Newmarket Guineas Meeting - 1,000 Guineas 2011

3.15 Newmarket

Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)

Winner £213,739

Pick: Moonlight Cloud (win) & Misty For Me (each/way)

Barefoot Lady: Came right away on debut despite needing plenty of stoking and achieved a lot more when winning at St Ledger festival next, doing job just as nicely, and not disgraced when third and second in Group/Listed contests at backend of last year; Feisty winner of Nell Gwyn on return and while she merits place in field (supplemented) this much harder.

Blue Bunting: Shaped really well when runner-up on debut on the July Course behind Theyskens Theory (who has gone on to win a Group 3 and come third in the Fillies’ Mile); Pulled clear with subsequent winner when going one better following month and showed good attitude when winning listed contest here; Change in ground is question mark but is fairly priced.

Cape Dollar: Showed plenty of promise on her debut when third at Newmarket and took major steps forward with every run, improving from her Goodwood third (soft) to take the Rockfel on her final start; Disappointed on her comeback although she had valid excuses (seasonal debut, trip, track postion/draw) and harder to fancy.

Elshabakiya: One of race’s strongest form contenders going down by only a length to Maqaasid on debut, then Crying Lightening next time out; Only went down by a neck to Dubawi Gold on seasonal reappearance but well behind principals in Nell Gwyn and unlikely to feature.

Empowering: Made steady progression thoughought last year and kept on from where she left off when making all to land 1,000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown latest; Had plenty in had form a useful yardstick and vibes suggests she’s a good horse, so not without consideration.

Havant: Impressive maiden debut winner and bolted up in Oh So Sharp Stakes, travelling like winner from some way out and shooting clear of field; Both those starts on soft ground but doesn’t particularly shape as if she needs cut & sire has 14% winners/to runners ratio on good – to firm; Step up to mile needed and could be special.

Hooray: One of best two year olds of last season, winning Lowther, Sirenia & Cheveley Park Stakes with ease from the front; Has some of the best form claims if she trains on but bigger problem may be step up to a mile.

I Love Me: Made a mark as a potential group horse when coming right away to win big sales race on debut and unable to handle softer ground when fifth next time; Running down Cape Dollar at finish of Rockfel (saw lots of daylight) and can do better again this year although form of that race been let down since.

Immortal Verse: Impressive winner of debut conditions race at Deauville and best of rest behind key player Helleborine in Prix D’Amule; Given way that race has worked out, disappointing on return and likely to need further; Ground this fast a problem.

Laughing Lashes: Progressed with every run as a juvenile, showing plenty of talent when runner-up in maiden at the Curragh, Group 3 at Leopardstown, and in Moyglare; Did get better of Misty For Me in Debuante and entitled to be there at finish.

Make A Dance: Comfortable maiden winner here at the backend of last year, shaping as if she was very much a three – year old and set for much bigger and better things this year; Can and will do better but this a better race on faster ground and lot to prove.

Maqaasid: Showed immense promise on debut and realized that very quickly when winning Queen Mary Stakes in course record time, but failed to build on that when failing to stay in both the Lowther and Chevley Park Stakes; Stamina no problem when making good return (would have been better for a mile) under penalty and likely to show up well, win, lose or draw.

Memory: Seemed set to be champion juvenile for most of last season, beating quality Albany field and overcoming adverse passage to take Cherry Hinton Stakes with ease; Disappointment in Moygalre Stakes (never really in it) but if that run forgiven huge player and lot of strong signals form in form yard (stamina assured by trainer jockey).

Misty For Me: Hugely progressive through last year, stepping off maiden win to come second in Debutante and reversing form with Laughing Lashes to grab all the way win in Moyglare Stakes; Surpassed that when outbattling Helleborine to win Marcel Boussac and big player today with attitude and versatility to stand her in good stead.

Moonlight Cloud: Winner on debut at Deauville by two and a half lengths, and further confirmed her class when gliding into the lead to romp away with conditions event by six lengths; Thrown in at deep end when admirable effort to come fourth to Wotton Bassett in Prix Jean Luc and only getting better based on impressive win over Helleborine in Prix Imprudence, and can only step forward from that.

Nova Hawk: Steadily progressive as a juvenile, coming runner up in pair of listed races at backend of last year; Impressive winner of Prix La Camargo but that form needs improving on and has to show she handles quicker ground.

Show Rainbow: Took four tries to break duck last year, having seemingly ‘spurted’ two chances before coming right away from field on heavy in October; Ran a good race in Nell Gwyn but the winner (Barefoot Lady) & third (Maqaasaid) were going away at the finish and promise to be better over today’s trip of a mile.

The Shrew: Decent juvenile (won and second once, disappointed final run) and ready winner of a 1m AW handicap last month and can go on again form that, but not in this company.

Together: One of most consistent fillies of last year, following Moyglare fourth with Fillies Mile second; Would have won sales race here but for hanging and unable to cope with tight track in Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf; Disappointed on face of it in seasonal return, and while drop back to a mile and clearer run ought to suit (will be fitter now as well), hasn’t got the finish in her for a classic.

VERDICT: Many have expressed concerns over the ground for Havant but a mile on this surface promises to suit her. The result of the 2,000 Guineas yesterday proved how important being race – fit is in these events and MOONLIGHT CLOUD, so promising when fourth behind the top colts in the Prix Jean Luc and so impressive when putting away Helleborine in the Prix Imprudence, can take the biggest step of all and land what looks like a cracking renewal. Marcel Boussac/Moyglare winner Misty For Me is feared most, and looks a value each/way alternative to confirm her superiority over Laughing Lashes, and Memory, who is much better than she showed at the Curragh but still short for one that was so well beaten.  Hooray has some of the best form but how she’ll do over a mile in a much better race remains to be seen. I Love Me is best of the remainder. 

Newmarket Guineas Meeting - 2,000 Guineas 2011

3.10 Newmarket

Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £198,695

Pick: Pathfork (win)

Broox: Quickly made up into very smart colt after promising debut, winning 2 races at Chantilly very easily before a good second in the Prix Papin; Continued to hold his form at sprint distances for the rest of the year (forgiven below par form on last run) but this trip asks questions of him.

Casamento: Wasn't extended when making all in a 7f Tipperary maiden and took off from that, pushing Pathfork all the way in the National before winning the Beresford and National Stakes in style of a serious prospect; Should train on and while stable move is seen as a major grey area this particular arm of Godolphin has proven to be very adept.

Dubawi Gold: Didn’t look up to competing with the best on a number of occasions last season but has impressed with style of his two wins this season, cutting down decent field and then putting race to be a furlong out, both in Listed company at Lingfield (7f); This a whole different test for him and will do well to be placing.

Frankel: Very highly regarded colt who made serious impression when winning better-than-average maiden in style at Newmarket on debut ; Easy demolition of 2 rivals in Doncaster conditions event was somehow surpassed by a contemptuously easy win in Royal Lodge Stakes; Two main rivals didn’t show up but still cemented his claims as a Champion two – year old in Dewhurst, having subsequent Group 1 winner Roderic O’Connor well behind & cemented credentials with easy win in Greenham; Should be spot on for this and one to beat although this toughest test yet.

Fury: Won maiden in very taking style and surpassed that when taking sales race over C&D with relative ease (form very strong for the level, strongest race of its type run last season); Has a lot more on his plate again but probably well up to pattern class and has plenty of class.

 Happy Today: Was very taking fourth behind Biondetti (better than result says) and won well despite not handling Bath’s tight turns on second, last juvenile start; Continued where he left off when close second to Dordogne on reappearance but this much harder and form of that race now has major question marks over it.

