Goodwood 3.10
Festival Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £22,708
Pick: Palavacini (win)
Chock A Block: Still lightly raced as he begins his older horse campaign (only had 5 runs) and opened his account for Godolphin at Newmarket last October in this grace (race slowly run); Heavy ground to blame when he bombed behind quite good opposition last time but still has to improve.
Laaheb: Won 3 out of his 6 last year, including a decent listed event that has worked out OK since; Built on that again when coming third behind Redwood and Glass Harmonium, and will be hard to beat for a red – hot yard.
Class Is Class: Expensive to follow in handicaps and went off far too quickly in first-time visor at York last time, so easy enough to take on at this level.
Drunken Sailor: Was improving steadily last season and evelation for new yard at the Dubai Carnival, winning twice and coming fifth on last UAE start; Perfectly capable of making impact on this level (just as good on turf as AW) for in form yard.
Indian Days: C&D winner who has held his own in this sort of company; did well when facing tough task under top weight last time when finding only the improving Imposing too good in competitive York handicap last time; Not sure that form alone would bring him into it but game horse none the less.
Palavacini: Proved to be very useful at good level last year, landing the Strensall Stakes at York (for which he escapes a penalty); Suffered for a lot of negative things on comeback at Newmarket, seeing way too much daylight before switching sides and hanging so much that he wasn’t even tried with in last 2 furlongs; Commendable effort to be beaten less than 3 furlongs in circumstances and if over that (should improve for race as well) must hold major chance.
Safari Sunup: Although he has proved consistent on most surfaces, he might be biting off more than he can chew here.
Soul City: Height of two-year-old campaign featured a Listed win at Deauville and a Group 3 success at Longchamp by beating the Jim Bolger-trained pair Gan Amhras and Intense Focus in the 7f Goffs Million; Hasn’t reached those heights sine and hard to fancy here.
Traffic Guard: Has some serious form and if he could get back his career best second to New Approach, he would come under some serious consideration; Also did well when slamming useful horses at Windsor last summer; Got squeeezzed up so better than result says last time but would want longer trip ideally.
VERDICT: A very competitive listed event where plenty care going to play a part. The likes of Indian Days and Drunken Sailor have to be respected, while Safari Sunup is consistent and Chock A Block may not have shown his best yet, but I think that this race might revolve around Laaheb and PALAVACINI, the latter getting the vote due to him having won a Group 3 last year and having very valid excuses of only being beaten 3 lengths by a decent pair of horses in Sri Putra and Tranquil Tiger.
Sunday 30 May 2010
Saturday 29 May 2010
E.B.F. Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes
3.00 Haydock
E.B.F. Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes (Fillies' Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £22,708
Picks: Barshiba (win), Polly’s Mark (e/w)
Barshiba: Consistent mare who’s run series of cracking races and last season no exception, especially when upped back to 1m4f for her last 2 starts, which include a Yorkshire Oaks among an impressive rout of the Plantation Stud Stakes field under a hefty penalty; Although she was given race by Duncan’s consistent hanging last month she will strip fitter and all looks in palace for another bold show.
Lez Fazzani: Had an excellent 2009 and came back in good form when second to Debussy in Huxley Stakes last time; That form gives her chance but no easy task here and may get competition for the lead.
All Annalena: Runner-up twice in 1¼m listed races last summer but really well held on first start in Britain for new yard 4 weeks ago and easy to oppose in this company.
Becqu Adoree: Made up in a very good performer last year and stepped up to another level when excellent sixth in Prix Vermille at Longchamp, beaten only 2 lengths; Huge chance on that from for new yard here.
Cassique Lady: Best 2009 efforts do not threaten the pick in this line-up, despite being a listed winner.
Flame Of Gibraltar: Generally acquitted herself with credit in decent company since getting off the mark in 10f Lingfield maiden in June, but form falls short of what will be required.
Polly’s Mark: Greatly improved last year, winning a listed event in good style, doing it well in the Shergar Cup and also only just getting nabbed on the line in listed company when last seen in 2009; Brilliant effort first time out to be fourth behind Harbinger in strong renewal of John Porter and improvement can be expected for fitness, so big player.
Rosika: Won 3 times last year prior to good second in listed race at Lingfield final outing (poorly placed); Will have more to come and worth a stab at this level but tricky opposition today.
Three Moons: 2-y-o form was solid but made it to the track just twice last season, winning maiden at Folkestone before coming runner-up in a decent listed contest; Off the track for a year, so is entitled to improvement on her good run last time out, although she will need to find a little bit more in this field.
Victoria Montoya: Nice mare who runs her race more often than not but up against it even if back to form in first-time visor.
VERDICT: A tough race where any one of 6 could win, so I’m going to split stakes. BARSHIBA ran away with the Lancashire Oaks over C&D last summer and is likely to make a bold bid, having proved her well-being when winning at Ascot 3 weeks ago. POLLY’S MARK is too big at 6/1 for e/w value.
E.B.F. Joan Westbrook Pinnacle Stakes (Fillies' Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £22,708
Picks: Barshiba (win), Polly’s Mark (e/w)
Barshiba: Consistent mare who’s run series of cracking races and last season no exception, especially when upped back to 1m4f for her last 2 starts, which include a Yorkshire Oaks among an impressive rout of the Plantation Stud Stakes field under a hefty penalty; Although she was given race by Duncan’s consistent hanging last month she will strip fitter and all looks in palace for another bold show.
Lez Fazzani: Had an excellent 2009 and came back in good form when second to Debussy in Huxley Stakes last time; That form gives her chance but no easy task here and may get competition for the lead.
All Annalena: Runner-up twice in 1¼m listed races last summer but really well held on first start in Britain for new yard 4 weeks ago and easy to oppose in this company.
Becqu Adoree: Made up in a very good performer last year and stepped up to another level when excellent sixth in Prix Vermille at Longchamp, beaten only 2 lengths; Huge chance on that from for new yard here.
Cassique Lady: Best 2009 efforts do not threaten the pick in this line-up, despite being a listed winner.
Flame Of Gibraltar: Generally acquitted herself with credit in decent company since getting off the mark in 10f Lingfield maiden in June, but form falls short of what will be required.
Polly’s Mark: Greatly improved last year, winning a listed event in good style, doing it well in the Shergar Cup and also only just getting nabbed on the line in listed company when last seen in 2009; Brilliant effort first time out to be fourth behind Harbinger in strong renewal of John Porter and improvement can be expected for fitness, so big player.
Rosika: Won 3 times last year prior to good second in listed race at Lingfield final outing (poorly placed); Will have more to come and worth a stab at this level but tricky opposition today.
Three Moons: 2-y-o form was solid but made it to the track just twice last season, winning maiden at Folkestone before coming runner-up in a decent listed contest; Off the track for a year, so is entitled to improvement on her good run last time out, although she will need to find a little bit more in this field.
Victoria Montoya: Nice mare who runs her race more often than not but up against it even if back to form in first-time visor.
VERDICT: A tough race where any one of 6 could win, so I’m going to split stakes. BARSHIBA ran away with the Lancashire Oaks over C&D last summer and is likely to make a bold bid, having proved her well-being when winning at Ascot 3 weeks ago. POLLY’S MARK is too big at 6/1 for e/w value.
Timeform Jury Stakes 2010
Haydock 3.00
Timeform Jury Stakes (Registered As The John Of Gaunt Stakes) (Group 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Main Aim (win), Dream Eater (e/w)
Autumun Blades: Has made great strides but may struggle at this higher level.
Doncaster Rover: Ran two good races in Group/Listed company before a below par seventh last year on ground too soft for his liking; Stepped his form up to a new level when fourth in Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes, but extra distance and race fitness likely to suit Main Aim more.
Dream Eater: Excellent 5th in 2,000 Guineas 2 years ago before then finishing 3rd in the Jersey Stakes, suffering a setback afterwards; Has continued to run some consistent races at much higher level than this and wind operation should really help him; Has good record fresh.
Dream Eater: Smart and consistent with several good efforts last season, not least when only beaten a head by Palalvacini at York international meeting last year; Good form but likely to struggle against horses of this class at this trip.
Georgebernardshaw: Placed in Group and listed races last year but high head carriage stopped him from winning and didn’t look any better for new yard when fourth in Listed event last time.
Lord Shanakill: Good miler for Karl Burke, having landed Prix Jean Prat three starts ago and coming home fifth in the Sussex; Looked just as good for new Cecil yard when third in Sussex and will take all the beating.
Lovelace: Regained some of best form, having won last 2 starts including a listed event; Slightly flattered by winning distance that day as Mia’s Boy was interfered with but will need to step up anyway.
Main Aim: Started last year on a real streak, winning this very race, beating Arabian Gleam, Asset and Tariq. Good effort when second in Group 1 July Cup, but amiss on next 2 starts last year; Closing very fast in Duke Of York Stakes last time and likely to make bold bid to win this race.
Mia’s Boy: Runner up in 3 listed events this season and unlucky to be beaten at finish by Lovelace last time and this race is hard to win.
VERDICT: MAIN AIM will prove very difficult to beat if in the same form as when bolting up in this event last year, and his promising return suggests he's getting back on track after bombing out badly towards the end of last year. He should hold Doncaster Rover for a longer trip and race – fitness. Lord Shanakaill is the main danger for sure. DREAM EATER is an attractive e/w bet with the potential to improve a lot after a wind operation and he goes very well fresh.
Timeform Jury Stakes (Registered As The John Of Gaunt Stakes) (Group 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Main Aim (win), Dream Eater (e/w)
Autumun Blades: Has made great strides but may struggle at this higher level.
Doncaster Rover: Ran two good races in Group/Listed company before a below par seventh last year on ground too soft for his liking; Stepped his form up to a new level when fourth in Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes, but extra distance and race fitness likely to suit Main Aim more.
Dream Eater: Excellent 5th in 2,000 Guineas 2 years ago before then finishing 3rd in the Jersey Stakes, suffering a setback afterwards; Has continued to run some consistent races at much higher level than this and wind operation should really help him; Has good record fresh.
Dream Eater: Smart and consistent with several good efforts last season, not least when only beaten a head by Palalvacini at York international meeting last year; Good form but likely to struggle against horses of this class at this trip.
Georgebernardshaw: Placed in Group and listed races last year but high head carriage stopped him from winning and didn’t look any better for new yard when fourth in Listed event last time.
Lord Shanakill: Good miler for Karl Burke, having landed Prix Jean Prat three starts ago and coming home fifth in the Sussex; Looked just as good for new Cecil yard when third in Sussex and will take all the beating.
Lovelace: Regained some of best form, having won last 2 starts including a listed event; Slightly flattered by winning distance that day as Mia’s Boy was interfered with but will need to step up anyway.
Main Aim: Started last year on a real streak, winning this very race, beating Arabian Gleam, Asset and Tariq. Good effort when second in Group 1 July Cup, but amiss on next 2 starts last year; Closing very fast in Duke Of York Stakes last time and likely to make bold bid to win this race.
Mia’s Boy: Runner up in 3 listed events this season and unlucky to be beaten at finish by Lovelace last time and this race is hard to win.
VERDICT: MAIN AIM will prove very difficult to beat if in the same form as when bolting up in this event last year, and his promising return suggests he's getting back on track after bombing out badly towards the end of last year. He should hold Doncaster Rover for a longer trip and race – fitness. Lord Shanakaill is the main danger for sure. DREAM EATER is an attractive e/w bet with the potential to improve a lot after a wind operation and he goes very well fresh.
Sandy Lane Stakes
2.30 Haydock
J.W. Lees Sandy Lane Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £22,708
Pick: Quarrel (win, e/w)
Angel’s Pursuit: Hard to say if he improved off his Mill Reef Stakes second when winning listed contest in receipt of 3lbs from Society Rock but he will improve for having had that run and should go well under a penalty here.
Corporal Maddox: Did well at 2, coming third in the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and winning a minor event since; Good effort even though he may have been flattered by his proximity to Society Rock first time out but bombed next time and no excuses been offered.
Lalyla’s Hero: Went on a real roll last year winning 4 races (including 2 listed events over this trip); Switching yard after fourth last time at Chantilly but this trip will suit him much more and not to be discounted.
Mister Manannan: Very consistent last season and seemed better than ever when all in 6f listed race at Chantilly on seasonal reappearance; Ran a dire, dire race after shooting to the lead last time and if back to best holds a favourite’s chance but after that run last time unbackable for me.
Khattab: Coughed on first start in Group company after an easy C&D distance win and seeing as he is much better than bare result of that, should not be left out of calculations; Probably better than he is rated at the moment.
Quarrel: Created a good impression when winning both of first starts over 6f, making most to win at Chester next time out; Ran a very good race when third in the Mill Reef and although he was behind Angel’s Pursuit, he does have a 3lbs pull and should go close today.
Regnier: Has improved from race to race, following up Musselburgh maiden win by chasing home Capercaillie in Class 2 conditions event there; Proved his 4th in the Norfolk Stakes was no fluke when filling out the same position in the July Stakes; Useful on all that evidence but help by Corporal Madddox on return last month.
Bewitched: Took giant leap forward and left 2 year old form miles behind when romping home in competitive Naas handicap earlier in the month; Promises to do even better but this is another hike in class.
Rain Fail: One of a number of Mark Johnston horses who have romped away on debut and could be anything; This is a very well contested race to make step up into.
VERDICT: A well contested race for the level. Mister Mananan was backed like a big run was expected when favourite for a French group 3, but ran abysmally and is unbackabale for me despite being a leading contender if bouncing back. Bewitched should come on again from her win first time out but is stepping into a good race to say the least now. Angel’s Pursuit’s Mill Reef form and listed win look good but QUARREL could be able to reverse those placings off 3lbs better terms.
J.W. Lees Sandy Lane Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £22,708
Pick: Quarrel (win, e/w)
Angel’s Pursuit: Hard to say if he improved off his Mill Reef Stakes second when winning listed contest in receipt of 3lbs from Society Rock but he will improve for having had that run and should go well under a penalty here.
Corporal Maddox: Did well at 2, coming third in the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and winning a minor event since; Good effort even though he may have been flattered by his proximity to Society Rock first time out but bombed next time and no excuses been offered.
Lalyla’s Hero: Went on a real roll last year winning 4 races (including 2 listed events over this trip); Switching yard after fourth last time at Chantilly but this trip will suit him much more and not to be discounted.
Mister Manannan: Very consistent last season and seemed better than ever when all in 6f listed race at Chantilly on seasonal reappearance; Ran a dire, dire race after shooting to the lead last time and if back to best holds a favourite’s chance but after that run last time unbackable for me.
Khattab: Coughed on first start in Group company after an easy C&D distance win and seeing as he is much better than bare result of that, should not be left out of calculations; Probably better than he is rated at the moment.
Quarrel: Created a good impression when winning both of first starts over 6f, making most to win at Chester next time out; Ran a very good race when third in the Mill Reef and although he was behind Angel’s Pursuit, he does have a 3lbs pull and should go close today.
Regnier: Has improved from race to race, following up Musselburgh maiden win by chasing home Capercaillie in Class 2 conditions event there; Proved his 4th in the Norfolk Stakes was no fluke when filling out the same position in the July Stakes; Useful on all that evidence but help by Corporal Madddox on return last month.
Bewitched: Took giant leap forward and left 2 year old form miles behind when romping home in competitive Naas handicap earlier in the month; Promises to do even better but this is another hike in class.
Rain Fail: One of a number of Mark Johnston horses who have romped away on debut and could be anything; This is a very well contested race to make step up into.
VERDICT: A well contested race for the level. Mister Mananan was backed like a big run was expected when favourite for a French group 3, but ran abysmally and is unbackabale for me despite being a leading contender if bouncing back. Bewitched should come on again from her win first time out but is stepping into a good race to say the least now. Angel’s Pursuit’s Mill Reef form and listed win look good but QUARREL could be able to reverse those placings off 3lbs better terms.
Achilles Stakes
2.00 Haydock
sports360.co.uk Achilles Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £22,708
Pick: High Standing
Inxile: Looked back to best when landing Cammidge Trophy and ran great race in Duke Of York Stakes last time, blitzing away until fading in the final furlong; Big chance back at this level but penalty will get in way of things.
Elnawin: Lightly raced colt that still has plenty of ability, as shown by his 2 seconds this season; Was arguably the best handicapped horse in the race when second behind progressive Blue Jack2 starts ago; Conditions Stakes third given him chance but 5f might not suit as much as 6f.
High Standing: Switched to new yard and instantly made strong impression in relatively minor company both starts for new yard this year, at Doncaster and Goodwood; Stepped up miles on that when coming third in Sprint Cup and fourth in Didadem Stakes and must take all the beating although 6f suits him better.
Invincible Lad: Better than bare result on reappearance but, even so looks to have far too much on his plate here.
Judd Street: Reasonable chance if last run is behind him but even so would need to improve a fair bit; Fallon is positive jockey booking.
Impressible: Yet to find her form after a great 2009 with trail blazing tactics but even pick of those efforts leave him with a lot to find; Soft ground would give her a bigger chance though.
Nollaig Shona: Fair maiden second but looks outclassed here.
Rose Blossom: Impressive wins either side of her Queen Mary 7th, which is easily forgiven (raced impossible pace to keep that day) and ran respectably in Flying Childers at end of season; Blitzed rivals over 5f at York last time and would have to be a major player here.
VERDICT: HIGH STANDING wants 6f rather than 5f, but he was making up into a top level sprinter last season and he has won first time out in the last two seasons when asked. His 2 runs in Group 1 and 2 company make him the one top beat. Inxile is a threat dropping down from Group 2 company but his penalty will get in the way, and Rose Blossom should go close.
sports360.co.uk Achilles Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £22,708
Pick: High Standing
Inxile: Looked back to best when landing Cammidge Trophy and ran great race in Duke Of York Stakes last time, blitzing away until fading in the final furlong; Big chance back at this level but penalty will get in way of things.
Elnawin: Lightly raced colt that still has plenty of ability, as shown by his 2 seconds this season; Was arguably the best handicapped horse in the race when second behind progressive Blue Jack2 starts ago; Conditions Stakes third given him chance but 5f might not suit as much as 6f.
High Standing: Switched to new yard and instantly made strong impression in relatively minor company both starts for new yard this year, at Doncaster and Goodwood; Stepped up miles on that when coming third in Sprint Cup and fourth in Didadem Stakes and must take all the beating although 6f suits him better.
Invincible Lad: Better than bare result on reappearance but, even so looks to have far too much on his plate here.
Judd Street: Reasonable chance if last run is behind him but even so would need to improve a fair bit; Fallon is positive jockey booking.
Impressible: Yet to find her form after a great 2009 with trail blazing tactics but even pick of those efforts leave him with a lot to find; Soft ground would give her a bigger chance though.
Nollaig Shona: Fair maiden second but looks outclassed here.
Rose Blossom: Impressive wins either side of her Queen Mary 7th, which is easily forgiven (raced impossible pace to keep that day) and ran respectably in Flying Childers at end of season; Blitzed rivals over 5f at York last time and would have to be a major player here.
VERDICT: HIGH STANDING wants 6f rather than 5f, but he was making up into a top level sprinter last season and he has won first time out in the last two seasons when asked. His 2 runs in Group 1 and 2 company make him the one top beat. Inxile is a threat dropping down from Group 2 company but his penalty will get in the way, and Rose Blossom should go close.
Wednesday 26 May 2010
Rest Of Sandown
Posted an actual preview as promised, but not able to do any other races, so I'll sum up what I like and why. By the way, the meeting is free to air
National Stakes (for 2 year olds, 6.25) over 5f - Cape To Rio
Speedy and useful sort won has won cosily both starts, which were the same 2 taken by Moinesur Chevalier before he won this. Arguably headed for better things and has the best form in the book.
