Just taken a look at today's racing and think it's a good day of meetings.
Curragh
Not original but I'm pinning my hopes on Ballydoyle having a good day, and there's no reason that 2 of their horses shouldn't go very, very well.
1.15 - Wild Wind (win)
This is no good thing and she seemed pretty forward first time out (so may be vulnerable to something out of the ordinary) but the winner won the listed race last night and she should improve anyway and 2/1 is a fair price taking that form into account. Puttore's form is working out brilliantly, with the 3rd and 4th winning since. Light Footsteps was an encouraging third at Limerick on debut and will run Wild Wind close on a line through Gatamamla (second to her) but might need further.
1.45 - Recharge
No price but is consistent enough to run well at Group 1 level, so must be taking all the beating here. Shintoh has run well on his first 2 starts this season but will need to be better than last time to win here, while Precious Gem is taking on better horses than last time so will also need to step up on her best form. Carazam must be respected as a shrewd yard allow him to take his chance off a long break.
2.20 - Remember When
Still a maiden but has posted very promising efforts on all of her starts, first of all when coming second in strong maiden and then when running a good race on debut to come third behind Chinese White in good listed event before taking that form to new level when close fourth in Irish 1,000 Guineas. Then ran a great race when third in the Oaks, finding herself possibly in front too soon and not staying the trip fully, so down to 10 furlongs, should go really well Chinese White was better than ever last season, and returned in stunning form when trashing She’s Our Mark easily at Gowran on comeback, with Remember When behind. However there's reason to believe that Remember When has improved past her, not least her places in Group 1 company (whilst remembering that Chinese White has been third in the Tattersalls Gold Cup). She would like some scout in the ground don't you think. Flying Cloud's reappearance form is very strong (only just behind Midday, Sariska) and she will improve a lot for her first run. Adkerna may have just flattered for stamina after setting such a strong gallop and can last longer here, but was passed convincingly by Remember When before the 2 pole that day.
4.30 - Saptapadi (win)
Profound Beauty should win based on her form last time but I think that she's too short on very quick ground. It's worth remembering that Age Of Aquarius was giving her 3lbs and may still not have been fully fit that day, so while she should improve there are grounds for taking her on. SAPTADPADI was going to win the Henry II Stakes before throwing it way due to greenness and while that form has been let down, he should improve plenty and wouldn't be coming here for no reason.
Newcastle
2.00 Bonnie Charlie (each/way)
Last year´s winner Knot In Wood and Himalya both ran very well in handicaps at Royal Ascot, but holes can be picked in that form and Bonnie Charlie shaped well on his reappearance (from been boosted) and has gone close at this level before. The reason he got the nod over Sir Gerry was that he fitted the stats better, comes her off a nice rest, and is a bigger price.
3.00 - Mamlook and Bernie The Bolt (each/way)
Fiendishly difficult to sort out. Deauville Flyer has plenty going for him, (still on up after an impressive win over a similar trip at York last time) but is too short to even consider. Overturn was one of the most progressive hurdlers in 2010 and signed off in May with a fine second to Eradicate in the Swinton Hurdle. The main snag is the draw for me, and that might just be enough to put me off him. MAMLOOK always runs well in theses races, got a deserves success in the Chester Cup last time, and should have no problems here off just a 4lbs higher mark. BERNIE THE BOLT was only 13th behind Mamlook but didn't handle Chester, needed the run and had an awful draw. He will be fitter today, has a good draw and should go nicely.
Saturday 26 June 2010
Friday 18 June 2010
Royal Ascot Day 5
2.30 (Chesham Stakes) - A tricky race to weigh up with several of the runners untried over the trip and unexposed. The sure stayer JACKAROO (win) looked a smart prospect when making a winning debut and, whilst his stable can't be described as flying at the moment by its standards, they did have a double yesterday and he could be anything, so is the one to be with. King Torus bolted up very well last time, Created good impression on Leicester debut, being green early but then staying on powerfully to score by 5 lengths. His stable has won this the last 2 years and he should go well here. The interesting contender Zaidan shaped as though he'd improve for the run when winning over five furlongs at Doncaster, as is usually the case with juveniles from the yard. The form looks strong so more can be expected. Sonning Rose did well to win at Pontefract and she may just be underestimated in the market, while the stable’s Fork Handles impressed at Haydock but is bred to want further than this and looks second string on jockey booking. Clarke Lane shouldn’t be underestimate but was beaten last time, and ESKIMO(each/way) is my idea of a big contender too as should be suited by the step back in distance and Ryan Moore is no second string jockey. He bolted up last time too.
3.05 (Hardwicke Stakes) – It’s difficult to look beyond HARBINGER (win/nap) as the answer, seeing as he looked up to Group 1 standard when bolting up in his two runs, let alone Group 2’s and he’s got a lot going for him here. Having been talked of as a Derby candidate last year, he then went on to comfortably land a maiden at Chester's May meeting before connections sent him to Goodwood for the Group Three Gordon Stakes which again he took in his stride, at which point the sky was the limit. Subsequent disappointments in the Great Voltigeur and the St Simon Stakes at Newbury meant he ended the season on a low note but he looks better than ever as a four year old and can outclass these. Alainmaar has progressed well this term, landing the City & Suburban at Epsom in the manner of a Group race horse. Whether it’s this level remains to be seen. Wajiir holds some useful form but is well behind Harbinger based on his third in the Yorkshire Cup last time. Redwood’s 1m2f Sandown 2nd is a decent run but he ran a shocker last time, and seemingly only had the track as an excuse. Jukebox Jury is very smart but a 5lbs penalty makes things very hard and he did finish well beaten at Epsom in the Coronation Cup. Admittedly he didn’t have the ability of Fame And Glory to keep going off that pace (was one of 3 who were 10 lengths clear with 4 to go) so should do better. The advised e/w pick for value is DUNCAN, who wasn't beaten at all far in the Group One Coronation Cup last year and made a satisfactory return here last time. He lost a shoe and was wrong that day, so a stronger pace can help matters for a fitter horse.
3.50 (Golden Jubilee Stakes) – One of the best renewals for a long time. FLEETING SPRIT (each/way) has always gone well fresh and is easily good enough to run a big race here. She blitzed the July Cup field in exceptional style before being undone by only the ground in the Sprint Cup at Haydock, getting too bogged down to hold off Regal Parade. She got no run in the Prix L’Abbaye before simply not finishing the Breeders’ Cup Sprint too much at the end of the year. These are her optimum conditions. It was thought to choose between Kinsdale King and HAPPY ZERO as an each/way pick but the fact that the latter has run on turf for ages gets him the vote, despite the fact that on a line through Rocket Man, he should actually finish behind Kinsdale King. Kinsdale King’s win in the Golden Shaheen makes him a leading player here, so should be respected and can go well here, with the booking of Kieren Fallon is excellent news for his backer. One to take a note of in the market is Starspangledbanner, who holds some excellent form in Australia and ran a very good race in the Duke Of York Stakes last time. Having to give away weight did not help his cause and if he improves as much as the stable’s other runner’s have for their first runs, it would be no surprise to see him win. That brings us onto Showcasing, who ran a truly great race last time having been held up way too far off the pace and probably needing the run a lot too. He’s reported to have tightened up a lot so should go well, although this is a lot tougher than his last assignment. Main Aim should also come on for his win last time, but he will do well to reverse form with Showcasing. We have talked about every horse in that race but Prime Defender, but he did have race fitness, no penalty and first run that day, and this is infinitely tougher. 20/1 is big but he’ll do well to hold off Showcasing and co today. Marchand D’Or is coming back to his best (much like the winner of the King’s Stand, Equiano but this is infinitely harder and if he couldn’t win at his best, one has to argue how good he could be now. Abbaye winner Total Gallery doesn't have to carry a Group One penalty now but that only serves to make his run in Tuesday's Golden Jubilee all the more disappointing and he'll need to have recovered quickly although Kingsgate Native did so 2 years ago. The William Haggas pair High Standing and Triple Aspect are unexposed enough and deserve respect but this is going to be very hard for the both of them. It’s only 1 start since Regal Parade won the Sprint Cup but he just befitted from the soft ground that day. One should remember that Vernear actually beat Gokidova last season when winning the Foret and should strip fitter for a reappearance run but this is a tough ask and she did look awful when running last time. Alverta has a good record and is a huge price but has had trouble getting over and will be sharper for the run. This was harder than the mare’s races she’s been contesting in Australia.
4.25 (Hardwicke) – When GENKI (each/way) was stuck out about 5 wide on his seasonal debut at Newmarket (under second topweight) however well he ran would be a bonus and he did fantastic in the circumstances to come home fourth. He may well have won that day and the form has been well boosted, so it’s not hard to see him running a big race here. MEDICEAN MAN (each/way) was on the bridle for a long way last time and the fact the still had the race in safekeeping despite veering so badly right gives him a big chance here. Unraced since 2008,Laddies Poker Two, a late withdrawal after being antepost favourite for this race last year is a fascinating contender. You could take any winner from another 10, including Redford, Ingleby Lady, Jimmy Styles, Noverre To Go, Johannes, Edge Closer, Striking Sprit, Kaldoun Kingdom, Gallagher add especially Damien, but I’m happy enough with my top 2.
5.00 (Duke Of Edinburgh) - The top 2 or three will do for me. IMPOSING(win) is too promising to oppose seriously, so gets the vote as he’s likely to find more for a new trip after winning off a long layoff. The hold-up style of MAYTYR (each/way) should do him favours from stall 11 and that’s why he gets the vote over Submariner, Shamali, Classic Vintage and Sweet Lighting.
5.35 (Queen Alexandra) – Have the funniest feeling Cariccola shouldn’t be 18/1 and that neither should Balkan Knight but the 2 that I go with will probably be AAJEL and DESTUCHLAND (both each/way), as both seem to have class and stamina though the former might not stay and the latter might not handle the ground.
3.05 (Hardwicke Stakes) – It’s difficult to look beyond HARBINGER (win/nap) as the answer, seeing as he looked up to Group 1 standard when bolting up in his two runs, let alone Group 2’s and he’s got a lot going for him here. Having been talked of as a Derby candidate last year, he then went on to comfortably land a maiden at Chester's May meeting before connections sent him to Goodwood for the Group Three Gordon Stakes which again he took in his stride, at which point the sky was the limit. Subsequent disappointments in the Great Voltigeur and the St Simon Stakes at Newbury meant he ended the season on a low note but he looks better than ever as a four year old and can outclass these. Alainmaar has progressed well this term, landing the City & Suburban at Epsom in the manner of a Group race horse. Whether it’s this level remains to be seen. Wajiir holds some useful form but is well behind Harbinger based on his third in the Yorkshire Cup last time. Redwood’s 1m2f Sandown 2nd is a decent run but he ran a shocker last time, and seemingly only had the track as an excuse. Jukebox Jury is very smart but a 5lbs penalty makes things very hard and he did finish well beaten at Epsom in the Coronation Cup. Admittedly he didn’t have the ability of Fame And Glory to keep going off that pace (was one of 3 who were 10 lengths clear with 4 to go) so should do better. The advised e/w pick for value is DUNCAN, who wasn't beaten at all far in the Group One Coronation Cup last year and made a satisfactory return here last time. He lost a shoe and was wrong that day, so a stronger pace can help matters for a fitter horse.
3.50 (Golden Jubilee Stakes) – One of the best renewals for a long time. FLEETING SPRIT (each/way) has always gone well fresh and is easily good enough to run a big race here. She blitzed the July Cup field in exceptional style before being undone by only the ground in the Sprint Cup at Haydock, getting too bogged down to hold off Regal Parade. She got no run in the Prix L’Abbaye before simply not finishing the Breeders’ Cup Sprint too much at the end of the year. These are her optimum conditions. It was thought to choose between Kinsdale King and HAPPY ZERO as an each/way pick but the fact that the latter has run on turf for ages gets him the vote, despite the fact that on a line through Rocket Man, he should actually finish behind Kinsdale King. Kinsdale King’s win in the Golden Shaheen makes him a leading player here, so should be respected and can go well here, with the booking of Kieren Fallon is excellent news for his backer. One to take a note of in the market is Starspangledbanner, who holds some excellent form in Australia and ran a very good race in the Duke Of York Stakes last time. Having to give away weight did not help his cause and if he improves as much as the stable’s other runner’s have for their first runs, it would be no surprise to see him win. That brings us onto Showcasing, who ran a truly great race last time having been held up way too far off the pace and probably needing the run a lot too. He’s reported to have tightened up a lot so should go well, although this is a lot tougher than his last assignment. Main Aim should also come on for his win last time, but he will do well to reverse form with Showcasing. We have talked about every horse in that race but Prime Defender, but he did have race fitness, no penalty and first run that day, and this is infinitely tougher. 20/1 is big but he’ll do well to hold off Showcasing and co today. Marchand D’Or is coming back to his best (much like the winner of the King’s Stand, Equiano but this is infinitely harder and if he couldn’t win at his best, one has to argue how good he could be now. Abbaye winner Total Gallery doesn't have to carry a Group One penalty now but that only serves to make his run in Tuesday's Golden Jubilee all the more disappointing and he'll need to have recovered quickly although Kingsgate Native did so 2 years ago. The William Haggas pair High Standing and Triple Aspect are unexposed enough and deserve respect but this is going to be very hard for the both of them. It’s only 1 start since Regal Parade won the Sprint Cup but he just befitted from the soft ground that day. One should remember that Vernear actually beat Gokidova last season when winning the Foret and should strip fitter for a reappearance run but this is a tough ask and she did look awful when running last time. Alverta has a good record and is a huge price but has had trouble getting over and will be sharper for the run. This was harder than the mare’s races she’s been contesting in Australia.