Loving Spirit: Did it readily on debut and didn’t necessarily disappoint when beaten by Mantoba on last starts, although that form not been upheld since; More needed and while score to progress, doesn’t look good enough for a classic.

Native Khan: Made deep impression when winning maiden and Solario Stakes in taking style, and bettered that form in defeat when fourth in Racing Post Trophy; Made workmanlike debut when winning in Craven Stakes but will improve for run.

Pathfork: Created a big impression when landing a maiden at the Curragh with ease by four lengths ; Confirmed that impression when sweeping Glor Na Mara aside with ease in Futurity but even more impressive when holding off subsequent/previous Group 1 winners Pathfork and Zoffany in the National Stakes on testing ground; Form of that event looking rock solid and major chance here, with mile on this ground set to suit.

Rerouted: Big improver throughout his juvenile season, graduating from nursery handicaps to winning Tattersall Stakes and coming very respectable fourth behind Dewhurst second  (reopposing) Roderic O’Connor in French Group 1; Ran respectable race giving lumps of weight to useful prospect on seasonal debut but this tougher and likely pacemaker for same connections Frankel.

Roderic O’Connor: Took a major step forward with every run last season, beating very useful stablemate before making running to furlong out in Dewhurst Stakes, impressing with speed; Made easy work of field in Criterium International (despite veering) and suspicion is that he’s likely to have improved since Dewhurst second; That makes him a big player here.

Saamidd: Supplemented for this off the back of extremely impressive performance in Newbury maiden and announced himself as big player for top races when smashing two decent sorts in Champagne Stakes; So disappointing that he couldn’t show his true form in Dewhurst but clearly better than that and is well overpriced.

Slim Shadey: Held his form well over the majority of last season, coming second in a Listed contest at Newbury before a fourth in a big sales race; Even so, his best form is nowhere near good enough.

VERDICT: The superstar that could be Frankel sets and intimidating standard but not an insurmountable one and he has a fearsome rival in PATHFORK, who promised so much last season and has solid credentials for training on. Dewhurst second Roderic’ O’Connor has clearly improved since then based on his Criterium International win and is a big threat, while the Godolphin pair Casamento and Saamidd would be set for huge runs if their fitness & progression could be taken on trust. Of the two, Casamento is preferred. 

Prix Ganay 2011

2.45 Longchamp

Prix Ganay - Prix Air Mauritius (Group 1) (4yo+) (Turf) (4yo+) Winner £147,776

Good 1m2f110y

Pick: Cape Blanco (win)

Cirrus Des Aigles: Enjoyed his usual consistent campaign in France last year (won Group 2 here) before then seeking Group 1  glory in Asia (without success); Made a good reappearance when just behind Polytechnichen but this much harder.

Planteur: Was one of best three year olds last season, winning Group 2 before making frame in Prix Du Jockey Club, Grand Prix De Paris & Prix Niel; Not up to the task in Arc/Hong Kong Cup but serious performance when disposing of decent field with contemptuous ease on reappearance and will take some beating.

Pouvoir Absolut:  Pacemaker for Planteur.

Ley Hunter: Interesting/Progressive individual; never been out of the first two in six outings; finished last year with a Listed victory at Deauville and stepped forward when trying to catch Planteur from behind here latest; Has a future ahead of him but this asking a lot.

Silver Pond: Three from three last year, impressive winner of Prix Hocquart on last start; Made a highly promising comeback in the Group 3 Prix Exbury at Saint-Cloud but well beaten by Planteur and Ley Hunter and bigger days for him.

Cape Blanco: Built on unbeaten juvenile season with thoroughly progressive campaign as a 3 year old, beating Workforce in Dante and then when second in King George, not to mention landing Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes, trashing high class field; Couldn’t handle the soft ground in the Arc but that effort forgiven and major player here on creditable fourth in farcically slowly run Dubai World Cup latest; Promises to go well.

Sarafina: Created deep impression on maiden and made seamless transition to top level with a Group 1 double, winning the Prix Saint Alary and French Oaks with ease and class; Ran taking trial for the Arc when third in the Vermille but outdid herself to come third in big race when nearly brought down by Midas Touch, back to one but last before running on again during the final furlong and a half; Could go onto big things this year.

VERDICT: A classy renewal of the Prix Ganay. Planteur turned many heads with a commanding win last month although he’s going to have to go some to beat Arc third Sarafina and Irish Champion Stakes winner CAPE BLANCO, who did so well last season and retains all ability based on his third in a farcically slowly run Dubai World Cup latest. He has valid excuses for unplaced efforts on two other trips here. 

Newmarket Guineas Meeting - Jockey Club Stakes 2011

2.30 Newmarket

Qipco Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £45,416

Pick: Laaheb (win)

Indian Days: Unable to make mark in pair of Group 1 events (albeit well – contested ones) after winning a Group 2 in Turkey last year but continued progression when landing Group 3 under penalty at Newbury latest; This just as hard under penalty but race – fitness might improve him just a little.

Campanologist: Consistent performer who reached peak last season with consecutive Group One wins in Germany in the Von Lotto and Pokal in July and August respectively; Third to Dangerous Midge in September reads well and forgiven Melbourne Cup flop at the backend of last season; Capable of going close.

Laaheb: Has been very consistent and progressive for past two season and competed ground three double when getting better of long fight with Whispering Gallery in Cumberland Lodge Stakes; Last seen posting career – best in Dubai when fourth in Sheema Classic behind Rewilding; That form sets standard and should take the beating.

Monitor Closely: Well behind Campanologist in Arc Trial last September and 10 lengths behind Laaheb in Cumberland Lodge Stakes; Pulled too hard on return to feature in smaller race than this and not fancied.

Native Ruler: Considered  good enough to run in Dante and King Edwards Stakes two years ago, and shaped as if a fair horse when  third to Prince Siegfred; Positive sign that he’s been brought back but surely it’s fanciful to think he can win after 673 day layoff.

Dandino: Took major handicap double at Derby and Royal Ascot meetings before close Group 3 third in Gordon Stakes (form worked out); Flop in St Ledger but noteworthy run in Japan Cup, coming only eight lengths behind top class opposition; Impressive return (although it must be said that he did what was expected of him) and big player as he bids for first group win.

VERDICT: Bold bids can probably be expected from Indian Days & Dandino but LAAHEB, who was so progressive throughout last season, can take this following on from a career best effort in Dubai last time. 

Newmarket Guineas Meeting - Palace House Stakes 2011

3.45 Newmarket

Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus)

Winner £28,385

Pick: Astrophysical Jet (win)

Astrophysical Jet: Drop back to this trip has been the making of her, realizing belated promise shown when fairly bolting up under heavy weight in Newmarket handicap before good third in King George Stakes; easy wins in Flying Five Stakes & Newbury Group three mark her down as top prospect for this season and one of main players here.

Borderlescott: Loveable veteran who outdid himself last season, coming third in the King’s Stand and winning a Group two in the Process; Has every chance if he’s still got ability at his age although that has to be doubted just a little now.

Evens And Odds: Winner of the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood but not won since until taking 6 furlongs conditions contest at Thirsk; Well beaten on forays into Group company and lot of ground to make up.

Group Therapy: Improved a ton for joining the Noseda yard (now with David Barron), fairly bolting up in conditions race at Beverley before coming a close second to Triple Aspect at Sandown (decent event) and career best when second in Group two (decent efforts afterwards); Can be expected to go close for sponsors today.

Iver Bridge Lad: Close enough second to Jimmy Styles in big sprint at Doncaster and done well in picking up minor events recently either side of that; Should run well without winning this today again after close second in poorer event here last time.