Brigadier Gerard Stakes (For 4 year old and over, 7.45) over 1m2f - Glass Harmonium
Brought along steadily last year and showed what he could do when landing Hampton Court Stakes at Ascot and put in best performance yet when landing Gordon Richards Stakes least month. Run was needed so there should be improvement to come and that will make him hard to beat. The same goes from Sri Putra but I have the feeling that we haven't seen the best of Glass Harmonium.
Heron Stakes (3 year olds, 8.20) over 1m14y - No Hubris (e/w)
Fallen Idol must have a favourite's chance based on his clear cut Esher Cup win and Group 1 entries, but whether he should be 4/5 on his own is debatable to me. NO HUBRIS took the eye when winning a small conditions race on his last start and considering that he was giving away weight to the runner up and should improve a lot for that run, is much better than a 15/2 shot. He was good enough to run in the Coventry and he was much better than his sixth behind some sorts that are good enough to win this at least.
National Stakes (for 2 year olds, 6.25) over 5f - Cape To Rio
Speedy and useful sort won has won cosily both starts, which were the same 2 taken by Moinesur Chevalier before he won this. Arguably headed for better things and has the best form in the book.
Brigadier Gerard Stakes (For 4 year old and over, 7.45) over 1m2f - Glass Harmonium
Brought along steadily last year and showed what he could do when landing Hampton Court Stakes at Ascot and put in best performance yet when landing Gordon Richards Stakes least month. Run was needed so there should be improvement to come and that will make him hard to beat. The same goes from Sri Putra but I have the feeling that we haven't seen the best of Glass Harmonium.
Heron Stakes (3 year olds, 8.20) over 1m14y - No Hubris (e/w)
Fallen Idol must have a favourite's chance based on his clear cut Esher Cup win and Group 1 entries, but whether he should be 4/5 on his own is debatable to me. NO HUBRIS took the eye when winning a small conditions race on his last start and considering that he was giving away weight to the runner up and should improve a lot for that run, is much better than a 15/2 shot. He was good enough to run in the Coventry and he was much better than his sixth behind some sorts that are good enough to win this at least.
Henry II Stakes 2010
7.10 Sandown
Blue Square Henry II Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £56,770
Pick: Saptapadi (e/w)
Balkan Knight: Performed will in a few races over trips but missed all of 2009 and has not group win; That makes him impossible to recommend.
Eradicate: Progressed over the jumps, landing a neat Huntingdon event and then Swinton Hurdle; Stamina could be put to good use here and not one to be discounted although is flat form is of no real use here.
Furmigadelaguista: Improved lots for Karl Burke last year but made an inauspicious start to career for new stable when well beaten fifth at Doncaster and this is a big step up in class.
Illustrious Blue: Admirable campaigner who has excellent record at Goodwood (6 wins there) and improved for first try over this trip when winning Sagaro Stakes at Ascot; That form decent but this is harder.
Akmal: Ran on a real streak in 2009, getting 7 wins and landing 2m Group 3 at Newmarket on final start; Hasn’t run up to same form this year, but excuses on first start and if he can settle better, would have to be a major player here.
Darley Sun: Couldn’t stop improving last year, romping away with 2m handicap at Ascot before only just losing out to Askar Tau in Lonsdale Cup and then hacking up in Cesarawitch on final start; Since been switched to Goldophin and if he was to be fit and ready here, would have to take all the beating.
Montaff: Showed some very nice form early on last season and run with credit in races won by Sabotage, Opinion Poll and Illustrious Blue this year, but no reason why he should beat that trio this time; Temperamental sort too.
Opinion Poll: Progressive sort who fairly romped away with big 12f handicap last year at Ascot and is even better with cut in the ground, as he showed when looking like Group horse all over when cantering away at Nottingham last time; Can defiantly make mark in this company but needs to improve again.
Sabotage: Actually improved for switch to Godolphin in Dubai, improving when upped to 2m when winning at Meydan in February; Possibly undone by drop back in trip last time when finishing well and should put in big effort.
Saptapadi: Lightly raced 4 year old, having run very well in Group company on 2 out of his 4 starts last year; Returned with good win in Doncaster maiden and should really relish this step up in trip; Unexposed and could be anything.
VERDICT: A mix of noted improvers versus some old stagers. Darley Sun’s form last year would entitle him to go very close here and he’s a worthy favourite, although he could need the run here and it’s hard to know how he’ll react to switching stables. Sabotage holds some really good from and should also be right there. It’s worth noting that he was Frankie Dettori’s original pick. Opinion Poll is an improving horse and should be right in the shake up, but has to prove that he can improve again. SAPTAPADI has been quite highly tried, and having had only 4 runs is sure to improve. His 2 runs last year suggest that he is capable of racing to a decent level and he should like this step up in trip.
Blue Square Henry II Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £56,770
Pick: Saptapadi (e/w)
Balkan Knight: Performed will in a few races over trips but missed all of 2009 and has not group win; That makes him impossible to recommend.
Eradicate: Progressed over the jumps, landing a neat Huntingdon event and then Swinton Hurdle; Stamina could be put to good use here and not one to be discounted although is flat form is of no real use here.
Furmigadelaguista: Improved lots for Karl Burke last year but made an inauspicious start to career for new stable when well beaten fifth at Doncaster and this is a big step up in class.
Illustrious Blue: Admirable campaigner who has excellent record at Goodwood (6 wins there) and improved for first try over this trip when winning Sagaro Stakes at Ascot; That form decent but this is harder.
Akmal: Ran on a real streak in 2009, getting 7 wins and landing 2m Group 3 at Newmarket on final start; Hasn’t run up to same form this year, but excuses on first start and if he can settle better, would have to be a major player here.
Darley Sun: Couldn’t stop improving last year, romping away with 2m handicap at Ascot before only just losing out to Askar Tau in Lonsdale Cup and then hacking up in Cesarawitch on final start; Since been switched to Goldophin and if he was to be fit and ready here, would have to take all the beating.
Montaff: Showed some very nice form early on last season and run with credit in races won by Sabotage, Opinion Poll and Illustrious Blue this year, but no reason why he should beat that trio this time; Temperamental sort too.
Opinion Poll: Progressive sort who fairly romped away with big 12f handicap last year at Ascot and is even better with cut in the ground, as he showed when looking like Group horse all over when cantering away at Nottingham last time; Can defiantly make mark in this company but needs to improve again.
Sabotage: Actually improved for switch to Godolphin in Dubai, improving when upped to 2m when winning at Meydan in February; Possibly undone by drop back in trip last time when finishing well and should put in big effort.
Saptapadi: Lightly raced 4 year old, having run very well in Group company on 2 out of his 4 starts last year; Returned with good win in Doncaster maiden and should really relish this step up in trip; Unexposed and could be anything.
VERDICT: A mix of noted improvers versus some old stagers. Darley Sun’s form last year would entitle him to go very close here and he’s a worthy favourite, although he could need the run here and it’s hard to know how he’ll react to switching stables. Sabotage holds some really good from and should also be right there. It’s worth noting that he was Frankie Dettori’s original pick. Opinion Poll is an improving horse and should be right in the shake up, but has to prove that he can improve again. SAPTAPADI has been quite highly tried, and having had only 4 runs is sure to improve. His 2 runs last year suggest that he is capable of racing to a decent level and he should like this step up in trip.
Keep The Faith!!
Nice to see that I have had 6 clicks on the Web Charts - Will post a few previews for the big meets this week and and any strong fancies if I can't find the time to post properly.
Saturday 22 May 2010
Tattersalls Gold Cup 2010
3.40 Curragh
Tattersalls Gold Cup (group 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €139,500
Pick: Fame And Glory
Cutlass Bay: Took his unbeaten record to 5 wins from 5 start when coming away to win the Prix Ganay very nicely from Prix L’Opera winner Shalanaya, especially when you consider how much he hung when making his challenge; Looked superb that day but stable switch to Saeed Bin Suroor yard (0-18 in recent weeks) does pose questions.
Dixie Music: Lightly raced sort who has performed admirably despite being used as pacemaker on his last 2 starts; Looks set for same role here.
Fame And Glory: Had a very good 3 year old season, winning the Ballysax and Derrinstown Derby trials seamlessly before coming second to legendary Sea The Stars in big race; Then won Irish Derby and came excellent second in Irish Champion Stakes; Last 2 runs of last season should be discounted as he got no run in Arc and was over the top in Champion Stakes; Proved much fitter for reappearance run when landing Mooresbridge Stakes easily earlier and could take this on way to big things this season.
Halicarnassus: Tough as nuts horse who got yet another win in Dubai with a valiant all-the-way success over 1½m at Meydan in February; Something amiss next time but well beaten on both starts in Group company this season.
Recharge: Coming back to something like his career – best Irish Derby run but even then he has something to find on Fame And Glory, and similar story when well beaten by him in Moorsbridge Stakes; Now 5lbs worse off.
Chinese White: Better than ever last season, and returned in stunning form when trashing She’s Our Mark easily at Gowran on comeback; Will give her running but has some very tough opponents to beat.
VERDICT: A small but pretty select field for a race which has thrown up the likes of Daylami, Montjeu, Fantastic Light, Duke Of Marmalade and Hurricane Run in the past few years alone. Cutlass Bay was seriously impressive when landing the Ganay last time, beating a Group 1 winner whilst hanging all the way. Although he looked superb that day but stable switch to Saeed Bin Suroor yard (0-18 in recent weeks) does pose questions. FAME AND GLORY did very well considering that he had to contend with Sea The Stars last season and having been wound up by his first 2 runs, he can take this going onto bigger things. Don’t count Chinese White and Recharge as there to make up the numbers.
Tattersalls Gold Cup (group 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner €139,500
Pick: Fame And Glory
Cutlass Bay: Took his unbeaten record to 5 wins from 5 start when coming away to win the Prix Ganay very nicely from Prix L’Opera winner Shalanaya, especially when you consider how much he hung when making his challenge; Looked superb that day but stable switch to Saeed Bin Suroor yard (0-18 in recent weeks) does pose questions.
Dixie Music: Lightly raced sort who has performed admirably despite being used as pacemaker on his last 2 starts; Looks set for same role here.
Fame And Glory: Had a very good 3 year old season, winning the Ballysax and Derrinstown Derby trials seamlessly before coming second to legendary Sea The Stars in big race; Then won Irish Derby and came excellent second in Irish Champion Stakes; Last 2 runs of last season should be discounted as he got no run in Arc and was over the top in Champion Stakes; Proved much fitter for reappearance run when landing Mooresbridge Stakes easily earlier and could take this on way to big things this season.
Halicarnassus: Tough as nuts horse who got yet another win in Dubai with a valiant all-the-way success over 1½m at Meydan in February; Something amiss next time but well beaten on both starts in Group company this season.
Recharge: Coming back to something like his career – best Irish Derby run but even then he has something to find on Fame And Glory, and similar story when well beaten by him in Moorsbridge Stakes; Now 5lbs worse off.
Chinese White: Better than ever last season, and returned in stunning form when trashing She’s Our Mark easily at Gowran on comeback; Will give her running but has some very tough opponents to beat.
VERDICT: A small but pretty select field for a race which has thrown up the likes of Daylami, Montjeu, Fantastic Light, Duke Of Marmalade and Hurricane Run in the past few years alone. Cutlass Bay was seriously impressive when landing the Ganay last time, beating a Group 1 winner whilst hanging all the way. Although he looked superb that day but stable switch to Saeed Bin Suroor yard (0-18 in recent weeks) does pose questions. FAME AND GLORY did very well considering that he had to contend with Sea The Stars last season and having been wound up by his first 2 runs, he can take this going onto bigger things. Don’t count Chinese White and Recharge as there to make up the numbers.
Irish 1,000 Guineas 2010
4.15 Curragh
Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner €188,500
Pick: Music Show (win), Termagant (e/w)
Anna Salai: Broke her maiden in frankly brilliant style when landing Prix La Grotte with a swopping late run, showing signs of more to come; Must come into serious consideration on that form, especially if progressing; One of main players today.
Astari: Won maiden at the Curragh in May and nursery at Gowran next month, looking well suited by test of speed at 8f in latter; Ran 2 career bests in succession when finishing second in listed event and then the Rockfel Stakes behind Music Show; Hasn’t reached same form in 2 starts this season, needing run badly (hung right final furlong) in Nell Gwyn and unable to hold of Beterah (reopposes) in 1,000 Guineas trial; Will be hard pressed to reverse form.
Beterah: Instantly proving better at 3 then 2, swooping late on to just get up over Atasari in 1,000 Guineas trial; Form of that rival shows she is at the very least a Group 3/2 horse and is probably still improving, for all that this Is much tougher.
Blue Maiden: Built on promising debut second to Lady Pattern at Newbury when getting off the mark at Newmakret and taking major step forward when then finishing second behind Long Lashes in the Sweet Solera Stakes (foot problem final start so not worth assessing on that run); Ran well in Nell Gwyn and wasn’t disgraced in 1,00 Guineas but still has lot to do in race just as fiercely contested.
Cncodancer: Has to be respected coming from yard that also has Group 3 winner Lolly For Dolly in the field; Impressed when getting better of 29 rivals first time out and while she will improve for a range of factors, this test is likely to ask too much of her.
Crystal Gal: Hasn’t really progressed as expected from her maiden win first time out and is likely to find this too much based on her form behind Lady Springbank.
Famous: Performed admirably last season, running well in all races from Group 1 to Sales level; While she has been very consistent, she does look quite well held by Termagant, Lille Langtry, Lady Springback and Lolly For Dolly.
Full Of Hope: Been well beaten i8n 2 Group events this season and looks set for pacemaking role here.
Gile Na Greine: Looked out of her depth at Group 1 level when fifth in the Moyglare and looked like she already needed further than this when staying on but not really threatening at Dundalk; Took her form to new level when third in 1,000 Guineas and while there must be doubts over how much she achieved (3rd of 5 on heavily favoured side) she’s guaranteed to take a hand if literally reproducing that run; Special Duty gave form solid look.
Lady Darshaan: Built up some good group form to her name, staying on well at the end of the Cherry Hinton Stakes and stepped up miles on that when an unlucky second in the Fillies Mile (struck on nose when laying down a challenge); Better than dare finishing postion in 1,000 Guineas as she raced on bad side but has something to prove now.
Lady Springbank: Made up into a decent filly as a 2 year old, taking Group 3 event in decent style on last start as a juvenile and built on that when landing 1,000 Guineas trial earlier in the season; Comes into the equation as one of the liker ones although she may have caught a few rivals on an off day.
Lillie Langtry: Made up into Ballydoyle’s best juvenile filly last season and holds a lot of very good form, her Debutante Stakes win & Moyglare Stakes third (On unsuitably soft conditions)entitling her to take a hand; Also has a Sales Stakes and Coolmore Sprint Stakes win to her name so every chance of showing up really well, but she will need the run badly having injured her knee at the Breeder’s Cup last time.
Lolly For Dolly: Was positively electric when bolting up on debut and instantly proved herself a Group class performer when getting out of trouble to land Atahsi Stakes; Looked as if she would improve again that day and could be anything.
Music Show: Was very progressive as a 2 year old, winning 3 out of her four starts including the Rockfel Stakes and confirmed that promise when giving weight and a beating to Blue Maiden in the Nell Gwyn on reappearance; Was desperately unlucky to finish sixth in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket considering that she fairly thrashed her side and must hold a big chance of reversing that form here.
Queen Of Troy: Already been beaten by 3 of the major contenders here (Lolly For Dolly, Betharah and Lady Springbank) so looks set for pacemaking role.
Remember When: Still a maiden but has posted very promising efforts on both her starts, first of all when coming second in strong maiden and then when running a good race on debut to come third behind Chinese White in good listed event; Could run a big race and will find plenty of improvement for first run.
Song Of My Heart: Shaped like a sprinter in waiting last season but was well beaten on only try in Group 1 company in Cheveley Park Stakes; Will do well to make a real impact here although booking of Jamie Spencer suggests yard mean business.
Tamergant: Unspectacular pedigree but that didn't stop her making a winning debut at Leopardstown in June, comfortably accounting for subsequent Group 3 winner Cabaret; Even more impressive when practically running away with Moyglare, putting up a good turn of foot on heavy ground; If fit and ready here will really take all the beating.
What About Me: Behind Song Of My Heart on seasonal reappearance and needs more than that to take a hand, seeing as she hasn’t progressed as one would have expected from seasonal debut last year.
VERDICT: A very interesting renewal which which like the 2,00 Guineas ran a day earlier had the potential to provide us with a lot more answers than were given at wither Newmarket or Longchamp. 9/2 about MUSIC SHOW is a very fair price seeing as she was given no chance by the draw in the English equivalent three weeks ago. The Nell Gywn winner did well to manage sixth on that occasion and connections will be hopeful of gaining compensation today. Lillie Langtry looks the pick of the Ballydoyle team although she was well held by the unbeaten TERMAGANT (e/w pick) in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last year. Gile Na Greine will be there or thereabouts if literally repsdcing her run last time and one would have to argue that Special Duty’s run did uphold the form last week. Anna Salai’s turn of foot was very taking when landing the Pirx La Grotte and a literal reproduction or improvement of that form will make her got close Lolly For Dolly also had more in the tank when winning the Atasi Stakes last time and should run a big one, while Lady Srpingbank is a lively outsider.
Etihad Airways Irish 1,000 Guineas (Fillies' Group 1) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner €188,500
Pick: Music Show (win), Termagant (e/w)
Anna Salai: Broke her maiden in frankly brilliant style when landing Prix La Grotte with a swopping late run, showing signs of more to come; Must come into serious consideration on that form, especially if progressing; One of main players today.
Astari: Won maiden at the Curragh in May and nursery at Gowran next month, looking well suited by test of speed at 8f in latter; Ran 2 career bests in succession when finishing second in listed event and then the Rockfel Stakes behind Music Show; Hasn’t reached same form in 2 starts this season, needing run badly (hung right final furlong) in Nell Gwyn and unable to hold of Beterah (reopposes) in 1,000 Guineas trial; Will be hard pressed to reverse form.
Beterah: Instantly proving better at 3 then 2, swooping late on to just get up over Atasari in 1,000 Guineas trial; Form of that rival shows she is at the very least a Group 3/2 horse and is probably still improving, for all that this Is much tougher.
Blue Maiden: Built on promising debut second to Lady Pattern at Newbury when getting off the mark at Newmakret and taking major step forward when then finishing second behind Long Lashes in the Sweet Solera Stakes (foot problem final start so not worth assessing on that run); Ran well in Nell Gwyn and wasn’t disgraced in 1,00 Guineas but still has lot to do in race just as fiercely contested.
Cncodancer: Has to be respected coming from yard that also has Group 3 winner Lolly For Dolly in the field; Impressed when getting better of 29 rivals first time out and while she will improve for a range of factors, this test is likely to ask too much of her.
Crystal Gal: Hasn’t really progressed as expected from her maiden win first time out and is likely to find this too much based on her form behind Lady Springbank.
Famous: Performed admirably last season, running well in all races from Group 1 to Sales level; While she has been very consistent, she does look quite well held by Termagant, Lille Langtry, Lady Springback and Lolly For Dolly.
Full Of Hope: Been well beaten i8n 2 Group events this season and looks set for pacemaking role here.
Gile Na Greine: Looked out of her depth at Group 1 level when fifth in the Moyglare and looked like she already needed further than this when staying on but not really threatening at Dundalk; Took her form to new level when third in 1,000 Guineas and while there must be doubts over how much she achieved (3rd of 5 on heavily favoured side) she’s guaranteed to take a hand if literally reproducing that run; Special Duty gave form solid look.
Lady Darshaan: Built up some good group form to her name, staying on well at the end of the Cherry Hinton Stakes and stepped up miles on that when an unlucky second in the Fillies Mile (struck on nose when laying down a challenge); Better than dare finishing postion in 1,000 Guineas as she raced on bad side but has something to prove now.