4.25 (Hardwicke) – When GENKI (each/way) was stuck out about 5 wide on his seasonal debut at Newmarket (under second topweight) however well he ran would be a bonus and he did fantastic in the circumstances to come home fourth. He may well have won that day and the form has been well boosted, so it’s not hard to see him running a big race here. MEDICEAN MAN (each/way) was on the bridle for a long way last time and the fact the still had the race in safekeeping despite veering so badly right gives him a big chance here. Unraced since 2008,Laddies Poker Two, a late withdrawal after being antepost favourite for this race last year is a fascinating contender. You could take any winner from another 10, including Redford, Ingleby Lady, Jimmy Styles, Noverre To Go, Johannes, Edge Closer, Striking Sprit, Kaldoun Kingdom, Gallagher add especially Damien, but I’m happy enough with my top 2.
5.00 (Duke Of Edinburgh) - The top 2 or three will do for me. IMPOSING(win) is too promising to oppose seriously, so gets the vote as he’s likely to find more for a new trip after winning off a long layoff. The hold-up style of MAYTYR (each/way) should do him favours from stall 11 and that’s why he gets the vote over Submariner, Shamali, Classic Vintage and Sweet Lighting.
5.35 (Queen Alexandra) – Have the funniest feeling Cariccola shouldn’t be 18/1 and that neither should Balkan Knight but the 2 that I go with will probably be AAJEL and DESTUCHLAND (both each/way), as both seem to have class and stamina though the former might not stay and the latter might not handle the ground.
Royal Ascot Day 4 - Coronation Stakes Day
Hope you are doing well and sorry for a poor Thursday, Afsare apart. 2.30 (Albany) - RADHARCNAFARRIDGE (win) was very impressive when winning the Nass Sprint Stakes; With no penalty for that win she can go close in an open race for the grade.
MEMORY (each/way) is my another major contender. Her win on AW was really good and she's well regarded, just like Hooray can also go close as she did the same as Memory first time up.
3.05 (King Edward VII Stakes) - If AT FIRST SIGHT (win) is over his Derby run then he must take all the beating against this lot.
That run is the best form and even earlier runs give him a big chance. Not too many in field look totally unexposed, with the excption of Green Moon. He is ready for a step up to this company, havong bolted up in the London Gold Cup and also a listed contest at Newnarket last time. Buzzword was well behind At 1st Sight in the Derby and will do well to get closer. Monterosso is 6lbs better off with Green Moon for the Newbury running but the latter has really progressed convincingly and may just have improved past him.
Togiak, Wasset, and Artic Cosmos have it all to do so Bullet Train could be main threat, having already bolted up in Group 3 company before not handling the track in the Derby.
3.05 (Coronation) - Anna Salai is good place to start, as she was an excllent 2nd in the Irish 1,000 last time (after quickening brilliantly to take a French Group 3) & may have hit the front too soon.
With no Betrah here, she has a big chance today. Music Show ran another good race but had every chance behind Anna Salai in the Irish 1,000 last time, but still could be an each/way bet.
LILLE LANGTRY (win) gets a tenative vote on the basis that she may just improve past the lot (Anna Salai, Music Show and the rest) for fitness (that being her first run back from an injury). She was held up too far back and also came too far wide so has plenty of reason to do better this time. Lady Of The Desert got no run in the French 1,000 Gns last time. Ailthough the form is good there was no pace that day - Stamina an issue??
EVADING TEMPETE (each/way) was a very good Italian Guineas winner at Capanelle last month when easily beating 18 rivals. She was also second to Joanna, ahead of Special Duty (hated ground and needed run) but will like faster ground.
4.25 (Wolferton) - Rainbow Peak will go close but 2/1 makes no real appeal. I like the claims of TRAFFIC GAURD & EASTERN ARIA (each/way) as both are well weighted.
5.00 (Queen's Vase) - Really hard to pick between Corisca (tranier has an amazing record in this) & MIKHAIL GLINKA (win) but the latter has Group 1 form and if staying will go close.
Icon Dream's form is solid enough to take a hand, and so is Chink Of Light although they have to prove stamina for the trip.
5.35 (Buckingham Palace H'Cap) - HIMALYA (each/way) ran a fine race from a crap draw last time. Best of the rest - Either Bangalore Gold, the well supported Treadwell (at least by tipsters) and Luca Cumani's well supported and progressive Day Of The Eagle.
MEMORY (each/way) is my another major contender. Her win on AW was really good and she's well regarded, just like Hooray can also go close as she did the same as Memory first time up.
3.05 (King Edward VII Stakes) - If AT FIRST SIGHT (win) is over his Derby run then he must take all the beating against this lot.
That run is the best form and even earlier runs give him a big chance. Not too many in field look totally unexposed, with the excption of Green Moon. He is ready for a step up to this company, havong bolted up in the London Gold Cup and also a listed contest at Newnarket last time. Buzzword was well behind At 1st Sight in the Derby and will do well to get closer. Monterosso is 6lbs better off with Green Moon for the Newbury running but the latter has really progressed convincingly and may just have improved past him.
Togiak, Wasset, and Artic Cosmos have it all to do so Bullet Train could be main threat, having already bolted up in Group 3 company before not handling the track in the Derby.
3.05 (Coronation) - Anna Salai is good place to start, as she was an excllent 2nd in the Irish 1,000 last time (after quickening brilliantly to take a French Group 3) & may have hit the front too soon.
With no Betrah here, she has a big chance today. Music Show ran another good race but had every chance behind Anna Salai in the Irish 1,000 last time, but still could be an each/way bet.
LILLE LANGTRY (win) gets a tenative vote on the basis that she may just improve past the lot (Anna Salai, Music Show and the rest) for fitness (that being her first run back from an injury). She was held up too far back and also came too far wide so has plenty of reason to do better this time. Lady Of The Desert got no run in the French 1,000 Gns last time. Ailthough the form is good there was no pace that day - Stamina an issue??
EVADING TEMPETE (each/way) was a very good Italian Guineas winner at Capanelle last month when easily beating 18 rivals. She was also second to Joanna, ahead of Special Duty (hated ground and needed run) but will like faster ground.
4.25 (Wolferton) - Rainbow Peak will go close but 2/1 makes no real appeal. I like the claims of TRAFFIC GAURD & EASTERN ARIA (each/way) as both are well weighted.
5.00 (Queen's Vase) - Really hard to pick between Corisca (tranier has an amazing record in this) & MIKHAIL GLINKA (win) but the latter has Group 1 form and if staying will go close.
Icon Dream's form is solid enough to take a hand, and so is Chink Of Light although they have to prove stamina for the trip.
5.35 (Buckingham Palace H'Cap) - HIMALYA (each/way) ran a fine race from a crap draw last time. Best of the rest - Either Bangalore Gold, the well supported Treadwell (at least by tipsters) and Luca Cumani's well supported and progressive Day Of The Eagle.
Thursday 17 June 2010
Royal Ascot Day 3 - Gold Cup, Norfolk, Ribblesdale.
Well what a week and the only complaint that I have is that I've been unable to get to post, as I had a decent Tues and Wednesday.
2.30 (Norfolk Stakes) - Dinkum Diamond can go close & Excel Bolt impressed last time but I get the feeling ZEBDEE (win) has been underrated so far by many and impressed me when landing a conditions race here over 6f last time.
3.05 (Ribblesdale) - Having had a form boost by Safina & Deluxe, HIBBAYEB (each/way) is the pick in an open race. Gertude Bell is feared most, while Principal Role & Eldalili are respected stepping up in trip. Pipette's form technically says she's at the forefront altough she might not stay that well.
3.50 (Gold Cup) - At 13/2, KASBAH BLISS appeals a lot for e/w and win purposes. He has strong Group 1 form and possibly should have caught Alandi in the Prix Du Cadaran at Longchamp. He's a gauranteed stayer and has the only Group 1 form in the race AT THE TRIP.
I would also back ASK each/way purely becuase his form is top, top class and he could well improve for 2m4f. Him being off since Oct is a worry though.
4.25 (Britannia) - A race I hate the look of with the draw to deal with & progressive sorts left, right & centre, and all the recent winners having their marks hammered up by 5lbs at least.
If made to back something, I would go for BALDUCCI & HYPNOTISED each/way. Both are progressive & are the best I can think of regarding trying to get into the places.
5.00 (Hampton Court) - ASFARE (win) looks a group horse in making & should go close. FENCING MASTER (each/way) is well worth a chance if Ballydoyle are running him
here because he wouldn't be rushed back. Wigmorw Hall has to take on Asfare (well beaten second behind him) and while a stronger pace should help (and so should Spencer on board) he just looks a bit awkward under pressure. Fair Trade is feared most out of the rest, while Quadrille and Film Score are decent looking types.
5.35 ( King George H'cap) - Ballydoyle are going through a bad patch so BRIGHT HORIZION isn't a confident e/w pick but he's won his last 2 well and looks to have more to give. Dandino is my idea of a major threat, having been unbeaten this term and showed he's not stopped improving yet with an impressive success at Epsom. A 9lb rise makes life tougher and he was suited by a fierce gallop in that contest but there may be more to come while London Stripe will surely improve for this longer trip and the first run for a trainer who does very well here. If settling again, and also improving from his first run there's no reason Tactiam can't go well. Berling can surely only improve for the extra furlong, and if he doesn't hang will be right there.
2.30 (Norfolk Stakes) - Dinkum Diamond can go close & Excel Bolt impressed last time but I get the feeling ZEBDEE (win) has been underrated so far by many and impressed me when landing a conditions race here over 6f last time.
3.05 (Ribblesdale) - Having had a form boost by Safina & Deluxe, HIBBAYEB (each/way) is the pick in an open race. Gertude Bell is feared most, while Principal Role & Eldalili are respected stepping up in trip. Pipette's form technically says she's at the forefront altough she might not stay that well.
3.50 (Gold Cup) - At 13/2, KASBAH BLISS appeals a lot for e/w and win purposes. He has strong Group 1 form and possibly should have caught Alandi in the Prix Du Cadaran at Longchamp. He's a gauranteed stayer and has the only Group 1 form in the race AT THE TRIP.
I would also back ASK each/way purely becuase his form is top, top class and he could well improve for 2m4f. Him being off since Oct is a worry though.
4.25 (Britannia) - A race I hate the look of with the draw to deal with & progressive sorts left, right & centre, and all the recent winners having their marks hammered up by 5lbs at least.
If made to back something, I would go for BALDUCCI & HYPNOTISED each/way. Both are progressive & are the best I can think of regarding trying to get into the places.
5.00 (Hampton Court) - ASFARE (win) looks a group horse in making & should go close. FENCING MASTER (each/way) is well worth a chance if Ballydoyle are running him
here because he wouldn't be rushed back. Wigmorw Hall has to take on Asfare (well beaten second behind him) and while a stronger pace should help (and so should Spencer on board) he just looks a bit awkward under pressure. Fair Trade is feared most out of the rest, while Quadrille and Film Score are decent looking types.
5.35 ( King George H'cap) - Ballydoyle are going through a bad patch so BRIGHT HORIZION isn't a confident e/w pick but he's won his last 2 well and looks to have more to give. Dandino is my idea of a major threat, having been unbeaten this term and showed he's not stopped improving yet with an impressive success at Epsom. A 9lb rise makes life tougher and he was suited by a fierce gallop in that contest but there may be more to come while London Stripe will surely improve for this longer trip and the first run for a trainer who does very well here. If settling again, and also improving from his first run there's no reason Tactiam can't go well. Berling can surely only improve for the extra furlong, and if he doesn't hang will be right there.
Saturday 12 June 2010
Royal Ascot Day 1 (Tuesday) - Queen Anne
2.30 Royal Ascot
Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1)
Pick: Goldikova
Alexandaros: Class horse at his best, with his Lockinge Stakes second the highlight of his runs last year; Has seemingly retained that form judged on his Group 2 win a Group 2 second at Meydan in Dubai but he was seemingly out classed and his good Diomed Stakes second did nothing to disperse that impression.
Arabian Gleam: Twice a winner of the Park Stakes under Johnny Murtagh, and ran well enough when attempting for a hat – trick, before taking Challenge Stakes in gutsy style; Those are all good efforts but he was well beaten seventh in this last year and race looks much stronger this year.
Calming Influence: Improved on all his previous form to run out an impressive winner of the Godolphin Mile and become first winner for rapidly improving yard of Mamhood Al Zarooni yard; Did benefit from good draw and well judged ride from Ahmed Ajtebi, not to mention compromising draw for others; Would need to improve a ton off that to win here though.
Cat Juinor: Consistent horse who has been hard to win with, despite a number of good runs in strong company; Looked good when winning Group 3 at Meydan but disappointed when ninth behind Calming Influence and unlikely to reverse form with Paco Boy form last time.
Dalghar: Steadily progressive and well-bred half-brother to Dalakhani and Daylami who has always been held in highest regard by powerful connections; Booked his ticket here when leaving powerful impression in Prix du Palais-Royal last time, always travelling sweetly accelerating well to win with something in hand; No reason why he can’t make major impression, even in race of this quality.
Dream Eater: Excellent 5th in 2,000 Guineas 2 years ago before then finishing 3rd in the Jersey Stakes, suffering a setback afterwards; Has continued to run some consistent races at decent level and also made good return last month; However was only fifth in this last year and this renewal much tougher.
Quqba: Really took off in 2009, improving from handicap company in April to a very near miss in Group 2 at Newmarket in October; Still improving rapidly based on his Lockinge Stakes second to Paco Boy, although he did get first run and was comfortably beaten.