Johnny Mudball: Looked as if he could make a group class sprinter when tonking his field at Newcastle and retained all that ability despite not gaining that big handicap win (6 furlongs cannot have been a help to him on either occasion); Drop back will be a help but this a good renewal and has a poor record fresh (flopped on comeback at this meeting last year).

Mister Hughie: Began to make up into a very useful sprinter last season, fourth in Group two before winning Listed event; Failed to hold form since though and has more questions than most to answer.

Prohibit: Has continued progression throughout winter in Dubai, taking valuable event by a head before respectable fifth in high class Al Quoz sprint; Should be spot on for big run here.

Rain Delayed: Looked like he was on his best form when second to a highly regarded horse at Newbury (thought of as Group class by many, including trainer) latest but this harder and will do well to get placed.

Secret Asset: Made only one foray into Group company (third at Newbury last year) and sixth in Stewards Cup afterwards; Not really progressed form that and although decent efforts the last twice, will likely get taken off his feet.

Sole Power: Considered for this on one run & one run only (not forgetting he was fourth in this last year) which is his Nunthrope win; Should be better for comeback and that form gives him beating of others here but flattered by that on all evidence.

Tangerine Trees: Continued his ascent up the sprinting ranks by making all to win Rous Stakes here when last seen & can go on this year but form of that win suspect and had only a head in hand; This far tougher.

Breathless Kiss: Has it all to be doing here based on lacklustre run last time.

Lisselan Diva: Won handicaps at Deauville and Fontainebleau last year and minor event at latter track on return; That suggests she has a lot of ground to make up and conditions underfoot today not going to suit her either.

Artic Feeling: Made winning debut at Southwell in March and proved most consistent since but never really up to pattern company, must train on, and has a lot to prove as a three year old.

VERDICT: Sole Power’s Nunthrope win flatters him and despite him having his best conditions today, he’s passed over.  A bold bid can be expected from the sponsors’ Group Therapy, but the upwardly mobile ASTROPHYSICAL JET looked as if she’d make a high class sprinter this year and she’s taken to confirm that promise. Borderlescott & Prohibit make most appeal of the others, with Johnny Mudball’s fitness a concern. 

Newmarket Guineas Meeting - Newmarket Stakes 2011

4.55 Newmarket

Makfi Newmarket Stakes (Listed) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £22,708

Pick: Ocean War (win)

Cai Shen: 2 from three as a juvenile when taking a maiden and novice stake with plenty in hand on both occasions, and same story when enterprisingly ridden to land Newbury Conditions Stakes on reappearance.

Canna: Made a decent debut and built on that when second at Doncaster on seasonal reappearance, but proved that he wasn’t up to Group class when last but one in Classic trial and this probably no easier.

Discoteca: Behind two decent horses in Masked Marvel and Chain Lightening (form of his second race has worked out very well indeed); Did win on reappearance but that form already being let down and this much more difficult.

Hamlool: Looked like a sure-fire winner waiting to happen on only juvenile start and made Dubawi Gold pull all the stops out on latest start, looking as if he’d have won over today’s trip; Will take the beating.

Nambian: Shaped as if this trip would suit when third in a 1m Nursery at Doncaster (good) and confirmed that impression when fourth despite not getting a run in sales race last time; Form been boosted since so given major chance.

Ocean War: Shaped well when fifth in Sandown maiden on debut last July; Impressed when turning that promise into smooth success on seasonal reappearance at Craven Meeting; More to come and can go close.

Treasury Devil:  very impressive in 2 smooth wins as a two year old and forgiven his poor run in Prix Jean Luc on Arc Day (hampered); Slightly disappointing on reappearance in Esher Cup, even though he’s likely to enjoy step up in trip and should come on for the run; Has a chance today but race has come awfully soon.

VERDICT: Despite the contrasting conditions it’s very hard to forgive Treasury Devil a rather limp Esher Cup effort, and this race comes awfully soon after that. Hamlool & Nambian have the highest rated form claims but OCEAN WAR may prove better than all of them today and is taken to build on a highly promising win at the Craven meeting. 

El Clasico 2 (Champions League, First Leg) - Real Madrid v Barcelona

Football doesn’t get much bigger than this. The biggest club Derby in world football not only with all of the kudos of a victory over your enteral rivals, but the prize of a chance to win the world’s biggest Club

After the 1-1 draw in La Liga and the extra-time win for Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey final Jose Mourinho's team take on Barcelona for the third time in two weeks on Wednesday. The two recent meetings between the sides underlined how little there is to choose between them and it’s still largely the same tonight.

Madrid, so impressive when tonking Valencia 6-3 at the Mestalla – The scoreline flatters the hosts - can only come here in the best of spirits. Gonzalo Higuain scored a hat-trick and Kaka bagged a brace in that game and it only further underlines the strength of their squad

They’ve more than held their own in the first two games and while they are seen by many as a typical Mourinho side after they held Barcelona off (in relative comfort apart from the goal, it must be said) they created plenty of their own chances and the same was true of the last meeting between the two sides at the Bernabeu.

Mourinho has already proven that he can shape a side to outmanoeuvre Barcelona, when taking Inter to a semi – final triumph in this competition last year and many would claim that Real Madrid are a far superior side.

Not only that, but home advantage is a huge thing for Madrid. Real Madrid have a flawless home record in the Champions League this season. They have won all five games so far, scoring 15 times in the process and are yet to concede a goal at the Bernabeu. To add more credibility to that, Barcelona

Barcelona, with the title safely in the bag (eight points clear with head – to head advantage and only 5 games left to go) were able to ring the changes and still enjoy a 2-0 cruise against Osasuna last week and they could have easily won the Copa Del Rey & the League meetings – The decisions that went against them were marginal calls.

Even so, in Clasico terms, things have changed a lot since that 5-0 thrashing given out at the Camp Nou. Then the difference was there for the world to see but little more than the odd goal separates them and it’s likely that a referring call could also prove the difference here – Those with long memories will recall Barcelona having a goal disallowed in the final moments of the second leg.

For those wanting to back the Catalans (at a very fair price) it should be noted that only three sides have won Champions League games at this stage and Barcelona have only won two away games in the Champions League this year.

TEAM NEWS

Real Madrid: Apart from the suspension of Ricardo Carvalho, it’s all good news for Los Blancos. The return of Kaka and Gonzalo Higuain, who scored five of the six goals against Valencia on Saturday, is massive boost, although it’s expected that Mourinho will stick largely by the players who provided so much success in the Copa del Rey final. Raul Albiol, who gave Barcelona their goal in the League draw, may well reappear.

Barcelona: Defence has never been the strong point of Barcelona but there has to be concerns about the loss of Adriano, who is out for rest of the season, Gabriel Milito, who had to be substituted on Saturday after picking up a calf strain, Maxwell who played the ninety minutes in spite of suffering with a groin strain while Carles Puyol is still struggling with a hamstring injury. Iniesta coming back could make all the difference however.

VERDICT

This page is a big fan of both teams and while I’m of the view that Barcelona could easily have won both games so far, Real Madrid have looked quite at ease for large parts of the two ties. Chances could be at a premium if Madrid’s only response to Barcelona’s possession is to run the ball long from out back and that makes the already tempting draw a huge runner. There was never much between the two teams anyway and it could be all square after 90 minutes again. 

Advice 

2 pts Draw (11/5 Sportingbet) 

Schalke 04 v Manchester United - Preview

Schalke are once again revelling in their Champions League underdog role as they prepare to take on Manchester United, winners three years ago and finalists since, in their semi – final first leg at the Veltins arena.