Lady Springbank: Made up into a decent filly as a 2 year old, taking Group 3 event in decent style on last start as a juvenile and built on that when landing 1,000 Guineas trial earlier in the season; Comes into the equation as one of the liker ones although she may have caught a few rivals on an off day.
Lillie Langtry: Made up into Ballydoyle’s best juvenile filly last season and holds a lot of very good form, her Debutante Stakes win & Moyglare Stakes third (On unsuitably soft conditions)entitling her to take a hand; Also has a Sales Stakes and Coolmore Sprint Stakes win to her name so every chance of showing up really well, but she will need the run badly having injured her knee at the Breeder’s Cup last time.
Lolly For Dolly: Was positively electric when bolting up on debut and instantly proved herself a Group class performer when getting out of trouble to land Atahsi Stakes; Looked as if she would improve again that day and could be anything.
Music Show: Was very progressive as a 2 year old, winning 3 out of her four starts including the Rockfel Stakes and confirmed that promise when giving weight and a beating to Blue Maiden in the Nell Gwyn on reappearance; Was desperately unlucky to finish sixth in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket considering that she fairly thrashed her side and must hold a big chance of reversing that form here.
Queen Of Troy: Already been beaten by 3 of the major contenders here (Lolly For Dolly, Betharah and Lady Springbank) so looks set for pacemaking role.
Remember When: Still a maiden but has posted very promising efforts on both her starts, first of all when coming second in strong maiden and then when running a good race on debut to come third behind Chinese White in good listed event; Could run a big race and will find plenty of improvement for first run.
Song Of My Heart: Shaped like a sprinter in waiting last season but was well beaten on only try in Group 1 company in Cheveley Park Stakes; Will do well to make a real impact here although booking of Jamie Spencer suggests yard mean business.
Tamergant: Unspectacular pedigree but that didn't stop her making a winning debut at Leopardstown in June, comfortably accounting for subsequent Group 3 winner Cabaret; Even more impressive when practically running away with Moyglare, putting up a good turn of foot on heavy ground; If fit and ready here will really take all the beating.
What About Me: Behind Song Of My Heart on seasonal reappearance and needs more than that to take a hand, seeing as she hasn’t progressed as one would have expected from seasonal debut last year.
VERDICT: A very interesting renewal which which like the 2,00 Guineas ran a day earlier had the potential to provide us with a lot more answers than were given at wither Newmarket or Longchamp. 9/2 about MUSIC SHOW is a very fair price seeing as she was given no chance by the draw in the English equivalent three weeks ago. The Nell Gywn winner did well to manage sixth on that occasion and connections will be hopeful of gaining compensation today. Lillie Langtry looks the pick of the Ballydoyle team although she was well held by the unbeaten TERMAGANT (e/w pick) in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last year. Gile Na Greine will be there or thereabouts if literally repsdcing her run last time and one would have to argue that Special Duty’s run did uphold the form last week. Anna Salai’s turn of foot was very taking when landing the Pirx La Grotte and a literal reproduction or improvement of that form will make her got close Lolly For Dolly also had more in the tank when winning the Atasi Stakes last time and should run a big one, while Lady Srpingbank is a lively outsider.
Temple Stakes 2010
3.05 Haydock
betfred.com Temple Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £56,770
Pick: Borderlescott (win), Total Gallery (e/w)
Total Gallery: Did all his good work towards the end of last season, his biggest win coming in Prix L’Abbaye and running a very good race with the world’s best in Hong Kong when last seen; Gave the impression that it was race – fitness and not penalty that impacted him most when sixth in the Place House last time and must be closer for that run today.
Benbaun: Admirably tough and speed front runner over 5f (only just behind Borderlescott in Nunthorpe) and looked just as good as ever when coming second to Marchan’d Dor giving away 6lbs; If he comes here in that from he will take a major hand but that was only 6 days ago.
Blue Jack: Won 4 times last year for William Muir and gave impression that switch to Dascombe yard may even have improved him judged on impressive win (looked group sprinter in waiting); Confirmed that promise when he came home late and fast in Place House Stakes and while he should go well again, more is needed.
Borderlescott: Never run a bad race, and proved himself better than ever last year when campaigned mainly at this trip, winning the Nunthorpe and placed in Temple and the Abbaye; Favoured by weights (didn’t get run behind Total Gallery in L’Abbaye); Needed the run when behind Equiano and must be given good chance here.
Equiano: Came up well short at Group 1 level last year after finishing second in Abernant Stakes (which he won this year); He looked back to best when landing Place House Stakes last time and must be respected although he will have more on his hands today with Benabun gunning for the lead and Bordelrescott and Total Gallery coming on for the reappearance.
Kingsgate Native; Leapt onto the sprinting scene with fantastic juvenile career that included wins in the Nunthorpe and then a 2nd in the L’Abbye at the back end of the season; Was bitterly disappointing in the King’s Stand in his reappearance but improved a ton off that to then land the Golden Jubilee, before decent efforts in the July Cup and Nunthorpe; No show on reappearance but brilliant when landing Audi Stakes; Interesting that he has been gelded but has been badly beaten on reappearance run for the last 2 seasons.
Spin Cycle: Had some smart juvenile form, on which he improved to win with at Musslebrugh in May; Hasn’t exactly had things go his way since and although he ran well towards the end of last season, this looks beyond him even if improving from his seventh in the Palace House Stakes.
Wi Dud: First success since 2006 when winning minor event at Nottingham in April; Bombed out at Naas last time, showing his quirky side and has a lot on.
Look Busy: Won this race last year when edging out Borderlescott (Wi Dud Third) but this year’s renewal is much stronger; Not too much wrong with her Chester run (seemed to get checked when making challenge) but seemed to lose form after winning this last year.
VERDICT: A top class renewal of this Group 2, with 6 Group 1 winners. If you look at recent from, the place to start is probably Equiano, who looks back to something like his best and more having had a wind operation. He will have more on his plate again though, with both TOTAL GALLERY and BORDERLESCOTT likely to be fitter now following that. Both should go close here. Benbaun’s effort last week was every encouraging having to give 6lbs to a very good sprinter and while he can be expected to take a big hand at more favourable weight being a fitter horse but this is only 6 days after that effort. Kingsgate Native should also hold a good chance on his Audi Stakes but he was behind both Benbaun and Borderlescott in the Nunthorpe and has needed his seasonal run badly on both the past 2 seasons.
betfred.com Temple Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £56,770
Pick: Borderlescott (win), Total Gallery (e/w)
Total Gallery: Did all his good work towards the end of last season, his biggest win coming in Prix L’Abbaye and running a very good race with the world’s best in Hong Kong when last seen; Gave the impression that it was race – fitness and not penalty that impacted him most when sixth in the Place House last time and must be closer for that run today.
Benbaun: Admirably tough and speed front runner over 5f (only just behind Borderlescott in Nunthorpe) and looked just as good as ever when coming second to Marchan’d Dor giving away 6lbs; If he comes here in that from he will take a major hand but that was only 6 days ago.
Blue Jack: Won 4 times last year for William Muir and gave impression that switch to Dascombe yard may even have improved him judged on impressive win (looked group sprinter in waiting); Confirmed that promise when he came home late and fast in Place House Stakes and while he should go well again, more is needed.
Borderlescott: Never run a bad race, and proved himself better than ever last year when campaigned mainly at this trip, winning the Nunthorpe and placed in Temple and the Abbaye; Favoured by weights (didn’t get run behind Total Gallery in L’Abbaye); Needed the run when behind Equiano and must be given good chance here.
Equiano: Came up well short at Group 1 level last year after finishing second in Abernant Stakes (which he won this year); He looked back to best when landing Place House Stakes last time and must be respected although he will have more on his hands today with Benabun gunning for the lead and Bordelrescott and Total Gallery coming on for the reappearance.
Kingsgate Native; Leapt onto the sprinting scene with fantastic juvenile career that included wins in the Nunthorpe and then a 2nd in the L’Abbye at the back end of the season; Was bitterly disappointing in the King’s Stand in his reappearance but improved a ton off that to then land the Golden Jubilee, before decent efforts in the July Cup and Nunthorpe; No show on reappearance but brilliant when landing Audi Stakes; Interesting that he has been gelded but has been badly beaten on reappearance run for the last 2 seasons.
Spin Cycle: Had some smart juvenile form, on which he improved to win with at Musslebrugh in May; Hasn’t exactly had things go his way since and although he ran well towards the end of last season, this looks beyond him even if improving from his seventh in the Palace House Stakes.
Wi Dud: First success since 2006 when winning minor event at Nottingham in April; Bombed out at Naas last time, showing his quirky side and has a lot on.
Look Busy: Won this race last year when edging out Borderlescott (Wi Dud Third) but this year’s renewal is much stronger; Not too much wrong with her Chester run (seemed to get checked when making challenge) but seemed to lose form after winning this last year.
VERDICT: A top class renewal of this Group 2, with 6 Group 1 winners. If you look at recent from, the place to start is probably Equiano, who looks back to something like his best and more having had a wind operation. He will have more on his plate again though, with both TOTAL GALLERY and BORDERLESCOTT likely to be fitter now following that. Both should go close here. Benbaun’s effort last week was every encouraging having to give 6lbs to a very good sprinter and while he can be expected to take a big hand at more favourable weight being a fitter horse but this is only 6 days after that effort. Kingsgate Native should also hold a good chance on his Audi Stakes but he was behind both Benbaun and Borderlescott in the Nunthorpe and has needed his seasonal run badly on both the past 2 seasons.
Greenlands Stakes 2010
3.10 Curragh
Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes (group 3) (3YO plus)
Winner €43,875
Picks: Alfred Nobel (win) , Kitty Kiernan (e/w)
Snaefell: Thoroughly consistent sprinter who’s best efforts include a win at this level in the Phoenix, Woodlands, and Bud Light sprint stakes; Won minor event at Cork and Group 3 here in 2009 but hasn’t given impression he will run to that form today.
Jimmy Styles: Made up into a smart performer at handicapping level last season, winning Ayr Gold Cup but only fifth next time out at Ascot and will need to be at very best to deny race fit rivals at this level.
Luisant: One of many who made up into a smart performer and has shown himself to be as good as or even better in 2 starts of 5f this season; Will love the longer trip but has to step up a bit and not proven of ground this fast.
Markab: Incredibly solid last season, finishing fourth in Wokingham and Stewards’ Cup; He did have a couple of below par efforts last season but his Group3 fifth ,made him look a stakes performer in waiting with improvement; Impressed on return and likely to take high rank.
Rain Delayed: Hard to know whether he actually improved from last season’s form when landing listed race last time, seeing as he got a very good ride and had an advantage that day; Whether or not that is the case, likely to figure prominently here.
Six Of Hearts: Admirable but faces tough task in Group 3 events alone, let alone ones as fiercely contested at this.
Invincible Ash: Probably has a big day in him and run last time is best forgotten (got no cover at all on slow side off track) but not in this kind of event.
Alfred Nobel: Wins in Phoenix and Railway Stakes make him the form horse in this field and there was an element of class about the manner in which he collared Air Chief Marshal; He does have valid excuses for very single run since and although excuses will be wearing thin, he will be much better for the run last time, the ground should suit and this distance is probably perfect.
Air Chief Marshal: Made Alfred Nobel work very hard in the Phoenix Stakes last year and while not winning after that, he maintained his form at least; Will need more on first start since October but not one to be totally discounted.
Kitty Kiernan: Made a promising debut at Nass just over a year ago when beating Lille Langtry impressively; Made not have progressed as much as expected but this trip and ground should be fine and is a big price for in form yard.
Velvet Flicker: Found some improvement to get better of Lusiant (reopposes today today) on her seasonal debut; Must be given fair chance on that even though she got run of things and Luisant will like this trip a lot more.
VERDICT: It’s hard to think of a more fiercely contested race. ALFRED NOBEL is the pick based on the fact he has a good chance and is a fair price, with KITTEY KIERNAN being given a second look at a big price for an in – from yard.
Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes (group 3) (3YO plus)
Winner €43,875
Picks: Alfred Nobel (win) , Kitty Kiernan (e/w)
Snaefell: Thoroughly consistent sprinter who’s best efforts include a win at this level in the Phoenix, Woodlands, and Bud Light sprint stakes; Won minor event at Cork and Group 3 here in 2009 but hasn’t given impression he will run to that form today.
Jimmy Styles: Made up into a smart performer at handicapping level last season, winning Ayr Gold Cup but only fifth next time out at Ascot and will need to be at very best to deny race fit rivals at this level.
Luisant: One of many who made up into a smart performer and has shown himself to be as good as or even better in 2 starts of 5f this season; Will love the longer trip but has to step up a bit and not proven of ground this fast.
Markab: Incredibly solid last season, finishing fourth in Wokingham and Stewards’ Cup; He did have a couple of below par efforts last season but his Group3 fifth ,made him look a stakes performer in waiting with improvement; Impressed on return and likely to take high rank.
Rain Delayed: Hard to know whether he actually improved from last season’s form when landing listed race last time, seeing as he got a very good ride and had an advantage that day; Whether or not that is the case, likely to figure prominently here.
Six Of Hearts: Admirable but faces tough task in Group 3 events alone, let alone ones as fiercely contested at this.
Invincible Ash: Probably has a big day in him and run last time is best forgotten (got no cover at all on slow side off track) but not in this kind of event.
Alfred Nobel: Wins in Phoenix and Railway Stakes make him the form horse in this field and there was an element of class about the manner in which he collared Air Chief Marshal; He does have valid excuses for very single run since and although excuses will be wearing thin, he will be much better for the run last time, the ground should suit and this distance is probably perfect.
Air Chief Marshal: Made Alfred Nobel work very hard in the Phoenix Stakes last year and while not winning after that, he maintained his form at least; Will need more on first start since October but not one to be totally discounted.
Kitty Kiernan: Made a promising debut at Nass just over a year ago when beating Lille Langtry impressively; Made not have progressed as much as expected but this trip and ground should be fine and is a big price for in form yard.
Velvet Flicker: Found some improvement to get better of Lusiant (reopposes today today) on her seasonal debut; Must be given fair chance on that even though she got run of things and Luisant will like this trip a lot more.
VERDICT: It’s hard to think of a more fiercely contested race. ALFRED NOBEL is the pick based on the fact he has a good chance and is a fair price, with KITTEY KIERNAN being given a second look at a big price for an in – from yard.
Marble Hill Stakes
2.40 Curragh
T P Waters European Breeders Fund Marble Hill Stakes (Listed) (2YO only)
Winner €29,250
Picks: Samuel Morse (win), So Stylish (e/w)
Foolproof: Likely to improve for both positive jockey change and initial first experience but does still look like a longer term sort and drop back in trip on this ground is not going to help.
High Award: Nice purchase with a high class pedigree who was sharp enough to be first winner of season here; May have been giving 5lbs to Lightening Thief (expected to reverse form) last time but that effort a little disappointing nonetheless.
Jolly Snake: Runner-up in a maiden at Dundalk on debut and didn't need to improve to go one better there last time; Will probably do better but hard to really fancy here, for all he’s rather an unknown.
Lightening Thief: ability when second at Naas on debut and duly improved markedly on that form when seeing off High Award by 2 lengths at Cork; Unlikely to get his own way out in front and was getting 5lbs that day though.
Moment Of Weakness: May be his turf debut but he boasts the best form in a head defeat of subsequent 8 lengths winner Meow on his second start at Dundalk; Must go well here if improving more and taking to surface.
Samuel Morse: Created good impression when scoring here on debut and almost certain to improve from that having appeared so early in the season; Yard have excellent record in this event and major chance here.
Purple Glow: Got up in game, determined style to win a Navan Maiden last time but that was off lightweight (good 7lbs claimer riding) and has been beaten by So Stylish; Probably has a bit to find in this company.
So Stylish: Quite taking on debut considering that she raced alone on the far side with no company on debut at Navan, and that race has thrown up 2 winners since; Was green that day and will only get better.
VERDICT: A trappy but promising listed event. Moment Of Weakness holds the best form on her defeat of subsequent 8 lengths winner Meow last time and is sure to take the beating but knowing the form of Ballydoyle debutants and how much they improve for the run, you would have to be taken by the way SAMUEL MORSE won so early in the season. SO STYLISH is also worth an e/w bet at the odds for me.
T P Waters European Breeders Fund Marble Hill Stakes (Listed) (2YO only)
Winner €29,250
Picks: Samuel Morse (win), So Stylish (e/w)
Foolproof: Likely to improve for both positive jockey change and initial first experience but does still look like a longer term sort and drop back in trip on this ground is not going to help.
High Award: Nice purchase with a high class pedigree who was sharp enough to be first winner of season here; May have been giving 5lbs to Lightening Thief (expected to reverse form) last time but that effort a little disappointing nonetheless.
Jolly Snake: Runner-up in a maiden at Dundalk on debut and didn't need to improve to go one better there last time; Will probably do better but hard to really fancy here, for all he’s rather an unknown.
Lightening Thief: ability when second at Naas on debut and duly improved markedly on that form when seeing off High Award by 2 lengths at Cork; Unlikely to get his own way out in front and was getting 5lbs that day though.
Moment Of Weakness: May be his turf debut but he boasts the best form in a head defeat of subsequent 8 lengths winner Meow on his second start at Dundalk; Must go well here if improving more and taking to surface.
Samuel Morse: Created good impression when scoring here on debut and almost certain to improve from that having appeared so early in the season; Yard have excellent record in this event and major chance here.
Purple Glow: Got up in game, determined style to win a Navan Maiden last time but that was off lightweight (good 7lbs claimer riding) and has been beaten by So Stylish; Probably has a bit to find in this company.
So Stylish: Quite taking on debut considering that she raced alone on the far side with no company on debut at Navan, and that race has thrown up 2 winners since; Was green that day and will only get better.
VERDICT: A trappy but promising listed event. Moment Of Weakness holds the best form on her defeat of subsequent 8 lengths winner Meow last time and is sure to take the beating but knowing the form of Ballydoyle debutants and how much they improve for the run, you would have to be taken by the way SAMUEL MORSE won so early in the season. SO STYLISH is also worth an e/w bet at the odds for me.
Irish 2,000 Guineas
3.45 Curragh
Abu Dhabi Irish 2,000 Guineas (group 1) (3YO only)
Winner €188,500
Pick: Canford Cliffs
Canford Cliffs: Looked unbeatable when landing his maiden an impressed even more when trashing Coventry field, having pulled hard and gone clear; Didn’t run too badly when third behind Arcano in Morny last August and showed he still retained ability when finishing second in Greenham Stakes and third last time in 2,000 Guineas; Was ahead of Fencing Master and Xtension when third in the 2,000 Guineas, and is expected to be very close again, for all this will be a stiffer test of a mile than Newmarket (Faster pace likely throughout the race).
Dyansty: Had some very useful form as a 2 year old, finishing third of 13 on his side behind Oasis Dancer in the Timeform Millions Stakes; Shaped very nicely on seasonal return when a neck behind Free Judgement and can be expected to reverse placings, but a lot to do to make an impact here.
Encompassing: Taken a long time to come to hand, breaking his maiden only a few weeks previously to this; Good fifth in Dee Stakes but well beaten by a more progressive rival (Shintoh) last time and needs more here.
Fencing Master: Highly promising debut when overcoming greenness to beat a subsequent winner at Dundalk first time out, and stepped up a level when coming second in the Dewhurst after a troubled trip and bad start; probably fair to say that he ran below that when seventh in the Guineas last time but he will improve massively for the run and must be in the picture.
Free Judgement: Although he has been quite well exposed at the top level (eighth in last year’s Dewhurst) he is a tough and consistent sort, who battled well to land the Teterach Stakes, although he was well behind Noll Wallop on seasonal return and Dynasty looks likely to reverse form with him.