Paco Boy: Top class and well established miler who embarrassed field in this last year and looked just as good when landing Bet365 and Lockinge Stakes this season; Seems to be in top form, and must take a big hand in defending his title.
Pipedreamer: Ran very creditably last season in top class company, winning the Prix Dollar at Longchamp and then coming excellent fourth in Champion Stakes; Ran good race last time but will have some task on beating the reopposing horses from Lockinge, let alone winning.
Rip Van Winkle: Highly regarded horse who finally put it all together last season, when romping away with Sussex Stakes, beating Paco Boy solidly and used class to put him through QE11 Stakes, beating Zacinto;’ Would have to be given a major chance on his form and may still improve with clearer run but to be coming her without a run could really give him a major problem.
Zacinto: Looked classy from word go but restricted to 6 starts, scoring well in listed race on belated return before second (didn't settle) to Delegator at Goodwood; Improved majorly on that when Giving Rip Van Winkle a real race in the QEII Stakes at Ascot; Took a bad step in Breeder’s Cup Mile (didn’t like the track) so that run can be discounted and still very much unexposed even despite his Lockinge blow out last time; Will need to be right back to best but no reason that he can’t be and can go well here.
Goldikova: Eight time Group 1 winner who had arguably her best season ever last summer, lowing out first time up before winning the Falmouth before going on to trash high class fields, one containing fillies, (Prix Rotschild) one containing colts (Prix Jacques Le Marois) , putting up 2 of the best miling performances seen in years in process; Impressive on her reappearance run in Prix D'Ishphan, and actually won, despite having finished seventh in that last year; That shows she is in top form and can take all the beating here.
VERDICT: A simply wonderful race to open a simply wonderful meeting and whom better to kick off our meeting than the simply incredible GOLIKOVA, who was the best miler in the world last season and looked as if she may even be able to improve on that when landing the Prix D’Isphan on her reappearance, a race which may well have been much needed. She has 2 huge threats in the shape of Paco Boy and Rip Van Winkle, with Paco Boy coming first under the microscope. He looks better than her this season, but he has been beaten by Goldikova before and while he’s a better horse, so is she. Rip Van Winkle could do great things at a mile this year with a clear training run but coming here without a run could prove to be his downfall. While the likes of Quqba and Zacinto can hardly be ignored, the improving DALGHAR is the outsider to watch apart from the big three. He broke the track record for 7f at Longchamp last time and has always been well thought of by connections who have handled some powerful, powerful horses.
Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1)
Pick: Goldikova
Alexandaros: Class horse at his best, with his Lockinge Stakes second the highlight of his runs last year; Has seemingly retained that form judged on his Group 2 win a Group 2 second at Meydan in Dubai but he was seemingly out classed and his good Diomed Stakes second did nothing to disperse that impression.
Arabian Gleam: Twice a winner of the Park Stakes under Johnny Murtagh, and ran well enough when attempting for a hat – trick, before taking Challenge Stakes in gutsy style; Those are all good efforts but he was well beaten seventh in this last year and race looks much stronger this year.
Calming Influence: Improved on all his previous form to run out an impressive winner of the Godolphin Mile and become first winner for rapidly improving yard of Mamhood Al Zarooni yard; Did benefit from good draw and well judged ride from Ahmed Ajtebi, not to mention compromising draw for others; Would need to improve a ton off that to win here though.
Cat Juinor: Consistent horse who has been hard to win with, despite a number of good runs in strong company; Looked good when winning Group 3 at Meydan but disappointed when ninth behind Calming Influence and unlikely to reverse form with Paco Boy form last time.
Dalghar: Steadily progressive and well-bred half-brother to Dalakhani and Daylami who has always been held in highest regard by powerful connections; Booked his ticket here when leaving powerful impression in Prix du Palais-Royal last time, always travelling sweetly accelerating well to win with something in hand; No reason why he can’t make major impression, even in race of this quality.
Dream Eater: Excellent 5th in 2,000 Guineas 2 years ago before then finishing 3rd in the Jersey Stakes, suffering a setback afterwards; Has continued to run some consistent races at decent level and also made good return last month; However was only fifth in this last year and this renewal much tougher.
Quqba: Really took off in 2009, improving from handicap company in April to a very near miss in Group 2 at Newmarket in October; Still improving rapidly based on his Lockinge Stakes second to Paco Boy, although he did get first run and was comfortably beaten.
Paco Boy: Top class and well established miler who embarrassed field in this last year and looked just as good when landing Bet365 and Lockinge Stakes this season; Seems to be in top form, and must take a big hand in defending his title.
Pipedreamer: Ran very creditably last season in top class company, winning the Prix Dollar at Longchamp and then coming excellent fourth in Champion Stakes; Ran good race last time but will have some task on beating the reopposing horses from Lockinge, let alone winning.
Rip Van Winkle: Highly regarded horse who finally put it all together last season, when romping away with Sussex Stakes, beating Paco Boy solidly and used class to put him through QE11 Stakes, beating Zacinto;’ Would have to be given a major chance on his form and may still improve with clearer run but to be coming her without a run could really give him a major problem.
Zacinto: Looked classy from word go but restricted to 6 starts, scoring well in listed race on belated return before second (didn't settle) to Delegator at Goodwood; Improved majorly on that when Giving Rip Van Winkle a real race in the QEII Stakes at Ascot; Took a bad step in Breeder’s Cup Mile (didn’t like the track) so that run can be discounted and still very much unexposed even despite his Lockinge blow out last time; Will need to be right back to best but no reason that he can’t be and can go well here.
Goldikova: Eight time Group 1 winner who had arguably her best season ever last summer, lowing out first time up before winning the Falmouth before going on to trash high class fields, one containing fillies, (Prix Rotschild) one containing colts (Prix Jacques Le Marois) , putting up 2 of the best miling performances seen in years in process; Impressive on her reappearance run in Prix D'Ishphan, and actually won, despite having finished seventh in that last year; That shows she is in top form and can take all the beating here.
VERDICT: A simply wonderful race to open a simply wonderful meeting and whom better to kick off our meeting than the simply incredible GOLIKOVA, who was the best miler in the world last season and looked as if she may even be able to improve on that when landing the Prix D’Isphan on her reappearance, a race which may well have been much needed. She has 2 huge threats in the shape of Paco Boy and Rip Van Winkle, with Paco Boy coming first under the microscope. He looks better than her this season, but he has been beaten by Goldikova before and while he’s a better horse, so is she. Rip Van Winkle could do great things at a mile this year with a clear training run but coming here without a run could prove to be his downfall. While the likes of Quqba and Zacinto can hardly be ignored, the improving DALGHAR is the outsider to watch apart from the big three. He broke the track record for 7f at Longchamp last time and has always been well thought of by connections who have handled some powerful, powerful horses.
Back with a bang!!!
As we all know, Royal Ascot is next week and there are 6 Group 1 races to come. Due to time restrictions, I might not be able to post for every race, but hopefully I can do the first 4 of Tuesday , and the Prince Of Wale's Stakes on Wednesday. But coming up right now, is the Queen Anne preview, so enjoy.
Sunday 6 June 2010
Prix Du Jockey Club 2010
3.04 Chantilly
Prix Du Jockey Club ((3yo Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner €968,523 - 22 run
Win Pick: Cape Blanco
Each / Way picks: Lope De Vega, Viscount Nelson
Ice Blue: Showed an excellent turn of foot to beat Handsome Devil twice this season (Prix De Ferrieres /Prix Greffulhe ), and fact that he won more impressively last time confirms impression he is fast improving for a trainer bidding to win this for sixth time, and must be respected today with booking of Ryan Moore significant.
Bhekabad: Has always been held in high regard by connection who know how to win this race, and showed immense promise when unbeaten in three races at two, finishing last year with a comfortable victory in the Group 3 Prix des Chenes at Longchamp; Heavy ground and lack of fitness conspired against him when beaten into third in Prix Omnium II; Back to true form when last seen in Prix du Guiche, coasting into the straight, responding well and reversing form with rivals who beat him previously in the process; Must be given major chance here over trip he should like a lot.
Green Rock: Unbeaten/listed winner at two, only just getting better of fairly moderate field; Hard to know if he has improved in his 2 runs this year and has to contend with car park draw, not to mention facing Ice Blue and Handsome Devil.
Big Creek: Beaten in listed company and trashed in Italian Derby, so looks outclassed here.
Shamalagan: Quickly exposed as 2 year old and it had been same story as 3 year old, finishing well beaten sixth on both starts this year, before staying on third in French 2,000 Guineas last time; Needs more to win here and has to contend with bad draw and reverse form with winner Lope De Vega.
Prince Pretender: Has been beaten on 3 starts this year, none of them in graded company so up against it to say the lease.
Handsome Devil: Got the better of Rewilding on his first start but was disappointing on seasonal reappearance when beaten 11 lengths into fourth in conditions event; Has since redeemed himself with 2 seconds to leading contender Ice Blue but unlikely to reverse form today.
Dancing David: Very promising maiden win at Newbury considering that he was green from Pillar to post, making all to win impressively, and built on that again with a very good effort to finish fourth in Racing Post Trophy; Hasn’t quite built on that this year, being well beaten by Elusive Pimpernel and then getting nailed late on by Azmeel In Dee Stakes last time; Deserves to take his chance in what should be an ideal test but up against it here.
Cape Blanco: Made his debut in conditions company as a 2 year old and made it a winning one, fighting on strongly to get the better of decent looking Balgioni; Unbeaten in 2 further starts last year, taking the eye when easily winning Tyros Stakes and then following up in Futurity Stakes; Form of his Dante Stakes win got an unbelievable boost when runner up Workforce (who is clearly better than that form) roped home with Derby in record time yesterday; While it’s sensible not to go overboard about that form, he will have needed the run abdly and can be expected to go close here.
Planteur: Won two out of three starts at two, and looked star material as he justified favouritism in the Prix Noailles, scoring a decisive victory over Rewilding on his first and only start of this season; Subsequent exploits of runner up gave form a real boost and should take a big hand in proceedings.
Vivre Libre: Well beaten on all starts to looks to be making up the numbers.
Ivory Blue: Has run two really solid races in Group 2 company this year, but has been beaten soundly by classic hopes Planteur and Silver Pond; That form gives him too much ground to be making up.
Lope De Vega: Won both his first starts in the style of an extremely smart colt, both by 2 and a half lengths before finish fourth in the Prix Jean Luc behind Siyoni; Reversed form with Aga Khan pair of colts (Rajasaman and Siyouni) when coming hard and late to win French 2,000 Guineas last time out, looking for all the world as if he’d stay or even improve for 10 furlongs; That is only Group 1 winning form in field and if he can drop in and get gaps from a horrid draw, every chance.
Simon De Montfort: Won first 2 races in great style last year before running well below best in Gran Criterium; Has doubled up in listed/group company this year, coming with late runs each time, and not to be underestimated for in / form team although impossible to know how he will run on his first start for Al Zarooni team.
Tip Toe: Has been beaten by both No Risk At All and Bekhebad, so makes little appeal here in better race than last time.
Viscount Nelson: Looked like a very good horse on his first few starts, especially when landing the Hurricane Run Stakes under a hand ride; Probably exposed for the faster ground in Champagne Stakes and lost the race at the start in the Breeders Cup; Showed what he could do given ideal condition’s when staying on into third in Irish 2,000 Guineas and with a likely strong pace and plenty of cover, no reason he cannot run big race again.
Celtic Celeb: Has run well on all three starts this year, and is a listed winner, but has been well beaten by Simon De Montfort and Silver Pond on last 2 starts so hard to see him making real impact.
Classic Hero: Only had 2 runs and has been beaten in conditions company twice, so not an appealing proposition.
Royal Bench: Mauled field on his return on heavy ground but even though this might be unfair on him, a more accurate reflection of his talents may be his sixth placed effort in the Criterium International last year.
Russian Dream: Might be a doubtful stayer and even then, behind on form.
Pain Perdu: Has been caught in the Final Strides by Simon De Montfort on both his last starts, and although booking of Frankie Dettori inspires confidence, he still has to step up a world on his best starts.
Lumineux: Got better with time last year and fact that he now had got in head in front makes him a major contender if you see improvement off the back of his runs last year, which have form linked with many of the major contenders.
No Risk At All: Is a dual listed winner and holds some good form, having had Tip Toe and major contender Behkabad behind him in Prix Omnium; Rider reportedly lost whip last time and Christophe Soumillion on board is a great booking, so not discounted yet although he has work to do.
VERDICT: A hugely competitive race which looks like one of the strongest renewal over the new distance, in a race which has produced some exceptional sorts in recent times (Dalakhani, Sharmadal, Vision D’Etat). Let’s just hope that everything gets a clear run. It’s proabably not wise to go overboard about the form of the Dante which CAPE BALNCO won, as the runner up and wide – margin derby runner up Workforce had everything go against him that day , but there is a lot of improvement to come from that run judging on stable form, he has a decent draw and should go well. There is a lot of big value in an open race here, with all bar Cape Blanco being 9/2. I like the sound of an each/way bet on LOPE DE VEGA, as he should make a bold bid to complete the French Guineas/Derby double, is trained by a master of the game and has an excellent jockey in the plate. I see only the draw being his undoing. VISCOUNT NELSON may be the Ballydoyle second string but he can’t be discounted and is too big at 25/1 for me. Ice Blue represents a trainer who has a brilliant record, won his trial in cosy fashion and has Ryan Moore on board. It was hard not to pick him. You could make compelling cases for Bekhebad, Planteur, Samalgan, Simon De Montfort and even Lumieux and No Risk At All, who have both benefited greatly with jockey bookings.