And according to Schalke’s home record, there’s a lot for Manchester United to be very wary of. The Germans have dazzled in Europe by overcoming the likes of Lyon, Benfica and Valencia, not forgetting their memorable 7-3 aggregate success over defending champions Inter Milan over the last two legs.

But their form in Germany has been little better than shocking, leaving them 29 points adrift of leaders Borussia Dortmund in 10th place – Indeed they’re closer to the relegation zone than the title and many had fears for them being dragged into a battle for the drop earlier on in the season.

Not only that but more worryingly, are five Champions League games - home and away - without a clean sheet, while United have kept clean sheets in 5/5 Champions League away games this season.

Thanks to the incompetency of perennial challengers Arsenal of recent games, and the poor mid-season form of Chelsea, the title is all but Manchester United’s following a hard fought 1-0 win over Everton. The FA Cup blip against Manchester City already seems a distant memory for Sir Alex Ferguson's side, who are two wins away from the title.

                                                                                                               

Dimitar Berbatov failed to make the flight to Germany, but given the form that Javier Hernandez is in, that’s not likely to worry too many people. The magical Mexican is 13/2 to score first with Victor Chandler, while his team – mate and headline grabber Wayne Rooney can celebrate joining the Twitter Club of famous footballers with a goal here. He’s 5’s to score anytime.

TEAM NEWS 

MANCHESTER UNITED - Man United are without Dimitar Berbatov, who didn't travel due to a groin strain. Nemanja Vidic, Patrice Evra, Michael Carrick and Ji-Sung Park were rested for the game against Everton, they are both expected to return to the side.

SCHALKE -  Defender Benedikt Howes is doubtful after picking up an abdominal tear in the 1-0 loss on Sunday. Not only that, but Klaas - Jan Hunteelaar, Mario Gavranovic &  Peer Kluge are all absent.   


VERDICT

Schalke have been on a magnificent run of form in the Champions League this year but this will be their toughest test so far and Manchester United may be too good. The Red Devils have kept 5 clean sheets in Champions League away games this season while Schalke have let in 9 goals in this year’s competition. 

Advice 

2 pts Manchester United (7/5 William Hill) 

1 pt Draw - Manchester United (9/2 SkyBet)

Today's Pointers - Irish Grand National (25th April 2011)

Easter Monday racing is usually remembered for the flood of meetings that take place in the UK and Ireland, but to start let’s wake up a little early and enjoy the feat of talent gunning for the Sha Tin Champions Mile( 9.35am BST 'as live' on ATR).

Presvis is the favourite following on from his Dubai Duty Free last win last month but his old up style will always make him vulnerable and there’s no guarantee of a strong pace here, which could make things very tough for him here, especially over the mile, so at 100/30 there’s better place to look.

Able One is versatile on both ground and tactics, but he ran as if something was up (having been withdrawn at the start in the Hong Kong Mile) on his sprint prep and it may take some time for his to come back to his best here in what’s a very strong renewal.  

Lucky Nine hasn’t been seen since finishing a close third to Beauty Flash over seven furlongs when last seen, but he would have caught the winner that day over today’s trip, and he just didn’t stay the 9 furlongs of the Hong Kong Classic Cup when three wide the whole trip and pulling hard for the first third of the race until he got some cover round the bend (and he was still restrained).  To underline the form of that effort, Xtension (who reopposes today) was back in fourth and the winner went onto win the Hong Kong Derby. In his last run before winning a barrier trial, he failed to catch Beauty Flash (over seven furlongs in the Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup) but would have won both times over today’s trip and he rates the value bet back at a mile.

The winner that day, Beauty Flash, is a horse to fear especially if getting it all his own way, but he’s such a specific horse, which was underlined when he couldn’t keep up his modest gallop in the Duty Free. Sunny King would be my idea of the biggest threat and is a huge price at 16’s with Coral, but his running style (has held up, came wide, last three starts) suggests that he’s depend on strong fractions, while Lucky Nine will be suited by a slow gallop.

Musir’s efforts are all best ignored but this is a step up in class for him and while he’d be OK off a slow gallop, there are still questions about how good he is and Royal Bench, while possibly unlucky of late, may suffer similar traffic problems.

Over to Ireland and the Grade 2 Keelings Irish Strawberry Hurdle (2.45) to kick off proceeding s at Fairyhouse, where Volder La Vedette’s got a good chance to land another Graded win. Colm Murphy’s mare has performed with credit in top company this year, and did things pretty much on the bridle when landing the Boyne Hurdle. Good ground will suit and she can confirm the form with  Donnas Palm, Stonemaster and Son Amix. The one I’d pinpoint as the biggest threat would have to be Balckstairmountain. Clearly not right on his seasonal reappearance, he was then narrowly denied by Rick when 4-5 favourite for a Punchestown 2m4f conditions event (heavy) in January when he would have won but for a misjudgement from his jockey or a last flight blunder. Coming here off the back of a very creditable seventh in the County Hurdle, he looks he the main danger with good ground on his side.

The Rathbarry & Glenview Studs Novice Hurdle (3.45) is often won by a horse who ran in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham, and Rathlin, who was having only his fourth run under Rules when finishing sixth in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last month, can do so again. He jumped beautifully for such an inexperienced horse in the race and was right there with the best of them before fading up the hill. The top 5 from the contest look like serious horses and he’s taken to win here.  Dare To Doubt will be dangerous if allowed an easy lead on this ground, but we saw what happened when the forcing tactics were overdone with her last time and she’s no certainty to confirm the form with Prima Vista, who was unlucky in defeat when she won as Naas and is now 5lbs better off. I should also throw in a good word for Laughing Boy, who could make a useful sort in time but is likely to need this, and Il Fenomeno, a Group 3 winner on the flat who’s got promise in abundance but needs to be watched today, having lost his form when last seen on the level.

The Irish Grand National (4.55) is run on good ground but like many of the extreme distance chases this year have shown, that can sometimes only increase the need for stamina and I still know what I want, which is a sure footed jumper who’s sure to stay and can fight in a finish. 

Step forward Western Charmer, who hasn’t hacked it in the top Irish Chases this season but was only beaten a couple of lengths by Western Charmer at Christmas and has bumped into multiple Graded winner, namely owned by the Gigginstown House Stud.  He’s the type who just gallops and gallops and gallops and has a top jock for that type in Andrew Lynch, who’s just the sort to keep him going.

Favourite Beautiful Sound has more negatives than positives for me. Despite a good win on his rules debut, there’s still no explaining for his poor effort the last time he ran in a big Irish Handicap in the Paddy Power (although he may have bounced) and while he was one of the most eye-catching runners at Cheltenham, he jumped himself into that position with early mistakes and hung badly up the run in, and even passing all that, he still has to get in anyway.

JP McManus has six, & it makes sense to use one of his as a saver and while many see it as a massive pointer that Quantitiveasing is the pick of AP McCoy, there are some doubts about his chances here. For all he’s looked a stayer in most of his runs (and should be happy stepped up in trip, being a half – brother to Asian Maze) – He got well outpointed when beaten in the Centenary Handicap Chase and his stamina’s going to be stretched for a long way here.

Synchronised has been largely forgotten following a well beaten third in the Midlands National but he’ll stay all day and should get round – That gets him onto the shortlist & the only thing he’d be wanting is ease in the ground.

The one of the quintet that I like is Sunnyhilboy, partly because he’s one of the classiest horses in the field. He was seventh in a strong renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and then again when third in the December Gold Cup at Christmas. He needs to jump cleanly to be in with a chance but he’s got the class to do so. Pricewise has put him up but there’s still mileage in his price.