Keredari: Broke maiden in impressive style and ran with plenty of promise when 2 lengths behind Free Judgement on last start as a juvenile; Showed lots of promise when running away with Loughbrown Stakes; Sure to improve a ton for that and in with a chance.
Noll Wallop: Looked a smart prospect at 2 yrs and duly confirmed that impression when beating Viscount Nelson by 3½ lengths in 2000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown; Capable of better still and must be given chance here taking improvement into account.
Oasis Dancer: Showed some very smart form at 2, winning Timeform Millions Sales Race (might have been lucky to be on good side) and coming second to Workforce (albeit well beaten); Has run well in two handicaps this season but obviously will be needing much more.
Purple Heart: Has run succession of decent races, and Belatedly came good on final juvenile start when successful in nursery at Navan; Hasn’t run badly this season but would be needing a lot more here and temperament would need to improve a fair bit.
Sebastian Flyte: Progressed with each start at 2 yrs, following Gowran win with placed efforts in Group 3 here and Group 2 at Newmarket (possibly a shade flattered); Well beaten on return, and needs more, like some others in the field.
Steinbeck: Only had one start to before the Dewhurst but was hugely impressive in landing it, having beaten Gold Bubbles and King Ledley (Both subsequent group placed horses) by a comfortable two lengths; Stepped up massively with a great effort in the Dewhurst, racing close to the gallop leading all the way and then being unlucky to be on unflavoured rail side; Massive scope for improvement this year but having not had a run is a huge worry.
Viscount Nelson: Looked like a very good horse on his first few starts, especially when landing the Hurricane Run Stakes under a hand ride; Probably exposed for the faster ground in Champagne Stakes and lost the race at the start in the Breeders Cup; Hasn’t really been progressing as expected as a 3 year old.
Xtension: Was a good second behind Canford Cliffs and very impressive in two wins as a 2 year old, both at Goodwood, having won the Vintage Stakes in good style before running very well in Dewhurst; Great progress again when fourth in 2,000 and will be there or thereabouts; Improving for the run as well.
VERDICT: A good strong renewal of the Irish 2,000 Guineas with plenty of strength in depth and quite a few horses that can’t be ruled out, where you can make a good case of any horse of 6. The first of many imponderables is whether Steinbeck is wound up and ready to run, because if he is he’s got to be the one to beat with such massive scope for progress off some already very high class form. Fencing Master and Xtension are obviously going to be much better for their first runs for the season, especially Fencing Master, but CANFORD CLIFFS ran a great race to be third and is well worth taking at 3/1 as that form entitles him to be very close here and he has few questions to answer over the trip for me. Noll Wallop and Keradari are perfectly good e/w bets for anyone looking for value, as they are entitled to improve a lot, with maybe Noll Wallop having the better form than Keradari.
Abu Dhabi Irish 2,000 Guineas (group 1) (3YO only)
Winner €188,500
Pick: Canford Cliffs
Canford Cliffs: Looked unbeatable when landing his maiden an impressed even more when trashing Coventry field, having pulled hard and gone clear; Didn’t run too badly when third behind Arcano in Morny last August and showed he still retained ability when finishing second in Greenham Stakes and third last time in 2,000 Guineas; Was ahead of Fencing Master and Xtension when third in the 2,000 Guineas, and is expected to be very close again, for all this will be a stiffer test of a mile than Newmarket (Faster pace likely throughout the race).
Dyansty: Had some very useful form as a 2 year old, finishing third of 13 on his side behind Oasis Dancer in the Timeform Millions Stakes; Shaped very nicely on seasonal return when a neck behind Free Judgement and can be expected to reverse placings, but a lot to do to make an impact here.
Encompassing: Taken a long time to come to hand, breaking his maiden only a few weeks previously to this; Good fifth in Dee Stakes but well beaten by a more progressive rival (Shintoh) last time and needs more here.
Fencing Master: Highly promising debut when overcoming greenness to beat a subsequent winner at Dundalk first time out, and stepped up a level when coming second in the Dewhurst after a troubled trip and bad start; probably fair to say that he ran below that when seventh in the Guineas last time but he will improve massively for the run and must be in the picture.
Free Judgement: Although he has been quite well exposed at the top level (eighth in last year’s Dewhurst) he is a tough and consistent sort, who battled well to land the Teterach Stakes, although he was well behind Noll Wallop on seasonal return and Dynasty looks likely to reverse form with him.
Keredari: Broke maiden in impressive style and ran with plenty of promise when 2 lengths behind Free Judgement on last start as a juvenile; Showed lots of promise when running away with Loughbrown Stakes; Sure to improve a ton for that and in with a chance.
Noll Wallop: Looked a smart prospect at 2 yrs and duly confirmed that impression when beating Viscount Nelson by 3½ lengths in 2000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown; Capable of better still and must be given chance here taking improvement into account.
Oasis Dancer: Showed some very smart form at 2, winning Timeform Millions Sales Race (might have been lucky to be on good side) and coming second to Workforce (albeit well beaten); Has run well in two handicaps this season but obviously will be needing much more.
Purple Heart: Has run succession of decent races, and Belatedly came good on final juvenile start when successful in nursery at Navan; Hasn’t run badly this season but would be needing a lot more here and temperament would need to improve a fair bit.
Sebastian Flyte: Progressed with each start at 2 yrs, following Gowran win with placed efforts in Group 3 here and Group 2 at Newmarket (possibly a shade flattered); Well beaten on return, and needs more, like some others in the field.
Steinbeck: Only had one start to before the Dewhurst but was hugely impressive in landing it, having beaten Gold Bubbles and King Ledley (Both subsequent group placed horses) by a comfortable two lengths; Stepped up massively with a great effort in the Dewhurst, racing close to the gallop leading all the way and then being unlucky to be on unflavoured rail side; Massive scope for improvement this year but having not had a run is a huge worry.
Viscount Nelson: Looked like a very good horse on his first few starts, especially when landing the Hurricane Run Stakes under a hand ride; Probably exposed for the faster ground in Champagne Stakes and lost the race at the start in the Breeders Cup; Hasn’t really been progressing as expected as a 3 year old.
Xtension: Was a good second behind Canford Cliffs and very impressive in two wins as a 2 year old, both at Goodwood, having won the Vintage Stakes in good style before running very well in Dewhurst; Great progress again when fourth in 2,000 and will be there or thereabouts; Improving for the run as well.
VERDICT: A good strong renewal of the Irish 2,000 Guineas with plenty of strength in depth and quite a few horses that can’t be ruled out, where you can make a good case of any horse of 6. The first of many imponderables is whether Steinbeck is wound up and ready to run, because if he is he’s got to be the one to beat with such massive scope for progress off some already very high class form. Fencing Master and Xtension are obviously going to be much better for their first runs for the season, especially Fencing Master, but CANFORD CLIFFS ran a great race to be third and is well worth taking at 3/1 as that form entitles him to be very close here and he has few questions to answer over the trip for me. Noll Wallop and Keradari are perfectly good e/w bets for anyone looking for value, as they are entitled to improve a lot, with maybe Noll Wallop having the better form than Keradari.
Saturday 15 May 2010
French 2000 Guineas 2010
2.50 Longchamp
Poule D'Essai Des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) (Group 1) (3YO only)
Winner €290,557
Pick: Dick Turpin
Rajasaman: Had been a useful if unspectacular 2 year old, winning a listed race before being beaten four lengths in a Group 3; Was used as a pacemaker but won Prix De Fontainebleau last time, beating Siyouni and Lope De Vega; Form cannot be taken at face value seeing as Siyouni took a while to get going and should be sharper but useful performance all the same.
Siyouni: Had looked like massive talking horse when winning first four starts in seamless style; Ran into Cheveley Park winner in Special Duty and set plenty to do when second to Buzzword; Put up arguably best 2 year old performance in field to win Prix Jean Luc here on Arc weekend; Even allowing for lack of race – fitness he was disappointing on seasonal debut, hitting flat spot and coming home quick, but too late; Will do better but may have something to prove now.
Meezan: Looked like a useful sort when landing a decent handicap but one would have to think that he is flying too high here if he failed to win a conditions contest last time, for all that the step up to a mile will suit.
Shamalagan: Quickly exposed as 2 year old and same story as 3 year old, finishing well beaten sixth on both starts this year.
Lope De Vega: Won both his first starts in the style of an extremely smart colt, both by 2 and a half lengths before finish fourth in the Prix Jean Luc behind Siyoni; Beaten fair and square by that rival and Rajasaman last time and looks to have a bit to do.
Buzzword: Had a decent start to his career with a second and a win to his name, both at Windsor; Form has been well franked on both occasions and made eye-catching late progress to be 2nd behind runaway winner D**k Turpin in Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood; Was a bit disappointing when beaten by Shakespearian in the Solario, and put that right with good Group 3 win at Longchamp; Unable to confirm superiority over Siyouni in Group 1 and although he came out with credit when fifth in Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last time, hard to see him winning here.
Poet’s Voice: Showed plenty of potential for all that he was very keen in the early part of last season (Broke out of stalls and managed to lose the Acomb Stakes by pulling to hard); Showed what he could do when beating Viscount Nelson in Champagne Stakes only to then run probably below his best when fourth in Middle Park; If staying, holds a decent chance.
Forum Magnum: Hasn’t shown anywhere near the level of form required to win this over trip too short anyway.
Boltcity: Won 4 out of his 7 races and looked smart prospect when winning unextended on the AW at Deauville on his 3 year old debut; Probably didn’t like the very soft ground last time behind 2,000 Guineas winner Makfi last time but needs a few to underperform based on his form.
Mata Kerangjang: Was very highly tried, pitched into listed company first time out and not only that, the form of his race was boosted by Special Duty, who won the Prix Robert Papin and went on to bigger things; Didn’t progress as expected last year and will need more from tough, though draw.
Mon Cadeux: Won twice as 2 year old and made a decent debut on seasonal reappearance when third behind Society Rock in 6f listed contest; Has a lot to make up on principals in form terms and not sure to say trip well enough to win.
Dick Turpin: Looked top prospect as a 2 year old, having landed a maiden, Conditions, Sales race and Group 2 Richmond Stakes; Didn’t get a run when 5th in the Prix Jean Luc and didn’t fire for whatever reason in Dewhurst afterwards; Has been different story this season though, winning the Greenham and only overhauled in last furlong of the 2,000 Guineas at Newmakret; Must have strong chance here on that form.
Mauled field on his return on heavy ground but even though this might be unfair on him, a more accurate reflection of his talents may be his sixth placed effort in the Criterium International last year.
Aldovarando: Got better of Autumn Stakes fourth Azizi in really good style on British / AW Debut at Kempton but was getting 8lbs from Classic Colori, who is weighted to turn around the form; Unless he is some way better than that result latter mentioned fact is insignificant.
Classic Colori: Showed a lot of promise as a 2 year old (may have been well beaten in Group 3 but faced very different conditions); Made a nice reappearance In Lingfield listed race but probably didn’t run to that standard when fourth behind Aldovarandi, despite carrying an 8lbs penalty; Only just weighted to reverse placings with Aldovarandi but not shown the form to do much else.
Zazou: Probably reached peak of powers when third behind Milkhail Glinka and Passion For Gold in Criterium De Saint Cloud; Won nicely on reappearance in Germany, and would have to hold some sort of chance here, so not discounted although he might have some ground to make up on the principals.
VERDICT: With last year’s Jardgere winner and the 2,000 Guineas second lining up, this has the look of a strong and informative classic. Sioyuni is favourite at an easy to back 11/4, but he does have something to prove after getting beaten in his trial. He can be expected to reverse form with Rajasaman, who is not a bad “fun” e/w bet for all he was gifted the lead that day. DICK TURPIN has instantly proved himself better at 3 than 2 with a win in the Greenham and a second in the 2,000, and must hold a strong chance on that run. Poet’s Voice should be respected but needs to prove he will stay, and Zazou has been overpriced for all that he has a poor draw.
Poule D'Essai Des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) (Group 1) (3YO only)
Winner €290,557
Pick: Dick Turpin
Rajasaman: Had been a useful if unspectacular 2 year old, winning a listed race before being beaten four lengths in a Group 3; Was used as a pacemaker but won Prix De Fontainebleau last time, beating Siyouni and Lope De Vega; Form cannot be taken at face value seeing as Siyouni took a while to get going and should be sharper but useful performance all the same.
Siyouni: Had looked like massive talking horse when winning first four starts in seamless style; Ran into Cheveley Park winner in Special Duty and set plenty to do when second to Buzzword; Put up arguably best 2 year old performance in field to win Prix Jean Luc here on Arc weekend; Even allowing for lack of race – fitness he was disappointing on seasonal debut, hitting flat spot and coming home quick, but too late; Will do better but may have something to prove now.
Meezan: Looked like a useful sort when landing a decent handicap but one would have to think that he is flying too high here if he failed to win a conditions contest last time, for all that the step up to a mile will suit.
Shamalagan: Quickly exposed as 2 year old and same story as 3 year old, finishing well beaten sixth on both starts this year.
Lope De Vega: Won both his first starts in the style of an extremely smart colt, both by 2 and a half lengths before finish fourth in the Prix Jean Luc behind Siyoni; Beaten fair and square by that rival and Rajasaman last time and looks to have a bit to do.
Buzzword: Had a decent start to his career with a second and a win to his name, both at Windsor; Form has been well franked on both occasions and made eye-catching late progress to be 2nd behind runaway winner D**k Turpin in Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood; Was a bit disappointing when beaten by Shakespearian in the Solario, and put that right with good Group 3 win at Longchamp; Unable to confirm superiority over Siyouni in Group 1 and although he came out with credit when fifth in Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last time, hard to see him winning here.
Poet’s Voice: Showed plenty of potential for all that he was very keen in the early part of last season (Broke out of stalls and managed to lose the Acomb Stakes by pulling to hard); Showed what he could do when beating Viscount Nelson in Champagne Stakes only to then run probably below his best when fourth in Middle Park; If staying, holds a decent chance.
Forum Magnum: Hasn’t shown anywhere near the level of form required to win this over trip too short anyway.
Boltcity: Won 4 out of his 7 races and looked smart prospect when winning unextended on the AW at Deauville on his 3 year old debut; Probably didn’t like the very soft ground last time behind 2,000 Guineas winner Makfi last time but needs a few to underperform based on his form.
Mata Kerangjang: Was very highly tried, pitched into listed company first time out and not only that, the form of his race was boosted by Special Duty, who won the Prix Robert Papin and went on to bigger things; Didn’t progress as expected last year and will need more from tough, though draw.
Mon Cadeux: Won twice as 2 year old and made a decent debut on seasonal reappearance when third behind Society Rock in 6f listed contest; Has a lot to make up on principals in form terms and not sure to say trip well enough to win.
Dick Turpin: Looked top prospect as a 2 year old, having landed a maiden, Conditions, Sales race and Group 2 Richmond Stakes; Didn’t get a run when 5th in the Prix Jean Luc and didn’t fire for whatever reason in Dewhurst afterwards; Has been different story this season though, winning the Greenham and only overhauled in last furlong of the 2,000 Guineas at Newmakret; Must have strong chance here on that form.
Mauled field on his return on heavy ground but even though this might be unfair on him, a more accurate reflection of his talents may be his sixth placed effort in the Criterium International last year.
Aldovarando: Got better of Autumn Stakes fourth Azizi in really good style on British / AW Debut at Kempton but was getting 8lbs from Classic Colori, who is weighted to turn around the form; Unless he is some way better than that result latter mentioned fact is insignificant.
Classic Colori: Showed a lot of promise as a 2 year old (may have been well beaten in Group 3 but faced very different conditions); Made a nice reappearance In Lingfield listed race but probably didn’t run to that standard when fourth behind Aldovarandi, despite carrying an 8lbs penalty; Only just weighted to reverse placings with Aldovarandi but not shown the form to do much else.
Zazou: Probably reached peak of powers when third behind Milkhail Glinka and Passion For Gold in Criterium De Saint Cloud; Won nicely on reappearance in Germany, and would have to hold some sort of chance here, so not discounted although he might have some ground to make up on the principals.
VERDICT: With last year’s Jardgere winner and the 2,000 Guineas second lining up, this has the look of a strong and informative classic. Sioyuni is favourite at an easy to back 11/4, but he does have something to prove after getting beaten in his trial. He can be expected to reverse form with Rajasaman, who is not a bad “fun” e/w bet for all he was gifted the lead that day. DICK TURPIN has instantly proved himself better at 3 than 2 with a win in the Greenham and a second in the 2,000, and must hold a strong chance on that run. Poet’s Voice should be respected but needs to prove he will stay, and Zazou has been overpriced for all that he has a poor draw.
French 1,000 Guineas 2010
1.35 Longchamp
Poule D'Essai Des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) (Group 1) (3YO only)
Winner €290,557
Pick: Joanna (win), Lilliside (e/w)
Lady Of The Desert: Was arguably the top 2 year old filly for most of last season, with wins in the Lowther and Princess Margaret Stakes, both in impressive style; Had Flying Childers and Newbury Listed winner Sand Vixen in behind when winning the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot; Ran well in Cheveley Park stakes but weakened markedly late on and same story in Fred Darling Stakes; Connections put that down to fitness but still has to prove she stays; If she does, potentially one of best in race.
Full Steam: Impressive when drawing away nicely to win Prix De Parie (Conditions Stakes) at Chantilly last time; Obvious she has to step up markedly on that to take a hand but comes from top stable who must think lot of her.
Special Duty: Boasts high class 2 year old form, where she won the Chevley Park Stakes in good style, to add to her Prix Robert Papin win and excellent Prix Morny second; Needed the run on ground too soft on her reappearance run and proved so when landing 1,000 Guineas in Stewards room; That run probably gives more questions than answers but has confirmed herself high class milling filly in doing so; Wide draw gives problems but will be on premises.
Rosanara: Showed immense promise when landing debut race and then Marcel Boussac in good style, although disappointing when beaten into third on final start in Gran Criterium (soft ground not suit); Although she will improve for her reappearance run there is no doubt that it was a disappointing effort and needs improving on.
Joanna: Gritty winner of 7 furlong Deauville Group 3, following on from her Italian Listed win in similar style, and ran big race to be third in Marcel Boussac (behind Rosanara);Leaped into picture for big fillies races this season when getting better of Special Duty in Prix Imprudence; Handled soft ground but fair win otherwise and should go close again.
Lilliside: Got up in good style to win Prix La Camargo last time and the performances of the runners p have been good for a race of that level, with the second winning a Group 3 from the Boussac second (On Verra) and the third actually beating Rosananara; Clearly not one to be underestimated although she will need to handle better ground.
Dolled Up: Ran some terrific races last season but shown no evidence of training on (for all that she will have needed the run) when ninth in Prix La Grotte last time and seemed not to stay.
Barouda: Managed to get better of Ayun Tara in useful Group 3 last backend and is better than her seventh suggests in Prix La Grotte (got no run and was actually staying on well) so no forlorn hope for all she still has a lot to improve.
Ayun Tara: Behind Barouda when runner-up in Group 3 company over this trip on turf in France last October, and ran a big race in UAE 1,000 Guineas on seasonal considering she was never that far away from the strong pace; Will have improved but may not have improved past Barouda or enough to take this.
Baine: Improved for step up from 2 year old to 3 and smart effort to get better of American Nizzy in listed event; Still has to do a lot on that form and in twilight zone between not being exposed, but having had a few runs and not setting world alight.