Prix Du Jockey Club ((3yo Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner €968,523 - 22 run
Win Pick: Cape Blanco
Each / Way picks: Lope De Vega, Viscount Nelson
Ice Blue: Showed an excellent turn of foot to beat Handsome Devil twice this season (Prix De Ferrieres /Prix Greffulhe ), and fact that he won more impressively last time confirms impression he is fast improving for a trainer bidding to win this for sixth time, and must be respected today with booking of Ryan Moore significant.
Bhekabad: Has always been held in high regard by connection who know how to win this race, and showed immense promise when unbeaten in three races at two, finishing last year with a comfortable victory in the Group 3 Prix des Chenes at Longchamp; Heavy ground and lack of fitness conspired against him when beaten into third in Prix Omnium II; Back to true form when last seen in Prix du Guiche, coasting into the straight, responding well and reversing form with rivals who beat him previously in the process; Must be given major chance here over trip he should like a lot.
Green Rock: Unbeaten/listed winner at two, only just getting better of fairly moderate field; Hard to know if he has improved in his 2 runs this year and has to contend with car park draw, not to mention facing Ice Blue and Handsome Devil.
Big Creek: Beaten in listed company and trashed in Italian Derby, so looks outclassed here.
Shamalagan: Quickly exposed as 2 year old and it had been same story as 3 year old, finishing well beaten sixth on both starts this year, before staying on third in French 2,000 Guineas last time; Needs more to win here and has to contend with bad draw and reverse form with winner Lope De Vega.
Prince Pretender: Has been beaten on 3 starts this year, none of them in graded company so up against it to say the lease.
Handsome Devil: Got the better of Rewilding on his first start but was disappointing on seasonal reappearance when beaten 11 lengths into fourth in conditions event; Has since redeemed himself with 2 seconds to leading contender Ice Blue but unlikely to reverse form today.
Dancing David: Very promising maiden win at Newbury considering that he was green from Pillar to post, making all to win impressively, and built on that again with a very good effort to finish fourth in Racing Post Trophy; Hasn’t quite built on that this year, being well beaten by Elusive Pimpernel and then getting nailed late on by Azmeel In Dee Stakes last time; Deserves to take his chance in what should be an ideal test but up against it here.
Cape Blanco: Made his debut in conditions company as a 2 year old and made it a winning one, fighting on strongly to get the better of decent looking Balgioni; Unbeaten in 2 further starts last year, taking the eye when easily winning Tyros Stakes and then following up in Futurity Stakes; Form of his Dante Stakes win got an unbelievable boost when runner up Workforce (who is clearly better than that form) roped home with Derby in record time yesterday; While it’s sensible not to go overboard about that form, he will have needed the run abdly and can be expected to go close here.
Planteur: Won two out of three starts at two, and looked star material as he justified favouritism in the Prix Noailles, scoring a decisive victory over Rewilding on his first and only start of this season; Subsequent exploits of runner up gave form a real boost and should take a big hand in proceedings.
Vivre Libre: Well beaten on all starts to looks to be making up the numbers.
Ivory Blue: Has run two really solid races in Group 2 company this year, but has been beaten soundly by classic hopes Planteur and Silver Pond; That form gives him too much ground to be making up.
Lope De Vega: Won both his first starts in the style of an extremely smart colt, both by 2 and a half lengths before finish fourth in the Prix Jean Luc behind Siyoni; Reversed form with Aga Khan pair of colts (Rajasaman and Siyouni) when coming hard and late to win French 2,000 Guineas last time out, looking for all the world as if he’d stay or even improve for 10 furlongs; That is only Group 1 winning form in field and if he can drop in and get gaps from a horrid draw, every chance.
Simon De Montfort: Won first 2 races in great style last year before running well below best in Gran Criterium; Has doubled up in listed/group company this year, coming with late runs each time, and not to be underestimated for in / form team although impossible to know how he will run on his first start for Al Zarooni team.
Tip Toe: Has been beaten by both No Risk At All and Bekhebad, so makes little appeal here in better race than last time.
Viscount Nelson: Looked like a very good horse on his first few starts, especially when landing the Hurricane Run Stakes under a hand ride; Probably exposed for the faster ground in Champagne Stakes and lost the race at the start in the Breeders Cup; Showed what he could do given ideal condition’s when staying on into third in Irish 2,000 Guineas and with a likely strong pace and plenty of cover, no reason he cannot run big race again.
Celtic Celeb: Has run well on all three starts this year, and is a listed winner, but has been well beaten by Simon De Montfort and Silver Pond on last 2 starts so hard to see him making real impact.
Classic Hero: Only had 2 runs and has been beaten in conditions company twice, so not an appealing proposition.
Royal Bench: Mauled field on his return on heavy ground but even though this might be unfair on him, a more accurate reflection of his talents may be his sixth placed effort in the Criterium International last year.
Russian Dream: Might be a doubtful stayer and even then, behind on form.
Pain Perdu: Has been caught in the Final Strides by Simon De Montfort on both his last starts, and although booking of Frankie Dettori inspires confidence, he still has to step up a world on his best starts.
Lumineux: Got better with time last year and fact that he now had got in head in front makes him a major contender if you see improvement off the back of his runs last year, which have form linked with many of the major contenders.
No Risk At All: Is a dual listed winner and holds some good form, having had Tip Toe and major contender Behkabad behind him in Prix Omnium; Rider reportedly lost whip last time and Christophe Soumillion on board is a great booking, so not discounted yet although he has work to do.
VERDICT: A hugely competitive race which looks like one of the strongest renewal over the new distance, in a race which has produced some exceptional sorts in recent times (Dalakhani, Sharmadal, Vision D’Etat). Let’s just hope that everything gets a clear run. It’s proabably not wise to go overboard about the form of the Dante which CAPE BALNCO won, as the runner up and wide – margin derby runner up Workforce had everything go against him that day , but there is a lot of improvement to come from that run judging on stable form, he has a decent draw and should go well. There is a lot of big value in an open race here, with all bar Cape Blanco being 9/2. I like the sound of an each/way bet on LOPE DE VEGA, as he should make a bold bid to complete the French Guineas/Derby double, is trained by a master of the game and has an excellent jockey in the plate. I see only the draw being his undoing. VISCOUNT NELSON may be the Ballydoyle second string but he can’t be discounted and is too big at 25/1 for me. Ice Blue represents a trainer who has a brilliant record, won his trial in cosy fashion and has Ryan Moore on board. It was hard not to pick him. You could make compelling cases for Bekhebad, Planteur, Samalgan, Simon De Montfort and even Lumieux and No Risk At All, who have both benefited greatly with jockey bookings.
Saturday 5 June 2010
Belmont Stakes 2010
11.32 Belmont
Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £370,370
Track (as of now, at 12:31GMT) Fast Distance - 1m4f Number of runners: 12
Picks: Ice Box (win), Stately Victor (each/way - show)
Dave In Dixie: Hasn't shown much since winning on debut at Del Mar; Although he was 2nd to Caracortado in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis that form has taken some heavy form knocks, while the distance might not suit him.
Spangled Star: Took six tries to win maiden and has been well beaten on both Graded tries since, so not making much appeal stepped up four furlongs from last time.
Uptowncharlybrown: Although he has struggled since going up in grade, he ran respectably when third last time in Lexington Stakes; Lot changed since then (new trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin and they are taking the blinkers off today) but stamina a major doubt and not really showing form to win this.
Make Music For Me: Although he was fourth in the Kentucky Derby, he was staying on past beaten horses and may have been flattered by that, not to mention fact that he still has to reverse form with Ice Box; Also doubtful stayer on breeding so while he has a lot going for him, some factors have to be taken on trust.
Fly Down: Long been considered for this race, and although he flopped badly on first graded start he has improved a ton since, trashing opposing Drosselmeyer (making him only runner to have won here, at this unique track); Also comes here having missed first 2 legs of Triple crown, making him fresher than most and with pedigree offering hope that he should stay well; Major contender.
Ice Box: Already proven in Grade 1 company, having won the Florida Derby and was making major ground at end of Kentucky Derby when last seen, having met with major interference beforehand; Way he ran in derby screamed that he was a 12 furlong horse and that may compensate for possible lack of pace; Form pick and should also handle possible track changes.
Drosselmeyer: May have been unlucky when third in Lousiana Derby but that race not working out well (major exception with winner) and hard to see him reversing form with Fly Down from last time.
Game On Dude: Only second start for yard when landing Grade 3 Lone Star Derby in decisive fashion but that form looks weak in this company and so do his other efforts; Trip might help but still asking a lot of him here, although it should be noted that stable had Lookin At Lucky to win Preakness.
Stately Victor: Looked badly exposed before fairly romping away with Blue Grass Stakes (one win from first 7); That form actually stands him in pretty good stead here (beat First Dude, Intractif and Make Music For Me, form lines which out him ahead of Fly Down and Ice Box if taken literally); Impossible to take that form literally as it was on synthetics and he suffered a bad reverse when eight I the Derby, taking his record on dirt to 0-4; However may well be worth another chance and does offer value.
Stay Put: Successful on the undercard of Kentucky Derby last time and while that confirms he could deal with a sloppy surface, that was in allowance company and he was 3/5 favourite; His other graded efforts leave a lot to be desired although if staying (suspect on pedigree to me) will close fast.
First Dude: Probably better than he showed when fifth in the Florida Derby and was only 1l behind Paddy O´Prado in the Blue Grass on synthetics; Continued improvement when setting a hot pace and still lasting out front in the Preakness, only to be beaten by Lookin At Lucky; Major chance although he has to go 3 furlongs longer today and had a tough race last time.
Interactif: Although he has raced mainly on synthetics and turf, he does go on dirt (won his maiden) wins in the Bourbon and Anticipation Stakes were impressively last year and his fourth in the Blue Grass was good when last seen; He should stay but hard to get a great deal of confidence.
VVERDICT: A race that has been opened by the absence of the other Triple Crown race winners. The strongest form in the race is held by ICE BOX for me and although a slower pace could prove his undoing, this longer trip will give him more time to close up. First Dude might get an easy lead and holds strong form too, but he had a tough race in the Preakness and stamina is a doubt. Fly Down make a lot of appeal having beaten First Dude, but I’ll pass him over in favour of the pick. Those who are looking at a big priced pick could do much worse than go for STATELY VICTOR, who has to be right there if handling the dirt for the first time today as everything else could potentially suit.
Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £370,370
Track (as of now, at 12:31GMT) Fast Distance - 1m4f Number of runners: 12
Picks: Ice Box (win), Stately Victor (each/way - show)
Dave In Dixie: Hasn't shown much since winning on debut at Del Mar; Although he was 2nd to Caracortado in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis that form has taken some heavy form knocks, while the distance might not suit him.
Spangled Star: Took six tries to win maiden and has been well beaten on both Graded tries since, so not making much appeal stepped up four furlongs from last time.
Uptowncharlybrown: Although he has struggled since going up in grade, he ran respectably when third last time in Lexington Stakes; Lot changed since then (new trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin and they are taking the blinkers off today) but stamina a major doubt and not really showing form to win this.
Make Music For Me: Although he was fourth in the Kentucky Derby, he was staying on past beaten horses and may have been flattered by that, not to mention fact that he still has to reverse form with Ice Box; Also doubtful stayer on breeding so while he has a lot going for him, some factors have to be taken on trust.
Fly Down: Long been considered for this race, and although he flopped badly on first graded start he has improved a ton since, trashing opposing Drosselmeyer (making him only runner to have won here, at this unique track); Also comes here having missed first 2 legs of Triple crown, making him fresher than most and with pedigree offering hope that he should stay well; Major contender.
Ice Box: Already proven in Grade 1 company, having won the Florida Derby and was making major ground at end of Kentucky Derby when last seen, having met with major interference beforehand; Way he ran in derby screamed that he was a 12 furlong horse and that may compensate for possible lack of pace; Form pick and should also handle possible track changes.
Drosselmeyer: May have been unlucky when third in Lousiana Derby but that race not working out well (major exception with winner) and hard to see him reversing form with Fly Down from last time.
Game On Dude: Only second start for yard when landing Grade 3 Lone Star Derby in decisive fashion but that form looks weak in this company and so do his other efforts; Trip might help but still asking a lot of him here, although it should be noted that stable had Lookin At Lucky to win Preakness.
Stately Victor: Looked badly exposed before fairly romping away with Blue Grass Stakes (one win from first 7); That form actually stands him in pretty good stead here (beat First Dude, Intractif and Make Music For Me, form lines which out him ahead of Fly Down and Ice Box if taken literally); Impossible to take that form literally as it was on synthetics and he suffered a bad reverse when eight I the Derby, taking his record on dirt to 0-4; However may well be worth another chance and does offer value.
Stay Put: Successful on the undercard of Kentucky Derby last time and while that confirms he could deal with a sloppy surface, that was in allowance company and he was 3/5 favourite; His other graded efforts leave a lot to be desired although if staying (suspect on pedigree to me) will close fast.
First Dude: Probably better than he showed when fifth in the Florida Derby and was only 1l behind Paddy O´Prado in the Blue Grass on synthetics; Continued improvement when setting a hot pace and still lasting out front in the Preakness, only to be beaten by Lookin At Lucky; Major chance although he has to go 3 furlongs longer today and had a tough race last time.
Interactif: Although he has raced mainly on synthetics and turf, he does go on dirt (won his maiden) wins in the Bourbon and Anticipation Stakes were impressively last year and his fourth in the Blue Grass was good when last seen; He should stay but hard to get a great deal of confidence.
