at the finish in the 1,000 Guineas, will handle the cut, and comes from a team in storming form. Firdaws should turn into a good middle distance sort this year but the run might be crucial and as such Starcope gets the vote; I'd want to be judging Lacily on this run but the top two make more appeal.

Advice: 1 pt win Starscope (6/4 Boylesports)

Tuesday 15 May 2012

Ideal England Squad 2012

(1) Denotes preference in playing terms (1st 11) 
*Special notice

GK - Joe Hart (1)
Ben Foster (2)
John Ruddy (3)

Defence
LB - Leighton Baines (1)
Ashley Cole (2)
CB - Rio Ferdinand (1)
Gary Cahill
Joleon Lescott (2)
Phil Jones
RB - Michah Richards (1)
Glen Johnson (2)

Midfield
LM - Adam Johnson (1)
Theo Walcott (2)
CM - James Milner (2*)
Frank Lampard (1)
RM – Ashley Young (1)
Aaron Lennon (2)

Strikers
ST - Wayne Rooney *1 (1)
Daniel Sturridge (1)
Danny Welbeck (2)
Peter Crouch (4)
Andy Caroll (5)

*Milner would start every game.

Not that much to say apart from the fact that I'm going for pace and power, especially down the wings, where we excel at creating opportunities (our best players are there anyway, and that's behind the best English team performances in the CL). This is the reason behind putting Baines (who has excelled this season and is great from a dead ball situation, while crossing as well), and Richards either side of Ferdinand and Lescott, who haven't been great over the season but have certainly outperformed everyone else and also have CL experience. No Terry as he's a liability and wasn't as good as Ferdinand anyway.

Midfield's all about speed, wingplay, crossing/dead ball skills, and club form. Going to Manchester once again, where Johnson should have gotten double the chances and has been superb whenever seen - he has 6 goals and assists this season from only a handful of appearances. Young has had his dives (and they were bad) but is class and can beat players, score goals and offers a good crossing option. Lennon's basically Walcott but he's got better end product, while Milner and Lampard and just solid going forward and back and will be confident after club seasons that yielded really strong finishes.

Rooney will go with the strikers but I'd be looking for big performances from the young guns to threaten his place and is worth remembering how badly he played at the WC in 2010. I'd take a chance on Sturridge in the front and centre role, hoping that quality service from both wings and Wellbeck as his back up partner gives him the confidence to succed.

Friday 11 May 2012

Weekend Thoughts - 11th May - 13th May

Too busy to go into detail unless you follow me up on Twitter (@KeejayOV) as I’ve got more pressing (obvious) matters this week.

Racing

Ascot

2.20: Aiken (nb)
5.40: Local Hero*

Note: I’ve got no official interest in the Victoria Cup, but at a quick glance I like one on each side; King Of Jazz (3) and Nasri (21) - although Brae Hill (8) likes the the ground, which could make all the difference

Lingfield

2.10 Fallen For You w/o Fav
2.40 Vow
3.10: Shantaram
3.45: World Domination (nap)**
4.20: Emilo Largo

Haydock:

3.40 All The Aces (each/way)

*Local Hero may run in the 3.15 at Nottingham, where I think he'd have an even better chance than at Ascot, and the advice is to back him wherever he goes.

** The nap would be a 3pt win, otherwise just 1 pt as standard

Sunday Racing

Longchamp

1.30 Loi
2.40 Beauty Parlour
3.10 Dragon Pulse

Leopardstown

3.15 Alla Speranza
3.45 Light Heavy

F1

Spanish GP Practice/Qualifying –

1 pt each/way Nico Roseberg in GP3 (10/1 Bet Victor)

3 pts Sebastian Vettel to make top 3 in GP3 (7/10 Bwin)

Spanish GP – Race

3 pts Romain Grosjean Top 6 finish (10/11 Paddy Power)

1 pt Williams Double Finish (Advised at with 6/1 Paddy Power beforehand, now 23/4 with Bwin)

After Qualifying -

1 pt win, 0.5 pts each/way Jenson Button (20/1 Bet365; Subject to change according to what odds are offered for points and top 6 finishes)

3 pts Jenson Button to win Bet Victor's Group B (Must beat Mark Webber, Sergio Perez, and Kayumi Kobayshi; 6/4)

1 pt each/way Pastor Maldonado (10/1 Ladbrokes)

UPDATE: Pastor Maldonado was magnificent when coming second while Bruno Senna crashed out into 18th. Hopes are still high of a double points finish for Williams though (they've had success running a long race strategy this season), while Jenson Button can thrive for a longer race set up if overcoming his steering problems. The 20/1 about his winning is too big to ignore, along with the 6/4 about him beating Webber, Perez, and Kobayashi). As for Maldonado, given that he now has pole following Hamilton's unfortunate deduction, 10/1 looks a little big and is worth a tickle. 

Rugby

Premiership

3 pts Harlequins to win by 1-12 points (6/4 Ladbrokes)*

2 pts Leicester to win by 1-12 points (6/4 Ladbrokes) 

*Forgive me for leaving this unchanged but check through my twitter and you'll see that I recommended Quins to win by 1-12

Wednesday 9 May 2012

Chester Vase 2012


2.35 Chester
MBNA Chester Vase (Group 3) (Class 1)  (3YO only)
Winner £31,190

Advice: 3 pts win Call To Battle (11/4 Bet Victor)

Owner detailsDavid Livingston: Tough as teak 2 year old who impressed when winning his maiden before solid efforts in Group company, culminating in gutsy win over highly rated Akeed Mofeed in the Beresford Stakes at Curragh; Disappointing when fifth and behind Call To Battle in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown, but that came in March (quiet time for the stable) and likely to come forward hugely for that, while he’s very adept on this ground; Big chance.