VERDICT: it’s likely to be a close renewal of this classic. Many people put JOANNA’S win in the Prix Imprudence down to Special Duty not being wound up enough but she will have come on massively for the run and it’s hard not to see her going close at least over the mile. Special Duty posed more questions than answers when being all out to beat t four rank outsiders on the heavily favoured stands´ side that day, and a wide draw just doesn’t help her chances here. Rosanara was scintillatingly impressive in the Macrcel Boussac and had her excuses in the Criterium later on in the year, but was very disappointing last time and will need more. Lady Of The Desert isn’t far away from being the best horse in the race if staying, and LILLISIDE appeals most of the outsiders and gets the e/w vote.
Poule D'Essai Des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) (Group 1) (3YO only)
Winner €290,557
Pick: Joanna (win), Lilliside (e/w)
Lady Of The Desert: Was arguably the top 2 year old filly for most of last season, with wins in the Lowther and Princess Margaret Stakes, both in impressive style; Had Flying Childers and Newbury Listed winner Sand Vixen in behind when winning the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot; Ran well in Cheveley Park stakes but weakened markedly late on and same story in Fred Darling Stakes; Connections put that down to fitness but still has to prove she stays; If she does, potentially one of best in race.
Full Steam: Impressive when drawing away nicely to win Prix De Parie (Conditions Stakes) at Chantilly last time; Obvious she has to step up markedly on that to take a hand but comes from top stable who must think lot of her.
Special Duty: Boasts high class 2 year old form, where she won the Chevley Park Stakes in good style, to add to her Prix Robert Papin win and excellent Prix Morny second; Needed the run on ground too soft on her reappearance run and proved so when landing 1,000 Guineas in Stewards room; That run probably gives more questions than answers but has confirmed herself high class milling filly in doing so; Wide draw gives problems but will be on premises.
Rosanara: Showed immense promise when landing debut race and then Marcel Boussac in good style, although disappointing when beaten into third on final start in Gran Criterium (soft ground not suit); Although she will improve for her reappearance run there is no doubt that it was a disappointing effort and needs improving on.
Joanna: Gritty winner of 7 furlong Deauville Group 3, following on from her Italian Listed win in similar style, and ran big race to be third in Marcel Boussac (behind Rosanara);Leaped into picture for big fillies races this season when getting better of Special Duty in Prix Imprudence; Handled soft ground but fair win otherwise and should go close again.
Lilliside: Got up in good style to win Prix La Camargo last time and the performances of the runners p have been good for a race of that level, with the second winning a Group 3 from the Boussac second (On Verra) and the third actually beating Rosananara; Clearly not one to be underestimated although she will need to handle better ground.
Dolled Up: Ran some terrific races last season but shown no evidence of training on (for all that she will have needed the run) when ninth in Prix La Grotte last time and seemed not to stay.
Barouda: Managed to get better of Ayun Tara in useful Group 3 last backend and is better than her seventh suggests in Prix La Grotte (got no run and was actually staying on well) so no forlorn hope for all she still has a lot to improve.
Ayun Tara: Behind Barouda when runner-up in Group 3 company over this trip on turf in France last October, and ran a big race in UAE 1,000 Guineas on seasonal considering she was never that far away from the strong pace; Will have improved but may not have improved past Barouda or enough to take this.
Baine: Improved for step up from 2 year old to 3 and smart effort to get better of American Nizzy in listed event; Still has to do a lot on that form and in twilight zone between not being exposed, but having had a few runs and not setting world alight.
VERDICT: it’s likely to be a close renewal of this classic. Many people put JOANNA’S win in the Prix Imprudence down to Special Duty not being wound up enough but she will have come on massively for the run and it’s hard not to see her going close at least over the mile. Special Duty posed more questions than answers when being all out to beat t four rank outsiders on the heavily favoured stands´ side that day, and a wide draw just doesn’t help her chances here. Rosanara was scintillatingly impressive in the Macrcel Boussac and had her excuses in the Criterium later on in the year, but was very disappointing last time and will need more. Lady Of The Desert isn’t far away from being the best horse in the race if staying, and LILLISIDE appeals most of the outsiders and gets the e/w vote.
Upcoming plans
Seeing as I have some kind of regular readership now, I'm going to outline plans for the future.
Tomorrow: French Guineas, Singapore Races
Next Weekend: Irish Guineas Races, supporting cards
June - Oaks, Derby, Coronation Cup Royal Ascot
Keep coming back for more please
Tomorrow: French Guineas, Singapore Races
Next Weekend: Irish Guineas Races, supporting cards
June - Oaks, Derby, Coronation Cup Royal Ascot
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Preakness Stakes
11.12 Pimlico
Preakness Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £370,370
Track: Fast Distance: 1m1f110y
Picks: Super Saver (win), Schoolyard Dreams (e/w)
Aikneite: Won well on debut before getting well beaten on his first Grade 1 start in the Three Chimneys (Ran with credit) behind Dublin; Held in seven runs in Graded company since and yet to show he´s really good enough for a race like this.
Schoolyard Dreams: Fast improving horse who is getting rapidly better with age and experience, as he showed when running huge race in Tampa Bay Derby, surging to the front with ease before the straight, only to idle and be caught on the line; Admittedly he is 6lbs worse off with Super Saver but looked best horse in race all over that day; Shouldn’t be judged on run in Wood Memorial latest (mucus in his throat in the build-up, race came too soon, steady pace no use) and major longshot.
Pleasant Prince: Beaten just a nose by Derby runner-up Ice Box three starts back, but his two subsequent efforts well short of that form, including when well behind Aikenite latest; hat form gives him very little recommendable chance.
Northern Giant: Has run some very good races but been well held in three runs in Graded company, including when last in the Arkansas Derby (Super Saver second) latest.
Yawaan Twist: Credible chance being that he’s only had 4 runs and has showed himself to be smart when runner-up in both the Gotham and the Illinois Derby; More needed but possibility that hse can improve considerably.
Jackson Bend: Didn´t get the best of trips in the Kentucky Derby and might not have been suited by the sloppy track, but yet to prove he´s up to this level.
Lookin At Lucky: Super talented horse as has been shown by his 4-5 record as a 2 year old but has met with trouble on four of his next 5 starts since, notably when sent off favourite for the Kentucky Derby, only to lose his chance when squeezed up against the rail, having started from the unfavourable inside stall; Possible we haven’t seen best of him yet and different test this week can only help.
Super Saver: Although a fine ride and sloppy track (combined with dream run inside the rail) helped him a lot when winning the Kentucky Derby, he still showed himself to be a rapidly improving colt and won with plenty in hand; Has a fair bit in hand based on that from and must be given every chance of a follow up here, while it’s worth nothing that his connections only worry (less than 2 weeks to get ready) applies to most, if not all of the runners here.
Caracortado: Although he ran on well after losing his place in the Santa Anita Derby latest, he needs to improve for the return to dirt, which doesn’t seem likely as 4 out of his 5 wins are on synthetics; Not discounted by any means though.
Paddy O’ Prado: Ran a huge race in the Kentucky Derby to be third and that form automatically puts him on premises here; No obvious excuse, though, so work to do to reverse form with Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky should get closer with a clearer run.
First Dude: Probably better than he showed when fifth in the Florida Derby and was only 1l behind Paddy O´Prado in the Blue Grass on synthetics last time; That horse improved markedly since though.
Dublin: Creditable seventh in the Kentucky Derby, but that his sixth straight defeat since Grade 1 success last year; positive jokey change but doesn’t strike me as quite good enough here.
VERDICT: The second leg of the Triple Crown gives us an interesting race with battled still to be settled. It can be said that SUPER SAVER had everything go right for him in the Kentucky Derby, but he won well and must be on the premises based on that form, making 5-2 a fair price. Lookin At Lucky will surely go closer with a better trip, and must be considered the main danger, while Paddy O’ Prado should be there or thereabouts. SCHOOLYARD DREAMS is taken as a good e/w bet for value seekers, given the fact that, his Tampa Bay Derby effort hinted that he´ll be capable of a huge performance when things fall right.
Preakness Stakes (Grade 1) (3yo) (Dirt) (3yo) Winner £370,370
Track: Fast Distance: 1m1f110y
Picks: Super Saver (win), Schoolyard Dreams (e/w)
Aikneite: Won well on debut before getting well beaten on his first Grade 1 start in the Three Chimneys (Ran with credit) behind Dublin; Held in seven runs in Graded company since and yet to show he´s really good enough for a race like this.
Schoolyard Dreams: Fast improving horse who is getting rapidly better with age and experience, as he showed when running huge race in Tampa Bay Derby, surging to the front with ease before the straight, only to idle and be caught on the line; Admittedly he is 6lbs worse off with Super Saver but looked best horse in race all over that day; Shouldn’t be judged on run in Wood Memorial latest (mucus in his throat in the build-up, race came too soon, steady pace no use) and major longshot.
Pleasant Prince: Beaten just a nose by Derby runner-up Ice Box three starts back, but his two subsequent efforts well short of that form, including when well behind Aikenite latest; hat form gives him very little recommendable chance.
Northern Giant: Has run some very good races but been well held in three runs in Graded company, including when last in the Arkansas Derby (Super Saver second) latest.
Yawaan Twist: Credible chance being that he’s only had 4 runs and has showed himself to be smart when runner-up in both the Gotham and the Illinois Derby; More needed but possibility that hse can improve considerably.
Jackson Bend: Didn´t get the best of trips in the Kentucky Derby and might not have been suited by the sloppy track, but yet to prove he´s up to this level.
Lookin At Lucky: Super talented horse as has been shown by his 4-5 record as a 2 year old but has met with trouble on four of his next 5 starts since, notably when sent off favourite for the Kentucky Derby, only to lose his chance when squeezed up against the rail, having started from the unfavourable inside stall; Possible we haven’t seen best of him yet and different test this week can only help.
Super Saver: Although a fine ride and sloppy track (combined with dream run inside the rail) helped him a lot when winning the Kentucky Derby, he still showed himself to be a rapidly improving colt and won with plenty in hand; Has a fair bit in hand based on that from and must be given every chance of a follow up here, while it’s worth nothing that his connections only worry (less than 2 weeks to get ready) applies to most, if not all of the runners here.
Caracortado: Although he ran on well after losing his place in the Santa Anita Derby latest, he needs to improve for the return to dirt, which doesn’t seem likely as 4 out of his 5 wins are on synthetics; Not discounted by any means though.
Paddy O’ Prado: Ran a huge race in the Kentucky Derby to be third and that form automatically puts him on premises here; No obvious excuse, though, so work to do to reverse form with Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky should get closer with a clearer run.
First Dude: Probably better than he showed when fifth in the Florida Derby and was only 1l behind Paddy O´Prado in the Blue Grass on synthetics last time; That horse improved markedly since though.
Dublin: Creditable seventh in the Kentucky Derby, but that his sixth straight defeat since Grade 1 success last year; positive jokey change but doesn’t strike me as quite good enough here.
VERDICT: The second leg of the Triple Crown gives us an interesting race with battled still to be settled. It can be said that SUPER SAVER had everything go right for him in the Kentucky Derby, but he won well and must be on the premises based on that form, making 5-2 a fair price. Lookin At Lucky will surely go closer with a better trip, and must be considered the main danger, while Paddy O’ Prado should be there or thereabouts. SCHOOLYARD DREAMS is taken as a good e/w bet for value seekers, given the fact that, his Tampa Bay Derby effort hinted that he´ll be capable of a huge performance when things fall right.
London Gold Cup
2.30 Newbury
Totescoop6 London Gold Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3YO only)
Winner £21,808
Picks: Verdant (win), Right Step e/w
VERDANT looked very good when collaring the long-time leader in a race not run to suit at Sandown last time and even a 9lbs rise may not be able to stop him, with stable vibes and form looking. Monterosso is hard to bypass as he shouldn’t have won last time and the second Elanora Duse is clearly better than a handicapper (nose third in Musidora) and he should go very close here. RIGHT STEP’S Newmarket form when second to Wigmore Hall last time is working out very well and he’s more than a good e/w bet at around 8/1.
Totescoop6 London Gold Cup Handicap (Class 2) (3YO only)
Winner £21,808
Picks: Verdant (win), Right Step e/w
VERDANT looked very good when collaring the long-time leader in a race not run to suit at Sandown last time and even a 9lbs rise may not be able to stop him, with stable vibes and form looking. Monterosso is hard to bypass as he shouldn’t have won last time and the second Elanora Duse is clearly better than a handicapper (nose third in Musidora) and he should go very close here. RIGHT STEP’S Newmarket form when second to Wigmore Hall last time is working out very well and he’s more than a good e/w bet at around 8/1.
Aston Park Stakes
2.00 Newbury
totepool Aston Park Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £22,708
Pick: Blizzard Blues (e/w)
The step up in trip and the fact he has run (should be fitter now) gives BLIZZARD BLUES a strong chance here and with his yard in the form they are in, and the form of the John Porter Stakes working out well very, he must hold a decent chance here and appeals at 7/1 in a race where all of the main contenders have something to answer.
totepool Aston Park Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £22,708
Pick: Blizzard Blues (e/w)
The step up in trip and the fact he has run (should be fitter now) gives BLIZZARD BLUES a strong chance here and with his yard in the form they are in, and the form of the John Porter Stakes working out well very, he must hold a decent chance here and appeals at 7/1 in a race where all of the main contenders have something to answer.
Lockinge Stakes 2010
3.05 Newbury
totesport.com Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (Straight) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £113,540
Picks: Paco Boy, The Cheka e/w
Kargali: May have improved a little even for the switch to a new stable when just getting better of Rayeni in soft ground Gladness Stakes; Has never run at higher than Group 3 level and step up in class may find him out.
Lord Shanakill: Good miler for Karl Burke, having landed Prix Jean Prat two starts ago and coming home fifth in the Sussex; Didn’t find Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint to his liking at all but should go well here for new and in – from Cecil yard.
Quqba: Really took off in 2009, improving from handicap company in April to a very near miss in Group 2 at Newmarket in October; Probably still improving but will need to do so and will have to be very sharp on return to take a hand.
Paco Boy: Top class miler who looked imperious when taking Bet365 Mile for second year on return; Was a beaten favourite in this last year but had an infected foot on ground too soft for him; No doubting he’s best horse in race and fact he’s had a run only helps his chances.
Pipedreamer: Ran very creditably last season in top class company, winning the Prix Dollar at Longchamp; Entitled to take a hand if none the worse for switch to Kevin Ryan yard.
Prince Of Dance: Unbeaten in 3 starts last year, showing infinite promise when winning 1 m listed event at Newmarket last backend; Started this season when well beaten behind Paco Boy in Bet365 Mile; Will have come on for that run, but needs to improve a lot to take a hand.
Stimulation: Looked very good in 2008 when landing Challenge Stakes at Newmarket but was restricted to only 2 runs last year, neither of them good enough to be winning this; This tough ask on seasonal reappearance.
The Cheka: Looked exceptional on debut as a 2 year old and has only had 3 runs since; Only seen once as a 3 year old, getting better of very useful horse in Ashram here in Conditions Stakes; Ran a very promising race in Bet364 Mile and may yet still take a high rank in milling division
Zacinto: Looked classy from word go but restricted to 5 starts, scoring well in listed race on belated return before second (didn't settle) to Delegator at Goodwood; Improved majorly on that when Giving Rip Van Winkle a real race in the QEII Stakes at Ascot; Took a bad step in Breeder’s Cup Mile (didn’t like the track) so that run can be discounted and still very much unexposed; Set to take high rank if improving again.
VERDICT: A good renewal of the Lockinge, with 2 class acts and some unexposed horses who could take a high rank in the Milling Division. While Zacinto manages to get closer to Rip Van Winkle than PACO BOY did, an infected foot and soft ground can be blamed for his rather weakish fourth in this race last year and the fact he’s already had a run when winning well at Sandown helps his cause. With 9 runners, there is an open spot for an e/w place and THE CHEKA is still very unexposed.
totesport.com Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (Straight) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £113,540
Picks: Paco Boy, The Cheka e/w
Kargali: May have improved a little even for the switch to a new stable when just getting better of Rayeni in soft ground Gladness Stakes; Has never run at higher than Group 3 level and step up in class may find him out.
Lord Shanakill: Good miler for Karl Burke, having landed Prix Jean Prat two starts ago and coming home fifth in the Sussex; Didn’t find Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint to his liking at all but should go well here for new and in – from Cecil yard.
Quqba: Really took off in 2009, improving from handicap company in April to a very near miss in Group 2 at Newmarket in October; Probably still improving but will need to do so and will have to be very sharp on return to take a hand.
Paco Boy: Top class miler who looked imperious when taking Bet365 Mile for second year on return; Was a beaten favourite in this last year but had an infected foot on ground too soft for him; No doubting he’s best horse in race and fact he’s had a run only helps his chances.
Pipedreamer: Ran very creditably last season in top class company, winning the Prix Dollar at Longchamp; Entitled to take a hand if none the worse for switch to Kevin Ryan yard.
Prince Of Dance: Unbeaten in 3 starts last year, showing infinite promise when winning 1 m listed event at Newmarket last backend; Started this season when well beaten behind Paco Boy in Bet365 Mile; Will have come on for that run, but needs to improve a lot to take a hand.
Stimulation: Looked very good in 2008 when landing Challenge Stakes at Newmarket but was restricted to only 2 runs last year, neither of them good enough to be winning this; This tough ask on seasonal reappearance.
The Cheka: Looked exceptional on debut as a 2 year old and has only had 3 runs since; Only seen once as a 3 year old, getting better of very useful horse in Ashram here in Conditions Stakes; Ran a very promising race in Bet364 Mile and may yet still take a high rank in milling division
Zacinto: Looked classy from word go but restricted to 5 starts, scoring well in listed race on belated return before second (didn't settle) to Delegator at Goodwood; Improved majorly on that when Giving Rip Van Winkle a real race in the QEII Stakes at Ascot; Took a bad step in Breeder’s Cup Mile (didn’t like the track) so that run can be discounted and still very much unexposed; Set to take high rank if improving again.
VERDICT: A good renewal of the Lockinge, with 2 class acts and some unexposed horses who could take a high rank in the Milling Division. While Zacinto manages to get closer to Rip Van Winkle than PACO BOY did, an infected foot and soft ground can be blamed for his rather weakish fourth in this race last year and the fact he’s already had a run when winning well at Sandown helps his cause. With 9 runners, there is an open spot for an e/w place and THE CHEKA is still very unexposed.
Wednesday 12 May 2010
Dante Stakes 2010
2.40 York
totesport Dante Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £85,155
Pick: Chabal
Cape Blanco: Made his debut in conditions company as a 2 year old and made it a winning one, fighting on strongly to get the better of decent looking Balgioni; Unbeaten in 2 further starts last year, taking the eye when easily winning Tyros Stakes and then following up in Futurity Stakes; That form gives him every chance but will need run badly and no real strong confidence behind him.
Chabal: Justified good home reputation when accounting for Behereani and odds on Dyansty on debut at Leopardstown before then running big race to finish second in National Stakes at Curragh; Way too free in Dewhurst and much more like it when easily beating Azmeel (who won Dee Stakes in good style next time out) in Bet365 Classic Trial; Will have come on for the run and every chance here.
Circumvent: Entitled to come on for the run when third behind Simon De Montfort in a Group 3 at Longchamp last month; That form useful, as is his Group 3 win as a Juvenile, but one feels he must do better here to take a real hand.
Coordinated Cut: 16/1 chance for Derby before he made his easy winning debut at Doncaster St Ledger Festival and faced a different test altogether when well beaten second last in the RP Trophy (left Peter Champple Hyam after); Undeniably impressive when coming to win sales race by a short head on debut after being practically stopped 2 out, and having had only 3 runs, there could be more to come (will also have improved for run);Another major player.
Workforce: Made highly promising start to career when 6-length winner of 7f maiden at Goodwood on only start, quickening through from rear; That form has been boosted majorly since by second winning big event at Newmarket; Looks sure to improve a lot for step up in trip and major player here, although 3 of 5 rivals do come here race fit.