Or Noir De Somoza is a fascinating horse. He’s always had so much class, and for all he seems to need the mud, he’s ridden by a very promising young jockey in Connor O’Farell. If he’s as good the Pipe yard think he is, he could be set for a big run and his stamina won’t be stretched as far as at Aintree if over his fall in the National.

I can’t have Prince Erik at the prices. He seems to be priced up on his trainer and he should stay but there are others to look at, while Some Target was thrashed when 5^th in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and Shakerville will most likely need this way too.

The only other horse that makes real appeal today is Torphicen in the Novices Handicap Chase (5.30) & while he’s not going to be an actual tip of sorts, he seems to have a massive calls edge on the field here and could be too good. I wouldn’t put anyone off him at the price of 6/1. 

Advice 


2 pts win Lucky Nine, 9.35 Sha Tin (8/1 Coral)


1 pt win Voler La Vedette, 2.35 Fairyhouse (2/1 Stan James)


3 pts win Rathlin, 3.45 Fairyhouse (6/4 Boylesports) 


1 pt each/way Western Charmer, 4.55 Fairyhouse (20/1 Boylesports)


1 pt each/way Sunnyhillboy, 4.55 Fairyhouse (12/1 Bet365)

Valencia v Real Madrid - Preview

Just three days after overcoming Arch – rivals Barcelona to win the Copa Del Rey, Real Madrid can put the icing on the cake of a nearly perfect week by beating Valencia at the Mestalla.

After a hard fought draw in the second Clasico (of the season) at the Bernabeu, Los Galacticos finally ended their trophy drought by beating FC Barcelona 1-0 courtesy of Cristiano Ronaldo in a tense and thrilling battle which was dominated by the Catalans in possession for the large part of normal time.

For the large part of the final, Madrid were truly excellent in defence. They held their lines and defended their area brilliantly when pushed by Barcelona, and although they did get a lucky break (Pedro’s harshly ruled out offside goal) they were value for their win.

Jose’s men have been priced generously because of the fact that Valencia are third but there’s a fourteen points between them from the same number of games played, while their inconsistency is still very much there.

Admittedly Los Che have won their last three on the bounce – including a 5-0 crushing of Villarreal – bit they had lost their last three before that, including a collapse against Schalke in the Champions League.

This has been a nearly perfect week for Real Madrid

There’s also a startling difference in the goals scored for Real. Madrid have scored 73  goals to Valencia’s 54, but the real eye opener is the defensive quality of the two teams – Valencia have let in 35 goals, while Madrid have let in only 23 all season in La Liga.

Many will point to the fact that Valencia have home advantage but that hasn’t stopped Madrid in the past - have an excellent recent record when travelling to the Mestalla, having lost only one of their last six outings at the venue – Including their last three.

The fact that Madrid have a Champions League Semi – Final next week isn’t of any consequence here, as circumstances dictate that they should be able to field a strong side. Carvalho is suspended for the CL semifinal first leg so is an almost certain starter, and the same should go for Raul Albiol after missing the Copa final.

The likes of Ozil, Kaka and Benzema could also feature, along with Gonzalo Higuaín and Lassana Diarra, who have a point to prove to the manager here.

Advice

3 pts Real Madrid (11/5 Stan James) 

bet365.com Hurdle 2011

1.30 Sandown

bet365.com Hurdle (Listed) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £9,122

Pick: Clerk’s Choice (win)

Clerk’s Choice: Has been a complete revelation in winning four out of five over hurdles but nothing even close to how impressive he was at Cheltenham’s showcase meeting, beating Grade 1 winner Barizan and promising Royal Mix by 21 lengths (Barizan 4 further back); Was put up to rating of 162 for that so very disappointing that he couldn’t cope with softer ground at Haydock; largely redeemed himself in meantime with fourth in International & Sixth in Champion Hurdles.

Sancutaire: Hasn’t quite delivered on promise shown as a juvenile (won Fred Winter hurdle; Third in Aintree G1) but made amends for poor season when winning Scottish Champion Hurdle under beautifully judged ride, and likely to make a bold bid to double up.

The Jisgsaw Man: Not out of first three for majority of season (won once at Aintree, twice at Worcester) before finishing unplaced in big field handicap hurdle at Newton Abbot last time; This is much harder.

Dorabelle: Bumper winner was progressing fast over hurdles (3 from 4 in Novice events before kast two runs); But will struggle here based on last two poor efforts.

VERDICT: Sancutaire is going to be popular but he did run only just last week and CLERK’S CHOICE is not going to be an easy horse to beat. 

bet365 Mile (Group 2) 2011

3.45 Sandown

bet365 Mile (Group 2) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £45,416

Pick: Dick Turpin (win)

Cityscape: Signed off with wins in Listed and Group 3 company, a nine length win in the Joel Stakes possibly exaggerated by soft ground; Still has more to come this season, although this company tougher than last assignment.

Dick Turpin: Revelation last year, winning Greenham on reappearance before finishing runner – up in English Guineas, French Guineas, and St James’s Palace before running away with Prix Jean Prat (forgiven disappointment in strong renewal of Juddmonte International); Career best when just behind Goldikova in Foret and can be expected to make bold show on seasonal reappearance.

Dream Eater: Performed admirably in face of tough tasks last season and only beaten a head in Turkish Group 2 (several other smart efforts); Generally needs a run first time out and this as tough a contest as he could appear in.

Highland Knight: Performed with credit in tough handicaps last year and while he can’t have been helped by being drawn on wrong side in Spring Mile, was never in contention (sixth of 12 on side); Out of depth.

Music Show: Tough to find more consistent filly, and gained deserved Group 1 success in lucrative campaign last year; Should do well again as a four year old, and fact she won on reappearance last year bodes well for bold show here.

VERDICT: A deep renewal with plenty of potentially brilliant older horses, and one that may be dominate by two horses who won on their reappearances last season in Music Show and DICK TURPIN, with the stable record of Richard Hannon (has won the last three runnings) getting the latter the vote. 

bet365.com Celebration Chase 2011

2.35 Sandown

bet365.com Celebration Chase (Grade 2) (Class 1)  (5YO plus)

Winner £28,505

Pick: Tataniano (win)

Tataniano: Won three out of four last season over fences, his three wins coming by an aggregate of 51 lengths & fancied for Champion Chase when romping home with Maghull Chase by 13 lengths; Satisfactory reappearance at beginning of season before injury and major chance here now recovery.

Chaininbar: Had a good season last year, with a wide margin win at this Festival by 15 lengths in 2 mile handicap chase and also a win at Newbury (both valuable events); Has a fussy side though, and refused to race on both occasions at big spring festivals last twice, so cannot be fancied and in any case, not good enough.

Cornas: Has had a very good season this year, winning Grade 3 on reappearance before two good runs in decent handicaps; Finally won again at Sandown few starts ago in good race for the grade but outclassed in Game Spirit/Champion Chase and outclassed here.

French Opera: Had an incredible season last year, winning 5 out of his 6 races and coming desperately close second in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival (compensated with Grade 2 afterwards); Ran a shocker on seasonal reappearance but put that right when bolting up in Game Spirit Chase; Drop back to this trip will suit, although he has to improve on form so far this season.

Oiseau De Nuit: Third in this race last year and in same form again, arguably unlucky to lose at Aintree after nearly unseating his rider at second fence, and was impressive winner of the Grand Annual Chase at Cheltenham Festival; Can go well again.

Russian Flag: Proved up was indeed up to a better mark (134) but maybe not better company when winning Wincanton handicap chase last time (pulled up in Greatwood Gold Cup); Not fancied.