VVERDICT: A race that has been opened by the absence of the other Triple Crown race winners. The strongest form in the race is held by ICE BOX for me and although a slower pace could prove his undoing, this longer trip will give him more time to close up. First Dude might get an easy lead and holds strong form too, but he had a tough race in the Preakness and stamina is a doubt. Fly Down make a lot of appeal having beaten First Dude, but I’ll pass him over in favour of the pick. Those who are looking at a big priced pick could do much worse than go for STATELY VICTOR, who has to be right there if handling the dirt for the first time today as everything else could potentially suit.
Friday 4 June 2010
Epsom Handicaps - Derby Day 2010
Epsom
1.40
Investec Vincent O'Brien Handicap (Class 2) (3YO only)
Winner £31,155
Picks: Verdant (win), Constant Contact (each/way)
Given his failure when really well backed It’s relieving to see that VERDANT is 2lbs better off with Doctor Shivago (third that day, albeit well beaten) from the London Gold Cup as although he’s much better than that and Sir Michael Stoute has won 3 of the last 6 renewals, he was disappointing that day. Using the power of hindsight, he should have been closer to the pace that day in a race it was hard to come from behind in.
Doctor Shivago was a good third that day and can go well here, for all that this could be tougher with Verdant coming here on better terms. It remains to be seen how close he sits next to a strong pace. Dandino is progressive and could easily go close here, although the form of his last win leaves a little to be desired.
The each/way selection is CONSTANT CONTACT, who’s likely to appreciate the step up to this trip, has winning course form, won last time out and has only been raised 3lbs for that, which gives him a fair chance in an open race. Our Joe Mac is also in with a huge chance based on his fourth in the Betfred Silver Bowl but he doesn’t appeal as as much stepped up in trip.
3.15 Epsom
Investec Entrepreneurial Class 'dash' (heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3YO plus)
Winner £46,732
Picks: Hawkeyethenoo, Indian Trail (each/way)
This is a devilishly competitive handicap where the pace will be quite unbelievable. Considering how fast they will go, the best chance you could give yourself might be to back horses that will pick up the pieces. 2 of those are HAWKEYETHENOO, for whom the booking of Kieren Fallon is a major coup. He’s also progressing quickly and won in a very similar scenario last time at Newmarket in a good race (although the bias favoured him a lot).
INDIAN TRAIL may be 10 years old and getting on a big but he;s the perfect type and has only one question mark against his name; Whether he can get the gaps. His mark is fair, his trainer has no peers when it comes to this kind of race, and he seems to have retained his ability.
Captain Dunne has been in good form since the turn of the year, with runs priming him for this assignment. He is 5lb higher in the weights and a middle draw may not be ideal though. I have quite a strong feeling that Jaconet could run better than recently but she’s going to have no end of horses up with her and she could end up chasing too strong a pace. Bertoliver is quick on his day and he looks a fairly-handicapped horse off bottom-weight, Moorhouse Lad and Glamorous Sprit look quite nicely handicapped if giving them the better of the doubt.
1.40
Investec Vincent O'Brien Handicap (Class 2) (3YO only)
Winner £31,155
Picks: Verdant (win), Constant Contact (each/way)
Given his failure when really well backed It’s relieving to see that VERDANT is 2lbs better off with Doctor Shivago (third that day, albeit well beaten) from the London Gold Cup as although he’s much better than that and Sir Michael Stoute has won 3 of the last 6 renewals, he was disappointing that day. Using the power of hindsight, he should have been closer to the pace that day in a race it was hard to come from behind in.
Doctor Shivago was a good third that day and can go well here, for all that this could be tougher with Verdant coming here on better terms. It remains to be seen how close he sits next to a strong pace. Dandino is progressive and could easily go close here, although the form of his last win leaves a little to be desired.
The each/way selection is CONSTANT CONTACT, who’s likely to appreciate the step up to this trip, has winning course form, won last time out and has only been raised 3lbs for that, which gives him a fair chance in an open race. Our Joe Mac is also in with a huge chance based on his fourth in the Betfred Silver Bowl but he doesn’t appeal as as much stepped up in trip.
3.15 Epsom
Investec Entrepreneurial Class 'dash' (heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3YO plus)
Winner £46,732
Picks: Hawkeyethenoo, Indian Trail (each/way)
This is a devilishly competitive handicap where the pace will be quite unbelievable. Considering how fast they will go, the best chance you could give yourself might be to back horses that will pick up the pieces. 2 of those are HAWKEYETHENOO, for whom the booking of Kieren Fallon is a major coup. He’s also progressing quickly and won in a very similar scenario last time at Newmarket in a good race (although the bias favoured him a lot).
INDIAN TRAIL may be 10 years old and getting on a big but he;s the perfect type and has only one question mark against his name; Whether he can get the gaps. His mark is fair, his trainer has no peers when it comes to this kind of race, and he seems to have retained his ability.
Captain Dunne has been in good form since the turn of the year, with runs priming him for this assignment. He is 5lb higher in the weights and a middle draw may not be ideal though. I have quite a strong feeling that Jaconet could run better than recently but she’s going to have no end of horses up with her and she could end up chasing too strong a pace. Bertoliver is quick on his day and he looks a fairly-handicapped horse off bottom-weight, Moorhouse Lad and Glamorous Sprit look quite nicely handicapped if giving them the better of the doubt.
Thursday 3 June 2010
Investec Diomed Stakes
1.40 Epsom
Investec Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: The Cheka (win, each/way)
Alexandaros: Class horse at his best, with his Lockinge Stakes second the highlight of his runs last year; Has seemingly retained that form judged on his Group 2 win a Group 2 second at Meydan in Dubai and this much easier than Dubai Duty free which he raced in last time; However his stable’s form is poor and he does have a 3lbs penalty.
Beauchamp Xeres: Pulled it all together when gaining a gutsy and tenacious win in the On The House Stakes last time, despite pulling all the way; Not to be underestimated her today, especially if settling better than last time.
Bushman: Lightly raced and good sort who has always been talented and finally put it together at pattern level last time; That effort puts him in with a chance here and he might just be getting it together, as he has form strong enough to take a hand.
Harrison George: Put in a number of good handicap efforts last term and has already improved on them with 2 wins this year, the first being a handicap romp off a mark of 95 and then a tight win in Conditions company last time; Would need to improve again and did make heavy weather of it last time, but can still make his mark felt in this company.
Mabait: Typically progressive Luca Cumani handicapper who was on a winning streak until being denied in unlucky fashion in last furlong of Victoria Cup; Unfortunate to have been stuck in middle of track and to have been carrying big topweight; Was always going to be in this company sooner than later and should go well.
Ordnance Row: Back to form last time when a decent second behind Bushman at listed level; Holds some form which is perfectly strong and entitles him to take a hand but hasn’t hit those heights in last 5 runs.
Penitent: Improving handicapper who looked group class all over when landing gamble in Lincoln handicap in March; Hasn’t been seen since but fair to say he deserves a shot at this level and more to come.
The Cheka: Looked exceptional on debut as a 2 year old and has only had 3 runs since; Only seen once as a 3 year old, getting better of very useful horse in Ashram here in Conditions Stakes; Ran a very promising race in Bet365 Mile but was a little disappointing in Lockinge last time; Was given a lot to do then and that effort still sets the standard here so major chance.
Classic Colori: Showed a lot of promise as a 2 year old (may have been well beaten in Group 3 but faced very different conditions); Made a nice reappearance In Lingfield listed race but probably didn’t run to that standard when fourth next time despite carrying an 8lbs penalty; Last in French Guineas, this much easier and another one who should go well.
VERDICT: A fiercely contested race where anything could win. Seeing as the last 2 runs of his set the standard, THE CHEKA is suggested to gain a third career win and open is account as a four year old. Next best for me are the progressive handicappers Mabait, who was always going to be seen at this level, and Penitent, for whom the booking of Johnny Murtagh suggests that the connections mean buisness.
Investec Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: The Cheka (win, each/way)
Alexandaros: Class horse at his best, with his Lockinge Stakes second the highlight of his runs last year; Has seemingly retained that form judged on his Group 2 win a Group 2 second at Meydan in Dubai and this much easier than Dubai Duty free which he raced in last time; However his stable’s form is poor and he does have a 3lbs penalty.
Beauchamp Xeres: Pulled it all together when gaining a gutsy and tenacious win in the On The House Stakes last time, despite pulling all the way; Not to be underestimated her today, especially if settling better than last time.
Bushman: Lightly raced and good sort who has always been talented and finally put it together at pattern level last time; That effort puts him in with a chance here and he might just be getting it together, as he has form strong enough to take a hand.
Harrison George: Put in a number of good handicap efforts last term and has already improved on them with 2 wins this year, the first being a handicap romp off a mark of 95 and then a tight win in Conditions company last time; Would need to improve again and did make heavy weather of it last time, but can still make his mark felt in this company.
Mabait: Typically progressive Luca Cumani handicapper who was on a winning streak until being denied in unlucky fashion in last furlong of Victoria Cup; Unfortunate to have been stuck in middle of track and to have been carrying big topweight; Was always going to be in this company sooner than later and should go well.
Ordnance Row: Back to form last time when a decent second behind Bushman at listed level; Holds some form which is perfectly strong and entitles him to take a hand but hasn’t hit those heights in last 5 runs.
Penitent: Improving handicapper who looked group class all over when landing gamble in Lincoln handicap in March; Hasn’t been seen since but fair to say he deserves a shot at this level and more to come.
The Cheka: Looked exceptional on debut as a 2 year old and has only had 3 runs since; Only seen once as a 3 year old, getting better of very useful horse in Ashram here in Conditions Stakes; Ran a very promising race in Bet365 Mile but was a little disappointing in Lockinge last time; Was given a lot to do then and that effort still sets the standard here so major chance.
Classic Colori: Showed a lot of promise as a 2 year old (may have been well beaten in Group 3 but faced very different conditions); Made a nice reappearance In Lingfield listed race but probably didn’t run to that standard when fourth next time despite carrying an 8lbs penalty; Last in French Guineas, this much easier and another one who should go well.
VERDICT: A fiercely contested race where anything could win. Seeing as the last 2 runs of his set the standard, THE CHEKA is suggested to gain a third career win and open is account as a four year old. Next best for me are the progressive handicappers Mabait, who was always going to be seen at this level, and Penitent, for whom the booking of Johnny Murtagh suggests that the connections mean buisness.
Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec
2.40 Epsom
Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies and Mares) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Reggane (win)
Anatara: Promising Godolphin recruit who romped home with German group event when last seen; Form of those in behind is solid and should go well but impossible to know how she’ll run on first UK start for a number of reasons, notably a 3lbs penalty.
Aspectoflove: Has made a good start to Godolphin carrier after showing a lot of promise in progressive season for John Oxx; A little disappointing last time considering that she held solid Group 3 form when fourth in listed event and will have to do better here.
First City: Lost her form a little bit last year but improved her last 2 starts, coming second to Alsace Lorraine (unlucky to have been caught on the line) and then Seta; Those efforts good but was behind Aspectoflove in listed contest and might have tough task on.
Patchattack: Made an improved effort with blinkers on when runner-up to Enticement in 1¼m listed contest in October; Hasn’t bettered that effort in four runs since and hard to fancy here.
Penny’s Gift: Would be major player on her earlier form last year( was closer to Goldikova than Reggane was) but she ended last year much below her best; Should strip fitter for return although she was behind Reggane, who is in the same boat.
Please Sing: Has a lot to do on her recent, form all of it listed level.
Reggane: Holds a very big chance on her Coronation Stakes 2nd, open to improvement with only 5 runs, and also well worth another chance having suffered from an inflamed trachea in the Prix Rotschild (Probably not recovered from that when sixth on her last run of 2009); May have been disappointing at Lingfield but drawn badly that day and fair to say she needed run, so worth another chance.
Sarah Park: Looks to have it all do based on her efforts on the all-weather and her comeback run this year, none of which inspire confidence.
Jira: Held her form really well throughout last season through group and sales races despite being quite exposed and ran a good race when fourth on last start of 2009; Repperance runs are good, and all of her form is solid but might not be at the level required.
VERDICT: Given that she was drawn out wide, and will come on a lot for the run, it could be well well worth giving REGGANE another chance here to show the form which saw her run second to Ghanaati in the Coronation Stakes, which would blitz these. Anatra could be anything following her German Group 3 romp but might be best left alone for a yard that isn’t totally on form and she does have a penalty to carry.
Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies and Mares) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Reggane (win)
Anatara: Promising Godolphin recruit who romped home with German group event when last seen; Form of those in behind is solid and should go well but impossible to know how she’ll run on first UK start for a number of reasons, notably a 3lbs penalty.
Aspectoflove: Has made a good start to Godolphin carrier after showing a lot of promise in progressive season for John Oxx; A little disappointing last time considering that she held solid Group 3 form when fourth in listed event and will have to do better here.
First City: Lost her form a little bit last year but improved her last 2 starts, coming second to Alsace Lorraine (unlucky to have been caught on the line) and then Seta; Those efforts good but was behind Aspectoflove in listed contest and might have tough task on.
Patchattack: Made an improved effort with blinkers on when runner-up to Enticement in 1¼m listed contest in October; Hasn’t bettered that effort in four runs since and hard to fancy here.
Penny’s Gift: Would be major player on her earlier form last year( was closer to Goldikova than Reggane was) but she ended last year much below her best; Should strip fitter for return although she was behind Reggane, who is in the same boat.
Please Sing: Has a lot to do on her recent, form all of it listed level.
Reggane: Holds a very big chance on her Coronation Stakes 2nd, open to improvement with only 5 runs, and also well worth another chance having suffered from an inflamed trachea in the Prix Rotschild (Probably not recovered from that when sixth on her last run of 2009); May have been disappointing at Lingfield but drawn badly that day and fair to say she needed run, so worth another chance.