Owner detailsCall To Battle: Came forward with every single start as a 2 year old last season, winning an easy ground maiden at the Curragh before grinding things out in Listed Eyrefield Stakes at the Curragh (once again on ground with cut); Expected to make up into a St Ledger type after that  - he is closely related to the 2000 winner of the Doncaster Classic, Millenary (also bags of classy stayers in the pedigree) – but showed more than enough pace for shorter distances this season when an excellent second in the Ballysax Stakes on his seasonal debut (well ahead of David Livingston), shaping as if he’d find vast improvement for stepping up 2 furlongs; Big chance here with this ground not expected to be too much of a hinderance.

Owner detailsMickdaam: Progressive for Mike De Kock; Showed best form up in trip, winning Al Bastakiya in good style, clearly relishing the step up in trip having been badly found for speed on first two UAE runs this season; First run for Richard Fahey a good one when second in sales race at Newmarket and good chance on that form here with step up in trip likely to help.

Owner detailsMinimise Risk: Made a very promising debut at Doncaster in a race that has produced two other winners (tightened up) and then impressed many when showing strong attitude to beat Uriah Heap on soft ground at Newbury (travelled by far the best of any horse in that race before being brought into prolonged battle); Related to Darasim so stamina no problem and interesting to see him here.

Owner detailsModern Pupil: Only one of these not in the Derby but has an entry in the King George V Stakes and more than promising enough debut behind Mighty Ambiton (considered good enough to take in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket) and Rewarded (won twice since); Since won good looking Newmarket maiden by a nose from nice sort who himself had decent form (third and fifth won since) and wil step up in trip bound to bring him on, one of the most interesting prospects in the field.

VERDICT: A good race in its own right with all 5 holding some sort of chance, the three of those who raced in group company taking on 2 exciting prospects. Ballydoyle are having a great start to the UK season (had a winner and neck second here yesterday) and with three wins in the last 5 years David Livingston will be liked to make that 4 in 6, but he’s got some ground to make up on CALL TO BATTLE, who shaped with a very encouraging amount of speed over 10 furlongs in the Ballysax given his pedigree on his seasonal debut, and with soft ground not expected to be a problem, he should take the beating. Mickdaam, Minimise Risk & Model Pupil are all sure to like this step up in trip, while Minimise Risk is already a soft ground winner.

Huxley Stakes 2012


2.05 Chester
Betfair Huxley Stakes (For The Tradesman's Cup) (Group 3) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)
Winner £31,190

Advice: 2 pts win Questioning (3/1 general)


Owner detailsWigmore Hall: Gained a deserved Group 1 win after many unlucky trips (most of all when blocked for a run behind Cape Blanco in Arlington Million) in Canadian International; No wins since despite strong efforts in many races, never able to get a blow into the Dubai Duty Free or the Ganay the last twice, but these are calmer waters; Saddled with penalty and would want it a touch quicker though.

Owner detailsQuestioning: Improved on all form last season and his seasonal debut when winning the Earl Of Sefton at Newmarket, beating Group 1 winner Twice Over; Followed that up with a really creditable second in the Bet365 Mile, this year run on heavy ground; 3lbs penalty for his Group 3 win but that form as good as any here, has plum draw, and sure to go on the ground so has to be highly respected.

Owner detailsGlen’s Diamond: Stepped up from maiden win at land Nursery at two (two wins from three starts); Looked group class when winning with off mark of 90 in 1m1f Musselburgh handicap on seasonal debut & confirmed that impression when running out ready winner of Dee Stakes; Not gone on from that since but showed signs of a return to form in Dubai.

Owner detailsHunter’s Light: Created Group class impression when slamming Dee Stakes 2nd in maiden at Newmarket & made quick amends for Royal Ascot disappointment (behind Slumber) when toughing it out having made smooth headway at Hamilton; Staying on third in the Gordon Stakes and then disappointed in the Voltiegur but shaped like group class horse when completing Listed double at end of last season and goes on this ground, so has to be of considerable interest.  

Owner detailsJunoob: Had shown rapid improvement throughought the winter on the All Weather since moving to Dascombe yard locally, including Listed race in February; Not upto the big occasion but never got a run, although needs to do much better than his third in Doncaster conditions contest here.

Owner detailsMacret: Consistent in Italy (10 time winner) and ran really well on his first start for the yard when third in the Al Rashidiya; Not really found same form since in either Al Fahdid or handicap off 108 but handles soft ground and deserves to take his chance here with Ryan Moore an eyecatching boking for Chester mad owner Marwan Koukash.

Owner detailsPrice Siegfried: Game and gutsy winner of the Winter Hill Stakes three starts back but since been well beaten by Hunter’s Light on his next start and Questioning on his comeback and looks set to be outclassed here on all form.

Owner detailsSt Moritz: Strict form chance on his second (demoted to third upon interference with Questioning and entitled to improve a little as it was his first run since Jan; Steps up in trip though and this ground quite a worry.

Owner detailsMyplacelater: Lost her way since last peak of her efforts, notably when second to Crystal Capella in the Pride Stakes; Handles soft ground (career best on it) but needs to find her way again.

VERDICT: A good renewal. Little separates Hunter’s Light and COLOMBIAN in the betting but with the plum draw (at least for positional reasons, if not for the rail that the riders were shirking at the end of yesterday’s racing), and three runs under his belt this season, John Gosden’s 4 year old gets the vote despite giving 3lbs to the Goldophin charge. Macret is interesting if at his best (like his first UAE run) while Wigmore Hall has the class to be involved despite his penalty.