VERDICT: In an open year, this is a typically competitive renewal of the Dante, with all runners having some sort of claim. Cape Blanco looked like he could be anything at 3 last year but the form of his stable’s seasonal reappearance makes him unbackable. Coordinated Cut was practically stopped in his run in a decent event last time and having come on for the run, must be noted as a major player here. He still fills the “unexposed” bracket for me, but there should be a big show. Workforce looked amazing on debut and the stable form gives another boost, but I was taken with CHABAL when he won the Bet365 Classic Trial and the fact he has had a Group form boost in Azmeel gives a lot of confidence for another big run today, never mind the fact he should be fitter than last time.
totesport Dante Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £85,155
Pick: Chabal
Cape Blanco: Made his debut in conditions company as a 2 year old and made it a winning one, fighting on strongly to get the better of decent looking Balgioni; Unbeaten in 2 further starts last year, taking the eye when easily winning Tyros Stakes and then following up in Futurity Stakes; That form gives him every chance but will need run badly and no real strong confidence behind him.
Chabal: Justified good home reputation when accounting for Behereani and odds on Dyansty on debut at Leopardstown before then running big race to finish second in National Stakes at Curragh; Way too free in Dewhurst and much more like it when easily beating Azmeel (who won Dee Stakes in good style next time out) in Bet365 Classic Trial; Will have come on for the run and every chance here.
Circumvent: Entitled to come on for the run when third behind Simon De Montfort in a Group 3 at Longchamp last month; That form useful, as is his Group 3 win as a Juvenile, but one feels he must do better here to take a real hand.
Coordinated Cut: 16/1 chance for Derby before he made his easy winning debut at Doncaster St Ledger Festival and faced a different test altogether when well beaten second last in the RP Trophy (left Peter Champple Hyam after); Undeniably impressive when coming to win sales race by a short head on debut after being practically stopped 2 out, and having had only 3 runs, there could be more to come (will also have improved for run);Another major player.
Workforce: Made highly promising start to career when 6-length winner of 7f maiden at Goodwood on only start, quickening through from rear; That form has been boosted majorly since by second winning big event at Newmarket; Looks sure to improve a lot for step up in trip and major player here, although 3 of 5 rivals do come here race fit.
VERDICT: In an open year, this is a typically competitive renewal of the Dante, with all runners having some sort of claim. Cape Blanco looked like he could be anything at 3 last year but the form of his stable’s seasonal reappearance makes him unbackable. Coordinated Cut was practically stopped in his run in a decent event last time and having come on for the run, must be noted as a major player here. He still fills the “unexposed” bracket for me, but there should be a big show. Workforce looked amazing on debut and the stable form gives another boost, but I was taken with CHABAL when he won the Bet365 Classic Trial and the fact he has had a Group form boost in Azmeel gives a lot of confidence for another big run today, never mind the fact he should be fitter than last time.
Tuesday 11 May 2010
Musidora Stakes 2010
Avaite: Created good impression when winning both starts, having plenty in hand when beating useful opposition over 1m at Ascot on return; Sure to improve a lot for the debut run and must be respected, although will need to get this longer trip very well.
Bikini Babe: Very head – strong as a 2 year old,, and was better than the bare form of her good results last year; Showed she had trained on with 2 very good runs in Meydan; Decent horse who was brushed aside by colts in Classic Trial, and should take a hand.
Cabaret: Stoutly bred Galileo filly who suffered from serious greenness on debut, labouring for a long time before making some eye-catching progress into 2nd late on; Different story entirely when winning by 3 lengths at the Curragh always up with the pace and then kicking clear along with Ronan Irish on the way to a comfortable 3 length success and did the same again when winning Silver Flash Stakes; Run in Marcel Boussac can be written off as the saddle slipped, and retains plenty of potential, especially for a longer trip.
Cracking Lass: Wasn't disgraced in valuable sales races at Newmarket final 2 starts last year and made good return (for which she will improve) behind Coordinated Cut in Sales race; Might need to come on again but could take a hand in open event.
Elanora Duse: Showed much promise for better things in 3-y-o career when landing 1m Kempton maiden and duly built on that when strong-finishing second in handicap on seasonal debut; Not to be discarded taking into account improvement she could make in an open race.
Gold Bubbles: Winner at Leopardstown on debut and has improved into useful sort since (undone by draw when sixth in Lowther Stakes); Does look very exposed now and has stamina to prove, while racing freely is a negative.
Pink Symphony: Progressed a lot with racing as a 2 year old, looking sure to improve at 3 and did so, when being strong at finish despite carrying head high when successful in Newbury maiden over this trip; Likely to make a lot of improvement for that run and can’t be dismissed here.
Red Fantasy: Left juvenile form behind when excellent second in 1m3f listed event at Newmarket earlier this month; Big plus that there is no reason to think that flatters her, but will need to step up again.
VERDICT: A very open renewal of this race. The 2 fillies that jump to mind as credible Oaks winners are Avaite and CABARET, with Avaite having a nagging doubt about her stamina (although Dansil’s best performers all got 12f and the mare & damsire both got this trip)and Cabaret’s stable runners all badly needing the run. The race is there for the taking. My idea of the likeliest to upset them would be PINK SYMPHONY, and at a likely 14/1 she appeals as a small e/w.
Bikini Babe: Very head – strong as a 2 year old,, and was better than the bare form of her good results last year; Showed she had trained on with 2 very good runs in Meydan; Decent horse who was brushed aside by colts in Classic Trial, and should take a hand.
Cabaret: Stoutly bred Galileo filly who suffered from serious greenness on debut, labouring for a long time before making some eye-catching progress into 2nd late on; Different story entirely when winning by 3 lengths at the Curragh always up with the pace and then kicking clear along with Ronan Irish on the way to a comfortable 3 length success and did the same again when winning Silver Flash Stakes; Run in Marcel Boussac can be written off as the saddle slipped, and retains plenty of potential, especially for a longer trip.
Cracking Lass: Wasn't disgraced in valuable sales races at Newmarket final 2 starts last year and made good return (for which she will improve) behind Coordinated Cut in Sales race; Might need to come on again but could take a hand in open event.
Elanora Duse: Showed much promise for better things in 3-y-o career when landing 1m Kempton maiden and duly built on that when strong-finishing second in handicap on seasonal debut; Not to be discarded taking into account improvement she could make in an open race.
Gold Bubbles: Winner at Leopardstown on debut and has improved into useful sort since (undone by draw when sixth in Lowther Stakes); Does look very exposed now and has stamina to prove, while racing freely is a negative.
Pink Symphony: Progressed a lot with racing as a 2 year old, looking sure to improve at 3 and did so, when being strong at finish despite carrying head high when successful in Newbury maiden over this trip; Likely to make a lot of improvement for that run and can’t be dismissed here.
Red Fantasy: Left juvenile form behind when excellent second in 1m3f listed event at Newmarket earlier this month; Big plus that there is no reason to think that flatters her, but will need to step up again.
VERDICT: A very open renewal of this race. The 2 fillies that jump to mind as credible Oaks winners are Avaite and CABARET, with Avaite having a nagging doubt about her stamina (although Dansil’s best performers all got 12f and the mare & damsire both got this trip)and Cabaret’s stable runners all badly needing the run. The race is there for the taking. My idea of the likeliest to upset them would be PINK SYMPHONY, and at a likely 14/1 she appeals as a small e/w.
Saturday 8 May 2010
Haydock 8th May 2010
2.00 Haydock
totescoop6 Spring Trophy Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £22,708
Pick: Mia’s Boy
MIA’S Boy has to hold a good shout based on his 3 runs this season, as the ultra-consistent horse is sure to be on the premises and Ordnance Row may well need the run.
2.30 Haydock
totequadpot Long Distance Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £15,655
Pick: Penlyan Star(e/w)
PENLAYAN STAR should go nicely from an opening mark of 124 as his from stacks up well, he open to improvement and should like this longer trip as well. Pokenoket’s run when finding just the in-form Banjaxed Girl too good two starts ago now reads very well and after a bold bid over this trip last time she looks set for another big run. Picture This hasn't had that much racing recently but has shown progressive form since returning from his latest absence. Mous Of Men won a decent contest at Sandown on the last time we saw him and if his stamina holds he'll have every chance.
3.35 Haydock
totesport.com Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £42,758
Pick: Overturn, Dan Breen e/w
A very attractive betting race where penalty hold chances and make a lot of appeal. OVERTURN has been proving unstoppable of late and a 8lbs rise for a pretty easy win in the Scottish Champion Hurdle is very fair handicapping in my view and if still improving, he should go pretty well here too. Hunterview won well last time but it’s well worth remembering that he’s on an even higher mark for his win than for the Fred Winter and he was unable to dominate there. Arcalis and Gloucester are both weighted to reverse form with Overturn but one doesn’t find as much as he should and the other might like further. Aatther will love a strong pace but just doesn’t seem to find anything off the bridle. Touabab’s form at first glance looks great but he was getting weight from Soldatino for that and would need to impove. A lot of people have forgotten about DAN BREEN, who wasn’t given a hard time when a mistake ended his chance at Aintree last time and could go well, having been overlooked.
totescoop6 Spring Trophy Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £22,708
Pick: Mia’s Boy
MIA’S Boy has to hold a good shout based on his 3 runs this season, as the ultra-consistent horse is sure to be on the premises and Ordnance Row may well need the run.
2.30 Haydock
totequadpot Long Distance Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £15,655
Pick: Penlyan Star(e/w)
PENLAYAN STAR should go nicely from an opening mark of 124 as his from stacks up well, he open to improvement and should like this longer trip as well. Pokenoket’s run when finding just the in-form Banjaxed Girl too good two starts ago now reads very well and after a bold bid over this trip last time she looks set for another big run. Picture This hasn't had that much racing recently but has shown progressive form since returning from his latest absence. Mous Of Men won a decent contest at Sandown on the last time we saw him and if his stamina holds he'll have every chance.
3.35 Haydock
totesport.com Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £42,758
Pick: Overturn, Dan Breen e/w
A very attractive betting race where penalty hold chances and make a lot of appeal. OVERTURN has been proving unstoppable of late and a 8lbs rise for a pretty easy win in the Scottish Champion Hurdle is very fair handicapping in my view and if still improving, he should go pretty well here too. Hunterview won well last time but it’s well worth remembering that he’s on an even higher mark for his win than for the Fred Winter and he was unable to dominate there. Arcalis and Gloucester are both weighted to reverse form with Overturn but one doesn’t find as much as he should and the other might like further. Aatther will love a strong pace but just doesn’t seem to find anything off the bridle. Touabab’s form at first glance looks great but he was getting weight from Soldatino for that and would need to impove. A lot of people have forgotten about DAN BREEN, who wasn’t given a hard time when a mistake ended his chance at Aintree last time and could go well, having been overlooked.
Victoria Cup 2010 & Supporting Race
2.50 Ascot
Bovis Homes Fillies' Handicap (Str) (Class 2) (3YO plus)
Winner £29,142 - 14 run
Pick: Clairvoyance e/w
Not many that take the eye here, although Alsace Lorraine is a worthy favourite who could go on to big things this year. Off Chance should relish the likely strong pace at this trip after enhancing her progressive profile in defeat at Haydock last time. CLAIRVOYANCE is on a fair mark for her efforts and is taken to find the places here, while Blue Angel could do the same.
3.25 Ascot
Totesport Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £52,964
Pick: Oratory, Street Power (e/w)
Again, not many that actually appeal a lot to me. Mabati holds an excellent chance and is clearly thriving at the moment but I’ll leave him alone at his price off 9-8. Castles In The Air is an uncomplicated ride who should go well following his win last time, but is significantly higher in the weights now, and even with hi rider’s claim, is still higher than when finishing eighth in his last Heritage Handicap here. Prime Exhibit should go well following his Lincoln second if he can get into the race properly from his draw of 4. Makkamen is useful but still a little high in the weights and his form is a worry. One Way Or Another holds a decent e/w chance. ORATORY must hold a decent chance based on his third in the Spring Cup and with positive stable vibes, he gets the vote. Marjaa should go well but is 5lbs worse off with Oratory. STREET POWER is a little bit big at around 25 – 28/1 and gets the second vote.
Bovis Homes Fillies' Handicap (Str) (Class 2) (3YO plus)
Winner £29,142 - 14 run
Pick: Clairvoyance e/w
Not many that take the eye here, although Alsace Lorraine is a worthy favourite who could go on to big things this year. Off Chance should relish the likely strong pace at this trip after enhancing her progressive profile in defeat at Haydock last time. CLAIRVOYANCE is on a fair mark for her efforts and is taken to find the places here, while Blue Angel could do the same.
3.25 Ascot
Totesport Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £52,964
Pick: Oratory, Street Power (e/w)
Again, not many that actually appeal a lot to me. Mabati holds an excellent chance and is clearly thriving at the moment but I’ll leave him alone at his price off 9-8. Castles In The Air is an uncomplicated ride who should go well following his win last time, but is significantly higher in the weights now, and even with hi rider’s claim, is still higher than when finishing eighth in his last Heritage Handicap here. Prime Exhibit should go well following his Lincoln second if he can get into the race properly from his draw of 4. Makkamen is useful but still a little high in the weights and his form is a worry. One Way Or Another holds a decent e/w chance. ORATORY must hold a decent chance based on his third in the Spring Cup and with positive stable vibes, he gets the vote. Marjaa should go well but is 5lbs worse off with Oratory. STREET POWER is a little bit big at around 25 – 28/1 and gets the second vote.
Ascot - John Doyle Buckhounds Stakes
2.20 Ascot
John Doyle Buckhounds Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £22,708
Pick: Duncan
Duncan: Won this race after taking Epsom handicap in good style last year and then went on to finish fourth in Coronation Cup, showing his class; Bombed after than but he goes well fresh and no doubting he can still do better.
Hatton Flight: Improved a lot last spring, notching up a quick hat – trick in handicaps; Seemed to stop after that and this is stiff task even at this best, based on his long finish last at Chester when last seen.
Traffic Guard: Has some serious form and if he could get back his career best second to New Approach, he would come under some serious consideration; Also did well when slamming useful horses at Windsor last summer; Will have improved for the run last time and must hold every chance.
Barshiba: Consistent mare who’s run series of cracking races and last season no exception, especially when upped back to 1m4f for her last 2 starts, which include a Yorkshire Oaks among an impressive rout of the Plantation Stud Stakes field under a hefty penalty; Major contender if fit for this race, as she usually needs the run.
Starfala: Was second in this last year and ran well all season, although she has a lot more on her plate this time round and might need the run a fair bit; Behind Barshiba on form.
VERDICT: Although DUNCAN is a short price, he’s much the best of these on form and should take all the beating in attempting to follow up his win in the race last year. Barshiba will give them all a scrap if fit, while Traffic Guard has been overpriced at 7/1 and would have been the e/w pick if there were eight places.
John Doyle Buckhounds Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £22,708
Pick: Duncan
Duncan: Won this race after taking Epsom handicap in good style last year and then went on to finish fourth in Coronation Cup, showing his class; Bombed after than but he goes well fresh and no doubting he can still do better.
Hatton Flight: Improved a lot last spring, notching up a quick hat – trick in handicaps; Seemed to stop after that and this is stiff task even at this best, based on his long finish last at Chester when last seen.
Traffic Guard: Has some serious form and if he could get back his career best second to New Approach, he would come under some serious consideration; Also did well when slamming useful horses at Windsor last summer; Will have improved for the run last time and must hold every chance.
Barshiba: Consistent mare who’s run series of cracking races and last season no exception, especially when upped back to 1m4f for her last 2 starts, which include a Yorkshire Oaks among an impressive rout of the Plantation Stud Stakes field under a hefty penalty; Major contender if fit for this race, as she usually needs the run.
Starfala: Was second in this last year and ran well all season, although she has a lot more on her plate this time round and might need the run a fair bit; Behind Barshiba on form.
VERDICT: Although DUNCAN is a short price, he’s much the best of these on form and should take all the beating in attempting to follow up his win in the race last year. Barshiba will give them all a scrap if fit, while Traffic Guard has been overpriced at 7/1 and would have been the e/w pick if there were eight places.
Chartwell Fillies Stake
2.10 Lingfield
Totesport 0800 221 221 Chartwell Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Reggane
Ahla Wasal; Well below the form that saw her take a listed contest (albeit a limited handicap) last year based on her first 3 runs this calendar year; Hard to see her taking big hand based on this.
Golden Stream: Didn’t really shape as though sprinting was her game when last seen in October, but excuses for that defeat; Confirmed that with reappearance but this just her cup of tea and should take a hand.
Penny’s Gift: Would be major player on her earlier form last year( was closer to Goldikova than Reggane was) but she ended last year much below her best; Returning for in – form yard fresh and must enter calculations.
Pyrrha: Didn't stop improving in handicaps, landing a brace of victories at Newmarket last summer (usually well supported); Entitled to keep improving but this is much tougher after 167 days off; Should be respected.
Reggane: Holds a very big chance on her Coronation Stakes 2nd, open to improvement with only 5 runs, and also well worth another chance having suffered from an inflamed trachea in the Prix Rotschild; Probably not recovered from that when sixth on her last run, and must have chance here at lower level over trip which should suit.
Areeda: Although she likes this trip, the fact she's been beaten twice in handicaps off mark of 75 since highlights the task she faces.
Queen’s Grace: Form entitles her to take a decent hand in this (finished ahead of Puff, who was fourth behind Special Duty in the Chevley Park Stakes and then took the Fred Darling)but still not a proven stayer; Will give them all a scrap if getting 7f.
VERDICT: Queen’s Grace will give them all a scrap if she gets 7f, while Golden Stream should like this test a lot more, while Penny’s Gift and Phyrrha should be respected if getting support, but REGGANE is still unexposed and sets the standard on any of her group runs if you look at it, not least her second to Ghanaati in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last year.
Totesport 0800 221 221 Chartwell Fillies' Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Reggane
Ahla Wasal; Well below the form that saw her take a listed contest (albeit a limited handicap) last year based on her first 3 runs this calendar year; Hard to see her taking big hand based on this.
Golden Stream: Didn’t really shape as though sprinting was her game when last seen in October, but excuses for that defeat; Confirmed that with reappearance but this just her cup of tea and should take a hand.
Penny’s Gift: Would be major player on her earlier form last year( was closer to Goldikova than Reggane was) but she ended last year much below her best; Returning for in – form yard fresh and must enter calculations.
Pyrrha: Didn't stop improving in handicaps, landing a brace of victories at Newmarket last summer (usually well supported); Entitled to keep improving but this is much tougher after 167 days off; Should be respected.
Reggane: Holds a very big chance on her Coronation Stakes 2nd, open to improvement with only 5 runs, and also well worth another chance having suffered from an inflamed trachea in the Prix Rotschild; Probably not recovered from that when sixth on her last run, and must have chance here at lower level over trip which should suit.
Areeda: Although she likes this trip, the fact she's been beaten twice in handicaps off mark of 75 since highlights the task she faces.
Queen’s Grace: Form entitles her to take a decent hand in this (finished ahead of Puff, who was fourth behind Special Duty in the Chevley Park Stakes and then took the Fred Darling)but still not a proven stayer; Will give them all a scrap if getting 7f.
VERDICT: Queen’s Grace will give them all a scrap if she gets 7f, while Golden Stream should like this test a lot more, while Penny’s Gift and Phyrrha should be respected if getting support, but REGGANE is still unexposed and sets the standard on any of her group runs if you look at it, not least her second to Ghanaati in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last year.
Lingfield Oaks Trial
2.40 Lingfield
totesportcasino.com Oaks Trial Stakes (Listed Fillies) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £28,385
Timepiece: Shaped really well on her first 2 starts and was made Oaks favourite on back of her listed win over 1m; Shouldn’t be judged on her fourth in the Fielden Stakes as she was hampered at a crucial time and this trip should being about the best in her; Now is time for her to prove she’s a worth Oaks favourite.