Sarah Park: Looks to have it all do based on her efforts on the all-weather and her comeback run this year, none of which inspire confidence.
Jira: Held her form really well throughout last season through group and sales races despite being quite exposed and ran a good race when fourth on last start of 2009; Repperance runs are good, and all of her form is solid but might not be at the level required.
VERDICT: Given that she was drawn out wide, and will come on a lot for the run, it could be well well worth giving REGGANE another chance here to show the form which saw her run second to Ghanaati in the Coronation Stakes, which would blitz these. Anatra could be anything following her German Group 3 romp but might be best left alone for a yard that isn’t totally on form and she does have a penalty to carry.
Investec Woodcote Stakes
2.10 Epsom
Investec Woodcote Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £17,031
Picks; High Award(each/way), Premier Claret (win)
Approve: Really impressive winner last time, coming on leaps and bounds for his encouraging debut run; He was entitled to win as he did last time out though, and might need to take another step forward but he won’t be far away at all.
Casual Glimpse: Comes from top yard for 2 year olds who made a good debut at Goodwood first time out; Can be expected to improve majorly for that, form looks very strong for the grade and his experience of running downhill should stand him in good stead here; Must go close and looks likely type.
Dubawi Gold: Well backed and bolted up on debut, drawing away readily after travelling well for long way; Well worth try at this level and should go well although form of his win amounts to little more than the standard.
Foghorn Leghorn: Showed promise on his first two runs, but regressed judging on the distance that he was beaten by Dinkum Diamond compared to his maiden second and not easy to back on that basis.
High Award: Nice purchase with a high class pedigree who was sharp enough to be first winner of season at Curragh; Has been beaten twice since but each reversal came in a strong race for the time of year and is entitled to take a big hand in this, with Johnny Murtagh a positive booking.
Premier Clarets: A real trier who has run well on his first 2 runs, running into a good sort on debut and getting job done in good style last time; Will have to improve again to win this but chance of him doing so for in- form yard.
Saucy Buck: Consistent and tough sort who has run into several good types in her six runs so far; Got a deserved first success last time although she does look exposed on what she has shown so far and does look like the second string on jockey bookings.
Where’s Romeo: Beaten first time up but that can be put down towards conditions of that race, a weak on even for the grade under closer scrutiny; Won nicely last time out but will need to pull out more based on that form.
Singapore Lily: Showed plenty of guts to master Loves Theme at York and consdring that Knavesmire maidens are normally strong so she is far from discounted, although she is one of another who will pull out more.
VERDICT: Plenty of likely ones here so everything has a chance. It’s impossible to choose between HIGH AWARD & PREMIER CLARETS. High Award may have been beaten twice since his debut win but each reversal came in a strong race for the time of year and he is entitled to take a big hand in this, with Johnny Murtagh a positive booking. Just based on the fact that Richard Hannon could have sent many horses here, Premier Clarets gets a positive vote.
Investec Woodcote Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (2YO only)
Winner £17,031
Picks; High Award(each/way), Premier Claret (win)
Approve: Really impressive winner last time, coming on leaps and bounds for his encouraging debut run; He was entitled to win as he did last time out though, and might need to take another step forward but he won’t be far away at all.
Casual Glimpse: Comes from top yard for 2 year olds who made a good debut at Goodwood first time out; Can be expected to improve majorly for that, form looks very strong for the grade and his experience of running downhill should stand him in good stead here; Must go close and looks likely type.
Dubawi Gold: Well backed and bolted up on debut, drawing away readily after travelling well for long way; Well worth try at this level and should go well although form of his win amounts to little more than the standard.
Foghorn Leghorn: Showed promise on his first two runs, but regressed judging on the distance that he was beaten by Dinkum Diamond compared to his maiden second and not easy to back on that basis.
High Award: Nice purchase with a high class pedigree who was sharp enough to be first winner of season at Curragh; Has been beaten twice since but each reversal came in a strong race for the time of year and is entitled to take a big hand in this, with Johnny Murtagh a positive booking.
Premier Clarets: A real trier who has run well on his first 2 runs, running into a good sort on debut and getting job done in good style last time; Will have to improve again to win this but chance of him doing so for in- form yard.
Saucy Buck: Consistent and tough sort who has run into several good types in her six runs so far; Got a deserved first success last time although she does look exposed on what she has shown so far and does look like the second string on jockey bookings.
Where’s Romeo: Beaten first time up but that can be put down towards conditions of that race, a weak on even for the grade under closer scrutiny; Won nicely last time out but will need to pull out more based on that form.
Singapore Lily: Showed plenty of guts to master Loves Theme at York and consdring that Knavesmire maidens are normally strong so she is far from discounted, although she is one of another who will pull out more.
VERDICT: Plenty of likely ones here so everything has a chance. It’s impossible to choose between HIGH AWARD & PREMIER CLARETS. High Award may have been beaten twice since his debut win but each reversal came in a strong race for the time of year and he is entitled to take a big hand in this, with Johnny Murtagh a positive booking. Just based on the fact that Richard Hannon could have sent many horses here, Premier Clarets gets a positive vote.
Investec Surrey Stakes
4.50 Epsom
Investec Surrey Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £22,708
Picks: Kaptain Kirkup (win), Yaa Wayl (each/way at tissue prices)
Shakesperian: Tough reliable sort who gained big Goffs Million Mile win last season, holding off Marfach all the way to the line and was a respectable sixth to St Nicholas Abbey in Racing Post Trophy on last start for Mark Johnston; Has a good chance at this level although penalty could get in the way of things.
Lalyla’s Hero: Went on a real roll last year winning 4 races (including 2 listed events over seven furlongs); Switched yard after fourth at Chantilly on debut but ran poorly last time and has to give away a lot of weight.
Kaptin Kirkup: Looked ready for a step up to this level when comfortably winning 7f handicap at York last time, travelling well and asserting quickly; No reason why he cannot make serious impression at this level, and form of his latest win working out very well indeed.
Lucky General: Improved with racing last year (was good enough when breaking his maiden to be sent into Group company), landing Sales race on his last start; Very useful horse but last 2 runs have not been what he’s capable of and ran poorly last time.
Mon Cadeux: Won twice as 2 year old and made a decent debut on seasonal reappearance when third behind Society Rock in 6f listed contest; French Guineas was a step too much and sure to go well for all that he would probably like 6 furlongs more (should stay 7f nevertheless).
Yaa Wayl: Largely progressive horse who improved again to win handicap at Chester, for all that he was lucky to win that day considering wide draw of runner up (since been fourth in better event); Would need to find more but that seasonal debut and can be expected to go well for in – form yard.
Clairvoyance: Only beaten a length by Oaks favourite Avaite last year and hasn’t done much wrong since; Sent for home too soon considering that she was up with a strong gallop in competitive event last time; Drop to 7f will suit but needs to find more.
Curtains: Form does stand up to close scrutiny, as she was fifth in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last season and bumped into some decent types more than once; Landed 6f Brighton maiden as she was entitled to but needs to improve as she does look fairly exposed.
VERDICT: With the top 2 in Shakespearian and Layla’s Hero both having negative factors to overcome (Layla’s hero ran badly last time, Shakespearian will need the run and his yard is in poor form) this could be the perfect race for an unexposed horse to strike up. 2 of the most likely types to do are Yaa Wayl and KAPTIN KIRKUP, the former preferred because I fell that he achieved more when winning at York. The latter is suggested as a possible e/w bet.
Investec Surrey Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £22,708
Picks: Kaptain Kirkup (win), Yaa Wayl (each/way at tissue prices)
Shakesperian: Tough reliable sort who gained big Goffs Million Mile win last season, holding off Marfach all the way to the line and was a respectable sixth to St Nicholas Abbey in Racing Post Trophy on last start for Mark Johnston; Has a good chance at this level although penalty could get in the way of things.
Lalyla’s Hero: Went on a real roll last year winning 4 races (including 2 listed events over seven furlongs); Switched yard after fourth at Chantilly on debut but ran poorly last time and has to give away a lot of weight.
Kaptin Kirkup: Looked ready for a step up to this level when comfortably winning 7f handicap at York last time, travelling well and asserting quickly; No reason why he cannot make serious impression at this level, and form of his latest win working out very well indeed.
Lucky General: Improved with racing last year (was good enough when breaking his maiden to be sent into Group company), landing Sales race on his last start; Very useful horse but last 2 runs have not been what he’s capable of and ran poorly last time.
Mon Cadeux: Won twice as 2 year old and made a decent debut on seasonal reappearance when third behind Society Rock in 6f listed contest; French Guineas was a step too much and sure to go well for all that he would probably like 6 furlongs more (should stay 7f nevertheless).
Yaa Wayl: Largely progressive horse who improved again to win handicap at Chester, for all that he was lucky to win that day considering wide draw of runner up (since been fourth in better event); Would need to find more but that seasonal debut and can be expected to go well for in – form yard.
Clairvoyance: Only beaten a length by Oaks favourite Avaite last year and hasn’t done much wrong since; Sent for home too soon considering that she was up with a strong gallop in competitive event last time; Drop to 7f will suit but needs to find more.
Curtains: Form does stand up to close scrutiny, as she was fifth in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last season and bumped into some decent types more than once; Landed 6f Brighton maiden as she was entitled to but needs to improve as she does look fairly exposed.
VERDICT: With the top 2 in Shakespearian and Layla’s Hero both having negative factors to overcome (Layla’s hero ran badly last time, Shakespearian will need the run and his yard is in poor form) this could be the perfect race for an unexposed horse to strike up. 2 of the most likely types to do are Yaa Wayl and KAPTIN KIRKUP, the former preferred because I fell that he achieved more when winning at York. The latter is suggested as a possible e/w bet.
Investec Handicaps - Derby Festival
2.10 Epsom
Investec Mile (handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £18,693
Pick: Mull Of Kinnoulgh (each/way)
A tricky handicap. MULL OF KINNOLUGH has luckily kept his mark that he ran so well off (97) in the Lincoln and seeing as he got no run last time, the stable seems in decent form and the booking of Seamie Heffernan would give the impression that the yard means business, he gets the vote at an appealing forecast price of 10/1. Tartan Gigha bids for a follow up in this after his win last year and while he’s gone up 5lbs for his latest win he’s had a nice break and he should go well. Jordaura has been knocking on the door in recent weeks and again should go close if getting the breaks, and Vitznau is going to get involved despite his big weight.
3.25 Epsom
Investec Challenge (handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £24,924
Pick: Tartan Gigha (each/way)
The fact that TARTAN GIGHA has been eased in the weights gives him the vote, as the form of his placed efforts is very strong and he already acts on the course. Thin Red Line trashed a competitive field and while he’s been handicapped accordingly, he’s going to go close here. King’s Destiny is the main threat, as his win last time was most impressive.
Investec Mile (handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £18,693
Pick: Mull Of Kinnoulgh (each/way)
A tricky handicap. MULL OF KINNOLUGH has luckily kept his mark that he ran so well off (97) in the Lincoln and seeing as he got no run last time, the stable seems in decent form and the booking of Seamie Heffernan would give the impression that the yard means business, he gets the vote at an appealing forecast price of 10/1. Tartan Gigha bids for a follow up in this after his win last year and while he’s gone up 5lbs for his latest win he’s had a nice break and he should go well. Jordaura has been knocking on the door in recent weeks and again should go close if getting the breaks, and Vitznau is going to get involved despite his big weight.
3.25 Epsom
Investec Challenge (handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £24,924
Pick: Tartan Gigha (each/way)
The fact that TARTAN GIGHA has been eased in the weights gives him the vote, as the form of his placed efforts is very strong and he already acts on the course. Thin Red Line trashed a competitive field and while he’s been handicapped accordingly, he’s going to go close here. King’s Destiny is the main threat, as his win last time was most impressive.
Wednesday 2 June 2010
Investec Derby 2010
4.00 Epsom
Investec Derby (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £709,625
Pick: Jan Vermeer (win), Midas Touch (each/way)
Al Zir: Exploded into contention for top prizes with seamless demolitions of maiden field and two other rivals in conditions even as two; Ran a good race when third behind St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy but below that when ninth in Guineas; Reasons to think that he can do better but needs to improve a lot.
At First Sight: Has actually run very respectable races on both of his starts this season despite being used as a pacemaker on both occasions, coming third behind Midas Touch last time out and only getting beaten a nose by Puncher Clynch in Ballysax Stakes; Looks set to be pacemaker here.
Azmeel: Confirmed promise of his 2 year old form and second to Chabal when taking Chester's Dee stakes from Dancing David in good style last time out; Should improve from being trained to the minute for this race but will need to do so, for all the he’s perfectly capable of running a big race.
Bright Horizon: Broke his maiden in decent style when only just getting up in Curragh maiden last time but looks out of his depth.
Bullet Train: Lot to like about his one and only run last season (quietly fancied for Derby off the back of that) and was still green when collared in Newbury conditions event; Very impressive winner of Lingfield Derby Trial, leading all the way, finding more when asked and handling track in great style; More to come from him both mentally and physically, so will enter the shake - up.
Buzzword: Had a decent start to his career with a second and a win to his name, both at Windsor; Form has been well franked on both occasions and made eye-catching late progress to be 2nd behind runaway winner D**k Turpin in Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood; Was a bit disappointing when beaten by Shakespearian in the Solario, and put that right with good Group 3 win at Longchamp; Unable to confirm superiority over Siyouni in Group 1 and although he came out with credit when fifth in Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and fourth in the French 2,000 Guineas, he has a lot on his plate again here, for all that he is consistent.