VERDICT: With the fast ground he craves, TATANIANO is a confident choice to give Paul Nicholls his fifth Celebration Chase since 2001. 

bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes 2011

4.20 Sandown

bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1)  (4YO plus)

Winner £28,385

Pick: Viscount Nelson (win)

Asfare: Unlucky not to win on AW debut last season, but made up for that by going unbeaten, for the rest of the year, including a hard fought win at Royal Ascot; Beat subsequent Group 2 winner Wigmore Hall on both occasions, and top notch prospect.

Black Spirit: Showed plenty of ability when finished in the frame in Group races overseas (namely France) but struggled towards ends of season and has a tough task on comeback (didn’t run well when fresh last year).

Kings Gambit: Really progressive through middle part of last season, coming second at Royal Ascot then big handicap/Group 3; Not found a win since, and while not for lack of trying, does seem vulnerable to more progressive sort.

Shamali: Beginning to deliver on promise of two seasons ago, winning listed contest on AW in game fashion; As pleasing as that must have been (will improve) this a far tougher race back on turf.

Viscount Nelson: Improved with time last year, finishing close up in the Irish Guineas and Prix Ju Jcokey Club before almost catching Twice Over in the Eclipse Stakes over this C&D; Could progress more this season and more than suitable race for him here.

Nouriya: Was in some fine form last year, deifying a penalty to bring up her hat-trick and record a Listed double in the John Musker Fillies' Stakes; Only seventh in Prix L’Opera at back end of last year but better can be expected in four year old season.

VERDICT: A good race and one that may turn into a match between Asfare, Nourya and VISCOUNT NELSON, who came so close to catching Twice Over in the Coral Eclipse when last seen. 

Bet365 Gold Cup 2011

These days, it’s not too easy to pin down the type of horse that wins the Bet365 Gold Cup (3.10 Sandown) although there is a strong weight trend, that being eight of the last 10 winners having carried less than 11 stone.

The two favourites this year are Baby Run and Balthazar King, but I feel they can both be taken on for largely the same reason; They’ve had a thundering hard race in the space of less than two weeks, and Baby Run’s came after going head to head with the entire Foxhunter’s field for nearly two circuits before coming down. This is a tough test as it is, without having to get over a tough race previously, and we don’t know how good his Hunter Chasing form actually is, despite the fact he’s unexposed in ahandicap.

Balthazar King comes from the right yard to land this prize (Phillip Hobbs has had 2 winners and 6 placed horses from just 13 runners) but his form needs improving on and better novices have come up short in top handicap company this season.  For the same reason, I can also lost Triggerman, who’s had a hard recent race, despite it being an impressive win.

Amigayle makes a lot of appeal at the head of the market. A really likeable mare who got right back to her best when runner-up to in the Byrne Group Plate at last month's Cheltenham Festival, she should improve plenty for the trip and has a good chance here over a trip she should like. She was second but is now first choice thanks to the removal of West End Rocker at the last Declaration Stage, and while that's not ideal, she'll proabaly be making a bold bid on conditions that should suit.

Amigayle - May be back to something like her best

The freshness might be out of Poker De Sivola having gone to the 11th in the Scottish National, while Maktu just hasn’t improved as expected this season from the turn of the year for a trip. Gentle Ranger finds it too hard to find his best, while Means Dandy scores strongly on the trends and is of interest, but his weak finishing is a real worry. Exmoor Ranger’s just too high in the weights. One that took my eye majorly was Iconoclast, who’s unebaten in two this season and seems really progressive, but his best form has come with ease in the ground and the modest record of 10 year olds (nine and ten year olds have accounted for roughly 40% of all the runners yet only around 10% of all placed horses) is just enough to put me off him. The Last Derby is also given similar respect (coming here fresher than most) & Last year’s winner Church Island has too much weight to carry now.

Advice

1 pt each/way Amigayle (8/1 Boylesports) 

Premiership - Saturday 22nd April 2011 (All times 3PM unless stated)

Manchester United (5/11) v Everton (7/1) (12.45 PM, SS2)

Manchester United’s charge for a treble has been stopped and they we held at Newcastle on Tuesday, but that was away from Old Trafford and back where they’re happiest they should prove too strong for Everton, who often fail to back up good performances week on week.

Advice: 1 pt Manchester United -0.5 on 1^st Half Asian H’Cap (evs Bet365)

Aston Villa (5/6) v Stoke (7/2)

Villa are strong favourites but they may have been flattered by wins over Newcastle and West Ham sides who weren’t at their best and may struggle against Stoke, who have performed admirably against Tottenham and are on a high following their FA Cup romp at the weekend.

Advice: 1.5 pts Stoke – Draw Double Chance (20/21 Stan James)

Blackpool (2/1) v Newcastle (6/4)

The football that Blackpool have played has been amazing and it would really be quite a shame if they were to be relegated, but they may suffer a massive blow against Newcastle, who gave it their all against Manchester United earlier on in the week.

Advice: 1 pt Newcastle (6/4 Paddy Power)

Sunderland (23/20) v Wigan (3/1)

Sunderland are expected by many to get back to winning ways here but their current rut may really be a problem and Wigan, who are getting closer to safety with every positive result, won’t lie down at all here.

Advice: 2 pts Wigan +0.5 on 1st Half Asian H’Cap (5/6 VC Bet)

Tottenham (8/13) v West Brom (5/1)

West Brom disappointed in tame fashion after giving Chelsea a lot to think about and Tottenham, so good at home, should prove too strong for them. The gulf in class between the sides could tell early here with Tottenham having home advantage.

Advice: 0.5 pt Tottenham/Tottenham Double Result (6/4 Boylesports)

Wolves (8/5) v Fulham (15/8)

This game is very tightly matched as it is and it may just be that being at Molineux is enough for Wolves. They’ve beaten Man City, Chelsea and ended Manchester United’s unbeaten season here and with so much on the line, may up their game for the big occasions.

Advice: 1 pt Wolves (8/5 Bet365)

Chelsea (2/7) v West Ham (12/1) (5:30 PM, ESPN)

A trophyless season and Champions League exit has rendered a run of eight wins and 2 draws in in 11 games (Premiership) nearly useless but Chelsea should be able to put away West Ham with some ease. A -2 goal start might give you a run for your money.

Advice: 1 pt Chelsea -2 (13/8 Blue Sq) 

El Clasico 2 (Copa Del Rey Final) - Real Madrid v Barcelona

Barcelona all but wrapped up La Liga with a 1-1 draw against Real Madrid as two rivals drew in the first of four games they will play in just over two weeks, ending their best sequence of results against the nine-time European champions.

And here we are for the second of those games, and arguably the first one that really count, as the winner tonight will take the Copa Del Rey Trophy.

Barcelona could be seen by many as moral winners in that game, with a rather dubious late penalty for Christiano Ronaldo earning a late draw for the then hosts who did have quite a few strong chances.

Barcelona has plenty of possession, for all that they were given the ball by Real early on - at one point in the first half, Barcelona had 81% possession – Although they weren’t completely dominant and did nearly lose out early on.

Madrid are the second highest scorers in La Liga but many, notably legend Alferdo Di Stefano, weren’t exactly enthused about their approach to the game.

Mourinho's side sat back at the Bernabeu on Saturday in the hope of stealing a goal on the break, frustrating Barca enough to prevent his opposite number Pep Guardiola making it six wins from six games against Real.

Benching promising playmaker Mesut Ozil, Mourinho started centerback Pepe in midfield.  Paired with Xabi Alonso and Sami Khedira—two physically imposing players—Mourinho managed to turn a squad full of gifted attacking players into a parked airbus and much of the game will rest on whether Mourinho does the same tonight.