Bebopaula: Has improved from her sole eye-catching effort at 2 when she landed 2 races, dotting up easily last time; That off only 68 though, so a lot to do in this race.
Blast Furnace: Caught the eye when 6½ lengths fifth of 11 on debut at Newbury last month; Will have learnt a fair bit but will need to have learned.
Celidh House: Impressed when overcoming tardy start to win 1m maiden at Nottingham on her only start at 2, and showed serious promise for connections successful in this in 2007 and second following year with subsequent Oaks winner Look Here; Must be respected on that basis.
Dyna Waltz: Fillies Mile fifth is on the formbook the best run by any horse here, and while she disappointed last time, she shouldn’t be written off just yet on that run; Might need to improve.
Golden Waters: Fifth in maidens at Salisbury at 2 yrs and Sandown (flashed tail) 2 weeks ago; Has to improve a lot on those runs.
VERDICT: It’s time for TIMEPIECE to cement her position at the head of the Oaks market after promising run at the Craven meeting last month, for which she should improve. She’s no price at 4/6 for this though. If judged by her connection’s excellent record in the race, Celidh House should give her most to do, whole Bebopaula will have bigger days ahead of her.
totesportcasino.com Oaks Trial Stakes (Listed Fillies) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £28,385
Timepiece: Shaped really well on her first 2 starts and was made Oaks favourite on back of her listed win over 1m; Shouldn’t be judged on her fourth in the Fielden Stakes as she was hampered at a crucial time and this trip should being about the best in her; Now is time for her to prove she’s a worth Oaks favourite.
Bebopaula: Has improved from her sole eye-catching effort at 2 when she landed 2 races, dotting up easily last time; That off only 68 though, so a lot to do in this race.
Blast Furnace: Caught the eye when 6½ lengths fifth of 11 on debut at Newbury last month; Will have learnt a fair bit but will need to have learned.
Celidh House: Impressed when overcoming tardy start to win 1m maiden at Nottingham on her only start at 2, and showed serious promise for connections successful in this in 2007 and second following year with subsequent Oaks winner Look Here; Must be respected on that basis.
Dyna Waltz: Fillies Mile fifth is on the formbook the best run by any horse here, and while she disappointed last time, she shouldn’t be written off just yet on that run; Might need to improve.
Golden Waters: Fifth in maidens at Salisbury at 2 yrs and Sandown (flashed tail) 2 weeks ago; Has to improve a lot on those runs.
VERDICT: It’s time for TIMEPIECE to cement her position at the head of the Oaks market after promising run at the Craven meeting last month, for which she should improve. She’s no price at 4/6 for this though. If judged by her connection’s excellent record in the race, Celidh House should give her most to do, whole Bebopaula will have bigger days ahead of her.
Lingfield Derby Trial
3.10 Lingfield
totesport.com Derby Trial Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Desert Creek
Bullet Train: Lot to like about his one and only run last season (quitely fancied for Derby off the back of that) and was still green when collared in Newbury conditions event; Will need to be better than that, but has yet to achieve his potential and will improve for comeback run.
Captain James Cook: Improved massively for the step up in trip to 12 furlongs (was lame when running over 7f on debut, turf) when just getting better of Behtarini over the AW at Dundalk; From that the runner – up held is strong and he is entitled to come on a lot, but stable still not totally hitting right gears.
Desert Creek: Open to a lot of improvement after his striking debut win in at the Craven meeting last month; That form is working out nicely to say the least and he could easily be group class; in right hands to go on.
Don Carlos: Arguably brings the best form to the table by finishing fourth in the Criterium De Saint Cloud last year on his final start; He needed the run badly on reappearance and can be judged much better than that, although he’s got something to prove after that and is second strong on jockey bookings.
Dubawi Phantom: Won fair maiden in good style (2nd has won since and was thought highly enough to try Group company); Then went on to run well in succession of races (including Craven Stakes) and that form is solid but maybe a little unspectacular.
Hot Prospect: Worth another chance and shouldn’t be judged on his listed failure last time as a 2 year old; Beat the Autumn Stakes winner (form not great) previously and made a good return in good sales race last time; Good enough to win.
Togiak: Has shown a willing attitude on all his starts, particularly his maiden win; Has a hard task on today.
VERDICT: The Ballydoyle team are on a hat – trick In this race and while Captain James Cook and Don Carlos are expected to make a lot of improvement form their debuts, that hasn’t been a deterrent for some of their stable’s runners this week and this is a race where no horse can be totally discounted. Bullet Train will make a lot of improvement form his debut (collared when still green) although he needs to improve off the back of that and the form has been done no favours at all. This is a big step up for DESERT CREEK but he impressed when landing his maiden and may be useful enough to take this.
totesport.com Derby Trial Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Desert Creek
Bullet Train: Lot to like about his one and only run last season (quitely fancied for Derby off the back of that) and was still green when collared in Newbury conditions event; Will need to be better than that, but has yet to achieve his potential and will improve for comeback run.
Captain James Cook: Improved massively for the step up in trip to 12 furlongs (was lame when running over 7f on debut, turf) when just getting better of Behtarini over the AW at Dundalk; From that the runner – up held is strong and he is entitled to come on a lot, but stable still not totally hitting right gears.
Desert Creek: Open to a lot of improvement after his striking debut win in at the Craven meeting last month; That form is working out nicely to say the least and he could easily be group class; in right hands to go on.
Don Carlos: Arguably brings the best form to the table by finishing fourth in the Criterium De Saint Cloud last year on his final start; He needed the run badly on reappearance and can be judged much better than that, although he’s got something to prove after that and is second strong on jockey bookings.
Dubawi Phantom: Won fair maiden in good style (2nd has won since and was thought highly enough to try Group company); Then went on to run well in succession of races (including Craven Stakes) and that form is solid but maybe a little unspectacular.
Hot Prospect: Worth another chance and shouldn’t be judged on his listed failure last time as a 2 year old; Beat the Autumn Stakes winner (form not great) previously and made a good return in good sales race last time; Good enough to win.
Togiak: Has shown a willing attitude on all his starts, particularly his maiden win; Has a hard task on today.
VERDICT: The Ballydoyle team are on a hat – trick In this race and while Captain James Cook and Don Carlos are expected to make a lot of improvement form their debuts, that hasn’t been a deterrent for some of their stable’s runners this week and this is a race where no horse can be totally discounted. Bullet Train will make a lot of improvement form his debut (collared when still green) although he needs to improve off the back of that and the form has been done no favours at all. This is a big step up for DESERT CREEK but he impressed when landing his maiden and may be useful enough to take this.
Monday 3 May 2010
Curragh today
Hope you all have a good day, and with some luck, I'll be doing all 3 days of Chester's May Meeting as well.
Curragh
2.15
Aussie Rules European Breeders Fund Maiden (2YO only)
Winner €12,075
An open race where the Ballydoyle pair Park Avenue and Snow Mountain should go well, but they tend to come on for the run and RADHARCNAFARRAIGE shaped with plenty of promise on debut and should go close at least here.
Pick: Radnafarcarridge
2.45
Dylan Thomas European Breeders Fund Tetrarch Stakes (Group 3) (3YO only)
Winner €39,000
Azanavour must be considered good enough to take a hand in this after his impressive win at Navan first time out an is probably a worth favourite, although that wasn’t the strongest of maidens. FREE JUDGEMENT should hold a good chance here although one would have to take his chances on the trust that he needed the run first time out. If so, then he’s got to hold a chance. Hacienda is obviously well thought of too, although he won’t get an easy lead in the race. Dyanasty should go well but will improve masses for the run. ELUSIVE AWARD is an interesting choice for a small e/w seeing as he’s better than the runs that he has posted in the Racing Post Trophy and Ballysax Stakes, and could have more to come.
Pick: Free Judgement (win), Elusive Award (e/w )
3.15
Oratorio European Breeders Fund Athasi Stakes (Group 3) (3YO plus)
Winner €48,750
Although she’s got a fair bit to prove following a bad run last time out, and she’s got a tough field to overcome, FAMOUS is probably the best of these on her day and can be taken to bounce back for a very much needed run last time. Pollen looked better than ever when scoring here on her return but is penalised for that success, so looks vulnerable while Lolly For Dolly has to go well although is untried at this level. Duchess Of Foxland was in front of the pick last time out, so should also be in the shake – up.
Pick: Famous (win)
3.45
P.G.Duffy & Sons Mazda Handicap (50-80) (3YO plus)
Winner €7,246
A devilishly tricky 30 runner affair. The booking of Johnny Murtagh on WEALDMORE WAVE gives a lot of encouragement. Book Of Numbers and Lord Rathmindven should get involved.
Pick: Wealdmore Wave (e/w)
4.15
High Chaparral European Breeders Fund Mooresbridge Stakes (Group 3) (4YO plus)
Winner €48,750
Better ground should put bring about improvement in FAME AND GLORY although he’s no betting proposition.
5.15
Rockview (q.r.) Flat Race (4YO to 7YO)
Winner €18,200
This will be a lot easier for OLD MACDONALD than the Grade 1 Bumper at Punchestown last time and at 13/2 he gives the impression of being a very good each / way bet.
Curragh
2.15
Aussie Rules European Breeders Fund Maiden (2YO only)
Winner €12,075
An open race where the Ballydoyle pair Park Avenue and Snow Mountain should go well, but they tend to come on for the run and RADHARCNAFARRAIGE shaped with plenty of promise on debut and should go close at least here.
Pick: Radnafarcarridge
2.45
Dylan Thomas European Breeders Fund Tetrarch Stakes (Group 3) (3YO only)
Winner €39,000
Azanavour must be considered good enough to take a hand in this after his impressive win at Navan first time out an is probably a worth favourite, although that wasn’t the strongest of maidens. FREE JUDGEMENT should hold a good chance here although one would have to take his chances on the trust that he needed the run first time out. If so, then he’s got to hold a chance. Hacienda is obviously well thought of too, although he won’t get an easy lead in the race. Dyanasty should go well but will improve masses for the run. ELUSIVE AWARD is an interesting choice for a small e/w seeing as he’s better than the runs that he has posted in the Racing Post Trophy and Ballysax Stakes, and could have more to come.
Pick: Free Judgement (win), Elusive Award (e/w )
3.15
Oratorio European Breeders Fund Athasi Stakes (Group 3) (3YO plus)
Winner €48,750
Although she’s got a fair bit to prove following a bad run last time out, and she’s got a tough field to overcome, FAMOUS is probably the best of these on her day and can be taken to bounce back for a very much needed run last time. Pollen looked better than ever when scoring here on her return but is penalised for that success, so looks vulnerable while Lolly For Dolly has to go well although is untried at this level. Duchess Of Foxland was in front of the pick last time out, so should also be in the shake – up.
Pick: Famous (win)
3.45
P.G.Duffy & Sons Mazda Handicap (50-80) (3YO plus)
Winner €7,246
A devilishly tricky 30 runner affair. The booking of Johnny Murtagh on WEALDMORE WAVE gives a lot of encouragement. Book Of Numbers and Lord Rathmindven should get involved.
Pick: Wealdmore Wave (e/w)
4.15
High Chaparral European Breeders Fund Mooresbridge Stakes (Group 3) (4YO plus)
Winner €48,750
Better ground should put bring about improvement in FAME AND GLORY although he’s no betting proposition.
5.15
Rockview (q.r.) Flat Race (4YO to 7YO)
Winner €18,200
This will be a lot easier for OLD MACDONALD than the Grade 1 Bumper at Punchestown last time and at 13/2 he gives the impression of being a very good each / way bet.
Sunday 2 May 2010
Newmarket Guineas Undercard - Day 2
Newmarket 2.05
StanJames.com Handicap (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £31,155
Picks: Class Is Class, Record Breaker
With so many horses dangerously treated on their best form last season, and so many progressive horses, not a race to be banking or going big on. CLASS IS CLASS and RECORD BREAKER, with neither being confident.
Newmarket 3.55
Bettingmadeeasy At StanJames.com Handicap (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £31,155
Picks: Genki, Enact (e/w)
Another tricky handicap. I can’t leave GENKI out of the equation after his great season last year. ENACT could be better this than last year, and at 9/1 should go well.
StanJames.com Handicap (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £31,155
Picks: Class Is Class, Record Breaker
With so many horses dangerously treated on their best form last season, and so many progressive horses, not a race to be banking or going big on. CLASS IS CLASS and RECORD BREAKER, with neither being confident.
Newmarket 3.55
Bettingmadeeasy At StanJames.com Handicap (Class 2) (4YO plus)
Winner £31,155
Picks: Genki, Enact (e/w)
Another tricky handicap. I can’t leave GENKI out of the equation after his great season last year. ENACT could be better this than last year, and at 9/1 should go well.
Dahila Stakes 2010
2.40 Newmarket
StanJames.com Dahlia Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies And Mares) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Strawberrydaquri (win)
Annabelle’s Charm: Won a listed race at Bath last summer but too keen in 2 of her 3 subsequent starts; Has a lot on the trouble the best of these.
Badiat Alzaman: Highly tried in 2009 (was with David Simcock) after winning early-season maiden at Warwick; Looks likely to be outclassed here on ratings.
Honimere: Won 3 times around this trip but not this level last year, best of them being an – all the way from the front handicap win here; Good fourth on the AW to return with but lot more to contend with here and will have it tough.
Moonlife: Won 2 out of her four runs last year, scoring nicely with a double last backend, including a listed race; Will need to step up to take a hand, but every chance she could do so.
Plaisterer: Landed 2 handicaps over 1m2f last year despite flashing her tail; Well held in listed race when last seen in November, though.
Spacious: Made really promising start to classic career with a in 2nd in the 1,000 Guineas and then 4th in the Coronation Stakes, where she was outstayed; Good efforts since, with her best one being her Windsor Forest win at the Royal Ascot meeting; Good 3rd behind Heaven Sent and Goldikova in the Falmouth; Showed that she can run on / off when running badly in Nassau Stakes; Was in - front of Strawberrydaquiri when third in the Sun Chariot last time, but I would have concerns over her needing the run (that tends to be the case) and her consistency (put in some bad efforts last season).
Strawberrydaquiri: Did nothing but progress last year, notching a 4 - timer with best and 3rd Listed win at Sandown under a heavy penalty, giving her a mark of 113; Then came an excellent fourth in the Sun Chariot, capping a great year; Was behind Spacious on thatrun but has scope to do more and is the model of consistency, not to mention that the stable has won 3 out of the last 4 runnings of this.
Three Moons: 2-y-o form was solid but made it to the track just twice last season, winning maiden at Folkestone before coming runner-up in a decent listed contest; Off the ttrack for a year, and will need the run.
VERDICT: A decent group race, even though it is much the poorer for her for the defection of dual Oaks winner Sariska. Spacious was in - front of STRAWBERRYDAQUIRI when third in the Sun Chariot last time, but I would have concerns over her needing the run (that tends to be the case) and her consistency (put in some bad efforts last season). Strawberrydaqiri may have been behind Spacious on that run but has scope to do more and is the model of consistency, not to mention that the stable has won 3 out of the last 4 runnings of this.
StanJames.com Dahlia Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies And Mares) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Strawberrydaquri (win)
Annabelle’s Charm: Won a listed race at Bath last summer but too keen in 2 of her 3 subsequent starts; Has a lot on the trouble the best of these.
Badiat Alzaman: Highly tried in 2009 (was with David Simcock) after winning early-season maiden at Warwick; Looks likely to be outclassed here on ratings.
Honimere: Won 3 times around this trip but not this level last year, best of them being an – all the way from the front handicap win here; Good fourth on the AW to return with but lot more to contend with here and will have it tough.
Moonlife: Won 2 out of her four runs last year, scoring nicely with a double last backend, including a listed race; Will need to step up to take a hand, but every chance she could do so.
Plaisterer: Landed 2 handicaps over 1m2f last year despite flashing her tail; Well held in listed race when last seen in November, though.
Spacious: Made really promising start to classic career with a in 2nd in the 1,000 Guineas and then 4th in the Coronation Stakes, where she was outstayed; Good efforts since, with her best one being her Windsor Forest win at the Royal Ascot meeting; Good 3rd behind Heaven Sent and Goldikova in the Falmouth; Showed that she can run on / off when running badly in Nassau Stakes; Was in - front of Strawberrydaquiri when third in the Sun Chariot last time, but I would have concerns over her needing the run (that tends to be the case) and her consistency (put in some bad efforts last season).
Strawberrydaquiri: Did nothing but progress last year, notching a 4 - timer with best and 3rd Listed win at Sandown under a heavy penalty, giving her a mark of 113; Then came an excellent fourth in the Sun Chariot, capping a great year; Was behind Spacious on thatrun but has scope to do more and is the model of consistency, not to mention that the stable has won 3 out of the last 4 runnings of this.
Three Moons: 2-y-o form was solid but made it to the track just twice last season, winning maiden at Folkestone before coming runner-up in a decent listed contest; Off the ttrack for a year, and will need the run.
VERDICT: A decent group race, even though it is much the poorer for her for the defection of dual Oaks winner Sariska. Spacious was in - front of STRAWBERRYDAQUIRI when third in the Sun Chariot last time, but I would have concerns over her needing the run (that tends to be the case) and her consistency (put in some bad efforts last season). Strawberrydaqiri may have been behind Spacious on that run but has scope to do more and is the model of consistency, not to mention that the stable has won 3 out of the last 4 runnings of this.
1,000 Guineas
Newmarket 3.05
StanJames.com 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £227,080
Picks: Music Show, Rumoush (e/w)
Blue Maiden: Built on promising debut second to Lady Pattern at Newbury when getting off the mark at Newmakret and taking major step forward when then finishing second behind Long Lashes in the Sweet Solera Stakes (foot problem final start so not worth assessing on that run); Ran well in Nell Gwyn but Music Show will be 3lbs better off and that vies her an awful lot to do.
Devoted To You: 3rd behind subsequent Group 3 winner Cabaret and unraced since Rahaya Cass on 1st 2 outings before running away with Galway maiden by 9 lengths; Been making steady process since, and seeing how she has had a run already (better than bare for of that, rider put up overweight; ground soft), will be no surprise to see her show prominently here.
Distinctive: Impressive Redcar maiden winner and same result when stepped up in class in Ayr Group 3; form of that race had doubts over it in the shape of draw bias towards her side (Lowther second Beyond Desire 1st of her Group in fourth) and her runs in the Rockfel and Nell Gwyn give her a lot to make up here.
Gile Na Greine: Looked out of her depth at Group 1 level when fifth in the Moyglare and looked like she already needed further than this when staying on but not really threatening at Dundalk.
Habbiybib: Impressive winner of Albany Stakes at Royal Meeting, beating many subsequent winners in the process; Didn’t exactly do badly when 2nd to Misheer in Cherry Hinton Stakes and reportedly had ringworm last 2 year old start; Started back on right track when coming second in Fred Darling and has to improve again; Trip not a problem from where I’m standing.
Hibaayeb: Improved all the time and is still rather unexposed on the basis of her 4 runs as a 2 year old, which included a Fillies’ Mile win on her last start as a 2 year old; Not much wrong with that although switch of yard raises slight concern and no certainty to uphold form with number of horses.
Principal Role: Blew the start and recovered in fine style to win a Yarmouth maiden, her only run so far; Has a lot to find on her run her last time, when quickly fading at business end of things when behind Music Show last time.
Lady Darshaan: Built up some good group form to her name, staying on well at the end of the Cherry Hinton Stakes and stepped up miles on that when an unlucky second in the Fillies Mile (struck on nose when laying down a challenge); If she were to show best of her form, as good a chance as anything.