Coordinated Cut: 16/1 chance for Derby before he made his easy winning debut at Doncaster St Ledger Festival and faced a different test altogether when well beaten second last in the RP Trophy (left Peter Chapple Hyam after); Undeniably impressive when coming to win sales race by a short head on debut after being practically stopped 2 out; Ran a good third in Dante but unlikely to reverse form with Workforce from that.
Hot Prospect: Worth another chance and shouldn’t be judged on his listed failure last time as a 2 year old; Beat the Autumn Stakes winner (form not great) previously and made a good return in good sales race but well beaten by Bullet Train last time.
Jan Vermeer: Looked a possible Derby horse on first couple of starts before romping home in decent renewal of Criterium International; Couldn’t have been more pleasing when winning Gallinule Stakes on return, hacking up under a 7lbs penalty; Should improve a lot for that and comes here with favourite’s chance.
Midas Touch; Progressive in three runs at two and ended the season with a decent fourth in Criterium International, well behind Jan Vermeer; Made a very good return when landing Derrinstown Derby Trial (which has supplied 3 winners, a second and 2 close thirds in the last 10 years); Second was a little reluctant, third went off too fast and fourth was a non – event but he had to make up 10 lengths in 3 furlongs and did it all in 2:02.50; Noting how bad stable form was at that time that was excellent run and he should love the step up to 10 furlongs.
Rewilding: Graduated from Andre Fabre's stable with flying colours when taking a Cocked Hat Stakes in great style visually and supplemented for this race off the back of that; While he impressed that day he was fully entitled to win as he did and will need to have come on a ton for experience if he’s to play a big part here (has been beaten in Group 2 company).
Ted Spread: Pulled out more and more to win Chester Vase in gutsy fashion, showing that he stays and is likely to handle this undulating track; Likeable and game sort who should come on for the run but form of that race has taken a few knocks.
Workforce: Made highly promising start to career when 6-length winner of 7f maiden at Goodwood on only start, quickening through from rear; That form has been boosted majorly since by second winning big event at Newmarket; May have been well beaten in Dante takes but winner does not go here, bit slipped out of his mouth and he will improve both mentally and physically for the run, so as good a chance as any.
VERDICT: A wide open Derby. The Ballydoyle team hold a strong hand in this, which could possibly have been stronger had it not been for the injury of St Nicholas Abbey and the deflection of Cape Blanco. The only group 1 winner in the field is JAN VERMEER, and he confirmed that promise when bolting up despite lack of fitness (had suffered training Setback) and a 7lbs penalty in the Gallinule Stakes. Admittedly the form of those in behind was nothing much to shout about, but he’ll come on for that and has a favourite’s chance. The Derrinstown Derby Trial has supplied 3 winners, a second and 2 close thirds in the last 10 years and based on that, MIADAS TOUCH is a good each/way bet. Admittedly the second was a little reluctant, third went off too fast and fourth was a non – event but he had to make up 10 lengths in 3 furlongs and did it all in 2:02.50, so noting how bad the stable form was at that time that was excellent run and he should love the step up to 12 furlongs. Workforce is miles better than his run in the Dante where his bit slipped and he didn’t know what to do, and with the winner not running here he must be given a big shout. Bullet Train was impressive in the Lingfield Derby trial leading all the way, finding more when asked and handling track in great style, and seeing as there is more to come from him both mentally and physically, he will enter the shake - up. While Rewilding impressed that day he was fully entitled to win as he did and will need to have come on a ton for experience if he’s to play a big part here (has been beaten in Group 2 company). Outsiders who could sing a surprise include Ted Spread, a gutsy winner of the Chester Vase, who won’t go down without a fight, Azmeel, an improving colt who will be trained to the minute and maybe Buzzword, a consistent an tough colt who’s worth his place here and was staying on very hard in the French 2,000 Guineas.
Investec Derby (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £709,625
Pick: Jan Vermeer (win), Midas Touch (each/way)
Al Zir: Exploded into contention for top prizes with seamless demolitions of maiden field and two other rivals in conditions even as two; Ran a good race when third behind St Nicholas Abbey in the Racing Post Trophy but below that when ninth in Guineas; Reasons to think that he can do better but needs to improve a lot.
At First Sight: Has actually run very respectable races on both of his starts this season despite being used as a pacemaker on both occasions, coming third behind Midas Touch last time out and only getting beaten a nose by Puncher Clynch in Ballysax Stakes; Looks set to be pacemaker here.
Azmeel: Confirmed promise of his 2 year old form and second to Chabal when taking Chester's Dee stakes from Dancing David in good style last time out; Should improve from being trained to the minute for this race but will need to do so, for all the he’s perfectly capable of running a big race.
Bright Horizon: Broke his maiden in decent style when only just getting up in Curragh maiden last time but looks out of his depth.
Bullet Train: Lot to like about his one and only run last season (quietly fancied for Derby off the back of that) and was still green when collared in Newbury conditions event; Very impressive winner of Lingfield Derby Trial, leading all the way, finding more when asked and handling track in great style; More to come from him both mentally and physically, so will enter the shake - up.
Buzzword: Had a decent start to his career with a second and a win to his name, both at Windsor; Form has been well franked on both occasions and made eye-catching late progress to be 2nd behind runaway winner D**k Turpin in Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood; Was a bit disappointing when beaten by Shakespearian in the Solario, and put that right with good Group 3 win at Longchamp; Unable to confirm superiority over Siyouni in Group 1 and although he came out with credit when fifth in Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and fourth in the French 2,000 Guineas, he has a lot on his plate again here, for all that he is consistent.
Coordinated Cut: 16/1 chance for Derby before he made his easy winning debut at Doncaster St Ledger Festival and faced a different test altogether when well beaten second last in the RP Trophy (left Peter Chapple Hyam after); Undeniably impressive when coming to win sales race by a short head on debut after being practically stopped 2 out; Ran a good third in Dante but unlikely to reverse form with Workforce from that.
Hot Prospect: Worth another chance and shouldn’t be judged on his listed failure last time as a 2 year old; Beat the Autumn Stakes winner (form not great) previously and made a good return in good sales race but well beaten by Bullet Train last time.
Jan Vermeer: Looked a possible Derby horse on first couple of starts before romping home in decent renewal of Criterium International; Couldn’t have been more pleasing when winning Gallinule Stakes on return, hacking up under a 7lbs penalty; Should improve a lot for that and comes here with favourite’s chance.
Midas Touch; Progressive in three runs at two and ended the season with a decent fourth in Criterium International, well behind Jan Vermeer; Made a very good return when landing Derrinstown Derby Trial (which has supplied 3 winners, a second and 2 close thirds in the last 10 years); Second was a little reluctant, third went off too fast and fourth was a non – event but he had to make up 10 lengths in 3 furlongs and did it all in 2:02.50; Noting how bad stable form was at that time that was excellent run and he should love the step up to 10 furlongs.
Rewilding: Graduated from Andre Fabre's stable with flying colours when taking a Cocked Hat Stakes in great style visually and supplemented for this race off the back of that; While he impressed that day he was fully entitled to win as he did and will need to have come on a ton for experience if he’s to play a big part here (has been beaten in Group 2 company).
Ted Spread: Pulled out more and more to win Chester Vase in gutsy fashion, showing that he stays and is likely to handle this undulating track; Likeable and game sort who should come on for the run but form of that race has taken a few knocks.
Workforce: Made highly promising start to career when 6-length winner of 7f maiden at Goodwood on only start, quickening through from rear; That form has been boosted majorly since by second winning big event at Newmarket; May have been well beaten in Dante takes but winner does not go here, bit slipped out of his mouth and he will improve both mentally and physically for the run, so as good a chance as any.
VERDICT: A wide open Derby. The Ballydoyle team hold a strong hand in this, which could possibly have been stronger had it not been for the injury of St Nicholas Abbey and the deflection of Cape Blanco. The only group 1 winner in the field is JAN VERMEER, and he confirmed that promise when bolting up despite lack of fitness (had suffered training Setback) and a 7lbs penalty in the Gallinule Stakes. Admittedly the form of those in behind was nothing much to shout about, but he’ll come on for that and has a favourite’s chance. The Derrinstown Derby Trial has supplied 3 winners, a second and 2 close thirds in the last 10 years and based on that, MIADAS TOUCH is a good each/way bet. Admittedly the second was a little reluctant, third went off too fast and fourth was a non – event but he had to make up 10 lengths in 3 furlongs and did it all in 2:02.50, so noting how bad the stable form was at that time that was excellent run and he should love the step up to 12 furlongs. Workforce is miles better than his run in the Dante where his bit slipped and he didn’t know what to do, and with the winner not running here he must be given a big shout. Bullet Train was impressive in the Lingfield Derby trial leading all the way, finding more when asked and handling track in great style, and seeing as there is more to come from him both mentally and physically, he will enter the shake - up. While Rewilding impressed that day he was fully entitled to win as he did and will need to have come on a ton for experience if he’s to play a big part here (has been beaten in Group 2 company). Outsiders who could sing a surprise include Ted Spread, a gutsy winner of the Chester Vase, who won’t go down without a fight, Azmeel, an improving colt who will be trained to the minute and maybe Buzzword, a consistent an tough colt who’s worth his place here and was staying on very hard in the French 2,000 Guineas.
Oaks 2010
4.15 Epsom
Investec Oaks (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £198,695
Picks: Rumoush (win), Remember When (e/w)
Akdarena: Performed at a useful level last year but step up in trip and visor have been the making of her this season, leading all the way to hold off 99 rated Unity before routing good field of high class older fillies in Blue Wind Stakes, galloping field into the ground; Very real contender although she has to step up to 10f and it is unknown if she can lead for 12 furlongs, if she gets an easy lead.
Avaite: Created good impression when winning all 3 starts, none stronger than when she won the Muisora by a nose, having got no run from 2f out but still getting up in last furlong; Must hold every chance on that form, which gives her good chance of getting trip (slight breeding doubts).
Awe Inspring: Useful filly although she has taken some time to come to hand; Hacked up in Gowran Park race last time out and while she could and probably will improve, this looks like a step up too far in class.
Bikini Babe: Very head – strong as a 2 year old,, and was better than the bare form of her good results last year; Showed she had trained on with 2 very good runs in Meydan; Has been brushed aside by Colts in Classic trial and fillies in Musidora, so has a lot on her plate here.
Cabaret: Showed impressive speed and forwardness to fairly bolt up in Group 3 last season, before having no chance when saddle slipped in Prix Marcel Boussac; Stable are in better form now then when she flopped in Musidora but hard to say that she would have beaten Avaite and has something to prove now.
Celidh House: Impressed when overcoming tardy start to win 1m maiden at Nottingham on her only start at 2, and showed serious promise for connections who had Oaks winner Look Here 3 years ago; Suffered for racing to close to very strong pace when third in Oaks trial but was getting 3lbs from Timepiece (second that day) and needs to do a lot to win here.
Champagnelifestyle: Created really nice impression when winning first time up as a juvenile, beating a subsequent winner in the process before she bombed in Rockfel Stakes; Closing pretty fast on Cheshire Oaks winner Gertrude Bell last time but will need to improve an awful lot despite positive reports from connections.
Gertude Bell: Very game and quite progressive filly who built again on cosy reappearance win when holding off 3 horses in last furlong to win Cheshire Oaks; Could well improve again for longer trip nut will really need to do so.
Lady Lupus: Efforts looks moderate on basis and looks set to make the pace.
Marie De Medici: Posted a good effort to come runner – up in a Group 3 at Deauville after her maiden win; Then good fourth but well behind Timepiece; Since finished ahead of her and won listed event but this much harder and Timepiece got no run that day.
Meezenah: Behind 2 pattern winner on her two juvenile starts and improved no end for step up to 12 furlongs when trashing maiden field by 9 lengths; Impressive for all that was there were only 3 rivals in opposition and she was entitled to win as she liked.
Remember When: Still a maiden but has posted very promising efforts on all of her starts, first of all when coming second in strong maiden and then when running a good race on debut to come third behind Chinese White in good listed event; Took that form to new level when close fourth in Irish 1,000 Guineas, form which is arguably strongest in this field given the strong pace and class opposition; Sure to improve for experience and must go close here.
Rumoush: Impeccably-bred filly (half-sister to Ghanaati and Mawatheeq) who made a promising winning debut over 1m at Lingfield last November and reappeared very impressive winning debut in the Fielden Stakes (1m1f) beating reopposing Marie De Medici and Timepiece; Performed very well in 1,000 Guineas, finishing a strong second on her side due to massive track bias; That form very strong seeing as Music Show was close third in Irish 1,000 Guineas (just ahead of Remember When) and she would have gone very close to winning had that not been the case; Step up to 1m4f should really help and major chance today.
Shajahaa: Romped home in 10f Sandown maiden on only start so far, earning quotes of 10 – 14/1 for this; Obvious ability but will need to overcome inexperienced and form of that Sandown maiden not overly strong.
Snow Fairy: Improved for step up to 10 furlongs when showing impressive turn of foot to land the Height Of Fashion Stakes, beating the previous Oaks hope Pipette; That in considered impressive enough to Supplement and is capable of making her mark felt in good company, but this might be a step too far.
Timepiece: Shaped really well on her first 2 starts and was made Oaks favourite on back of her listed win over 1m; Shouldn’t be judged on her fourth in the Fielden Stakes as she was hampered at a crucial time but blew her chance to prove worthiness for favouritism when second behind Dyna Waltz in Lingfield Oaks trial last time(that horse does not repose); May have chased overly strong pace that day and is better than bare form but she will have to step up and has a lot to prove.