Barcelona have scored 9 goals in the last 5 Clasicos (8 of them to nil) and have a far superior Copa Del Rey record. In four cup final meetings against their eternal rivals, Barcelona have won three.

 Since last winning the trophy in 1993, the Bernabeu side have made the final only twice, losing out in 2002 and 2004 to Deportivo La Coruna (2-1) and Real Zaragoza (3-2 aet) respectively.

Bookmakers take this very view, laying 10/11 about Barcelona in 90 minutes which does seem on the short side given how close the game was in the Bernabeu and you’d be hard pushed to put anyone off 3/1 Real Madrid on that basis.

However, there may be more mileage in going for a tight game. There’s generally 10/11 about under 2.5 and also 13/10 about the draw at Half Time if you’re so inclined.

Even with their “disappointment” on Saturday I’m keen to get with Barcelona again here. They didn’t deserve to lose their lead late on Saturday and they can lift the first trophy of the Spanish season here. This game really could go the extra mile however, and maybe it’s best to spread the options around, so back Barcelona to win in extra time, the game to be won in extra time, and the first goal to come after 23 minutes, which is a generous offer from Paddy Power.

Advice

2 pts Barcelona to beat Real Madrid (10/11 Stan James)

2 pts First goal after 23 minutes (10/11 Paddy Power)

1 pt Barcelona to win in Extra time (10/1 Bet365)

1 pt Tie to be won in extra time (19/4 Sportingbet)

Chelsea v Birmingham - Preview

Chelsea are overwhelming favourites but may struggle at home to Birmingham tonight. The Blues  come into the game unbeaten in seven Premier League games but interspersed with that run are the two defeats to Manchester United that ended their Champions League hopes and while they were successful at the Hawthorns, that was not after they’d gone 1-0 down and Birmingham may provide more difficulties at Stamford Bridge.

Birmingham come into the game on a three game unbeaten run and seeking back to back wins for the second time this season – And that’s not a forgone possibility – and this fixture has a history of being tight, with 11 of the last 12 meetings having featured under 2.5 goals. With that in mind, maybe Birmingham are worth backing on the Asian Hanidcap with a large start.

Advice

2 pts Birmgingham +2 on Asian Handicap (3/4 Victor Chandler) 

Newcastle v Manchester United - Preview

Manchester United have been given a quick opportunity to atone for their Wembley disappointment at the weekend by playing Newcastle United but they may not have things all their own way on Tuesday night.

Newcastle do make fast starts at home, having the first goal against Chelsea and Spurs this year and also offer heavy resistance, having scored against Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City and Spurs at home this season.

Newcastle are still as unpredictable as ever - a 4-0 defeat at Stoke, a 4-1 win over Wolves and a 1-0 loss away at Aston Villa are there last three results – And their squad issues are a worry.

Skipper and top scorer Kevin Nolan serves a two-match ban,  Hatem Ben Arfa (broken leg) Alan Smith (ankle) and Dan Gosling (knee) and Leon Best (ankle) are all our for the rest of the season.

On the lighter side, Cheik Tiote and James Perch return from suspension for the hosts, and maybe Stephen Ireland could play almost three months after his arrival on loan from Aston Villa.

Even with Saturday’s poor defeat for United, Newcastle aren’t the recommendation - They have failed to win any of the previous 16 league encounters between the two clubs – Despite there being quotes of 9/2 around.

United had won 6 out of their last 6 before Saturday’s cup exploits, doing a double over Chelsea and winning at West Ham, and the Premiership may still be there given Arsenal’s glorious failure against Liverpool in the last minute, self – started by Emmauel Eboue – The gap’s now 6 points with no games in hand – May still be there.

Given the stats quoted above, maybe backing both teams to score may have more going for it than most. 69% of Newcastle's home games and 75% of Manchester United's away games this season have had over 2.5 while there have been 18 goals during the last four league matches – so there should be chances a plenty.

Admittedly that points to Over 2.5 (10/11 Hills) & 3.5 (2/1 Bwin) but given Newcastle’s strong starting performances in big games so far this season, and Manchester United’s class, I’d rather be with both sides scoring.

Advice

1 pt Both teams to score in Newcastle v Manchester United (10/11 Hills) 

Weekend Review & Today's racing - 18th April 2011

Well what a weekend that was and our hopes and dreams are still alive in the shape of Frankel after his Greenham win. Everyone’s nerves are surely more relaxed now, given the horse has confirmed he’s fit and well with a rather taking win in the end, although if we’re talking about win lost or draw then it was surely a draw. All the hopes and dreams of the fans and more notably the man who felt that £550,000 was best placed on him are still intact, but those who felt that he was beatable have still had their concerns ratified.

Frankel - Potentially brilliant but tendency to pull

Although he won easily in the end, his tendency to pull (understandable given the freshness and lack of pace in the race) was still there and it took him a full 4 furlongs to relax. There’ll be more pace on in the Guineas, although he’ll need to settle much better than that to win against better horses, and while everyone wants to see him win, I can’t be taking 1-2 about him now.

Speaking of the same trio, on the same day, World Domination bolted up in his maiden just a few hours later. As impressive as it was, the Derby is less than seven weeks away and he’s won a maiden in taking style on debut (albeit a maiden that should work out well) and he’s now shorter than the Racing Post Trophy 1-2. He seems to be this short on homework reputation and the fact that Frankel’s not a confirmed Derby starter, and while he could be anything I’d rather take reduced odds after a trial (he may go for the Newmarket Stakes on Guineas day) – There’s only 7 or so weeks until the Derby.

At Sunday, the most important pointer may have been towards the Gold Cup with the appearance of Fame and Glory at Navan in the Saval Beg stakes. Many were distinctly unimpressed but he (like all of the O’Brien runners, even this season) needed the race badly and cannot have been suited by a slow gallop early on (dropping to farcical scenes down the back straight). At one point at the top of straight he did travel like he’d make short work of it but he got there in the end and he did have a 7lbs Group 1 penalty – He got beaten in a similar contest last season before winning his next 4 on the trot, including two Group 1’s and it should be a case of onwards and upwards – 5’s for the Ascot Gold Cup is more than fair.

Siren’s Song got Oaks quotes - was cut to 20-1 (from 50) by Stan James for the Investec Oaks and by William Hill to 25-1 (from 40) -   after winning the Salsabil Stakes yesterday and can improve for that, but it might be best waiting for another run from her. I’m convinced that Fran Berry had a lot to do with the win. Speaking of the Oaks, it’s surprising to see Misty For Me still at 10/1. She had to show a lot of class to beat Helleborine in France on Arc day and she already goes on all types of ground.

Moving onto today’s racing, at Windsor I’ll take a chance on Wooden King in the Reading Post Handicap (6.50). He’s a front runner who won 4 of last 7 starts in handicaps last season, rising 15lbs in the process. He may well need the run but this really looks closer than the market suggest and although he might need it, so will many others and he’s worth an each/way poke at his price.

In the last (Download Trainer Magazine From App Store Handicap, 7.50) it may pay to take a chance on The Holyman, who’s a son of Footstepsinthesand who won his only at Lingfield in October and he’s the most unexposed horse in a tight race.

Advice

1 pt each/way Wooden King, 6.50 Windsor (18/1 Boylesports)

1 pt each/way The Holyman, 7.50 Windsor (9/1 Paddy Power)

El Clasico 1 (La Liga) - Real Madrid v Barcelona

You can never have too much of a good thing. That can apply to many things, but ask many football fans what they feel is a good thing and Real Madrid v Barcelona is more likely to be answered with a resounding yes than anything else, so the fact that we have 4 of them in the next month or so is something to be truly savoured.