Misheer: Blasted the field to pieces on debut before gutting out listed race win; Then had good spell in Group 2 company since, coming 2nd behind Jealous Again in Queen Mary Stakes before blistering the field in Cherry Hinton Stakes; Blazed a trial and flattened out in Flying Childers Stakes but that not true running, and ran on strongly to nap Lady Of The Desert next time out (behind Special Duty): Threw away the race by pulling too hard when fourth last time but held on that and didn’t stay anyway.
Music Show: Was very progressive as a 2 year old, winning 3 out of her four starts including the Rockfel Stakes and confirmed that promise when giving weight and a beating to Blue Maiden last time over 6f here; Came from some way back and really stayed on, so 1m will suit and has to be taken seriously here with Ryan Moore a bonus on board.
Nuture: Progressive maiden with Richard Hannon last season, leading all the way into the final 100 yards before being nailed by Timepiece in a listed contest; Would need to really improve on that to be competitive.
Pipette: Hard to know whether she actually improved on her listed third when winning easily on her season reappearance at Kempton; Likely to come on again but all her form needs improving on.
Pollenator: Took time to get to her best as a 2 year old but showed what she really could do when winning 7f maiden and more importantly May Hill Stakes on her final start; That form good, but reasons for thinking she could be overturned by the 2 she finished in front last year.
Puff: Won impressively on the AW 1st time out; Form of that race really been working out well with the 2nd winning by 7 lengths next time and then winning a listed race at Deauville; Her 4th in the Lowther was a good run and so was her run in the Chevley Park; Improved on both when landing Fred Darling last time, and by no means out of it.
Rumoush: Impeccably-bred filly (half-sister to Ghanaati and Mawatheeq) who made a promising winning debut over 1m at Lingfield last November; Made a very impressive winning debut over this course in the Fielden Stakes (1m1f) and should be in the shake up on that evidence, not to mention having the edge in stamina and fitness, which could be crucial.
Sent From Heaven: Has done nothing wrong so far, especially when landing a Group 3 event at Goodwood, and although she ran perfectly fine race in Fillies’ Mile (swished tail), could be left behind on that evidence.
Seta: Well-regarded and romped home on debut by 7 lengths; Disappointing in May Hill Stakes but better than that result of that form (probably suffered from immaturity and being unable to sustain a challenge); No surprise if she were to reverse form from that but still has a lot to do on what she has archived so far, even allowing for the fact that she will improve massively for an extra year.
Special Duty: Very worthy favourite on the basis of her high class 2 year old form, where she won the Chevley Park Stakes in good style, to add to her Prix Robert Papin win and excellent Prix Morny second; Needed the run on ground too soft on her reappearance run but that didn’t answer the question of whether she would stay, which is a big one; Arguably best horse in race.
VERDICT: As tricky a classic as we could get all year, highlighted by the fact that Pipette, Seta, Special Duty Blue Maiden, Distinctive, Habaayib, Hibaayeb, Jacqueline Quest, Lady Darshaan, Misheer, Music Show, Pollenator, Puff and Sent From Heaven have raced against each other in multiple races. Special Duty is the obvious place to start, and it’s a very good thing that she’s had a run. She’ll take all the beating, but she has stamina questions to answer and that’s a big worry. Even though Seta will be much, much better as a 3 – year old, she’s still under-priced on what she’s achieved so far. Pollenator could do really well here but it’s hard to know whether she’ll have made enough progress to keep the likes of Seta off. In all of this, the one horse that has been badly overlooked is MSUIC SHOW, who showed that she had trained on when winning the Nell Gwyn, giving 3lbs and a beating to Bleu Maiden, having come from way back. Her race – fitness could be crucial and she actually looks pretty good on the basis of her two runs, in a race where a lot of horses have questions over them. The other is RUMOUSH, who has won both her starts, has scope for progress,. Will be fit, and is bred for the job, so on that alone has more going for her than most.
StanJames.com 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3YO only)
Winner £227,080
Picks: Music Show, Rumoush (e/w)
Blue Maiden: Built on promising debut second to Lady Pattern at Newbury when getting off the mark at Newmakret and taking major step forward when then finishing second behind Long Lashes in the Sweet Solera Stakes (foot problem final start so not worth assessing on that run); Ran well in Nell Gwyn but Music Show will be 3lbs better off and that vies her an awful lot to do.
Devoted To You: 3rd behind subsequent Group 3 winner Cabaret and unraced since Rahaya Cass on 1st 2 outings before running away with Galway maiden by 9 lengths; Been making steady process since, and seeing how she has had a run already (better than bare for of that, rider put up overweight; ground soft), will be no surprise to see her show prominently here.
Distinctive: Impressive Redcar maiden winner and same result when stepped up in class in Ayr Group 3; form of that race had doubts over it in the shape of draw bias towards her side (Lowther second Beyond Desire 1st of her Group in fourth) and her runs in the Rockfel and Nell Gwyn give her a lot to make up here.
Gile Na Greine: Looked out of her depth at Group 1 level when fifth in the Moyglare and looked like she already needed further than this when staying on but not really threatening at Dundalk.
Habbiybib: Impressive winner of Albany Stakes at Royal Meeting, beating many subsequent winners in the process; Didn’t exactly do badly when 2nd to Misheer in Cherry Hinton Stakes and reportedly had ringworm last 2 year old start; Started back on right track when coming second in Fred Darling and has to improve again; Trip not a problem from where I’m standing.
Hibaayeb: Improved all the time and is still rather unexposed on the basis of her 4 runs as a 2 year old, which included a Fillies’ Mile win on her last start as a 2 year old; Not much wrong with that although switch of yard raises slight concern and no certainty to uphold form with number of horses.
Principal Role: Blew the start and recovered in fine style to win a Yarmouth maiden, her only run so far; Has a lot to find on her run her last time, when quickly fading at business end of things when behind Music Show last time.
Lady Darshaan: Built up some good group form to her name, staying on well at the end of the Cherry Hinton Stakes and stepped up miles on that when an unlucky second in the Fillies Mile (struck on nose when laying down a challenge); If she were to show best of her form, as good a chance as anything.
Misheer: Blasted the field to pieces on debut before gutting out listed race win; Then had good spell in Group 2 company since, coming 2nd behind Jealous Again in Queen Mary Stakes before blistering the field in Cherry Hinton Stakes; Blazed a trial and flattened out in Flying Childers Stakes but that not true running, and ran on strongly to nap Lady Of The Desert next time out (behind Special Duty): Threw away the race by pulling too hard when fourth last time but held on that and didn’t stay anyway.
Music Show: Was very progressive as a 2 year old, winning 3 out of her four starts including the Rockfel Stakes and confirmed that promise when giving weight and a beating to Blue Maiden last time over 6f here; Came from some way back and really stayed on, so 1m will suit and has to be taken seriously here with Ryan Moore a bonus on board.
Nuture: Progressive maiden with Richard Hannon last season, leading all the way into the final 100 yards before being nailed by Timepiece in a listed contest; Would need to really improve on that to be competitive.
Pipette: Hard to know whether she actually improved on her listed third when winning easily on her season reappearance at Kempton; Likely to come on again but all her form needs improving on.
Pollenator: Took time to get to her best as a 2 year old but showed what she really could do when winning 7f maiden and more importantly May Hill Stakes on her final start; That form good, but reasons for thinking she could be overturned by the 2 she finished in front last year.
Puff: Won impressively on the AW 1st time out; Form of that race really been working out well with the 2nd winning by 7 lengths next time and then winning a listed race at Deauville; Her 4th in the Lowther was a good run and so was her run in the Chevley Park; Improved on both when landing Fred Darling last time, and by no means out of it.
Rumoush: Impeccably-bred filly (half-sister to Ghanaati and Mawatheeq) who made a promising winning debut over 1m at Lingfield last November; Made a very impressive winning debut over this course in the Fielden Stakes (1m1f) and should be in the shake up on that evidence, not to mention having the edge in stamina and fitness, which could be crucial.
Sent From Heaven: Has done nothing wrong so far, especially when landing a Group 3 event at Goodwood, and although she ran perfectly fine race in Fillies’ Mile (swished tail), could be left behind on that evidence.
Seta: Well-regarded and romped home on debut by 7 lengths; Disappointing in May Hill Stakes but better than that result of that form (probably suffered from immaturity and being unable to sustain a challenge); No surprise if she were to reverse form from that but still has a lot to do on what she has archived so far, even allowing for the fact that she will improve massively for an extra year.
Special Duty: Very worthy favourite on the basis of her high class 2 year old form, where she won the Chevley Park Stakes in good style, to add to her Prix Robert Papin win and excellent Prix Morny second; Needed the run on ground too soft on her reappearance run but that didn’t answer the question of whether she would stay, which is a big one; Arguably best horse in race.
VERDICT: As tricky a classic as we could get all year, highlighted by the fact that Pipette, Seta, Special Duty Blue Maiden, Distinctive, Habaayib, Hibaayeb, Jacqueline Quest, Lady Darshaan, Misheer, Music Show, Pollenator, Puff and Sent From Heaven have raced against each other in multiple races. Special Duty is the obvious place to start, and it’s a very good thing that she’s had a run. She’ll take all the beating, but she has stamina questions to answer and that’s a big worry. Even though Seta will be much, much better as a 3 – year old, she’s still under-priced on what she’s achieved so far. Pollenator could do really well here but it’s hard to know whether she’ll have made enough progress to keep the likes of Seta off. In all of this, the one horse that has been badly overlooked is MSUIC SHOW, who showed that she had trained on when winning the Nell Gwyn, giving 3lbs and a beating to Bleu Maiden, having come from way back. Her race – fitness could be crucial and she actually looks pretty good on the basis of her two runs, in a race where a lot of horses have questions over them. The other is RUMOUSH, who has won both her starts, has scope for progress,. Will be fit, and is bred for the job, so on that alone has more going for her than most.
Saturday 1 May 2010
Palace House Stakes
3.40 Newmarket
StanJames.com Palace House Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Amour Propre (win)
Total Gallery: Did all his good work towards the end of last season, his biggest win coming in Prix L’Abbaye and running a very good race with the world’s best in Hong Kong when last seen; Has a stiff task trying to defy and 8lbs penalty though.
Armour Propre: Improved in leaps and bounds since disappointing 2 yr old debut at Sandown, beating useful types in Deposer and Lucky Leigh in maiden and novice stakes victories before topping that off with all the way win in Cornwallis stakes; Confirmed promise with good when in competitive renewal of this race last year, being handy in the middle and speeding away at the line; Bombed in King’s Place and may yet still take a high rank in this on the basis of an excellent Nunthorpe Fifth.
Arganil: Tough front runner with good strike rate on AW, as good as ever when winning listed race at Lingfield last time; This is a hot contest though, and will need to find some improvement.
Blue Jack: Won 4 times last year for William Muir and gave impression that switch to Dascombe yard may even have improved him judged on impressive win last time; Looked every bit like a Group horse that day, sweeping home off a fast pace, and could well be in the shakeup.
Bonnie Charlie: Rounded off his 3-y-o campaign with 2 good efforts, coming fourth in a Group 3 along the way; Has to prove he retains pace for this trip.
Borderlescott: Never run a bad race, and proved himself better than ever last year when campaigned mainly at this trip, winning the Nunthorpe and placed in Temple and the Abbaye; Favoured by weights (didn’t get run behind Total Gallery an L’Abbaye)and should be on pemsies, although does tend to need the run now.
Elnawin: Lightly raced colt that still has plenty of ability, as shown by his 2 seconds this season; Was arguably the best handicapped horse in the race when second behind Blue Jack; 7lbs better off but that rival still improving, and has a tough task anyway.
Equiano: Came up well short at Group 1 level last year after finishing second in Abernant Stakes (which he won this year); He wasn’t totally disgraced on those efforts but this is tougher; Yard are happy with him though.
Rowe Park: Smart performer but hasn’t won on grass since his Group 3 win in 2007 and was behind a few of these last time out; Not exactly favoured at these weights.
Spin Cycle: Had some smart juvenile form, on which he improved to win with at Musslebrugh in May; Hasn’t exactly had things go his way since and although he ran well towards the end of last season, this even if returning at best today.
Sole Power: Promising at 2 yrs, placed in listed event at the Curragh and sales race at York before landing short odds in Dundalk maiden; 3 year olds have good record in this and his impressive win on reappearance gives hope; Not stupid choice as outsider.
VERDICT: Total Gallery is probably the best horse in this field based on his L’Abbaye win, and his rather overlooked sixth in Hong Kong amongst the world’s best. However an 8lbs penalty on his season reappearance makes him hard to fancy here. Borderlescott should go well and is favoured at the weights, but that was the story last season, and he didn’t win. It would be no surprise to see him come home in front but he tends to need the run. Sole Power will be of interest here given his progressive profile and the good record of 3 year old’s in recent years, while Blue Jack looked a sprinter to keep on the right side at Newbury. However, AMOUR PROPRE is better than the bare for of his 2 Group 1 runs last season and could still take a high rank in the spring game, so he gets my vote.
StanJames.com Palace House Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO plus)
Winner £36,900
Pick: Amour Propre (win)
Total Gallery: Did all his good work towards the end of last season, his biggest win coming in Prix L’Abbaye and running a very good race with the world’s best in Hong Kong when last seen; Has a stiff task trying to defy and 8lbs penalty though.
Armour Propre: Improved in leaps and bounds since disappointing 2 yr old debut at Sandown, beating useful types in Deposer and Lucky Leigh in maiden and novice stakes victories before topping that off with all the way win in Cornwallis stakes; Confirmed promise with good when in competitive renewal of this race last year, being handy in the middle and speeding away at the line; Bombed in King’s Place and may yet still take a high rank in this on the basis of an excellent Nunthorpe Fifth.
Arganil: Tough front runner with good strike rate on AW, as good as ever when winning listed race at Lingfield last time; This is a hot contest though, and will need to find some improvement.
Blue Jack: Won 4 times last year for William Muir and gave impression that switch to Dascombe yard may even have improved him judged on impressive win last time; Looked every bit like a Group horse that day, sweeping home off a fast pace, and could well be in the shakeup.
Bonnie Charlie: Rounded off his 3-y-o campaign with 2 good efforts, coming fourth in a Group 3 along the way; Has to prove he retains pace for this trip.
Borderlescott: Never run a bad race, and proved himself better than ever last year when campaigned mainly at this trip, winning the Nunthorpe and placed in Temple and the Abbaye; Favoured by weights (didn’t get run behind Total Gallery an L’Abbaye)and should be on pemsies, although does tend to need the run now.
Elnawin: Lightly raced colt that still has plenty of ability, as shown by his 2 seconds this season; Was arguably the best handicapped horse in the race when second behind Blue Jack; 7lbs better off but that rival still improving, and has a tough task anyway.
Equiano: Came up well short at Group 1 level last year after finishing second in Abernant Stakes (which he won this year); He wasn’t totally disgraced on those efforts but this is tougher; Yard are happy with him though.
Rowe Park: Smart performer but hasn’t won on grass since his Group 3 win in 2007 and was behind a few of these last time out; Not exactly favoured at these weights.
Spin Cycle: Had some smart juvenile form, on which he improved to win with at Musslebrugh in May; Hasn’t exactly had things go his way since and although he ran well towards the end of last season, this even if returning at best today.
Sole Power: Promising at 2 yrs, placed in listed event at the Curragh and sales race at York before landing short odds in Dundalk maiden; 3 year olds have good record in this and his impressive win on reappearance gives hope; Not stupid choice as outsider.
VERDICT: Total Gallery is probably the best horse in this field based on his L’Abbaye win, and his rather overlooked sixth in Hong Kong amongst the world’s best. However an 8lbs penalty on his season reappearance makes him hard to fancy here. Borderlescott should go well and is favoured at the weights, but that was the story last season, and he didn’t win. It would be no surprise to see him come home in front but he tends to need the run. Sole Power will be of interest here given his progressive profile and the good record of 3 year old’s in recent years, while Blue Jack looked a sprinter to keep on the right side at Newbury. However, AMOUR PROPRE is better than the bare for of his 2 Group 1 runs last season and could still take a high rank in the spring game, so he gets my vote.
Jockey Club Stakes
2.35 Newmarket
StanJames.com Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £56,770
Pick: Jukebox Jury (win)
Jukebox Jury: Made giant strides last season when winning the Grand Prix De Deauville and the Preis Von Europa, before finishing a very close second in the Canadian International; Those efforts put him miles ahead of the field and although he ran badly in Meydan and visor is on, he should still hold a very big chance, stripping much fitter for that run.
Halicarnassus: Tough as nuts horse who got yet another win in Dubai with a valiant all-the-way success over 1½m at Meydan in February; Something amiss next time but well ebaten when last seen.
Claremont: Interesting that Halicarnassus had him held at one time but he looks much the better of the pair; 2 respectable efforts in Group company give him a major chance here; Didn’t look easiest of rides when second in John Porter last time though.
Drill Sergeant; Although consistent last year, he came up short at group / listed level and has been below that form this year, so hard to see a win here.
Nanton: A remarkably consistent horse who has improved for coming off a strong pace in a big field handicaps, and shouldn’t be discounted here.
VERDICT: Not really a strong Group 2 by any means and it looks a good opportunity for JUKEBOX JURY to put a disappointing effort in the Sheema Classic behind him.
StanJames.com Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4YO plus)
Winner £56,770
Pick: Jukebox Jury (win)
Jukebox Jury: Made giant strides last season when winning the Grand Prix De Deauville and the Preis Von Europa, before finishing a very close second in the Canadian International; Those efforts put him miles ahead of the field and although he ran badly in Meydan and visor is on, he should still hold a very big chance, stripping much fitter for that run.
Halicarnassus: Tough as nuts horse who got yet another win in Dubai with a valiant all-the-way success over 1½m at Meydan in February; Something amiss next time but well ebaten when last seen.
Claremont: Interesting that Halicarnassus had him held at one time but he looks much the better of the pair; 2 respectable efforts in Group company give him a major chance here; Didn’t look easiest of rides when second in John Porter last time though.
Drill Sergeant; Although consistent last year, he came up short at group / listed level and has been below that form this year, so hard to see a win here.
Nanton: A remarkably consistent horse who has improved for coming off a strong pace in a big field handicaps, and shouldn’t be discounted here.
VERDICT: Not really a strong Group 2 by any means and it looks a good opportunity for JUKEBOX JURY to put a disappointing effort in the Sheema Classic behind him.
Newmarket Guineas Undercard
4.05
Belucky At StanJames.com Handicap (Class 2) (3YO only)
Winner £12,952
Picks: Horseradish (win), Moinesur Joe (e/w)
Swilly Ferry should go well here, and Racy shouldn’t be too far away, but I can’t be opposing HORSERADISH if he gets 4lbs and upwards from everything else in the race. MOINSEUR JOE will like the step up to 6f and isn’t too badly handicapped on his best.
5.25
Lastchancetowin At StanJames.com Handicap (Class 2) (3YO only)
Winner £12,952
Picks; Rumool, Oasis Dancer (e/w)
2 against the field are OAISS DANCER and RUMOOL, slight preference for the latter with Ryan Moore booked having had a run already this season, and a form boost for that.
Belucky At StanJames.com Handicap (Class 2) (3YO only)
Winner £12,952
Picks: Horseradish (win), Moinesur Joe (e/w)
Swilly Ferry should go well here, and Racy shouldn’t be too far away, but I can’t be opposing HORSERADISH if he gets 4lbs and upwards from everything else in the race. MOINSEUR JOE will like the step up to 6f and isn’t too badly handicapped on his best.
5.25
Lastchancetowin At StanJames.com Handicap (Class 2) (3YO only)
Winner £12,952
Picks; Rumool, Oasis Dancer (e/w)
2 against the field are OAISS DANCER and RUMOOL, slight preference for the latter with Ryan Moore booked having had a run already this season, and a form boost for that.
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