VERDICT: A competitive and tricky renewal of the Oaks, and there’s no doubting that Henry Cecil has the commanding hand here. The well regarded Timepice is better than her runs this season would suggest but she blew a good chance to win last time (should hold form with Ceilidh House) and might be a shade under-priced here, for all that she could still win. Avaite impressed hugely when overcoming a troubled passage to win the Musidora and that makes her a worthy favourite here, for all that might not have been the strongest renewal. However, looking in depth at the race, it’s noticeable that only 2 fillies in the top 5 have Group 1 form, those being RUMOUSH, an excellent 7th in the 1,000 Guineas when stuck on the far side, and REMEMBER WHEN, a very good fourth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas who should improve for the longer trip and experience. The former is the win bet, the latter is the e/w bet. Gertrude Bell is a likeable and improving filly (who should confirm Cheshire Oaks form) but will need to improve again, and Shajahaa and Meezean beat weakish fields in their maiden wins. Adkarena is a seriously fast improving filly but might be reliant on getting a lead (which will not be easy) and then she will have to lead for the whole 12 furlongs, a stiff test at any level.
Investec Oaks (Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £198,695
Picks: Rumoush (win), Remember When (e/w)
Akdarena: Performed at a useful level last year but step up in trip and visor have been the making of her this season, leading all the way to hold off 99 rated Unity before routing good field of high class older fillies in Blue Wind Stakes, galloping field into the ground; Very real contender although she has to step up to 10f and it is unknown if she can lead for 12 furlongs, if she gets an easy lead.
Avaite: Created good impression when winning all 3 starts, none stronger than when she won the Muisora by a nose, having got no run from 2f out but still getting up in last furlong; Must hold every chance on that form, which gives her good chance of getting trip (slight breeding doubts).
Awe Inspring: Useful filly although she has taken some time to come to hand; Hacked up in Gowran Park race last time out and while she could and probably will improve, this looks like a step up too far in class.
Bikini Babe: Very head – strong as a 2 year old,, and was better than the bare form of her good results last year; Showed she had trained on with 2 very good runs in Meydan; Has been brushed aside by Colts in Classic trial and fillies in Musidora, so has a lot on her plate here.
Cabaret: Showed impressive speed and forwardness to fairly bolt up in Group 3 last season, before having no chance when saddle slipped in Prix Marcel Boussac; Stable are in better form now then when she flopped in Musidora but hard to say that she would have beaten Avaite and has something to prove now.
Celidh House: Impressed when overcoming tardy start to win 1m maiden at Nottingham on her only start at 2, and showed serious promise for connections who had Oaks winner Look Here 3 years ago; Suffered for racing to close to very strong pace when third in Oaks trial but was getting 3lbs from Timepiece (second that day) and needs to do a lot to win here.
Champagnelifestyle: Created really nice impression when winning first time up as a juvenile, beating a subsequent winner in the process before she bombed in Rockfel Stakes; Closing pretty fast on Cheshire Oaks winner Gertrude Bell last time but will need to improve an awful lot despite positive reports from connections.
Gertude Bell: Very game and quite progressive filly who built again on cosy reappearance win when holding off 3 horses in last furlong to win Cheshire Oaks; Could well improve again for longer trip nut will really need to do so.
Lady Lupus: Efforts looks moderate on basis and looks set to make the pace.
Marie De Medici: Posted a good effort to come runner – up in a Group 3 at Deauville after her maiden win; Then good fourth but well behind Timepiece; Since finished ahead of her and won listed event but this much harder and Timepiece got no run that day.
Meezenah: Behind 2 pattern winner on her two juvenile starts and improved no end for step up to 12 furlongs when trashing maiden field by 9 lengths; Impressive for all that was there were only 3 rivals in opposition and she was entitled to win as she liked.
Remember When: Still a maiden but has posted very promising efforts on all of her starts, first of all when coming second in strong maiden and then when running a good race on debut to come third behind Chinese White in good listed event; Took that form to new level when close fourth in Irish 1,000 Guineas, form which is arguably strongest in this field given the strong pace and class opposition; Sure to improve for experience and must go close here.
Rumoush: Impeccably-bred filly (half-sister to Ghanaati and Mawatheeq) who made a promising winning debut over 1m at Lingfield last November and reappeared very impressive winning debut in the Fielden Stakes (1m1f) beating reopposing Marie De Medici and Timepiece; Performed very well in 1,000 Guineas, finishing a strong second on her side due to massive track bias; That form very strong seeing as Music Show was close third in Irish 1,000 Guineas (just ahead of Remember When) and she would have gone very close to winning had that not been the case; Step up to 1m4f should really help and major chance today.
Shajahaa: Romped home in 10f Sandown maiden on only start so far, earning quotes of 10 – 14/1 for this; Obvious ability but will need to overcome inexperienced and form of that Sandown maiden not overly strong.
Snow Fairy: Improved for step up to 10 furlongs when showing impressive turn of foot to land the Height Of Fashion Stakes, beating the previous Oaks hope Pipette; That in considered impressive enough to Supplement and is capable of making her mark felt in good company, but this might be a step too far.
Timepiece: Shaped really well on her first 2 starts and was made Oaks favourite on back of her listed win over 1m; Shouldn’t be judged on her fourth in the Fielden Stakes as she was hampered at a crucial time but blew her chance to prove worthiness for favouritism when second behind Dyna Waltz in Lingfield Oaks trial last time(that horse does not repose); May have chased overly strong pace that day and is better than bare form but she will have to step up and has a lot to prove.
VERDICT: A competitive and tricky renewal of the Oaks, and there’s no doubting that Henry Cecil has the commanding hand here. The well regarded Timepice is better than her runs this season would suggest but she blew a good chance to win last time (should hold form with Ceilidh House) and might be a shade under-priced here, for all that she could still win. Avaite impressed hugely when overcoming a troubled passage to win the Musidora and that makes her a worthy favourite here, for all that might not have been the strongest renewal. However, looking in depth at the race, it’s noticeable that only 2 fillies in the top 5 have Group 1 form, those being RUMOUSH, an excellent 7th in the 1,000 Guineas when stuck on the far side, and REMEMBER WHEN, a very good fourth in the Irish 1,000 Guineas who should improve for the longer trip and experience. The former is the win bet, the latter is the e/w bet. Gertrude Bell is a likeable and improving filly (who should confirm Cheshire Oaks form) but will need to improve again, and Shajahaa and Meezean beat weakish fields in their maiden wins. Adkarena is a seriously fast improving filly but might be reliant on getting a lead (which will not be easy) and then she will have to lead for the whole 12 furlongs, a stiff test at any level.
Coronation Cup
2.45 Epsom
Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £127,732
Pick: Fame And Glory (win), Jukebox Jury (e/w)
Bashikrov: Win off 95 last time is seemingly peak of his powers and form isn’t good enough to win this.
Calvaryman: Enjoyed a progressive 2009, winning three times (including the Prix Niel and Grand Prix De Paris) before coming third in the Arc; Yet to reach same heights for new stable (Saeed Bin Suroor) but he comes here as a major player.
Dixie Music: Lightly raced sort who has performed admirably despite being used as pacemaker on his last 3 starts; Looks set for same role here.
Fame And Glory: Continuing where he left off at end of his 3 year old season (ran very well against Sea The Stars in last year’s Derby and Irish Champion Stakes, denied a clear run in Arc and over the top when sixth in Champion Stakes) with seamless wins over 10f in the Moorsbridge and Tattersalls Gold Cup; Although this is tougher test than both it’s hard to argue that he will not be up to the task.
Jukebox Jury: Made giant strides last season when winning the Grand Prix De Deauville and the Preis Von Europa, before finishing a very close second in the Canadian International; Improved a lot from below par run in Dubai when landing Jockey Club Stakes cosily and is likely type for a race like this.
South Easter: Made giant strides last year, getting beat by high class sort on debut before winning Dee Stakes and getting injury when sixth in King Edwards Stakes; Won in easy style on AW in Magnolia Stakes but possibly a little disappointing when third behind Debussy and Lez Fazzani last time and will need to improve.
Youmzain: Beaten only a nose in this last year and held his form well thought last season w, coming second in the Arc again(ignore his run in Hong Kong as he was snatched up around the turn); However ran worse than usual when behind Cavalryman (and infront of Jukebox Jury) and has something to prove despite more positive reports from home.
Clowance: Only had 6 runs but has run well in Group 1 company on three of those occasions, coming fourth in a strong oaks, coming second in the Irish St Ledger and also fourth in the Prix Royal Oak, shaping like a possible top quality stayer in the making; Ran very poorly on seasonal reappearance and might not be suited by this race, which is a very hard renewal to win anyway.
High Heeled: Would be a major player on the pick of her efforts, and it must be remembered that she was fourth in the Oaks here last year, a good fifth in the Nassau Stakes, and good third in the Pride Stakes and a wide margin winner of the St Simon Stakes; A game filly who is not to be underestimated.
Sariska: Was the stand out filly of last year with impressive Musidora /Oaks double before completing an Oaks double with consummate ease when landing the Irish Oaks; Beaten in Yorkshire Oaks by top class Dar Re Mi before staying on third in Champion Stakes; Reappeared with great win in Middleton Stakes which will have her spot on for this; More rain the better.
VERDICT: A pretty high class and generally well contested renewal. You can all expect Youmzain, Calvaryman, and even Clowance to be better than they have showed previously but I think that this might be between the 2 horses who ran so well in last year’s Classics held here, in FAME AND GLORY and Sariska. Fame And Glory had a fruitful season last year and looked better than ever when landing the Tattersalls Gold Cup by a wide margin last time, 12f will do him no harm although this is a better race. I have no doubt that Sariska will win Group 1’s this season and she is the main threat here. There are plenty of options for an e/w bet here too. Cavalryman’s Arc third would make him a shoe in for the frame but since switching to Godolphin he hasn’t shown that and his Sheema Classic effort was a little disappointing considering he was fit and his stable seem to be under a cloud. Youmzain appeals a lot at 8/1 but his comeback run was poorer than usual and you are chancing that he bounces back, although positive stable reports give a lot of hope. JUKEBOX JURY was progressing into a top horse last year and can go very well here.
Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £127,732
Pick: Fame And Glory (win), Jukebox Jury (e/w)
Bashikrov: Win off 95 last time is seemingly peak of his powers and form isn’t good enough to win this.
Calvaryman: Enjoyed a progressive 2009, winning three times (including the Prix Niel and Grand Prix De Paris) before coming third in the Arc; Yet to reach same heights for new stable (Saeed Bin Suroor) but he comes here as a major player.
Dixie Music: Lightly raced sort who has performed admirably despite being used as pacemaker on his last 3 starts; Looks set for same role here.
Fame And Glory: Continuing where he left off at end of his 3 year old season (ran very well against Sea The Stars in last year’s Derby and Irish Champion Stakes, denied a clear run in Arc and over the top when sixth in Champion Stakes) with seamless wins over 10f in the Moorsbridge and Tattersalls Gold Cup; Although this is tougher test than both it’s hard to argue that he will not be up to the task.
Jukebox Jury: Made giant strides last season when winning the Grand Prix De Deauville and the Preis Von Europa, before finishing a very close second in the Canadian International; Improved a lot from below par run in Dubai when landing Jockey Club Stakes cosily and is likely type for a race like this.
South Easter: Made giant strides last year, getting beat by high class sort on debut before winning Dee Stakes and getting injury when sixth in King Edwards Stakes; Won in easy style on AW in Magnolia Stakes but possibly a little disappointing when third behind Debussy and Lez Fazzani last time and will need to improve.
Youmzain: Beaten only a nose in this last year and held his form well thought last season w, coming second in the Arc again(ignore his run in Hong Kong as he was snatched up around the turn); However ran worse than usual when behind Cavalryman (and infront of Jukebox Jury) and has something to prove despite more positive reports from home.
Clowance: Only had 6 runs but has run well in Group 1 company on three of those occasions, coming fourth in a strong oaks, coming second in the Irish St Ledger and also fourth in the Prix Royal Oak, shaping like a possible top quality stayer in the making; Ran very poorly on seasonal reappearance and might not be suited by this race, which is a very hard renewal to win anyway.
High Heeled: Would be a major player on the pick of her efforts, and it must be remembered that she was fourth in the Oaks here last year, a good fifth in the Nassau Stakes, and good third in the Pride Stakes and a wide margin winner of the St Simon Stakes; A game filly who is not to be underestimated.
Sariska: Was the stand out filly of last year with impressive Musidora /Oaks double before completing an Oaks double with consummate ease when landing the Irish Oaks; Beaten in Yorkshire Oaks by top class Dar Re Mi before staying on third in Champion Stakes; Reappeared with great win in Middleton Stakes which will have her spot on for this; More rain the better.
VERDICT: A pretty high class and generally well contested renewal. You can all expect Youmzain, Calvaryman, and even Clowance to be better than they have showed previously but I think that this might be between the 2 horses who ran so well in last year’s Classics held here, in FAME AND GLORY and Sariska. Fame And Glory had a fruitful season last year and looked better than ever when landing the Tattersalls Gold Cup by a wide margin last time, 12f will do him no harm although this is a better race. I have no doubt that Sariska will win Group 1’s this season and she is the main threat here. There are plenty of options for an e/w bet here too. Cavalryman’s Arc third would make him a shoe in for the frame but since switching to Godolphin he hasn’t shown that and his Sheema Classic effort was a little disappointing considering he was fit and his stable seem to be under a cloud. Youmzain appeals a lot at 8/1 but his comeback run was poorer than usual and you are chancing that he bounces back, although positive stable reports give a lot of hope. JUKEBOX JURY was progressing into a top horse last year and can go very well here.
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