Once again, as is the case for nearly all of the league games involving these two clubs this is the title decider. But over the 4 games, the seasons of two world giants will be decided. With the third game deciding a trophy in itself, and the other two legs making up a Champions League semi – final, this will be some epic.

Seeing as Madrid have home advantage, we’ll start there. One of the most consistent teams in world football, their few defeats have proven costly. They were workmanlike when defending a 4-0 lead (hardly the most taxing of tasks I’m sure you’ll agree) against Tottenham.

The four clashes give Real boss Jose Mourinho ample opportunity to avenge the shock of his first El Clasico - the 5-0 humiliation to Barca back in November. It generally pays to look at recent history in the El Clasico although I wouldn’t be reading the form of the latter named romp literally. True, Madrid got a good beating but the red – card of Sergio Ramos and the Nou Camp crowd may have had a big playing part.

In typical resilient style - a double over Spurs in the Champions League, with a league win at Athletic Bilbao sandwiched in between – Madrid are unbeaten since their loss at Sporting Gijon.  While they’ve won well enough on all three occasions (make note of the fact that they didn’t need to win on Wednesday) they’ve been workmanlike on the one league start.

As far as trophies go, everything looks a lot simpler for Barcelona. On an 11-match undefeated run - winning 10 - since losing to Arsenal in their Champions League last-16 first leg back in February, the Catalan giants may well seal another treble but they have their arch – rivals to negotiate here.

Barcelona can seal La Liga in the Bernabeu

They’ve been dominant in the last few meetings although things will be vastly different here. Their away record, while still impeccable, is fairly inferior to that of their record at Camp Nou. And they have scored more than once in only one of their last five away matches, although that’s easier to forgive when you see that they’ve played the likes of Shakhtar (not been beaten at home in any competition since October 2008 - a run of 55 matches), Europa League Semi – Finalists Villarreal, and Sevilla.

Another thing that must be touched upon is the speculation that both bosses may be tempted to put out weakened sides at the Bernabeu given Barca have an eight-point cushion in La Liga and the cup final four days later, which makes no sense and seems unlikely given that The Special One might still be able to save La Liga should he win here, while the Catalans have that all important momentum to fight for. And just in case you forgot, it’s El Clasico.

As ever with these games, score betting is widely popular and quotes of 8/13 and 4/6 are the only available (generally speaking) on overs but the oddsmakers are being a bit stingy by generally giving 11/10 or 6/5, so leave that aspect of things out.

Real are a best price of 9/5 to win this, which is fair given that they are on a good run of form, but I find it hard to ignore recent history or performances and Barcelona can settle La Liga once and for all by doing Real Madrid for the third successive season by winning El Clasico at the Bernabeu. Defeat here won’t be the end of the world for Madrid and a wide margin win isn’t likely but they’ve got class and may be able to win by pinning the midfield down.

Advice

3 pts Barcelona to beat Real Madrid (6/4 general)

FA Cup Semi - Final - Manchester City v Manchester United

You can’t beat El Clasico but the Manchester Derby’s no back – number and you’ll get few bigger stages for the two to clash than an FA Cup semi – final.

 Starting with City (given that they are the “home side”), as said nearly word – for – word on Monday, their record against other big clubs is poor. A bore – draw against United was followed by a 2-1 loss at Old Trafford, while they were convincingly brushed aside by Chelsea at the Bridge (overlooking the fact they beat them at Eastlands) and they failed to win against Arsenal, suffering a 3-0 defeat at home.  This would suggest that Roberto Mancini looking to avoid defeat rather than seeking a win against other giants has generally failed this year.

They also couldn’t have had a worse dress rehearsal then when a soundly beaten 3-0 at Liverpool on Monday night (which made it 10 matches away from Eastlands without a win) in which they also lost their talisman Carlos Tevez to Injury.  

United can make their 10th FA Cup final of modern times

The FA Cup is City's last chance of silverware, and while it seems to many that they are well set to achieve their primary objective of securing Champions League football again next year, Tottenham are breathing down their necks and still have one game to play against them, so all’s not finished yet (just three points separate City from fifth-placed Tottenham).

This test is huge for the Blues, and also as every bit as big an opportunity as it is a potential season, ender, which has been factored into quotes as short as 3/1 for them to win in 90 minutes and 11/8 to qualify (why else would they be that short) .

However, Manchester United have lost only three times in the Premiership this year and come here on an absolute roll. 6 wins in their last 6 include a double over Chelsea, to take them closer to a treble for the first time since 1999, as well as wins over Bolton and West Ham to all but seal the Premiership.

United will also be hampered by the absence of Rooney, who has been in red-hot form of late, but have plenty of back-up options available, with Berbatov and Hernandez proving at least very able to The credentials for United in big games are impeccable, For instance, the Red Devils have lost only one of their previous nine semi-finals under, to Everton in 2009.

I’m not keen on overs (6/5) or unders (8/13) of 2.5, but the double results make for interesting reading. 11/4 with Stan James about a double result of United/United is fair but given that in five of City’s seven games against the Big Five, the half-time scoreline has been 0-0, Draw/United at 9/2 with Coral is the value if you feel so inclined. 4/7 United to qualify could be seen as a banker, but I’ll play is straight and simple and back United in 90 minutes at a general 11/10.

Advice

3 pts Manchester United to beat City (11/10 General)

totesport.com Greenham Stakes 2011

3.10 Newbury

totesport.com Greenham Stakes (Group 3) (Str) (Class 1)  (3YO only)

Winner £28,385

Excelebration: Fancied to make a winning debut and while he didn’t bring home money, promising enough run; Has recouped on next two occasions, coming clear of only fair fields at Doncaster and Newmarket; Must be well liked to run here although this much harder than usual for him.

Frankel: Very highly regarded colt who made serious impression when earning quotes of when winning better-than-average maiden in style at Newmarket on debut ; Easy demolition of 2 rivals in Doncaster conditions event was somehow surpassed by a contemptuously easy win in the Royal Lodge Stakes; Two main rivals didn’t show up but still cemented his claims as a Champion two – year old in Dewhurst, having subsequent Group 1 winner Roderic O’Connor well behind & expected to take this on way to 2,000 Guineas.

Picture Editor: Shaped every inch a Derby prospect, beating smart Nathaniel at Doncaster first before running out easy winner of a conditions contest at Leicester when defeating two rivals by 30 lengths; Below form last start but should be forgiven and might have big season ahead; Pacemaker for Frankel.

Shropshire: Excellent pedigree and fetched 70,000 Euros at sales; Created excellent impression when cruising home in 6f maiden at Haydock, easing to front and going away for a cosily victory; Should not be underestimated that he was sent off as short as 4/1 for Gimcrack and plenty of potential.

Strong Suit: Built on highly impressive debut success (made smooth progressive before drawing  away nicely from Neebras; Railway Stakes winner 6l back in third) before winning Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, doing very well to overcome serious interference; Disappointing when only third in Phoenix but possibly not helped by being infront to be shot at and ground to blame when beaten so far behind Strong Suit in Middle Park Stakes when last seen; Faster ground should help and the yardstick for the race; There to take advantage should fav disappoint.

Vanguard Dream: Three from three (maiden, novice and nursery) and looked to be going places as a juvenile to disappointing to see him brushed aside so easily in AW Listed race; Better for that but this too hard.

VERDICT: An excellent renewal of a race that may well have a classic winner in it this season courtesy of FRANKEL, so impressive in his four wins last year. What this year will bring we can only wonder but it’s he’s too short to back and too good to safely oppose. Strong Suit will provide a good level to the form, and if you must be playing on the race, Shropshire & Picture Editor are huge prices for the place.